www.IPSInstitute.org/syria-­‐simulations-­‐project          

   

                         

 SUMMARY:  As  violence  continues  unabated,  Syrians  and  the  international  community  are  seeking  greater  information   on   how   to   resolve   the   armed   conflict   and   then   transition   the   country   from   civil   war   to  stability.    To  address  the  question  of  how  the  Syrian  conflict  will  end  and  what  a  possible  transition  might  look   like,   the   International  Peace  &  Security   Institute   (IPSI)  developed  a   series  of  half  day-­‐to-­‐three  day  interactive,  flexible  multilateral  simulations  based  on  the  conflict  in  Syria.      These   simulations   are   important   for   both   the   value   of   the   experiential   educational   process   for  participants   (i.e.   the   ability   to   “get   into   the   head”   of   conflict   actors)   and   for   their   powerful   predictive  analysis   (i.e.   simulation   players’   decisions   have   closely   mirrored   the   eventual   decisions   of   real-­‐world  actors).          “If  we  can  confront  enough  of  our  discomfort  and  hone  our  skills  in  places  like  this,  we  will  all  be  much  

more  effective  in  the  real  world.”  -­‐  Simulation  Participant    

 

  IPSI • 1720 N STREET, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20036 PHONE: 202-375-7774 • FAX: 202-330-5376 • WWW.IPSINSTITUTE.ORG

 The  Syria  Simulations  Project  

 

ABOUT  IPSI    The   International   Peace   &   Security   Institute   (IPSI)   empowers   the   next   generation   of   peacemakers.  Founded  on   the   core  belief   that  education   can  mitigate  violent   conflict,   IPSI   facilitates   the   transfer  of  knowledge  and  skills  to  a  global  audience  from  the  world’s  premier  political  leaders,  academic  experts,  practitioners,   and   advocates.   The   Institute   develops   comprehensive   training   programs,   advances  scholarly  research,  and  promotes  efforts  to  raise  public  awareness  of  peace  and  security  issues.    IPSI  strives  through  our  programming  to  be  an  innovative  leader  in  the  peace  and  security  field.  

• We  coordinate  meetings  of   great  minds  on   key   topics   at   global  Peace  &  Security   Symposiums  and  in  Washington,  D.C.  to  spark  innovative  ideas.  

• We   collaborate   with   the   globe’s   top   universities,   organizations,   government   bodies,   and  multilateral  institutions  to  design  cutting  edge  experiential  education  models  and  simulations.  

• We  conduct  public  outreach  and  education  through  a  weekly  Peace  &  Security  Report.    

ABOUT  THE  SYRIA  SIMULATIONS  PROJECT  As   violence   continues   unabated,   Syrians   and   the   international   community   are   seeking   greater  information   on   how   to   resolve   the   armed   conflict   and   then   transition   the   country   from   civil   war   to  stability.     To   address   the   question   of   how   the   Syrian   conflict   will   end   and  what   a   possible   transition  might  look  like,  the  International  Peace  &  Security  Institute  (IPSI)  developed  a  series  of  half  day-­‐to-­‐three  day  interactive,  flexible  multilateral  simulations  based  on  the  conflict  in  Syria.  

Full   simulations   take   three   days   to   facilitate,   although   specific   scenarios/modules   from   the   larger  simulations  have  been  designed  to  run  independently  and  can  be  tailored  to  the  specific  learning  needs  of  outside  organizations,  institutions,  and  government  bodies.      SIMULATION   UNIVERSE   ONE:   Set   in   a   complex   universe   closely   mirroring   Syria’s   current   state,   this  simulation  challenges  participants  to  explore  how  conflict  resolution  techniques,   including  negotiation,  facilitation,   mediation,   military   intervention   and   nonviolent   action,   might   contribute   to   a   resolution.      Participants   take   on   the   roles   of   actors   from   the   Assad   regime,   the   opposition   forces,   and   the  international  community  to  test  how  different  actions  may  affect  the  conflict.        SIMULATION  UNIVERSE  TWO:  The  second  simulation  universe  places  many  of   the  same  conflict  actor  roles  from  Simulation  Universe  One  in  a  fictionalized,  post-­‐conflict  Syria.  The  participants  are  challenged  to  structure  a  holistic  transition  for  the  country,  taking  into  account  security,  governance,  development,  rule  of  law  with  an  eye  towards  restorative  and  retributive  justice  mechanisms,  and  social  well-­‐being.      If   your   organization   is   interested   in   running   the   full   or   partial   simulations,   please   contact   IPSI’s  President,  Cameron  M.  Chisholm,  at  cchisholm@ipsinstitute.org  or  202-­‐375-­‐7774.    

 

  IPSI • 1720 N STREET, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20036 PHONE: 202-375-7774 • FAX: 202-330-5376 • WWW.IPSINSTITUTE.ORG

 SIMULATION  ONE:  “SHIFTING  SANDS:  THE  SYRIA  TALKS”  

The  simulation  places  participants   in  a  setting  that  closely  resembles  the  current  situation  in  Syria.    As  armed  conflict  continues,  Syrians  and  the  international  community  alike  are  struggling  to  find  a  way  to  resolve  the  conflict  and  rebuild  the  country.    This  simulation  allows  the  participants  to  take  on  a  total  of  35  possible  roles  from  the  Assad  regime,  the  opposition  forces,  and  the  international  community  to  test  how  different  actions  may  affect  the  conflict.  

The   simulation  was  developed   to  explore  how  various   interactions  at  both   the   international  and   local  levels   in   Syria,   as   well   as   between   these   levels,   might   impact   the   conflict.     The   simulation   has   been  conducted  twice;  from  these  two  events  several  developments  stood  out:  

ü Much   of   the   discussion   among   the   international   community   revolved   around   peacekeeping  forces   or   humanitarian   aid;   these   were   areas   where   players   were  more   easily   able   to   find  consensus  

ü A   lack   of   confidence   concerning   the   inner   bureaucracies   of   the   international   system   and  international   organizations   caused   some   players   to   hesitate   to   take   action   or   predict  outcomes  

ü The  Syrian  government  began  as  a  united  front,  but  quickly  started  to  splinter,  as  players  were  more  concerned  about  personal  interests  than  the  interests  of  the  state  

ü News  that  chemical  weapons  were  used  by  government  forces,  which  came  midway  through  the  simulation,  caused  panic  and  chaos,  but  the  international  community  could  not  agree  on  appropriate  military  actions  to  punish  the  regime,  so  none  were  taken  

The  simulation  was  originally  designed  to  run  for  a  three-­‐day  period;  however,  it  can  easily  be  modified  to  fit  a  shorter  timeframe.    The  simulation  includes  the  roles  listed  below,  but  additional  or  alternative  roles  can  be  created  to  meet  the  learning  objectives  and  needs  of  the  simulation  participants.    • Syrian  Government    

o President  Bashar  Assad  o Commander  Maher  Assad  o Elite  business  leader  Rami  Makhlouf  o Beladushami  UN  Representative  

• Opposition  Representatives  o Representative  to  the  League  of  Arab  States  o Syrian  Opposition  Coalition  representative  o Syrian  National  Council  and  Muslim  Brotherhood  

representative  o Free  Syrian  Army  Chief  of  Staff    o Kurdish  National  Council  representative    o Al-­‐Nusra  Front  representative    o Local  Coordination  Committee  representative  

and  opposition  journalist  • United  Nations  and  Arab  League  Envoy  to  Syria  team  

o Special  Envoy  o Deputy  Special  Envoy  

• North  Atlantic  Treaty  Organization    o French  Ambassador  to  NATO  o Turkish  Ambassador  to  NATO    o UK  Ambassador  to  NATO  o U.S.  Ambassador  to  NATO    

• United  Nations  Security  Council    o Chinese  Ambassador  to  the  UN    o French  Ambassador  to  the  UN  o Russian  Ambassador  to  the  UN  o UK  Ambassador  to  the  UN  o U.S.  Ambassador  to  the  UN  

• League  of  Arab  States    o Qatari  representative    o Saudi  Arabian  representative    o Iraqi  representative    

• Other  International  Representatives  o Israeli  representative  of  the  Prime  Minister  o Minister  of  Foreign  Affairs  of  the  Islamic  

Republic  of  Iran  o Hezbollah  commander  o Russian  Foreign  Minister  o Turkish  Foreign  Minister  o U.S.  Secretary  of  State  

• Other  Actors  o BBC  journalist  o Representative  of  International  Committee  of  

the  Red  Cross/Red  Crescent  o Nonviolent  activist  o Arms  dealer    

 

  IPSI • 1720 N STREET, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20036 PHONE: 202-375-7774 • FAX: 202-330-5376 • WWW.IPSINSTITUTE.ORG

 SIMULATION  TWO:  “TRANSITIONING  SYRIA”  

The  “Transitioning  Syria”  simulation  allows  participants  to  negotiate  a  transition  plan  for  a  moderately  fictionalized  version  of  a  future  Syria,  which  has  entered  into  a  tenuous  post-­‐conflict  phase.    Participants  represent   a   range  of   local   and   international   actors,   each  with  his/her  own   interests   and  objectives   at  stake.     The   full   simulation   has   a   possible   37   roles,   including   representatives   from   the   international  community   and   local   actors   on   the   ground   in   Syria.     The   participants   are   challenged   to   structure   a  holistic   transition   for   the   country,   taking   into  account   security,   governance,  development,   and   rule  of  law  with  an  eye  towards  restorative  and  retributive  justice  mechanisms.  

This   simulation  was   designed   to   allow   participants   to   creatively   conceptualize   possible   transitions   for  Syria,  and  test  how  their  interactions  with  one  another  might  shape  or  obstruct  these  transition  plans.    Key  findings  from  the  first  iteration  of  the  simulation  include:  

ü Much  of  the  discussion  concerned  the  refugee  situation;  this  was  one  of  the  few  areas  where  decisions  were  made  and  concrete  plans  of  action  developed  

ü Players   identified   territorial   sovereignty,   humanitarian   aid   and   security   as   the  most   urgent  issues  to  address  in  a  transition  plan  

ü Players  were  able  to  agree  only  to  hold  plenary  talks  when  all  relevant  stakeholders  were  able  and  willing  to  come  to  the  negotiating  table  

The  simulation  was  originally  designed  to  run  for  a  3-­‐day  period;  however,  it  can  easily  be  modified  to  fit  into  a  shorter   timeframe.    The  simulation   includes  the  roles   listed  below,  but  additional  or  alternative  roles  can  be  created  to  meet  the  learning  objectives  and  needs  of  the  simulation  participants.  

• Syrian  Government    o Army  Chief  of  Staff/Interim  President  o Deputy  Prime  Minister  of  Economic  Affairs  o Minister  of  Foreign  Affairs  

• Opposition  Representatives  o Representative  to  the  League  of  Arab  States  o President  of  Syrian  Opposition  Coalition  o Syrian  Opposition  Coalition  representative  o Syrian  National  Council  and  Muslim  Brotherhood  

representative  o Free  Syrian  Army  Chief  of  Staff    o Kurdish  National  Council  representative    o Kurdish  Democratic  Union  Party  representative  o Al-­‐Nusra  Front  representative    o Local   Coordination   Committee   Spokesperson/  

Opposition  Journalist  • United  Nations  and  Arab  League  Envoy  to  Syria  team  

o Special  Envoy  o Deputy  Special  Envoy  

• United  Nations  Security  Council    o Chinese  Ambassador  to  the  UN  o French  Ambassador  to  the  UN  o Russian  Ambassador  to  the  UN  o UK  Ambassador  to  the  UN    o U.S.  Ambassador  to  the  UN      

• NATO    o French  Ambassador  to  NATO  o Turkish  Ambassador  to  NATO  o UK  Ambassador  to  NATO  o U.S.  Ambassador  to  NATO  

• League  of  Arab  States    o Iraqi  representative  o Qatari  representative  o Saudi  Arabian  representative  

• Other  International  Representatives  o Iranian  Foreign  Minister  o Assistant  to  the  Iranian  Foreign  Minister  o Israeli  representative  of  the  Foreign  Minister  o Representative   of   the   Kurdistan   Regional  

Government  o Russian  Foreign  Minister  o Turkish  Foreign  Minister  o U.S.  Secretary  of  State  

• International  Criminal  Court  o Office  of  the  Prosecutor,  Investigations  Division  o Officer   of   the   Prosecutor,   Jurisdiction,  

Complementarity  and  Cooperation  Division  • BBC  Journalist  • International   Committee   of   the   Red   Cross/Red  

Crescent  representative  

 

  IPSI • 1720 N STREET, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20036 PHONE: 202-375-7774 • FAX: 202-330-5376 • WWW.IPSINSTITUTE.ORG

 

Simulation  Photos:  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Selected  Player  Quotes:  “The  biggest  lessons  we  can  take  are  not  the  procedures  and  reactions  within  a  certain  situation  but  rather  the  way  we  communicate,  the  way  we  handle  pressure,  how  well  we  recognize  the  differences  between  irreconcilable  differences  and  misunderstandings,  and  how  creative  our  problem  solving  can  be.”  

“If  we  can  confront  enough  of  our  discomfort  and  hone  our  skills  in  places  like  this,  we  will  all  be  much  more  effective  in  the  real  world.”