island 63 modeling update - home | gfp · 2018. 7. 5. · us army corps of engineers engineer...

US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center

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Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mark D. Wahl,Joseph L. Gutenson, Drew Loney,Chris Massey, Mike L. Follum, NawaPradhan, and Aaron R. Byrd

25 June 2018


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Challenges with inland-coastal modeling• Coastal urban flood modeling has been approached from two separate sides,

• the coastal side and the inland hydrology side with no, or very limited interaction

• Each set of models have progressively advanced in their abilities

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/29/us/tropical-weather-sandy/index.html


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Hurricane Sandy-GSSHA model

One way coupling:

• Adding points from ADCIRC to GSSHA

• Might not be a good solution for iterative coupling

ADCIRC

Point Data Preprocess

for GSSHA Apply as

Transient Head

Majority of

Volume

Quasi-

independent


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Hurricane Sandy-GSSHA model

Flood map with three ADCIRC gagesActual Flooding


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Hurricane Maria


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Hurricane Maria

6

Timeline:

• 18 Sept 2017 0915 – Initial contact made about possible need for storm surge and flood inundation data for Hurricane Maria.

• 19 Sept 2017 0830 – Request for flood inundation maps for oncoming storm requested at UROC.

• 19 Sept 2017 1400 – Initial 100-yr flood inundation maps sent for Puerto Rico main island and link to forecasted storm surge

data.

Our rapid flood inundation maps (red)

matched well with FEMA flood maps (blue)


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Hurricane Irma


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West Palm Beach area


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TAMPA

…more appropriate domain?


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Hurricane Harvey


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Zoom

The ADCIRC CSTORM

simulations included tides,

surface winds and surface

pressures. 5 day

“forecast” period

performed in less than 2.5

hours using 1,716

processors on ERDC HPC

systems.

ADCIRC

Maximum

Elevation

ADCIRC Time Series

ADCIRC Storm Surge Results from NHC Advisory 20

ADCIRC Time Series

ADCIRC Time Series

ADCIRC

Maximum

Elevation


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• Leveraging USACE regional coastal studies• Gathering historical measurements and high-

fidelity climate, surge, and wave modeling results

• Creating national storm database • Web tool with Google Earth map interface• Data mining and analysis tools (plotting,

extremal analysis)• Surrogate modeling from database (high-

fidelity surge prediction layer)

1-m Flood in

New Orleans

Coastal Hazards System (CHS)13

Storm Track,

Flood Level,

Probabilities


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Surrogate Modeling: Reduced Order Modeling (ROM)

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• Databases of storm scenarios

(high-fidelity modeling). Cover

a wide range for

characteristics of future

regional hurricane/storms.

• Goal: Use basis scenarios to

develop an approximate

mathematical relationship

(surrogate model) for fast and

accurate prediction of new

hurricane scenarios.


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• Police

• Fire

• EMS

• Levee Districts

• Red Cross

• Relief Societies

NGOs Federal

StateLocal

Roles & Responsibilities

FEMA

• National Guard

• Emergency

Management

Services

Re

sto

re S

erv

ices

Op

era

te A

sse

ts

Nu

me

ric

al P

red

icti

on

Re

lief &

Sh

elte

r

Firs

t Re

sp

on

de

rs

Communication & Coordination

Sim

ula

tio

n


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Thank you for your attention!

island 63 modeling update - home | gfp · 2018. 7. 5. · us army corps of engineers engineer...

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