ipsu - session 8 stellenbosch university

Equity & Efficiency in South African Primary Schools

A Preliminary Analysis of SACMEQ III South AfricaIPSU - Session 8Stellenbosch University

2

• Give background to SA education system

• What are major fault-lines in our education system?

• What is extent of underperformance of SA school system? (Regionally & Internationally)

• What factors drive underperformance of SA school system?

Aims for today

Lucky you!!

3

Social Security in SA

2 main components:

1. Occupational (social) insurance • Retirement benefits, some unemployment insurance, medical benefits (for the better

skilled)• Only 40% of the labour force is covered due to high unemployment

2. Social assistance (13.3%)

1. Child Support Grant (CSG) R260/month I. Means test {cannot earn > R2600/month)

2. Old Age Pension (OAP) R1140/monthI. {cannot earn > R3740/month)

3. Disability Grant (DG) R1140/monthI. {cannot earn > R3740/month)

4. {Foster Child Grant R740/month}

Targeting?? Means testing? BIG?

SA’s dualistic school system and labour marketHigh productivity jobs &

incomes• ±10% of labour force – mainly

professional, managerial & skilled jobs • Requires graduates, good quality

matric, or good vocational skills • Historically mainly whites

Low productivity jobs & incomes• Often manual or low skill jobs• Limited or low quality education • Minimum wage can exceed their

productivity

High quality schools• ±10% of schools, mainly ex-white,

but racial composition changed• Produce strong cognitive skills • Teachers well qualified, schools

function well, good assessment, parents involved

Low quality schools• Produce very weak cognitive skills• Teachers less qualified, de-motiva-

ted, many schools dysfunctional, weak assessment, little parental involvement, strong union presence

• Mainly former black (DET) schools

• Big demand for good schools, despite fees

• A few schools cross the divide

• Vocational training

• Affirmative action

• Some talented, motivated or

lucky students manage the

transition

5

School’s in SA

Public schools

From: South African Child Gauge 2008/9Available www.ci.org.za

http://www.ci.org.za/

7

2) South Africa’s performance in INTERNATIONAL context

Mean Maths score in TIMMS 2003 (Grade 8)

0100200300400500600700

Literacy score in PIRLS 2006

565

500

405

302

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Rus

sia

Hon

g K

ong

Can

ada:

Alb

erta

Sing

apor

eC

anad

a:B

riti

sh…

Lux

embo

urg

Can

ada:

Ont

ario

Ital

yH

unga

rySw

eden

Ger

man

yN

ethe

rlan

dsB

elgi

um (F

lem

ish)

Bul

gari

aD

enm

ark

Can

ada:

Nov

a Sc

otia

Lat

via

Uni

ted

Stat

esE

ngla

ndA

ustr

iaL

ithu

ania

Chi

nese

Tai

pei

Can

ada:

Que

bec

New

Zea

land

Slov

ak R

epub

licSc

otla

ndF

ranc

eSl

oven

iaP

olan

dSp

ain

Isra

elIc

elan

dM

oldo

vaB

elgi

um (F

renc

h)N

orw

ayR

oman

iaG

eorg

iaM

aced

onia

Tri

nida

d &

Tob

ago

Iran

Indo

nesi

aQ

atar

Kuw

ait

Mor

occo

Sout

h A

fric

a

10

% below low international benchmark (400) in PIRLS 2006 (Gr.4; in SA Gr.5)

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 15 16 18

34 36 40

46

67 72 74

78

0

20

40

60

80

Hon

g K

ong

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

herl

ands

Belg

ium

(Fle

mish

)Li

thua

nia

Rus

sia

Ital

ySw

eden

Latv

iaA

ustr

iaC

anad

aSi

ngap

ore

Hun

gary

Ger

man

yC

hine

se T

aipe

iD

enm

ark

Uni

ted

Stat

esFr

ance

Bulg

aria

Slov

ak R

epub

licSl

oven

iaSp

ain

Engl

and

Scot

land

Pola

ndIc

elan

dN

ew Z

eala

ndBe

lgiu

m (F

renc

h)N

orw

ayM

oldo

vaIs

rael

Rom

ania

Geo

rgia

Mac

edon

iaTr

inid

ad &

Tob

ago

Iran

Indo

nesia

Qat

arK

uwai

tM

oroc

coSo

uth

Afr

ica

% of SA students exceeding performance at 75th percentile of developed countries (“who would ‘make it’ economically in developed

countries")

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Objections to international comparison:

• It’s wrong to compare SA to OECD countries

• SA is still recovering from apartheid

• SA is underperforming due to poverty

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3) South Africa’s performance in REGIONAL context (SACMEQ)

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• Southern and East African Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality

• Research capacity & technical skills of educational planners• Conditions of schooling and quality of education • Grade 6 (13 yrs)

• SACMEQ II (SA) - 2000• Schools (169) Teachers (322) Students (3163)

• SACMEQ III (SA) - 2007• Schools (392) Teachers (1163) Students (9083)

• Literacy Test – 55 MCQ• Numeracy Test – 49 MCQ• HIV/AIDS Knowledge test – 86 T/F

• Demographic / Home background / Schooling - 64 Questions

SACMEQ data 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

15

SA in regional context?

Malawi

Zambia

Lesotho

Mozambique

Uganda

South Afric

a

Namibia

Zimbab

we

SACMEQ

III

Botswan

a

Zanzib

arKen

ya

Swazi

land

Mauriti

us

Seych

elles

Tanzan

ia300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Mean Reading & Maths (SACMEQ III)

Mean - ReadingMean - Maths

Mea

n Re

adin

g/M

aths

Sco

re

R - 10th/15 M – 8th/15

16

Performance low AND unequal

Zambia

South Afric

a

Malawi

Lesotho

Mozambique

Namibia

Uganda

Zimbab

we

Botswan

a

SACMEQ

III

Zanzib

ar

Seychell

es

Mauriti

usKen

ya

Swazi

land

Tanzan

ia300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Mean reading score for the poorest 25% of students

Mea

n re

adin

g sc

ore

Malawi

Zambia

Lesotho

Uganda

Mozambique

Namibia

SACMEQ

III

Swazi

land

Zanzib

ar

Botswan

a

Zimbab

weKen

ya

South Afri

ca

Tanzan

ia

Seych

elles

Mauriti

us300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Mean reading score for the wealthiest 25% of students

Mea

n re

adin

g sc

ore

14th/15

4th/15 NER?

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Placing SA in regional context

18


Rural13th /15

19


Urban9th /15

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3) Not only does SA’s school system perform poorly, it is also highly unequal

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SA in regional context

WCA

LIM

22

Descriptive analysis

23

Competency Levels

020

4060

8010

0P

erce

nt

5 4 3 2 1Quintiles of School Socio-economics Status

L1 - Pre Numeracy L2 - Emergent Numeracy

L3 - Basic Numeracy L4 - Beginning Numeracy

L5 - Competent Numeracy L6 - Mathematically Skilled

L7 - Concrete Problem Solving L8 - Abstract Problem Solving

Maths Competency Levels

020

4060

8010

0

Per

cent

5 4 3 2 1Quintiles of School Socio-economic Status

L1 - Pre Reading L2 - Emergent Reading

L3 - Basic Reading L4 - Reading for Meaning

L5 - Interpretive Reading L6 - Inferential Reading

L7 - Analytical Reading L8 - Critical Reading

Reading Competency Levels

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

Cum

ulat

ive

Pro

babi

lity

0 2 4 6 8Reading competency Levels 1-8

CDF School SES Quintile 1 CDF School SES Quintile 2CDF School SES Quintile 3 CDF School SES Quintile 4CDF School SES Quintile 5

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

Cum

ulat

ive

Pro

babi

lity

0 2 4 6 8Maths competency Levels 1-8

CDF School SES Quintile 1 CDF School SES Quintile 2CDF School SES Quintile 3 CDF School SES Quintile 4CDF School SES Quintile 5

24

Descriptive analysis

25

020

4060

8010

0P

erce

nt

WCA GTN NCA NWP FST MPU KZN ECA LMPProvinces






020

4060

8010

0

Per

cent

WCA GTN NCA FST NWP KZN MPU ECA LMPProvinces





Maths Competency Levels 1- 8

020

4060

8010

0

Per

cent

LARGE CITY SMALLTOWN RURAL ISOLATEDSchool Location





Maths Competency Levels

020

4060

8010

0

Per

cent

LARGE CITY SMALLTOWN RURAL ISOLATEDSchool Location






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Viva Mzansi

• Grade 6 13 years olds• Complete and utter disgrace – government failure on a

national scale• Wholesale failure of the government to provide the most basic

tool needed for mobility, or even dignified living.

27.2% 40.2%

1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

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Primary school: PIRLS (Gr 5) reading scores by school type

0.0

01.0

02.0

03.0

04.0

05kd

ensi

ty re

adin

g te

st s

core

0 200 400 600 800reading test score

African language schools English/Afrikaans schools

NB correlation between race and wealth

Blacks Coloureds Indians Whites Total 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pass Matric Maths passes Endorsements HG Maths passes A-aggregates

Secondary school: Matriculants’ performance by race, 2007

Through-put – racial disparities

Proportion of 16-17 years-olds who have completed Grade 9

Source: General Household Survey 2009; own analysis

Black Coloured Indian/Asian White SA0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

58%

70%

94%90%

62%

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Multivariate analysis

• svy regressions• Stratification (Province)• Clustering (School)

• Education production function approach• Explaining variation in Numeracy and Literacy

• Sample selection issues around ‘teacher test-score’

• Reading – of 498, 83 (17%) did not write• Maths – of 498, 97 (20%) did not write• Run regressions with & without teacher test-score

variable• (Not shown here)

• Opportunity we can’t pass up

1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

31

Results?

• Frequency of English spoken at home

• Caveat – SACMEQ III tests conducted in English/Afrikaans (LOLT?)

• Socioeconomic Status (SES)• MCA 31 possession questions • Non-linear – wealth has a greater

effect at high levels of wealth• SSES > SES• SSES

• Preschool education

• Frequency of grade repetition

• Frequency of homework • +++ Once/Twice per week or ‘most

days’

• Reading Textbook availability

With

in p

olicy

co

ntro

l

{ +- Mean 510 ; SD 100 }

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Results (cont.)

• Teacher knowledge?

• Intuition? Common sense?

• Binding constraints

1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Concluding points

Specifically• Provide a more nuanced picture of national/provincial performance• Identified 5 correlates with math/reading performance

1. Frequency of English spoken at home2. SES & SSES3. Preschool education4. Grade repetition5. Homework6. Reading textbook

• Surprisingly low impact of teacher knowledge (?) More research needed.

More generally:• Confirming previous studies: SA’s performance is disgracefully

poor and highly unequal

• If this data is legitimate (and we think it is – c.f. ANA’s) why aren’t people striking?!

1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Thank you & Questions?

350

.1.2

.3.4

Den

sity

400

500

600

700

Stu

dent

Rea

ding

/Mat

h sc

ore

-2 -1 0 1 2SES

Lowess curve Reading Lowess curve MathsKernel Density of SES

SACMEQ I I I Sout h Af rica

Lowess curve explaining Reading/Math Scores using SES

Figure 7

37

Provinces % Non-readers % Non-numerateEastern Cape 38.6 50.3Freestate 22.3 38.1Gauteng 11.6 20.5KwaZulu-Natal 28.4 44Limpopo 49 60.6Mpumalanga 28.4 43.8Northern Cape 21.4 37.1North West 21.9 38.1Western Cape 5.1 15Total 27.2 40.2

Quintiles of School SES % Non-readers % Non-numerateQuintile 1 44.7 58.7Quintile 2 34.4 48.9Quintile 3 30.4 47.4Quintile 4 20.1 35.4Quintile 5 1.4 4.6Total 27.2 40.2

School Location % Non-readers % Non-numerateIsolated 38.8 56.2Rural 41.3 55.2Small town 16.7 32.9Large city 11.4 20.7Total 27.2 40.2

ipsu - session 8 stellenbosch university

Documents

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placing sa

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sa education systemwhat

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regional context sacmeq