ipa08 - what predicts progression of mci to dementia [april 2008]
DESCRIPTION
This is an academic presentation given at IPA2008 re the predictors of progression of mild memory impairment to more severe impairment (dementia)TRANSCRIPT
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What Predicts Progression of MCI to Dementia?Quantitative and Qualitative Review of 53 Studies
Alex MitchellConsultant & Hon SnR Lecturer in Liaison Psychiatry, Leicester
IPA, Dublin 2008
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Introduction to Modelling Progression
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Modelling Progression on MCI-DementiaD
isea
se S
ever
ity
Time in YearsT4T0 T+8
30
Severe Dementia
Moderate Dementia
Mild Dementia
MCI
Healthy
23v24
20v21
11v12
MM
SE
0
T+12
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Modelling Progression on MCI-DementiaD
isea
se S
ever
ity
Time in YearsT4T0 T+8
30
Severe Dementia
Moderate Dementia
Mild Dementia
MCI
Healthy
23v24
20v21
11v12
MM
SE
0
T+12
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Modelling Progression on MCI-DementiaD
isea
se S
ever
ity
Time in YearsT4T0 T+8
30
MCI-ProgressiveModerate Risk
Severe Dementia
Moderate Dementia
Mild Dementia
MCI
Healthy
MCI-ProgressiveHigh Risk
23v24
20v21
11v12
MM
SE
0
T+12
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The Natural History of Dementia
Time in Years
30
MCI-ProgressiveModerate Risk
MCI-ProgressiveHigh Risk
MCI-RemitterLow Risk
MCI-StableLow Risk
23v24
20v21
11v12
MM
SE
0
T4T0 T+8 T+12
Dis
ease
Sev
erit
y
Severe Dementia
Moderate Dementia
Mild Dementia
MCI
Healthy
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Introduction to Predictors
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Types of Predictor
• Types– Pseudo-Predictor (Marker of disease severity)
• Marked Cognitive Difficulties• Poor function• Subjective memory problems
– Transient Predictor (effects early conversion only)– Reversible vs Non-Reversible– Biological (test) vs Clinical
• Outcomes– Mortality Predictor– Loss Function Predictor– Hospitalization– Remission/Recovery– Psychiatric Complications
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Classifying Predictors
Demographic
• Age• Gender• Education
Service Related
• Recruitment Setting• Education• Length of follow-up• Delay in diagnosis• Treatment• Size of study
Disease Related
• MCI Type• MCI Subtype
• Structural Imaging• Functional Imaging• CSF Studies• Genetic testing (ApoE4)• Cognitive Testing• Non-memory impairment• Depression/anxiety• Subjective Performance• Functional status
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Possible Predictors
Modifiable
• Delay in diagnosis• Treatment• Depression/anxiety
Non-Modifiable
• Age• Gender• MCI Type• MCI Subtype• Recruitment Setting• Education• Length of follow-up• Structural Imaging• Functional Imaging• CSF Studies• Genetic testing (ApoE4)• Cognitive Testing• Non-memory impairment• Subjective Performance• Functional status
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Disease Related Predictors
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Mayo Defn 1997/1999/2001 vs Non-Mayo
1. Subjective Memory complaint
2. Normal activities of daily living
3. Objective cognitive impairmentfor age
4. No dementia
1. Subjective Memory complaint
2. Normal activities of daily living
3. Objective cognitive impairmentfor age
4. No dementia
Winblad B, Palmer K, Kivipelto M, et al. Mild cognitive impairment—beyond controversies, towards a consensus: report of the International Working Group on Mild Cognitive Impairment. J Intern Med 2004;256:240–6.
Portet F, Ousset PJ, Visser PJ, Frisoni GB, Nobili F, Scheltens P, Vellas B, Touchon J . Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in medical practice: a critical review of the concept and new diagnostic procedure. Report of the MCI Working Group of the European Consortium on Alzheimer's Disease. Journal Of Neurology Neurosurgery And Psychiatry 2006;77 (6): 714-718 .
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010433AACD
102050CIND
026402CDR=0.5
2054111Partial MCI
1351246Classical MCI
Non-SpecialistSpecialist
Non-SpecialistSpecialist
Non-SpecialistSpecialistSettings=>
MCI to VaDMCI to ADMCI to DementiaOutcome=>
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4.7%(CI 4.3% to 5.2%)
4.5%(CI 4.0% to 5.1%)
5.5%(CI 4.9% to 6.2%)
3.6%(CI 3.3% to 3.8%)
3.1%(CI 2.8% to 3.4%)
5.9%(CI 5.3% to 6.5%)
All studies
Any Definition of MCI
Non-Mayo Definition
Mayo Definition
Any Definition of MCI
Non-Mayo Definition
Mayo Definition
Setting
Conversion to Alzheimer’s disease
Conversion toDementia
Studies conducted using the Mayo defn of MCIRR 1.9
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4.7%(CI 4.3% to 5.2%)
4.5%(CI 4.0% to 5.1%)
5.5%(CI 4.9% to 6.2%)
3.6%(CI 3.3% to 3.8%)
3.1%(CI 2.8% to 3.4%)
5.9%(CI 5.3% to 6.5%)
All studies
3.4%(CI 2.9% to 3.9%)
3.7%(CI 3.1% to 4.3%)
4.2%(CI 2.9% to 5.7%)
3.0%(CI 2.7% to 3.3%)
3.1%(CI 2.8% to 3.4%)
4.4%(CI 3.4% to 5.5%)
Community
6.5%(CI 5.8% to 7.2%)
6.9%(CI 5.7% to 8.1%)
6.0%(CI 5.3% to 6.8%)
6.7%(CI 5.9% to 7.5%)
No studies6.7%(CI 5.9% to 7.5%)
Specialist
Any Definition of MCI
Non-Mayo Definition
Mayo Definition
Any Definition of MCI
Non-Mayo Definition
Mayo Definition
Setting
Conversion to Alzheimer’s disease
Conversion to Dementia
Studies conducted in specialist settingsRR Dementia 2.2
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MCI Related Syndromes as Predictors
MCI
Questionable Dementia (CDR=0.5)
CIND
AAMI/AACD
Mild Functional Impairment
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Visser PJ, Verhey FRJ. Mild cognitive impairment as predictor forAlzheimer’s disease in clinical practice: effect of age and diagnostic criteria. Psychological Medicine (2008), 38, 113–122.
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Relatively low Risk
0.08
0.04
0.07
0.06
0.03
0.09
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.070
0.031
0.07
0.056
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
Classical MCI Partial MCI CDR=0.5 CIND AACD
AllSpecialist (Clinical) SettingsNon-Specialist (Population) Settings
17 12 5 9 4 5 10 4 2 2 4 46
Medium+Long Term Studies 3yrs+
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Non-Amnestic MCISingle Domain
Yes
Amnestic MCISingle Domain
Yes
Cognitive complaint
Not normal for age
Modest Objective Cognitive decline
Normal instrumental function
Yes
Amnestic MCI
MCI
Memory impaired? No
Non-Amnestic MCI
Single non-memorycognitive domain
impaired?
Memoryimpairment only? No
Non-Amnestic MCIMultiple Domain
No
Amnestic MCIMultiple Domain
Petersen: J Int Med, 20040.37 RR in those with non-memory MCIvs with aMCI and multi-domain MCI.
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Effect of Drugs
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Probabilityof not
convertingto AD
Probabilityof not
convertingto AD
Time on MCI study (days)Time on MCI study (days)0 6m 12m 18m 24m 30m 36m0 6m 12m 18m 24m 30m 36m
DonepezilPlaceboDonepezilPlacebo
1 yr1 yr6 mo6 mo
P=0.004
P=0.04
Petersen et al (NEJM) n=769 3yrs
Donepezil
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Absolute change in ventricular volume/year
Rivastigmine
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Galantaminein MCI
Rate of change of brain atrophy over 24 months
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Effect of Age
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y = 0.0464x + 3.7916
y = 0.2039x - 6.7417
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0
ADDementia
Age at Recruitment
Rate of Conversion
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Effect of Genetic Factors
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0.4
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.2
Prob. Not converting to AD
Time on MCI study (days)
4002000 600 800 1,000 1,200
ApoE4 negative
P<0.0001ApoE4 positive
Apo E4 Status
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Effect of CSF
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Alzheimer and CSF Phospho-Tau
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Andreasen N, Vanmechelen E, Vanderstichele H, Davidssson P, Blennow K. CSF levels of total tau, phospho tau and Ab42 predicts development of Alzheimer disease in patients with mild cognitive impairment. Acta Neurol Scand 2003: 107 (Suppl. 179): 47–51.
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AD vs HC – P-Tau181
1541689852
833576257Test -ve
708113595Test +ve
MCIAD
Sensitivity69.8%
PPV 84.0%
Specificity83.6%
NPV 69.1%
Mitchell (2005)Meta-analysis
N=14x
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MCI vs Controls – P-Tau181&231
515153362
17712156Test -ve
33832306Test +ve
No MCIMCI
Sensitivity84.5%
PPV 90.5%
Specificity79.1%
NPV 68.4%
Mitchell (2008)Meta-analysis
N=11x
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CSF MCI stable vs MCI progressive?
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MCI-prog vs stable – P-Tau181&231
360211149
15213319Test -ve
20878130Test +ve
MCI-StableMCI-Prog
Sensitivity87.2%
PPV 62.5%
Specificity63.0%
NPV 87.5%
Mitchell (2008)Meta-analysis
N=5x
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Summary
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APOE ε4 alleleTschanz et al (2006)
Sarazin et al (2007)
APOE ε4 alleleLee et al (2006)
Daly et al (2000)
Albert et al (2007)
Executive cognitive deficitsDeCarli et al (2004)
Convit et al 2000
Abstinence from alcoholSolfrizzi et al (2007)
Solfrizzi et al (2004)
functional impairment; previous strokeDi Carlo et al (2007)
Verbal fluency deficits; Behaviour at baseline; NPI apathy scoreFeldman et al (2007)
Functional impairmentTuokko et al (2003)
Wentzel et al (2001)
Stoub et al (2005)
(Grober et al 2000)
Bozoki et al (2001)
Attention deficitsDevanand et al (2007)
Aggarwal et al (2005)
Morris et al (2001)
Tyas SL (2006)
Language difficulties, visuospatial deficits. no of medicationsStorandt et al (2002)
Functional impairmentsZanetti et al (2006)
Decision making; AnxietyPalmer et al (2007)
Marcos et al (2006)
APOE ε4 alleleFleisher et al (2007)
DepressionGabryelewicz et al (2006)
Jack et al (2004)
Tabert et al (2006)
Informant reports of memory problemsFisk et al (2003)
CSF T-tau; Aβ42;rCBF in parietalHansson et al (2007)
CSF T-tau; P-Tau; Aβ42; APOE ε4 alleleHansson et al (2006)
fMRI scanningMiller et al (2007)
Temporal trendBusse et al (2006)
Ganguli et al (2004)
Temporal trendVisser et al (2006)
OthersFunctionalImaging
StructuralImaging
EducationMemory(episodic)
GlobalCognition
Gender AgeStudy
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Possible Predictors
Modest (RR 1.6-2.0)
• Age• Gender• Education• Genetic testing (ApoE4)• MCI Type• Subjective Performance• Structural Imaging• Functional Imaging
Weak (RR1.1-1.5)
• Treatment• Gender• Recruitment Setting• Education• Size of study
Strong (RR 2.1+)
• Cognitive Testing (P)• Functional status (P)
• MCI Subtype• CSF Studies
• Recruitment Setting (P)• Length of follow-up
Unknown
• Delay in diagnosis/Rx• Depression/anxiety
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DESCRIPA Study – Verhey, Visser et al
• 15 Countries, 24 Centres, n=881– 1yr = 753 2yr = 688 3 yr = 278 4 yr = ??– MRI data 372 CSF Data 182
• 2 Year– Progression to AD in 19%– No dementia in 78%
• Predictor Bank– Recall, MMSE, Fluency, Trails– MTA, Tau, AB– Age– BMI, alcohol
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DESCRIPA - Description
• Subjects were on average 71 years old
• Mean MMSE score of 27.1.
• 50% of the patients were self-referred, 30% were referred by general practitioners, and 20% by other physicians.
• Isolated memory impairment was seen in 63% of the subjects, isolated impairment in a non-memory domain in 9%, impairments in multiple domains including memory in 22% of the subjects, impairments in multiple domains excluding memory in 6% of the subjects.
Alzheimer's and DementiaVolume 1, Issue 1, Supplement 1, July 2005, Pages 102-103
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DESCRIPA, ROC Ranking
• Delayed recall 0.80• ABeta/T-Tau ratio 0.76• MMSE 0.74• Verbal Fluency 0.72• MTA 0.71• Total and P-Tau 0.69• Age 0.67• TMT B 0.68• Function 0.65• BMI 0.61• Apo E 0.57• Alcohol 0.55
• Age+MMSE+Neurop 0.76• +function 0.81• +ApoE 0.83• +MRI 0.83• +CSF 0.87
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Extras
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AD vs MCI – P-Tau181&231 (extrapolated)
1212362852
31356257Test -ve
901306595Test +ve
MCIAD
Sensitivity69.8%
PPV 66.0%
Specificity15.5%
NPV 17.9%
Prevalence42%
Mitchell (2008)Meta-analysis
N=5x
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Credits / Acknowledgments
For more slides www.psycho-oncology.info/slides
Alex J Mitchell © 2008