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IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon Crude Oil Export Policy Debate March 2014

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Page 1: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

IPAA Leaders in Industry

Luncheon

Crude Oil Export Policy Debate

March 2014

Page 2: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

Forward-Looking Statements

Except for historical information contained herein, the statements, charts and graphs in this

presentation are forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor Provisions

of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements and the

business prospects of Pioneer are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause

Pioneer's actual results in future periods to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, volatility of commodity prices, product

supply and demand, competition, the ability to obtain environmental and other permits and the

timing thereof, other government regulation or action, the ability to obtain approvals from third

parties and negotiate agreements with third parties on mutually acceptable terms, completion of

planned divestitures, litigation, the costs and results of drilling and operations, availability of

equipment, services, resources and personnel required to complete the Company's operating

activities, access to and availability of transportation, processing, fractionation and refining

facilities, Pioneer's ability to replace reserves, implement its business plans or complete its

development activities as scheduled, access to and cost of capital, the financial strength of

counterparties to Pioneer's credit facility and derivative contracts and the purchasers of Pioneer's

oil, NGL and gas production, uncertainties about estimates of reserves and resource potential and

the ability to add proved reserves in the future, the assumptions underlying production forecasts,

quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of

climate change, the risks associated with the ownership and operation of the Company’s industrial

sand mining and oilfield services businesses and acts of war or terrorism. These and other risks are

described in Pioneer's 10-K and 10-Q Reports and other filings with the Securities and Exchange

Commission. In addition, Pioneer may be subject to currently unforeseen risks that may have a

materially adverse impact on it. Pioneer undertakes no duty to publicly update these statements

except as required by law.

2

Page 3: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

Pioneer – Large Independent U.S. E&P Company

3

Eagle Ford Shale

West Panhandle

Raton Hugoton

Northern Spraberry/Wolfcamp

Operating Areas

Southern Wolfcamp JV Area

Dallas Headquarters

Page 4: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

Resource-focused strategy, with activity

concentrated in 3 of the most active U.S. fields

Best performing energy stock in S&P 500

since 2009

Second largest oil producer in Texas

Operating in core Spraberry/Wolfcamp asset

since early 1980s

– PXD holds ~900,000 acres in

Spraberry/Wolfcamp

– Largest producer in Spraberry/Wolfcamp with

31 rigs operating (20 horizontal and 11 vertical)

and 7,000+ producing wells

– Preeminent, low-cost operator benefitting from

vertical integration strategy

Attractive derivative positions protect margins

Strong investment grade financial position

Pioneer At A Glance

1) November 2013 IHS data, gross reported oil and wet gas

Spraberry/Wolfcamp Gross

Production By Operator

(MBOEPD)1

Top U.S. Fields By Rig Count1

(Pioneer Operated Count in Green – 40 rigs)

Total Enterprise Value ($B) $30

2014 Drilling Capex ($B) $3.0

2013 Production (MBOEPD) 161

2013 Reserves (BBOE) 0.8

2013 Reserves + Resource (BBOE) >11.0

4

1) Baker Hughes Rig Count (2/14/14) and PXD Internal

319

273

216189

176

80 7855 53 46 43 42

30

93

51

3728 27

20 19 18 16 15

Page 5: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

Primary Sources of Domestic Oil Growth

5

Deepwater

GOM

Bakken

Niobrara

Permian

Eagle Ford

Page 6: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

ducti

on (

MM

BO

PD

)

Heavy Medium Light Condensate

U.S. Production Forecast by Grade

6 Source: Turner, Mason & Company

History Forecast

Light

Medium

Heavy

Page 7: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-14

U.S. Rig Activity Since 1990

7

U.S. Oil Rig Count

U.S. Gas Rig Count

Page 8: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Pro

ducti

on (

BO

EPD

)

Spraberry/Wolfcamp Production History

From 2009 to 2012, production growth primarily attributable to increased vertical activity

Post 2012, production growth expected to be driven by horizontal activity

Monthly

Production

Source: IHS Energy through October 2013 for the Spraberry, Credo East, Garden City South and Lin Fields

Includes Vertical and Horizontal Wells

8

Spraberry/Wolfcamp production has

increased ~400,000 BOEPD since 2009

Page 9: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Spraberry/Wolfcamp Rig Count

Source: Rig count data provided by Baker Hughes, 2/14/14

Vertical Rigs

Horizontal Rigs

Counties: Andrews, Borden, Crockett, Dawson, Ector, Gaines, Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Martin,

Midland, Mitchell, Reagan, Schleicher, Scurry, Sterling, Tom Green and Upton

96% Vertical Rigs 62% Vertical Rigs

4% Horizontal Rigs

38% Horizontal Rigs

(up from 23% in early 2013)

9

Page 10: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

Gro

ss D

aily P

roducti

on (

MM

BO

ED

)Spraberry/Wolfcamp Horizontal Drilling Production Growth Profile

1) Potential impediments to achieving this forecast include oil price, capital, infrastructure (Midland and oil field) and people

2) Assumes industry rig count ramps up from ~65 horizontal rigs in 2013 to ~120 rigs per year in 2018 and thereafter (excludes Pioneer’s portion)

3) Includes royalties and joint interest partner’s share of production in southern Wolfcamp

Other Operators2

(~200 Independent Operators)

Pioneer2,3

Assumes Pioneer’s rig count increases from 24 rigs in

early 2014 to 50+ rigs in 2018 and thereafter

10

1

Page 11: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

TPH’s Industry Permian Basin Production Growth Forecast

Source: IR Presentations, Drillinginfo, RigData, TPH Research; 2-stream; Forecast from 2H 2013

TPH’s Total Permian Production Forecast: 4.8 MMBOEPD by 2025

11

Page 12: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

Midland Basin: Stacked Play Potential

“Delta log R” (excess electrical resistance)

Red intervals indicate hydrocarbons

Petrophysical analysis indicates significantly more oil in place

in the Wolfcamp and Spraberry Shale intervals in the Midland

Basin compared to other major U.S. shale oil plays

200 f

t Eagle Ford

Condensate

Barnett

Combo Marcellus

Barnett

Miss Lime

Woodford

Wolfcamp D

“Cline”

Wolfcamp A

Wolfcamp B

L. Spraberry

Shale

M. Spraberry

Shale

Clear Fork

Bakken

Jo Mill Shale

Midland Basin

Source: PXD internal

Dean

Wolfcamp C

U. Spraberry

Atoka

Strawn

Niobrara

12

Page 13: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

GC

Market

Wink

Seaw

ay

Keysto

ne S

outh

Permian

Basin

Cushing

Crude Pipeline Capacity to Gulf Coast

13

Operator Origin Destination Name Capacity Time Frame

Plains Permian Cushing Basin 450,000

Oxy Permian Cushing Centurion 75,000

Sunoco Permian GC West Texas Gulf 400,000

Kinder Morgan Permian El Paso Wink 120,000

Magellan Permian GC Longhorn 225,000

Total 1,270,000

Magellan Permian GC Longhorn-add 50,000 3Q 2014

Magellan Permian GC BridgeTex 278,000 3Q 2014

Plains Permian Corpus Cactus 200,000 2Q 2015

Sunoco Permian GC Permian Express II 200,000 2Q 2015

Operator Origin Destination Name Capacity Time Frame

Enbridge/Enterprise Cushing GC Seaway 400,000

Transcanada Cushing GC Keystone South 300,000

Enbridge/Enterprise Cushing GC Seaway-add 450,000 2Q 2014

Transcanada Cushing GC Keystone South-add 530,000 3Q-4Q 2014Planned

Permian Basin Crude Takeaway Capacity

Current

Cushing to Gulf Coast Pipeline Takeaway

Planned

Current

Page 14: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

$(40)

$(30)

$(20)

$(10)

$-

$10

$20

$30

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

WT

I Pri

ce D

iscount

to B

rent

($/B

BL)

14

Brent – WTI Price Differential

Source: EIA

Relationship

broke in

January 2011

($30/bbl)

($23/bbl)

($17/bbl)

Page 15: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

U.S. Condensate Production

Source: Turner, Mason & Company

U.S. Condensate Production is Expected to reach 1.3 MMBPD by year end 2020

15

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

History Forecast

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Condensa

te P

roducti

on (

MBPD

)

All Other

Utica

OK/KS

Niobrara

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Williston Basin

~875 MBPD

Page 16: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

PXD Eagle Ford Condensate Differential vs Brent

16 Source: PXD Internal

($36)

($33)

($30)

($27)

($24)

($21)

($18)

($15)

($12)

($9)

($6)

($3)

$0

$3Jan-1

0

Mar-

10

May-1

0

Jul-

10

Sep-1

0

Nov-1

0

Jan-1

1

Mar-

11

May-1

1

Jul-

11

Sep-1

1

Nov-1

1

Jan-1

2

Mar-

12

May-1

2

Jul-

12

Sep-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-

13

May-1

3

Jul-

13

Sep-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

PXD Eagle Ford Condensate Diff to Brent

PXD Eagle Ford Condensate Price Differential to Brent

$/b

bl

Page 17: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Increased U.S. Petroleum Product Exports Over 10 Years

17

U.S. Petroleum Product Exports (million barrels per day)

Other

LPG

Residual Fuel

Gasoline

Coke

Kerosene &

Distillates

Source: EIA

Other includes pentane plus, gasoline blending components and other products

Product exports reached

4.3 MM in 12/2013

Kerosene &

distillates

driving growth

Page 18: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

10 Years of Increased U.S. Petroleum Product Exports

18 Source: EIA

Asia

Other

Latin

America

Europe

Canada

Africa

U.S. Petroleum Product Exports by Country (million barrels per day)

Country percentages have remained essentially flat

but absolute volumes have increased

Page 19: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Pri

ce (

Cents

per

Gallon)

WTI, Brent and PADD 3 Gasoline Price History

19 Source: EIA

WTI Price

PADD 3

Gasoline

Price

Brent Price

Gasoline prices are more closely tied to Brent than WTI

Page 20: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

Effects of Not Lifting Crude Oil Ban

20

Once all North American Light Sweet imports are displaced, the Gulf Coast will

become saturated with domestic production

Producers will experience >$30/bbl price differentials to Brent

Producers will be forced to lay down rigs: starting with the marginal plays and

eventually every play will shut down

Natural gas supplies will reduce dramatically as 60% of natural gas production

is associated with oil production

Resulting in hundreds of thousands of lost jobs

Production growth will stall and begin to decline

Resulting in less tax revenue for federal, state and local governments

Amid declining domestic production, refineries will increase imports of foreign

Medium Sour crudes

U.S. trade deficit will resume expansion as refineries purchase foreign crude

Page 21: IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon€¦ · quality of technical data, environmental and weather risks, including the possible impacts of climate change, the risks associated with the

21

Effects of Lifting Crude Oil Ban

Current U.S. Oil and Gas Industry’s Impact (API)

Supports 9.8 million U.S. jobs

Accounts for 8% of the U.S. economy

Delivers $85 million per day in revenue to the federal government

Invested over $2 trillion in U.S. capital projects since 2000

Effects of Lifting Crude Oil Ban

Industry will create up to 1.7 million new jobs by 2020 (McKinsey)

Reduced gasoline prices to the U.S. consumer (Resources for the Future)

Dramatically improved U.S. oil and gas trade balance

– Forecasted $354 billion deficit in 2011 to $5 billion surplus in 2020 (Citi)

Less dependent on foreign oil sources