itm analyst presentation fy11 24feb12 (final) · 2020. 11. 17. · reserves upgrade 2011: note on...
TRANSCRIPT
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28 February 2012
ANALYST BRIEFINGFY11 Performance Results
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Disclaimer
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking
information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by PT.Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of
an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction
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Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Operational Review
3. Commercial Review
4. Financial Review
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DisclaimerAgenda
1. Introduction
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Highlights of 4Q11 & FY11 Results
Q-Q
+8%
0%
0%
+19%
+5%
Unit: USD Million
Coal sales
7.1 MtUp 0.3 Mt
+4% Q-Q
FY10
1,645
32%
363
204
$74.9
y-y
+45%
+5%
+95%
+168%
+30%
Coal sales
24.7 MtUp 2.5 Mt
+11% y-y
FY11
2,382
37%
707
546
$97.1
Total Revenue
Gross Profit Margin
EBIT
Net Income
ASP (USD/ton)
3Q11
678
39%
219
156
$98.4
4Q11
733
39%
220
185
$103.1
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DisclaimerAgenda
2. Operational Review
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Reserves upgrade 2011
JORONGINDOMINCO KITADIN EMB & TMTRUBAINDO BHARINTO
• In-Pit Crushing Conveying (‘IPCC’) system means it will be economic to go deeper (and mine more resources)
• IPCC facilitates cheaper and quicker OB removal costs from deeper pits (enabling overall OB costs per bcm to remain competitive)
• Exploration work has also boosted reserves at IndomincoEast Block in 2011
• Further reserves upgrades are planned at Indominco East Block based on additional exploration and mining studies.
RESERVES UPGRADE : INDOMINCO EAST BLOCK
• Engineering studies (including IPCC) and further exploration drilling have boosted reserves estimates
• Further reserves upgrades are planned at Bharinto based on additional exploration and mining studies.
RESERVES UPGRADE : BHARINTO
Unit: Mt
YE 2010 YE 2011
SALES
25
-17 6
RESERVES UPGRADE
YE 2010 YE 2011
SALES
-15150+39 174
YE 2010 YE 2011
SALES
-225 23
YE 2010 YE 2011
SALES
-7109 102
YE 2010 YE 2011
45
+67 112
RESERVES UPGRADE
Total reserves as of 31 Dec 2011: 417 Mt
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Coal reserves growth
Organic increase in reserves*
Exploration, study and LT price:
Exploration, study and LT price:
Study: Exploration, study and LT price:
Exploration, new technology (IPCC):
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+3Mt
+106Mt
+92Mt
+46Mt
+63Mt
Indominco (+39)
Bharito (+67)
Indominco (+19)
Kitadin (+10)
Bharito (+18)
Indominco (+66)
Trubaindo (+27)
Trubaindo (+3) Indominco (+29)
Trubaindo (+36)
*Not including the effect of sales depletion
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Reserves upgrade 2011: note on IPCC method
100 m
50 m
PIT BENCHES
BACKHOEEXCAVATOR
TRUCK
IN-PITCRUSHER
IN-PITCONVEYORS
SPREADER STOCKPILE
100 m
50 m
IPCC ILLUSTRATION
• IPCC, electricity-based mining method, tends to require higher capex but lower opex as compared to diesel excavation and trucking
• It also requires sufficient mine life (10 years+) and sufficient volume• Typically allows economic OB and coal excavation at depths of 100-200m
where conventional truck/shovel method would not be economic.
.
SEMI-MOBILE CRUSHER
CONVEYOR
SPREADER
-
.
Indominco14.8mt output in FY11. Output target of 15.0mt for 2012
Captive coal-fired power
Trubaindo7.1mt output in FY11.
Output target of 7.1 Mt for 2012
Jorong1.4mt output in FY11. Output
target of 1.0mt for 2012
Bharinto0.7mt output target in
2012Kitadin-Embalut1.3 Mt output in FY11. Output target of 0.7mt for 2012
Kitadin-Td.Mayang0.4mt output in FY11 and 2.7mt output target for 2012. Also worked in FY11 as mining contractor at IMM area
FY11 output: 25mt and FY12 target: c.27mt
Operation in 2012
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Indominco Mandiri
3.1
EAST BLOCK
Santan River Port stock yard
Bontang City
Asphalt haul road 2.5Km
35Km
Sea conveyor
Mine stockyard
Inland conveyor 4km
0 106 82 km4
WEST BLOCK
Operations
Stockpile
Ports
Hauling
Crusher
ROM stockpile
INDOMINCO-BONTANG SCHEMATIC
Post Panamax
95,000DWT
INDOMINCO PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
3.1 3.44.2 4.1
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
20112012
SR 13.511.8
12.0 12.1
West Block
1.8 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
East Block
1.3 1.6 1.62.1 2.1
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
SR 15.8 12.513.1 13.3
10.1 10.910.9 10.9
Volume
FY11 output: 14.8mt; FY12 target: 15.0mt
Volume
MAJOR QUARTERLY UPDATESFY11 production achieved as target mainly from better weather condition in 2H11 and additional mining equipment from PAMA Continue the pre-feasibility study for washing plant at East Block areaCompleted pre-feasibility study on In-Pit Crushing Conveyer (IPCC) system Conduct study to expand existing port capacity and to expand mine-stock capacity by consultant
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Trubaindo and Bharinto
Mahakam River
Operation
Stockpile
Hauling
Barge Port
Crusher
South Block 1(Dayak Besar)
North Block
40kmMine to port
KedangpahuRiver
ROM stockpile
BunyutPort
0 10 2515 205 km
Product coal conveyor, stacking,
stockpile
TRUBAINDO-BHARINTO SCHEMATIC
EAST KALIMANTAN
Bharinto 60km south west of
TrubaindoNorth Block
South Block 2(Biangan)
PT. BHARINTO
PT. TRUBAINDO
TRUBAINDO PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.82.1
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
SR : 10.0 11.9 14.1
12.4FY11 output: 7.1mt; FY12 target: 7.1mt
20112012Volume :
BHARINTO PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
FY12 target: 0.7mt
Volume : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
20112012
MAJOR QUARTERLY UPDATESTrubaindo:
FY11 production was slightly lower than target due to full stockyard capacity as a result of Kutai Kartanegara Bridge Collapse
Bharinto: Already started pre-stripping activities since Jan 2012Coal hauling road to port is expected to be completed by 1Q12Expect to commence operations in 2Q12
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Kitadin Embalut and Td.Mayang
Balikpapan
MahakamRiver Samarinda to Muara Berau
Bontang city
EMBALUT
Embalut Port
to Muara Jawa
ROM stockpile
Operations
Stockpile
Ports
Hauling
Crusher
0 106 82 km4
5km Mine to port
TD. MAYANG
EAST KALIMANTAN
IMM EB
KITADIN SCHEMATIC
IMM WB
Bontang Port
EMBALUT PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
SR : 8.9 8.7 11.211.5
FY11 output: 1.3mt; FY12 target: 0.7mt
Volume :
TD.MAYANG PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Volume :0.0 0.0 0.0
0.2
FY11 output: 0.4mt; FY12 target: 2.7mt
20112012
201120120.4
0.5
15.1SR :
MAJOR QUARTERLY UPDATESKitadin Embalut:
FY11 production achieved higher than plan supported by good performance of mining contractorsLower production in 2012 due to approaching difficult mining condition (hard-band materials) and land compensation
Kitadin Tandung Mayang: Already have production from its own area since 3Q11 and expect 2.7mt production in 2012Currently also has some fleets working as mining contractor at Indominco area
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Jorong
Coal terminal
Jorong
Pelaihari
Pacific Ocean
Haul road
Operations
Stockpile
Hauling
Barge Port
0 10 2515 205 km
20km
JORONG SCHEMATIC JORONG PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
0.3 0.2
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
SR :
FY11 output: 1.4mt; FY12 target: 1.0mt
8.6
Volume :0.4
8.6
0.4
8.6
201120120.3
8.6
MAJOR QUARTERLY UPDATES
FY11 production achieved according to target due to good contractor performance
Maintain production level of around 1.0mt per annum due to limited reserves
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DisclaimerAgenda
3. Commercial Review
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Main 2012 coal market driver update
Weather Chinese Demand World Growth
Sources: Country Forecast February 2012 from The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2012
• Gas/oil (and nuclear) favor the coal.
• Develop scarcity for benchmark coal quality
• Growing supply (and demand) for off-spec coal
• Europe is on supply issue but not on demand issue
• Can US continue to sell below cost?
• How much low-ranked coal can be shipped in 2012?
• How long can Indian politics cap tariffs/ slow growth/ and cap currency?
• World growth forecast 2.0% Asian growth forecast 6.0%
• Indonesia wet season seems normal (↓ 20% rain) but some operations affected more than others. Can 2H2012 be as good as 2H 2011?
• Chinese winter is normal. Will wet season boost hydro?
• Australian weather damage yet to appear.
• Currently demand weak, stocks high, but not if compared consumption level.
• Production varies by region, transportation and lower quality still a constraint.
• 1Q 2011 weak, improving in 2Q and exceptionally strong in 3Q and 4Q.
• Could 2012 similar? But with higher starting base?
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Thermal coal benchmark prices
Coal price benchmarksIndonesian indices follow seasonal impact more than other indices
South African index is affected by higher railing, coinciding with greater competition from Indonesia and lately Australia and Colombia for the off-spec coal
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
US$
/ to
nne
FOB Richards Bay 6000 kcal/kg, NARFOB Newcastle 6300 kcal/kg, GARFOB Kalimantan 5900 kcal/kg, GARFOB Kalimantan 5000 kcal/kg, GAR
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Average Selling Prices
USD per tonne
NEX* Feb 11, 2012$116.10
Comparative ASP trend shows traditional lag, due to a mix of pricing and contract length versus the spot indices
ASP captured earlier premium so that the impact of lower quality tons was limited (or be it at higher margin)
ASP 4Q11 $103.1/t
ASP FY11 $97.1/t
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mar
-07
Jun-
07
Sep
-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Monthly BJI
Quarterly BJI
Quarterly ASP
Monthly NEX
Quarterly NEX
Quarterly ASP
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Indicative 2012 Coal Sales
51%
31%
6%13%
Coal sales contract and pricing status Comment
Marginally higher-priced commitment than usual for risk management
Can still capture upside in unpriced portion and in the decreasingly elastic price of indices
Coal sales contract and pricing status
Contract Status Price Status
Contracted Fixed
Index
TARGET SALES 2012: C. 27 Mt
UncontractedUnpriced
Unsold
87%
13%
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Coal Sales by Geographic Destination JAPAN (16%)
INDIA (9%)
INDONESIA (9%)
PHILIPPINES (5%)
HONG KONG (4%)
TAIWAN (8%)
S.KOREA (5%)
THAILAND (7%)
2012 trend expectation
2012
*Includes small, non-regular purchasers
Coal sales 2011 (total 24.7 Mt)
OTHERS* (0%)
2012
CHINA (23%)
2012 2012
2012
2012
20122012
2012
4.1 4.2 4.5
4.1
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
2.4
0.6
1.8 1.4
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012
-
0.9 1.2 0.9
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2008 2009 2010 20111.6
3.1
5.1 5.8
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 1.7
2.6 2.4 2.0
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
1.6 1.8
1.1 1.3
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
1.4 1.3 0.5
2.1
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
2.1 2.0
1.5 1.7
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
0.1 0.2 0.2
- -
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
2008 2009 2010 2011
MALAYSIA (5%) 2012
1.3 0.9 1.1
1.3
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
0.1
2.2
0.9
2.3
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
ITALY (7%)
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DisclaimerAgenda
4. Financial Review
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Sales Revenue
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Units: Million TonSALES VOLUME
Units: USD/Ton
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Units: USD Million
REVENUE* GROWTH
IndomincoTrubaindo
JorongKitadin
* excluding port revenue2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
18.1 17.7
+11%YoY
21.022.2
73.9
42.3
+30%YoY
71.574.9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
765
1,311
1,5011,658
+45%YoY
24.7
97.1
2,397
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Average Gross Margin
* COGS included royalty
Units: USD million
ITM Consolidated Indominco Trubaindo Kitadin Jorong2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
1,501
38%
1,052
30%
473
28%
41% 124
19%
111
26%2010
1,645
32%
2010
1,293
23%
2010
540
32%
2010
192
21%
2010
4119%
Total Revenue
GPM* (%)
2011
2,382
37%
28%
1,758
28%
2011 2011 2011 2011
815
37% 219
32%105
18%
-
EBITDAUnits: USD million CONSOLIDATED
MINE BY MINE
*COGS = Prod cost + Transport cost + Inv. movement
Revenue20102009 2011
415.7
COGS SellingRoyalty Admin
491.9
290.7
148.0
42.820.3
Indominco Trubaindo2009
Kitadin Jorong2010 2011
248.0
119.9
49.7(10.8)
Units: USD million
763.9(96.2)
+737.2
+84%YoY
450.3
224.9
79.1
13.5
(23.5) (6.6)
Royalty increased with revenues
Higher ASP by 30%Higher Volume by 11%
(262.7)
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
-
Net Income
2010 2011OthersEBIT IncomeTax
DerivativeTransactions
FOREXNet Fin.Charges
2009
CONSOLIDATED
MINE BY MINE
Units: USD million
335.5
546.1
208.2
20.7
94.5
7.4
Indominco Trubaindo JorongKitadin
111.280.5
21.8
Units: USD million
(16.9)
+344.0+22.2 +168%
YoY
204.2
+2.4
Derivative gain
340.0
155.5
48.1
(2.0)
(4.5)
+88.4
(110.6)
Higher ASP by 30%Higher Volume by 11%
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
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Balance Sheet
Net Gearing (%)
Net D/E (times)
(30%)
(0.34)(0.36)
(34%)
(Units: USD million)
CASH POSITION
2007 2008
258222
(Units: USD million)
DEBT POSITION
2007 2008
92
11
55
2009
429
(0.47)
(44%)
2009
2011
612
0
2011
(0.57)
(57%)
295
2010
0
2010
(0.41)
(41%)
2007 2008 2009 20112010
-
2012 Capital Expenditure Plan
Units: USD million
Note: Total capex plan including Jakarta office
Indominco Trubaindo Bharinto Kitadin Jorong ITM Consolidated*
209
80
108
96
2
In-pit crushing conveyor systemPort expansionCrushing plant & washing plant
Trubaindo infrastructureCrushing plant
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Disclaimer
Question & Answer
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DisclaimerAgenda
Appendices
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ITM Structure and History
ITMG
65.00%
Indominco Trubaindo Bharinto Jorong
PT Indominco Mandiri
(CCOW Gen.I)
PT Trubaindo Coal Mining
(CCOW Gen II)
PT Kitadin-Embalut
(KP)
PT Bharinto Ekatama
(CCOW Gen III)
PT Jorong Barutama Greston
(CCOW Gen II)
50.00%
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk.
Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte Ltd
99.99% 99.99% 99.99%99.99% 99.67%
174 Mt
695 MtResources
Reserves102 Mt
327 MtResources
Reserves13 Mt
150 MtResources
Reserves112 Mt
298 MtResources
Reserves6 Mt
144 MtResources
Reserves
Banpu Minerals Co.Ltd
Reserves 417* Mt
Resources 1,627* Mt
BMS
99.99%
BMC
Banpu PCLBanpu
Public35.00%
Kitadin
PT Kitadin-Td.Mayang
(KP)
10 Mt13 Mt
Resources
Reserves
BCI50.00%
100.00%Banpu Coal
Investment Co.Ltd
Note: * Updated Coal Resources and Reserves as of 31 Dec 2011
East Kalimantan East Kalimantan South KalimantanEast KalimantanEast / Central Kalimantan
INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGEIPO 18th Dec 2007
6,500-7,300 kcal/kg6,000-6,300 kcal/kg 5,800 kcal/kg6,400-6,800 kcal/kg 6,700 kcal/kg 5,300 kcal/kg
-
Coal Resources and Reserves (as of 31 Dec 2011)
Indominco
Kitadin-Td.Mayang
Jorong
Trubaindo
W.Block
E.Block
242 Mt
28 Mt
453 Mt
151 Mt
14Mt
144 Mt
6Mt
327 Mt
102 Mt
298 Mt
112 Mt
12Mt
RESOURCES
RESERVES
Kitadin-Embalut
Total Reserves: 417 Mt
Total Resources: 1,627 Mt
146 Mt
9Mt
Bharinto
Note: * Updated Coal Resources and Reserves as of 31 Dec 2011 is based on estimates prepared by Competent Persons (considered suitably experienced under the JORC Code) & technical studies and audits conducted by the following international coal mining consulting companies
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Income Statement
Unit: US$ thousand FY11 FY10 YoY%
Net Sales 2,381,875 1,644,650 45%Gross Profit 892,068 518,053 72%GPM 37% 31%SG&A (185,153) (155,145) EBIT 706,915 362,908 95%EBIT Margin 30% 22%EBITDA 763,947 415,659 84%EBITDA Margin 32% 25%Net Interest Income / (Expenses) 4,684 2,179 FX Gain / (Loss) 639 5,131 Derivative Gain / (Loss) 34,304 (54,091) Others (16,604) (38,773) Profit Before Tax 729,938 277,354 163%Income Tax (183,812) (73,203) Net Income 546,126 204,151 168%Net Income Margin 23% 12%
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Income Statement
Unit: US$ thousand 4Q11 3Q11 4Q10 QoQ% YoY%
Net Sales 733,123 678,440 439,655 8% 67%Gross Profit 285,596 265,624 108,443 8% 163%GPM 39% 39% 25%SG&A (65,788) (46,814) (43,894) EBIT 219,808 218,810 64,549 0% 241%EBIT Margin 30% 32% 15%EBITDA 234,566 232,773 76,442 1% 207%EBITDA Margin 32% 34% 17%Net Interest Income / (Expenses) 2,035 1,354 1,257 FX Gain / (Loss) (1,222) (2,756) 617 Derivative Gain / (Loss) 37,180 (7,698) (38,303) Others (9,346) (1,913) (3,987) Profit Before Tax 248,455 207,797 24,133 20% 930%Income Tax (63,539) (51,917) (5,846) Net Income 184,916 155,880 18,287 19% 911%Net Income Margin 25% 23% 4%