ipv4 address lifetime · sanog iv presented by nurani nimpuno, apnic research activity conducted by...
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IPv4 Address LifetimeSANOG IV
Presented by Nurani Nimpuno, APNIC
Research activityconducted by Geoff Huston
and supported by APNIC
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Are we running out of IP addresses?
• Recent media reports claiming we are running out of IP addresses– Some claim we’ve already run out in some
parts of the world
• But what are the facts?– Is the IPv4 sky falling?
• Geoff Huston, chief scientist at APNIC, has studied the IPv4 consumption rates
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Modeling the Process1. IETF definition of IPv4
– Source: IETF standards (RFCs)• Delegation of address space for IANA administration
2. IANA allocations to RIRs– Source: IANA IPv4 Address Registry
• Allocation of /8 blocks to RIRs and others
3. RIR allocations to ISPs– Source: RIR Stats files
• Allocation of blocks to LIRs
4. ISP announcements – Source: BGP routing table
• Amount of address space advertised
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IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
Unicast, 219.9, 86%
1. IETF Delegations – IPv4
Breakdown of IPv4 address Space by /8 block equivalents
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IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
IANA Pool, 89, 35%
IANA Allocated, 130.9, 51%
IANA Allocations - Current
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IANA Allocations - HistoricalIANA Allocated IPv4 /8 Address Blocks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
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RIR Allocations - Current
IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
IANA Pool, 89, 35%
RIR Pool, 14, 5%
Assigned, 116.9, 46%Allocated
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RIR Allocations - HistoricalRIR Assigned IPv4 /8 Address Blocks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
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BGP Routing Table• The BGP routing table spans a set of
advertised addresses– Representing addresses in use by ISPs
• A similar analysis of usage and projection can be undertaken on this data
• Assumption: BGP routing table represents actual IP address usage– Therefore it “drives” the other trends
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BGP Routing Table - Current
IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
IANA Pool, 89, 35%
RIR Pool, 14, 5%
Assigned, 42.4, 17%
Advertised, 74.5, 29%
Allocated
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BGP Announcements - HistoricalBGP Table - Address Span
0
50
100
150
200
Nov/
99
Jan/
00
Mar
/00
May
/00
Jul/0
0
Sep/
00
Nov/
00
Jan/
01
Mar
/01
May
/01
Jul/0
1
Sep/
01
Nov/
01
Jan/
02
Mar
/02
May
/02
Jul/0
2
Sep/
02
Nov/
02
Jan/
03
Mar
/03
May
/03
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Combining the DataIPv4 Address Space
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
IANARIRBGP
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Recent DataIPv4 Address Space
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03
IANARIRBGP
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Projections
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Projections – IANA & RIR Allocations
• Any projection is very uncertain because of:
– Sensitivity of allocation rate to prevailing RIR policies
– Sensitivity to any significant uptake up of new applications that require end-to-end IPv4 addressing vs use of NATs
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Projections – BGP Data• 3 year data baseline
– Much shorter baseline than the IANA and RIR projections
– Considerable uncertainties with this projection
• First order differential of total BGP announcement– Until 2000, exponential growth– Since 2000, oscillating differential and overall
deceleration– Last 6 months, differential approaching 0 (i.e. no
growth)• Linear fit seems most appropriate for this data
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Process model - exponential
2020 2022
0
32
64
96
128
160
192
224
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Jan-24 Jan-26 Jan-28
IANARIRBGP
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Process model - exponential
2020 2022
2029
0
32
64
96
128
160
192
224
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Jan-24 Jan-26 Jan-28
IANARIRBGPUnnann.RIR pool
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Process model - linear
2047
2031 2037
0
32
64
96
128
160
192
224
Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Jan-25 Jan-30 Jan-35 Jan-40 Jan-45
IANARIRBGP
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Methodology and Caveats• Projection of based on 2000-2003 data
–IANA and RIR allocation practices –BGP-based demand model
• Incorporating–RIR unallocated pool–Total address space including allocated but
unannounced• Exponential growth model
–Address space lasts until 2022–(or 2029 if all unannounced space recovered)
• Linear growth model–Address space lasts until 2037 (or 2047)
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Some Big Issues• This is just a model - reality will be different!
• Will the BGP routing table continue to reflect allocation rates?
• Is the model of the unannounced pools and RIR holding pools appropriate?
• Externalities…–What are the underlying growth drivers (applications and
services) and how are these best modeled?–What forms of disruptive events would alter this model, and to
what extent?
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Concluding thoughts…• IP address management
– Result of 20 year evolution on the Internet• Supported Internet growth to date
• We are not running out of IP addresses now– But impossible to predict future
• Policies change• New technologies can emerge• Market behaviour can change
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What about IPv6?
• RIRs support the deployment of IPv6 – Transition will take time
• Necessary to start now• IPv4 was slow to start, but grew exponentially
over the last 10 years– Don’t get left behind!
• Be future ready!
• Responsible management essential to keep the Internet running
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Questions?
[email protected]://www.potaroo.net
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcolumn/2003-07-v4-address-lifetime/ale.pdf