ireland construction trends 2010-2018

Produced by Matthew Scott 04/02/2016

1

IRELAND’S ECONOMIC AND POPULATION TRENDS 2010-2015

Ireland’s Population trends 1981 to 2015

As of 2013, Ireland contributed o.06% of the world’s population (4.677 million), with Europe totaling

10.45% representation (742,452,170) in 2013 reducing to 7.40% (709,067,211) in 2050. The countries in

Europe with the highest population representation were Germany 1.14% (82,652,256), Turkey 1.05%

(75,837,020), France 0.89% (64,641,279), The UK 0.88% (63,489,234) and Italy 0.84% (61,070,224). The

world’s population has increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 4.298 billion in 2013, it is estimated to hit 9.4

billion by 2050, with average growth of 75 million per year or 1.1% on the previous year’s number. The

chart below is sourced from Geohive.com breaking down age group’s within Europe from 2013-2015

World Population age breakdown 2013-2015

Europe 0-14 15-44 45-64 65+

Eastern Europe 45,004,062 126,440,413 80,579,024 41,257,154

Northern Europe 17,463,358 39,799,206 26,647,476 17,529,833

Western Europe 29,641,212 70,143,266 53,823,291 36,362,014

Southern Europe 23,501,336 61,908,902 42,130,632 29,245,915

0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000

0-14

45-64

65+

Population breakdown

Southern Europe Western Europe Northern Europe Eastern Europe


2

Ireland

0-14 15-24 25-64 65+

21.69% 12.30% 53.50% 12.60%

As the above two charts show a huge majority of the Irish population is 25-64 (53.50%) with the second

largest age group being 0-14 (21.69%). This provides Ireland with the problem of not only making sure

present demand levels of over half its population is met now, but also preparing and planning to deliver

the expected high demand levels of the future generations. The current 0-14 year olds will be entering

the property market within the next 15-20 years, almost doubling the current proportion of the 65 +

age group (21.69% to 12.60%) in terms of new developments required.

The Irish consensus from 1981-2011 shows the most populated province remains Leinster, with popular

cities such as South Dublin from 199,546 in 1981 to 265,205 in 2011. The province of Leinster increased

from 1,790,521 (1981) to 2,504,814 (2011). The most heavily populated cities were Fingal (swords)

138,479 (1986) to 273,312 (2011), Kildare 104,122 (1981) to 210,312 (2011), Meath (Navan) 95,419 (1981)

to 184,135 (2011) and Wexford 87,449 (1981) to 145,320 (2011).

Munster saw its population of 998,315 in 1981 increase to 1,246,088 in 2011.The most populated cities

being Clare (87,567 to 117,196), Cork (402,465 to 519,032), Limerick (161,661 to 191,809), Kerry

(122,770 to 145,502) and Tipperary (135,261 to 158,754)

Ulster saw an population increase from 230,159 (1981) to 294,803 (2011) with Donegal going from

125,112 (1981) to 161,137 (2011)

The Irish Population has seen major growth from 3,443,405 to 4,588,252 over the last 30 years. Cities

such as Athlone (8,170 to 15,558), LetterKenny (7,186 to 15,387), Naas (11,141 to 20,713) have seen

their overall population double since the first and last consensus.

0-14 15-24 65+


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Immigration and Migration 2010-2015

From the years of 2010 -2015, the European Migration Network reported that Ireland had more citizens

leaving than Immigrants entering the country. Immigration rates have increased from 40,000 in 2010,

with signs of steady growth from 50,000 to 70,000 from 2013 to 2015.The number of EU citizens

entering Ireland has almost doubled since the 2012 levels of 5,000 reaching 9,000 in 2015, there is also a

growing trend amongst the Rest of the World as 2010 levels reported only 3,000 people and by 2013-

2015 it increased from 18,000- 25,000.

In terms of people leaving the country Ireland has seen an decrease of Irish citizens leaving Ireland since

the peak years of 2013 (52,000) recently reporting 49,000 and 34,000 in 2014 and 2015. EU Citizens

trends are going in the opposite direction as 2015 shows 18,000 leaving compared to 8,000 in 2010,

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

who's coming to Ireland 2010-2015

Whos coming into Ireland Emmigrants Whos coming into Ireland Immigrants

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Who's coming to Ireland 2010-2015

Breakdown of the who's coming to Ireland 2010-2015 Irish

Breakdown of the who's coming to Ireland 2010-2015 EU 15

Breakdown of the who's coming to Ireland 2010-2015 Rest of the World

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

who's leaving ireland 2010-2015

who's leaving Ireland 2010-2015 Irish

who's leaving Ireland 2010-2015 EU 15

who's leaving Ireland 2010-2015 Rest of theWorld


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both 2014 and 2015 have seen numbers increase from the previous year. The Rest of the world saw

steady numbers from 2010- 2013 with numbers remaining around the 8,000 to 10,000 mark. As of 2014

the number has increased from 12,000 to 16,000.

Ireland in 2014 held the highest immigration rate in the EU with 1.1 million people worldwide moving to

new countries, this saw their 2012 levels doubled. 13.8% of EU citizens that migrate to Ireland are

unemployed higher than the EU average of 10% (0ut of 240 million people in Europe, 218 million are

employed) Between May 2009 and April 2015 over 147,000 Irish nationals have now moved to a new

country, this meant the Irish represented over 20% of total immigration activity since 2009.New

Zealand is a close second with 14%, while Luxembourg the second highest in Europe with 12% (the

lowest immigration population percentage is Spain at 2%) Western Europe minus Ireland at 17% and

the UK at 7% has an average immigration rate ranging from 5-2%

The Dublin chambers of commerce have found the latest stats on Immigrate workers showing 63%

were on lower wages, with only 36% in a management or superior position, 37% on 23-45,000 Euros,

19% on 45-68,000 Euros and rest on 10-23,000 Euros.


5

Ultra- wealthiest earning Individuals

Dublin is 27th out top 40 cities for ultra-wealthiest high net individuals with London, New York and

Hong Kong being the third most popular. Europe’s ultra-wealthiest high net individuals are worth a

combined 8.35 billion US dollars, across 61,820 individuals up 8.9% from last year. The US currently has

the most individuals and overall value with 74,865 and 10.265 billion US dollars (up 65). The Middle

Eastern and African regions have the biggest growth with 12.99% and 13.1%, the Middle East has a

total value of 995 billion across 5,975 individuals and Africa 395 Billion US dollars across 3,005 people.

To qualify for an ultra- wealthiest high net individual you need 30 million US dollars or more in net

assets. It is reported 79% have more than one resident, 17% inherited wealth and 9% self-made, usually

keep primary residence up to 15 years and secondary property for 10 years.

Total Value (Billion US Dollars)

US Europe Asia

Middle East Latin America Africa

Pacific 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

US

Europe

Asia

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Pacific

Number of Individuals


6

Unemployment stats 2014-2015

Ireland recorded statistics of 23.9% unemployed under 25 and over 25 10%, with an EU 28 average of

23.8% and 10.4%. The top performers within Europe are Germany 7.7% and 4.7%, Malta 11.8% and

4.8% and Denmark 12.6% and 5.5%. The worst performing countries were amongst Greece (52.4% and

24.8%), Spain (53.2% and 22.3%), Croatia (45.5% and 8.9%) and Italy 45.5% and 14.6%)

In 2015 Ireland created around 57,000 new jobs, an average of 1,300 new jobs per week. Some of the

active industries were the scientific and technical sector creating 5,700 new jobs followed closely by

construction (3,300 new jobs) and agriculture (2,700 new jobs). Gerard Brady IBEC senior economist

advised Ireland had one of the youngest population’s in Europe and would be one of the fastest growing

economies over the next 30 years. Ireland faces a big issue as 2014 to 2015 saw 52.8% of the Irish

citizens emigrating from Ireland having third level qualifications over above (around 40,000 people).

This has led to initiatives in the West of Ireland (namely Mayo, Galway and Roscommon) having the

West Action Plan implemented. The new initiative will create 25,000 new jobs in the next four years, as

the region has lost almost 60% of its jobs (24,700 from 2008-2011), Last year was the first time since

2008-2011 that jobs were created (5,000). The plan is to increase the number of start-ups, help increase

local business survival rates and increase exports by 20%.

Over 200,000 people in Ireland are currently unemployed, the EU 28 has 22.159 million in total

(November 2015 levels) overall performance across the EU 28 across 2015 saw 25 of the 28 members

reduce their unemployment rates. The EU 28 in 2000 had 20 million in total unemployed at 9.2%, this

had been reduced to 16.1 million by 2005 (6.8%) and by 2008 to 2010 was down to 6.6 million. In 2013

Europe’s unemployment hit a new high at 26.4 million people (10.99%), this has since decreased to

9.9% by 2014. Ireland is preforming very strong within the EU 28 as the graph above demonstrates

with figures of 21.99% youth unemployment, these figures are far more positive than Greece (51.1%),

Spain (51.7%), Italy (42%) and Portugal (33%). The strongest performers within the EU 28 are

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

European youth under 25 unemployment stats 2015


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Germany (7.2%), Norway (7.9%), Austria (10.2) and Malta (11.1%). Ireland’s youth unemployment

from 2003 to 2007 was stable around 4.7%, from 2009 it hit 12% and continued to rise until 2011

reaching 14.7%. The UK has despite the economic downturn has seen its worst period in 2011 hitting

8.1%, since then has reduced to 6.1% (2014), this is the opposite trend to Denmark who has seen their

youth unemployment grow year on year to 7.4% in 2014 (almost doubling their 2008 levels of 3.7%.)

Dublin accounts for 47% of the GDP, with 840,000 people employed in Dublin region representing over

40% of the total employed people generating 55% of Ireland’s income from the Dublin region. It is

reported that 48% of the 280,000 people employed in Irelands financial, ICT and professional services in

Dublin. Dublin has been able to attract 57% of the international students that study in Ireland, as 78% of

people in Ireland hold a PHD reside in urban areas (Ireland’s current population levels mean that Ireland

has 1 in every 1553 people in the world) American Amcham believe American IT firms will boost the

economy over the next 4 years, with 14,000 new jobs.

Ireland currently ranks 40th out of 64 cities for working with foreigners in 2015, 4th for friendly attitudes

towards foreign residents, 17th work life balance, 24th satisfaction in their career. Enterprise Ireland due

to an improved international economic outlook reported an increase of 10,196 jobs compared to 2014,

surprisingly two thirds were outside of Dublin through food, fintech, business services outsourcing were

the main contributors. Starts ups have paid an important part in this job growth with over 200 in early

stages and a further 500 supported by the Local Enterprise offices (LEO’s).

20,400 individuals started up a new business enterprises in 2014 (ranking Ireland 16th in Europe) with

63.5% of the new business enterprises are yet to employ any staff. These new enterprises will look to

employ staff over the next 5 years, Ireland has a bright future ahead as 39% of business owners are 18-

34 and 6% 18-24. It is believed that 1 in 4 people dream of starting their own business in the future

giving Ireland a ranking of 13th in Europe, for opportunity and motivation. 14% of male entrepreneurs

and 2% women entrepreneurs from early start ups have 75% -100% of their client base being

International, followed closely by 13% male entrepreneurs and 17% female entrepreneurs with 25% -

74% international sales.


8

Average income Europe 2014-2015

Luxembourg appears top of the average income list in both 2014 and 2015 (3189 Euros 2014 and 3149

Euros 2015) The top 5 is completed is by Sweden (2690 Euros 2014 and 2551 Euros 2015), Denmark

(3122 Euros 2014 and 2307 Euros 2015), Finland (2330 Euros 2014 and 2300 Euros 2015) and UK (2597

Euros 2014 and 2253 Euros 2015). Ireland features in 9th amongst the EU 28 with an average of 2160

Euros in 2014 and 2129 Euros in 2015, this fares a lot better compared to Lithuania (524 Euros 2014 and

544 Euros 2015), Romania (398 Euros 2014 and 417 Euros 2015) and Bulgaria (333 Euros in 2014 and 356

Euros 2015).

The EU 28 average in 2014 and 2015 was 1489 and 1469 Euros, Half of the population in Ireland is

making less than 28,500 Euros (with the top 10 per cent of Ireland representing 23.5% and the bottom

10% of total capital earnest) Currently, the average wage across the working 1.9 million Irish is 35,600

Euros. Public sector workers continued to get paid more than private sector workers, despite a 14% pay

cut compared to last year. Entry salaries for graduates are now down to 22,000 Euros lowest since 2004

and takes roughly 18 years to reach an income level of 36,000 Euros.

Income of the top 1% has doubled since the 1980’s, whilst the remaining 90% has seen their income

reduced. The top 1% earn on average 200,000 euros (35,000 people within this group containing 10,000

dual income, 6,000 single earner married couples, and 2,500 single earners). The squeezed middle class

earnt 40-70,000 Euros and represent the top 25% of earners, with social security contributions adding

4.4% of GDP (second lowest in the EU where is there is an medium of 11%). Child care costs in Ireland

remain at 27% of the family income, higher than the EU average of 11% (costs overall is 20% higher

than the rest of the EU) Dublin is the 13th most expensive city to live in with a cost living index of 210

with Cork 30th in List at 173 (the most expensive cities being Zurich (300), Geneva (288) and London

(288)) The cheapest cities to live and work in are Chisinau (Moldova), Novi Sad (Serbia) and Tirana

(Albania) with living cost indexes of 53, 70 and 74.Western European cities dominate the top 50 with

indexes ranging from 300 to 131.

The central statistics office published a report in 2013, called the household and finance consumption

survey documenting the wealth distribution and earnings across the whole of Ireland. The South- East

(Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Waterford and South Tipperary) had an average of 259,000 Euros per

household, 20,000 more Euros than the Mid-West (Clare and Limerick). Dublin was fourth place with

an household income average of 230,000 Euros , its figures being far higher than that of the Border

(Cavan, Donegal, Lietrim, Louth, Monaghan and Sligo) at 190,000 Euros and the West (Galway,

Mayo, Roscommon) 186,000 Euros.


9

Despite Dublin only being fourth place in average household income, it represents 28.3% of total

capital earnt. The South West (Kerry and Cork) and South East round out the top three with total

representation of 15% and 13%.The region with the smallest representation is the Midlands (Laios,

Longford, Offaly, and West Meath) with 6%, placing third for highest household income (235,000

Euros.) The West at the opposite end of the spectrum recorded the lowest household income and

second lowest total capital (7%). Upon reflection of factors such the average income per person,

average income per person per region, wealth distribution and the population of the regions it can be

assumed that a huge majority of the top earners now reside outside of the Dublin area. Dublin due to its

population of 1.2 million holds nearly 39% of the total population, this leads to Dublin becoming the

economic hub of Ireland generating 47% of the overall GDP and employing 40% of the workforce

(840,000). Residents of Dublin face the issue of living in the 13th most expensive in Europe with a cost

index of 210 out of 300. The people residing in Dublin would be more likely to be the 40-70,o00 Euro

earners within the top 25%, rather than the top 1% (200,000 + Euros).

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

South- East Mid-West Midlands Dublin South- West Mid- East Border West

Average household income 2013


10

Average Rent and income percentage spent in the EU 28 2015

The UK has the highest rent in Europe at an average of 902 Euros and also the highest of income spent

on rent 39% (equal with Spain) Ireland occupies second place in the EU 28 chart with 679 Euros and

34% spent on rent. The medium of the group is Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and Belgium around the

600 Euros average, whilst the bottom end of the EU 28 is Latvia (186 Euros), Estonia (251 Euros) and

Lithuania (233 Euros). In terms of income spent on rent the EU 28 ranges from 39% (UK and Spain) to

15% (Lithuania), with a medium percentage of 25-28%.

Overall Ireland Wealth Percentage

Dublin South- West South- East Mid- East Border Mid- West West Midlands


11

House Prices worldwide quarter 1 2014-quarter 1 2015 and the Irish construction Industry

Hong Kong was the top performer with growth of 18.7%, Turkey is a close second at 18.6% with

Ireland in third place at 16.8%. The worst performers were Ukraine (-15.5%), Cyprus (-8.2%), China (-

6.4%), Dubai (-6.1%) and Greece (-6%). Europe had seven of ten of the worst performing countries

were (Ukraine -15.5%, Cyprus -8.2%, Greece -6.1%, Poland -4.9%, Slovenia -4.8%, Italy -0.3% and

France -1.9%) Whilst the top 10 performers (Turkey 18.6%, Ireland 16.8%, Luxembourg +12.1%,

Estonia +11%, Iceland +9.4%, Sweden +8.8%, Norway +7.2%) were particularly strong.

Ireland houses prices were up 2.7% from 2014-2015, with a country average 13.1% (average house price

increasing from 164,000 in 2013 to 204,000 in 2015) As total stock levels reached a nine year low, 25,000

properties for sale nationwide companies to 30,000 the previous year. The nationwide breakdown on

prices was Dublin at 306,613 Euro, Cork City 227,196, Galway City 223,602, Limerick City 145,244 and

Waterford City 129,397

It is reported Ireland needs to build 25,000 new homes per year to meet its growing population trends,

2015 saw only 10,000 new units built (6745 in the first quarter 2015 up 16% same time in the first quarter

2014). There are currently 184,000 units on ghost estates half of which aren’t even in the building stage,

only 35,000 of the units are situated in urban areas. Developers would need to build a minimum of 1,400

new houses per month to get close to the required new housing quota, but due to the high construction

costs and lack of new finance, foreign investment and developers are deciding not to build in Ireland

with only a 40-50% uptake. As of the quarter 3 2015 only 4,000 houses were active on the rental market

lowest number since 2006, this is a bad position for Ireland to be in as at least 50% of the population is

renting and this figure increases year on year (50% is the highest figure for the last 10 years)

2014 saw a total of 43,100 transactions worth a total of 9.3 billion, up to quarter two 2015 17,500

transactions worth 3.6 billion. As of March 2015 25,500 new homes were listed on myhome.ie with

5,550 propertied being listed for sale. The average time a house took to sell was 3 months, falling from

from 5.5 months back in 2012.There were 11,000 new completions in 2014 up from 8300 in 2013.

Cash buyers represent 50% plus of the housing market despite the end of capital tax gains exemptions

in 2014, with mortgage lending at 918 million Euros up 70% from the previous year. The IMF reported

the top 5 countries for available credit are Turkey (+6%), Sweden (+4%) Estonia (+3%) Norway (+3%)

and Malta (+2%). Ireland is the second lowest in Europe with -13%, only beaten by Ukraine -32%, The

countries that are comparable to Ireland are Slovenia -10%, Portugal -8%, Spain -6%, Iceland -5%.

Mortgage applications in 2013 totaled 17,056 transactions, 2014 saw an increase to 25,500 transactions.

In quarter 1 2015 a total of 6,210 transactions have already been processed. The quarter 2 2015 records

highlighted the emergence of cash buyers with nearly 47% of the market, as 8,228 transactions out of

15,435 were cash buyers. From 2013 to 2014 the average mortgage approvals increased from 183,813 to

188,378 (1.2% increase). The peak year for mortgages was 2006 with 114,600 transactions worth a total

of 32 billion, current levels are around 4.7 billion (26,756 transactions). The lowest year of activity was

2011 with 12,900 applications meeting a new low since the 1970’s as reported by the banking federation

of Ireland. The Central banks are looking to lend around 8 billion Euros in 2016 with a projected 11%

growth in 2016, following on from a 29% increase in 2015.


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The Bruce Shaw report looked at completion data between the years of 2004 and 2014, reporting the

following:

Bruce Report Completion report 2004-2014

Annual Housing Completions

Year Social Private

2004 5146 71,808

2005 5559 75398

2006 5208 88211

2007 6671 71356

2008 6801 44923

2009 5344 21076

2010 2069 12539

2011 1231 9295

2012 1061 7472

2013 504 7797

2014 234 7555

As the above chart demonstrates private property is being completed at a much higher rate compared

to social property. The peak year was 2006 with 5208 social and 88,211 private properties being

completed with a combined completion number of 93,419. Since 2007 the completion number has

dipped from 78,027 to 7,789. Social property also faced a decline in activity with levels of 234 in 2014

compared to 6,671 in 2007.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Completions Social v Private

Social Private


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Annual Housing Completions by Type House Apartments

Year House Apartment

2004 60448 16106

2005 62522 18035

2006 73073 19946

2007 58936 18691

2008 38513 12811

2009 21272 5148

2010 12514 2088

2011 9146 1340

2012 7495 993

2013 7379 922

2014 8766 2250

Further to this the Bruce Shaw Report analysed and collected data on the breakdown houses v

apartments completed between 2004- 2014. As the chart below shows there is a huge disparity

between completed houses and apartments, with apartments peaking at 12,811 in 2007 dropping to

below 1000 by 2013 (993 in 2012 and 922 in 2013). By 2014 we see an increase to 2,250 similar to 2010

levels (2,088). Housing completions remained above the 60,000 mark from 2004 to 2006 (60,448 2004,

62,522 2005 and 73,073 2006) representing around 79% of total completions each year. From the years

of 2010 to 2014 numbers dropped below the 10,000 mark with figures of 9,146, 7,495, 7,379 and 8,766.

Despite the drop off Houses have remained around the 88%-80% mark of total completion over the

periods of 2010 to 2014. Apartments accounted for 20.4% of new completions in 2014, reaching fair

higher representation than previous years ranging from 11% to 14% (2010-2014).

The EU 28 in 2014 reported the breakdown of living arrangements was around 25.6% living in semi-

detached houses, 33.7% detached houses and 41% flats. Ireland was amongst the highest for semi-

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual completions by Type


14

detached at 58.3% (Netherlands leads EU 28 with 61.2%), but the lowest in the EU (less than 5%) for

flats/apartments (supporting the declining completion levels of the Bruce Shaw report). In contrast

Spain had 66.5%, followed by Latvia (65.1%) and Estonia (63.8%). Detached houses dwelling in the EU

28 mostly ranged from 25% to 70%, with Ireland around 30% compared to the high levels of Croatia

(72.6%), Slovenia (65.4%), and Hungary (63%). Ireland from 2006 to 2014 has remained building houses

at a far higher rate than flats, mirroring their European neighbours. Home-owned properties remained a

high percentage of property dwellers in the EU 28, with 27.1% owning a house without a mortgage, 43%

with an existing mortgage, 19% renting and 10.8% in affordable housing. The overcrowding rate of

property is around 17.1% with the worst countries being Romania (52.3%), Hungary (44.6%) and Poland

(44.2%), Ireland appears in the bottom three EU 28 countries at 2.8%, not far behind Belgium (2%) and

Cyprus (2.2%)

Construction output from 2008 to 2015 has seen growth in terms of value and percentage of GNP, the

2008 total construction value was 32.5 billion Euros and accounted for 20.2%. Since 2011 the total year

on year value has increased from 9.48 billion Euros to 12.55 Billion Euros in 2015, with the GNP ranging

from 6.8% to 7.6%. The Government are due to invest 2.2 billion in social housing from the periods of

2014 up till 2017 to meet the populations demand for social housing.

In 2014 areas such as Westmeath (+67%), Cork (+88%), Donegal (+50%), Galway (+45%) and Dublin

(+30%) saw increased construction levels, further to this Dublin and Cork accounted for 42% of new

planned applications and 35% of the new completions. Dublin had a total of 5.38 billion Euros worth of

Applications between 2014 and 2015 an 40% increase from the previous year, followed by Leinster up

30% (2.77 billion Euros), Connacht and Ulster up 27% (1.24 billion Euros) Munster on the other hand

saw a 5% decline on the previous year down to 1.88 billion Euros. The average time from the planning

stage to beginning building is 71 weeks, the residential market is the slowest at 132 weeks (with

education being the quickest turnaround time at 49 weeks). Over the first 9 months of 2015 around

11,795 new residential units commenced construction (up 98% from the previous year) with a total

value of 2.09 billion Euros. The good news for the residential construction industry is that potential

projects are up 29% with an estimated 27,750 residential units in planning stage (worth around 5.58

billion Euros).


15

The Environment, Community and Local Government Authority published the housing completions

from quarter 1 to quarter 3 2015. The number of completions increased quarter by quarter beginning

with 2,629 transactions in Quarter 1 and increasing to 3,289 by Quarter 3, the cities with most activity

were Cork, Fingal, Dublin and Galway. 63% of people of Ireland now live in urban areas as of 2015, this

has increased from 50% from the 1980’s (all 26 counties apart from Lietrim have increased their

population). Leinster is responsible for tw0 thirds of population growth since the 1960’s. Urban living in

Ireland is still below the EU average of 75%, but still raises the issue of rural living becoming more

stagnate and under threat as each year passes.

Cork had the highest completion activity in Quarter 3 (289), placing second in Quarter 1 and Quarter

2(230 and 276).

Fingal throughout Quarter 1 and 2 maintained the highest completion output (244 and 318) with a

strong quarter 3 performance (271).

Galway saw its completion activity performance go from strength to strength, posting an increase

Quarter on Quarter (135,147,179).

Dublin City Council was the most active in completions registering a place in the top 5 position in every

Quarter (182,131 and 181).

Cities such as Carlow (36, 48, 51), Westmeath (29, 45, 63) and Cavan (59, 57, 78) displayed low

completion activity compared to the most active cities. All the cities combined posted less completions

in Quarter 1 than Fingal (124 to 244), this trend continued into Quarter 2 (150 to 318). In Quarter 3 the

transactions continued to increase to 192 completions, but still less than Cork with 289 completions.

Wexford (86,114,117), Waterford (60,103,125) and Wicklow (68,115,137) all reported increased

completion activity as the year progressed.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

House Completions Q1-Q3 2015

House Completions 2015 Q1-Q3 2015 Q1 House Completions 2015 Q1-Q3 2015 Q2

House Completions 2015 Q1-Q3 2015 Q3


16

Pre 2014 average European squared metres total per house

Country Total SQ metres Average rooms

Average room size (SQ metres)

UK 85 5.2 16.3

Ireland 88.3 5.3 16.7

Germany 86.7 4.4 19.7

Netherlands 98 4.2 23.3

Denmark 108.9 3.7 29.4

France 88 3.9 22.6

Spain 85.3 4.8 17.8

Italy 90.3 4.1 22

Portugal 83 4.3 19.5

Sweden 89.8 4.7 20.9

Greece 79.6 3.8 20.9

Belgium 86.3 4.3 20.1

Luxembourg 125 5.5 22.7

Finland 76.5 3.6 21.3

AVG 90.7 AVG 4.41 AVG 20.94

The above table is sourced from an independent.ie article in 2015 providing a snapshot of the average

European house prior to 2014. The three countries with the biggest houses were Luxembourg (125 SQ

M), Denmark (108.9 SQ M) and the Netherlands (98 SQ M). Luxembourg had not only the largest

overall houses, but also the most rooms (5.5), Denmark on the other hand had the second lowest

amount of rooms (3.7) and the biggest rooms (29.4 SQ M). The Netherlands, despite recording below

the average room’s figure (4.2) had the second biggest rooms with 23.3 SQ M.

Countries such as Finland (76.5 SQ M and 3.6 rooms) and Greece (79.6 SQ M and 3.8 rooms) appear in

bottom three for both total SQ M and average rooms, whilst having rooms above the average European

size of 20.94 SQ M (21.3 SQ M and 20.9 SQ M).

Ireland had the fifth largest houses in Europe (88.3 SQ M) and the second most rooms (5.3). The

average room size of 16.7 SQ M is comparable to that of the UK with 16.3 SQ M, also mirroring the

number of rooms (5.2).

2014-2015 newly constructed European houses

Country Total SQ metres Average rooms Average room size (SQM)

UK 76 4.8 15.8

Ireland 87.7 5.2 16.9

Germany 109.2 5.1 21.4

Netherlands 115.5 4.1 28.2


17

Denmark 137 3.5 39.1

France 112.8 4.2 26.9

Spain 96.6 5.1 18.9

Italy 81.5 3.8 21.4

Portugal 82.2 4.7 17.5

Sweden 83 4 20.8

Greece 126.4 3.2 39.5

Belgium 119 5.8 20.5

Luxembourg 104.1 5.1 20.4

Finland 87.1 4 21.8

AVG 101.29 AVG 4.47 AVG 23.50

2014 to 2015 saw the average size of European houses increase from 90.7 SQ M to 101.29 SQM along

with the average room size 23.50 SQ M from 20.94 SQ M. The top three countries also change with

Denmark moving from second to first, followed by Greece no longer in the bottom two for overall size

(126.4 SQ M from 79.6 SQ M) then Belgium (119 SQ M from 86.3 SQ M). Denmark’s average house

grew from 108.9 SQ M to 137 SQ M, with bigger rooms (29.4 SQ M to 39.1 SQ M).Greece had the

largest rooms in Europe with 39.1 SQ M (increase from 20.9 SQ M from the pre 2014 stats) Belgium saw

their average rooms rise from 4.3 to 5.8 (with the average room size staying constant 20.1 SQ M and

20.5 SQ M).

The UK (76 SQ M), Italy (81.5 SQ M) and Portugal (82.2 SQ M) were the countries with the smallest

houses. The UK was no longer within the top 3 for average rooms dropping from 5.2 to 4.8 rooms along

with the average room size reducing (16.3 SQ M down to 15.8 SQ M). Italy previously had houses

averaging 90.3 SQ M prior to 2014 decreasing to 81.5 SQ M.This was despite factors such as the

average rooms figure dropping from 4.1 to 3.8 rooms (little change in room size remaining similar at

21.4 SQ m and 22 SQ M). Portugal had the third smallest rooms in Europe at 17.5 SQ M, the two

smallest room averages were the UK (15.8 SQ M) and Ireland (16.9 SQ M).

According to the SCSI, the Irish construction during its peak employed around 19% of the Irish market

back in 2007 (around 386,000 people), since then this number has decreased to 8% (around 160,000) in

2014. The employment levels have seen a reduction year on year from Quarter 1 2008 to Quarter 1 2013

(19% to 7%). Since Quarter 1 2013 to Quarter 3 2014 employment levels remained stable at 7-8%,

employing around 150-160,000 people.

The Daft report in 2015 painted a mixed picture of the residential market, with a stable 2015 in terms of

transactions per quarter ranging from 8,000 to 12,000 (Q1 2015 10,500, Q2 11,150, Q3 12,000 and Q4

8,000). Transactions remained very low between 2010 and 2012 only reaching 6,ooo as a high point

and 4,000 at its lowest, picking up in Quarter 4 2012 (9,000 transactions) . This trend continued with a

slow 2013 until quarter 3 and 4 when transactions increased to 8,000 and 11,500, a strong 2014 followed

on from this with a stronger quarter 1 than previous years (7,000) and reaching new heights in Quarter 4

(16,000). Last year (2015) Quarter 1 saw further improvement at 10,500 transactions but ended on a low

point with 8,000 transactions.


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The number of properties available on the market throughout 2015 reduced in every province with

Leinster having 6,500 in 2015 compared to 7,600 the previous year, Munster 10,000 compared to

12,500, Connacht/Ulster down to 8,000 from 10,000 in 2014. The good news from 2015 was that all

provinces had around 47% to 54% of the properties available selling within 4 months.

The Greater Dublin Area (GDA) only saw 2 areas of Dublin have any signs of growth with 1 bedroom

apartments, Dublin 1 (4.5%) and Dublin 3 (7.7%), whilst the biggest loses where in Dublin 6 (-16.9%),

Dublin 16 (-15.3%) and South County Dublin (-14.6%).

2 bedrooms areas of growth- Dublin 17 (+9.7%), Dublin 10 (+6.1) and Dublin 8 (+5.8%)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4

Transactions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

Transactions


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2 bedrooms biggest loses- Dublin 6 (-5.7%), Dublin 16 (-3.9%) and South County Dublin (-3.1%)

3 bedrooms areas of growth- Dublin 10 (+7.70%), Dublin 8 (+7.1%) and Dublin 24 (+6.5%)

3 bedrooms biggest loses- Dublin 6 (-4.38%), Dublin 2 (-2.8%) and Dublin 16 (-2.4%)

4 bedrooms areas of growth- Dublin 8 (+13.5%), Dublin 10 (+14.2%) and Dublin 24 (+12.9%)

5 bedrooms areas of growth- Dublin 17 (+24.5%), Dublin 10 (+20.4%), Dublin 8 (+19.7%)

5 bedrooms biggest loses- Dublin 1 (-8.7%), Dublin 2 (-6.4%) and Dublin 4 (-0.3%)

Outside of Dublin only Cavan saw any growth in one bedroom apartments at 3.1%, with the biggest

price drops being County Offaly (-13.5%), Carlow (-12.7%), Tipperary (-11.6%). All 2,3,4,5 bedrooms

outside of Dublin saw signs of growth:

2 bedrooms- Cavan (+15.7%), Waterford (+14.4%), Cork (+16.6%) and Clare (+17.1%)

3 bedrooms- Cavan (+22.89%), Lietrim (+18.5%), Clare (+19.89) and Cork (+19.2%)

4 bedrooms- Cavan (+24.4%), Clare (+21%), Leitrim (+20.1%) and Cork (+20.3%)

5 bedrooms- Cavan (+24.9%), Clare (+26.1%), Cork (+25.4%) and Waterford (+23.2%)

The level of vacant homes rose from 140,000 in 2002 to 266,000 in 2014, roughly around 17% of the

Irish property market at the time according to the Environmental Project carried out by the University

College of Dublin. Dublin will require up to 60% of the newly developed properties with Louth, Meath,

Kildare and Wicklow according to Dr Edgar Morgenroth. It is also reported that 60,000 new builds need

to be completed in Dublin by 2021 in line with their population growth, plus with another 180,000

nationwide. NCB Stockholders also believe that from 2006 to 2015 around 65,000 new builds are

required, with an additional 55,000 by 2020.

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

European construction trends 2014- 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


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European construction trends

Construction Output Year Year Year Year Year

Country Spend (Billion Euros) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Germany 285 2.40% 1.80% 0.20% -0.40% 0.30%

France 200 -2.80% -0.40% 1.80% 1.60% 1.66%

UK 177 5.20% 5.19% 3.50% 2.40% 3.12%

Italy 163 -2.20% 1.10% 2.50% 2.80% 3.72%

Spain 63 -2.40% 1.80% 3.60% 5% 6.50%

Netherlands 60 0.30% 3.40% 3.50% 4.79% 5.78%

Switzerland 53 0.80% -0.70% 1.40% 1.59% 1.97%

Norway 46 2.10% 3.90% 2.50% 2.99% 3.80%

Poland 44 4.90% 7.10% 6.29% 6.70% 7.50%

Belgium 39 0.70% 0.00% 1.50% 2.40% 2.93%

Sweden 34 5.30% 1.30% 1.10% 1.60% 2.13%

Austria 32 1.70% 1.00% 1.30% 1.59% 1.91%

Finland 29 -0.20% 1.50% 1.79% 3.20% 4.10%

Denmark 27 2.50% 2.90% 3.50% 3.70% 4.20%

Czech Republic 16 1.00% 2.50% 3.30% 4.00% 4.96%

Portugal 15 -1% 2.50% 3.60% 5.00% 6.55%

Ireland 9 10.10% 9.00% 10.60% 9.20% 9.29%

Hungary 9 14.30% 5.10% 3.80% 2.90% 3.45%

Slovak Republic 4 -0.40% 1.80% 2.70% 3.00% 3.51%

The table and chart above is data from building radar, depicts projected future construction trends of

Europe from 2014 to 2018. In 2013 the “construction 2020” initiative was launched to boost

construction activity throughout Europe, the projected figures in the table above predict positive

growth across the board by 2016. Ireland shows a very strong performance between 2014 and 2018

with almost double digital growth year on year (+10.10%, +9.0%, +10.6% , +9.20% and +9.29%), the

country closest on projected growth is Poland (+4.90%, +7.10%, +6.29%, +6,7% and+ 7.50%). The larger

economies such as Germany (+2.40%, +1.8%, +0.20%, -0.40% and +.030%), France (-2.80%, -.0.40%,

+1.8%, +1.6% and +1.66%) and the UK (+5.29%, +5.19%, +3.5%, +2.4% and +3.12%) show signs of much

smaller growth year on year. Countries with recovering economies such as Spain and Italy will boost

growth from 2015 to 2018 (+6.50% and +3.72%) New residential construction activity across Europe

despite a-3% level drop-off in 2013, will see increased activity from 2014 to 2016 (+0.10%, +2.6% and

+4.7%).Overall construction activity from 2014 to 2020 will produce positive growth peaking at 3% in

2018 and a slight reduction of 2.7% and 2.5% in 2019 and 2020. Total value output of construction will

soon be drawing closer to the 2007 levels peak levels of 1.532 trillion Euros, with 2014 total spend of

1.305 trillion Euros (Ireland contributing 9 billion of this). From 2015 to 2018 we will see further

increased projected spending of 1.412 trillion Euros, 1.450 trillion Euros, and 1.478 trillion Euros.

2014- 0.5% growth


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2015- 1.5% growth

2016- 2% growth

2017- 2.5% growth

2018- 3% growth

2019- 2.7% growth

2020- 2.5% growth

Eurostat produced a construction cost report for Europe covering the years of 2010 to 2014, I am able

to use this data as an great indicator as too why Germany and France had such a high construction

output compared to many other European countries. The reason being construction output was

deemed more desirable, due to reduced construction costs from 2012-2014. The only surprise from this

chart is the UK performance and overall value output as it costs soared from 2013 to 2014, far higher

than that of any other European Country. Both Ireland and Poland where close in growth performance

year on year, their costs on the other hand differ with Poland having negative growth in 2013 and 2014,

Ireland maintained positive growth below 1.0% for both years. The five most expensive countries all

had positive growth above 2.5%, almost three times higher than that of Ireland at 0.7% (the UK 6.4%,

Norway 3.3%, Lithuania 3.2%, Malta 3.0%, and Hungary 2.5%). The UK, Norway and Hungary all

show signs of positive growth year on year from 2014 to 2020 in the building radar table. In Comparison

the countries with the lowest building costs all shared negative growth (Greece -3.1%, Cyprus -1.9%,

Poland -1.0%, Romania -0.5% and Slovenia 0.5%), these countries share a weak performing economy.

Poland had projected high levels of activity with predicted growth of +4.90% to +7.50%, sustaining

growth levels of 6% plus year on year from 2015 to 2020.

Turner and Townsend in 2015 analysed the construction costs per square metre across the world.

Ireland was amongst the most expensive European countries, with only the UK (London) incurring

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Germany France UK Italy Spain Poland Ireland

Construction costs 2010-2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


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higher construction costs. The UK (London) worked out to an average of 3,800 USD per square metre

across all construction builds (apartments, houses, office blocks, warehouses, hospitals, schools and

shopping malls) compared with Ireland at 2,400 USD, similar to the UK outside of London, Germany

and the Netherlands.

New residential builds in Ireland ranged from 1,250 to 1,750 Euros per square meter, whilst the

neighbouring European countries had a price range of 1,150 to 3,000 Euros. The most expensive build

type for Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands was high rise apartments costing 1,750 Euros, 1,850

Euros and 1,909 Euro (with the UK being detached houses at 3,000 Euro per SQ M). This trend was

similar with cheapest cost per square metre being townhouses (Ireland 1,250 Euros, Germany 1,150

Euros and the Netherlands 1,162 Euros (The UK being apartments low rise at 2,100 Euro). Europe

maintains very competitive labour cost per square metre compared to the world’s most expensive cities

averaging of 29-46 Euros, compared to the likes of New York 57.4 to 112 Euros (64-125 USD) ,Seattle

44-90 Euros (49-100 USD) and Houston 35-108 Euros (39-120 USD) . Only Sydney 24- 50 Euros (40-79

AUD) within the five most expensive cities comes close to the European labour costs.


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In conclusion

In conclusion, Ireland has a very bright future ahead as construction costs are stable around 1.0% and

predicted growth is almost double digits year on year from 2014-2018 (Ireland is only country with this

high level of growth) construction levels are on the rise from previous years of 8,300 and 10,000 in 2014

and 2015. It was pointed out that Ireland needed 25,000 new developments per year to meet their

property shortfall, but haven’t delivered anywhere near this number in the past. If you factor in the

predicted construction activity growth of double digit growth up to 2018, increased activity in 2015 and

increased completion numbers in 2014 (the first time since 2006 peak year) then Ireland is going to be

very busy. Completion levels were at an all-time low in 2013 and had seen production levels drop of to

below 1000 apartments and 7500 houses being completed. The 2008 construction levels peaked at a

total of 32.5 billion Euros and 20.2% of the GNP, with 2014 and 2015 reporting increased numbers of

9.48 billion Euros and 6.8% and 12.55 billion Euros and 7.6% .Thus looking to correct the issue of

reduced property availability across all the provinces from 2014 to 2015.

Employment in construction during the Celtic Tiger years was around 19% of the total labour force and

just under 400,000 people, since 2006 employment numbers steadied at 150-160,000 with new jobs

promised to continue the trend of increased activity. The need for more construction jobs is supported

by the facts of over 50% of the population is currently around 25-64, and the future house buyers 0-14 is

21.69% almost double that of the 65+ age range (12.60%).

Mortgage applications and lending has also followed the increased construction trend, with 29%

growth 2014 to 2015 resulting 26,756 transaction at a total value of 4.7 billion Euros Levels (up from

17,056 in 2013), a further 11% is expected 2015-2016 as the central banks look to lend closer to the 8

billion Euros level. These figures are still well short of the 2006 peak year of 114, 600 transactions and

total lending of 32 billion Euros, but going in the right direction. The housing market is 50% cash

buyers, as Irish citizens are now returning to Ireland and buying property from the cash used to sell their

international property especially in the UK, Dubai and Australia. Sales transactions are also showing

signs of improvement compared to the 2010-2012 levels were transactions averaged around 3-6,000

mark (part form 9,000 peak 2012 quarter 4). Transaction numbers were only below 10,000 once in the

across all the quarters in 2015 being quarter 4, the trend of the first quarter being the least active is not

broken in a five year period till 2015, and quarter on quarter growth on two occasions in 2010 and 2015.

Despite a strong performance in the world housing price index between 2014 and 2014, placing third

with 16.8% growth and being the highest European entry. Its performance in available credit leaves it

the second worst in the world at -13%, only beaten by the Ukraine at -32%t (the European top

performers saw their figures around the +6% to the +2 mark) Previous years saw most of the

construction activity centered around Dublin and Cork (representing 42% of new planning applications

and 35% of new completions in 2014) This was due to the size of their populations as Dublin now has 1.2

million people and 39% of the population , and Cork seeing their population increase from 402,465 to

519,032 from the first consensus in 1981 to the last one in 2011. Ireland’s construction and new

completion activity in 2015 saw Dublin fall below Fingal and Cork, with cities such as Wicklow and

Waterford enjoy increased activity quarter on quarter. Dublin has remained the most expensive area to

purchase or rent a house, due to it accounting for 47% of the GDP and employing 40% of the workforce.

In reality Dublin has more of the top 25% wage earners residing there (40-70,000 Euros) rather than the


24

top 1 (200,000 Euros plus) which accounts for 23.5% of total capital earnt. Dublin’s status of the 13th

most expensive European city to live in (cost index score of 210) is not helped with it only coming fourth

in average income across Ireland (230,000 Euros), 59,000 Euros less than the South East (Carlow,

Kilkenny, Wexford and Waterford) and around 50% of the population earning less than 28,500 Euros.

The job initiatives nationwide across Ireland should elevate the pressure on Dublin to supply the

majority of jobs and also see future population movements, making housing more affordable across

Ireland nationwide. Areas such as Cavan, Cork and Clare experienced the biggest prices increases across

1 to the 5 bedrooms according to the latest Daft report. Dublin’s biggest areas of growth being Dublin 8

and 10, with Dublin 6 and Dublin 16 lost most value across 2 and 3 bedrooms. Dublin still remains nearly

80,000 more than Cork at 306,613 Euros, with Waterford the cheapest houses at 129,397. Future

reductions in the Dublin’s population would serve two important purposes, firstly regenerating areas

where massive employment levels were previously lost and secondly, reducing the price gap of Dublin

houses relative to the rest of the country. Through job initiatives country wide, counties previously

reliant on older industries can now look to increase their SMB activities or attract established business

to set up new offices increasing employment opportunities. The price gap between Dublin’s property

prices and the rest of Ireland needs to rectified, but due to 60% of new construction per year required

solely to fulfil Dublin’s house shortage this won’t be happening anytime soon. Counties such as the

South East (Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Waterford and Tipperary) , the Mid-West (Clare and Limerick)

and the Midlands (Laios, Longford, Offaly and West Meath) are the top three average earning areas of

Ireland, with house prices far cheaper than that of Dublin.

Ireland and the UK are in a similar positions in both pre 2014 builds and 2014 new builds with their

average room sizes and overall house sizes are below the European average (almost half the size of

Denmark and Greece in the new 2014 builds). This a result of the large housing demand that Ireland

faces due its projected population size of growth 10 million by 2050 doubling the current population of

4.67 million (the UK population is 63.48 million). Countries such as Germany and France two of the most

populated European countries did the reverse, increasing their overall house and room size going from

below the European average pre 2014 to above it in the new 2014 builds. Ireland’s property market

consists mostly of detached and semi-detached houses as the Eurostat figures of 2014 (58.3% semi-

detached and 37% detached) highlighted, Whilst recording the lowest number of flat dwellers in the EU

28 (less than 5%) compared to that of Spain at 66.5%. This is clearly pointed out by the Bruce Shaw

report where new housing constructing continues to massively out number new apartments, as housing

contributes from 80 to 88% of new builds 2006 to 2014.

The housing market in Ireland should be positioned more to the European market, rather than Irish

citizens as it boosts the largest migration rate in the world at 17% accounting for 20% of total migration

activity from 2009 to 2014.The peak year for this was 2013 at 52,000 but has since decreased to 34,000

by 2015 as the Economy became stronger and more competitive. Immigration rates in Ireland continues

to remain higher than returning Irish citizens from 2010 onwards, despite a drop off from 2013 to 2015.

Unemployment in Ireland with 23.9% under 25 and 10% over 25%, is currently matching the EU 28

average, but with job creation on the increase and current SMB early planning numbers (57,500 new

jobs and over 60% of new entrepreneurs yet to employ in 2015) this will only reduce further.


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ireland construction trends 2010-2018

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