Is an epic pluvial masking NYC’s water security?

Kevin VranesEd Cook Andrew Bell

Akkadian EmpireTiwanaku Empire

NYC

Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection

NYC

Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection

NYC

Ave May-Aug.

Data: NCDC

12 species

eastern hemlock

chestnut oak

pitch pine

white oak

eastern redcedar

post oak

pignut hickory

sweet birch

yellow-poplar

shagbark hickory

northern red oak

black oak

32 chronologies

Time-varying Reconstructions

David Meko

- Better at estimating wet years

r2 = 66.2%

May-Aug

inst.datatackedontoend

January NCEP Sea-level Pressure: 1948-2009

1568-1573 Drought: NADA v2

Southern Appalachian Drought History

NADA v2

Mississippi Valley Drought History

NADA v2

Northeast US = extreme droughtN

orth

east

Clim

ate

Cen

ter

Summary:

- increased chronology replication helps, especially spatially

- species replication helps as well - as much as chronology replication?

Summary:

- increased chronology replication helps, especially spatially

- species replication helps as well - as much as chronology replication?

500 yrs of NYC watershed drought history?

- NYC will be in a heap of trouble when a real/paleo drought hits!

1663-1666 Drought: NADA v2