Iran Case Study for Contribution to GARUNDP RCB-UNISDR WS, BKK, 5-6 Nov 2008

Country Context, a. socio-economic and development profile: Related/Useful HD Indicators, UNDP HDR 2007/2008

Population: 79.5 m (71.9 % urban) HDI: 0.759 Rank: 94Less than two percent and 7.3% of people live with one $ and two $ per day respectivelyHPI rank: 30Gini Index: 43Gender DI: 0.750 Rank: 84Adult Literacy Rate, above15 Y 1995-2005 F/M: % 76.8/88Combined Adult Literacy Rate, above15 Y 1995-2005 F/M: % 73/73Life expectancy: 69.5Earn Income F/M: 4.475/11.363 PPP 2005GDP 2005: $ 189.8 bPPP: $ 543.8 bGDP Per Capita: $ 2,781PPP Per Capita: $ 7,968Growth 1975-2005: -0.2 1990-2004: +2.3, the best year: 1975Average Annual Change in consumers price index, 1990-2005 : 21.3Average Annual Change in consumers price index, 2004-2005 : 13.4Unemployment, thousands: 2,556Unemployment, % of labor force: 11.5, F/M: 170%

a. Socio-economic and development profile• the Middle East's second largest economy, after Saudi Arabia. • the second largest OPEC oil producer • the world's second largest gas reserves • During the 25 years of post revolutionary period, life expectancy rose from 56 to 69 years, primary school enrollment

rates rose from 60 to 90 percent, and the number of children dying before the age of one fell from 122 to 35 per 1000 live births.

• Reduction of poverty from 47 percent in 1978 to 16 percent in 1999. • Illiteracy fell from 36 percent in 1990 to 19.2 percent in 2003, while the gender gap in education is closing, with only

slight differences in literacy and enrollment. Development Challenges

• per capita income fallen by 50 percent during the same period• unemployment has remained high (around 15 percent) with a strong correlation between poverty and unemployment. • The World Bank reports that as Iran starts focusing on encouraging employment and empowerment rather than the

traditional approach of charitable transfers and handouts, progress should be made. • Oil price-dependent economy of Iran is heavily dependent, as the upturn that began in 2000 has allowed the country to

reduce its foreign debts and reinitiate economic reforms. • Current Gov is conducting a range of reforms in areas of boosting privatization, reducing bank interests, easing loan

distribution and allocation procedures for small entrepreneurs, investment incentives, exmption of taxation in deprived areas, taxation for added-value, diversification of the oil-driven economy, and creation of jobs for a rapidly growing population facing high unemployment rates.

•

Development Challenges

• Trend in Reducing Income and Purchase Power since 1973

• Highly Oil Price-dependent Economy• Negative balance between import, export• Job Creation for youth (50% of the population)• National Security Issues with regard to the

current international political situation (sanctions, isolation)

The I. R. of Iran located approximately between 48E and 62E and 26N and 36N.Its neighbors consist of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Armenia in the north, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east and Turkey and Iraq in the west.The country is mainly arid or semi-arid, except the northern coastal areas, the climate is extremely continental.The average annual rainfall is about 240 mm.

Political Map of I.R.Iran Seismic Hazard Map of Iran

Climatic Classification of Iran Flood Hazard Map of Iran

Distribution of Landslides (Min of Agr)

Weather Systems and Topography of The I. R. of Iran

Damaged Area Caused by Drought Disaster (1990-2002)

Source: NCNDR and CRI, 2002

No. of Damaged Livestock Caused by Drought Disaster (1990-2002)

Source: NCNDR and CRI, 2002

Hazard Group / Time bound

• Time: 1986-2007

• Hazard Group:

– Natural hazards

• Geologic hazards

• Climatic hazards

• Data verification process

Occurrence of natural hazards by type, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

1

1

1

1

2

9

25

36

57

67

89

122

195

2498

3455

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Frost

Liquefaction

Rains

Tornado

Strong wind

Avalanche

Forest fire

Drought

Hailstorm

Snowstorm

Thunder storm

Landslide

Storm

Flood

Earthquake

• No of events: 6,559

• Death: 74,019

• Injured: 141,918

• Affected people: 38,835,621

• Affected houses: 508,301

• Avg. death/year: 3,364.5

• Avg. injury/year: 6,448.1

Source: DesInventar

Disaster Impacts, 1986-2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Climatic

Geologic

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tornado

Thunder storm

Strong wind

Storm

Snow storm

Rains

Liquefaction

Landslide

hail storm

Frost

Forest fire

Drought

Avalanche

Trends in occurrence by hazard group, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

Trends in occurrence of climatic hazards, excluded flooding, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

Hazard occurrence by Ostan (left) and Shahrestan (right), I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

94.9 98.7

73.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Death Injury Building damage

Perc

ent

Earthquake Other natural hazards

4.5 1.2 26.90

20

40

60

80

100

Death Injury Building damage

Perc

ent

Flood Other natural hazards

Comparison death, injury and building damage or destruction caused by earthquakes and other

natural hazards, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

Comparison death, injury and building damage or destruction caused by floods and other

natural hazards, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

No of death per 10,000 inhabitants by Ostan (left) and Shahrestan (right) and hazard group, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

No of building damaged and destroyed by Ostan (left) and Shahrestan (right) and hazard group, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

Comparison of hazard occurrence and death between 1986-1996 and 1997-2007, I.R.Iran

)Left: Geologic hazards, Right: Climatic hazards)

Number of hazard events and death due to all-natural hazards by death class, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

Death class No of fatal events % Cum% No of Death % Cum%

1-50 456 95.40 95.40 2,044 2.76 2.76

51-100 8 1.67 97.07 610 0.82 3.59

101-500 9 1.88 98.95 1,817 2.45 6.04

501-1000 2 0.42 99.37 1,577 2.13 8.17

>1000 3 0.63 100.00 67,971 91.83 100.00

Total

478 100.00 74,019 100.00

Cumulative percent of event occurrence and death due to geologic (left) and climatic (right) hazards by death class, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

82.189.3 91.1

94.6100.0

0.3 0.7 1.1 3.3

100.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1-50 51-100 101-500 501-1000 >1000

Death class

Cu

mu

lativ

e p

erc

en

t

Event Death

97.16 98.10 100.00

49.7657.45

100.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

1-50 51-100 101-500

Death class

Cu

mu

lativ

e p

erc

en

t

Event Death

Cumulative percent of event occurrence and death due to all-hazards by death class, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

95.4 97.1 99.0 99.4 100.0

2.8 3.6 6.0 8.2

100.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1-50 51-100 101-500 501-1000 >1000

Death class

Cu

mu

lativ

e p

erc

en

tEvent Death

Damage category

No of damage events % Cum% No of

building % Cum%

1-500 742 89.61 89.61 53,225 10.47 10.47

501-1000 36 4.35 93.96 26,958 5.30 15.77

1001-5000 38 4.59 98.55 88,020 17.32 33.09

5001-10000 4 0.48 99.03 26,692 5.25 38.34

>10000 8 0.97 100.00 313,406 61.66 100.00

Total 828 100.00 508,301 100.00

Number of hazard events and houses affected due to all-natural hazards by destruction class, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

68.373.2

87.8 90.2

100.0

2.6 3.3

11.915.5

100.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1-500 501-1000 1001-5000 5001-10000 >10000

Damage class

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

ent

Event Building damage

92.096.2 99.7 100.0

31.8

49.6

90.4

100.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1-500 501-1000 1001-5000 5001-10000

Damage class

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

ent

Event Building damage

Cumulative percent of event occurrence and building damage & destruction due to geologic (left) and climatic (right) hazards by damage class, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

Cumulative percent of event occurrence and building damage & destruction due all-hazards by damage class, I.R.Iran, 1986-2007

89.694.0

98.6 99.0 100.0

10.515.8

33.138.3

100.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1-500 501-1000 1001-5000 5001-10000 >10000

Damage classC

um

ula

tive

pe

rce

nt

Event Building damage

Methodology- DesInventar: The DesInventar data of events in Iran was collected and entered into the system with the support of the Gov-UNDP Joint National 5-Y Programme: Strengthening Capacities for DRM in I.R.Iran (2005-2010). The DesInventar project started in June 2006 and the historical databank was entered the system in . Sources: NDTF and other national database among isolated organizations, newsletters

- Gov institutions databases and reports including IIEES, Iran Geosciences Database, Min of Agr/FRWSO (droughts), Min of Power (Floods)

- Provincial HDRIs by the adopted methodology and outlines of study and outlinesAccess to one Household Panel (Dr. Isfahani) was resolved with Iran SC but the time did not allow to assess any correlation between shock and poverty at household levelProxies, statistical tests for assessing significance of correlations between different factors

Challenges• Availability of data on number of study factors, access to data (household panel), willingness to share data (NDMO), scattered (conflicting) data

among various large number of actors• Although verification was conducted for almost over 8,000 data cards by the NDMO but still they do not trust• Ownership/limited capacity issues in NDMO• Capacity of SPAC, the Prog Exe Agency to coordinate within the Gov while the MFA did not want UN to play a key even supporting role in this regard• Security/conservative concerns to publish any report from Iran which might be different from the picture Gov makes from the situation • Missing the U/R, gender-disaggregated data, exact location of the events• No reliable data in all events on affected people• No reliable data on injuries• Time limitations

Key messages• New subjects for research on assessing link between

poverty/CC/DR at household level• Need for tracking indirect impacts (death, wasting, stunting etc) of

climatologically disasters such as droughts and floods by DesInventar/public surveillance systems/national census

• Need for Gender specific data on disaster risks• In Iran where the pattern of risks is more intensive, need for

strengthening governance system to build resilient buildings/infrastructures is more critical to reduce risks of disaster with seismic hazards

• In the case of climatic hazards/disasters , where correlation between loss of income and event occurrence is higher, strengthening empowerment measures for low income groups than direct compensation of loss is required.

Way Forward

• Build stronger ownership of the national institutions

• Get the Gov principle agreement with/confirmation over the Iran contribution to the final report (max a half-one page box)

• Stronger advocacy• Link up the DesInventar and GRIP• Link up with other HD-related analytical reports• Public launch of the key messages

• Thank you