is my wine fine?
TRANSCRIPT
AMERIPRISE
Is My Wine Fine?
The Investment Grade Wine Market
AOC Investment Advisors
Jennifer Williams-Bulkeley AIWS20 Park Plaza, Suite 447
Boston, MA 02116617 948 2147
#wineassetmgrwww.wineassetmanagement.com
Copyright 2014 AOC Investment Advisors - All rights reserved
THE WINES OF THE NIGHT
Sparkling
GRUET, Demi-Sec, Albuquerque, New Mexico, NV
Varietal: 50% Pinot Noir, 50% Chardonnay
White
CLARENDELLE, Graves, Bordeaux, 2012
Varietals: 71% Semillon, 24% Sauvignon Blanc, 5% Muscadelle
Reds
DOMAINE CHANDON, Carneros, 2011
Varietal: Pinot Noir
PAUL AUTARD JABOULET, Crozes-Hermitage, 2010
Varietals: Syrah,Viognier 3
2011 Domaine Chandon, Pinot Meunier $45 x 3 = $1354) 2010 Paul Jaboulet, Rhone Blend (Syrah, Grenache)
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Top Tips to Owning the ListStart with Geography 101
Varietal, think region, if its hot, if its cold, basics of wine expression
Don’t play the margin game, Italian wines, lots of good but not great
Just because its from France or Napa it does not need to be expensive
Vintage matters in top wine, not as much in New World
Be willing to step outside of your varietal comfort zone
Be wary of Pinot from hot climates, 14% Pinots are an 80/20 proposition
Value Regions - Jura, Languedoc, Spain, Southern Italy, Finger Lakes New York, Argentina, Austria, Ontario, Sud-Ouest, Savoie, Rhone
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Wine Menu Restaurant versus RetailChardonnay Cabernet Sauvignon
• Hedges, 2011, Red Mountain, Yakima Valley, Washington $58/$20
• Colgin, Herb Lamb Vineyard, 2004, Howell Mountain, Napa Valley, California $775/$265
• Château Margaux, Premier Cru, 1995, Margaux $1200/$450
• Pichon Longueville-Comtesse de Lalande, Réserve de la Comtesse, 2006, Pauillac $150/$40
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• Au Bon Climat, Sanford & Benedict Vineyard, 2010, Santa Ynez Valley, Santa Barbara County, California $70/$44
• Aubert, Lauren Vineyard, 2011, Sonoma Coast, California $225/$120
• Chevalier-Montrachet, Jean-Marc Pillot, Grand Cru, 2008, Côte de Beaune, $650/$300
• Bouzeron Aligoté, Aubert de Villaine, 2010, Côte Chalonnaise, $54/$20
WHAT
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Through
Provides
ADVISE
CONNECT
RESEARCH
VALUE
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Through
Provides
WHAT
HOW
WHY
WHO
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What Wine?
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The Secondary Market for Investment Grade Wine
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Liv-ex Market Recent Trades
Latest 25 Trades on Liv-ex
Source: Liv-ex as of 12/05/14. GBP. Current exchange rate 1.65. 15
Liv-ex 100 Index
C Region Wine Vin Size Last Eu/btt Qty
SIB bdxr Ducru Beaucaillou 2011 12x75 636 66.9 3
SIB bdxr Leoville Poyferre 2010 6x75 390 82.0 1
SIB bdxr Montrose 2010 12x75 1,550 162.8 1
SIB bdxr Haut Brion 2009 12x75 5,200 546.0 1
SIB bdxr Mission Haut Brion 2009 6x75 2,000 420.3 2
SIB bdxr Petit Mouton 2009 6x75 535 112.4 2
SIB bdxr Pontet Canet 2008 12x75 565 59.4 2
SIB bdxr Mouton Rothschild 2007 6x75 1,315 276.2 2
SIB bdxr Mouton Rothschild 2006 6x75 1,565 328.9 1
SIB bdxr Lafite Rothschild 2005 12x75 5,400 567.4 1
SIB bdxr Margaux 2005 3x75 1,200 504.4 4
SIB bdxr Pichon Baron 2005 12x75 935 98.2 2
SIB bdxr Mouton Rothschild 2004 12x75 2,645 278.1 1
SIB bdxr Mouton Rothschild 2003 12x75 3,035 318.7 3
SIB bdxr Pontet Canet 2003 12x75 670 70.4 1
SIB bdxr Petrus 2001 6x75 7,400 1,554.5 1
SIB bdxr Cheval Blanc 2000 6x75 2,750 577.9 1
SIB bdxr Giscours 2000 12x75 640 67.2 1
SIB bdxr Latour 2000 12x75 6,700 704.1 1
SIB bdxr Gruaud Larose 1998 12x75 475 49.9 39
SIB bdxw Yquem 1996 6x75 595 125.1 2
SIB bgnr Joseph Faiveley, Latricieres Chambertin 2008 6x75 395 83.0 1
SIB ital Ornellaia 2010 6x75 573 120.4 9
SIB ital Ornellaia 2009 6x75 547 114.9 2
SIB ital Sassicaia 2008 6x75 550 115.6 4
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WHY
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Wine – Growing Demand, Rare and Regulated
19Source: International Organization of Vine and Wine, IWSR. Demeter Group
Investment Grade Wine
20Source:Liv-ex
Liv-ex Investables vs. S&P 500
“IOP” Demand
21Source: World Wealth Report 2013. HAGI.
221 year change Q3 ‘12 to Q3 ’13, Art, -3%, Furniture -2%, Chinese 3%, Jewelry 3%, Watches 4%, Wine 3%, Cars 28%, Stamps 5%, Coins 10%, Index 8%
The Wealth Management Market
The Wealth Market
23Source: 2013 World Wealth Report.
HOW
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The Catalysts Top storage – further from the vine the lesser the wine
Entry point, relative price, too expensive to drink, upside
Parker Points, PPP, production, brand
History of aging, consistency of vintages
ProvenancePriceProfilePerformance
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The Circle of Wine
•Wine producers, collectors and investors have an obligation to steward the understanding of fine wine and future growth in the market
•Proper vintage management can support this process
•Engagement with younger demographics can help grow demand27
Market TrendsDiversification away from
Bordeaux
Bordeaux now stabilizing, new demand
Super Tuscans finding favor
Vintage champagne trading well
Climate and price are creating relative value in back vintages
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Source: Liv-ex as of 9/12/14
Market Expands Beyond Bordeaux
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Sell off in Bordeaux Creates Opportunity
The 2009 and 2010 First Growths had an average rating of 99 points, two of the top rated vintages of all time in Bordeaux.
Since the release of the 2009 vintage en primeur, Lafite Rothschild has contracted over 40%, Mouton Rothschild 28%, Margaux 22%, Haut-Brion 19%, and Latour 5%.
Looking at the return profiles of the 2000 and 1990 Lafites, there appears to be substantial upside, with returns of 533% and 1,410%, respectively.
2009 and 2010 Haut-Brion is the second least expensive per Parker point at $98 and $99 respectively.
En primeur pricing appears to be a major driver of volatility and market perception.
30Source: Liv-ex as of 9/17/13. Constant currency of 1.55 USD/GBP
En Market Production % Change Primeur Price RP EP$/PP MKT$/PP
Lafite Rothschild 20,000 (43) 18,600 10,540 98 190 108
Mouton Rothschild 15,000 (17) 12,013 9,920 98 123 101
Margaux 10,000 (22) 12,276 9,610 99 124 97
Haut-Brion 10,500 (16) 11,774 9,920 100 118 99
Latour 18,000 2 17,050 17,360 100 171 174
Average (19) 14,342 11,470 99 145 116
En Market % Change Primeur ($) Price ($) RP EP$/PP MKT$/PP
Lafite Rothschild (41) 20,150 11,974 99 204 121 Mouton Rothschild (28) 12,090 8,680 99 122 88 Margaux (22) 13,175 10,230 99 133 103 Haut-Brion (19) 12,090 9,765 100 121 98 Latour (4) 17,050 16,275 100 171 163
Average (23) 14,911 11,385 99 150 114
En Market % Change Primeur ($) Price ($) RP EP$/PP MKT$/PPLafite Rothschild 635 2,868 21,080 98 29 215Mouton Rothschild 364 3,410 15,813 96 36 165Margaux 370 2,472 11,610 100 25 116Haut-Brion 192 2,868 8,370 99 29 85Latour 359 2,868 13,164 98 29 134
Average 384 2,897 14,007 98 30 143
2010 First Growths Return Profile
2009 First Growths Return Profile
2000 First Growths Return Profile
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Cos d’Estournel 2009
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Ducru Beaucaillou 2009
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Montrose 2010
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Guigal La Mouline 2005
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Chapoutier Ermitage l’ Ermite Blanc, 2009
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DRC, DRC 2009
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Grange 2008
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Vega Sicilia 2004
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Sassicaia 2010
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Dom Perignon 1996
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Screaming Eagle 2010
WHO
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AOCIA What We DoAdviseVintage ManagementResearchEducateConnectConsultImportTaste – a lot
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What Clients Want Access to wineEasy to understand
processTrustworthy knowledgeTransparent inventoryValuation servicesVintage managementActionable contentRisk controls
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The Differentiator
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SAMPLE STATEMENT
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Jennifer Williams-Bulkeley AIWS
20 Park Plaza, Suite 447Boston, MA 02116
617 948 2147
#wineassetmgrwww.wineassetmanagement.com