ipsos mori scotland: independence referendum poll september 2013
DESCRIPTION
With one year to go until polling stations open on referendum day, our latest poll for STV News finds no change in voting intention since May. Among those certain to vote in the referendum, 31% would vote Yes if the referendum was held now compared with 59% who would vote No and 10% who are undecided.TRANSCRIPT
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013
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Independence referendum
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
30%
57%
14%
All
‘Yes’ Change
since May
+2
31%
59%
10%
Certain to vote
‘Yes’ Change
since May
0
Yes
No
Undecided
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – certain to vote
Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
31%
59%
10%
Certain to vote
‘Yes’ Change
since May
0
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13
Yes No Undecided
59%
31%
10%
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 73% (659). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
35%
65%
All
34%
66%
Certain to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
33%
67%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
38%
62%
33%
67%
33%
67%
Yes No
All definitely decided
and certain to vote
(Feb-Sep)
Yes
No
No Change
since May
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Floating voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th
September 2013
39%
61%
All giving a voting intention but may change their mind
35%
31%
34%
All undecided – inclined to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
Undecided
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here Support for independence – long-term trend
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
ence
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
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Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
40%
54%
24%
64%
40%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Men Women
% voting Yes
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Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
Yes
No
29%
62%
37%
51% 12%
30%
61% 9%
30%
61% 9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
42%
45%
22%
69%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
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14%
80% 6%
Voting intention by party support
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
Yes
No
68%
21%
16%
75% 9%
1% 98%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 9th – 15th September 2013
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless
otherwise stated
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