iran's 20-year perspective document & iran's foreign relations

7/31/2019 Iran's 20-Year Perspective Document & Iran's Foreign Relations

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Irans 20-YearIrans 20-Year

Perspective DocumentPerspective Document&&

Irans Foreign RelationsIrans Foreign Relations

Conference on

Irans 20-Year Perspective Document and PublicParticipationSharif University of Technology

Abbas MalekiMay, 18, 2005


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IRAN hasIRAN has

1% of the worlds population,7% of the worlds natural reserves

including-10% of the global proven oil reserves

-16% of the worlds natural gas resources.

130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons)27 trillion cm gaswhich means $3000 billions


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Counties with Oil Reserves >Counties with Oil Reserves >

1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse


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What would be Iran after 20What would be Iran after 20

Years?Years?The first country in the region at

economic, scientific and technology levels

line of thinking, i.e. the prioritization ofbecoming an economic and technologicalpower over other policy areas, is veryevident in Irans 20-Year Perspective

Document which has produced the firstever official long-term macro strategy ofthe Islamic Republic.


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Iran and its SubregionsIran and its Subregions

Middle East Persian Gulf

South West Asia Central Asia,

Caucasus, andAfghanistan

Caspian Basin


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Desired Iranian SocietyDesired Iranian Society

It describes the desired Iranian societyfor the year 2025 as follows:

Secure, independent and powerfulProgressiveKnowledge-basedEconomic growth based on a large portion

of social capitalGrowth of social capital through educationSociety capable of steady economic

capacity building


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Economic and TechnologicalEconomic and Technological

PowerPowerThe aim to become an economic and

technological power is at the heart ofIrans new understanding of Irans foreignand security relations.

In other words, a consolidation of Iranseconomic significance, especially on a

regional and international scale, wouldimprove Irans foreign relations andnational security standing.


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3 Scenarios for Irans Future3 Scenarios for Irans Future

Expansionism,Isolationism,

Pro DevelopmentThe 20-Year Perspective calls for Iran tobecome an economic and technologicalpower, underscores the Islamic

Republics desire to give economicdevelopment priority over other policyareas.


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I. R. Irans GoalsI. R. Irans Goals

While the interrelation between economicpower and foreign interaction is disputed

by some analysts and intellectuals, thereare good reasons to believe that the IslamicRepublic of Iran is pursuing an agenda ofeconomic growth and technological

advancement in order to achieve one ormore of the following goals:


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I. R. Irans Goals (2)I. R. Irans Goals (2)

Increase the regimes legitimacy among theIranian society through improved economicconditions and higher efficiency;

Consolidate Irans regional and internationalposition by projecting a greater significance bothas an engine of regional economic stability, andalso as one of the key suppliers of energy in atense global energy market;

Secure the international respect that has beenmissing in Irans international relations.


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Five-Year Plans FociFive-Year Plans Foci

While the document outlines the variouspolicies in the fields of culture, socio-

political developments, foreign policy,defense, economy and environment, it alsodetermines the foci of the five-year plansthat will be drafted in the 20-year period.


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Orientations of the four upcomingOrientations of the four upcoming

five-year plansfive-year plans-Realization of fast-pace and sustainable growth;-Generation of sustainable employment opportunities and reduction of unemployment figures;-Creation of a competitive market environment and facilitation of Irans competitiveness on an international scale;-Promotion of efficiency growth, especially the efficiency of Total Factor Production (energy, capital, human

resources, water etc.)

-Proactive interaction with the rest of the world in all fields and mutual

interrelationship between the global economy and the Iranian economy;-Promotion of entrepreneurship as well as innovative initiatives and technological and research capacity building;-Provision of food security through self-sufficiency in agricultural production;-Development of a diverse, knowledge-based economy driven by human capital and modern technologies;

-Active presence in regional and international markets and participation in theinternational division of labor;

-Generation of incentives for non-oil exports and promotion of all products that are internationally competitive;

-Creation of a market environment that attracts the domestic and international

business community as well as entrepreneurs focusing on security, sustainabilityand respect for material and intellectual property rights;

-Focus on Irans competitive and comparative advantages and the creation of new advantages;-Containment of inflation and promotion of growing purchasing power for the lower and medium income classes;-Promotion of the role of the cooperative sector through facilitation of this sectors access to market intelligence,

technology and facilitation of greater interaction between various cooperatives;-Promotion of the role of the private and cooperative sectors in all economic activities by limiting the government role

to presence in the key sectors mentioned in Article 44 of the Constitution and by making the regulatory role of thegovernment as efficient as possible.


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Irans Foreign policy PreferencesIrans Foreign policy Preferences

The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makesclear Irans preferences in foreign policy.

Four groups of countries are ranked in preference:(1) Irans neighbours;

(2) Muslim countries;

(3) Third World countries;

(4) countries that furnish political, economic,social and/or military needs of Iran.


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Irans New FP during VisionIrans New FP during Vision

Documents EraDocuments EraProvincial: Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq,Bilateral: Japan, Egypt, Brazil

Multilateral: India and TurkmenistanRegional: GCC, ECO, CASCO,International: USA, Russia, EU

Relations with International Agencies: UN,IAEA, UNESCO,


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Irans Membership inIrans Membership in

Regional/InternationalRegional/International

OrganizationsOrganizationsUnited Nations and its institutions

ECO (Economic CooperationOrganization)OPEC (Organization for Petroleum

Exporting Countries)

ICO (Islamic Conference Organization)North-South CorridorD8 (Islamic Developed Countries)

Non-Aligned Movement


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Proposed Clubs for IranProposed Clubs for Iran

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)

Arab League


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A Necessary Dialogue?A Necessary Dialogue?

Asian Identity:

Russia

ChinaIndia

and Iran?


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Energy resourceEnergy resource

peripheryperiphery

Energy demandEnergy demand

heartlandheartland


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Iran and Initiated RegionalIran and Initiated Regional

OrganizationOrganizationPersian States Countries:

Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan

Caspian Cooperation Organization:Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan

Shia Nations Rim:1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain

2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon,

Afghanistan


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Irans Foreign Relations:Irans Foreign Relations:

ProcessProcessLeaderPresident

High National Security CouncilForeign MinistryCabinet

ParliamentExpediency Council


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Irans Foreign Relations:Irans Foreign Relations:

Conceptual ChallengesConceptual Challenges Iran-US Relations Iran-EU Relations

Oil price Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975) Irans share of Hirmand river 3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf Regional Crises Caspian legal regime


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Models for-US Iran TiesModels for-US Iran Ties

IsolationEngagement

Sticks and CarrotsSticksAttack

Mono polar Leadership


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Iran and EuropeIran and Europe

Member ship of each central or Eastern Europecountries to EU means a new demand forEnergy.

Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, mostimportant of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.

In the Cold War era, with political motivation,Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas

pipeline instead of the cheap and costlessIranian gas.


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Iran and Europe (2)Iran and Europe (2)

Now again, because of US extraterritorialrules like ILSA, the oil and gas companiescan not invest more than 20 million dollarsin Iran's energy industries.

The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iranthen Europe is a key project in trilateralcooperation among three regions. Thephysibility study of the two routes fromIran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine hadbeen done.


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Iran and Europe (3)Iran and Europe (3)

-An expanded pipeline consortium withgovernments participation in the Caspian

-Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one

option (TotalFinaElf Project)-Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan).

Dialogue on Human Rights Collective Security in Irans Subregions:

-Persian Gulf

-Caucasus

-The Roof of the World


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World Oil ReservesWorld Oil Reserves

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP

Distribution of proved oil reserves


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World Energy Security (1)World Energy Security (1)

-A perception is World should be concerned aboutits energy security given recent developments inthe Middle East.

-Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East,World has not faced problems with its energysupplies.

-Over these past months, there were never anydisruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulfbeyond Iraq and whats more.


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World Energy Security (2)World Energy Security (2)

Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf OPECproducers significantly increased production to fillthe gap.

-Reality is that the market remains well-supplied. -The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of the

most easily exploited and cost-effective petroleumreserves in the world.

Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirdingthe phenomenal economic rise of India and China.


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Neka-Ray Old and New PipelineNeka-Ray Old and New Pipeline


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Caspian Oil Terminals and NekaCaspian Oil Terminals and Neka


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PIPELINE ROUTES: ANPIPELINE ROUTES: AN

IMPRESSIONIMPRESSIONBottlenecks andPipelines 11 oil pipeline

projects/ 6operational 6 natural gaspipeline projects/2operational. Of particular

notice: CPC BTC TCP


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Hirmand FlowHirmand Flow


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Iran-Iraq New RelationsIran-Iraq New Relations


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Nagorno Karabkh CrisesNagorno Karabkh Crises


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Confrontation between Iran andConfrontation between Iran and

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan


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Conclusions:Conclusions:

Irans Foreign policy is facing seriouschallenges during Irans 20-YearPerspective.

Most of challenges are related to Iranianborders with its neighbors.

Energy demand and supply equilibrium

has dramatic impacts on Iran.United States different approaches to Iran

will change Irans destiny.Looking to East is one option for Iran