Is the University of Wisconsin Becoming More Elite? A Partial Answer

John F. WitteBarbara Wolfe

Sara Dahill-Brown

Basic Theoretical Issues

• Is UW-Madison Becoming More Elite in Terms of Either Applications or Admissions?

• Elitism May Be In Terms of Family Income?

• Or Elitism May Be In Terms of Merit?

• Or It May Be a Combination of the Two

Basic Empirical Issue

• Traditionally we have only poor measures of income of applicants– Self report (by 18 year olds!)– More detailed reports only for those who apply

for income based financial aid

Our Approach• Match the address of applicants to Census Block data.

– We have done this to date for 1972-2007 for all U.S. based applicants.

– Historical data files a considerable challenge, but we have mastered "Cobol files," overwriting data entries (student addresses).

– Our matching has yielded Census block matches in more than 90 percent of all applicants.

• Merge these Census data with data from individual applicant records– For income in year applied, weight estimates between actual census

years based on the two census estimates bracketing the targeted years.

• Separate Wisconsin, Minnesota and rest of the US

U.S. Household Income: 1967 – 2010 (2009 $)

Percent and Number of Applicants by State of Residence:1972-2007

Median Family Income of UW Applicants, By Residency: 1972-2007 (2009 dollars)

Relative Median Family Income of UW Applicants, By Residency: 1972-2007 (To U.S. Median Income)

Percent of Applicants Coming from Each Income Quintile: 1972-2007

Applicant Racial Minorities: 1972 to 2007

Percent of Applicants Admitted: 1972-2007

Real Median Family Income of Admitted and Rejected Students: 1972- 2007 (2009 $)

Predicted Probability of Admission to UW-Madison by Income Quintile: Selected Years

The Predicted Probability Difference in Admission for Students from the First Verses the Fifth Income Quintile

Predicted Probability of Admission Across Income Quintiles and ACT Scores

The Change in Predicted Probability of Admission for Applicants Scoring a 30 as Opposed to a 20 on the ACT