www.irstea.fr

Pour mieux

affirmer

ses missions,

le Cemagref

devient Irstea

June 11th-13th 2013

Institution d’Aménagement de la Vilaine

DROP meeting and visit

Drought Team

2

Objectives of the project

Developing a tool that integrates hydrological forecasting and multi-uses management of the Arzal dam

Meteorological

forecasts

Hydrological

forecasts

Dam management

scenarios Management

model

Hydrological

Model

3

Exploratory analysis of data collected

Focus on May-October period Low flow period

Interannual daily mean of precipitations and flows

Characterisation of flows and low flows

4

The hydrological model

Meteorological

forecasts

Hydrological

forecasts

Dam management

scenarios Management

model

Hydrological

Model

5

The hydrological model

Existing conceptual rainfall-runoff model

Daily

6 parameters

Developed specifically for low flows

Inputs: meteorological data (P, T, E)

Past observed data

Mid-term forecasts and past observed data

Seasonal forecasts (?)

Outputs: hydrological forecasts

GR6J structure (Pushpalatha et al., 2011)

6

The hydrological model

Meteorological forecasts (P)

Hydrological forecasts (Q)

Current and Future work: Exploratory analysis of data collected

How to select relevant forecasts among past observed data ?

How to efficiently present results for an operational use in risk anticipation ?

Day of

forecast

Target

period

n precipitation scenarios

n flow simulations

Hydrological Model

(Pushpalatha, 2013)

7

The management model

Meteorological

forecasts

Hydrological

forecasts

Dam management

scenarios

Hydrological

Model

GR6J

Management

model

Hydrological

Model

Hydrological

forecasts

Hydrological

forecasts

Hydrological

forecasts

8

The management model

Will take into account all water uses

Drinking water

Fishway

Boating

Inputs: possible scenarios of water inflows for coming period

Outputs:

Possible management scenarios

Related impacts on uses

Experience on water management in the team:

Climaware project (Charles Perrin and Guillaume Thirel) Optimisation of management rules for dams upstream the Seine river

Maria-Helena Ramos also has experience on water management issues PhD work on optimisation of the management of a power dam based on power profitability

9

Past events

Meeting of PhD students: Poster on the Arzal dam

22-23 April 2013: PhD School

7 June 2013: Irstea

Participation to EGU presentation

9-12 April 2013

I contributed to the preparation of a game that was presented at

EGU …which you will try! It was prepared together with Helena

(Irstea), F. Pappenberger (ECMWF), SJ van Andel (UNESCO) and

A. Wood (NOAA). We are preparing a paper on the results

10

To come

EMS conference in Reading in Septembre 2013

Presentation of hydrological forecasts obtained from mid-term

precipitation forecasts combined with climatological data.

Development of operational graphs for drought forecasting.

Abstract accepted

Stay at ECMWF/CEPMMT also in Reading (with F. Pappenberger)

Meteorological forecasts: data will be collected to enrich our

database of meteorological forecasts and tried as forcings to the

GR6J model to evaluate their potential predictability for

hydrological purposes.

11

…

Thank you for your attention!