Elizabeth Thompson

The final speeches have been delivered. Delegates have

been wined, dined and wooed.Today, they decide who will be

the next leader of the NDP and potentially the next prime min-ister of Canada.

However, much of that will play out far from the constant glare of the television cameras. Signs, placards and the traditional con-vention hoopla is only the tip of a very large iceberg.

The real action will be taking place below the surface as each candidate moves its get-out-the-vote operation into overdrive.

Phone banks will be dialing non-stop. Campaign workers will be surfing cyberspace and social media. Prominent supporters of each candidate will take to the airwaves, talking up their can-didates and spinning develop-ments to their camps’ advantage.

In the end, nobody knows for sure what will happen.

Unlike traditional delegated conventions, the New Demo-cratic Party is using a straight one-member, one-vote system to choose its next leader. While roughly 132,00 NDP members are eligible to vote and 55,659 or 41 per cent have voted through advance preferential ballots,

76,341 had not yet voted before the convention began. In all, 4,212 have travelled to the To-ronto Convention Centre, which still leaves up to 72,129 eligible voters who could be voting in the privacy of their homes or smart phones, far from the dynamic of the convention floor.

While many of them may not vote at all, that invisible majority leaves a fair amount of potential for political intrigue.

Campaigns have phone banks set up in different cities across the country and have identified their core supporters as well as those who might be willing to come to

Invisible majority will rule the dayAway from the placards and hoopla, 72,129 members have yet to vote

NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE: 3 LEGACY: 6

Even after the votes are counted, questions at the heart of the race will remain

Colin Horgan

“I look at our great country and I see his legacy,” Olivia Chow told the thousands gathered Friday evening in Toronto for the NDP leadership convention. She was referring, of course, to Jack Lay-ton, the man whose shoes one of seven candidates will inevitably be asked to fill – or at least, to oc-cupy, come some time on Satur-day.

The tribute brought back mem-ories of the funeral nobody ex-pected last summer. Layton’s friends and family appeared on the stage to remember what Lay-ton stood for – love, equality, hope – and to remind party members of the importance of continuing that journey. Even Layton’s politi-cal opponents were there, albeit via video.

Former prime ministers Jean Chrétien and Brian Mulroney praised Layton’s commitment to Canada and the political process. People like to dump on politicians, Chrétien said, but Layton was a good one — a professional who connected to people and hoped to make their lives better.

Mulroney called Layton a great man. “It was always an honour to be in his company.”

Unlike at Layton’s funeral, the focus was very much on the fu-ture. The message: New Demo-crats must heed Layton’s vision and carry through on realizing his dreams – among them, defeat-

Olivia Chow waves to NDP members during the evening tribute to her late husband, former NDP leader Jack Layton. KYLE HAMILTON/iPOLITICS

March 24, 2012

‘All of you are the Layton legacy,’ Chow says

Phone banks will be dialing non-stop. Campaign workers

will be surfing cyberspace

and social media. Prominent supporters

will take to the airwaves, talking up

their candidates and spinning

developments.

Breaking news and analysis,photos, videos, cartoons, details on the party’s parties… plus everything you need to know as you cast your vote

March 24, 2012 | iPolitics.ca 2

‘Each of you carries Jack’s vision and dream in your heart’

Follow us on Twitter at @iPoliticsCA | Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/ipoliticsCA

Contribute to our Instagram galleries by using the hashtag #ipcaNDP

Join the conversation at Pinterest at pinterest.com/ipoliticsCA

Photos by Kyle Hamilton

iPolitics.ca | March 24, 2012 3

WHO WE AREiPolitics.ca is Canada’s go-to source for independent, non-partisan political news, infor-mation and analysis.Here are just some of the features you’ll find on our site every day:

THE MORNING BRIEFOur daily newsletter drives con-versations about federal and provincial politics. Delivered to your inbox by 6 a.m., it reveals all you need to know about the issues before they make head-lines.

BREAKING STORIESiPolitics is a must-read site for political news as it is happen-ing. We cover the wrangling while exploring the intersection of politics with Bay Street, inter-national finance, civil society, interest groups and the media.

TALKING HEADSColin Horgan covers all the ac-tion on the Hill in a rolling blog that updates throughout the day.

FEATURED OPINIONEvery day at iPolitics.ca you’ll find someone eager to debate. Our regular columnists include Robert Asselin, Fen Hampson, Michael Harris, Dylan Marando, Scott Vrooman and, of course, Lawrence Martin.

COMMITTEE WATCHIn updated reports when the House is sitting, iPolitics and The Alpheus Group serve up full coverage of the discussions and debates in and around the gov-ernment’s meeting rooms.

HEADLINE NEWSIn addition to the iPolitics newsfile, we showcase news, features and analysis from The Canadian Press, The Financial Times, GlobalPost and ProPublica.

James Baxter, Editor and PublisherJim Anderson, Deputy PublisherSusan Allan, Executive EditorIan Shelton, Deputy EditorJessie Willms, Designer

Head OfficeWorld Exchange Plaza45 O’Connor St, Suite 530 Ottawa, Canada, K1P 1A4Phone: 613-216-9638

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Mark Blevis

Twitter is alive with activity about the NDP leadership convention. People issuing Twitter updates identified with the so-called hashtag (text identifier) #ndpldr or #ndp were responsible for 16,164 tweets before the Jack Lay-ton tribute began Friday at 7 p.m. — that’s more than the average number of election-related tweets issued each day during last year’s federal campaign.

When it comes to Twitter men-tions, Nathan Cullen was the runaway leader until late after-noon when Peggy Nash gained momentum. Martin Singh’s showcase, including his son’s vio-lin performance, helped signifi-cantly. His tweet count had been firm below 50 prior to him taking

the stage. Thomas Mulcair, de-spite being considered the front-runner, has lagged.

Here’s the breakdown from Fri-day — up until the start of the Jack Layton tribute. It’s important to remember that when it comes to tweets, quantity doesn’t suggest quality of content or engagement. It’s simply a measure of mentions, including the candidate’s own Tweets.

1.Peggy Nash, 2,9372. Nathan Cullen, 2,4913. Brian Topp, 1,1664. Niki Ashton, 1,0825. Thomas Mulcair, 1,0496. Paul Dewar, 1,0267. Martin Singh, 473

Analysis performed using Sysomos MAP.

The opposite of a hashtag fail: #NDPldr tops Twitter

In the end, nobody knows for sure what will happen

FROM PAGE 1

them on a second or third bal-lot. The moment the first choice of those supporters drops off the ballot, those telephone banks will spring into action with only an hour to convince those NDP members to swing to their camp.

Some veteran observers say much may depend on just how high a count Thomas Mulcair gets on the first ballot. If he gets 35 per cent or more, some will be tempted to move to him on the second ballot to put him over the magic 50 per cent threshold.

However, if Mulcair comes in under that level, it could turn into a very different race.

While Martin Singh has al-ready said he will urge his sup-porters to vote for Mulcair on the second ballot, the challenge for Mulcair’s organization will be to continue to grow its vote.

If Mulcair can’t grow from one ballot to another, or grow enough, it could leave the path open for one of his rivals.

On the convention floor, two of the stronger camps appeared to belong to Mulcair and Peggy Nash. With her union roots, Nash can also tap into a lot of union organizational expertise.

However, insiders say Topp can

also count on a lot of union sup-port and is a veteran NDP orga-nizer. His organization believes that many of Niki Ashton’s sup-porters can be convinced to join their camp as well as many from Nash’s camp, should she drop off. While they believe Nathan Cullen would throw his support to Mulcair, they also think they can garner many of members at-tracted by Cullen because of his environmental positions.

In the end, chances are the final ballot will see the NDP choose between two different visions and two different directions with Mulcair on the one hand and ei-ther Nash or Topp on the other.

The winner gets to take on Ste-phen Harper Monday.

elizabeththompson@ipolitics.ca

Today’s action will take place below the surface as

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How well do you know your would-be leader? Check out iPolitics.ca to find out who stands where ... and why. While you’re there, read what they have to say about the best and worst of the campaign trail.

March 24, 2012 | iPolitics.ca 4

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Lawrence Martin

Hard to imagine. After running a clockwork campaign, NDP lead-ership candidate Thomas Mulcair stumbled at a crucial moment on Friday. The introductory hoopla to his convention address ate up so much time that he had no choice but to rush through his speech.

The Montrealer who ap-peared self-assured and in-fused with the royal jelly during months of campaigning was off his game. His performance left the door open to others.

And yet the frontrunner’s be-low-par showing may not have cost him much since no candi-date shone during Friday’s show-case showdown on a dreary after-noon in a half-full hall.

Who has momentum? The speeches only increased the guessing game. The short answer is no one. Any one of four — or maybe five — candidates could win the crown of Opposition leader, the biggest prize that has ever been on offer at an NDP lead-ership contest.

Mulcair is still considered the frontrunner, but the view among many New Democrats is that his campaign stalled somewhat after Ed Broadbent’s attack. The frontal

assault in which the former NDP leader called to question his so-cial democratic bona fides cast a chill that is still being felt.

Mulcair opened his speech by noting he’d run a positive cam-paign. With what appeared to be a shot at Broadbent, he empha-sized that the only fight he’s eager to pick is across the aisle in the House of Commons.

Nathan Cullen made the same point just a little earlier in the af-ternoon. Operating without a tele-prompter, the British Columbian struggled for words at times, but found his stride toward the end. Like Mulcair, he made clear the party must reach beyond its base.

Brian Topp delivered a safe but uninspiring speech that was heavy on clichés. “I am an un-

apologetic social democrat,” he said. Clichés, maybe, said one of his campaigners. “For others they’re enduring values.”

Showing a spark and passion that was absent during most of her campaign, Peggy Nash an-nounced in no uncertain terms that she is the best choice. But technical difficulties hampered her performance and she had to rush to finish over the sound of exit music.

All that said, if there was any-one who gained from the after-noon speeches, it was Nash. She spoke of her experience as a la-bour negotiator and explained how she’d stood up to men at the bargaining table. She received a spirited introduction by Alexa McDonough, the Nova Scotian

who led the party a decade ago. If women members move en masse to Nash, she could win it.

Paul Dewar appeared to find a new set of vocal chords. He was forceful and polished but still hobbled by his French, a short-coming that is likely to keep him from the top three on the first bal-lot.

By day’s end, some party in-siders were predicting it may take four ballots to find a win-ner. Adding to the suspense is the likelihood that more party members than expected saved their votes for the actual con-vention. Of 132,000 potential voters, 55,000 cast their ballots before the opening day cut-off. It leaves large numbers to vote live and perhaps be influenced by

candidates who may throw their support behind others as ballot-ing progresses.

Martin Singh and Niki Ashton are likely to finish in the bot-tom positions when first-ballot results are announced at 10 a.m. Saturday. Singh is expected to an-nounce his support for Mulcair, but it’s not thought that Ashton will signal her intentions.

Just a little more than a week ago, Mulcair was riding a wave of endorsements from party mem-bers and media pundits. Now though, there is doubt. You can see it on the faces of those in his camp and even on that of the can-didate himself.

Lawrence Martin is a regular contributor to iPolitics.

Slow moWho has momentum? After the showcase showdown, it’s anyone’s guess

Kyle Hamilton/iPOLITICSAlthough Peggy Nash revealed a spark that was absent during most of her campaign, her speech was hampered by technical difficulties.

iPolitics.ca | March 24, 2012 5

�omas MulairMulcair is expected to spur the greatest number of internal changes, on the front bench and in senior sta�. In some cases, he will have initiated them; in others, he’ll be informed of them. Mulcair will also stir up the most attention from the other parties. �e Conservatives will move quickly to launch attack ads against a formidable opponent, while the Liberals will have to guard against losing their own progressive voters to his moderate leadership.

Peggy NashWith strong union support, Nash has campaigned as a movement politi-cian, positioning herself as an NDP purist. �ere will be no talk of mergers on her watch, and in the House of Commons, the le�/right dichotomy will be plain to see. Nash’s election could mean fairly significant changes on the front bench and in policy priori�.

Paul DewarDewar is passionate about the grass-roots and foreign policy, so look for those to be hallmarks of his leadership. His greatest challenge will be ingratiat-ing himself to Quebecers when he is still struggling with his own French. He will continue his language lessons, but still need to move quickly to find someone who can handle the Quebec media. �e trouble is, choosing a Quebec lieutenant is a decision fraught with problems.

Niki Ashton Martin SinghAshton is a long-shot candidate, but then again, so was Stephane Dion. She has been campaigning on inclusive politics, growing the par� in the West, and — a�er last week’s bickering — par� uni�. While observers don’t think she’s ready to take the reigns, there’s one obvious plus to her victory. Given the long odds, it would take the Conservatives more time than usual to launch attack ads against her.

As with Topp, a Singh victory would necessitate a by-election. But even Singh himself isn’t expecting that — he has already endorsed Mulcair as his second-choice candidate. A�er raising his profile among Canadians, particu-larly Indo-Canadians, look for Singh to sell enough pharmaceuticals to pay o� that $1,100 fine for using unparliamen-tary language in the Quebec debate.

Brian ToppTopp has worked closely and collegially with most of the par�’s top o�cials, meaning fewer turnovers are expected. On the change spectrum, he’s at the opposite end from Mulcair. But Topp has to win a seat, which will be his biggest challenge. He has said he will run in Quebec, which means asking an MP to step aside — and then possibly facing o� in a byelec-tion against Bloc Quebecois leader Daniel Paille. If Topp loses that race, we could be back on the conven-tion floor again.

THE NEW LEADER’S NEXT STEPS : Within hours of Saturday’s final ballot — while delegates are still putting the “par�” in New Democratic Par� — the process of shi�ing power from Nycole Turmel to the big winner will begin.

Sonya Bell explains what the new leader can expect.

�e sta� in the Opposition leader’s o�ce will present their new boss with a series of green books, outlining transition issues, what calls need to be made and what positions are to be filled. �ere will be a packed press conference Sunday as well, and the leader may call the caucus together for an informal first meeting.

If Sunday sounds busy, just wait for the work week. �e House of Commons is back in session on Monday, there will be a formal caucus meeting Wednesday, and the federal budget comes down on �ursday. NDP MP Pat Martin predicts the Conservatives already have attack ads against the new leader poised to go, so watch for those, too.

Parliament’s two-week Easter break begins on April 6. Will there finally be time to move into Stornoway? Maybe. But most importantly, the par� needs to start introducing its new leader to Canadians. Look for him or her to spend much of April on the road, meeting and greeting people at public appearances across the country.

Cullen’s best known proposal is joint nominations in Conservative-held ridings, so look for him to flesh that out early on. He may put together a wise person’s committee from the NDP side to reach out to a similar group on the Liberal side. As a westerner, Cullen is also expected to raise the temperature on the energy portfo-lio — in particular, on the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline.

Nathan Cullen

Here’s what might transpire in each of the seven possible scenarios.

March 24, 2012 | iPolitics.ca 6

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ing the Conservative government. While the praise and accolades

came from his family, fellow poli-ticians, Canadian politicos, and even from ordinary citizens, the strongest message was from Lay-ton’s widow, Olivia Chow, who stood at the lectern to deliver the night’s final speech.

Layton’s legacy is already spreading, she told a crowd

decked in T-shirts emblazoned with the slogan, “I am the Layton legacy.” Like seeds set adrift by a spring breeze, his ideas landed here and there, sprouting new ideas.

“I look at the faces of young Ca-nadians inspired by his message of love, hope, and optimism,” she said. “Jack believed like nothing else in the power of young people,

to reject those that said, ‘This is the way it has to be,’ to show that together we can make things bet-ter, to change the world.”

This is perhaps the message the NDP should choose to remember most of all.

“I can’t help fearing that men may reach a point where they look on every new theory as a danger, every innovation as a toilsome trouble, every social advance as a first step toward revolution,” Alexis de Tocqueville wrote, “and that they may absolutely refuse to

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the memory of Layton, he was unafraid of steering the party to where it needed to go, both ideologically and politically. The tribute came only hours after his seven potential successors made a final pitch to members for why and how they can lead the party to where Layton had it pointed – to more seats, to government, to more Canadians than ever. To the future.

How that happens will depend

on the decisions members make in the next 24 hours. The party is still poised to vault to increased popularity, but the question is how it will do that. Even after Sat-urday’s final votes are counted, this existential conundrum at the heart of the leadership race will remain. As will the questions. As will the doubts. As will the de-bates. As will Layton’s memory.

“Each of you carries Jack’s vision and dream in your heart. … All of you are the Layton legacy,” Chow said Friday. “Are you ready?”

‘I look at our great country and I see his legacy’

FROM PAGE 1

Kyle Hamilton/iPOLITICS

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