Is Anthropogenic Global Warming a Serious Threat?

Prof Philip Hutchinson

Cranfield University

World Energy Production

World energy production 1890-1999 in exajoule, distributed by fuel source

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 © BP 2012

Primary energy world consumptionMillion tonnes oil equivalent

Energy Intensity of different economies The amount of energy it takes to produce a US $ of GNP for selected countries. GNP is based on 2004 purchasing power parity and 2000 dollars adjusted for inflation.

Is there a shortage of energy?

Oil reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

Natural gas reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

World Proven Oil Reserves by Region

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004. Figure 3.9http://www.iea.org//textbase/nppdf/free/2004/weo2004.pdf

Regional Share of Proven Oil Reserves

World Coal Reserves

Anthropogenic? Global WarmingThe “Warmist” Argument

Human use of fossil fuels causes CO2 emissions. (True)

CO2 is a greenhouse gas and traps solar radiation. (True)

As a result the Earth is warmer. (True)

We have increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 40% since 1850 with most of the increase occurring since 1950. (True)

Thus we should expect significant global warming from this emission. (False) The temperature rise attributable to the increase in CO2 is about 0.5 C or 1.0 F

Global CO2 levels

Annual, global emissions of carbon from fossil fuels and cement production

CO2 absorbs infrared radiation in only three narrow bands of frequencies.

The percentage absorption of all three lines combined can be very generously estimated at about 8% of the whole IR spectrum, which means that 92% of the "heat" passes right through without being absorbed by CO2.

Water Vapour The Anthropogenic Contribution is about 0.2% of the total.

Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).Temperature after C.R. ScoteseCO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)

From the Natural History Museum

Climate Change has been happening for a long time

Temperature data from SatelliteDec 2009

The 28 years of High Quality Satellite Data

The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly.

The Past and Future of Climate, David Archibald A presentation to The Lavoisier Group’s 2007 Workshop ‘Rehabilitating Carbon Dioxide’ held in Melbourne on 29-30 June 2007

Temperature Data Summary Dec 2009

Temperature Variation From Average:

Lower Troposphere:Global: December 2009: +0.24 °C

Northern Hemisphere: +0.24 °CSouthern Hemisphere: +0.25 °C

Peak recorded anomaly:April, 1998: +0.86 °C

Current relative to peak recorded: -0.62 °C

Anthropogenic? Global Warming

• IPCC plot generated by:

• Inappropriately weighting data.

• Excluding the Medieval Warm Period.

• Using a poor computer model to fit the data.

Anthropogenic? Global Warming

Met Office Model predicts a Mild Winter

In 2008, the Met Office predicted an average summer with a low risk of heavy rainfall. It later admitted it was “one of the wettest on record across the UK”. It then predicted a milder than average winter — which turned out to be the coldest in 13 years. And in April it said there was a 65% probability of a warmer than average summer. The forecast was changed in July, with a wetter August predicted. In 2009 they predicted a mild and warmer than average winter.

Energy Security and the UK

Nuclear plants are aging and will go out of service. No new nuclear plant is committed or can come on stream before 2020.

Is Anthropogenic Global Warming a Serious Threat?

Only if you are foolish enough to base policies on faith in approximate computer models rather than real data.

Best advice

Keep Calm and Carry On

But buy a home electricity generator

Resources

But Is It True Aaron Wildavsky

ISBN 0-674-08923

Harvard University Press 1997

As promised I give below links which can be used to download the podcast of an open lecture that I gave at the Defence Academy of the UK .

 

You can download the podcast from either of these two links:

 

http://www.da.mod.uk/podcasts/20080514-hutchinson-energy.swf

 

http://www.da.mod.uk/podcasts/20080514-hutchinson-energy.mp3

 

The first is a combination of the PowerPoint and commentary: the second is the commentary alone. You will need a flash player to play the first and this can be obtained here:

 

http://get.adobe.com/flashplayer/?promoid=DXLUJ

 

I would welcome any comments especially if you think there are errors.