israel’s water master plan

The Stephen and Nancy Grand Water Research Institute Technion – Israel Institute of Technology

Israel’s Water Master Plan

V4 - 2012

Prof. Em. Uri Shamir Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Stephen and Nancy Grand Water Research Institute

Technion – Israel Institute of Technology

Consultant to the Israeli Water Authority

Member of the Israeli Negotiating Team on Water

Botin Foundation – Madrid – July 1 2013


Outline

Water situation in Israel

Basic information

Challenges Pressures

Challenges Responses

Israel’s main failures and accomplishments

New 2012 Water Master Plan


Israel’s Water Situation:

Data, Challenges, Responses

Similar challenges face other countries in our region and

in several other regions, but the responses have to be

adjusted to local conditions and capabilities


1000 mm/year and more

0-50 mm/year

~500-600 mm/year

Rainfall Distribution in the Region


Average Annual Potential

~1,200 mcm/yr Israeli system

~1,700 mcm/yr Med to Jordan R.

Western Galilee Aquifer

Carmel Aquifer

Coastal Aquifer

N. East

Mountain

Aquifer

East

West

Lake

Tel Aviv

Jerusalem

Haifa

WATER SOURCES

Negev Aq.

Arava Aq.

Highly integrated national

and regional systems

Kinneret Watershed

The Stephen and Nancy Grand Water Research Institute Technion – Israel Institute of Technology 6

Population:

2012 7.9 million +~0.3

2025 ~ 9 million

2050 ~ 14 million

15086 m3/capita/year

Total area:

21,000 square km

The southern half is

populated sparsely

Irrigated area

~2,000 square km

~10% of the total area

2050 11-16 million

Unaccounted


1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Israel, Time Scale: 2 years

S P

I

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

SPI

Drought Index (Precipitation) for the National System

2-year backward moving average of the total precipitation (Amir Givati, Meir Rom & Uri Shamir, IHS, March 2012)

SPI

SPI


Natural Replenishment (mcm/year) All Sources from Mediterranean Sea to Jordan River (exc. Gaza)

Data: “The Natural Water Resources Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River”, IHS 2012

1973-1992

Av = 1,848

SD = 684

1993-2009

Av = 1,643

SD = 465

1973-2009

Av = 1,748

SD = 584

Cum. Deficit

~1,770 mcm

Cum. Deficit

1,526+ mcm

1991/1992 - 3,839 mcm (Pinatubo?)

?


Uncertainties and Outcomes

Sources of uncertainty: population (size and distribution), demands (urban, agriculture, nature, regional), hydrology (precipitation and recharge), performance of system components, costs and benefits, pricing, laws and regulations, politics, international conditions

Desired outcomes: reliable supply of water quantity and quality, serve people, agriculture, protect species, efficiency, income, net benefit

Negative outcomes: loss of service, shortages, loss of species, financial loss, loss of professional reputation, loss of political position


Coping with Uncertainties

We recognize, we admit, and we allow that decisions (political/public as well as private) are taken with a subjective attitude (bias). This is partciularly true for decisions under uncertainty, which are difficult to grasp and to communicate, decisions whose consequences and uncertain.

And still, we strive to provide the DMs and society with tools that expose the meanings of uncertainty and the consequences of making decisions under uncertainty, so decisions can be made “with open eyes”, and have a good chance of resulting in minimum future regret (a possible definition of sustainability).



Large hydrological variability and

uncertainty with respect to future

hydrology

Possible impact of climate change

Frequent change in Israeli politics and

replacement of Ministers

Uncertainty in the political and

management domain can be the

most difficult to deal with



In the past >70% of fresh water were

used by the (politically powerful)

agricultural sector

As long as water for agriculture was

subsidized the Ministry of Treasury

refused to allow desalination

Population growth urban demand

for more potable water, now >50%

Result: overuse of the sources



Declining water quality in the sources

caused by human activities and

lower water levels

Rising quality standards for water (we do

have very good quality at the tap)

and for treated wastewater

Water agreements with our neighbors

potential reduction (?) of our share of

the regional resources



Reduced by more than 60%(!) fresh

water supply for irrigation

Replaced by sewage effluents, and

water productivity has multiplied

Water pricing moving towards full cost for

all sectors (including agriculture)

Water conservation in the urban sector

through pricing, regulations,

campaigns, education


0%‏

10%‏

Israel Spain Australia Italy Greece C.Europe

20%‏

30%‏

40%‏

50%‏

60%‏

70%‏

80%‏

1%>‏ 9%‏ 8%‏ 5%‏

18%

~80%

Reuse of Sewage Effluents (% of sewage)

(Sewage is ~80% of water used)


צריכת מים לנפש, מ"ק

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

סך הצריכה משקי בית תעשייה חקלאות

Water (incl. effluents) consumption, m3/cap/year

Total

Agriculture

(including effluents)

Urban

Industry

From: Prof. Yoav Kislev

~60% effluents


Urban Consumption (m3/cap/year)

1996-2011 & 2012 est.

Private homes + gardens

Municipal areas

(w/o Ag. & Ind.)

Total settled sector From: Sharon Nussbaum, IWA

The Stephen and Nancy Grand Water Research Institute Technion – Israel Institute of Technology From: Sharon Nussbaum, IWA

Delta = (105-90) x14 million = 210 mcm/year

= 70 mcm/year per 5 m3/cap decrease

Total Urban Consumption (m3/cap/year)

1996-2011 & 2012 est.

m3/c

ap/y

ear

15 m3


Natural Replenishment (mcm/year) & Desalination Plans All Sources from Mediterranean Sea to Jordan River (exc. Gaza)

Data Source: The Natural Water Resources Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, HIS 2012

1973-1992

Av = 1,848

SD = 684

1993-2009

Av = 1,643

SD = 465

1973-2009

Av = 1,748

SD = 584

Cum. Deficit

~1,770 mcm

Cum. Deficit

1,526+ mcm

1991/1992 - 3,839 mcm (Pinatubo?)

2001/2: Gov’t decision on

Desal. Plan of 400 mcm/yr

2002/3, 2,808 mcm: Desal.

Plan Reduced to 230 mcm/yr

?


Aquifers:

Storage

Demands

Replenishment

Spill

Replenishment

ζ1 Availability/Reliability ζ2 Results:

Supply Reliability

Shortage Probability

Spill Probability

State of the reservoir

and the aquifer Desalination

ζ3

Storage

Plan and design desalination

capacity for a prescribed level of

supply reliability

Random

Variables in Red

Kinneret

Q2 Q1

Q3

Discharge/spill


‏

Max Storage

Desalination

Shutdown

Water table

‘Pink Line’

‘Red Line’

Flows min

Level

Reference

Line

Replenishment

Desalination

Demand

Deficit

Deficit

Flows & Spills

‏

Max Storage

Desalination

Shutdown

Water table

‘Pink Line’

‘Red Line’

Flows min

Level

Reference

Line

Replenishment

Desalination

Demand

Deficit

Deficit

Flows & Spills

2012 Master Plan: Aggregate Model of the System


Three-Basin Model


Expanded Three-Basin Model


z:5

P:32

P:3

1P

:34

10P:28

P:3

0

P:33

z:8

z:6

z:1

z:3

z:7

z:2

z:9

P:45

P:44

P:40

P:42

P:46

P:48

8P:22

3P:11

P:8

P:7

4

5

6

P:1

0P

:12

P:1

5

P:36

P:9

P:49

2

P:4

P:6

P:5

P:47

P:19

P:16

1P:1

P:3

7P:2

P:2

4

P:2

0

P:2

1

P:13

P:3

5

P:39

P:14

P:37

9

P:2

5

P:26

P:2

7

P:18 P:41

P:23

P:43

P:2

9

P:17

P:3

8

Aq

uife

r 1

A

qu

ife

r 2

Aq

uife

r 3

Plant 4

Plant 5

Plant 3

Plant 2

Plant 1

11

12

13

14

z:4

40.3 (300)

40.3 (300)

26.2 (300)

7.5 (28.4)

0(-)

2.5 (13.6) 2.5 (13.6)

63.6 (195)

0.3

(1

3.6

)

2.2

(1

3.6

)

6.9

(3

00

)

0 (-)

94.2 (40.5) 40.3 (150)

18.2 (150)

9.1 (150)

40.3 (150)

40.3 (150)

40.3 (150)

26.7 (62.3)

18

.9 (

62

.3)

0 (-)

0 (-)

10.2 (13.5)

0 (-)

0.6 (62.3)

13 (62.3)

6.6 (300)

33.5 (13.5)

0 (-)7.4

(2

8.4

)

34 (62.3)

48.2 (62.3)69.2 (62.3)

0 (

-)0

(-)

23

.3 (

13

.5)

0 (-)

0 (-)

0 (

-)0

(-)

7.8

(6

2.3

)

11

0.7

(3

0.4

)

10.4 (62.3)

58.4

(6

2.3

)3

1.1

(6

2.3

)

31.1 (62.3)

0 (

-)

63.6 (195)

Legend:

Demand zone

Desalination plant Node

Aquifer P: Pipe id

Flow (Salinity)

Central part of the INWSS

3 aquifers, 5 desalination plants, 9 consumer zones, 14 network nodes


Ashkelon:

100+ mcm/y

since 2006

Palmachim:

30+ mcm/y

since 6/2007

We offered the

Palestinians to locate

a 50-100 mcm plant at

Hadera for the WB

Hadera: 100+ mcm/y

since end of 2009

Sorek: 150 mcm/y operational in 2013

15+15+27 = 57 mcm have been added to the three

existing plants total = 287 mcm/yr

25% of the natural replenishment (287/1,200)

Ashdod: 100 mcm/y operational in 2013

With Sorek and Ashdod

=> 550 mcm/y

~50% of 1,200


Hadera Desalination Plant: 100127 mcm/year

Operating since October 2009



Desalination of seawater (now ~300

mcm/yr in three large plants):

550-600 mcm/year by 2013

750 mcm/year by 2020 – decided,

subject to continuous re-evaluation so

as not to over-develop

Desalination of saline groundwater:

50 mcm/year

Sewage reclamation and reuse:

Expand: 300 500 mcm/year


Israel’s main failures

Overuse of the natural sources

Quality deterioration of the sources

Delayed decisions on large scale

desalination

Late attention to urban water

conservation

Governance of national infrastructures:

lack of coordination, slow statutory

and budget processes


Israel’s main accomplishments

Integrated national water policy and

central control, towards regulation

Highly integrated water supply system

Efficient water use in agriculture

Urban demand management

Reuse of sewage effluents

Large scale sea-water desalination +

desalination of brackish GW


A New Master Plan

Approved by the IWA Board:

V3 on 4.7.2011 & V4 on 9.8.2012

Being prepared for Consideration by

the Government


Long‐Term Master Plan for the National

Water Sector

Part A ‐ Policy Document

Version 4

August 2012


New Water Master Plan

~20 domains of policy, e.g., water and agriculture,

water for nature, protecting natural sources,

pricing, regulation

~ 5-25 components in each

Several alternatives policies for each component,

spanning a wide yet possible range

A set of criteria and indices for evaluation

Evaluation, synthesis, recommendations

Consequences: budget, major actions, constraints,

measures to overcome them

Example: desalination = function (Reliability)


Population Water Sources (mcm/year)

Year National

pop.

(m.)

Per capita

consumption

(cu.m. per

capita)

Year Natural

freshwate

r (1)

Saline

(direct

consumpti

on)

Treated

wastewater

(inc. Dan

STP)

Desalinatio

n of saline

waters

Desalinatio

n of sea

water (2)

Required

supplem

ent (3)

Total

supply

2010 7.6 100 2010 1,200 174 450 23 280 4 2,131

2020 9.1 99 2020 1,140 150 573 50 750 9 2,672

2030 10.9 98 2030 1,080 140 685 60 750 50 2,765

2050 15.6 95 2050 1,020 130 930 70 750 671 3,571

Year

Urban

Water Consumption (mcm/year)

Industry Agriculture Regio

nal

(1)

Reser

voir

storag

e

recovr

y

Nature and

landscape(2)

Unfor

eseea

bles

Total

consu

mptio

n Fresh-

water

Saline Total Fresh-

water

(3)

Saline Treated

wastewater

(+Dan STP)

Total

2010 764 90 30 120 500 144 400 1,044 143 0 10 60 0 2,131

2020 902 95 30 124 490 120 528 1,138 143 200 50 95 70 2,672

2030 1,064 99 30 129 470 110 645 1,225 143 0 50 90 114 2,765

2050 1,482 108 30 138 450 100 900 1,450 143 0 50 80 278 3,571

In 2008, an additional 46 mcm of floodwater was used that was not taken into account. (1) Total average replenishment of natural freshwater, less losses for water with less than 400 mg. of chloride per liter. (2) “Desalination of sea water” – according to the approved government decisions. (3) “Required supplement” = the difference between total consumption of freshwater (bottom table) and total sources of freshwater.

(1) Regional consumption includes supply to the PA and Jordan. (2) Some of the treated wastewater used for nature and landscape is treated wastewater that is not actually used, and flows in ri verbeds. (3) The decline in consumption of freshwater for agriculture is contingent on conversion to high quality treated wastewater, and a change in definitions of well protection radii.

The National Balance – Basic Scenario


התפלה נדרשת כתלות במדיניות אמינות אספקה*

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050שנה

ק"מ

למ

,ה

לפ

תה

75% 90%95% 100%מחסור מקסימאלי 250 מלמ"ש תוכנית מאושרתתוכנית מומלצת

* נבחנה על בסיס תרחישים שהוגדרו

Desalination Capacity Development, as function of Required Reliability D

esalin

ati

on

Cap

acit

y (

mcm

/year)

Currently approved capacity Max allowed shortage 250 mcm/y

Recommended desal. development plan

Year

Proposed in the new Master Plan,

approved by the Board of the Water

Authority on 4.7.2011 (V3) and 9.8.2012

(V4) Desal up to 1,500-1,700 mcm/year


תוחלת האוגר כתלות באמ ות

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

ה

קמ"מל ,רוגא

75% 90% 95% מחסור 250 מלמ"ש 100% אוגר רצוי

Expected value of storage above “Red Lines”, as a function of Reliability

With the Recommended Desalination Capacity Development Plan

Sto

rag

e M

CM

Year

Recom Max Deficit 250 mcm


What else? Management of the Kinneret and its watershed for

ecological health, water supply, fisheries,

recreation and tourism

Protection and sustainable management of GW

Grey water recycling

Effluents advanced treatment potable water quality

Stormwater/Runoff management and Water Sensitive

planning (WSP, LID) for increased benefits

(recharge, use, landscaping, …) and reduced

costs (flooding, erosion)

The effects of climate change: serious, but less

dramatic than the increasing population


Israel can meet the water needs of the increasing

population to 2050 and beyond, at a reasonable cost

[which I have not discussed explicitly].

Many places in the world are facing mounting water

challenges, so Israel’s experience is relevant as an

indication of what does and will happen, what can and

should be done and what should be avoided, and what

some of the responses and solutions might be.

These solutions have to be adapted and adjusted in each

country to the local physical, social, economic and

political conditions.

Take Home Message


Miki Zaide, Mo Provisor, Yosi Dreizin – Core Group of

the Master Plan of the Israeli Water Authority (IWA)

Directors of the IWA Uri Shani and Alex Kushnir, the

Board of the IWA and the Minister of Energy and

Water Uzi Landau

Data from: IWA Planning Division, Hydrologic

Service, Division of Regulation, Desalination Division

Credits and Thanks

Thanks to Ramon Llamas, the Botin

Foundation, and the Audience


Israel’s Water Master Plan (2012)

Prof. Em. Uri Shamir Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Stephen and Nancy Grand Water Research Institute

Technion – Israel Institute of Technology

Consultant to the Israeli Water Authority

Member of the Israeli Negotiating Team on Water

Botin Foundation – Madrid – July 1 2013

israel’s water master plan

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