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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends

05/01/2016

Q4 2015

Q3 2015

© Ipsos MORI

*

House Price Outlook (HPO)

* benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015)

% mentioning

Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*]

4

29 25

10

20

Lower by

15% or

more

Lower

by 10%-

15%

Lower

by 5%-

10%

Lower

but less

than 5%

lower

The

same

Higher

but less

than 5%

higher

Higher

by 5%-

10%

Higher

by 10%-

15%

Higher

by 15%

or more

7

Don’t

know

Lower Higher

* 2

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04-18 Dec 2015

3

© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2

+7

+19 +15

+15

+20

+33

+40

+64 +66

+65

+66 +62

+57

+62

+52

+60 +64

+58

+68 +64

+63

+61

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]


Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

House Price Outlook trend

© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2 +7

+19 +15

+15

+20

+33

+40

+64

+66

+65

+66

+62 +57

+62

+52 +60

+64 +58

+68 +64 +63

+61

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23

+15

+23 +29

+24 +19

+5 +12

+11

+21 +21 +26

+16 +1 -1

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or

get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of or during HMCT fieldwork)

HPO and EOI trends

Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker


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+9

-2

+7

+19

+15 +15 +20

+33

+40

+64 +66 +65 +66

+62 +57

+62

+52

+60 +64

+58

+68 +64 +63

+61

18 13

10

24

15 11 13

21

30

41

51 56

57 53 51

55 52

56 59

56 60 59

52 55

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO

Sellingsentiment



Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

HPO and selling sentiment


Selling sentiment –

% agree good time

to sell

HPO – + balance

of % higher

minus % lower


© Ipsos MORI

‘Higher’ trends

3%

10%

25%

29%

20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40




% the same

% < 5% higher

% 5 - 10% higher

% > 15% higher

% 10 - 15% higher


© Ipsos MORI

‘Lower’ trends

*%

2%

4%

20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40




% the same

% < 5% lower

% 5 - 10% lower

% > 15% lower

% 10 - 15% lower


© Ipsos MORI

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

+17 +24

+15

Net (±)

Net good time sell

Net good time buy

-43

-63

+18

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?


-64

-38

-55

+23

-62

+27


Apr

2011

Oct

2011 Jan

2012

Mar

2012

June

2012

Oct

2012

Dec

2012

+20

-58

+25

-42

Mar

2013

+27

-26

June

2013

Sept

2013

+12

+35

-6

Dec

2013

Buying and selling sentiment

Mar

2014

+24

+25 +34

+25

+5

Jul

2014

+11

+19

Sept

2014

+26

+24 +14

+25

Nov

2014 Dec

2014

+27

+21

Jan

2015

+35

+27

Feb

2015 Mar

2015

+21

+33

+26

+30

Apr

2015

+27

+34

May

2015

+25

+32

June

2015

+20

+20

Sept

2015

+26

+23

© Ipsos MORI

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/ good time sell

14% 15%

39%

15%

Buying/selling sentiment combined


Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04 Dec – 18 Dec

Good time buy/ bad time sell

Bad time buy/ good time sell

Bad time buy/ bad time sell

+3 -2 -1 -1

+ change vs September 2015

© Ipsos MORI

44% good time

Regional buying sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to buy a property?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

GB London

South

England

North

England Midlands

54%

good time

51% good

time

29%

bad time 26%

bad time

31%

bad time

57%

good time

39%

bad time

36%

bad time

47%

good time

Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)

and 334 in the Midlands.

© Ipsos MORI

61%

good time

Regional selling sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to sell a property?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

29%

bad time

GB London South

England North

England Midlands

55%

good time 49%

good time

21%

bad time

34%

bad time

55%

good time 52%

good time

28%

bad time

28%

bad time

Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)

and 334 in the Midlands.

© Ipsos MORI

Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend

50%

28%

4%

10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Mortgage interest rates higher Savings account interest rates higher

Mortgage interest rates lower Savings account interest rates lower

Q5a. In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or the same?

Q5b. In 12 months’ time do you think interest rates for savings account rates will be higher, lower

or the same?


Base: c.1000 British adults1,956 age 16+

% mortgage higher

% mortgage lower

% savings higher

% savings lower

© Ipsos MORI

58

42

37

31

20

11

11

10

9

3

3

3

Being able to raise enough deposit

Job security

Rising property prices

Household finances

The general availability of mortgages

Concerns about rises in interest rates

Fees related to buying a house

Shortage of property for sale

Shortage of the right type of property

The level of stamp duty/taxation

Falling property prices

Don’t know

Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?


Barriers to buying

Change + vs Sept 2015

+1

0

+6

0

+3

-5

0

0

0

0

+1

Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 12 – 24 Sept 2015

0

© Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices

% raise enough deposit % mortgages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy

% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation

11%

Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think

are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?

Barriers to buying – trend data

58%

42%

37%

31%

20%

11%

9%


Base: 1,000 – 2,000 British adults 16+

3%

10%

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[email protected] | 020 7347 3461

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05/01/2016 © Ipsos MORI

Further information is available here

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3167/Halifax-Housing-Market-Confidence-Tracker.aspx

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