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Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter149 Winter2017

ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 149

Winter 2017


Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 149

Winter 2017

PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand

Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt,

[email protected]

CONTENTS Page

Foreword from our President 3

Conferences 4

Reports 5-7

Around the Regions 8-10

Letter / Obituary 11-12

Autumn : NIWA review 12-13

Notable events 14-23

Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 23

Pick of the clips 24-58

Your Committee

President Sylvia Nichol

Immediate Past President Daniel Kingston

Secretary Katrina Richards

Treasurer Gregor Macara

Circulation Manager Zoe Buxton

Auckland VP Petra Pearce

Hamilton VP Tim Gunn

Wellington VP James Renwick

Christchurch VP Adrian MacDonald

Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston

Journal Editor Nava Fedaeff with Jim Renwick

Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt

Website Liaison Stefanie Kremser

General Committee Mike Revell

Michael Martens

Charles Pearson

Lisa Murray

Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the

contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand.

The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they

are endorsed or recommended by the Society.


Welcome to the Winter 2017 Newsletter.

We are halfway through the year already, and so it’s a good time for an update on the committee’s activities. Planning for this year’s con-ference is well underway. The conference will be held in Dunedin at the Otago Museum from Monday 13th to Wednesday 15th Novem-ber. There will be three styles of presentations (poster, oral, and short Pecha-Kucha type). We would like expressions of interest to be entered into a Google Form (see our website for the link) by 31 July. We are also in the early stages of upgrading our website. This newsletter contains reports from two students who were award-ed MetSoc student travel grants. This helped them to attend an overseas conference. It is great to be able to assist our student members in this way.

Best wishes, Sylvia Nichol

President , NZ Met Soc


MeteorologicalSocietyofNewZealandAnnualConferenceMonday13–Wednesday15November2017

OtagoMuseum,Dunedin

FirstcircularandcallforExpressionsofInterestWearepleased toannounce that theMeteorological SocietyofNew Zealand’sannualconferencewillbeheldinDunedinatOtagoMuseum.Theconferencewillcoverallaspectsofclimatologyandmeteorology,fromobservations,numericalpredictionstoresearchandclimateprojections.

TheSocietyinvitescontributionsonanytopicassociatedwithmeteorologyandclimate.Theseinclude(butarenotlimitedto)thelarge-scalecirculationoftheatmosphereandoceans,ocean-atmosphereinteractionsandphysicaloceanogra-phy, remote sensing, atmospheric chemistry, urbanmeteorology, air pollution,

hydrological applications, agricultural- and bio-meteorology, weather and cli-matehazardsandimpacts,includingglobalchange,andthehistoryofNewZea-landmeteorologyandoceanography.Therewillbethreepresentationoptions:Posterpresentations,withanassociatedone-minuteintroduction.

Standardoralpresentations,of20minuteduration,includingQ/A.Short,Pecha-Kucha typeoral presentations,withquestions forall speakersattheendofthesession.The number of oral presentationswill be limited. In addition, wewill have anumber of invited speakers giving keynote presentations at the beginning of

eachday.PleasegotoourwebsitetocompletetheGoogleFormtoindicateyourexpres-sionsofinterest,includingyourpreferredstyleofpresentation,by31July2017.Please direct any questions about the conference to Stefanie Kremser, stefan-ie@bodekerscienti ic.com.Asmallregistrationfeefortheconferencewillbeset

inAugust.Theconferenceprogramme,includingtheconferencedinnerandtheSocietyAGM,willbereleasedinOctober.-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

AMOS-ICSHMO2018,UNSWSydney,5-9February2018

The12thAMS"SouthernHemisphere"conferenceandthe25thAustralianMeteoro-logicalandOceanographicSocietyconferencewillbeheldattheUniversityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,during5-9February2018.

Theoverallthemeoftheconferenceis"EarthSystemScienceandServices".

SessionsmaybeinlinewiththisthemeorcoveranytopicrelevanttoSouthernHemisphericoceanographyandmeteorology,includingareassuchas:1)Oceanographicprocessesandobservations2)Atmosphericprocesses3)Climate4)Weather5)Landsurfaceprocesses6)Cryosphere7)ClimateservicesandCommunityengagement

Check out https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/meetings-events/ams-meetings/amos-icshmo-2018/formoreinformation

ConferencesummaryChrisCameron:

Chris Cameron attended the European Geosciences Union General Assembly

2017(EGU2017)inVienna,Austriafromthe23-28April2017withthesupportofaStudentTravelGrantfromtheMeteorologicalSocietyofNewZealand.Here-portsbackhereonhisexperience.Mypresentationtookplaceonthe irstmorningoftheconference,whichhadthe

bene itofgettingitbehindmeearly,allowingforaclearfocusonothertalksandeventsovertheremainderoftheweek.Inmytalk,Icoveredthelatest indingsonmyPhDresearchintothecharacteristicsoftheAntarcticcircumpolarstrato-sphericvortex-comparinghowwellitisrepresentedasamixingbarrierinrea-nalysiscomparedwiththeUKMetOf iceUni iedModel(UM)andhowrepresen-

tationofthevortexinthelatestdynamicalcoreoftheUMdiffersfromtheprevi-ouscore.Mytalkwaswellattendedbyaround60-80people,andreceivedsomeinsightfulandprobingquestionsthatindicatedahighdegreeofinterestinthetopic.ImadeapointofthankingMetSocfortheirtravel funding supportinmypresentation.

Apartfromotherpresentationsonatmosphericscience,oneofthegreatbene itsoftheEGUwastheabilitytoattendtalksonawiderangeofearthsciencestop-ics.Ifoundthattheseweregreatinbroadeningmyscienceknowledgeandfasci-natingintermsoftherangeofactivitytakingplace.

SessionsIattendedincluded:SpaceactivitiesinNASAandESA(theEuropeanSpaceAgency)Onlinespatialanalysisusingthe‘Googleearthengine’SealevelriseandstormsurgemodellingintheUSCommunicationandengagementfornaturalhazardsandrisk

Main entrance to the Austria Center Vienna,

venue for EGU 2017

Iamverygrateful forsupportfromtheMe-teorological Society for me to attend theEGU2017.Thanks,MetSoc!

ChrisCameron


ConferencesummaryJordisTradowsky:JordisTradowskyattendedthe9thGCOSReferenceUpper-AirNetwork(GRUAN)ImplementationandCoordinationMeeting(ICM)inHelsinkiwiththesupportof

aStudentTravelGrantoftheMeteorologicalSocietyofNewZealand.ICM-9tookplaceinHelsinki,Finland fromthe12th-16thofJune2017withanoptionalsitevisitoftheGRUANsideSodankyläinnorthernFinland,whichJordisattended.AttheyearlyICMs,theGRUANcommunitydiscussesthechallengesofproviding reference qualitymeasurements and data products. During the last

years special attention is given to the management of instrument change asmanyGRUANsitesarereplacingtheradiosondeRS92fromVaisalawiththeRS41fromVaisala.Extensiveduallaunchcampaignsareperformedatseveralsitestoevaluatepotentialdifferencesbetweentheradiosondes.During the conference Jordis gave two oral presentations and presented one

posterassummarisedbelow:OralPresentation:ComparisonofGRUANpro ileswithradiooccultationbending

angles propagated into temperature space. A station-by-station comparison ofGRUAN temperature departureswith temperature departures calculated fromradiooccultationbendingangledeparturesispresented.Thedeparturesarecal-

culated with respect to background ields from the UK Met Of ice numericalweatherpredictionsystem,whichisusedasatransfermediumtominimizeef-fectsof imperfect collocationbetween theGRUANandradiooccultationmeas-urements.Originallythismethodwasdevelopedtocorrectradiosondetempera-turebiases in theoperationalnumericalweather forecastasdescribed inTra-

dowsky et al. (2017). See http://storage.bodekerscienti ic.com/presentation_RO_GRUAN_Jordis_not_animated.pdfOralpresentation:AnUpdate from the InternationalRadioOccultationWorking

GroupMeeting2016. Jordisparticipatedat the InternationalRadioOccultation

Working Group (IROWG)Meeting in September 2016 to represent the GRUANcommunityandthistalkfacilitatedaknowledgetransfertotheGRUANcommu-nity.TheradioradiooccultationtechniqueisusingthesignalsoftheGlobalNavi-gationSatelliteSystemtomeasurethetimedelayofaradiosignalwhentravers-ing theatmosphere.From the time delay, thebendingangle canbecalculated

and assumptions allow the retrieval of atmospheric temperature pro iles.Amongotherthings,Jordispresentedtheongoingeffortintheradiooccultationcommunitytoprovideuncertaintyestimatestogetherwiththetemperaturepro-ilesretrievedfromtheradiooccultationmeasurements.Thereisanongoingex-changebetweenthecommunitiesandasJordishasbeenworkingwithbothcom-

munitiesduringthelastyears,shewillcontinuetheexchangeandalsotakepartin the next IROWG meeting in September 2017. See http://storage.bodekerscienti ic.com/update_from_IROWG_Jordis_not_animated.pdfPosterpresentation:ASiteAtmospheric StateBestEstimateof Temperature for

Lauder,NewZealand. SiteAtmosphericStateBestEstimates (SASBEs, [1])com-


binemeasurementsfrommultipleinstrumentstocreatethebestpossibleverti-callyresolvedhightemporalresolutiontimeseriesoftheparameterofinterestaboveonesite.TheSASBEcontainsallavailableknowledgeofthestateofthetar-

getvariableatthatsiteandincludesanestimateoftheuncertaintyoneachda-tum. Jordispresenteda temperatureSASBE for theGRUAN siteatLauder, NewZealand. As upper-air measurements are sparse in the southern hemisphere,

SASBEs for Lauder will be particu-larlyvaluableforsatelliteandmod-

el validation. See http://storage.bodekerscienti ic.com/ICM9_poster_SASBE_Jordis.pdfFigure1:Jordispresentingherpost-

er to JohnEyre from theUKMetOf-

ice.

During ICM9 Jordis caught up withseveral colleagues that she got toknow during the irst two years of

her PhD project and also invitedherselftoseveralnewcolleagues.Asayoungresearcher,itisofhighimportancetobuildaninternationalnetworkandJordisisverygratefulforthesupportthat

themeteorological SocietyofNewZealandprovidedforhertoattend

this meeting. She is now lookingforwardtoasuccessfullastyearofherPhDprojectandtotheupcom-ing ICM-10 in Potsdam, GermanyinApril2018.

Figure 2: Conference photo from

the9thGRUANImplementationand

CoordinationMeetinghostedbythe

FinnishMeteorologicalInstitute.

Paperpresented:

Tradowsky, J. S., Burrows, C. P., Healy, S. B., and Eyre, J. R. (2017). A new method to correct radiosonde tempera-ture biases using radio occultation data. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. doi:10.1175/JAMC0136.1


RegionalMeetingsduringAutumnAuckland25MarchANTARCTICA-whileyouweresleeping

What happens in Antarctica has a signi icant impact on the entire planet.Weknowaboutclimatechange,butwhatarewedoingaboutit?In partnershipwith theDeep South Challenge, this was an evening of debatefromanexpertpaneldiscussingwhetherweareworkingtogethereffectivelyto

both reduceandadapt to climate change.Thisevent celebratedANTARCTICA -whileyouwere sleeping, an installationbyartist JosephMichael,which bringsAntarcticatolifethroughaprojectionofafull-scaleicebergontothewallsoftheMuseum.Theimmersivethree-nighteventwillbringsoundandvisiontogetherinacinematiccollisionofnatureandarchitectureonanepicscale.

TheDeepSouthChallenge

12AprilBubbles:TheBathandBeyond

Bubblesareafascinatingandimportantpartofoureverydayworld,they’reeve-rywhere–notjustwhenyoudothedishesorhaveabath.However,whatdobub-blesdoandwhyaretheyimportant?It’snotallobvious–snailsblowbubblestoloat,penguinsusethemtogofasterandthereisaprecisetechnicalreasonastowhybubblesareachampagneconnoisseur’sbestfriend.DrHelenCzerski’sown

research isonthe formationandstructureofbubblesmadebybreakingoceanwaves,aswellastheimpactthesebubbleshaveonweatherandclimate.DrHelenCzerskiisaBritishphysicist,oceanographer,broadcasterandauthorofStorminaTeacup–ThePhysicsofEverydayLife(2016)

20AprilA k i w i s c i e n t i s t h e l p i n g t o s e c u r e l i f e o n e a r t h .

Radar System Engineer Dr DelwynMoller hasmade headlines for her award-winningwork in remote sensing technology. The University of Auckland Engi-neeringalumdevelopedtechnologynowbeingusedinmulti-nationalmissionstomore accuratelymeasure global sea level rise andmap the planet for vital

freshwater.Growingupinthe smalltownofPutaruruintheWaikato,DelwynenrolledinaBachelorofEngineeringattheUniversityofAuckland,majoringinElectricalandElectronicEngineering.Shewasawardedagovernmentscholarshipforwomenin science and technology, and continued on to do herMaster of Engineeringwithin theFacultyofEngineering,majoring inGeothermalEnergyTechnology,

andgraduatingin1992.ShewasthenacceptedintotheUniversityofMassachu-setts Amherst to complete a PhD in electrical engineering,which led into herworkatNASA’sJetPropulsionLaboratory.Shehasbeenworkingatsystemspro-viderRemoteSensingSolutionssince2008astheirPrincipalSystemsEngineer.DelwynlivesinCaliforniawithherhusbandDrBrianPollard,whodevelopedra-

dar technology to guide the descent toMars of the Curiosity rover. Outside ofwork,sheisavolunteerforLosAngelesCountyParamediccrews,apurplebeltinBrazilianjiujitsu,andaquali iedhelicopterpilot.


30 May The Age of Consequences – screening as part of the Documentary Edge

Film Festival. Screened in Wellington on 14 17 May

Described as TheHurtLocker meets AnInconvenientTruth, the ilm employs ad-

mirals, generals and veterans to take us beyond the headlines of some of the

most important events of the last few years — the con lict in Syria, the social un-

rest of the Arab Spring, the rise of radicalised groups like ISIS and more — and

how climate change stressors interact with them.

Taking an eye-opening approach to climate change, TheAgeofConsequences re-

frames concern for the environment into a question of international security.

Viewed by the US military and security experts as a 'threat multiplier' for insta-

bility, climate change is re-positioned at the heart of current global unrest.

Droughts and loods lead to food shortages, con lict over resources and mass dis-

placement. see http://docedge.nz/ ilm/the-age-of-consequences/

Hamilton/Raglan

Tim has emailed several people about Tech Talks, which are held at the Raglan

of ice of MetOcean. A recent talk was about the southern-most wave bouy.

Wellington

22 March : Our rivers: learning from the past to create a better future, by Catherine Knight

The government recently announced a proposal to make more of our rivers

‘swimmable’ by 2040 – it has attracted signi icant controversy, demonstrating

the level of concern about the state of our rivers among ordinary New Zea-

landers. In this talk, Dr Catherine Knight provided important context to this de-

bate by presenting our complex – and often con licted – history with rivers since

humans irst settled in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Information about presenter: Catherine Knight is an environmental historian.

New Zealand’s Rivers: An environmental history (Canterbury University Press,

2016) has been longlisted for the Ockham New Zealand Book Awards 2017 and

was selected as one of the Listener’s Best Books for 2016. Catherine works in en-

vironmental policy and lives on the Kapiti Coast with her family.

23 March Sea Level Rise - The Real Deal in 2100, by Nancy Bertler, VUW/GNS

New research suggests that a global sea level rise of at least 1m is possible by the

end of the century due to climate change. Dr Nancy Bertler is the Chief Scientist

of the 9-nation Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE), a project which focus-

es on the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in a warming world.

31 March Being Milankovitch, by Stephen R. Meyers

When Milankovitch cycles are preserved in the geologic record, they provide a

direct link between chronometer and climate change, and thus a remarkable op-

portunity to constrain the evolution of the sur icial Earth System. Consequently,

the identi ication of such cycles has allowed exploration of the geologic record


withunprecedentedtemporalresolution,andhasspurredthedevelopmentofarichtheoreticalframeworkforclimaticchange.Accompanyingthesesuccesses,however,hasbeenapersistentscepticism:how

doesonereliablytestforastronomicalforcing/pacinginpaleoclimatedata,es-peciallywhentimeispoorlyconstrained?Applicationofanewmethodpresentedinthistalkilluminatedwhatitmeansto“beMilankovitch”,showingnewconstraintsontheevolutionoftheSolarSystemandtheastronomicalsolutionsthemselves.

28MarchGlobalteleconnectionoperators:amethodforassessingregionalclimatesensi-tivitiestoSSTpatterns,byChrisE.Forest,PennsylvaniaStateUniversity

Uncertainty in regional climate predictions is a critical component of under-standingrisksoffutureclimateimpacts.When forcedbyhistoricaltropicalseasurface temperature (SST) patterns, atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs)showreasonableskillatreproducingregionalclimatechangeovercon-tinents.InthistalkmultipleAGCMsoverseveralcontinentswereusedtoshow

idealized SST anomaly patterns and de ine a global teleconnection operator(GTO)asatoolforinvestigatingregionalclimatesensitivitiesofindividualmod-els.7AprilTheLastGlacialMaximuminsubtropicalAustraliabyLyndaPetherick

Acontinuous,highresolutionrecordencompassingtheterminationoftheLastGlacial Cycle (LGC) (de ined here as ca. 31-18 kyr) has been developed usingmultiple proxies (viz. sediment lux, grain size, moisture content, pollen andcharcoal)inlakesedimentfromTortoiseLagoon(TOR),subtropicalQueensland,

Australia. Our reconstructions show that latitudinalwesterlywind circulationwasdominantduringtheLGMintwophases,suggestinganequatorwardshiftinthepositionofthewesterlies.Westerliesappearedtoshiftpolewardduringtheinterstadialperiod,whensoutheasterlytradewindsbecamemorein luentialonNorthStradbrokeIsland.

DunedinMarchBrewsterGlacier-abenchmarkforinvestigatingglacier-climateinterac-

tionsintheSouthernAlpsofNewZealand,byNicolasCullenSubglacial bathymetry and the future of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet, by Prof.

ChristinaHulbe,SchoolofSurveying12April Re lectionson theAustralianClimateandWaterSummer Institute byJosieCairns,Dept.ofGeography,Otago

11 May Measuringseasonalsnowpackwithdronephotogrammetry Todd Red-path,UniversityofOtago,SchoolofSurveyingandDepartmentofGeography15MaySeaice,iceshelvesandtheocean(InauguralProfessorialLecture)byPatLanghorne,UniversityofOtago,DepartmentofPhysics


A tale of two cyclones

TC Debbie (March/April 2017) received a great deal of attention in news media

but much of this was misinformation where NZ was concerned.

50 years of records of tropical cyclone tracks in the SW Paci ic revealed only one

which resembled that of TC Debbie. That was tropical cyclone Althea in Decem-

ber 1971 (a busy season unlike 2016/17). Althea made landfall in Queensland

and turned southward, weakening. It

then changed course towards the east.

Moving slowly after re-crossing the

coast it re-intensi ied, generating

winds of storm force brie ly before

weakening to gale intensity and then

accelerating southward and illing over

the Tasman Sea to the west of West-

port.

CycloneAlthea,Dec1971

The path of TC Debbie was remarkably similar but in the inal phase its behav-

iour was quite different. Moving slowly

away from the Queensland coast the low-

level circulation, embedded in a mid-

latitude trough, steadily weakened and it

dissipated to the east of Lord Howe Is-

land at about latitude 28.5 South on the

4th of April. That was its inal analysed

position.

CycloneDebbie,March/April2017

The cyclogenesis occurring near and

over northern NZ in the same mid-latitude trough at about this time prolonged

the heavy rain already occurring there but was not a continuation of Debbie.

CliffRevell

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Obituary

Christopher Rhodes de Freitas (1948 to 2017) died in

Auckland, New Zealand on 5 July 2017, following a two-

year struggle with cancer. He was married to Nancy de

Freitas (nee Howard) with whom he had two sons, Colin

Alexander de Freitas and Andrew Lawrence de Freitas.

Chris received his early education in Trinidad in the

West Indies. He completed Bachelors and Masters de-

grees at the University of Toronto in Canada and a PhD

at the University of Queensland in Australia as a Com-

monwealth Doctoral Scholar.


Colleaguesandfriendswillrememberhimasamanofstrongcharacter,princi-pled, loyal to his family and friends withWest Indianwit and humour at theready.HeneverlosthisCaribbeanaccentcompletely.

Hisstudentsappreciatedhimforhisenthusiasticlecturingstyle,hishighexpec-tationsthattheyshouldthinkforthemselves,usesoundlogic,designtheirinves-tigationswellandaboveall,thinkcritically.Hewasgenerousinsupportoftheirresearchendeavours,alwaysavailabletodiscussideasorassistwithproblemstheyencounteredintheirwork.

Chris’ownresearchinterestscoveredavarietyofthemes.Hehasover200publi-cationsintheareasofappliedclimatology,bioclimatology,meteorology,environ-mental change,microclimatology and general review commentaries, includingtwo recent books, New Environmentalism: Managing New Zealand’s Environ-mentalDiversity,andNaturalHazardsinAustralasia.Hewasalsoanadvocateof

openandwellinformedreportingonscienti icissuesandhaswrittenextensive-lyinnewspapersandmagazinesonavarietyofenvironment-relatedthemes,in-cludingairquality, loodanddroughthazards,environmentalconservationandclimate change. In recognitionof this, he was three times the recipient of theNewZealandAssociationofScientists,ScienceCommunicatorAward.Hisresearchandwritingcontinuetohaveanimpactinthe ieldsofclimatology,

bioclimatology and environmental change through the many journal publica-tionsandbookshewroteduringhislonganddistinguishedcareer.DuringhistimeatTheUniversityofAucklandheservedasDeputyDeanofSci-ence,HeadofScienceandTechnologyattheTamakicampusand fouryearsasProViceChancellor.HewasVicePresidentoftheMeteorologicalSocietyofNew

Zealand,VicePresidentofthe InternationalSocietyofBiometeorologyandwasco-founderoftheAustraliaNewZealandClimateForum.For10yearshewasaneditoroftheinternationaljournal'ClimateResearch'.http://www.hospicenorthshore.org.nz/ways-to-help/donate/=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Autumn2017NIWAWettestautumnonrecordforpartsoftheNorthIslandRainfallWellabovenormalrainfall(>150%ofautumnnormal)wasexperiencedacrossthe majority of the North Island. Autumn rainfall was well above normal for

partsofthenorthernandeasternSouthIsland,includingNelson,Marlborough,andcoastalCanterbury.Anumberof locations recorded theirwettestor near-wettest autumn on record. The west and south of the South Island (south ofHokitika)experiencedlessrainfallthanusual forautumn,with somelocationsrecordingwellbelowrainfall(<50%ofautumnnormal).

TemperaturesAutumn2017temperatureswereaboveaverage(+0.50°Cto+1.20°C)foralmosttheentireNorthIsland.Therewerepocketsofwellaboveaveragetemperatures(>+1.20°C)intheBayofPlentyandAuckland.TheeasternsideoftheSouthIs-landmostlyexperiencednear(-0.50°Cto+0.50°C)orbelowaverage(-1.20°Cto-

0.51°C) temperatures. Thewestern South Island observed above average tem-


peratures.SoilmoistureAttheendofautumn2017soilmoisturewaswellabovenormalalongtheeast

coastoftheNorthIslandsouthofGisborne,aroundWhanganui,andinMarlbor-ough, eastern Canterbury and Otago. Soils were drier than normal in mid-Canterbury, central Otago and southeast Southland. Soil moisture levels werenearnormalelsewhere.Sunshine

Autumnsunshinewasnearnormal(90-109%ofautumnnormal)forNorthlandtoWaikato,theWestCoast,inlandCanterburyandpartsofcentralOtago.Belownormalsunshine(75-89%ofautumnnormal)wasobservedincentralNewZea-land(southernNorthIslandandnorthernSouthIsland).Overview

Fortheautumnseasonasawhole,meansealevelpressureswereabovenormaloverandtothesouthwestofNewZealand,whichresultedinmorenortheasterlywindsthanusualovertheNorthIslandandmoreeasterlywindsthanusualovertheSouthIsland.Theanomalousnortherly lowovertheNorthIslandcausednu-merousmoist,tropicalairmassestotraveldowntoNewZealand,includingtwoex-tropicalcyclones,whichdeliveredsigni icantamountsofraintothetopofthe

country duringMarch and April. These rainfall events caused severe loodingandslipsforpartsoftheNorthIsland,particularlyAuckland,Coromandel,andBayofPlenty,aswellasthetopoftheSouthIsland.Moredetailsabouttheseex-tremeeventscanbe foundintheHighlightsandExtremeEvents sectionbelow.Temperaturesweregenerallywarmer thanusual forautumnacross theNorth

Islandduetothenortherly lows.Incontrast,thepredominanteasterly lowovertheSouthIslandcausedwetterthannormalconditionsfortheexposedregionsofeasternCanterburyandOta-go,butshelteringofwesternandsouthernpartsencourageddrierthannormalconditions to persist for the season in Southland, Central Otago and the West

Coast.TemperatureswerenearaverageformostoftheSouthIsland,andslightlybelow average for parts of coastal Canterbury. In contrast, the sheltered WestCoastexperiencedaboveaveragetemperaturesforautumn.NIWAClimateScientistNavaFedaeffbringsyouhighlightsandstatisticsfromAu-tumn2017.

FurtherhighlightsThehighesttemperaturewas33.0°C,observedatLeestonon17March.The lowest temperature was -6.9°C, observed atMiddlemarch on 22May. Thehighest 1-day rainfallwas 231.8mm, recorded at North Egmonton 11March.Thehighestwindgustwas167km/hr,observedatAkitioon19May.

Ofthe sixmaincentresinautumn2017,Aucklandwasthewarmestandsunni-est,Taurangawas thewettest,Dunedinwas thedriestandWellingtonwas theleast sunny, and Dunedin and Christchurch were both the coolest.

ContactMrChrisBrandolino,PrincipalScientist–Forecasting,NIWA093756335.


NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ: AUTUMN 2017

Autumn 2017 was memorable for the wet, stormy weather of March and the irst

half of April, most three very severe rain events, two of them involving ex-tropical cyclone. However, the second half of April was more settled. May saw a

different weather pattern, with more southerly lows and cooler temperatures.

MARCH

1st - Downpours cause surface looding in Auckland suburbs of Penrose and Mt

Wellington.

3rd - Unusual wave shaped clouds seen from Christchurch. (similar clouds also

seen in Tauranga on 14th and in Wellington on 23rd) Warm day in east of South

Island, before cool southerly sends temperatures rapidly dropping in afternoon.

Dunedin plummets from 26C to 14C in only 10 minutes.

5th - Warm day in north and east of South Island in a westerly low, eg 30C maxi-

mum in Motueka.

7th-13th - Very heavy rain and looding in many North Island areas. (see details

below)

17th - Warm in east of South Island, eg 33C maximum in Leeston. Thick fog in

parts of coastal Otago and Invercagill, causing disruption the airport there and

Dunedin Airport.

20th - Westerly gales in southeast of North Island, eg 137 km/hr gust recorded at

Castlepoint.

22nd - Fog causes disruption at New Plymouth Airport.

26th - Thunderstorms in Northland and Auckland, with heavy rain causing lood-

ing in some Auckland suburbs.

29th - Thick sea fog affects southern parts of Wellington, focing cancellation of

lights to and from the airport, and leading to several road crashes due to low

visibility. Heavy rain in north of North Island, with downpours causing lash

looding South Auckland. Flooding and slips also affect the Coromandel Peninsu-

la.

30th - Areas of fog in Otago and Southland, disrupting operations at Dunedin and

Invercargill Airports

APRIL

1st - Unusually warm in Central Otago, under a northerly low. Wanaka records a

26C maximum (a new April record), while Queenstown reaches 24C.

2nd - Very warm in northern and eastern areas, due to a northwesterly low. New

April maximum records broken in Hastings (30C), Gisborne (29C), Wairoa (28C),

and Motu. (25C) However, temperatures fall rapidly in the east of the South Is-

land in the afternoon, due to a cool southerly change.

3rd-6th - Storm including renmants of Cyclone Debbie brings heavy rain and

looding to many areas. (see details below)

11th-14th - Yet another storm brings heavy rain and looding, with ex-tropical


CycloneCookalsobringingseveregales.(seedetailsbelow)16th/17th -Thunderstorms inmanyNorth Islandareas. Small tornadocausessomedamageinOwhata,Rotorua.(16th)Walnutsizedhailreportedfromanoth-

erstorminGisborne.(afternoon17th)28th -Winds reachgale in exposedpartsof the lowerSouth Island,e.g. a122km/hrgustrecordedatLauder.30th -Heavyrain results in several slipsonSH3 inNorthTaranaki.Gales lashCentral NZ, with some damage around Wellington. Gusts reach 156 km/hr atBrothersIslandand100km/hrinHawera.(newAprilrecordinlatterstation).

Cold southerly spreads over southern and central areas, with snow down toabout700minpartsofSouthIsland.Mostski- ieldreceiveabout5cmofsnow.Only9CmaximuminQueenstownand8CinOamaru.MAY

1st - Cold southerly over NZ; dying out over South Island in afternoon. Freshsnowonmountainsofbothislands.2nd-HeavyraininFiordland,e.g.176mmatMilfordSoundand166mmatSecre-tary Island. (anewMayrecord). Somewhat sheltered from thenorthwest low,Manapourirecords40mm.

3rd/4th - Cold front crosses South Island on 3rd and North Island overnight.Coldersouthtosouthwest lowfollowsthefront,withmoresnowonranges.8th-HeavyfoginTimarucausesdisruptionatcity'snearbyairport,whileashipcannotdockintheharbour,duetopoorvisibility.10th-UnusuallymildinlowerNorthIslandunderalightnorthtonortheast low,

e.g.23CmaximuminWaione.MorningforcausesdisruptionatChristchurchAir-port.11th/12th-Heavyraininmanynorthernandcentralareas.FloodinginTasmanDistrict on 11th, with waste-water over lowing onto school ground in Mapua.SlipclosesSH2throughWaimanaGorgeinBayofPlentyon12th.Ohakunerec-

ords62mmon11th,anewMayrecord,whileWaiourureceives59mmandTaupo81mmonthesameday.Unseasonablywarminmanynorthernareasovernight,withminimumsaround17C-18C.18th-ColdfrontcrossesSouthIslandlateafternoonandevening,bringingacoldsoutherlychangewithsomesnowonthehills.Snow fallsonupperCanterbury

PlainsandPortHills.(butnotsettlingthere)Windsreachgaleinexposedcoastalareasineast.priortothechange,heavyraincauses loodinginpartsofTasmanDistrict.19th/20th-AnothercoldfrontcrossesSouthIslandduringafternoonandeven-ingof19thandNorthIslandovernight19th/20th,bringingevencoldersouthto

southwinds,withgalesinexposedplaces.(Kaikoherecordsa89km/hrguston20th - anewMayrecord)Snowshowers reach sea-level inpartsofOtagoandSouthland.Thesnowsettles inDunedin'shill suburbs,andclosesSH1overthenorthernmotorway. Snow also causes disruption to QueenstownAirport. Fur-thernorth,snowcoatsBanksPeninsulaandPortHillsandtheRimutakaRanges.(thoughnotsettlingonSH2)DustingsofsnowseenasfarnorthasMtTarawera,


whileroadsthroughtheCentralNorthislandhighcountryareclosed.(someve-hicleshave to towedoff theDesert Road)Up to25cmsnow is recordedonMtRuapehu.HeavyseasabouteasterncoastsandCookStraitleadtothecancella-

tionofInterislanderferrieson20th.Takakarecordsahighofonly7Con20th.21st -Southtosouthwest loweasesoverNZ,butheavyseascontinuetobattereasterncoastlinesandCookStrait,forcingcancellationoffurtherCookStraitfer-rysailings.22nd-SeverefrostsstartthedayinmanypartsofNorthIslandinwakeofprevi-

ous days cold southerlies,with overnightminimums including -4C in TurangiandTaumaranui,-3CinTeKuiti(anewMayrecord),-2CinRotorua,0CinNewPlymouth,and1CinWhangarei.25thand27th-FogaffectsAuckland,causingdisruptionatAucklandAirportonbothmornings.

29th-BlackicemakesroadshazardousinmanypartsofOtagoandtheMacken-zie Country. Freezing fog around Dunedin, causing disruption at the airport.Heavyraincauses loodinginWesternBayofPlenty,especiallyaroundTaurangaandWaihi.

MAJOREVENTS7th-13thMarch-Veryheavyrainand loodinginmanyNorthIslandareasHeavyrain fell inmanyNorth Islandareasduring thisperiod,mostnotably inthreespellswithparticularlyintensefallsinnorthernareas.Thesespellsoftor-

rentialdownpoursresultedinsevere loodinganddisruptiontotheareasaffect-ed.AslowmovingdepressionremainedintheNorthTasmanSeaduringmostofthisperiod,withdisturbancesinthemoistaironit'seasternsidebringingtheheavy

rain.Thecomplexlowhadalreadypositioned itselfintheNorthTasmanonthe7th,withfrontsonitseasternedgebringingheavyraintothefarnorth.Meanwhile,acold front crossed the South Islandwith a colder southerly change bringing ashortperiodofrain,andfreshsnowonthemountains.

Overnight7th/8th,thesoutherncoldfrontmovedontotheNorthIsland,result-ing in a clash betweenwarmnortherly and cool southeasterly airmasses overthenorthoftheisland.Thisintensi iedtherainevenfurther,withaparticularlyintensepatchofrainaffectingsoutheasternpartsoftheAucklandregion,Wai-

hekeIsland,andCoromandelPeninsula.Thisresultedinsevere loodingintheseareas, especially as the rain fell in a short period of time. Farmlands aroundClevedon were inundated with loodwaters, causing signi icant stock losses,whilenearly200 school childrenhad toevacuated froma camp in theHunuaRanges,andakindergartenwasalmostdestroyedbyacreek loodinginnearby


KawakawaBay.TheCoromandelPeninsulawascompletelycut-off,withslipsandloodingclosingallaccessroadsforatime.

Heavyrainalsocausedsome loodinginNorthland,whileeasttonortheastgalesaddedtothedisruptioninnorthernareas,fellingseveraltrees.Theadditionofcoolairandcloudcoversuppresseddaytimemaximumtemperatures,whichon-lyreachedthemidteensintheWaikatoandBayofPlenty.Whakatane(15C)andPortTaharoa(16C)recordedtheirlowestMarchhighsonrecord.Bycontrast,the

warm,humidairpersistedinthefarnorth,withKaikohereaching26C.Onthe8th/9th,amoistnortheasterly lowcoverednorthernandcentralareasasthelowreaminedslowmovingintheNorthTasman.Furtherrainaffectednorth-ernareas,withsomeheavyfallsineasternNorthland.(causing loodingaround

Kerikeri) Thunderstorms also affected eastern Northland in the unstable air,withreportsofover100cloud-to-groundstrikesinone iveminuteperiod.Moreactivedisturbances in thenortheasterly lowaffectednorthernareasonthe10th/11th,with rain re-intensifyingover the upperNorth Island.With theground already saturated,more looding was inevitable. Northland and Auck-

land were especially hard hit. High totals on the 10th included 107mm atWhatawwhata (nearHamilton),104mm inKaitaia,100mm inMangere (a newMarchrecord),and98mminRotorua.Meanwhile,ridgingovertheSouthIslandmeantsettledweatherforthegreater

partoftheislandfromthe8th-10th.The8thbeganwithcoldtemperaturesandsomefrostsinthewakeofthepreviousday'scoldsoutherly,eg-1Cminimumrec-ordedatPukaki.However,bythe11th,pressuresloweredfromthenorth,withasecondarylowtotheeastofCanterbury.Rainsetinfromthenorthlaterintheday,andpersistedthroughtotheendofthe13th.Unlikeinnorthernareas,the

rainwasn'theavyenoughtocauseanysigni icantproblems-infactitwaswel-comeintheareas,asithadbeendryforalongtime.Meanwhile,athirddamagingraineventaffectednorthernareasonthe12th.ThemainlowpressuresystemhadnowmovedsoutheastoverNZ,withanunstable

westerly low developing over northern areas. Thunderstorms resulted, withparticularlyintensedownpoursdrenchingmanypartsofAuckland.Theseresult-ed in lash looding,withthe suburbofNewLynnworstaffected -peopleweretrappedintheircarsandinshopsdueto loodwaters.Elsewhere,slipsand lood-ingcausedproblemsinRotoruaandGisborne.

Onthe13th,themainlowhadmovedtothesoutheastoftheSouthIsland,withasoutherlyoverthatisland,andsouthwesterliesovertheNorthIsland.Apartfromcontinuing rain about Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast, theweather easedovermostofthecountry.


Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZDT 7th March to midday NZDT 13th March

in 12 hour steps are shown here.

3rd-6th April - Storm including renmants of Cyclone Debbie brings heavy rain

and looding to many areas

After causing much damage to coastal Queensland, the remnants of Cyclone Deb-

bie moved into the Tasman Sea during the irst few days of April. On the 3rd, a

moist northeasterly low developed in the far north of NZ, while a trough and

fronts crossed southern and central areas, bringing a change to cool southerlies.

These systems combined, slowing the movement of the southern systems.

The low moved towards Northland on the 4th, while a high became positioned to

the southeast of the South Island. A front became slow moving over the Waikato/

Bay of Plenty, with warm, moist air in a northerly low to the north clashing with

cooler easterlies to the south. This resulted in very heavy rain developing over

many northern and central areas of the North Island. Slips and looding resulted

for many areas, with a mud slip crashing into an apartment building in Kohim-

arama, Auckland. A state of emergency was declared in the Rangitikei and Whan-

ganui districts, with the Whanganui River reaching lood levels. Many new rec-

ord high totals for April were recorded, including 182mm in Te Puke, 172mm at

Whangaparaoa, 161mm in Whitianga, 137mm in Warkworth, Rotorua and Wha-

katane, 111mm in Auckland (North Shore), 84mm at Takapau Plains, and 64mm

in Waiouru.

Also notable during the 3rd-5th were the unusually high minimums recorded in

many places, due to cloud cover and the warm northeasterly low. Several new

April records were broken in the upper North Island, including 21C in Kerikeri

(5th), 20C in Whangarei (4th), 19C at Cape Reinga (3rd), and 17C at Mahia. (3rd)


Daytimemaximumswerealsoveryhighinsomeplacesonthe3rd,withRoto-ruarecordinganewrecordhighAprilmaximumof25C.

During the5th, the lowmoveddown thewest coastof theNorth Island,withfurtherfrontscrossingover.Heavyraincontinuedovermostoftheislandwithwidespread looding and slips. Homes were evacuated in Whanganui,Taneatua,andOwhiro.(nearWellington)IntheAucklandregion, loodingandslipscausedmoreproblems,manyplacesseeingarepeatofthedamagewhich

occurredintheMarchrainstorms.HeavyrainalsoaffectedCanterburyandtheKaikouraCoast,with122mmrecordedinAkaroa.Duringthe6th,thelowmovedsoutheasttolietotheeastoftheSouthIslandbytheendof theday,with persistent rain continuingaboutCanterburyand the

KaikouraCoast.TheOkukuRiver inNorthCanterbury looded (devastatingapiggery),slipsblockedaccessintoKaikourafrombothSH70andSH1,andtheAvon and Heathcoate Rivers over lowed in Christchurch. Temperatures re-mainedcoldsincethe3rd,withsnowonthemountains,whichbecameheavieronthe5th/6th-upto50cmrecordedonMtHutt.Therainandsnoweasedatnight.

OvertheNorthIsland,conditionseasedasthe lowturnedwesterly.However,loodwaterspeakedintheRangataikiRiverintheBayofPlentyinthemorning,Theriverconsequentlybreachedastop-bankbyEdgecumbe,andquickly lood-edmuchofthetown,forcingtheevacuationofallitsresidents.The loodwater

wereashighas1.5m,inundatingmanyhomes.


Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 3rd April to midday NZST 6th April in

12 hour steps are shown here.

11th-14th April - Yet another storm brings heavy rain and looding, with ex-tropical Cyclone Cook also bringing severe gales

A low moved into the mid Tasman Sea on the 11th, with a moist northerly low

developing over NZ. Heavy rain warnings were issued for several areas, especial-

ly since the ground was still saturated from other recent rain events. Rain devel-

oped later in the day in the west of the South Island, and set in over the North Is-

land during the 12th. High totals included 134mm in Kerikeri, 111mm in North

Shore, Auckland (a new April record), 88mm in Matamata, and 56mm in Dune-

din.

Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Cook formed near New Caledonia and moved south

into sub-tropical waters and weakened. However, it deepened again as it moved

south towards northern NZ on the 12th. Warnings were issued for damaging

winds and torrential rain in the areas where it was predicted to cross. (most of

the North Island and the east of South Island) These warnings emphasised that

this could easily be the most powerful/deepest such storm to affect NZ since

1968's Cyclone Giselle/Wahine Storm.

What eventuated was not as severe as predicted, but Cook still packed a punch. It

made landfall in the eastern Bay of Plenty during the evening of the 13th, sweep-

ing southwards to lies east of the South island the next day. Heavy rain and gales

lashed areas from the Coromandel Peninsula, down through the central and

eastern North Island, and Marlborough and Canterbury. The fast moving nature

of the storm minimised the impact of the heavy rain, although there was looding

in parts of Canterbury. (including the Avon and Heathcoate Rivers in Christ-


church)Therebuilt stop-banksinEdgecumbe fortunatelyheldup.Muchofthedamageofduetoseveregales.TheBayofPlenty,Gisborne,andHawkesBaywerehardest hit, with winds felling trees and power-lines. Several roads were

blocked,whilesome13,000homesinHawkesBaywerewithoutpower,and12celltowerswereknockeddowninthesethreeareas.HighgustsbrokeAprilrecordsinWhakatane(117km/hr),Motu(111km/hr),andTePuke(67km/hr),whileothergustsreached100km/hrinNapier,89km/hr inGisborne,and87km/hrinTauranga.Aswellthewinds,highseaslashed

exposedcoastlines,withwavesupto6mreportedintheBayofPlenty.Bycontrast,thecompactnatureofthestormmeantthatitsimpactaffectedrela-tivelylimitedarea.Manyotherareas(includingAuckland)werewarnedofthecyclone'simpendingarrival,butwerefortunatelyspared.

ThestormmovedawaytothesoutheastoftheSouthIslandduringthe14th,withtheremainingheavyrainandcoastalgaleseasingintheeastoftheSouthIsland.


Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 11th April to midday NZST 14th April

in 12 hour steps are shown here.

MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH: AUTUMN 2017

MARCH

A number of lows and troughs crossed over this month, with onshore lows re-

sulting in cloudier and signi icantly wetter than normal conditions. However,

much of the rainfall total was due to a prolonged wet period from the 11th to

early on the 14th. Temperatures were normal, with warmer nights and cooler

days. However, there were some very warm days early in the month, while in

contrast the 7th was a cold day with southerlies bringing snow to the Alps, and

the wet spell from the 11th-14th also resulted in unusually low daytime temper-

atures.

APRIL

This was another very wet and cloudy month, with two periods - 3rd-6th and

12th-14th bringing much of the month's rain. Light rain and drizzle fell on the

3rd/4th, but the rain became heavier and persistent on the 5th and persisted

through the 6th, when it was accompanied by strong southerly winds. (gale

about Banks Peninsula) The Avon and Heathcoate Rivers over lowed in their

lower reaches. Temperature were cold, with heavy snow falling on the Alps.

Heavy rain again fell overnight 12th/13th, and then ex-tropical cyclone Cook

swept south overnight 13th/14th, with more heavy falls during the morning of

the 14th.

The remainder of the month was more settled, with only some weaker systems

crossing over. However, during the 30th, a strong, cold southerly change brought

a period of rain, with more snow on the mountains. Temperatures for month

overall, however, were slightly milder than normal, with many cold days, but

warmer than usual nights due to more cloudiness.

MAY

In contrast to the previous two months, May was colder and drier than normal,

with more southerlies, but without signi icant rain events of March and April.

The most notable weather was from the 18th-21st, when a cold, disturbed south-

westerly low prevailed. The irst cold front struck the city during the evening of

the 18th, with a period of southerly gales and rain, plus sleet and snow lurries

to the Port Hills (not settling) and upper plains. A second front brought more

cold and rain the next evening, with the Port Hills sporting a dusting of snow

above about 400m by the morning of the 20th.


Plansfor$25,000weatherstationinPictoncouldprogressMetServiceambitions1March2017ELENAMCPHEETheMarlboroughExpress

DEREK FLYNN/FAIRFAX NZ

Picton and Marlborough

Sounds Tourism Group

members John Reuhman,

left, and Helen Neighbour-

Cone think a weather sta-

tion is the irst step to put-

tingPictononthemap.

ApushtoputPictononthenational weather map hastakenastepintherightdi-rection, with a $25,000weatherstationmootedforthetownship.Residentshavebeenwork-ing on their weather sta-

tionplansincethemiddleoflastyear,arequirementforPictontofeatureontheMetService'sweathermapandthenationalnews.Blenheim,WellingtonandNelsonaremarkedontheMetServicemap,butareclimaticallydif-ferent to Picton and the Marlborough Sounds, with Picton having about double Blenheim'srainfall.Tourism group interim chairwoman MargaretMcHughsaidNorwegian weather website,yr.no,showed four Marlborough centres, Blenheim, Renwick, Havelock and Picton, so shethoughtNewZealandmediaoutletsshouldrecognisePictonwithitsownweather.Ifadded,PictonwouldnotbethesmallesttownontheMetServicemap.Reefton,withapopu-lationofabout1000,wasincluded.http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89900128/plans-for-25000-weather-station-in-picton-could-progress-metservice-ambitions

AstonishingimagesofmonsterwavecrashingintoSydneyferryincatastrophicweather

Mar7,2017

HAIGGILCHRIST

This huge wall of water was photo-graphed just before it crashed into theside of a Sydney ferry.Amateurphotog-rapherHaigGilchrist took the astonish-ingimageastheferrybattledthroughastormnearSydneyHarbour.Sharingtheimage on Instagram, Mr Gilchrist cap-tionedtheshot“EastCoast,Lowintensi-fying” with thousands of people likingthesnap.MrGilchristwasworkingasaboathand

ontheManlyFerryovertheweekendwhenthesehorrendousconditionsstruck.http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/776157/sydney-monster-wave-haig-gilchrist-australia-storm-ferry-harbour


Poweroutagesasheavyrainhitsnorthofthecountry8March2017HENRYCOOKE

JOHN SELKIRK/FAIRFAX NZ Localised thun-

derstorms could hit south Auckland.

Just over700properties arewithoutpowerinAucklandaswildweatherstartstohit thetopofthecountry.MetService expectedvery heavy rain to hitareas fromNorthlanddown to theTaranakiandthenorthernBayofPlentyoverTuesdayeveningandWednesdaymorning.Waikato, Coromandel, and theBayof Plentyareexpectedtobehitthehardest,withupto130mmofraininthe12hoursovernight.Rainfall expected over Tuesday night. Credit:

MetService.http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90163760/heavy-rain-to-hit-north-of-the-country-thunderstorms-possible

HeavyrainforecastforCycloneBolaanniver-sary

8Mar,2017FLASHBACK: The Wairoa river after the de-

struction of the town bridge in Cycloine Bola

in March 1988. Heavy rain is forecast over the

next few days, the 29th anniversary of the cy-

clone. PHOTO/FILE HawkesBayToday

Heavy rain is still being forecast forHawke'sBaythisweek,the29thanniversaryofCycloneBolawhichhittheregiononMarch6-8,1988.ThefamedcyclonewashedawaytheWairoatownbridge,closedtheNapier-Wairoaroadformorethan a week, and throughout the North Island cost three lives, with rainfall peaking in theHawke'sBay-Gisborneregionwiththree-dayrainfallinsomeplacesover900mm.Abridged.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462&objectid=11813642


ExpecttheunexpectedasweatherwreakshavocacrossthetopoftheNorthIsland8March2017JASONDORDAY/Stuff.co.nz

JASON DORDAY/FAIRFAX NZ

Aerial imagery illustrates the

extent of lood damage in

Clevedon.

The unstable weather pat-ternthatwillstretchuntiltheweekend is like an"unpredictable spinning top"says Metservice meteorolo-gistTomAdams.The front had taken its tollonthetopoftheNorthIslandon Wednesday dumping amonth'sworthofraininplac-

eswiththedelugecausing loodinginpartsoftheWaikatoandAuckland,slipsclosedroadstothe Coromandel andcutpower to hundreds ofhomes.AUCKLAND COUNCIL Flooding

at Hunua Ranges Regional

Park.

The deluge has alreadycaused lash looding acrossparts of Waikato and Auck-land, closing roadsandcutting off the Coroman-del Peninsulafor a time,causing slips and cutting

powertohundredsofhomes.MetServicesaidburstsofheavyrainacrossnorthernNewZea-landwerepossible through toFriday andissued a severe thunderstormwarning forNorth-land. At least 200 children from Stanley Bay School wereevacuatedfrom theYMCA'sCampAdairintheHunuaRanges,duetotheheavydownpours.http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90174663/ looding-slips-and-more-heavy-rain-slam-top-of-

the-country

SH25 at Kopu partially reopens aswildweathercontinuesto lashCor-omandelPeninsula

8Mar,2017NZHeraldLooking out over Thames. Photo/

Supplied

AkeyroadleadingtotheCoroman-del Peninsula has partially openedthisafternoonasthedistrictexperi-encesitsworst loodingin10years.


TheKarangahakeGorgebetweenWaihi toPaeroa,whichwasbrie ly closed after a blockedculvertbeganto lood,isnowopen.Driversshouldcontinuetotakeextracare.Thames-CoromandelMayorSandraGoudiesaiditwastheworst loodingthedistricthasex-periencedin10years.Abridgedhttp://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11814036Thunderstorms,heavyraincausepowercuts,evacuationsinAucklandandNorthlandNICOLELAWTONANDHANNAHMARTIN10March2017PartsofAucklandandNorthlandwereunderwateronFridaynightastorrentialrainbatteredtheupperNorthIsland.MetService had issued severe weather warnings for the top of the country and was urgingpeopletobeon"highalert"asthestormdubbedtheTasmanTempestmovedbackin.

SUPPLIED/LEAHGOLDMANKids used the Kerikeri SkateBowl as a swimming pool onFridayafternoon.WeatherWatch alsoissued alood alert for Auckland asaband of tropical downpoursmovedsouth.In Auckland, hundredsofhomeswerein thedark aswet weather caused powerpolestospark.Trainservicesacross the Eastern and One-hungalineswererunningata

reduced frequency Northern ire communications shift manager Megan Ruru said the FireServicewasrespondingto"multiple loodincidents"throughoutAuckland.Mostofthoseinvolved loodedbasements,shesaid.

BAYLEYMOOR/FAIRFAXNZThe

normally peaceful Rainbow

Falls (Waianiwaniwa) near

Kerikeri was a torrent on Fri-

day morning after heavy rain-

fallovernight.

MeteorologistLisaMurraysaidheavy rain and thunderstormswould continue overnight onFridayandintotheweekend."Thegroundisalreadysaturat-ed somorewaterwill just runoff when it lands."Peopleshould de initely be on highalert."

"Localiseddownpours arepossible anywhere in theregion fromFriday and throughout theweekend,withthehighestrisktimesexpectedtobeFridaynightandintoSaturdaymorning."http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90280790/looming-bad-weather-in-the-north-could-be-worse-than-earlier-storm---civil-defence


TheTasmantempestisn'toveryet:Morerain,upto140mm,possibleinsoakedupper-NorthIsland10March2017

Hundreds of people arewithout power as North-land, Coromandel and Bayof Plenty stare down thebarrel of another soppingwetday.MetService has issuedheavyrainwarningsfortheareas in the upper-NorthIsland through to Saturday,as well as for northwestNelson.JENNYLING/FAIRFAXNZ

The Kerikeri River was rag-

ing in torrential rain in

Northland on Thursday

evening.

METSERVICE The red crosses

show the cluster of lightning

strikes to hit the North Island

in the 12 hours to 3pm on

Thursday.

"Today we'll have to wait andsee what mother naturethrowsatus."MetService Meteorologist Pe-terLittlesaidtheweathersitu-ationwasn'tshowinganysignsof changing during the nextfew days, withmore bands ofheavyrainandthunderstorms

forecastfornorthernNZhttp://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90270960/the-tasman-tempest-isnt-over-yet-more-rain-up-to-200mm-possible-in-soaked-uppernorth-island

MetraWeather and MetService Have Launched the Airport Weather Matrix

Source:MetraWeatherMar10,2017

Photo credit: MetraWeather MetraWeather and Met-

ServicehavelaunchedtheAirportWeatherMatrix.

Thematrixprovidesaconsistent,shared,singlepointofweatherguidanceto:AirlinesAirportoperatorsAirtraf iccontrollersAirport services including emergency services, fueloperations, freight operators, and those agencies re-sponsible for infrastructure assets, communications,


buildingservicesandworksAirforce&militaryaviationThematrixcomplementstheSystemWideInformationManagement(SWIM)andAirportCol-laborative Decision Making (A-CDM) programmes used by airlines, airports and air traf iccontrollersto improveoperationaldecision-makingbothwithin,andbeyond,theparameterfence.Weather,andparticularlysevereweather,cansigni icantlyimpactairlinesandairportoperations. Collaborative action about weather events promises improved service deliveryandcostef iciencies.Abridgedhttp://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/12314461/metraweather-and-metservice-have-launched-the-airport-weather-matrix

Big cleanup follows deluge

12March2017Thebigcleanuphasbegunaftera lash loodrippedthroughWestAuckland.AheavydownpourbatteredAucklandonSunday,dropping65mmofrainonthewestofthecity in just onehour at aboutmidday, causing lash- looding and inundatingmore than320homesthroughoutthecity,someofthemwaist-deep.

TheFireServicereceivednearly600emergencycallssince6am,averagingacallevery24seconds.Photo:RNZ/ClaireEastham-FarrellyThe Fell-Coates family in Mount Al-bertwas among thosewhosehouseshad looded.ABunningsWarehouse inNewLynnhad to be evacuated and was thenclosedbecauseof looding.Powerwasouttonearly4000homesthroughoutAucklandduringtheday.MetServicesaidatroughcrossedcen-tral New Zealand, while a separatelow moved south-east across the

northernNorthIsland.The weather has caused slips andsurface loodinginWellingtontoo.Flooding inNewLynn. Photo:RNZ /ClaireEastham-Farrellyhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/326404/big-cleanup-follows-deluge

As it happened: More than 300 homes flooded, power restored

12Mar,2017• 321 propertieshave been looded(225 in West Auckland), with someinwaist-deepwater• People are being advised to avoid

NewLynnduetotheriskofunstablebuildings


Stormy weather thisweek broke recordrain levels, causedwidespread lood-ing, slips, blockedroads and tore signsoff buildings, dam-aged power linesand drowned live-stock.MetService meteor-ologist April Clarkdescribedtherecentdrenching as an ex-ceptionalevent."Theyareexception-

alstatisticalfacts.Theydohappen,butnotthatoften."http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11816698

More rain than Cyclone Bola

14March2017SIMONSMITHEvery day Albert Chan, 70, monitors the weather in west Auckland. At

the weekend he took some exceptional readings.

SIMON SMITH/FAIRFAX NZ Chan

with his cylinder for measuring

rain, and his thermometer screen.

Albert takes daily readings ofmaximum and minimum temper-atures and also the grass mini-mum, just incase there's anyfrost. He also record the dailyrainfall. All measurements at9am, not midnight likethe cur-rent computer stations. He alsomeasures the humidity at thattime. He connects with the NIWAweather network, along with

morethan300otherobserversaroundthecountry,mostarevolunteers.There'squitea fewstations in west Auckland, but theyarenotallNIWAones.

SIMON SMITH/FAIRFAX NZ The

weather station's rain gauge.

March 11-12 was very wet, with lo-calisedheavy falls in some suburbs,mainlyinwestAuckland.OnSunday,Albert had 61.6 millimetres, andmost of it fell from10.30am tomid-day.Butinthe24-hourperiodtoSat-urday morning,he recorded105.8mm of rainfall. His previous


recordforMarchwasin1988,whenherecorded85.7mm.ThatwouldhavebeenCycloneBo-la.Albert started measuring weather on his current property in 1974, although he missed a

monthback in June 2008 be-cause of a trip overseas. Beforethen Iwasdoing it from1962 to1968 at his Mum's place beforehewent latting.Ittakesnomorethan 10 minutes every morning.He built his house here becausehe knew that in this valley innorth Henderson he'd get ex-tremetemperatures.

SIMON SMITH/FAIRFAX NZ Albert

Chan records his daily readings in

his ield book.

Weather changes: The summertemperatureisnotashighas itusedtobe.Wearenowstrugglingtoget28degreesplus, inthelast iveyears.Inwinter,weseemtobegettinglessfrost,it'snotsosevere.Weseemtobegettingamoremoderateclimate.Extremes: Highest daily rainfall was 114.4mm inDecember1988. Wettest month was July1998whenIrecorded380.3mm.Thedriestmonthwas5.2mminFebruary2007.Highesttem-peraturewas33.1degrees in February1998whenwehad10days of 30degreesplus. Thecoldestwasminus5degrees inJuly1982.Theheaviest frostwasminus8.9degrees in June1994.

Albert says that measuringweather started off as a hobbyback when he was at school. “Iused to go down to the weatherof ice inMechanics Bay andthat's what got me interested. Ialso used to draw the weathermapsfortheNewZealandHeraldback then. Every time there's abigdownpourIliketoknowhowmuchrainfell inashortamountoftime. You never know whatyouaregoingtoget.”

SIMONSMITH/FAIRFAXNZ Chan's data showsheavy rainfall readings onMarch11 and12,2017.http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/western-leader/90422960/more-rain-than-cyclone-bola

What a beast! Weekend downpour brings Auckland's wettest March in 58 years

Tue,Mar14WhenpowerfulweathersystemtheTasmanTempesthammeredAucklandandcaused lashloodingacrossthecity,somepeoplemighthaveassumeditwouldbreaksomerecords.fact, thesystemwassointense, theCityofSailsonFridayrecordeditswettestMarchdayonrecordsince1959.About100mmfellbetween9amonFridayand9amonSaturdayinAuck-land,accordingtoNIWA.ItwasalsothethirdwettestautumndayonrecordinAuckland.


The 225mm of rain that fell in theUpper Hunua ranges on Tuesdaynight exceeded a one in 100-yearevent, according to NIWA's high in-tensity rainfall system. Aucklandtied its wettest March hour on rec-ordwith27.6mmbetween5pmand6pmonFriday sincehourly recordsbeganin1965.SourceNIWA

NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll sayswhileclimatechangedoesn’tcauseaweather event, climate change cer-

tainly in luencethese events,sincethe atmosphereisnowwarmerandmoisterthaninthepast. Climate change increases the likelihood of extreme rainfall, given the appropriateweatherset-up,"MrNollsays."Researchsuggeststhattherewillbeuptoeightpercentmoreintenserainforevery1Cofwarming."FromTuesday lastweek to Sunday,Whangamata recorded475mmofrainfall; thehighesttotalatanyonelocationfromtheTasmanTempest.https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-beast-weekend-downpour-brings-aucklands-wettest-march-in-58-years

NZTA signs road-weather contract with MetService

Tuesday,21March2017,PressRelease:NewZealandTransportAgencyFrom 1 May 2017, NZ Transport

Agency commences a new ive-year

road-weather data and data visuali-

sation service with the Meteorologi-

cal Service of New Zealand

(MetService).

MetService is contracting specialistroad-weather vendor, Foreca Ltd toprovide high-resolution road-weather forecasts which are based

on MetService’s own forecasting services and a host of additional weather and road infor-mation.TheserviceswillprovideMetServiceroad-weatherforecasterswithconsiderablyenhanced,year-round, high-resolution insights into the weather conditions across the New ZealandStateHighwayroadnetwork.TheservicesfuseMetServiceobservationsfromitsnetworkofautomated roadside weather stations and expanding mobile measurement platforms with360°photographs,high-resolutiontopography,roadmetadataandroadmodelling.PeterFisher,BusinessDevelopmentManager,KeyAccountsforMetServicesaysthenewser-vicespromisetofurtherenhancethequalityofdecision-supportprovidedbyMetService.“It’snotjustaboutwinterweather.TheweatherinNewZealandcanimpactthesafetyofroadusersatanytimeofyear.”Abridgedhttp://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1703/S00651/nzta-signs-road-weather-contract-with-metservice.htm


World Meteorological Day 2017: Understanding Clouds

23March2017byMetServicecommunicationsmeteorologistLisaMurray

Eachyearmeteorologistsaroundtheworldcelebrateachosenthemetocommemoratethean-niversary of the founding of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the 23rdofMarchin1950.“UnderstandingClouds”isthethemeofWorldMeteorologicalDaythisyear,tohighlighttheenormousimportanceofcloudsforweatherclimateandwater.

Italsomarksthelaunchof the new edi-tionInternational CloudAtlas,thesingleauthori-tativeandmostcompre-hensive reference foridentifying clouds and atreasure trove of hun-dreds of images ofclouds, including a fewnewly-classi ied cloudtypes!To celebrate World Me-teorologicalDayhere inNew Zealand, Met-Service is showcasing acollection of cloud pho-tos, taken by New Zea-landers, inourwebsite'sSocial Media Gallery.

Tag your photo with #WMDNZ on In-stagramorTwitterandyoucouldjointhem!Clouds are central to weather obser-vationsandforecasts.Theyareoneofthe key uncertainties in the study ofclimate change. Clouds play a criticalrole in the water cycle and shapingthe global distribution of water re-sources.CloudEnvyHereinNewZealand,TheLandoftheLongWhite Cloud,wehave some fan-tasticcloudstolookat.Gumboot shaped Lenticular cloud, Mt

Ruapehu,S.Clubb2012There are many more fascinatingblogsaboutcloudsandotherweathergoodness here atblog.metservice.com, so do take alook. Our Learning Centre also has acool Cloud Poster (PDF) which givessome great examples of the more

commonclouds you might see around New Zealand. And each year, MetService works with


Potton Publishing to produce the New Zealand Weather Calendar - also a great source ofcloudphotos!Youcan indthecalendaronsaleatallgoodbookshops.HaveagreatWorldMeteorologicalDay2017,anddon’tforgettolookupatthesky!http://blog.metservice.com/world-met-day-2017

Power restored to nearly 2000 homes as rain lashes Auckland

26Mar,2017NZHeraldElectricity was cut to nearly 1800 homes in the north and west of the city last night.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11825968Hello,Goodbye:Adelerocksaponchoforher inalNZconcert

27MarchCRAIGHOYLETONY FERNANDES / INSTAGRAM Adele

brushedofftheraintobeltouthitafterhit.

Adele laughed off the rain as she delight-edfanswithher inal concert inAucklandon Sunday evening. The superstar ex-pressed light-hearted concern as she tookto the stage at Mt Smart Stadium amid adownpour."Youpoorthings,"shesaid."It'sreallyraining,isn'tit?"http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90859417/Hello-Goodbye-Last-Adele-concert-could-be-a-washout

Drought tool launched

Monday,27March2017NIWA's latest drought index map. These

mapsareupdateddaily.

In the wake of a hot, dry Hawke’s Baysummer the National Institute of Waterand Atmospheric Research has launchedaone-stopdroughtmonitoringtool.Called the New ZealandDrought Index aNIWAspokespersonsays it is aneasy-to-use, colour coded map that de ines thescienti ically observed drought status ofeveryNewZealanddistrict.“TheNZDIismodelledonsimilarindexesused around the world, displaying thedrynessofeachdistrictin ivecategories:dry,verydry,extremelydry,droughtandseveredrought,”theysay.“Each category is colour coded from yel-

lowfordry, throughtodarkredforseveredrought.“NIWAhasdevelopedtheindexincon-junctionwiththeMinistryforPrimaryIndustriesoverthepasttwoyears.”ThespokespersonsaysthenewindexwillbeusedbyMPIasoneofthecriteria,alongsidethewiderimpactonthe rural community, to determine whether a drought is a medium or large scale adverseevent.“MPIdoesnotdeclaredrought, inthesamewayitdoesnotdeclareastormor lood,”theysay“Alltheseeventsarecalledadverseeventsandaresubjecttoaclassi icationsystem.“The Minister for Primary Industries then decides what support and recovery measuresshouldbemadeavailable.”NIWAclimatescientistDrAndrewTaitsaystheindexisbasedonthemostup-to-datescience


andtheinformationisautomaticallyupdateddaily.“WewouldlikethisinitiativetobeseenasthepremierindexfordroughtinNewZealand,”hesays. "It is a climate data-based indicator based on four commonly-used climatologicaldroughtindicators.”Theseare:thestandardisedprecipitationindex,thesoilmoisturede icit,thesoilmoisturede icitanomaly,andthepotentialevapotranspirationde icit.“Theindexispresentedasamapandascharts,enablingpeopletoselectdistrictsandclimato-logicalindicatorstokeeptrackofparticularareas,”saysTait.“This is a useful tool for farmers, irrigators, regional councils, water managers and anyonewhoneeds toknowaboutdry conditions. They can rely on the sciencebehind the index tomonitorwhatishappeningintheirarea.“ItistheplacetogolookatcurrentdroughtindicatorsaroundNewZealand.”TheNIWAspokespersonsayswhilethemapcoversthewholeofNewZealand,thechartshavetheabilityforpeopletoseekmoreinformationaboutaparticulardistrict.“Itissearchablebydateandanycombinationofthedroughtindicators,”theysay.The NZDI can be accessed at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/drought-monitorhttps://www.newscollective.co.nz/news-collective/item/408-drought-tool-launched.htmlWorkingbeeonRaoulunderlinesKermadecs'importance28March2017TheNewZealandDepartmentofConservation'soutgoingseniorrangerforRaoulIslandsaystheKermadecsremainsanoutpostofgreatimportancetothecountry.

Aftersixyearsintherole,PaulRen-nie is being replaced by Irene Mid-dletonwho travelledup to theKer-madecslastweekwithamajormulti-agencyworkmission.HostelComplexonRaoulIslandPho-

to:NathanLightbourne

MrRenniesaidtheKermadecswasajewel in the country's conservationnetwork, but added that itwas alsoa critical asset for the MetserviceandGNSScience."Obviously we're in a South Paci icarea where we're getting tsunamisnot a regular basis, but they're a

happeningthing,"MrRenniesaid."So being able to warn people Ithink is critical. And the same goesfor the weather up there, with cy-clones."DOChassevenstaffontheislandatany one time. Four of them are onfor 12 months and the other threerotateoutonathreemonthlybasis.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/

paci ic/327659/working-bee-on-raoul

-underlines-kermadecs'-importance


Debbie'sremainsdon'tlooklikeacycloneanymore,butit'sstillnasty1April2017

METSERVICE The rem-

nantsofCycloneDebbie

offtheeastcoastofAus-

tralia on Saturday

morning. A second low

to the southis expected

to miss the bottom of

theSouthIsland.

TheremainsofTropical

CycloneDebbiemaynot

looksoscaryanymore,

but they could still

bring strongwinds and

heavy rain when they

reachNewZealandear-

lynextweek.

"Asyoucanseeitdoesn'tlookanythinglikeatropicalcycloneanymore.That'sbecauseithastransformedintoacompletelydifferenttypeofweathersystem,"MetServicesaidinaFace-bookpost."However,onecharacteristicofthelowthatremainssimilartoDebbie,istheveryhumidairthatithasbroughtdownfromthetropicscontaininglotsofmoisture.The lower North Island and upper South Island are set to receive thebrunt of the down-pours."AnewlowdevelopingfromtheseremnantshasthepotentialtobringheavyrainandstrongwindstomanypartsofNewZealandfromTuesdaytoThursday."Thehighestrainfallaccumulationsarelikelytobeinthecentral/lowerNorthIslandandup-perSouthIslandbuteverywherehasthepotentialtoseeheavyrainatsomepoint."Soforthosewholiketogetoutdoors,Saturdaycouldbeasgoodasitgetsforawhile.BySun-daythingsarestartingtodeteriorate,andthingskeepgoingdownhillforseveralmoredays.CycloneDebbiehasbroughtdeath,destructionandwidespread loodingtoeasternAustral-iaafter irst smashingits way ashore as a category 4 event in the Whitsunday Islands onTuesday,withwindsgustingto263kmh.http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/91097519/Fine-start-to-the-weekend-before-dwindling-Cyclone-Debbie-brings-deluges-possible- looding

Severeweather:Schoolchildrenstranded,homescutoff

5April2017Flooding and slips have trapped resi-dents and schoolchildren as torrentialrain sweeps across the central and up-perNorthIsland.A slip on Landing Road in Titirangi has

trapped 16 residents in ive houses. All

theresidentsaresafe,AucklandCivilDe-

fence says. Photo: Twitter /

@AucklandCDEM


Heavyrainhascausedlandslips,closedroads,closeddozensofschoolsandforcedtheevacua-tionofabout200homesinWhanganui.MetServicewarnedofheavydownpoursforthecentralNorthIslanduntil theearlyhoursoftomorrow.MeterologistGeorginaGrif ithssaidGreatBarrierIsland,Coromandel,BayofPlenty,RotoruaandTaupoweremostatrisk.ShesaidmostrainoverotherpartsoftheNorthIslandshouldeasetonight.AlargebandofheavyrainwasmovingsouthandwouldaffectWellington,whilethetopoftheSouth Islandwas expected tohave veryheavydownfalls ovenight and early tomorrow, shesaid.http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/328199/severe-weather-schoolchildren-stranded,-homes-cut-offFlightssuspendedinWellington5Apr,2017PlanesaregroundedatWellingtonAirporttonightandarriving lightsarebeingdivertedaswildweathercontinuestoplayhavoc.AtleasttwoWellington-boundinternational lightsarebeingsenttoAucklandandChristchurch.Tomorrowthemiddleofthecountryisinthe iringline,withtheWhanganuiRiveratPipiriki

forecast to peak 13.3 me-tresbymidnight; leadingtoevacuations from low-lyingareas this afternoon anddefence force personnelhelping prepare for lood-ing.A state of emergency hadearlierbeendeclaredintheWhanganui and Rangitikeidistricts.Auckland's been soaked bya month's worth of rain inthe past 24 hours, leavingnearly 20,000 homes with-out power this afternoon,and causing roads closuresand slips. Fire services hadresponded to 144 lood-

relatedcalloutsby5.30pm.Alandslidecrashedthroughablockof latsatKohimaramalastnight. Itwasoneofmanyaf-fectingresidentsacrossthecity inthelasttwodays-oneslipacrossLandingRdinTitirangihascutoffaccesstoadozenresidents.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/manawatu-guardian/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503567&objectid=11831972

'Exceptional'clusterof ivedownpourssaturatesupperNorthIsland-

5April2017MICHAELDALYJustweeksaftertheTasmanTempest,theHunuaFallsisaragingtorrentonceagainafteran-otherdelugehittheNorthIsland.A cluster of ive major downpours that hit the upper North Island in the past monthis"exceptional",saysameteorologistwhowarnedmoreheavyraincouldbeonthewaynextweek.


Niwa'sMarchclimatesummary,publishedonWednesday,saidthatduringtheso-calledTas-manTempest fromMarch7-12theupperNorthIslandhadthree"signi icantheavyrainfallevents".Thatraincausedmajor looding,slips,anddamagetohomesandinfrastructure."These events were caused by a very slow moving subtropical low pressure system in the

Tasman Sea ... whichwashaltedbyablock-inghigh pressure sys-tem to the south," theNiwasummarysaid."The clockwise move-mentofairaroundthelow pressure systemmeant that the airmasses originated inthe tropics and werethereforeverymoist."GLENBROOK SCHOOL

WaitangiFalls inGlen-

brook, in rural Auck-

land, at 7am on

Wednesdaymorning.

MetServicemeteorologistGeorginaGrif ithssaidthesignalnextweekisforfurtherrainfall.AblockinghighpressurewasagainexpectedtothesouthandeastofthecountrywithalowpressureagainprevailingoverthenorthTasmanSea.Aucklandhasbeenparticularlyhardhitbythe ivedownpourswithinamonth.LastmonthwasthewettestMarchonrecordforthecityandsurroundingareas.Abridged-Stuff

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/91221047/exceptional-cluster-of- ive-downpours-saturates-upper-north-island--more-likely-next-week

Slips,evacuationsinWgtnasstormheadssouth

6April2017SevereweatherhasforcedsomeWellingtonians to lee theirhomes, but MetService says theSouthIslandwillweartheworstofthestormfromhereonin.Houses in Newtown were evacu-

ated because of the slip. Photo:

RNZ/EdwardO'Driscoll

HeavyraininWellingtonyester-day - the largest in a single dayin the past year - caused land-slips and disrupted travel. Thecapital had 65mm of rain be-tween 4pm and 11pm. TwohousesonMillwardStreet,New-


town,were evacuatedwhena landslip camedownat thebackof theproperties, downing apowerpoleandrupturingagasmain.Heavyrainoverthepasttwodayscaused looding,slips,powercutsandroadclosuresintheNorthIsland.Almost 50 schools and21 early learningcentreswere closedbecauseof looding across theNorth Island.TheMinistry of Education said the closures affected almost 6000 students andmorethan700pre-schoolers.

ThreeschoolswereclosedinAuck-land, with many more closed inWaikato, Bay of Plenty, HawkesBay,TaranakiandWairarapa.K a i k ō u r a c u t o f f f o r t h e n i g h t

This slip onStateHighway1, south

of Kaikoura, came down in heavy

rain.Photo:NZTA

In the South Island, Kaikōurawouldbecutoff forthenight,withStateHighway1 southof the townclosedbecauseoflandslipsandthealternative inland route shut be-causeofheavyrain.

W h a n g a n u i a n d R a n g i t i k e i l i f t s t a t e s o f e m e r g e n c y

TheWhanganuiRiveratitspeakon

Thursday morning Photo: RNZ /

MarkBrimblecombe

Meanwhile, the threat of majorlooding receded in Whanganuiovernightastheriverlevelpeakedat about7.7m- far lower than thenearly10mpredicted.http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/328288/slips,-evacuations-in-wgtn-as-storm-heads-south

NewZealandtownshitby'oncein500-year lood'asstormsystemsweepsin

6April2017

State of emergencydeclared inparts ofNorth Island after riversburst banks amid extremewindsbroughtbytail-endofex-cycloneDebbieA“oncein500-year” loodisswallowinguplargepartsoftheeastcoastofNewZealand,asthetail-endofex-cycloneDebbiesweepseastafterdevastatinglargepartsofAustralia.StatesofemergencyhavebeendeclaredinnumerousregionsintheNorthIsland,afterriversbursttheirbanksfollowingtwodaysofheavyrainandgale-forcewinds.ThousandsofpeoplehavebeenevacuatedintheBayofPlenty,ontheeastcoastoftheNorthIsland,andwelfarecentresestablishedtofeedandhousethosewhosehomesarenowunder


water. The town of Edgecumbe appears to be the worst affected, with brown water up to two metres

high engul ing the town, after the

Rangitaiki river burst its banks on

Thursday morning.

Children being evacuated from

looded Edgecombe, New Zealand,

after ex-cyclone Debbie passed

through. Photograph: Tautini

Hahipen

Whakatane mayor Tony Bonne told

Radio New Zealand the lood was a

“once in 500-year” event. “There is

danger, with the huge volumes of

water coming down the river, we

have grave concerns for the town of

Edgecumbe,” he said. “This has all

happened really quickly ... there is

a wall of water going through Edge-

cumbe at the moment.”

Tractors, farm trucks and speed boats were being used to evacuate 2,000 residents from the

stricken town, as lood water rose so quickly normal vehicles were unable to get in or out.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/06/new-zealand-storm-ex-cyclone-debbie-

towns-hit-once-in-500-year- lood

Extreme weather a taste of climate effects

6 April 2017

This week's extreme weather is just a small taste of things to come as the intensity of storms

increases because of climate change, a scientist says.

WaikatoslipsaroundStateHigh-

way 22. Photo: Waikato District

Council

Victoria University climate sci-

entist Professor James Renwick

said heavy rain events like cy-

clone Debbie and last month's

'Tasman tempest', which

brought looding in Auckland,

had a clear human footprint.

The risk of seeing such storms

was increasing as time went on,

he said.

"It's not as though every time

there's a storm it's going to be

like this, or that there's going to

be torrential rain every month, but it's pushing the odds," Professor Renwick said.


When therewas a storm, itwasmorelikely to bringheavier rain than itwouldwithout cli-matechange,hesaid.Moremoistureintheairmeantmorerainfall."Youcan'tavoiditreally,"ProfessorRenwicksaid.With everydegree the atmospherewarms, the amount ofmoisture the air can absorbincreasesexponentially-byaboutsevenpercent.Itisnotjustintensestormsthatwearelikelytoseeasaresultofclimatechange.Rural ire team research leader at Scion Research, Dr Tara Strand, told RNZ [http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324681/climate-increasing-future-risk-of-big-wild ires-rural- ire-expertclimatechangewouldcontributetoheightened ireriskinthefuture,simi-lartothesizeandscaleofChristchurch'sPortHills iresinFebruary."Thecombinationofclimate,vegetationchangeandpeople...[means]wearelikelytoseethistypeof irebehaviourincreasethroughoutthedrierpartsofNewZealand,"DrStrandsaid.NIWAsaidwindchangesarealsopossiblewithclimatechangeandthefrequencyofwindsof108km/hcoulddoubleby2080.Anincreaseofwesterlywindsofabout10percentby2040and20percentby2090isalsopossibleandinthewinterthisincreasecouldbegreater.Sea level rise will continue for several centuries even if greenhouse gas emissions are re-duced-thepredictionforNewZealandisanincreaseof18to59cmbetween1990and2100.Theprojected increase inwesterlywind could alsoin luence the oceanwaves. Inparticularcoastalregionsexposedtoprevailingwindscouldseeanincreaseinthefrequencyof heavyswellsthatwouldaddtoeffectsofhighersealevels.It'spredictedthatsnowlineswillrise,thedurationofthesnowseasonwilldecreaseandglaci-erswillcontinuetomelt.Droughtriskforareaspronetodrynesswill likely increaseinthenextcentury.http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/328279/extreme-weather-a-taste-of-climate-effects

NewZealand loodsforceevacuationsafterTropicalStormDebbie

6April2017The entire townof Edgecum-

be on New Zealand's North

Island has been evacuated,

aftersevere looding.About600homes and2,000people are affected, as trac-tors and boats helped takelocals to safety. The rain,caused by the remnants ofCyclone Debbie, which hitAustralia a week ago, hascaused a river to burst itsbanks.The mayor has described

theextremeweatherasaonce-in-500-yearsevent.Heavyrainsalso loodedroadsinWellington,thecapital,andwentontosoakNewZealand'sSouthIsland.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39511326

PartsofNewZealandhitwith6months’worthofrainin4weeks

7April,2017


SomeareasofNewZealandhavere-

portedlybeenhitwithclosetohalfa

year’s worth of rain in four weeks.

Abridged

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/parts-of-new-zealand-hit-with-6-months-worth-of-rain-in-4-weeks/

Cyclone Debbie formed rare weather event as it bore down on New Zealand

7 Apr, 2017 4:05pm

A boat makes it way down the

street as looding in Edgecumbe

forcedresidentstoevacuationyes-

terday. Photo/Bay of Plenty

Times/Andrew Warner. NZ Her-

ald

The remnant energy of ex-

tropical cyclone Debbie formed

an 'atmospheric river', a rare

weather event linked to the del-

uge which soaked the country this

week.

Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said at-

mospheric rivers, described as

long, narrow regions in the atmosphere transporting water vapour, only occur about 40 days

out of the year and are linked to about half the country's rainfall extremes. He said this week's

tropical torrent produced up to three times the normal April rainfall for some locations in just

three days.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11834144

MetService keeping an eye on two tropical disturbances in Paci ic

7 April 2017 JOHN EDENS AND THOMAS MANCH

NOAA NorthwestofFiji, thisisoneof

twotropicaldisturbancesbeingmoni-

toredinthePaci ic.

MetService forecaster Matt Ford said

there were two tropical disturbances

being monitored by the Fiji authori-

ties.

A MetService tropical cyclone bulle-

tin says the chance of the system

near Niue intensifying into a tropical

cyclone is low to moderate over the

weekend but, as a signi icant tropical

depression, it is expected to bring


heavy rain. The other tropical disturbance is expected to move south-southwest towardssouthern Vanuatu on Sunday and Monday. The Fiji Meteorological Service tropical cycloneforecast largelyechoestheNewZealandmeteorologists.Strongwinds,heavyrain,and thun-derstormsareforecastforNiueovertheweekend.Meanwhile,theNationalInstituteofWaterandAtmosphericResearchsaysAucklandrecord-ed the equivalent of normal April rainfall - 84.6mm - in 14 hours from Tuesday evening toWednesdaymorning.ManypartsofthecountryhadtwoorthreetimesthenormalAprilmonthlyrainfallinjusttwoorthreedays.Hamiltonhaditssecondwetteststarttoanycalendaryearonrecordsince1907with537mmof rain. The torrent dumped 164mm of rain onTauranga while Whakatane had its wettestApril dayonrecord since1952.Kaitaiahasits secondwettest start to any calendar year onrecord since 1948with 567 mm. Wellington Airport recorded 72 mm in one day between9.00amWednesdayand9.00amThursday,makingitthewettestdayattheairportinalmostadecade.

Edgecumbe was inun-dated when a stopbankfailed and the townshiplooded.Edgecumbe loodedafter

ex-Cyclone Debbie

mergedwith a lowpres-

suresystemanddumped

a month's worth of rain

inacoupleofdays.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/91332095/metservice-keeping-an-eye-on-two-tropical-disturbances-in-paci ic

Flood-threatenedDunedinperMayorDaveCull

12April2017HAMISHMCNEILLYFlood-threatenedDunedinis"preparingfortheworst"givenweatherpredictions,MayorDaveCull says. Cull tolda press conference held in Civil Defence's Dunedin bunker the city was"hoping for thebest". The councilactivated its emergencyoperations centreaheadof antici-pated loodingissuesonWednesdayevening.

HAMISH McNEILLY/FAIRFAX NZ

Contractors clear drains in St

Clair,Dunedin,aheadofexpect-

ing loodingovernightWednes-

day.

Thousands of sandbags werebeing illedforconcernedresi-dents.http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/91497823/ looding-fears-for-dunedin-as-heavy-rain-lashes-new-zealand


CycloneCookapproachesNewZealand,bringing'worststorm'since196813April2017MetServicesaysithasnotseenastormlikeCycloneCooksincetheonein1968thatsunktheWahine,killing52passengers.Alow-pressuresystemfollowedbythetailendofthecycloneisduetobringrainandgalestolargepartsofthecountryuntilFriday.TheMinistryofEducationadvised94schoolsand130early learningcentrestoclosetomor-row.Theaffectedareasare:EasternBayofPlenty,Franklin,GreatBarrierIsland,WaihekeIs-land,ThamesandCoromandel.MetServicewarned someareas could experienceup to250mmofrain in the48hoursfrommiddayWednesday,gustsof150km/hormore,largewavesinexcessof5mandstormsurges.

MetService is expecting Cyclone Cook

to affect the country from Thursday.

Photo:MetService

Driving conditions are likely to behazardous, so people will need totake extra care on the roads, andeven consider altering their Eastertravelplans."Itsaidthemost intenseweatherwasexpected to hit land about 6pm onThursday, but highwinds anddown-pourswouldstartearlier.The bad weather began in Aucklandon Wednesday evening, with heavyrain causing looding in at least 22properties,includingtheThreeKings

Plaza.The NZ Transport Agency earlier said conditions on the roads and motorways in Aucklandwereverypoor.TheBayofPlentyRegionalCouncilsaidthestopbanksalongtheRangitāikiRiver,whichburstinlastweek'storrentialrain, loodingEdgecumbe,werelikelytoholdinthelatestonslaught,butitcouldnotbeabsolutelycertain.http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/328681/worst-storm-since-wahine-disaster-metservice

'Bigloudcrackingsound'-wildweatherinAucklandcauseslargeclifftocrumbleandfallintoseabelow

13AprilWild weather overnight in Auckland has caused a cliff to partially collapse inGreenhithe,sendingtreesandsoilintotheseabelow.SteveWest ilmedthedamagecausedtoaneighbouringbackyardandpostedthevideotoFa-cebookthismorning."CycloneCookhasn't even arrived yet, but thedamagehasbegun,"MrWestwrote onFace-book.It's been warned that Auckland Harbour Bridge could close if the wind is strong enough.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/big-loud-cracking-sound-wild-weather-in-

auckland-causes-large-cliff-crumble-and-fall-into-sea-below


New Zealand battered by CycloneCook

14April2017

More than 15,000 people are without

power in New Zealand's North Island

after strong winds from ex-Cyclone

Cook downed trees and power lines

overnight.

The powerful storm system hit theBayofPlentyregionjustaftersunseton Thursday - cutting power to theWhakatane district. Power is alsooutinHawke'sBay.

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/04/14/new-zealand-battered-by-cyclone-cook.html

Photos:CycloneCookslamsNZwithheavyrain,severegales, looding

14April2017Nik Given A resident in the Waika-

to's Te Aroha sent us this image of

looding at his property.

Heavy rain and strong winds arehitting New Zealand as CycloneCook makes its way south acrossthecountry.Theworstofthestormhas passed for the North Island asMarlborough,CanterburyandOtagofall into focus with heavy rain andpossible looding expected in thoseareasonFriday.MARTY SHARPE/ FAIRFAX NZ Cy-

clone Cook felled trees and power-

lines on Joll Road in Havelock North.


BRADEN FASTIER The swing foot-

bridge across Moutere River at

Holdaway Rd in Tasman was

washedoutonWednesdaynight.

earth.nullschool.net Cyclone Cook

pictured approaching the North

Island in this graphic.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/

national/91530994/photos-cyclone-cook-slams-nz-with-heavy-rain-severe-gales- looding

Cyclone Cook strikes NZ - Storm makes landfall, tracks down east coast

13 Apr, 2017

Key Points: Cyclone Cook made land-

fall in Bay of Plenty, hit Hawke's Bay

and is tracking down the east coast of

the South Island.

It passed east of Wellington about

3am, Kaikoura at 6am, east of Banks

Peninsula about 9am and east of Oam-

aru about noon.

It is weakening.

It's raining heavily in Christchurch.

More than 9000 residents in Hawke's

Bay and about 1400 homes in Bay of

Plenty are without power

Two people hospitalised in Hawke's

Bay after a tree hit their car

Civil Defence asking people to remain

inside and not go sight seeing in the

morning


Thames,CoromandelandBayofPlentyremainunderstatesofemergencyHavingbatteredtheBayofPlentyandHawke'sBay,leavinghomes loodedandwithoutelec-tricity,CycloneCookisstillheadingsouth.Weatherwatchreportstheex-cyclonewill"slink"southwardsdowntheeasternsideoftheSouthIslandtoday.Asitmovessouthwards,expectanorthwesterlyair lowfortherestofNewZealand.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11837255

CycloneCookvsCycloneDebbie:Thescienceofthestorms

13Apr,2017JamieMortonNZheraldBandsassociatedwithCycloneCookwerevisibleonMetService'srainradarat11amtoday.It'sbeingcalledthemostpowerfulstormtohitNewZealandindecadesbuthowdoesCycloneCookcomparetoDebbie?Generally, meteorologists say last week's storm, the remnants of a tropical cyclone, was acomplex, widespread and longer-lasting system illed with an assortment of troughs andfronts.With Cook, the system will be a more tightly packed beast, faster moving, and potentiallymuchmoredevastating.DebbieformedovertheCoralSea,morphedintoaCategory4system,andslammedintoAirlieBeach,Queensland,onMarch28,beforeweakeningandtravellingsouth.Its remnantswerepulled across theTasman Sea towardsNewZealand, a process that alsohelpedformwhatNiwameteorologistscalledan"atmosphericriver".Atmosphericrivers arerelatively long, narrowregions in the atmosphere, likerivers in thesky,thattransportmostofthewatervapouroutsideofthetropics.ResearchindicatesthatforNewZealand,atmosphericrivershappenabout40daysayearandareassociatedwithabouthalfthecountry'srainfallextremes.MetServicemeteorologistLisaMurraysaidDebbiehaddiedawaywhenanotherlowcamein,soakedupitswarmmoistairandinvigoratedanotherlow,whicheventuallyhitNewZealandmid-lastweek."BythetimeitgottoNewZealand,itwasreallyawidespreadthing.Youhadthelow,butyoualsohadthesetroughsandfrontsmovingaroundit,andthesecameinthebandsofrainthatwereceivedallaroundus,"Murraysaid."Yes,wehadwarm,moistair,andwehaddownpours,andbecausesomeofthe activitywasslow-moving,especiallyalongsomeconvectivelines,wegotsomereallylargeaccumulations."Auckland recorded exactly its normal April rainfall, 84.6mm, in just 14 hours between theeveningofApril4andthemorningofApril5;Whakatane,nearwhereEdgecumbewasover-whelmedbyadelugethatpouredthroughacollapsedstopbank,receivedatotal209mm.Butwith Cook, the connectionbetween its origins as a Category2cyclone that formednearVanuatuearlySundayandwhatitistodaywasmuchmoredirect.Cookhadlargelyremainedonelow-pressuresystem,althoughonethathadshiftedtoamid-latitudelowsinceitleftthetropics.Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said the cyclone's energy had been harnessed by a low in theTasmanSea,whichhadthenhauleditsouthtowardsNewZealand."Sothistime,theTasmanlowiskindoflikeaconductorandCookisplayingthenotes."MeteorologistsexpectCycloneCooktopackmoreofapunch:severegalesofgustsof150km/hormorearepossiblewhenitmakeslandfallinCoromandelandBayofPlentythisevening;inAuckland,gustscouldreach120km/htoday."Rainfallwillbeasproli ic,ifnotmoreproli icinsomeplacesthiseveningasthelastone,butthemaindifferencebetweenthetwoisthewindthatthissystemis likelytogenerate,alongwiththeassociatedpotentialdangersitbrings,"Nollsaid.MeteorologistswerestillreferringtoCookasacyclone"becauseweneedpeopletositupandlisten",Murraysaid.


"Although it's fastmoving, andwillmoveover thecountry veryquicklybecause the isobarsaresotightlypacked,thewindsarereallystrongandtheyaregoingtocomedifferentdirec-tionsasthelowmovesby."So we are just concerned about the impacts of this and are really telling people to battendownthehatches."Thefast-movingnatureofCycloneCookalsosetitapartfromthedestructiveCycloneBolain1988,whichlingeredfordaysovertheNorthIsland,andalsoCycloneGiselle in1968,whichcausedthestormyseasthatledtotheWahinedisasterintheCookStrait,andalsohungaboutfordays.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11837735MetServicedefends'dire'warningsaheadofCycloneCook

18April2017radionzA Metservice meteorologistsays, due to climate change,extreme weather events arelikelytocontinue.The stopbankwallwhichhas

been pushed onto College

Road, was supposed to pre-

vent looding from the river

Rangataiki but it breached

and looded the majority of

thetowncausingtheevacua-

tionof1600residents.Thurs-

day6April2017Photo:RNZ/

BradWhite

This MetService infrared sat-

ellite from6amshowsthecy-

clone has largely passed the

NorthIslandandismovingover

theSouth.Photo:MetService

Much of the country wasbraced last Thursday for Cy-clone Cook which was predict-ed to be the worst weatherevent in decades. But in manyareas, including Aucklandwhere commuters left workearly,thedangerousstormdid-n'tpackthepunchexpected.Media and forecasters havebeen criticised for getting itwrong and over-hyping theevent.But Lisa Murray is defendingthe warnings and says the re-sult could have been very dif-

ferent."Wehavesomeverystrictcriteriathatweadheretoforwarnings.Weonlyputawarningoutifweareexpectinggustsof120kmhor100mlofrainfallin24hours."


She saysAuckland andWellingtonmissed theworst of itbecauseCycloneCook tracked fur-thereastthanexpectedandthecentreofthelowwasn'tasdeepas irstthought.LisaMurraysaysitisnotoriouslyhardtopinpointtracksfromthetropics."Even50kminonedirectionoranotherdirectioncanreallyimpacttheforecastforaregionandthat'sexactlywhathappenedinAuckland."She says a team of 65 MetService meteorologists analyse numerous global models for con-sistency."Themodels aren't used to these very extremeevents. So it certainlyhelps tohavethathumantouchthatwecanaddtotheforecastandtrytogetthemessage,whenthereisasevereweathereventouttothepublic."Wewanttobeabletowarnthepublicsotheycanpro-tecttheirproperties,protecttheiranimalsandprotecttheirlovedonesaswell."http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201840620/metservice-defends-'dire'-warnings-ahead-of-cyclone-cookMetServiceadvertstooannoying,smartphoneuserscomplain

TOM PULLAR-STRECKER/

FAIRFAXNZ

The MetService will refund

peoplewhopaidforitsweath-

erappthisyear,priortoitbe-

ingmadefree.

The MetService is under irefor allowingadvertisementson its newly-upgradedsmartphone app, withsomeusers complainingon socialmedia that the advertsitdishesuparetoointrusive.MetService spokeswoman

Jacqui Bridges said those ads were in effect a holding page that was only brie ly dis-played,onceaday,whiletheappwasloading.Thestate-ownedenterprisewasoneofthe irstpublicsectororganisationstoacceptadvertis-ingonitswebsitein2004anditquicklybecameamajorearner.Itsaidinaministerialbrie -inglatelastyearthatitwasa"keyrevenuegeneratorforthecompany".BecausetheAndroidandiPhoneappsarenowfree,theMetServicehasagreedtorefundcus-tomerswhopaidforthemafterJanuary1,iftheycanprovideproofofpurchase.http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/91858287/MetService-adverts-too-annoying-smartphone-users-complainHeavyraincripplesNewZealandvegetablesupply20april2017Ifyou'venoticedalackofsaladgreensatyourlocalsupermarket,you'renotalone.TherecentwetweatherhasdamagedgreenvegetablesupplyacrossNewZealand.Spinachandothergreenssuchasbeans,broccoli,salads,silverbeetandlettuceareallinshortsupply,FoodstuffsspokespersonAntoinetteLairdsays."Customersmaynoticetheretailpriceofthesevegetablesishigherthanusual."SupplierstoFoodstuffs'supermarketsPak'nSaveandNewWorldhavehadsomuchrainthatentire ieldswerecompletelyunderwater,andsomecropscannotsurvivethat,thecompanysays.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/04/heavy-rain-cripples-new-zealand-vegetables-supply.html


NewweatherstationsplannedtokeepLewisPasssafe

3May2017Increased traf ic on themountainous Lewis Passafter the Kaikōura earth-quake has prompted plansfor two new weather sta-tions on the route, theTransportAgencysays.SnowontheLewisPassPho-

to:Supplied:NZTA

Pete Connors from theagency said they needed tomanageiceandsnowontheroad with increased traf icthrough Lewis Pass due tothe closure of State High-way 1 because of Novem-

ber's7.8magnitudeearthquake.MrConnorssaidtwoweatherstationswouldbeinstalledalongwhatwasnowthemainroutebetweenPictonandChristchurch.http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/329950/new-weather-stations-planned-to-keep-lewis-pass-safe

CycloneDonnalashesVanuatuforthirdday

7May2017

Category four Donna cover-

ingmost of Vanuatu. Photo:

VanuatuMetService

Cyclone Donna continuedto lash Vanuatu's northernislands for a third straightday on Sunday, hamperingefforts to send assessmentteams and aid to remoteareas.The cyclone, which re-mainedacategoryfour,lin-geredformuchofSaturdayand Sunday about 300 kmoff the western coast ofTorbaprovince.The Vanuatu Meteorologi-

calServicesaidthecyclonehadsustainedwindsof185km/hatitsAforecaster, JerryTimoteo,saidthecyclone's sizemeantmost ofthecountrywouldfeel itseffects,particularlytheworst-hitTorresislands,whichhadbeenbatteredfordays.ForTorres, the service said the island groupwould continue tobit hit bywinds gusting ashigh as 160km/hwell into Sundaynight. CommunicationwithTorreswasprovingdif icult,saidShadrackWelegtabit,thedirectoroftheDisasterManagementOf ice,butpreliminaryre-portsofdamagetohousesandfoodcropshademerged.


ProgressofCycloneDonnaasofSun-

dayafternoon. Photo: VanuatuMete-

orologicalService

Mr Welegtabit said the cyclone's lin-

gering nature was frustrating the

response effort.

"We cannot do any assessment now -

both aerial assessment and ground

assessment - with the system hover-

ing to the north," he said. "There is

still strong gale force winds around

the provinces so it's not safe to send any aircraft or boat in at this stage."

Mr Welegtabit said disaster authorities and aid agencies were standing by with people and

supplies ready to be deployed to the north as soon as it was possible, which could be on Mon-

day.

The Meteorological Service's Mr Timoteo said Cyclone Donna was expected to slowly move

south later on Sunday and gradually weaken.

While the country's more populous southern islands were likely to be spared a direct hit, he

said, most of the country would still experience severe weather well into next week.

"Heavy rainfall and lash looding was also expected over Torba, Sanma, Malampa and Pena-

ma provinces, especially over low lying areas and areas close to river banks," said Mr Timo-

teo, adding that landslides and coastal looding was also expected.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/paci ic-news/330246/cyclone-donna-lashes-

vanuatu-for-third-day

Fijian Met Service upgrades Cyclone Donna to record-breaking Category 5

8 May, 2017

Fiji Meteorological Service - the agency responsible for Cyclone Donna - has con irmed the

storm has spiked at Category 5. That makes Donna the worst-ever tropical storm to hit the

South Paci ic in the month of May. The record-breaking storm is still battering Vanuatu to-

night before it is expected to head south toward New Caledonia. MetService has said Donna

poses no immediate risk to New Zealand.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11851780

Cyclone Donna downgraded to Category 4

9 May 201

Wind gusts from Cyclone Donna -

the strongest May cyclone ever to

hit Southern Hemisphere - hit

300kmh before the storm was

downgraded, reports say.

After battering Vanuatu at the

weekend, Donna went on to be-

come a Category 5 storm on Mon-

day morning, but has now been re-

classi ied as a Category 4.

Gusts close to the centre had been


estimatedtobeasstrongas300kmhonMondaynight,accordingtotheVanuatuMeteorologyandGeo-hazardsdepartment.http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-paci ic/92329642/Cyclone-Donna-spikes-to-Cat-5-winds-up-to-260kmh

NewpersonalweatherstationbyMetServiceprovideslatestclimatedata

11May2017GERALDPIDDOCKSUPPLIEDMetServicewillberetailingtheBloomSkyweatherstationinJuly.Anew weather device launched byMetServiceallowsfarmerstohavethemostuptodatefarm-speci icweatherinformationattheir ingertips.Called BloomSky, it resembles a min-iatureweatherstationpoweredbyso-larpanels.Itsmaindevice,calledSky2measurestemperature,humidity,bar-ometricpressureandprecipitation.Thereisalsoanoptionaldevicecalled

Stormthatmeasuresrainfall,windspeedanddirection.Bothdevicesrecordandsendthisda-taevery iveminutestoafarmer'slaptop,tabletorsmartphone.MetServicespokesman Angus Swainson said the organisationwent into a partnershipwithBloomSkytobringthetechnologyintoNewZealand."It'sa irstforMetService.Wehavebeeninvolvedwithlotsofdifferenttechnologiesandpart-neredwithdifferentcompanies,butthisisthe irsttimewearebringinginaretailproducttoNewZealand.""Weatherisoneofthemoresigni icantrisksthatimpactsafarmingoperationsotohaveare-al-timeappthatprovidesinsightsintermsofwhathashappened,whatthecurrentweatherisandwhatit'sforecasttobeforyourpropertyhashugepotentialvalue."http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/92428405/New-personal-weather-station-by-MetService-provides-latest-climate-data

EllaheadingnorthofmainlandFiji,Futunainlockdown

11May2017Tropical Cyclone Ella'sprojected course is nowtakingitmanykilometresnorth of Fiji's main is-lands, while the Frenchisland of Futuna, also tothenorth, iseffectively inlockdown.

Meteo France images of

Cyclone Ella, which the

service expected to weak-

en overnight but move

over Fiji. Photo: Meteo

France


ThealertforFutunawasraisedtothemaximumleveltwoashorttimeago.Therearedifferentviewsontheprogressofthecategorytwostorm.MeteoFrancesaysitislikelytoweakenlatertonightandapproachFiji'sVanuaLevu.

But the Fiji Met Of ice isforecasting for Ella to con-tinue moving to the westand to be about 150 kilo-metres to the northeast ofFiji's most northern islandCikobia by the middle ofFridayafternoon.

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone

Warning Centre It also says the storm willintensify to category threeas it moves further westandawayfromFiji.http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/paci ic/330572/ella-

heading-north-of-mainland- iji,-futuna-in-lockdown

Major loodinginAmericanSamoaduetoheavyrain

12May2017HeavyraininAmericanSamoahascausedmajor loodingintheterritory.The Emergency Operations Center reports that some families were evacuated after water

lowed like rivers through theirhomes. According to the Center, af-fectedareasincludeMapusasga,andMesepa, Kokoland, Fagaima, LeoneandAmanaveNormally water trickles down the

mountside at Failolo village, but

heavy rain recently lead to it becom-

ing a waterfall. Photo: Monica Miller

The Meteorologist in charge at theNational Weather Service, HansMalala,saidthe loodwaterscameupto the window of his car as he wastrying tomakehisway towork last

night.Hesaidanactivetroughthat isstationaryovertheSamoanislandswasresponsiblefortheincessantrain.http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/paci ic-news/330629/majorlooding-in-american-samoa-due-to-heavy-rain


HeavyrainhitsNorthIslandwithgales,thunderstormsforecast

12May,2017WildweatherintheNorthIslandishittingmotoristswithslipsblockingonemajorrouteintoWellingtonand loodingreportedinWaikato.

Heavy rain fallingthroughout the islandcould be joinedby buf-feted by strong windsandgalesinmanyareason Friday,while severethunderstorms couldhittheeastoftheBayofPlentyandthefarnorthofGisborne.

SIMON SMITH/FAIRFAX

NZ Flooding on Alder-

man Dr in west Auck-

land this morning.Commuters in the Wel-lington regionwerebe-

ingwarnedtheyshouldconsidertakinganalternativeroutetotheHuttValleyasPaekakarikiHillRoad'ssouthboundlanewasblockedbymultipleslips.

METSERVICE Cloud co-

vers the North Island in

this MetService infrared

satellite image at 4am

Friday.

-Stuffhttp://www.stuff.co.nz/national/92500261/Heavy-rain-forecast-for-North-IslandMetService warns ofhuge six-metre swellsaccompanied by coldsnap

18MayThe MetService is warningof huge swells on bothcoasts as gale force south-westerlywindshitthecoun-try.New Zealand Swell forecast

20/05/2017 Source: Met-

Service

A MetService spokesmantold1NEWSNOWthat largeswells are already hitting


theWestCoastoftheSouthIslandatthreetofourmetres,withworsetocome.Thenext fewdayswillseetheswellsbuildtofourtosixmetres inexposedplacesoffbothcoastswiththeworstofthelargeswellspeakingovertheweekend.https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/avoid-water-metservice-warns-huge-six-metre-swells-both-islands-accompanied-cold-snap

MotoristsfreedafterbeingstuckonDesertRoad-closedbywintryblast

20May2017

NZTA/TWITTER Snow blankets

the Desert Road on May 20.

Motorists are now freed af-terbeing stuck in snow on aclosedDesertRoad,astravellersaround the country are disrupt-ed by the irst Antarctic blast oftheyear.MetService had earlier warnedof two to four centimetres ofsnowon theDesertRoadbefore1pm,followedbyanotherperiodof possible snow showers be-

tween4and7pm.WhileQueenstownwoke to1Con Saturdaymorning,the coldest part of the countrywas aspotknownasSwampySummitinthehillsofOtago,with-3C.

JONATHAN DALLIMORE Snow

on the Orongoarongo ranges,

with an Air New Zealand plane

lying in over Wellington's

Evan's Bay.

Earlier, meteorologist BrianMercer said it was "the irstproper cold outbreak of thewinter"."A lot of the ski ields wouldhave had some signi icantfalls, that will start to givethemabasefortheirseason."

QUEENSTOWN AIRPORT Flights

in and out of Queenstown Air-

port were delayed and cancelled

as snow was cleared from its

runway.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/92798846/winters-irst-blast-brings-snow-dump-to-south-island-and-a-damp-day-elsewhere


Monster64-FootWaveMeasuredbyNewBuoyinSouthernOcean

23May,2017JonathanBelles

Amonster64-footwavewasmeasuredlastweekendfollowinganexceptionallystrongstormthatbarreledthroughtheSouthernOcean."This isoneofthelargestwavesrecordedintheSouthernHemisphere,"saidMetOceansen-ioroceanographerDr.TomDurrant.Thewavewasmeasuredroughly400milessouthofNewZealandattheworld'snew south-ernmostmooredbuoy following thepassageof a strong cold front,which racednorthwardacrossNewZealandandintothesouthernPaci icOcean.

Unblocked windsfrom the south andwesthelpedtobuildwaves behind thecoldfront.The wall of water,which towered justshort of six storieshigh, was likely arogue andshort-lived wave. Seaswere very choppy,but other wavesduringthedaywerehalfashigh.Wave height meas-

urements at the buoy. 19.4 meters is approximately 63.64 feet. Time corresponds to mid-

morning on May 20, 2017 in New Zealand.

(MetOcean)

The of iciallargestwave in the world remainsa 62-foot-tall mountain of water that wasmeasured in the far North Atlantic between Iceland and the United Kingdom in Febru-ary2013.Thatwavealsofollowedastrongcoldfront.https://www.wunderground.com/news/monster-wave-southern-ocean

Guidanceorspeculation

24May,2017byDrSushilKSharma

MuduvillagerTevitaVunilebasurrounded

byasmanyas60damagedhomescaused

by Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Winston on Koro Island. The author says

forecasts should help Fijians better pre-

pare for weather events and not unduly

alarmthem.Pict

FIJIANSwereunjusti iablyandneedlesslyalarmedbyournationalweatherservicethatwewouldexperienceat leasttwotothree cyclones in our waters in the justended tropical cyclone season(November1,2016toApril30,2017).We were also wrongly and excessivelyalarmed when told that at least one cy-


clonewouldbeatCategory3orabove;thetermbringingbackthememoriesofSevereTropi-calCycloneWinston.Wewerealsotold ivetosevenwouldforminourareaofresponsibilitywith "high con idence". (TheFijiMeteorological Service (FMS)mediarelease14/10/16and2016/17tropicalcycloneoutlookrelease14/10/16,TheFijiTimes15/10/16).AnytropicalcycloneguidanceinformationismeanttobetterprepareFijiansforthetropicalcycloneseasonnotundulyalarmthemwhenthecon idenceintheprediction,inmyeducatedexperienceandopinion,isalmostasgoodaszero.Thoughitmayhavebeendoneingoodfaith,forstarterstheguidancewasfactuallywrong—giventhestatisticalandscienti icdata,includingtheatmosphericandoceanicprecursorsandthedynamicmeteorology inplay at the time— to arrive at thiswrongconclusionof two tothree,insteadofonepoint ive(<1.5)orlessinourwaters.The"collaboration"bytheFMStowardsourguidancebytheAustralianBureauofmeteorolo-gy (BoM), National Institute of Water and AtmosphericResearch (NIWA) and the New Zea-land'sMetServicehasoftenresultedina"dilutionandadulteration"towardsourthinking,inmypersonalopinion.NIWA has argued in the past that the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC-TCC) not deal with seasonal outlooks (predictions and/orguidance)oftropicalcyclones.This,itsaid,wastherole/functionoftheregionalclimatecen-tres(RCCs).InourWMORegionalAssociation5(RAV),wedonothaveanydesignatedRCCs.Onlytwoex-ist,theBeijingClimateCentre(BCC)andtheTokyoClimateCentre(TCC).NIWAargued that in the absenceof anyRCCs, as theyweredoing the island climateupdate(ICU)function,theyhadbeentaskedtoactasaregionalmechanismfortheprovisionofsea-sonaloutlooks, ietoperformavirtualRCCroleuntilsuchtimeasaregionalRCCwasfound,agreedtoandformedforourregion.This iswhere theproblem lies inpartwithNIWA trying to grandstand tropical cyclone andotherguidanceinformationdespitealackofexpertiseandoperationalexperienceinthetrop-icalPaci icregion.IthasbeenmyviewthattheNadiRMSC-TCCisthebestpositionedtoadvise,withoutanyout-sideinterference,onwhatmayormaynothappeninourpartofthePaci icandareaof fore-castingresponsibility.NIWA,BoMandothershavetriedto in luencethethinkinginourpartoftheworld,andalsobecome the inal arbiter of the "tropical cyclone guidance" that eachof thePaci ic nationalmeteorologicalcentres(NMSs)tell theirowngovernmentsandthemedia. Infact,NIWAwaspreviously inthehabitofbroadcastingitsown"tropicalcycloneguidancesummary"forourregiontotheinternationalmediaoftentakingourowncommunity,societyandnationbysur-prise.This I experiencedduring the2010/11 tropical cyclone season,when I intervenedof iciallyaskingdueprotocolbefollowedsoweatleastcouldbriefourowngovernmentadministrativemachinery.Asacerti iedClass1professionalmeteorologistattheFMS,whereIwasalsotheprincipalsci-enti icof icerandmanageroftheClimate,SpecialServicesandResearchDivision.Iauthoredthetropicalcycloneguidanceforseason2010/11forFijiandtheSouthwestPaci icRSMCre-gion Equator to latitude 20 degrees South and longitudes 160 degrees East to 120 degreesWest.Myclaimshavecredibilitybecauseofmyexperienceswiththeseorganisations.NewZealandershavealsorecentlycomplainedabouttheextremeforecastsprovidedbytheirMetService.TheMetServicehaderroneouslymadeseverepredictions leadinguptoTropicalCycloneCookhittingNewZealand.IthadwarnedTCCookwouldbetheworstweathereventindecades.Howeverthestormfailedtodelivertheextremeweatherforecast.TheerroneousinformationorguidanceprovidedtoFijianson14/10/2016causedmuchdis-cussion and concern amongFijians given theyhadnot fully recovered from the impact andtraumaofSevereTCWinstononlyeightmonthsearlier.


Notingtheinsensitivityofourweatherservice"torubsalt intothewound",sotospeakandespeciallywhen theywere going for elevated risk against the tide of science,which insteadclearly favoured amuchquieter season, Iwrote an article inThe Fiji Times titled "Cyclonepredictions"onNovember7,2016.Itspurposewastodemystifyandexplainthedegreeofuncertaintyintheguidance.Itclari iedmanysalientpointsof interesthereandthereaderisreferredto it for furtherfactualanaly-sis.Itshouldbenotedthearticlepointedoutthatinaneducatedanalysis,thenumberoftrop-icalcyclonesinourFijianswaterswouldbeonepoint ive(1.5)orlessandnottwotothree-3)asstatedinthetropicalcycloneguidanceandoutlookissuedbytheFMS.IwasalmostcertainnocyclonewouldtraversethroughFijiwaterstheentire2016-17season.Noone,itappears,tooknoteandtheentirepopulacekeptimaginingatumultuousandhecticsixmonthsinwhichourweatherservicefolksevenmentionedwewouldhaveonecycloneatCategory3orabove."Orabove"meaningthepossibilityofoneatCategory4or5.Ifwelookbackatthe2016-17tropicalcycloneseasonwenoteitwasveryquiet indeed, fortheentireSouthernHemisphere.OnlyfourcyclonesformedintheFijiareaofresponsibility:Cook andDonna—nearNewCaledonia;Bart andEllanear theCookIslands andWallis andFutuna.Ofthe10namesreservedthisseason,sixremainedunused—Fehi,Gita,Hola,Iris,JoandKala. It shouldbenotednot a singlecyclone formedor affected anypart ofFiji ortrav-ersedthroughFijiwaters,contrarytotheguidance.DonnaandEllawerestillnormalseasonal2016-17tropicalcyclonesandde initelynotoutofseason.Weathersystemsdonottaketimeoutassoonas itreachesApril30.TheydonotrelyontheGregoriancalendarashumansdo.Duringthetransitionintowinter, it isnormal forsystemstolingerjustpasttheApril30dateforuptoafewweeks.Theseatakestimetocoolaswaterhasaverypoorspeci icheatcapacity;itisaverypoorconductor—takestimetoheat(inNo-vember)andtakestimetocool(inApril).Thisexplainsthetwosystemsjustoccurringontheperiphery,butwithinthetransitionperi-odofthechangeofseason.Noclaimsshouldbemadethatthisis"climatechange",anonsensi-calsuggestion.DuringEl-Nino/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)inducedyears, thetropicalcycloneseason isal-waysextended.Cycloneshavealwaysformedhistoricallyafewweekseithersideofthecalen-dardatesasourplanetearthtransitionsfromoneseasontoanother.As a scientistwhohashad irst-hand experience in these operationalmatters, including thepreparationof the guidance for FMS, I amof the opinion that the tropical cyclone seasonalguidanceisaneedlessexercisethatshouldbediscontinuedinthepresentmannerandformasithasno"forecastvalue"whatsoever.Theso-calledforecastisquitesimplyaninsensitiveexercise.Itisnotaccurateandfullofver-bosethatcannotbeunderstoodbylaymenorwomen.Thepredictionsareindeedquitecrudewithtermslike"elevatedrisk","averagerisk"and/or"belowaveragerisk".Solargeistheuncertaintyintheguidance,inmyopinion,itwouldmakenodifferencetoourcommunity, society andnation at large if itwasnot provided.These erroneouspredictionsaremerespeculationdoingmoreharmthangoodtoournation.*DrSushilKSharmaBAMAMEng(RMIT)PhD(Melbourne)isanassociateprofessorofMete-orologyattheFijiNationalUniversityandisaWMOcerti iedClass1ProfessionalMeteorolo-gist.Theviewsexpressedarehisownandnotthatofhisemployersnorthisnewspaper.http://www. ijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=401754MysterybangjoltsTaurangaawake,butwasitjustthunder?29May2017

MetServicesaystheloudbangwasprobablythunder,butnotalllocalsareconvinced.AmysterybangisthetalkofTaurangaafter itwokemanylocals intheweehoursofSundaymorning. One local believed it could have been a meteor, another thought it was an earth-quake,whileathirdbelieveda"sonicboom"wasthecause.http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/93062313/mystery-bang-jolts-tauranga-awake-but-was-it-just-thunder

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