Is Nanotech A Sign Of Transistor Obsolete?

There is no doubt that transistors have been the fundamental parts of electronics since the 1940s. It is, essentially, a switch

activated by as little as one volt of electricity that powers virtually all electronic systems, especially today’s popular modern

digital information technology devices.

While there is a real dilemma, since transistors don’t work well at less than one volt, which is almost a thousand times more

than most systems really need. What’s more, transistors use vastly more voltage than necessary, wasting an extraordinary

amount of energy. This trend is pushing technology to its limits, and will almost certainly prompt a slowdown in the pace of

information technology that we have come to expect--and demand.

Information technology is a very big factor in modern civilization, and has become more and more a part of our lives. It

continues to use an increasing amount of energy, and we’ve become spoiled.

Scientists are trying to find out a more efficient way to replace the transistor. It would have to function as well or better than the

transistor, but at a fraction of the voltage.

Center scientists are studying four types of designs that someday could make today’s transistors obsolete. These include a

new kind of semi conductor that resembles a transistor, but can be activated with less voltage; a nano-mechanical switch,

which works like a light switch but is very tiny, and could be activated with fewer than 10 millivolts; optical signaling with tiny

light pulses, and; a magnetic switch that can be activated by minimal current.

Here come the nanostructures, from wires to switches. Carbon nanotubes are one possible line of development, but their

silicon-based counterparts are not far behind。

Nanoscale is the fact that transistor technology is currently reaching its fundamental physical limits of miniaturization. The

boom that allowed for the size of conventional transistors to be made smaller and smaller is now deflating, and soon the

maximum limits will be reached. Therefore, coming up with an alternative before this happens is important, as this would avert

a global stagnation in terms of electronics and computer technology.

And the abrupt end of this trend is not that far away. In spite of the fact that the microprocessor industry, for instance,

approaches the ability of setting individual molecules in place, the limits are almost reached. The industry is currently engaged

in moving its standards yet again, from a 45-nanometer architecture to a 32-nanometer one, which will again increase

computing power and performances and would decrease size. But this miniaturization trend is about to end, leading

companies and materials scientists admit.

Nanotech may be cool and it may be here, but it's also "on the verge" in the same way that e-commerce, video-on-demand

and WLL have been for years.

The problem is that, overall, the telecoms/IT market isn't really ready for nanotech products. The most obvious example is Bell

Labs' molecular transistor, which undoubtedly will have a major impact on the way computer chips and the devices that use

them are designed--but not for a while. Chip makers like Intel reckon that it will be at least the end of the decade before today's

standard silicon processing becomes obsolete.

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Nanotech is also often regarded as a disruptive technology that could completely change the way networks operate. Which is

cool from a visionary POV, but it's not a compelling business model in these troubled times, and the last thing network

operators need right now is a disruptive technology.

Of course, if someone can come up with a nanotech-based product that's cheaper than existing products, works perfectly with

existing infrastructure, is easy to manage, demonstrably saves millions in opex, enables new revenue-generating

opportunities, and has been rigorously proven in the field, the queue would be around the block.

Clearly, we're not there yet. We're not even close. Remember all-optical switches? They're here, they use MEMS, and they

have done since at least last year. A few companies like Ciena, Corvis, Sycamore, and Tellium will cheerfully sell you one

today. But all-optical does not sell well right now because carriers have rearranged their spending priorities to focus on

reducing costs and enabling revenue streams without performing massive upgrades.

But the timeframe for nanotech doesn't mean that it's not worth investing in--far from it. But it's worth remembering that

nanotech--like the Internet's evolution into an all-purpose global multimedia communications-enabled shopping mall--is a

long-term proposition that won't get any shorter just because short-term investors chuck money at it.

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