ips-industry, trade & business statistics_mills

8/10/2019 IPS-Industry, Trade & Business Statistics_Mills

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The Use of Statistics

In the Philippine Automotive Manufacturing Industry Roadmap

In November 2012, the Philippine Automotive Competitiveness Council, Inc.

(PACCI) submitted the Philippine Automotive Manuacturin! Industr" (PAMI)

#oadmap to the $oard o Investments ($%I). &he #oadmap is both a stand'alone

input into the development plan or the Industr", and a contribution to the

National Manuacturin! Industries trate!" that $%I is cratin!, to!ether the

Private ector at lar!e and the ith relevant *overnment a!encies. In that latter

conte+t, the PAMI #oadmap derives its mandate rom the understandin! beteen

$%I and PACCI at the Philippine Automotive Manuacturin! ummit in anuar"2012 or PACCI to underta-e this e+ercise. &he author o this Paper as tas-ed b"

PACCI to be the principal resource person or the #oadmap, and the co'author

produced the drats. &his paper is both an e+position o the #oadmaps main

points. &his Paper also remar-s the points at hich statistical or- came into pla"

in developin! the #oadmaps thesis.

A Quick Overvie of the Industry! &he Industr" comprises an accumulated total

o Php120$ in investments, principall" in 1/ vehicle assembl" plants, seven o

hich have the critical lectro'eposition Paintin! s"stems. &otal nationidecapacit" is 200,000 units per annum. And here the maor brands are involved,

these acilities have been audited b" the principals and have been rated as

compliant ith the relevant !lobal standards. 3oever, the Industr" is burdened

b" allin! short o potential economies o scale, maniested in both vehicle

assembl" and parts manuacturin!. Nationide capacit" utili4ation or

assemblers is a poor 567. &here are onl" si+ %ri!inal 8uipment Manuacturers,

129 &ier 1 parts suppliers and 152 pla"ers in &iers 2 and 5, compared to the much

deeper pools o parts suppliers in &hailand and Indonesia. As a result, the

Philippine auto suppl" chain is truncated. :pstream, it produces onl" some 500o the 2/,000 parts that !o into the manuacture o a vehicle. At the assembl"

level, there is a narro portolio o models or both the domestic and e+port

sales. All around, there are cost handicaps due to the lo scale o operations,

contributin! to a cost dierential o some 197 or a t"pical domesticall" produced

C; model versus the correspondin! imported C$:. $e that as it ma", the

Industr" accounts or some 97 o total *P and 127 o the Industrial ector

(2011). It contributed Php50.2$ in ta+es and duties paid in 2011. It emplo"s


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anticipated mar-et !roth is attractive and presents the potential or a stron!er

domestic manuacturin! industr", but all eorts must no be ta-en or domestic

manuacturers to reverse the declinin! trend and to !ain a viable share o this!roin! mar-et. $" 2016, in an institutional mar-et turnin! over close to 510-

units, the Industr" hopes to attain @0B7 utili4ation o the current 200- capacit",

and produce some 1@/- units or the local mar-et. &his ould potentiall" restore

C;s to a 657 share o the institutional mar-et and resume e+ports at 1


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&he mar-et demand scenarios ere built throu!h FnaGve orecastin!.H &here are

!ood and bad reasons or havin! resorted to these procedures. &he lo!ic o the

e+trapolations used is intuitivel" evident. %n the other hand, users o statisticaltools do ish that more sophisticated and trul" accurate, predictivel" capable

anal"sis resources (models and anal"sts) ould be readil" available.

inall", the cost'beneit anal"sis as one o the most challen!in! statistical

eatures o the #oadmap e+ercise. &his did not stem rom an" lac- o mental

acuit" amon! the *overnment and Private ector resource persons, but rather

rom the comple+it" o the inter'industr" anal"sis as ell as the comple+it" o the

ta+ation and incentives re!imes. Apart rom needin! !ood statistical anal"sis to

appl" to the evaluation o inancial and economic costs and beneits, it is alsosu!!ested that ever"one ould beneit rom simpliication o these ta+ and

incentives re!imes, or at least rom -eepin! the *overnment a!encies in

smoother contact ith respect to data !eneration and sharin!. It is a credit to

$%I, o course, that even ith such a lean orce, the" ere able to do their on

anal"sis, inormed b" the inputs rom the private sector, but certainl"

independent.

'''''JJJ'''''

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