is china an outlier?

7

China’s Urbanization in the International Context

Is China an Outlier?

Jinhua ZhaoDepartment of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT

Why do we care about China?

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html%23.UicfGGSgm3U

Theory of Behavior Choice

9

Perceptions

Preferences

Process Choices

Memory

Information

Reality

Time and Money

Constraints

Experiences

History (space and time)

7

China’s Urbanization Immense, Rapid and Out of Sync

China Hype and China Bashing

• GDP: 9.5% per year for 30 years

• Urbanize 370m people without slum

• Raise 500 millions of people out of poor

• Road, HSR, infrastructure and housing

• Biggest CO2 emitter

• Severe pollutions

• Political reform

• Hukou system

• Land based finance

• Inequality – urban – rural; east – west – from one extreme to another

extreme

11

The old buildings under the high-rises are destined for demolition in the near future. Justin Jin for The New York Times

Visitors from the countryside amid a giant project under construction in Chongqing. In southwestern China, away from the coast, it is the engine of China’s inland economic development.

Justin Jin for The New York Times

Minxin Jiayuan is a flagship low-income housing project in Chongqing. Vast sums of money will be needed to pay for schooling, health care and retirement programs for the now landless farmers.


Li Rui, 60, scavenged his former village for building materials in Liaocheng. Mr. Li was a farmer until three years ago, when the local government razed his village for an urban development zone.


A rural migrant in a garment factory on the outskirts of Chongqing. Skeptics say the government’s headlong rush to urbanize is driven by a vision of modernity that has failed elsewhere.


UrbanizationAnything good about China?Anything bad about China?

Question #1

Land ReformHousing market

High Speed Rail

Urban Finance

Cultural Heritage

Beijing Smog

Real Estate Development

Big Data

Spatial Equity

Urban Form

Aging SocietyMigrant workers

Car Love Affair

Infrastructure

Affordable housing

Urban vs. Region

Governance

Urban Agglomeration

Energy Efficiency

Connections

Immense Rapid

Out of Sync

Urbanization in China

Urban

190m

1980

Rural 863m

Urban

690m

2011

Rural 656m

Natural Growth

Natural Growth

~350m

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010

1.05 Billion18%

1.35 Billion51%

Urban

~1,000m

Rural ~500m

2040

Natural Growth

Natural Growth

~350m

1.5 Billion67%

21

1990

2010

Shanghai

Rebuild all American cities in 30 years

• infrastructure

• services

• institutions

• …

Immense Rapid

Out of Sync

What do we mean by “urbanization”?

Question #2

Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao

Multiple InterpretationsBuilt environment

Administration

Economy

Welfare

Lifestyle

Political

Cultural

Noosphere

Source: Dewey (1960): 40 key words in definitions of urbanism by 18 authors

TheTypologyofUrbanDefinitionMethods(inWUP)

• Differentcountrieshaveverydifferentdefinitionsof“urban”.– Administrative(118/231instances)

• “Designatedurbanareas”:China,Brazil

– Demographic(107/231instances)• Population/density:US,Canada,India

– Economic(33/231instances)• Employmentstructure:Russia,Japan

– FunctionalUrban(43/231instances)• Physical(e.g.infrastructureconditions:India,Indonesia,Philippines;about30instances)• Social(e.g.publicserviceconditions:Honduras,Cambodia;about10instances)• Cultural(e.g.“senseofcommunity”:Bangladesh;lessthan10instances)

The Typology of Urban Definition Methods

Urban Definition Methods and Income Levels of Countries across the World (2010) Source: UN 2011; World Bank 2011

MeasurementIssuesoftheUrbanConcept:Inter-CountryDifferencesinUrbanDefinitionMethods

Thepopulationthresholdforanurbanizedarea:• UnitedStates:2,500• UnitedKingdom:10,000• Japan:50,000• Norway:200

Country Urbanization

Level(2010)

Administrative Demographic Physical Economic Social

Population Population

DensityBrazil 84% 1 UnitedStates 81% 1 1 Mexico 78% 1 Cuba 77% 1 1 1Russia 74% 1 1 1 China 49% 1 1 1 1 1 India 31% 1 1 1 1 Afghanistan 25% 1 Ethiopia 17% 1

Source: UN 2011

China’s Urbanization is >70% if measured by the US standard

“Noosphere”

Sphere of Human Thoughtsboth at the top and at the bottom

Measurement

Are different aspects of urbanization developing in

harmony?

Question #3


AMulti-dimensionalMeasurementSystemforUrbanizationConditions

DimensionofUrbanCharacteristics ProxyforUrbanizationLevels

SpecificIndicatorsforUrbanizationLevels

Demographic DegreeofpopulationconcentrationPercentageofpopulationlivinginsettlementsofacertainscaleandabove

EconomicSignificanceofnon-agricultureemployment

Percentageofnon-agricultureemployment

PhysicalConditionsofphysicalinfrastructureprovision Percentageofroadspaved

Social ConditionsofpublicserviceprovisionPercentageofpopulationcoveredbyurban-qualityhealthcareservice

Cultural Maturityofcivilsociety TheFHScore

AdministrativeNotadimensionofurbancharacteristics;Introducedasaframeofreferenceforotherindicators

EmpiricalTests–TheMulti-dimensionalConditionsofUrbanization

EmpiricalTests–TheDivergentPathsofUrbanization:ChinaandIndia

Tensions

People vs. land

Economy vs. environment

Financing vs. urban form

Locals vs. migrants

Given this dys-synchronization, what should be our policy priority?

Question #4

Urbanization in China

Urban

190m

1980

Rural 863m

Urban

690m

2011

Rural 656m

Natural Growth

Natural Growth

~350m

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010

1.05 Billion18%

1.35 Billion51%

Urban

~1,000m

Rural ~500m

2040

Natural Growth

Natural Growth

~350m

1.5 Billion67%

Is China Really Special?

Didn’t NYC grow as fast in the late 19th century?

Question #5

7

China’s Urbanization in the International Context


Is China Really Special?

• Level• Rate of Change

• Relationship with GDP• Trajectory

World Urbanization Level

Urbanization rate: percentage of population living in urban areas (as defined by the country). Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png



0.00#

10.00#

20.00#

30.00#

40.00#

50.00#

60.00#

Urbaniza

tionLevel/%

Year

Current# Official#Figures First#(1953)#and#Second#(1964)#Census Third#Census#(1982)Fourth#Census#(1990) Fifth#Census#(2000) Sixth#Census#(2010)From#Sixth#Census#(2010D)

China‘s Official Urbanization Statistics (1949-2013). Source: China Statistics Yearbook, 1983, 1991, 2001, 2012; ChinaCompendium of Statistics 1949-2008


35

1990

2010

Shanghai

36

1821

1845

Lowell, MA

37

1990

2010

Dubai

Urbanization and Economic Development

Urbanization and Economic Development

Source: Liyan Xu, calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.

Trajectory

Urbanization Trajectories

Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.

1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$

1850$1860$ 1870$

1880$

1890$1900$ 1910$

1920$1930$1940$

1950$1960$

1970$1980$

1990$2000$ 2010$

R²$=$0.66121$

2$

2.5$

3$

3.5$

4$

4.5$

5$

0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$

Lg(G

DP'per'Cap

ita) 2

010'Dollars'($

)

Urbanization'Rate/%

World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'

Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ USA$1800?2010$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$



1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$

1850$1860$ 1870$

1880$

1890$1900$ 1910$

1920$1930$1940$

1950$1960$

1970$1980$

1990$2000$ 2010$

R²$=$0.66121$

2$

2.5$

3$

3.5$

4$

4.5$

5$

0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$

Lg(G

DP'per'Cap

ita) 2

010'Dollars'($

)

Urbanization'Rate/%


Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ USA$1800?2010$ UK$1830?2010$ Japan$1920?2010$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$



R²#=#0.66121#

2#

2.5#

3#

3.5#

4#

4.5#

5#

0# 10# 20# 30# 40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100#

Lg(G

DP'per'Cap

ita) 2

010'Dollars'($

)

Urbanization'Rate/%


Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)# Annotations# India#1950E2010# Brazil#1960E2010# South#Korea#1960E2010# Ghana#1960E2010# Dem.Rep.Congo#1960E2010# Linear#Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization#Rate#


R²#=#0.66121#

2#

2.5#

3#

3.5#

4#

4.5#

5#

0# 10# 20# 30# 40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100#

Lg(G

DP'per'Cap

ita) 2

010'Dollars'($

)

Urbanization'Rate/%


Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)# Annotations# China#1952E2012# Linear#Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization#Rate#



1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$

1850$1860$ 1870$

1880$

1890$1900$ 1910$

1920$1930$1940$

1950$1960$

1970$1980$

1990$2000$ 2010$

R²$=$0.66121$

2$

2.5$

3$

3.5$

4$

4.5$

5$

0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$

Lg(G

DP'per'Cap

ita) 2

010'Dollars'($

)

Urbanization'Rate/%


Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ Annotations$ USA$1800E2010$ UK$1830E2010$ Japan$1920E2010$

India$1950E2010$ Brazil$1960E2010$ South$Korea$1960E2010$ China,$Taiwan$1952E2012$ Ghana$1960E2010$

Dem.Rep.Congo$1960E2010$ China$1952E2012$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$


China’s Urbanization Follows the Norm



5940

Global Urbanization Trend

2011: 1.35 billion; 51.3% in urban areas

How is China Unique?

• Trajectory

• Internal Complexity

• Scale and Density

• Institutions

Trajectory

Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.

OECD Countries Urbanization

Australia!Austria! Belgium!Canada!

Chile!

Czech Republic!

Denmark!

Estonia!

Finland!France!Germany!

Greece!

Hungary!

Ireland!

Israel!Italy!

Japan!

Mexico!

Netherlands!

New Zealand!

Norway!

Poland!

Portugal! Republic of Korea!

Slovakia!

Slovenia!

Spain!

Sweden!

Switzerland!

Turkey!

United Kingdom!

United States of America!

Australia!

Austria!

Belgium!

Canada!

Chile!

Denmark!

Finland!

France!

Greece!

Ireland!

Israel!

Italy!

Japan!

Mexico!

Netherlands!

New Zealand!

Norway!

Portugal!

Republic of Korea!

Spain!

Sweden!

Switzerland!

Turkey!

United Kingdom!

United States of America!

R² = 0.66121!

2!

2.5!

3!

3.5!

4!

4.5!

5!

10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!

Lg(G

DP

per

Cap

ita)/2

010

Dol

lars

($)

Urbanization Rate/%

OECD Countries, 1960 - 2010!

PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! OECD Countries 2010! OECD Countries 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!

OECD Country Urbanization

Manhattan; Suburb (Harry Potter’s aunt’s house in suburban London)

Pseudo Urbanization: Latin America


Argentina!

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)!

Brazil!Chile!

Colombia!

Costa Rica!

Ecuador!El Salvador!

Guatemala!

Honduras!

Mexico!

Nicaragua!

Panama!

Paraguay!

Peru!

Uruguay!Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)!

Argentina!

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)!

Brazil!

Chile!

Colombia!

Costa Rica!

Ecuador! El Salvador!

Guatemala!

Honduras!

Mexico!

Nicaragua!

Panama!

Peru!

Uruguay!

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)!

R² = 0.66121!

2!

2.5!

3!

3.5!

4!

4.5!

5!

10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!

Lg(G

DP

per

Capi

ta)/

2010

Dol

lars

($)

Urbanization Rate/%

Continental Latin America, 1960 - 2010!

PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! Continental Latin America 2010! Continental Latin America 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!

Over-urbanization/Pseudo urbanization

Rio: skyscrapers and favelas (screenshot from Fast and Furious 5 and Rio, the 2011 carton movie featuring two blue macaws)

Under-urbanization: Former USSR

Soviet Baku

Over-urbanization and Economic Stagnation


Angola!

Benin!

Botswana!

Burkina Faso!

Burundi!

Cameroon!

Central African Republic!

Chad!

Congo!

Côte d'Ivoire!

Democratic Republic of the Congo!

Equatorial Guinea!

Ethiopia!

Gabon!

Gambia!

Ghana!

Guinea!

Kenya!

Lesotho!

Liberia!

Madagascar!Malawi!

Mali!

Mauritania!

Mozambique!

Namibia!

Niger!

Nigeria!

Rwanda!

Senegal!

Sierra Leone!

Somalia!

South Africa!

Swaziland!

Togo!Uganda! United Republic of Tanzania!

Zambia!

Zimbabwe!Benin!

Botswana!

Burkina Faso!Burundi!

Cameroon!

Central African Republic!

Chad!

Congo!

Côte d'Ivoire!

Democratic Republic of the Congo!

Gabon!

Ghana!

Kenya!

Lesotho!

Liberia!

Madagascar!

Malawi!

Mauritania!

Niger!

Nigeria!

Rwanda!

Senegal!

Somalia!

South Africa!

Swaziland!

Togo!

Uganda!

Zambia!

Zimbabwe!

R² = 0.66121!

2!

2.5!

3!

3.5!

4!

4.5!

5!

0! 10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!

Lg(G

DP

per

Capi

ta)/

2010

Dol

lars

($)

Urbanization Rate/%

Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960 - 2010!

PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! Sub-Saharan Africa 2010! Sub-Saharan Africa 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!

Over-urbanization at a Low Development Level

Kibera, Nairobi‘s largest slum


Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.

1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$

1850$1860$ 1870$

1880$

1890$1900$ 1910$

1920$1930$1940$

1950$1960$

1970$1980$

1990$2000$ 2010$

R²$=$0.66121$

2$

2.5$

3$

3.5$

4$

4.5$

5$

0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$

Lg(G

DP'per'Cap

ita) 2

010'Dollars'($

)

Urbanization'Rate/%


Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ Annotations$ USA$1800E2010$ UK$1830E2010$ Japan$1920E2010$

India$1950E2010$ Brazil$1960E2010$ South$Korea$1960E2010$ China,$Taiwan$1952E2012$ Ghana$1960E2010$

Dem.Rep.Congo$1960E2010$ China$1952E2012$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$

Regional Disparity

Urbanization Rate at the Province Level

Source: Own calculation based on China’s 6th National Census data

Urbanization Rate at the Prefecture Level

Source: Own calculation based on China’s 6th National Census data

Internal Complexities

Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.

• Despite similar urbanization level, rural Vermont(right) is different from rural Guizhou(left).

• Choice of Lifestyle vs. Quality of Life

Unbalanced Urbanization

Scale and Density

Institutions

• Hukou

• Land (and public finance)

1

A Dualistic System

Urban Rural

Danwei Collective

Invisible Wall

Made in China

Wealth from Urbanization

Distance from city center

a

b b’

Land Rent Appreciation

Land

Ren

t

Splitting the Cake

Distance from city center

Land

Ren

t

a

b b’

Compensation: to land owners

Profit: to the developer

Tax: to the city government

Rural

Urban MigrantWorkers

8

UrbanPermanentResidents

III

II

II

II

3

4

II

5

2.a

II

2.b

II III

6

7.a

II III

I

10

1

IIII

7.b

II

9

Liyan Xu


• Trajectory

• Internal Complexity

• Scale and Density

• Institutions



No Yes

Context of China’s Urbanization

• Marketization: Command à Market

• Decentralization: Central à Local

• Industrialization: Agricultural à Manufacture

• Migration: Rural à Urban Based Society

• Globalization: Autarky à Open Regime

89

Statusquo

• Quality

• Consumption

• People centered

• Small scale

• Cooperative

• Participation

• Quantity

• Production

• Infrastructure centered

• Large scale

• Competitive

• Top down

China’s transition

72

Direction/Ideal


• Intellectual curiosity

• Altruism

• Interconnected world (abstract / tangible)

• Exporter of knowledge?

• Technology implementation

• Policy transfer

• New phenomena and new experience

Jan 28, 2012

It is the first time since we began our detailed coverage of the United States in 1942 that we have singled out a country in this way.

The principal reason is that China is now an economic superpower and is fast becoming a military force capable of unsettling America.

But our interest in China lies also in its politics: it is governed by a system that is out of step with global norms.

In ways that were never true of post-war Japan and may never be true of India, China will both fascinate and agitate the rest of the world for a long time to come.