ipd benelux composite market indicator 2012

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IPD BeNeLux composite market indicator 2012

PropertyEU

Benelux Investment Briefing

Brussels, 24 M ay 2013

Arnoud L.M. Vlak

managing director IPD BeNeLux

©2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

Belgium databank 2012

Index data started 2004

IPD Databank capital value (million €)

8,157

Number of properties 373

Number of funds 32

Market coverage

(est. € 42 billion) 19%

IPD BeNeLux composite market indicator core data

Netherlands databank 2012

Index data started 1995

IPD Databank capital value (million €)

37,267

Number of properties 4.521

Number of funds 58

Market coverage

(est. € 112 billion) 33%


IPD BeNeLux composite market indicator market size & coverage

0% 20% 40% 60%

Insurance & pension fund

Listed company

Non-listed fund

Other / unknown

Private investor

Client Non-client

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Insurance & pension fund

Listed company

Non-listed fund

Other / unknown

Private investor

Client Non-client


IPD BeNeLux market indicator 2012 – composition

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Retail

Office

Industrial

Residential

Other

Belgium

Netherlands


BeNeLux 2012 total return composite & differentiated

Standing Investments Total Return differentiated per country:

1,9

IPD BeNeLux- Standing Investments composite Total Return

IPD Belgium index 3,6 IPD Netherlands Annual index 1,2


BeNeLux composite total return 2012, per sector

Retail, offices, industrial and other (SI)

-1.4

-5.3 -4.8

-3.2-1.7 -3.5

6.0 6.1 6.84.5

6.2

5.54.4

0.5

1.7

1.1

4.4

1.9

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Retail Offices Industrial Residential Other All sectors

Pe

rce

nta

ge %

Income return Capital growth Total return


BeNeLux differentiated total return 2012, per sector

Retail, offices, industrial and other per region (SI)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Retail Office Industrial Residential Other All Property

Pe

rce

nta

ge (%

) Belgium

Netherlands

BeNeLux

Eurozone


BeNeLux composite return p/a 2005 - 2012

Total return index results all sectors (SI)

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Capital growth Income return Total return

Tota

l Ret

urn

%

3-years: 3.5 8-years: 5.8

Annualised BeNeLux total returns:


BeNeLux differentiated return p/a 2005 – 2012

All property (SI) – Total return

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

181

99

8

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Belgium Netherlands BeNeLux Eurozone

To

tal R

etu

rn %


BeNeLux returns 2005 – 2012 in global perspective

All property (SI) – Total return annualised average return (currency effect)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Au

stra

lia

Au

stri

a

Ca

na

da

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Den

ma

rk

Euro

zon

e

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ger

ma

ny

Hu

nga

ry

Ita

ly

Jap

an

New

Zea

lan

d

No

rwa

y

Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

gal

Irel

an

d

Sou

th A

fric

a

Sou

th K

ore

a

Spa

in

Swed

en

Swit

zerl

an

d

UK

USA

Bel

giu

m

Net

her

lan

ds

BeN

eLu

x

Euro

zon

e

Tota

l re

turn

(%)

Avg. 2005-2012 return local currency Avg. 2005-2012 return €


BeNeLux risk & return 2005 – 2012 in global perspective

All property (SI) – Total return annualised average return

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0 5 10 15 20 25

An

nu

alis

ed

to

tal r

etu

rn (%

)

Risk (Stdev)

Other countries

Belgium

Netherlands

BeNeLux

Eurozone


BeNeLux return 2005 – 2012 in perspective of GDP growth

All property (SI) – Total return annualised average return

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed

to

tal r

etu

rn (%

)

Annualised Real GDP growth (%)

Other countries

Belgium

Netherlands

BeNeLux

Eurozone


Capital value growth analysis: retail - Belgium

Underlying parameters (SI)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Decem

ber

20

04

= 1

00

Gross income

Market rent

Capital value

Inflation

Income growth potential as % of rent passing

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

2012

2011

2010

Overrented Rent review potential Vacancy


Capital value growth analysis: offices - Belgium

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Decem

ber

20

04

= 1

00

Gross income

Market rent

Capital value

Inflation



-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

2012

2011

2010



Capital value growth analysis: residential - NL


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Dece

mb

er

200

7 =

100

Gross income

Market rent

Capital value

Inflation

Vacant value

Quarterly index (94% of annual index)

Source: Vacant value: CBS bestaande koopwoningen

Adjustment transfer tax

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2012

2011

2010




Capital value growth analysis: retail - NL


90

95

100

105

110

115

de

c-0

7

mrt

-08

jun

-08

se

p-0

8

de

c-0

8

mrt

-09

jun

-09

se

p-0

9

de

c-0

9

mrt

-10

jun

-10

sep-1

0

de

c-1

0

mrt

-11

jun

-11

se

p-1

1

de

c-1

1

mrt

-12

jun

-12

se

p-1

2

de

c-1

2

Decem

ber

2007 =

100

Gross income

Market rent

Capital value

Inflation



-10 -5 0 5 10 15

2012

2011

2010


Average remaining lease duration

61 months

55 months

52 months


Capital value growth analysis: offices - NL

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

dec-0

7

mrt

-08

jun

-08

se

p-0

8

de

c-0

8

mrt

-09

jun

-09

se

p-0

9

de

c-0

9

mrt

-10

jun-1

0

se

p-1

0

de

c-1

0

mrt

-11

jun

-11

se

p-1

1

de

c-1

1

mrt

-12

jun

-12

se

p-1

2

de

c-1

2

Decem

ber

2007 =

100

Gross income

Market rent

Capital value

Inflation



-20 -10 0 10 20 30

2012

2011

2010


Average remaining lease duration

52 months

46 months

46 months



BeNeLux Key Centers in European perspective - offices

Total return 2005 – 2012 (Standing Investments)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Brussels

Other Belgium

Amsterdam

Berlin

Frankfurt

London

Paris

To

tal R

etu

rn %

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 5 10 15 20An

nu

lise

d to

tal r

etu

rn 2

00

5-2

01

2

Volatility (st. dev)

Brussels

Other Belgium

Amsterdam

Berlin

Frankfurt

London

Paris


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ipd benelux composite market indicator 2012

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