ivane javaxisvilis saxelobis tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti · 2015-10-20 · 5 gamokveta, mati...

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifouniversiteti

ekonomikisa da biznesis fakulteti

oTar abesaZe

evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos ekonomikuri inტegraciis

statistikuri analizi

disertacia

ekonomikis doqtoris akademiuri xarisxis mosapoveblad

samecniero xelmZRvaneli:

profesori qeTevan marSava

Tbilisi

2015

2

Sinaarsi

Sesavali..............................................................................................................................................................................3

Tavi I. evrointegracia da evropis samezoblo politika............................................13

1.1 evrointegraciis arsi da misi ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi.......................13

1.2 evropis samezoblo politika da misi gavlena saqarTvelos

ekonomikur ganviTarebaze........................................................................................................21

1.3 evropuli Rirebulebebisaken swrafvis istoriuli aspeqtebi........36

Tavi II. saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis statistikuri

Seswavlis meTodebi da aRricxvis ZiriTadi problemebi .................................43

2.1 sagareo seqtoris statistikis warmoebis meTodologiuri

principebi ..................................................................................................................................................43

2.2 sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri aRricxvis ZiriTadi

meTodebi ......................................................................................................................................................50

2.3 saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis

statistikuri aRricxvis problemebi da maTi gadaWris

gzebi................................................................................................................................................................65

Tavi III. saqarTvelos evropis bazarze integraciis ekonomikur-

statistikuri analizi da prognozireba............................................................................77

3.1 evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos savaWro urTierTobebis

statistikuri analizi.................................................................................................................77

3.2 saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis geografiuli mimarTulebebi........101

3.3 saqarTvelos sagareo valis statistikuri analizi ..............................112

3.4 pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Tanamedrove tendenciebi

saqarTveloSi ........................................................................................................................................122

3.5 evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis

ZiriTadi maCveneblebis grZelvadiani prognozebis

gaangariSeba.............................................................................................................................................136

3.6 `evropuli konvergentuli~ kriteriumebi da saqarTvelos

evrokavSirSi gaerTianebis mosalodneli tendenciebi ........................159D

daskvna...................................................................................................................................................................................171

gamoyenebuli litaratura..............................................................................................................................181

danarTebi...........................................................................................................................................................................191

3

Sesavali

Temis aqtualoba. saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done

mniSvnelovnadaa damokidebuli danarCen msofliosTan mis

kavSirurTierTobebze, radgan mimdinare integraciuli procesebis fonze

gaizarda qveynebis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis doneebis erTmaneTze gavlenis

xarisxi. amitom metad mniSvnelovania statistikuri meTodebiT qveynis

sagareo ekonomikuri mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis tendenciebis Seswavla,

amis safuZvelze ki prognozebis gaangariSeba. udavod didia am meTodebis

mniSvneloba erovnuli ekonomikis SefasebisaTvis, miT ufro Tanamedrove

pirobebSi Rrma da yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis formirebis procesSi,

rodesac movlenaTa analizis dros gamoiyeneba kvlevis raodenobrivi

meTodebi. es arcaa gasakviri, vinaidan dRes, ekonomikuri movlenebis

mecnieruli kvleva da mis safuZvelze argumentirebuli daskvnebisa da

rekomendaciebis SemuSaveba warmoudgenelia maTematikur-statistikuri

meTodebisa da kompiuterul mecnierebaTa Tanamedrove miRwevebis

gamoyenebis gareSe. maTi gamoyenebis mniSvneloba kidev ufro izrdeba,

rodesac saqme exeba saqarTvelos evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis

Sefasebas, sagareo savaWro urTierTobebis maCvenebelTa analizsa da

dinamikaSi misi saprognozo maCveneblebis gaangariSebas.

integraciuli procesebis gaRrmavebis Tanamedrove donisa da

masStabebis pirobebSi, ekonomikuri movlenebisa da procesebis ganviTarebis

strategiis arCevisas erT-erTi mTavari faqtori swori statistikuri

Sefasebebia. Sesabamisi informaciis ararseboba niSnavs ucvleli garemos

molodins, an molodins imisas, rom movlenaTa ganviTarebis Semdeg jer

kidev iqneba sakmarisi dro moqmedebisaTvis. cxadia, momavlis perspeqtivebis

gansazRvra SeuZlebeli iqneba, Tu mimdinare periodisaTvis ar iqneba

movlenebis ganviTarebis amsaxveli statistikuri informacia da maTi

Sesabamisi analizi. swored, aq vlindeba statistikuri informaciis

saimedoobis mniSvneloba. amasTan, integraciuli procesebis

cvlilebebisadmi swori molodini saWiro resursebis gamoZebnisa da

adekvaturi regulaciebis saSualebas iZleva. sagareo vaWrobis

sakiTxebisadmi aseTi damokidebulebis Camoyalibebam gamoiwvia

4

gansakuTrebuli interesi statistikuri meTodebiT sagareo vaWrobis

mecnieruli Seswavlisadmi. qveyanaSi mimdinare evrointegraciuli

procesebis masStabebma da evropuli Rirebulebebisadmi ltolvam,

socialur-ekonomikuri cxovrebis cvlilebebma, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

tempebma da gamovlenilma tendenciebma moiTxova saerTaSoriso

meTodologiis Sesabamisad evrointegraciuli procesebis amsaxveli

statistikis Teoriuli sakiTxebis axleburad gaazreba da saerTaSoriso

gamocdilebis safuZvelze praqtikasTan Tavsebadi, statistikis sferoSi

msoflioSi aprobirebuli mecnierulad dasabuTebuli, meTodologiuri

aparatis Camoyalibeba.

dRes, rodesac saqarTvelos sagareo interesebSi mowinave evropuli

faseulobebisa da gamocdilebis gaziareba Sedis, gansakuTrebiT

aqtualuria erovnuli statistikis ,,modernizebis“ sakiTxi, romlis

Tanmdevi procesia „asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis“ im ZiriTadi

parametrebis implementacia, romelsac miekuTvneba: erovnuli statistikis

sistemis SesaZleblobebis ganviTareba drouli, saerTaSoriso doneze

Sedarebadi da saimedo statistikuri monacemebis uzrunvelyofis gziT. es

obieqturad gardauvali da Seuqcevadi procesia, radgan msoflio

ekonomikis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi tendenciebis gamosavlenad, saqarTvelos

evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis sferoSi Teoriuli da praqtikuli

xasiaTis gamokvlevebis Casatareblad, argumentirebuli, mecnierulad

dasabuTebuli daskvnebis gamosatanad wina planze wamoiwia saqarTvelos

evrokavSirTan integraciuli procesebis amsaxveli ,,xarisxiani”

oficialuri statistikuri monacemebis arsebobam. es sakiTxi aqtualuria

gansakuTrebiT dRes, radgan ukve gardauvalia am mimarTulebiT arsebuli

statistikis srulyofa saerTaSoriso standartebTan maqsimaluri

harmonizaciis uzrunvelsayofad. Ees ki pirdapir moiTxovs

evrointegraciuli procesebis adekvaturi sando statistikis arsebobas,

radgan qveynis swori sagareo ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis

saWiroa sxva qveynebTan sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis raodenobrivi

Seswavla, maTi statistikuri analizi da prognozireba. aqedan gamomdinare,

aRniSnul sferoSi arsebuli informaciuli uzrunvelyofis problemebis

5

gamokveTa, maTi statistikuri Seswavla da Sefaseba drouli, aucilebeli

da metad aqtualuri problemaa.

evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris Rrma da yovlismomcveli

Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis Seqmnas udidesi, SeiZleba iTqvas sasicocxlo

mniSvneloba gaaCnia saqarTvelis ekonomikuri ganviTarebisaTvis, vinaidan

is xels Seuwyobs: evrokavSiris bazarTan Tavsebadi savaWro sistemis

formirebas, sainvesticio garemos mimzidvelobis gazrdasa da ucxouri

investiciebis waxalisebas, ucxouri investiciebis stimulirebis Sedegad

axali samuSao adgilebis Seqmnas, qarTuli produqciis

konkurentunarianobis zrdas, qarTuli eqsportis zrdas, qarTuli

produqciis xarisxis gaumjobesebas, ekonomikis zrdis stimulirebasa da

zogadad, saqarTvelos ekonomikur ganviTarebas. Yyovelive amis

paralelurad aucilebelia evrokavSirsa da aRmosavleT partniorobis

qveynebis samTavrobo da kerZo seqtorebis informireba saqarTvelos

ekonomikuri politikis, samewarmeo garemosa da saqarTveloSi

investiciebis ganxorcielebis SesaZleblobebze. sistematurad unda moxdes

Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis

farglebSi warmatebiT ganxorcielebuli reformebis warmoCena.

saqarTvelos ekonomikis gaZlierebis garanti SeiZleba gaxdes

evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciisa da ekonomikuri reformebis

Sesaxeb partnior qveynebTan gamocdilebis gaziareba da amis bazaze

evrokavSiris regulaciebTan daaxloebis mizniT gatarebuli RonisZiebebis

Sesaxeb saqarTvelosa da evrokavSiris biznes-wreebs Soris gamocdilebis

gaziareba. cxadia, aucilebelia ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis regionuli

ganzomilebis gaZlierebac.

zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, evrointegraciuli procesebisa da mis

farglebSi saqarTvelos ekonomikur ganviTarebaze evropis samezoblo

politikis gavlenis Sefasebas, udidesi mniSvneloba gaaCnia. aqedan

gamomdinare, sagareo seqtoris Sesaxeb drouli da saimedo statistikuri

monacemebis arseboba aucilebeli pirobaa procesebis mravalmxrivi

analizisaTvis, rogorc qveynis, ise globalur doneze.

miuxedavad imisa, rom evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis

sakiTxebi mravali mecnieris kvlevis sagans warmoadgens, Tanamedrove

6

etapze gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania am procesebis ekonomikur-

statistikuri analizi da amis safuZvelze realuri tendenciebis

gamovlena da ZiriTadi kanonzomierebis dadgena. evrokavSiris qveynebTan

sagareo vaWrobis Teoriuli da praqtikuli sakiTxebisadmi mzardi

interesi Sedegia evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis

Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis gaformebisa, romlis moTxovnebic etapobrivad

realizdeba saqarTveloSi, rac Seuqcevadi procesia da Tavis mxriv

asocirebis xelSekrulebis mTavari da ganuyofeli nawilia. Rrma da

yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrce pirvel rigSi iTvaliswinebs evrokavSiris

qveynebTan aqtiuri savaWro-ekonomikuri kavSirebis damyarebas, erovnuli

warmoebis saqonlis eqsportis stimulirebis gazrdis xelSewyobiT.

evropasTan ekonomikuri inegraciis intensiurad mzardi da Rrma

procesebis fonze sul ufro izrdeba statistikis roli da mniSvneloba

qveyanaSi mimdinare movlenebis realuri asaxvisa da tendenciebis

gamovlenisaTvis. es ki TavisTavad oficialuri statistikis ganviTarebas,

srulyofas da saerTaSoriso standartebTan maqsimalur harmonizacias

moiTxovs.

dRes, saqarTvelos evropasTan mimdinare ekonomikuri integraciis

fonze, TvalsaCino xdeba statistikuri aRricxvis ZiriTadi problemebi,

romelTa daZleva statistikis erovnul samsaxurs axali gamowvevebis

winaSe ayenebs. zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, sadisertacio Temis aqtualoba

udavoa.

kvlevis mizani da amocanebi. sadisertacio naSromis ZiriTadi mizania

evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos ekonomikuri integraciis statistikuri

analizi da misi ZiriTadi parametrebis grZelvadiani prognozireba,

ekonomikuri integraciis procesebis aRricxvis problemebis gamovlena da

misi srulyofis mimarTulebebis gansazRvra. Ddetalurad miznis

identifikacia gulisxmobs:

evrointegraciis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis gansazRvras;

saqarTveloSi evropis samezoblo politikis ganxorcielebis

etapebis daxasiaTebas;

sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri aRricxvis ZiriTadi principebisa da

meTodebis daxasiaTebas;

7

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis warmoebis problemis gamokveTasa da

gamomwvevi mizezebis dadgenas;

evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo vaWrobis sasaqonlo struqturisa da

geografiuli mimarTulebebis gansazRvras;

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis statistikur analizs;

sagareo valis statistikur analizs;

evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos savaWro urTierTobebis

raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebis gansazRvras;

evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTadi

maCveneblebis grZelvadiani prognozebis gaangariSebas;

evrokavSirSi gaerTianebis mosalodneli tendenciebis gamovlenas.

aRniSnuli miznebis misaRwevad saWiroa Semdegi amocanebis gadawyveta:

evrointegraciis arsisa da evrokavSiris Seqmnis istoriuli

aspeqtebis ganxilva;

evropis samezoblo politikisa da aRmosavleT partniorobis

farglebSi uSualod vaWrobasTan dakavSirebuli amocanebis

gamoyofa da maTi detaluri daxasiaTeba;

sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis zogadi da specialuri sistemis

daxasiaTeba, ZiriTadi gansxvavebebisa da msgavsebis dadgena;

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis Tanamedrove tendenciebis gamovlena;

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis analizi;

sagareo valis statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos ekonomikuri integraciis

raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebis gaangariSeba dinamikaSi da maTi

analizi;

sagareo vaWrobis droiTi mwkrivebis maCveneblebis mosworeba da

prognozebis gaangariSeba;

saqarTvelos saeqsporto produqciis evropis bazarze SeRwevis

statistikuri analizi;

sagareo vaWrobis droiTi mwkrivebis mosworeba da prognozebis

8

gaangariSeba sxvadasxva statistikuri meTodiTa da kompiuteruli

programa Eview-6-is gamoyenebiT;

ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri maCveneblis – mSp-s mixedviT evrokavSiris

qveynebis reitinguli klasifikaciis gaanalizeba da saqarTveloSi

gamovlenili tendenciebis grZelvadiani prognozireba

kvlevis sagani da obieqti. winamdebare kvlevis sagans warmoadgens

evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos ekonomikuri integraciis raodenobrivi

maxasiaTeblebi, xolo kvlevis obieqtia evrokavSiris qveynebTan

ekonomikuri integraciis ZiriTadi tendenciebi 2008-2014 wlebSi.

kvlevis Teoriuli da meTodologiuri safuZvlebi. Kkvlevis Teoriul

safuZvels warmoadgens qarTvel da ucxoel mecnier-ekonomistebis Sromebi

aRniSnul TematikasTan dakavSirebiT. maT Soris aRsaniSnavia v. papava, a.

silagaZe, s. gelaSvili, b. gabiZaSvili, q. marSava, i. mesxia, g. RaRaniZe,

T.Sengelia, l. yorRanaSvili, m. xmalaZe, n. aslamaziSvili, l. Zebisauri, g.

TodraZe, r. futkaraZe, n. faresaSvili, T. beruCaSvili, T. yandaSvili, e.

lekaSvili, n. papaCaSvili, i. gogoriSvili, da sxvebi. naSromSi

gamoyenebulia sadisertacio TemasTan dakavSirebuli mravali qarTuli da

ucxouri literatura, normatiuli aqtebi, saerTaSoriso organizaciebis

meTodologiuri xasiaTis rekomendaciebi da saxelmZRvaneloebi, empiriuli

statistikuri monacemebi, internet resursebidan moZiebuli masalebi.

kvlevis meTodologiur safuZvels warmoadgens sagareo vaWrobis,

sagareo valisa da investiciebis statistikis warmoebis Sesaxeb

gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikis ganyofilebis

rekomendaciebi, gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis saxelmZRvanelo

“saqonliT saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika“ (niu iorki, 2004 w.) da

gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis uaxlesi rekomendaciebi „saqonliT

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika, koncefciebi da gansazRvrebebi“ (niu

iorki, 2011 w.). aseve, saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis saxelmZRvaneloebi

“sagareo valis statistika“ (vaSingtoni, 2013 w.) da ,,sagadasaxdelo

balansisa da saerTaSoriso sainvesticio pozicia” (vaSingtoni, 2008 w).

9

kvlevis procesSi gamoyenebulia statistikuri meTodebis mZlavri

aparati, romelic klasificirdeba kerZo da specifikur meTodebad.

induqciis, deduqciis, analizis, sinTezis, dialeqtikis meTodebis

paralelurad intensiurad gamoiyeneba statistikuri dakvirvebis, Tavmoyra-

dajgufebisa da analizis meTodebi. naSromSi statistikuri empiriuli

masalis analizisa da gaangariSebuli sxvadasxva SefardebiTi, saSualo da

variaciuli maCveneblebis TvalsaCino warmodgenisaTvis gamoyenebulia

grafikuli gamosaxvis meTodebi. sagareo vaWrobis droiTi mwkrivebis

doneebis mosworebisaTvis da Semdgom prognozirebisaTvis gamoyenebulia

trendis gamovlenis statistikuri da maTematikuri xerxebi. sagareo

vaWrobis sferoSi mimdinare procesebis dinamikaSi Seswavlis srulyofis

mizniT, gaanalizebul iqna saindeqso meTodis gamoyenebis Taviseburebani,

eqsport-importis fasebis indeqsis agebis meTodologia, rac mTlianobaSi

ayalibebs evrointegraciuli procesebis statistikuri Seswavlis

meTodologias.

naSromis mecnieruli siaxle. naSromi warmoadgens evrokavSirTan

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri integraciis statistikuri kuTxiT qarTul enaze

Sesrulebul erT-erT pirvel gamokvlevas, romlis Sedegadac gamoikveTa

garkveuli mecnieruli siaxleebi, kerZod:

- empiriuli statistikuri monacemebis safuZvelze Seswavlili da

gaanalizebulia evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos ekonomikuri

integraciis maxasiaTebeli uaxlesi tendenciebi, dadgenilia da

gamovlenilia am urTierTobaTa ganviTarebis ZiriTadi

kanonzomierebebi da prioritetuli mimarTulebebi;

- gamokveTilia sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi arsebuli problemebi

da mocemulia am problemebis daZlevis konkretuli RonisZiebebi;

- gaangariSebulia saqarTvelos msoflio ekonomikur sivrceSi

integraciis xarisxis modificirebuli maCvenebeli;

- gamovlenili tendenciebis Sesabamisad, gaangariSebulia

evrokavSiris qveynebTan eqsportis, importis, saeqsporto da

saimporto nakadebSi evrokavSiris wilis grZelvadiani prognozebi

2015-2024 wlebisaTvis. teilis formulis safuZvelze gansazRvrulia

miRebuli saprognozo maCveneblebis verifikaciis xarisxi;

10

- gakeTebulia vrokavSiris qveynebis reitinguli klasifikacia

ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri maCveneblis, mSp-s mixedviT da

gaangariSebulia gamovlenili tendenciebis Sesabamisi grZelvadiani

prognozebi.

- gansazRvrulia saqarTvelos evrokavSirSi gaerTianebis

mosalodneli ekonomikuri tendenciebi.

naSromis praqtikuli mniSvneloba. naSromSi warmodgenili Teoriuli

debulebebi emyareba ara mxolod evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo

ekonomikuri urTierTobis sferoSi mimdinare procesebs, aramed ganixileba

adekvatur statistikur maCvenebelTa sistemis informaciuli bazis

srulyofis RonisZiebebi da perspeqtivaSi saqarTvelos statistikis

erovnul samsaxurSi (saqstati) maTi ganxilvis, danergvisa da Sefasebis

sakiTxebi, rac statistikis Teoriasa da praqtikaSi siaxles warmoadgens.

naSromSi damuSavebul winadadebebsa da rekomendaciebs, TeoriulTan

erTad praqtikuli mniSvnelobac gaaCniaT, radgan isini warmoadgenen

praqtikuli TvalsazrisiT savsebiT realizebads da SesaZlebelia maTi

ganxorcieleba saqstatis Sesabamis eqspertebTan da ekonomistebTan erTad

erToblivi ganxilvis safuZvelze. rekomendaciebis realizacia aamaRlebs

evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis statistikis informaciuli

uzrunvelyofis xarisxs da ganapirobebs monacemTa Sesadarisobas

saerTaSoriso doneze.

naSromis praqtikul Rirebulebas kidev ufro mniSvnelovans xdis

sagareo vaWrobis sferoSi SemuSavebuli da Camoyalibebuli

rekomendaciebi, romelTa gaTvaliswineba saqstatis informaciuli bazis

srulyofas Seuwyobs xels, rac saboloo jamSi statistikis modernizebas

ganapirobebs. amis misaRwevad aucilebelia ganxorcieldes sabaJo

deklaraciebis srulfasovani Sevseba, kerZod: qveynebis, 11-niSna doneze

saqonlis kodebis, Rirebulebis miTiTebiT, satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciaSi

saqonlis warmoSobis qveynis srulyofilad dafiqsirebiT, aucilebelia

saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis mier specdaniSnulebis tvirTisa da

diplomatiuri tvirTebis zustad aRricxvis uzrunvelyofa, saWiroa

srulyofil iqnes Sss-is momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebi, sagareo

vaWrobis saerTaSoriso meTodologiis rekomendaciebis srulad danergvis

11

mizniT moxdes biznes registrisa da sagareo vaWrobis monacemTa bazebis

Sedareba da urTierTdakavSireba, srulyofil iqnas eqsport-importis

fasebis informaciuli baza, ganxorcieldes eqvsniSna doneze produqciis

mixedviT indeqsebis gaangariSeba, rac klasifikatorebis Sesabamisi

detaluri konvertoris (HS-NACE) arsebobas moiTxovs, mizanSewonilia

qarTul enaze SemuSavdes klasifikatorebi.

naSromSi miRebuli Sedegebi da rekomendaciebi SeiZleba gamoyenebul

iqnas leqciebis kursis – statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi - SeswavlaSi

da aseve igi mniSvnelovan daxmarebas gauwevs am sakiTxebiT dainteresebul

farTo sazogadoebas. naSromis Teoriul da praqtikul Rirebulebas zrdis

vizualuri efeqtic, rac ukavSirdeba Catarebuli kvlevis Sedegebis

TvalsaCinod warmodgenis formas mravali cxrilisa da diagramis saxiT.

kvlevis Sedegebis aprobacia da publikacia. naSromis ZiriTadi

Sedegebi moxsenda 4 saerTaSoriso samecniero konferencias da gamoqveynda

sxvadasxva publikaciebSi. kerZod, sam recenzirebad JurnalSi da

sazRvargareT gamocemul samecniero Sromebis krebulSi.

1. The dynamics of trade relations with the EU in the background of deep and

comprehensive Free Trade Area. Economics and Management: Challenges and Perspectives:

Collection of scientific articles. - "East West" Association For Advanced Studies and Higher

Education GmbH, Vienna, Austria, 2015;2. saqarTvelos evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis statistikuri

aRricxvis problemebi da maTi srulyofis gzebi. Jurnali ,,ekonomika.” # 1-

2 Tb., 2015;

3. evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTadi

maCveneblebis prognozireba. Jurnali, ,,ekonomisti.”#1 Tb., 2015;

4. evropis bazarze saqarTvelos ekonomikuri integraciis

statistikuri analizi. Jurnali, ,,axali ekonomisti”#1 Tb., 2015;

5. evropis samezoblo politikis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi. Ppaata

guguSvilis saxelobis ekonomikis institutis saerTaSoriso samecniero

konferenciis masalebi Tb., 2014;

12

6. The main trends of transformation of foreign trade in Georgia. Collection of scientific

articles of International Scientific –Practical Conference “Business Administration and Corporate

Social Responsibility” Baky. Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan State Economic University. 2014;

7. saqarTvelos evroinetgraciuli procesebis ekonomikur-

statistikuri analizi. iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universitetis saerTaSoriso samecniero konferenciis ,,globalizacia da

statistika” samecniero Sromebis krebuli. Tb., 2014.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri aRricxvis srulyofis rekomendaciebi

mowonebulia saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris

xelmZRvanelobis mier. naSromi aprobirebulia iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis

Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikisa da socialuri

statistikis kaTedraze, sadac igi mowonebul da rekomendebul iqna sajaro

dacvisaTvis.

naSromis moculoba da struqtura. sadisertacio naSromi Sedgeba

Sesavlis, sami Tavis, Tormeti qveTavis, daskvnisa da gamoyenebuli

literaturisagan. is, sadisertacio naSromisTvis wayenebuli teqnikuri

moTxovnebis Sesabamisad, moicavs kompiuterze awyobil 190 gverds.

warmodgenilia 30 cxrili, 49 grafikuli gamosaxuleba. naSroms Tan axlavs

danarTebi da gamoyenebuli literaturis sia 155 dasaxelebiT.

13

Tavi I. evrointegracia da evropis samezoblo politika

1.1 evrointegraciis arsi da misi ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi

dRes, evrokavSiri didi ekonomikuri da politikuri Zalaa, romelsac

mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs Tanamedrove msoflios saerTaSoriso

urTierTobebSi, radgan miRweuli Sedegebis TvalsazrisiT is warmoadgens

iseT integraciul organizacias, romlis srulfasovani analogi

msoflioSi ar Seqmnila.

evropis kavSiri SemoklebiT evrokavSiri, evropis saxelmwifoTa

msxvili politikuri da ekonomikuri gaerTianebaa, romelsac 1993 wlamde

evropuli Tanamegobroba erqva. amJamad misi wevria evropis 28 saxelmwifo,

romelTa saerTo farTobia 4,324 aTasi kv. km, mosaxleoba – 501 mln. kacs

aWarbebs.

marTalia gasuli aTaswleulis ganmavlobaSi evropa danawevrebuli

iyo, magram idea misi gaerTianebis Sesaxeb mudam arsebobda. Tu Tvals

gadavavlebT istorias evropis teritoriaze, evrokavSiris masStabebis

Sesadari erTiani saxelmwifo gaerTianebebi arsebobda dasavleT romis

imperiis, frankebis saxelmwifosa da saRvTo romis imperiis saxiT. Semdeg

amerikuli revoluciis Semdeg gaCnda idea evropis SeerTebuli Statebis

Sesaxeb, romelic xelaxla gacocxlda meore msoflio omis Semdeg.

marto me-20 saukunis pirvel naxevarSi evropam ori msoflio omi

gadaitana, ramac qveynebis umravlesobas milionobiT adamianis msxverpli,

dangreuli qalaqebi, daSlili ekonomika, moSlili komunikaciebi moutana.

evropis saxelmwifoebSi TandaTan gaCnda idea evropis gaerTinebisa da

erTmaneTs Soris mWidro TanamSromlobisa, rasac mohyveboda ekonomikuri

da politikuri integracia, mSvidoba da usafrTxoeba.

evropuli gaerTianeba bevri evropeli mwerlis, filosofosisa da

moazrovnis warmosaxvaSi arsebobda. 1795 wels, germanelma filosofosma,

emanuel kantma, Tavis eseSi ,,samoTxiseuli mSvidobisaken“ miuTiTa evropis

qveynebis federaciaze, romlis daniSnulebac iqneboda mSvidobis

uzrunvelyofa. kantis mizani iyo evropis qveynebs Soris mSvidobis

damyareba, amitomac wamoayena winadadeba nebayoflobiTi federaciis

14

Sesaxeb. 1849 wels, frangi mwerali, viqtor hiugo, werda: ,,dadgeba dRe,

rodesac am kontinentis yvela eri, sakuTari individualurobis daTmobis

gareSe, mWidro gaerTianebad Seikvreba da did evropul Zmobas daudebs

safuZvels. dadgeba dRe, rodesac aRar iarsebebs sabrZolo veli, garda

bazrisa (romelic ixsneba vaWrobisaTvis) da sulierebisa (romelic ixsneba

ideebisaTvis). dadgeba dRe, rodesac tyviebsa da bombebs Secvlis xmis

misacemad gamzadebuli biuletinis qaRaldebi.“ 1925 wels, safrangeTis

sagareo saqmeTa ministrma, aristid briandma, italiis zRvispira patara

qalaq lokarnos samSvidobo paqtis dadebisas Tqva: ,,aq, lokarnoSi Cven

vsaubrobT evropulad, es aris axali ena, romelsac swavla sWirdeba.1

didi britaneTis lideri u. CerCili winaswarmetyvelebda ,,evropis

SeerTebuli Statebis“ Seqmnas, rodesac gamoTqva mosazreba gaerTianebuli

da demokratiuli ,,didi evropis“ Seqmnis Sesaxeb.

SemdgomSi frangma Jan monem, romelic fiqrobda, rom rkina da

qvanaxSiri iyo aucilebeli yvela qveynisaTvis usafrTxoebis

gaZlierebisaTvis, wamoayena winadadeba dainteresebuli qveynebis mier

foladisa da qvanaxSiris erToblivad warmoebis Sesaxeb. safrangeTis

sagareo saqmeTa ministris robert Sumanis (1948-1952w.w. SemdgomSi ukve

evroparlamentis prezidenti 1958-1960 w.w) iniciativiT ganxorcielda

germaniis, safrangeTis, belgiis, italiis, luqსemburgisa da niderlandebis

SeTanxmeba foladisa da qvanaxSiris warmoebis gaerTianebis Sesaxeb.

amitom, evropuli gaerTianebis pirvel damfuZnebel dokumentad iqca

parizis 1951 wlis xelSekruleba evropis qvanaxSirisa da foladis

gaerTianebis dafuZnebis Sesaxeb. am gaerTianebis mizani iyo Tavisi

saqmianoba ganexorcielebina viwro specialur dargebSi _

qvanaxSirmompovebel da foladsasxmel mrewvelobaSi, Sedegad am dargebSi

iqmneboda erTiani ekonomikuri sivrce, romelsac `qvanaxSirisa da foladis

saerTo bazari~ ewodeboda. xelSekruleba ratificirebul iqna wevri

saxelmwifoebis mier da 1952 wlis 10 agvistos umaRlesma organom Jan mones

xelmღvanelobiT bina daido luqsemburgSi. marTalia parizis

1 evrokavSiris politika da institutebi. kaxa gogolaSvil sergi kapanaZis red.GTb., 2006.

gv. 11.

15

xelSekrulebis Semdeg iyo mcdeloba, rom am gaerTianebis principebi

samxedro da zogad politikur sferoebSic gadaetanaT, Mmagram es

mcdelobebi uშedegod damTavrda da maTi gamoyeneba mxolod ekonomikur

sferoze gavrcelda.

zemoTaRniSnuli am evropuli gaerTianebisaTvis metad mniSvnelovani

iyo 1957 weli, rodesac parizis xelSekrulebis monawile qveynebi

SeTanxmdnen, SeeqmnaT kidev erTi dargobrivi organizacia _ evropis

atomuri energiis gaerTianeba (evratomi), mSvidobiani miznebisTvis atomuri

energiis erToblivad aTvisebis mizniT MmniSvnelovania gadawyvetileba

urTierTSoris SeeqmnaT srulfasovani `saerTo bazari~.Aam gadawyvetilebis

logikuri gagrZeleba iyo aRniSnul eqvs wevr saxelmwifos Soris 1957 wels

romis ori xelSekrulebis gaformeba: pirveli es aris xelSekruleba

evropis ekonomikuri gaerTianebis dafuZnebis Sesaxeb da meore,

xelSekruleba evropis atomuri energiis gaerTianebis dafuZnebis Sesaxeb.2

swored, romis xelSekrulebebi iqca im mniSvnelovan wyaroebad, romelTa

safuZvelzec ganviTarda შemdgomSi evropuli integracia. is Seiqmna saerTo

bazris formirebisaTvis. maTi ZalaSi Sesvlis paralelurad, gaCnda

termini ,,evropis gaerTianebebi~ (an ,,gaerTianebebi~). igi aRniSnavda

integraciuli tipis sam erTgvarovan organizacias, erT gaerTianebaSi,

romelsac 1979 welsE evropuli gaerTianeba, xolo 1992 wlidan ki -

evrokavSiri ewodeba.

evropis ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis Seqmnam gansazRvra integraciis

strategia. SemoRebul iqna erTiani politika, gansakuTrebiT soflis

meurneobisa da vaWrobis sferoebSi SesaZlebeli gaxda samuSao Zalis,

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Tavisufali gadaadgileba. 1968 wlis 1 ivliss

ki mTlianad gauqmda damfuZnebel qveynebs Soris sabaJo gadasaxadi.

zemoT aRniSnuli sami evropuli gaerTianebis miznebis erTianobidan

gamomdinare ganxorcielda maTi erTian integraciul organizaciad

gardaqmna da 1967 wlidan Seiqmna: evropis gaerTianebebis sabWo,

evropis gaerTianebebis asamblea, evropis gaerTianebebis komisia da evropis

gaerTianebebis sasamarTlo.

2 Хартли Т.К- Основы права Европейского сообщества,Москва=Будапешт, 1998, стр.3.

16

1960-iani wlebis bolos evropis gaerTianebebis wevri saxelmwifoebi

Seecadnen gadasuliyvnen erTian `ekonomikur da savaluto kavSirze~, rac

gulisxmobda misi wevri qveynebis ekonomikuri politikis mWidro

koordinaciasa da 1980 wlisaTvis TviT erTiani fuladi erTeulis

SemoRebas. Mmagram im droisaTvis ekonomikuri da savaluto kavSiris Seqmna

wevr saxelmwifoebs ar gamouvidaT. amis mizezi gaxda 1970-iani wlebis

msoflio energetikuli da savaluto-ekonomikuri krizisi, rodesac aSkara

iyo aSS-is dolarze damyarebuli breton vudsis msoflio savaluto

sistemis winaaRmdegobebi, ris gamoc dRis wesrigSi dadga evropis

ekonomikuri Tanamegobrobis savaluto stabilurobis dacva.3 1969 wels

haagaSi gamarTul evropis qveynebis Tanamegobrobis samitze arCeul iqna

1980 wlisaTvis savaluto kavSiris realurad amuSavebis gegmis

SemmuSavebeli K komisia luqsemburgis TavmjdomareobiT. verneris gegma

iTvaliswinebda savaluto kavSiris Seqmnas 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi, romelic

miRebul iqna 1971 wlis 22 marts. Tumca, misi ganxorcieleba ver moxerxda.G

erTiani savaluto kavSiris Seqmnis Semdeg mniSvnelovan etapad

iTvleba germaniis iniciativa, romlis mixedviTac 1979 wels Camoyalibda

evropis savaluto sistema, romelSic gaerTianda 8 qveyana: germania,

safrangeTi, belgia, niderlandebi, luqsemburgi, italia, irlandia da

dania. maTi koleqtiuri valuta iyo `sakalaTo valuta~ _ekiu. rogorc

momavali `evros~ winasaxe. Eekiu -s safuZvelze, funqcionireba daiwyo

savaluto (gacvliTi) kursebis meqanizmma, romelsac unda uzrunveleyo

evropis ekonomikuri gaerTianebis fuladi bazris stabilizacia da

mdgradoba. ekiu Sedgeboda kavSirSi Semavali qveynebis erovnuli

valutebisagan, Tumca masSi SemadgenlobiTi wili ganisazRvreboda qveynis

ekonomikuri siZlieriT da urTierTvaWrobis moculobiT. kvotebi

Semdegnairad nawildeboda: 32,7%-germanuli marka, 20,8%-franguli franki,

11,2%-inglisuri funti,10,2%-holandiuri guldeni, 7,2%-italiuri lira, 8,7%-

belgiuri da luqsemburguli franki, 4,2%-espanuri peseta, 2,7%-daniuri

krona, 1,1%-itlandiuri funti, 0,7%-portugaliuri eskudo da 0,5%-berZnuli

3 futkaraZe r. saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs savaWro-ekonomikuri urTierTobebi:problemebi da

perspeqtivebi.Tb., 2010, gv.25.

17

drami. Mmoqmedi meqanizmi evropuli sabWos qveynebis gacvliTi kursis

cvlilebas zRudavda 2,25 –dan araumetes 15%-mde. Eekiu warmoadgenda

evropis erovnul valutebze damyarebul gadaxdis xelovnur saSualebas,

romlis Rirebuleba gaiangariSeboda e.w. savaluto kalaTis safuZvelze.4

evros mimoqcevaSi gaSveba etapobrivad ganxorcielda. unaRdo

angariSsworebiT is 1999 wlis 1 ianvridan arsebobs. imave wels evropis

savaluto sistemis wevri qveynebis mier miRebul iqna gadawyvetileba naRdi

evros banknotebis teqnikuri maCveneblebis Sesaxeb da daiwyo misi beWdva.

evro naRdi fulis saxiT mimoqcevaSi 2002 wlis 1 ianvridan Semovida.

erTiani valutis SemoReba udavod uprecendento faqti iyo, radgan aseT

mizans drois mokle periodSi verc erTma integraciulma dajgufebam ver

miaRwia.

70-ian wlebis dasawyisidan gaaqtiurda qmedebebi ekonomikur, sagareo-

politikur da samarTaldamcav sferoebSi wevri saxelmwifoebis yvela

proeqtis erT mTlian konstruqciaSi gaerTianebis mimarTulebiT `evropis

kavSiris~ saxelwodebiT. Aamis logikuri dasasruli iyo 1992 wels evropis

kavSiris Sesaxeb xelSekrulebis dadeba, romelsac win uZRoda ,,1986 wlis

erTiani evropuli aqtis” xelmowera.

gaerTianebebis wevri saxelmwifoebis 1989-1991 wlebSi gamarTuli ori

samTavrobaTSoriso konferenciis muSaobis Sedegi iyo 1992 wlis

xelSekruleba evropis kavSiris Sesaxeb (maastrixtis xelSekruleba).

pirveli konferencia mieZRvna ekonomikuri da savaluto kavSiris Seqmnis

iuridiuli safuZvlebis momzadebas, xolo meore, politikuri sakiTxebis

ganxilvas. evropuli gaerTianebis wevri qveynebis mier 1991 wlis dekemberSi

maastrixtis evropuli sabWos sxdomaze gadawyda kavSiris gaZliereba da

1992 wlis 7 Tebervals xeli moewera xelSekrulebas evrokavSiris Sesaxeb,

romelic ZalaSi Sevida 1993 wlis 1 noembers. am xelSekrulebiT axali

etapi daiwyo savaWro-ekonomikur integraciul procesSi, romlis

dagvirgvinebac erTiani savaluto sivrcis Camoyalibeba iyo. maastrixtis

xelSekrulebis farglebSi iqna gansazRvruli evropis kavSiris Sida

4futkaraZe r .saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs savaWro-ekonomikuri urთierTobebi: problemebi da

perspeqtivebi. Tb., 2010, gv.26.

18

mowyoba, romelsac xSirad sami `sayrdenis~ struqturas uwodebdnen da

romelic karga xnis manZilze (faqtiurad, lisabonis 2007 wlis

xelSekrulebis ZalaSi Sesvlamde, anu 2009 wlis 1 dekembramde) evropis

kavSiris savizito baraTs warmoadgenda.5 2001 wlis 26 Tebervals xeli

moewera nicis xelSekrulebas, romlis mTavari Sedegi iyo fundamentur

uflebaTa qartiis miReba. amas didi mniSvneloba hqonda kavSiris

gafarToebisaTvis instituciuri safuZvlis momzadebisaTvis.

2003 wels xeli moewera ”mierTebis SeTanxmebas,” romelic ZalaSi Sevida

2004 wlis 1 maiss. Aam SeTanxmebebiT gansazRvruli evrokavSiris wevri

saxelmwifoebis samarTlebrivi, politikuri, ekonomikuri da sxva saxis

valdebulebebi Camoyalibda erTian dokumentSi, evrokavSiris konstituciis

proeqtSi. es iyo mcdeloba konstituciis srulyofis mimarTulebiT.

aRniSnulma saqmianobebma gamoiRo Sedegi da 2004 wlis 29 oqtombers,

romSi, 25 wevri qveynis mier xeli moewera evropis konstitucias. evropis

konstitucia es aris saerTo faseulobebis mimarT pativiscemis garantia,

romelic moicavs adamianis Rirsebis, Tavisuflebis, demokratiis,

Tanasworobis, kanonis uzenaesobisa da adamianis uflebebis dacvas.

2007 wlis 21-22 ivniss, miRebul iqna gadawyvetileba imis Sesaxeb, rom

ganxorcielebuliyo konstituciuri reforma, `Zveli~ evropis kavSiris

damfuZnebeli dokumentebis (e.i. evropis kavSiris Sesaxeb 1992 wlis

xelSekrulebis da evropis gaerTianebisa da evroatomis damfuZnebeli 1957

wlis xelSekrulebebis) modernizaciis gziT. 2007 wlis 13 dekembers, es

dokumenti oficialurad iqna xelmowerili evropis kavSiris wevri

qveynebis yvela, ocdasamive oficialur enaze, romlebic Tanabrad

avTenturni arian. misi sruli saxelwodebaa: `lisabonis xelSekruleba

evropis kavSiris Sesaxeb xelSekrulebisa da evropis gaerTianebis

dafuZnebis Sesaxeb xelSekrulebis Secvlis Taobaze~, mokled ki _

`lisabonis xelSekruleba~, romelic ZalaSi 2009 wlis 1 dekembridan

Sevida. araoficialurad mas xSirad uwodeben `xelSekrulebas reformis

5 Ppapava i. evropis kavSiris funqcionirebis samarTlebrivi safuZvlebi. sabaziso aqtebi da

komentarebi. Tbi., 2013, gv.16.

19

Sesaxeb”. lisabonis xelSekrulebam `axali~, `ganaxlebuli~ evropis kavSirs

daudo safuZveli.

evrokavSiris Seqmnis pirvelive dReebidan navaraudevi iyo, rom

evrogaerTianebas TandaTanobiT SeuerTdeboda evropis danarCeni qveynebic.

romis xelSekrulebis 23-e muxlSi naTqvamia: ”evropis nebismier

saxelmwifos SeuZlia gamoTqvas gaerTianebaSi gawevrianebis

survili”.6 magram kavSirSi gasawevrianeblad marto survili araa

sakmarisi. kavSirSi gasawevrianeblad saWiroa, rom saxelmwifom

daakmayofilos evrokavSiris wesdebiT gaTvaliswinebuli

kriteriumebi. kerZod: politikuri da ekonomikuri kriteriumebi da qveynis

mosaxleoba Tanaxma unda iyos gawevrianebaze. politikuri kriteriumebis

mixedviT, wevrobaze ganmcxadebeli qveyana aucileblad unda iyos

demokratiuli mmarTvelobis formis, sakanonmdeblo, aRmasrulebeli da

sasamarTlo xelisufleba kargad unda iyos gamijnuli erTmaneTisagan,

parlamentis saqmianoba unda iyos gamWirvale, sasamarTlo xelisufleba

unda iyos damoukidebeli da qveyanaSi kargad unda iyos daculi adamianis

uflebebi. rac Seexeba ekonomikur kriteriumebs, qveyanas, romelsac surs

gaxdes evrokavSiris wevri qveyana, unda qondes sakmaod Zlieri ekonomika,

raTa daakmayofilos wevrobiT gaTvaliswinebuli movaleobebi. kandidat

qveyanaSi unda SeiniSnebodes ekonomikuri zrda da wevrma qveyanam unda

SeZlos efeqturi konkurenciis gaweva bazarze. amasTan gafarToebis mexuTe

talRam, SemoiRo politikuri da ekonomikuri kriteriumebis garda kidev 2

kriteriumi: pirveli, qveynis unari Seasrulos wevrobidan gamomdinare

valdebulebebi da meore, SeZlos administraciuli struqturebis

adaptireba evrokavSiris administraciul struqturebTan.

daarsebidan moyolebuli dRemde evropis Svidi gafarToeba

dafiqsirda: pirveli gafarToeba iyo 1973 wels, rodesac eqvsi

damfuZnebeli qveynis warmatebam stimuli misca danias, irlandias da

gaerTianebul samefos, raTa gawevrianebuliyvnen evropul TanamegobrobaSi.

maTi miReba sakmaod didi xnis ganmavlobaSi ixileboda. sakmarisia

6 Ppapava i. evropis kavSiris funqcionirebis samarTlebrivi safuZvlebi - sabaziso aqtebi

da komentarebi. Tbi., 2013, gv.16.

20

aRiniSnos, rom safrangeTma, prezident de golis meTaurobiT, orjer

gamoiyena vetos ufleba (1961 wels da 1967 wels). Tumca, sakiTxi bolos

dadebiTad gadawyda da gaerTianebis wevri qveynebis ricxvi eqvsidan

cxramde gazarda. kavSiris gafarToebas mohyva movaleobebis gaRrmavebac:

socialur, regionul da garemos dacvis sakiTxebSi.

gafarToebis axali talRa ukavSirdeba 1981 wels saberZneTis, xolo

1986 wels espaneTisa da portugaliis SeerTebas. am periods ukavSirdeba

evropuli Tanamegobrobis rolis amaRleba saerTaSoriso arenaze.

sakmarisia aRiniSnos, rom 1975-1989 wlebSi xeli moewera axal

xelSekrulebebs xmelTaSuazRvispireTis samxreT qveynebTan, agreTve,

afrikis, karibisa da wynari okeanis qveynebTan. 1994 wlis aprilSi ki, q.

maraqeSSi GATT-is yvela wevris mier xelmoweriT safuZveli Cauyara WTO-s

_ vaWrobis msoflio organizacias, romlis Semdegac msoflio vaWroba

axal fazaSi Sevida. Tumca 1980-iani wlebis dasawyisis msoflio

ekonomikurma krizisma garkveulad ,,pesimizmis” niSnebi gaaCina

evrogaerTianebis wevr qveynebs Soris, magram 1985 wels Jak deloris

komisiis mier SemuSavebuli e.w. ,,TeTri wignis” safuZvelze, sadac

gaTvaliswinebuli iyo Svidi wlis ganmavlobaSi yvela im teqnikuri da

sagadasaxado barierebis gauqmeba, romlebic dabrkolebas uqmnida

Tanamegobrobis teritoriaze Tavisufal gadaadgilebas, miRebul iqna

gadawyvetileba 1993 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis evrogaerTianebas Seeqmna saerTo

bazari.

1986 wels xelmowerilma da 1987 wlis ivlisidan ZalaSi Sesulma

erTianma evropulma aqtma kidev ufro ganamtkica evrogaerTianebis es

gadawyvetileba da daiwyo amis Sesabamisad kanonmdeblobis srulyofis

saqmianobebi. Kkanonmdebloba, romlis mixedviTac SemoRebul iqna e.w.

,,kvalificirebuli umravlesobis” principi da Sida bazris politikis

sakiTxebze wevr qveynebs CamoerTvaT vetos ufleba, ZalaSi Sevida 1987

wlis 1 ivlisidan.

rigiT meoTxe gafarToeba ganxorcielda 1995 wlis 1 ianvars, rodesac

sami qveyana avstria, fineTi da SvedeTi SeuerTda evrokavSirs. wevrTa

raodenobam 15 Seadgina.

21

mexuTe talRa (2004) yvelaze masStaburi aRmoCnda, radgan maSi

gaerTianda: baaltiispireTis respublikebi - estoneTi, latvia da litva,

aseve, poloneTi, CexeTis respublika, slovakeTi, ungreTi, slovenia,

kviprosi da malta.

2007 wels (meeqvse gafarToeba) evrokavSirs bulgareTi da rumineTi,

xolo 2013 wels (meSvide gafarToeba) xorvatia SeuerTda. evrokavSiris

wevrobis kandidati saxelmwifoebia: TurqeTi, makedonia, islandia, serbeTi.

yofili sabWoTa kavSiris qveynebidan evrokavSirSi gaerTianebis

realur gzas daadgnen aseve ukraina, moldova da saqarTvelo.

2013 wlis 22 ivliss dasrulda molaparakebebi saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs

Soris asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis Rrma da yovlismomcveli

Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis komponentze, xolo 2013 wlis 29 noembers

Rrma da yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis parafireba

ganxorcielda. 2014 wlis 27 ivniss ki xeli moewera asocirebis

xelSekrulebas, romelic nawilobriv 2014 wlis 1 seqtembridan amoqmedda.

saqarTvelosa da evrokavSirs Soris urTierTobis samarTlebriv

safuZvels warmoadgens 1996 wlis 22 aprils q. luqsemburgSi xelmowerili

`SeTanxmeba partniorobisa da TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb~, romelic ZalaSi

Sevida 1999 wlis 1 ivlisidan. mis bazaze Seqmnilia TanamSromlobis

instituciuri meqanizmebi (TanamSromlobis sabWo, TanamSromlobis

komiteti), romlebic uzrunvelyofen saqarTvelosa da evrokavშiris

erToblivi saqmianobis programebis SemuSavebasa da realizebas.

1.2. evropis samezoblo politika da misi gavlena saqarTvelos

ekonomikur ganviTarebaze

evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris urTierToba 1992 wels daiwyo,

rogorc ki saqarTvelom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg damoukidebloba

aRadgina. evrokavSiri erT-erTi pirvelTagani iyo, vinc politikuri

urTierTobebi daamyara da kompleqsuri daxmarebis programebi aamoqmeda

postsabWoTa sivrceSi. 1992-2004 wlebSi evrokavSiri saqarTvelos

daaxloebiT 450 mln evroTi daexmara. swored am periodSi ganxorcielda

22

araerTi teqnikuri, humanitaruli Tu sakvebis usafrTxoebis proeqti, maT

Soris sareabilitacio proeqtebi konfliqtur zonebSi. marTalia

evrokomisiam TbilisSi warmomadgenloba 1995 wels gaxsna, magram

evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos urTierToba ufro intensiuri 2003 wlis

Semdeg gaxda, rodesac evrokavSirma kidev erTxel daadastura

saqarTveloSi mimdinare ekonomikuri, socialuri da politikuri

reformebis mxardaWera. 1996 wels miRebul iqna partniorobisa da

TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba, rac evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos

Soris urTierTobis qvakuTxedad iqca. es SeTanxmeba, romelic 1999 wels

Sevida ZalaSi, Tavdapirvelad aTi wlis vadiT iyo miRebuli, Tumca is

yovel wels, avtomaturad, erTi wliT grZeldeboda. SeTanxmeba moicavda

farTomasStabian TanamSromlobas politikuri dialogis, vaWrobis,

investiciebis, ekonomikuri, sakanonmdeblo da kolturuli TanamSromlobis

sferoebSi.

wlebis ganmavlobaSi evrokavSiris etapobrivma istoriulma

gafarToebam evropis kontinentze usafrTxoebisa da stabilurobis myari

safuZvlebi Seqmna. amis paralelurad ikveTeboda platforma politikuri

mimarTulebis gansazRvrisaTvis axal mezoblebTan urTierTobaSi. Aamis

naTel magaliTs warmoadgenda evropis komisiis (evrokomisia) mier 2003

wlis 11 marts gamoqveynebul komunikeSi - „gafarToebuli evropa _

aRmosavleT da samxreT mezoblebTan urTierTobis axali samarTlebrivi

CarCoebi~, warmodgenili evropuli samezoblo politikis (ENP) koncefcia,

romlis ZiriTadi amocana mezoblebTan axali gamyofi xazebis warmoSobis

prevencia da stabilurobis, keTildReobisa da usafrTxoebis

uzrunvelyofaa.7

evropuli samezoblo politika evrokavSiris axali sagareo politikis

mimarTulebaa, romelic warmoiSva 2004 wlis 1 maiss, evrokavSiris 10

qveyniT (poloneTi, estoneTi, latvia, litva, slovakeTi, CexeTi, slovenia,

kviprosi da malta), xolo 2007 wlis 1 ianvars kidev ori qveyniT (rumineTi

da bulgareTi) gafarToebis Semdeg. evrokavSiris samezoblo politika

7 Sekarevi a. evropuli integraciis procesi: miRwevebi, xarvezebi da gamowvevebi

saqarTveloSi, somxeTsa da azerbaijanSi. Tb., 2013, gv. 58.

23

Tavis mezoblebis evrokavSirTan mWidro politikur da ekonomikur

integracias gulisxmobs, romelic eyrdnoba, demokratiis, adamianis

uflebebis, kanonierebis, Tavisufali bazris principebsa da mdgradi

ganviTarebis Rirebulebebs. Tumca, isic unda aRiniSnos, rom evropuli

samezoblo politika ar iTvaliswinebs evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis

perspeqtivas.

evropuli samezoblo politika Tavdapirvelad 13 qveyanas: belorusias,

moldovas, ukrainas, alJirs, egviptes, israels, iordanias, libans, libias,

marokos, palestinas, sirias da tuniss moicavda. 2004 wlis 14 ivnisis

miRebuli gadawyvetilebiT, mas damatebiT samxreT kavkasiis sami qveyana -

saqarTvelo, somxeTi da azerbaijani unda moecva. saqarTvelosaTvis

evropul samezoblo politikaSi CarTva evrokavSirTan urTierTobebSi

mniSvnelovani wingadadgmuli nabiji iyo.

aRsaniSnavia, rom samezoblo politikaSi CarTuli TiToeuli qveynis

TanamSromlobis prioritetebi am qveynebTan mWidro TanamSromlobის

safuZvelze ganisazRvreba, rac udaod evropuli samezoblo politikis

erT-erT mTavar princips warmoadgens. es Pprioritetebi erToblivad

SemuSavdeba da qveynebis samoqmedo gegmebSi aisaxeba. saqarTvelo-

evrokavSiris samoqmedo gegmis damtkicebis Sesaxeb sabWos rekomendaciebis

teqsts xeli moewera 2006 wlis 14 noembers, briuselSi TiTqmis

weliwadnaxevriani molaparakebebis Semdeg.

evrokavSiri–saqarTvelos samoqmedo gegma, romelic pirveli nabijia

evrokavSirTan urTierTobis procesSi, politikuri dokumentia, romelic

saqarTvelos da evrokavSirs Soris TanamSromlobis strategiul amocanebs

gansazRvravs. is xuTi wlis vadiT iqna SemuSavebuli. samoqmedo gegma

iTvaliswinebda daxmarebas ,,partniorobisa da TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb

SeTanxmebis“ ZiriTadi debulebebis SesrulebaSi da urTierTkavSirebis

damyareba-ganviTarebas TanamSromlobis im axal sferoebSi, rac

ekonomikuri integraciis ufro mniSvnelovan xarisxsa da ufro Rrma

politikur TanamSromlobas ganapirobebda. misi mizani iyo

saqarTvelosTvis mieca stimuli da gaewia daxmareba mis mier dasaxuli

ZiriTadi miznis – evrokavSiris ekonomikur da socialur struqturebSi

24

Semdgomi integrireba–SesrulebisaTvis, agreTve Tavisi kanonmdeblobis

evrokavSiris normebTan da standartebTan daaxloebis mimarTulebiT.

samoqmedo gegmaSi, romelic saqarTvelo-evrokavSiris TanamSromlobis

sabWos mier mowonebis Semdeg saqarTvelosTvis ZalaSi Sevida 2006 wlis 14

noembers, asaxulia partniorebTan SeTanxmebuli aRebuli valdebulebebisa

da misi Sesrulebis Sefasebis kriteriumebi. saqarTvelom samoqmedo gegmiT

aiRo demokratiuli reformebis gatarebis valdebuleba, rac pirvel rigSi

evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis ufro mniSvnelovan xarisxsa da

ufro Rrma politikur TanamSromlobas gulisxmobda. MmniSvnelovania, rom

evropuli samezoblo politikis samoqmedo gegma ganaxlebadi dokumentia,

rac imas niSnavs, rom saqarTvelosa da evrokavSirs Soris urTierTobebis

ganviTarebis Sesabamisad, saqarTveloSi gatarebuli reformebis tempisa da

xarisxis gaTvaliswinebiT SesaZlebelia masSi garkveuli cvlilebebis

Setana.8

unda aRiniSnos, rom evropaSi demokratiis gavrcelebis gziT

stabilurobisa da mSvidobis SenarCuneba-realizebis uzrunvelsayofad

samezoblo politika ver iqca Zlier meqanizmad. procesi aRmoCnda droSi

sakmaod gawelili, rac zogierTi qveynisTvis, maT Soris, saqarTvelosTvis,

problemur da mtkivneul sakiTxs warmoadgenda. isic unda aRiniSos, rom

samezoblo politikaSi ar iyo Cadebuli partniori qveynebis mier

Sesrulebuli reformebis Sefasebis mkafio kriteriumebi Dda ar Canda

mkafio sargebeli, romelic unda mohyoloda samezoblo politikis

farglebSi ganxorcielebul reformebs. aRniSnulma xarvezma ganapiroba,

rom evrokavSiris samezoblo politikis instrumenti gadaiqca regionis

qveynebisTvis sasurveli reformebis ganxorcielebis erT-erT mniSvnelovan

CarCod, nacvlad imisa, rom is gamxdariyo demokratiuli reformebis

damaCqarebeli da srulyofili warmmarTveli Zala. problemis nawili iyo

isic, rom samezoblo politika, rogorc regionuli instrumenti,

saTanadod ver asaxavda im qveynebis ambiciebs, romlebsac evrokavSirTan

ufro swrafi da yovlismomcveli urTierTobis ganviTareba surdaT.9

8 ENP, EU/Georgia action plan, Europaen Commission, 2006, pp. 1-3.9 evrokavSiri da saqarTvelo: mimdinare sakiTxebi da momavlis perspeqtivebi.Tb.,2009, gv. 32-

35.

25

2006 wels noemberSi damtkicebuli evropis samezoblo politikis

samoqmedo gegmiT (ENP AP) TanamSromlobis erT-erT prioritetul

mimarTulebad savaWro urTierTobebis ganviTareba daisaxa. mTavari, rac am

gegmis mixedviT ganisazRvra, iyo am sferoSi qveynis maregulirebeli

CarCos evrokavSiris standartebTan daaxloeba. Tumca, es procesic

gaWianurda, radgan evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizacia da

Sesabamisi praqtikis saqarTveloSi damkvidrebis procesi imaze rTuli

aRmoCnda, vidre es mosalodneli iyo.

samoqmedo gegmiT uSualod vaWrobasTan mimarTebaSi ganisazRvra

amocanebi, romlebic SeiZleba klasificirebul iqnes Semdegi

gansazRvruli TanmimdevrobiT:

pirvels ganekuTvneba evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris ormxrivi

savaWro urTierTobebis ganmtkiceba, maT Soris sargeblis gazrda

”preferenciebis zogadi sistemidan” da amis Sedegad saqarTvelos

saeqsporto saqmianobis gaumjobeseba;

meore gulisxmobs vaWrobis msoflio organizaciis wesebTan

Sesabamisobis monitoringis ganxorcielebas da SesaZleblobebis

ganviTarebas saerTaSoriso vaWrobis sferoSi;

mesame moicavs savaWro da vaWrobasTan dakavSirebuli sxva

SeTanxmebebis dadebas. kerZod, geografiuli warmoSobis maCveneblebis

Sesaxeb (Rvinisa da spirtiani sasmelebis seqtoris CaTvliT) ormxrivi

SeTanxmebis gaformebas da molaparakebaTa gagrZelebas mxareebs

Soris Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebis Taobaze;

meoTxe exeba vaWrobasTan dakavSirebul instituciur cvlilbebs, maT

Soris, vaWrobis sferos muSakebisaTvis importis da eqsportis

wesebisa da procedurebis Sesaxeb regularuli informirebis

meqanizmis Seqmnas.

2008 wlis 19-20 ivniss, evropulma sabWom poloneTisa da SvedeTis mier

warmodgenili erToblivi winadadebis safuZvelze miiRo aRmosavleT

partniorobis iniciativa. xsenebuli iniciativa evropuli sabWos mier 2009

wlis 7 maiss, praRis samitze iqna damtkicebuli. aRniSnuli partniorobis

principebi Tavsdeba evrokavSiris samezoblo politikis farglebSi.

26

aRmosavleT partniorobis miznad ganisazRvra evrokavSiris aRmosavleT

mezoblebTan (saqarTvelo, azerbaijani, belorusi, moldova, somxeTi da

ukraina) TanamSromlobis kidev ufro gaRrmaveba. Tu davakonkretebT,

aRmosavleT partnioroba gulisxmobs axali asocirebis SeTanxmebis

gaformebas, Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro zonis Seqmnis

saSualebiT evrokavSiris ekonomikaSi integrirebis da savizo reJimis

gamartivebis perspeqtivas. aseve, am qveynebSi politikuri da socialur–

ekonomikuri reformebis mxardaWeras.

2009 wels praRis samitze miRebul iqna aRmosavleT partniorobis

deklaracia da oficialurad damtkicda ,,aRmosavleTis partnioroba“,

romelic emyareba ramdenime mniSvnelovani principis mimarT saerTo

erTgulebas: kanonis uzenaesobas, karg mmarTvelobas, adamianTa uflebebis

dacvas, umciresobaTa pativiscemas da dacvas, sabazro ekonomikas, mdgrad

ganviTarebas.10

aRmosavleTis partnioroba mimdinareobs ormxrivi da mravalmxrivi

samuSao formatiT. ormxrivi TanamSromlobis mizania evrokavSirsa da

TiToeul aRmosavleT partniors Soris urTierTobis gaRrmaveba.11 is

moicavs urTierTobebis sxvadasxva mimarTulebebs, rogoricaa - asocirebis

xelSekruleba, vizis liberalizacia usafrTxo garemoSi, ekonomikuri da

socialuri politikis evrokavSirTan daaxloeba, energousafrTxoebis

gaZliereba da a.S.

mravalmxrivi formati ki qmnis TanamSromlobis axal struqturas. amis

sailustraciod SeiZleba moviyvanoT aRmosavleT partniorobis miznebisa

da Rirebulebebis Sesabamisad Seqmnili “TanamSromlobis platformebi”:

demokratiis, efeqturi mmarTvelobisa da stabilurobis, ekonomikuri

integraciisa da evrokavSiris politikasTan Tanxvedris, garemos dacvis,

klimatis cvlilebisa da energousafrTxoebis, adamianebs Soris

kontaqtebis mimarTulebiT.

10 ,,aRmosavleT partnioroba“ da saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri politika- elguja

xokriSvili, evropis samezoblo politika da axali gamowvevebi, 2008, gv. 12.

11 xokriSvili e. dareliSvili n. Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaro sivrce

(DGFTA)evrokavSirTan. Tb., 2013, gv. 57.

27

TiToeul platformas SemuSavebuli aqvs sakuTari miznebi da,

Sesabamisad, samuSao programebi, rac Tavis mxriv aRmosavleT

partniorobis programis efeqtur ganxorcielebas emsaxureba. mravalmxrivi

urTierTobebis farglebSi Tematuri platformebis xelSewyobis mizniT

daigegma aseve panelebi. panelebi gansazRvravs platformebSi

TanamSromlobis miznebis gansaxorcielebel ufro viwro da konkretul

gzebs, RonisZiebebs (mag. programebs, treningebs da a.S.), romelTa

SemuSevebaze mowveuli eqspertebi imuSaveben.12

xom ar aris identuri ,,aRmosavleTis partnioroba“ da evropis

samezoblo politika? ra Tqma unda, ara. jer erTi, aRmosavleTis

partnioroba iZleva ufro ukeTess da ufro zust geografiul fokuss da

aRmosavleTis partniorobis mier SemoTavazebuli axali SesaZleblobebi

ufro konkretuli, ufro praqtikuli da TvalsaCinoa; meore, aRmosavleTis

partniorobas individualuri midgomis ufro maRali xarisxi gaaCnia da

aRmosavleTis partnioroba iZleva energetikuli TanamSromlobis Zalze

detalur samoqmedo gegmas.

garda amisa, aRmosavleTis partnioroba evropis samezoblo

politikasTan SedarebiT mTel rig siaxleebs iTvaliswinebs. Eesenia:

asocirebis xelSekruleba, romelic ekonomikuri integraciis mizniT

evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebas

moicavs, mobilurobisa da usafrTxoebis faqtebi, rac gulisxmobs savizo

reJimis gamartivebas da aseve evrokavSirTan TanamSromlobas korufciis,

organizebuli danaSaulisa da aralegaluri migraciis winaaRmdeg

brZolaSi, yovlismomcveli instituciuri mSeneblobis,

energousafrTxoebis xelSewyobis, garemos dacvisa da klimatTan

dakavSirebul sakiTxebSi da sxv.13

evropis samezoblo politikaSi gamovlenili problemebis daZlevas

emsaxureboda 2011 wlis 24 maiss sagareo da usafrTxoebis politiis

sakiTxebSi evrokavSiris umaRlesi warmomadgenlis qetrin eStonisa da

12 liberaluri akademia. ,,vin vin aris briuselSi saqarTvelosa da samxreT kavkasiaze“,

2012, gv. 32-33.

13 iqve.

28

evrokomisiis mier miRebuli evropis samezoblo politikis axali

dokumenti, romelic sazogadoebis ufro met sferoebs moicavs da

damatebiTi stimulirebis sistemas efuZvneba. Ees evropis axali samezoblo

politika eyrdnoba Semdeg principebs: demokratiis maRali donis miRwevis

mxardaWera, politikur da usafrTxoebis sakiTxebSi TanamSromlobis

gafarToeba, „partnioroba mobilurobisaTvis“ mxardaWera, damatebiTi

finansuri saxsrebis mimarTva prioritetuli sferoebis mixedviT,

aRmosavleTis partniorobis farglebSi partniorebisaTvis asocirebis

xelSekrulebis SeTavazeba. aRniSnulma cvlilebebma nawilobriv

gamoaswora evropis samezoblo politikis naklovani mxareebi.

samoqmedo gegmis ganxorcielebis mniSvneloba didia, radgan is

gamoiwvevs saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobis daaxloebas evrokavSiris

sakanonmdeblo normebTan da standartebTan, rac Seqmnis mtice safuZvels

Semdgomi ekonomikuri integrirebisTvis. integrirebas safuZvlad daedeba

ekonomikasa da vaWrobasTan dakavSirebuli wesebisa da moTxovnebis miReba

da maTi Sesruleba, vaWrobis gaaqtiurebis, meti investiciebis mozidvis da

zogadi zrdis misaRwevad, rac saboloo jamSi politikur stabilurobasa

da ekonomikur winsvlas ganapirobebs.14

udavoa, ,,evropis samezoblo politika” xels Seuwyobs axali tipis

sapartnioro urTierTobebis Seqmnas. gaRrmavdeba savaWro da ekonomikuri

urTierTobebi, Seiqmneba ekonomikuri kanonmdeblobis daaxloebis

winapirobebi, mxareebi erTmaneTis mimarT ekonomikurad ufro gaxsnilebi

gaxdebian, gagrZeldeba vaWrobaSi arasatarifo barierebis Semcireba, rac

investirebasa da ekonomikur zrdas Seuwyobs xels. 15

,,aRmosavleT partnioroba“ axali urTierTobis etapia saqarTvelosa

da evrokavSirs Soris, romlis mniSvnelovani nawilia finansuri aspeqtebi.

praRis deklaraciaSi aRniSnulia, rom finansuri daxmareba mimarTuli

iqneba aRmosavleTis partniorobis miznebis misaRwevad da amasTan

14 Eevropis samezoblo politikis kritikuli Sefaseba. Com (2010). 207, briuseli 12 maisi

2010, gv. 4

15 Petrovic, Milenko, and Malgorzata Klatt. "11. The European Union and its post-communist neighbours: EU

enlargement and the European Neighbourhood Policy." The European Union and Global Engagement: Institutions,

Policies and Challenges 2015, pp. 197.

29

gaiTvaliswinebs individualuri partniori qveynis progress. garda

Tanamegobrobis mier gamoyofili grantisa da Tanadafinansebisa erovnul

doneze, evrokavSiri Seecdeba aseve moizidos damatebiTi dafinanseba sxva

donorebis, saerTaSoriso safinanso organizaceibis da kerZo seqtoris

mxridan. iniciativis farglebSi gansaxorcielebeli proeqtebis

mxardasaWerad Tanamegobroba xels Seuwyobs kerZo da saxelmwifo seqtors

Soris TanamSromlobis gaRrmavebas da amasTan mouwodebs evropis

sainvesticio banks da sxvadsaxva saerTaSoriso donor organizaciebs,

daxmareba aRmouCinon partnior qveynebSi mimdinare modernizaciis process

da SeimuSaon mosaxerxebeli sainvesticio proeqtebi.

evrokomisiis dokumentis Tanaxmad, ,,aRmosavleTis partniorobis“

farglebSi gamoyofili Tanxebi daixarjeba Semdegi miznebisTvis:

institucionaluri mSneblobis mravalmxrivi programebi (daaxloebiT 175

mln evro), regionaluri ganviTarebis piloturi programebi, romlebic

gaTvlilia regionis ekonomikuri da socialuri uTanasworobis sakiTxebze

(daaxloebiT 75 mln evro), ,,aRmosavleTis partniorobis mravalmxrivi

mimarTulebebis ganxorcieleba (daaxloebiT 350 mln evro).16

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, „aRmosavleTis partniorobis“ iniciativis

farglebSi saqarTvelosTvis gamoyofil dafinansebas, is mniSvnelovnad

gaizarda. 2007-2010 wlebSi gamoyofili iyo 120 milioni evro, romelic

samezoblo politikis instrumentis meSveobiT ganxorcielda, 2011-2013

wlebisTvis es Tanxa TiTqmis 50%-iT gaizarda da 180 milion evros miaRwia.

„aRmosavleTis partniorobis“ farglebSi evrokavSiri partniorebs

ormxrivi TanamSromlobis pirobebSi ZiriTad sferoebSi kavSirebis kidev

ufro gaaqtiurebas sTavazobs. amis magaliTia aRmosavleTis partniorobis

farglebSi evrokavSirsa da partnior qveyanas Soris ormxrivi

TanamSormloba Semdegi mimarTulebebiT: Rrma da yovlismomcveli

Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebis (DCFTA) SeTanxmeba da miReba;

16evrokavSiri da saqarTvelo: mimdinare sakiTxebi da momavlis perspeqtivebi. vasil WyoiZe,

aRmosavleT partnioroba-mravalmxrivi TanamSromlobis formati, gv. 89-90

30

gadaadgileba da usafrTxoeba, energetikuli usafrTxoeba, ekonomikuri da

socialuri ganviTarebis mxardaWera.17

Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis SeTanxmeba

saqarTvelos aZlevs saqonlis, momsaxurebis da kapitalis Tavisufali

gadaadgilebis saSualebas, xolo adamianebis Tavisufal gadaadgileba

xelmisawvdomi iqneba savizo reJimis liberalizaciis procesis Sedegad.

amitom, evrokavSirTan asocirebisa da Rrma da yovlismomcveli

Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis gaformebiT, saqarTvelo-

evrokavSirs Soris urTierTobebi Tvisobrivad axal safexurze gadavida,

rac Zalian mniSvnelovania. evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis

mimarTulebiT Tavisufali vaWrobis zona aris saerTaSoriso integraciis

saxeoba, romlis wevrebsac ar ekisrebaT sabaJo gadasaxadebi da

mosakreblebi. maTze ar vrceldeba raodenobrivi SezRudvebic, romelsac

saerTaSoriso SeTanxmebebi aregulirebs. es integraciis ufro Rrma

saxeobaa, vidre preferencialuri SeTanxmebebi. Tavisufali vaWrobis zonis

wevrebi aseve inarCuneben uflebas, Tavad gansazRvron vaWrobis reJimi

mesame qveynebTan. umravles SemTxvevaSi, Tavisufali vaWrobis zonis wesebi

vrceldeba yvela saxis saqonelze, Tumca, zonaSi Semaval qveynebs Soris

arsebobs sabaJo sazRvrebi da postebi, sadac saqonlis warmomavlobas

amowmeben.

uaxloes warsulSi moxda SeTanxmeba „stabilizaciisa da asociaciis

procesis“ da „evropis samezoblo politikis“ farglebSi. pirveli

programa vrceldeba balkaneTis naxevarkunZulis saxelmwifoebze, meore

ki- aRmosavleT evropis qveynebze, maT Soris, samxreT kavkasiazec.

zemoqmulidan gamomdiare, saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs Soris Rrma da

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali vaWrobis sivrcis Camoyalibeba xels Seuwyobs

evrokavSiris bazris moTxovnebTan Tavsebadi savaWro sistemis formirebas,

gamWvirvale, stabiluri biznes garemos Camoyalibebas, saqarTvelos

sainvesticio mimzidvelobisa da Sesabamisad, ucxouri investiciebis zrdas,

qveynis mdgrad ganviTarebasa da bunebrivi resursebis racionalurad

17 ,,aRmosavleT partnioroba“ da saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri politika. elguja

xokriSvili, evropis samezoblo politika da axali gamowvevebi, 2008. gv. 14.

31

gamoyenebas, axali sawarmoebisa da saeqsporto produqciis Seqmnas,

adgilobrivi warmoebis masStabebis zrdis kvalobaze axali samuSao

adgilebis Seqmnas, qarTuli produqciis saeqsporto bazrebis

diversificirebasa da gafarToebas, qarTveli eqsportiorebisTvis

eqsportTan dakavSirebuli xarjebis Semcirebas, qarTveli

momxmareblisTvis usafrTxo da uvnebeli produqtis miwodebas,

inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis uflebis dacvas, saxelmwifo administrirebis

organoebis ganviTarebas evropuli saukeTeso praqtikis Sesabamisad,

zogadad, ekonomikuri zrdis stimulirebasa da qveynis ekonomikur

ganviTarebas: moklevadian perspeqtivaSi mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp)

zrdas 1,7 %-iT, xolo grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi - 4,3 %-iT. moklevadian

perspeqtivaSi eqsportis 9 %-iT, xolo importis 4,4 %-iT, xolo

grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi eqsportis 12 %-iT, xolo importis 7,5%-iT

zrdas.18

2013 wlis dekemberSi, saqarTvelom da evrokavSirma xeli moaweres

partniorobisa da TanamSromlobis SeTanxmebis oqms evrokavSiris

programebSi saqarTvelos monawileobis Sesaxeb CarCo SeTanxmebis Taobaze.

saqarTvelom aseve mniSvnelovan winsvlas miaRwia vizebis gamartivebisa da

readmisiis19 SeTanxmebebis ganxorcielebis gzaze da ganagrZo reformebis

ganxorcieleba usafrTxo garemoSi mobilurobis uzrunvelyofasTan

dakavSrebul sferoebSi. saqarTvelom evropis samezoblo politikis

ganxorcielebis Sesaxeb 2014 wlis Sualedur angariSSi mocemuli

rekomendaciebis umetesi nawili gaiTvaliswina. yovelive amis Semdeg

saqarTvelom evrokavSirTan asocirebis Sesaxeb xelSekruleba gaaforma.

„saqarTvelo-evrokavSiris asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebas“ oficialurad

ewodeba „asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba erTis mxriv, evrokavSirs da

18 ECORYS და CASE- Research-“Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiation of a DCFTA

between the EU and Georgia and the Republic of Moldova”, 2014;19 ,,unebarTvod mcxovreb pirTa readmisiis Sesaxeb'' SeTanxmeba (SemdgomSi ,,readmisiis

SeTanxmeba) ZalaSi Sevida 2011 wlis pirveli martidan. SeTanxmebis ZiriTadi mizania

TanamSromlobis gaZliereba xelSemkvrel mxareebs Soris ukanono migraciis winaaRmdeg

brZolis sakiTxSi da pirTa usafrTxo dabruneba evropidan saqarTvelos mimarTulebiT, an

piriqiT.

32

evropis atomuri energiis gaerTianebas da maT wevr saxelmwifoebsa da

meores mxriv, saqarTvelos Soris.“ saqarTvelosTvis evrokavSirTan

„asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis“, Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali

vaWrobis sivrcis CaTvliT, gaformebis perspeqtiva gaixsna „aRmosavleT

partniorobis“ iniciativiT.

saqarTvelosa da evrokavSirs Soris asocirebis SeTanxmebis

xelmoweris Semdgomi nabiji parlamentebis mier dokumentis ratifikaciaa.

xelSekrulebis ZalaSi Sesvlamde misi ratificireba evrokavSiris wevri 28

qveynis parlamentebma unda moaxdinos. amJamad es dokumenti 19 qveyanis

mieraa ratificirebuli. 2014 wlis 18 ivliss dokumentis ratificireba

ganxorcielda saqarTvelos parlamentSi, 2014 wlis 18 dekembers ki

strasburgSi, evroparlamentma saqarTvelo-evrokavSiris asocirebis

xelSekrulebis ratifikacia moaxdina.

xelSekrulebis srulad ZalaSi Sesvla 2015 wels aris navaraudevi,

Tumca, ukve 2014 wlis Semodgomaze winmswrebad amoqmedda SeTanxmebis

nawili, maT Soris DCFTA - Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro

sivrcis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba. saqarTvelom da evrokavSirma miiRes

"asocirebis dRis wesrigi", romelic asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebiT

aRebuli valdebulebebis prioritetuli sakiTxebis samwlian (2014-2016)

gegmas warmoadgens.

dReisaTvis saqarTvelo sargeblobs evrokavSiris mxridan calxmrivi

savaWro SeRavaTebiT, e.w. "preferenciaTa ganzogadebuli sistemiT" (GSP +).

am sistemis farlebSi SeTavazebuli SeRavaTebi SezRudulia DCFTAA-sTan

SedarebiT. mas Semdeg, rac DCFTA Caanacvlebs G(GSP +)-s, gauqmdeba

tarifebi TiTqmis yvela produqtze da amasTanave orive mxare gadaWris

maregulirebeli barierebis sakiTxs. es mniSvnelovani gaumjobeseba iqneba

arsebul (GSP +) -Tan SedarebiT, romelic calxmrivi, droebiTi xasiaTisaa

da evrokavSirTan molaparakebebs ar eqvemdebareba.

Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali vaWrobis sivrcis SeTanxmeba

iTvaliswinebs vaWrobasTan dakavSirebuli saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobis

etapobriv daaxlovebas evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan Semdeg sferoebSi:

sanitariuli da fitosanitariuli zomebi, vaWrobaSi teqnikuri barierebi,

33

saxelmwifo Sesyidvebi, sabaJo da momsaxurebiT vaWroba (eleqtronuli

komunikacia, finansuri momsaxureba, transporti, fosta da sakuriero

momsaxureba). aRniSnul sferoebSi daaxlovebis Sedegad saqarTveloSi

Seiqmneba evropuli donis sursaTis uvneblobisa da xarisxis erovnuli

infrastruqturis sistemebi, rac xels Seuwyobs qarTuli sasoflo-

sameurneo da industriuli produqciis Tavisufal ganTavsebas

evrokavSiris bazarze da aseve, adgilobriv bazarze uvnebeli da usafrTxo

produqtis miwodebas. rogorc cnobilia, zogadad, mdgradi

ganviTarebisTvis saWiroa piradi, qonebisa da ZiriTadi saWiroebebis

(sursaTi, TavSesafari, jandacva.) usafrTxoeba. 20

miuxedavad imisa, rom 2012 wlis maisSi saqarTvelos parlamentma miiRo

ori kanoni, romlebic sursaTis uvneblobasa da momxmarebelTa uflebebs

aregulireben, sursaTis uvneblobisa da momxmarebelTa uflebebis dacvis

kuTxiT saqarTveloSi arsebuli mdgomareoba mainc ar gaumjobesebula.

cvlilebebi Sevida kanonSi ,,konkurenciisa da Tavisufali vaWrobis

Sesaxeb“ 2012 wlis aprilSi, Tumca aRniSnuli reformac ver pasuxobs

evrokavSiris ZiriTad moTxovnebs.

2013-2014 wlebSi sagrZnoblad gaizarda sursaTis erovnuli saagentos

mier Catarebuli inspeqtirebis raodenoba. kontroldeba biznes

operatorebis mier sawarmoo procesis yvela standatris maqsimalurad

dacvis SesaZleblobebi. darRvevebis gamovlenis SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba

biznes operatorebis dajarimeba da zogierT SemTxvevaSi xdeba sawarmoo

procesebis SeCerebac. 2014 wels gegmuri inspeqtirebisaTvis SeirCa 2 536

biznesoperatori; aragegmuri inspeqtirebisaTvis Sefasda 502 sawarmo;

saTanado wesiT aRebuli da laboratoriebSi Cabarebuli iyo sursaTis

(m.S. sasmeli wylis) 2911 nimuSi/sinji, romelTa xarisxis parametrebze

laboratoriuli kvlevis Sedegebis mixedviT 837 (28,8%) nimuSi ar

akmayofilebda dadgenil moTxovnebs. laboratoriuli kvlevis SedegebiT

gamovlenili darRvevebis 80% warmoadgenda mikrobiologiuri

maCveneblebis darRvevebs. Mmarto 2014 wlis dasawyisSi gegmur

inspeqtirebas daqvemdebarebuli 659 biznes operatoridan 33% iyo

20 CavleiSvili m. saqarTvelos sasursaTo usafrTxoebisa da sursaTiT uzrunvelyofis

zogierTi sakiTxi, J.ekonomika da biznesi, #3 2013, gv. 75.

34

Seusabamo saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobasTan, ris gamoc dajarimdnen. 6

biznesoperators SeuCerda sawarmoo procesi kritikuli Seusabamobebis

arsebobis gamo. Aam inspeqtirebuli sawarmoebidan 37 iyo cxovelTa

sasaklao, romelTa 31%-Si aRmoCnda Seusabamoba.21

inspeqtirebis procesebma dinamikaSi darRvevebis Semcirebis tendencia

gamoavlina.

aRsaniSnavia, rom molaparakebebis procesSi qarTulma mxarem miaRwia

uprecedento SeTanxmebas evrokavSirTan satarifo liberalizaciis kuTxiT.

SeTanxmebis ZalaSi SesvlisTanave, qarTuli warmoSobis yvela produqti

(nioris garda, romelzec imoqmedebs raodenobrivi SezRudva),

gaTavisufldeba sabaJo tarifisgan evrokavSiris bazarze eqsportisas.

„asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis“ implementaciis Sedegad, saqarTvelos

moqalaqeebi konkretul sargebels miiReben. maT Soris, aRsaniSnavia:

soflis meurneobis produqciis xarisxis gaumjobeseba, sawarmoebisTvis

ukeTesi SesaZleblobebis gaxsna, evropuli ganaTlebis xelmisawvdomoba,

gaumjobesebuli jandacva, energo efeqtianobis gazrda da ganaxlebadi

energoresursebis ganviTareba, ukeTesad funqcionirebadi sasamarTlo,

gamyarebuli kanonis uzenaesoba, sajaro samsaxuris gazrdili

angariSvaldebuleba da gamWvirvaloba da sxva. aRmosavleT partniorobis

kidev erT mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas warmoadgens energoresursebis

miwodebis usafrTxoeba da energetikuli damoukideblobis gaZliereba.

yvelaze optimisturi gamoTvlebiTac ki, Tu evrokavSiri fundamenturad ar

gardaqmnis Tavis energetikul politikas da ar Cadebs am sferoSi

seriozul investiciebs, evrokavSiris damokidebuleba energoresursebis

gare momwodebelze 2025 wlisaTvis 50%-dan 70%-mde gaizrdeba. am donis

damokidebuleba gare momwodeblebze, safrTxes uqmnis evrokavSiris

politikur damoukideblobas. Aaqedan gamomdinare, evrokavSiris da

partniori qveynebis energetikuli usafrTxoebis gaZliereba aRmosavleTis

partniorobis mTavar prioritets warmoadgens. 22energetikul konteqstSi

igi partniori qveynebis evrokavSiris sam sxvadasxva politikaSi CarTvas da

21 http://nfa.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=GEO&sec_id=18122 Paresashvili, N. Policy Implementation of the Eastern Partnership in Georgia, Journal: ,,Public Policy and

Administration”, 2013. Vol.12, #4 pp.640.

35

monawileobis SesaZleblobas gulisxmobs. esenia: evrokavSiris vaWroba,

konkurenciis politika da evrokavSiris energetikuli politika..23

saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis sferoSi kanonmdeblobis daaxloveba

uzrunvelyofs saqarTvelos saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis maqsimalur

gamWvirvalobas da amasTan, saqarTveloSi warmoebuli saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis daSvebas evrokavSiris wevri qveynebis saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis

bazarze.

„asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis“ gaformeba xels Seuwyobs:

ekonomikuri reformebis process da qmediTi, funqcionirebadi da efeqtiani

sabazro ekonomikis ganviTarebas, saxelmwifo seqtoris Sida finansuri

kontrolisa da gare auditis ganviTarebas, sagadasaxado sferoSi

efeqtiani mmarTvelobis gaZlierebas ekonomikuri urTierTobebis

gaRrmavebis, vaWrobis ganviTarebisa da damatebiTi investiciebis mozidvis

mizniT, erovnuli statistikis sistemis SesaZleblobebis ganviTarebas

drouli uzrunvelyofis gziT, evrokavSirTan satransporto sferoSi

TanamSromlobis ganviTarebas, saqarTvelos energousafrTxoebis

ganmtkicebas, garemos dacvis sferoSi evropuli standartebis etapobriv

danergvas, klimaturi cvlilebis winaaRmdeg brZolis kuTxiT

TanamSromlobis gaRrmavebas, mrewvelobis sferoSi evropuli

standartebisa da normebis etapobriv danergvas, finansuri momsaxurebis,

sabanko da sadazRvevo sferoebSi TanamSromlobis ganviTarebas, turizmis

sferoSi TanamSromlobis gaRrmavebas, soflis meurneobis sferoSi

evropuli standartebisa da normebis etapobriv danergvas. aseve,

centralur da adgilobriv doneze administraciuli SesaZleblobebis

ganviTarebas da sxva24

Tavisufali savaWro sivrce SeZlebisdagvarad xels Seuwyobs

saqarTvelos TandaTanobiT integracias evrokavSiris Sida bazarze, rasac

Sedegad mohyveba: samarTliani da biznesisaTvis xelsayrel garemos

Camoyalibeba, korufciis Semcireba, Sida bazris wesebis Sesabamisi

samrewvelo produqciisa da sursaTis uvneblobis sferoSi Tanamedrove

23 Declaration: Prague Summit-Southern Corridor-Ref: CL09-102EN, Source UE: Conceil, UN forum, Date: 8/5/2009.24 http://www.mfa.gov.ge.

36

standartebs Semotana. samarTlebrivi da instituciuri garemo didad

gazrdis saqarTvelos, rogorc ekonomikuri partnioris, mimzidvelobas,

rac waaxalisebs sagareo da saSinao investiciebs. dRis wesrigis

Sesabamisad ganxorcieldeba bazarze daSvebis barierebis ormxrivi da

TandaTanobiTi moxsna, eqsportis mxriv, qarTul mwarmoeblebsa da

eqsportiorebs SesTavazeben Tavisufal wvdomas evrokavSiris bazarze,

yvela tipis saqonelis 500 milionze meti maRali Semosavlis mqone

momxmarebliT.Aamitom, Tavisufali savaWro sivrce Teoriulad da

praqtikuladac didi mniSvnelobis mqonea da gacilebiT Rrmaa. misi

realuri mizani swored evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobis im nawilis miRebaa,

romelic xels Seuwyobs saqarTvelos savaWro da sainvesticio

potencialis gazrdas. es ki sabolood migviyvans iqamde, rom saqarTvelo

CarTuli aRmocndeba evropuli bazris saerTo sivrceSi. es ki niSnavs, rom

moxdeba Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis farglebSi evrokavSiris Sida

bazarze saqarTvelos TandaTanobiTi integracia.

1.3 evropuli Rirebulebebisaken swrafvis istoriuli apeqtebi

,,me var qarTveli, maSasadame, me var evropeli“

zurab Jvania

evropuli Rirebulebebi da faseulobebi odidganve qarTveli

moazrovneebisa da sazogado moRvaweebis sanukvar mizans warmoadgenda.

saqarTvelos evropisken da zogadad, dasavleTisken ltolva XX saukunis

miwuruls ar dawyebula. Cvenma winaprebma gacilebiT adre daiwyes gzis

gakafva evropisaken, miaCndaT ra evropa qveynis Zlierebisa da

Tavisuflebis erT-erT garantad. Tu frangi poetisa da moazrovnis, pol

valeris cnobil mosazrebas gavaanalizebT “yvela rasa, ,,yvela miwa,

romelic Tanmimdevrulad iyo romanizebuli, gaqristianebuli,

37

eqvemdebareba berZnuli disciplinis Segnebas, absoluturad evropulia”25

adekvatur daskvnas gavakeTebT: saqarTveloc iseTive evropuli qveyanaa

gamodis, rogorc saberZneTi, poloneTi, ungreTi an romelime sxva maTi

msgavsi.

sakmarisia gavixsenoT petre iberis, giorgi mTawmindelis, mefeebis:

daviT IV aRmaSenebeli, Tamari, giorgi IV laSa, giorgi V brwyinvale, simon

mefe, Teimuraz, vaxtang VI, erekle II da sxv saqmianobebi da mosazrebebi,

rom ganvacxadoT: dasavleTis civilizaciis procesSi saqarTvelo

monawileobda da misi mzera yovelTvis mimarTuli iyo dasavleTisken. Ees

dasturdeba droTa ganmavlobaSi Savi zRvis qarTul sanapiroebze

berZnebis mier qalaqebis daarsebiTa da savaWro-kulturuli

urTierTobebis ganviTarebiT, riTic Seiqmna winapirobebi saqarTvelosa da

saberZneTs Soris mWidro urTierTobebis dasamyareblad.

saqarTvelos evropasTan integraciaze miuTiTebda cnobili qarTveli

emigranti mecnieri, profesori mixeil musxeliSvili, romelic xazs

usvamda qarTvelebis evropelobas, rodesac werda ,,aucilebelia, rom

qarTvelebma daamtkicon TavianTi arseboba evropaSi da miaRebinon

saqarTvelo dasavleTis erebis ojaxSi. droaA qarTvelebma Seignon, rom

isini evropas miekuTvnebian”.26

evropuli Rirebulebebis adekvaturi samarTlebrivi da politikuri

Sexedulebebia warmodgenili e.w. “marTali samarTlis” mixedviT udidesi

qarTveli poetis SoTa rusTavelis “vefxistyaosanSi”. rusTaveli

afiqsirebs taxtis memkvidreobis uflebas, aCvenebs qalisa da mamakacis

Tanasworuflebianobas, yuradRebas amaxvilebs feodaluri sazogadoebis

TiToeuli wodebebisaTvis garkveul uflebebsa da movaleobebze, xazs

usvams omisa da ajanyebis uflebas. rusTavelisaTvis mefe aris

TviTmpyrobeli, reformatori da toleranti. amave dros is aris

mosiyvarule da qveSemvrdomTaTvis samarTlis mimniWebeli, qvriv-oxrebze

da gaWirvebulebze mudam mzrunveli. es ki sxvas arafers niSnavs, Tu ara im

25 SubiTiZe Ev., wereTeli, n. evropeizacia da qarTulu politikuri azrovneba Tb., 2013 gv.

5.

26 musxeliSvili m. saqarTvelo da evropa, saqarTvelos urTierToba evropisa da amerikis

qveynebTan, Tb; 1995, gv.54.

38

Rirebulebebis konstantacias, romelsac Semdgom daefuZna mTeli evropuli

civilizacia.

wminda evropuli idealebsa da principebs efuZvneba Tamaris

saqmianobebi: ,,mefe (Tamari) auqmebs asoebis mokveTas, aCerebs sikvdiliT

dasjas, aviTarebs qvelmoqmedebas, SemdgomSi amkvidrebs saxelmwifo

samsaxurSi dgomis tradicias da ara cariel gvariSvilobas,

araaborigenebis mimarT SeRavaTebs da maTi kulturis, religis Senaxvas,

maT dacvas. religiuri mSvidobianoba, yvela religiis pativiscema da

daxmareba saqarTvelos saxelmwifo politika iyo, rac cxadia exmianeba

evropul ideebs.27 Tamari evropuli socialuri idealis realuri saxea.

aRsaniSnavia, rom faruli arCevnebis idea jer kidev aTonis mTaze

(bizantia) moRvawe giorgi mTawmindelis (aTonelis) saqmianobisas gaCnda.

man SemoiRo “wilnayrobis wesi,” romelic qarTuli monastrebis

winamZRvarTa daniSvnisas gamoiyeneboda. “sakmarisia gavixsenoT XI saukunis

damdegs qarTul samonastro wes-wyobilebaSi momxdari cvlileba, rodesac

winandeli mamasaxlisisgan Tanamdebobis pirTa daniSvnis monarqiuli wesi

respublikur wesad Seicvala da monastrebSi yvela wevrTa “TanadgomiTa

da erTnebobiT” mowyobili arCevnebi iqna SemoRebuli, rom Tamaris dros

yuTlu-arslanis dasis politikuri moZraobis Sedegad saqarTvelos

saxelmwifo wes-wyobilebaSi momxdari cvlilebebis ideuri saTavis

saTauroba cxadi Seiqnas. 28

evropuli Rirebulebebisadmi swrafvis gamovlenis erT-erT formas

warmoadgenda zrunva ganaTlebis evropul donesTan miaxloebaze. amis

idealur magaliTs warmoadgenda XI-XII saukuneTa mijnaze daviT

aRmaSenebelis mier gelaTis da iyalTos akademiebis daarseba. es sxva

araferi ar iyo, Tu ara evropuli ganaTleba, bavSvTa aRzrda-ganaTlebisa

da mecnierebis ganviTareba erovnuli tradiciebis dacviT. Tumca isic unda

aRiniSnos, rom jer kidev IV saukuneSi fazisSi (dasavleT saqarTveloSi),

ukve arsebobda fazisis akademia.

Tamamad SegviZlia vTqvaT, rom maSindeli qarTuli samarTali

msoflios erT-erTi yvelaze humanuri da demokratiuli samarTali iyo.

27 SubiTiZe v. politologia, Tb; 2006, gv. 85.

28javaxiSvili i. Txz. tomi II, Tb; 1983, gv 376.

39

akrZala ra wameba da SeaCera sikvdiliT dasja, Tamaris saqarTvelom

gauswro evropul qveynebs: “samarTlis saqmeTa organizaciaSic

saqarTvelom im epoqaSi sagrZnob progress miaRwia: sisxlis samarTlis

Teoriis udidesi miRwevebis gverdiT, im miRwevebis, romelTa mSvenieri

magaliTi mocemulia eqvTime aTonelis moZRvrebaSi mkvlelobisa da

WrilobaTa miyenebis Sesaxeb, saqarTveloSi mTeli rigi RonisZiebebi iyo

Catarebuli praqtikuli xasiaTisac. Seqmnili iyo sagangebo dawesebuleba,

romelic ganagebda mxolod sisxlis samarTlis saqmeebs. amgvarad

gamijnul iqna sfero sisxlis samarTlisa da samoqalaqo saqmis

warmoebisa. Semdeg sakasacio saCivarTa garCeva daviT aRmaSenebelma

CamoarTva uzenaesi xelisuflebis funqciebs, nacvlad amisa Seiqmna

uzenaesi sakasacio kolegiuri sasamarTlo.“ 29

qvelmoqmedeba, RaribTa daxmareba ganviTarebul evropul

saxelmwifoTa wesi da socialuri normaa. socialur mSvidobianobas

daviTis xelisuflebis dros qveyanaSi ganapirobebda is, rom saxelmwifo

Semosavlis 10% qvelmoqmedebas xmardeboda, sadac “Sigan maTTa

sibrZnisagan Txa da mgeli erTad sZovdes”.

marTalia 1453 wels osmalTa mier bizantiis da konstantinopolis

dapyrobam saqarTvelo didi xniT mowyvita evropas da evropul

faseulobebs, magram qarTvelobas arc Turq-selCukebTan da monRolebTan

Tavganwiruli brZolebis Semdeg Seuwyvetia swrafva evropisaken, am mxriv

aRsaniSnavia mefeebis: simon mefe, Teimuraz I, vaxtang VI, erekle meore da

qarTveli moazrovneebis: sulxan-saba orbeliani, anTimoz iverieli, da sxva.

saqmianoba. qeTevan wamebulis Tavdadeba qristianobisaTvis mTel

imdroindel evropaSi evropeli misionerebisa da samRvdeloebisaTvis

misabaZ magaliTad iqca. yvela am dampyroblis sastiki koloniuri

mmarTvelobis miuxedavad, qarTvelebisaTvis mTavar Rirebulebas erisa da

pirovnebis Tavisufleba, mterTan Seurigebloba, civilizebuli

mmarTvelobis damyareba warmoadgenda.

evropuli Rirebulebebis Semotana da dabruneba saqarTveloSi

ukavSirdeba ilia WavWavaZis, niko nikolaZis da arCil jorjaZis saxels.

29javaxiSvili i. Txz. tomi II, Tb; 1983, gv 409.

40

swored ilia WavWavaZe saubrobda qveyanaSi Tanamedrove sabazro ekonomikis

principebis danergvaze: “exla an adli unda gveWiros xelSi, an guTani, an

Carxi qarxanisa, an marTulebi manqanisa. exla vaJkacoba omisa ki ar unda,

rom sisxlsa hRvrides, vaJkacoba unda Sromisa, rom ofli hRvaros. kidev

vityviT, qveyana axla imisia, vinc irjeba da vinc icis wesi da xerxi

garjisa, vinc ufro ufrTxildeba naSroms, vinc izogavs naRvaws, dRes

mZleTa mZlea marto is, vinc mcvelia da bejiTi suliTa da xorciTa,

codniTa da marjveniTa, exlac omia, xolo sisxlis Rvrisa ki ara, oflis

Rvrisa, omi usisxlo, mSvidobiani, wynari – es omi Sromisaa da viTarca

Sroma – patiosania, namusiania da iseTive Tavmosawonebeli, TavgamosaCeni,

rogorc uwin Tofisa da xmlis omi iyo. vaJkacoba amisTana omSi bevriT win

aris sisxlis omis vaJkacobaze” 30

qarTveli publicisti, Jurnalisti, mwerali da sazogado moRvawe. s.

mesxi aRniSnavda TergdaleulTa axali Taobis (n. nikolaZe, g. wereTeli, k.

lorTqifaniZe, da sxv.) rols qarTveli eris istoriaSi evropisaken axali

bilikebis gakvalvaSi: “am axali Taobis saqebrad unda vTqvaT, rom es

axali gza imaT male monaxes, es gza- dasavleT evropis gza aris.31

n. nikolaZes saqarTvelosTvis idealur variantad evropuli

ganviTarebis kursi miaCnda: “orientacia STagonebiT ar xerxdeba, xalxi,

rogorc yoveli cocxali arseba, TavisTavad mudam iqeT iqcevs pirs,

saidanac mze sxivs hfens da Rvivis. saqarTvelo warsulSi orientacias

yovelTvis iqeT mimarTavda xolme, saidanac sinaTle da moZraoba modioda.

Semcdaria, vinc fiqrobs, viTomc romelime mefes, wodebas an Taobas Tavis

nebaze SeZlebodes saqarTvelos aqeT da iqeT mibruneba. sanam ganaTleba da

cxovreba bizantiaSi enTo, saqarTvelosac mzesumzirasaviT Tvali iqeT

ekava, roca sparseTi ayvavda indoeTis kulturaze dawafebiT, Cveni

aRorZinebac misken miimarTa, azri misken gvqonda, petre didisa da

ekaterine meoris amagma ruseTi rom gaaCaRa, saqarTveloc Zalauneburad man

waritaca fizikiskanoniT. roca sxvadasxva Zala erT da imave sagans

30 SubiTiZe v, politologia. Tb; 2006, gv.82-83.

31 nawerebi sergei mesxisa. tomi I, 1903, gv 104.

41

Tavisken uqaCavebs, am sagnis mdebareobas swyvets mebrZoli Zalebis

uZlieresoba, sagans, unda Tu ar unda, yovelTvis momrevi gadiTrevs.”32

n. nikolaZe agreTve erT-erTi pirvelTagania, visac vaWroba miaCnda,

mrewvelobis Semobrunebis, soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis, sazogadoebis

winsvlisa da gaZlierebis berketad. man qveynis prioritetad mecniereba

gamocxada. N n. nikolaZem wina planze wamoswia eris ganviTarebaSi

sakuTari warmoebis aRorZinebis aucilebloba, erovnuli vaWrobisa da

erovnuli mrewvelobis ganviTareba. Mmas saqarTvelos damoukideblobis

SenarCunebisaTvis qveynis ekonomikuri damoukidebloba da gaZliereba

miaCnda upirveles prioritetad.

1913 wels Jurnali “klde“ werda: ,,nikolaZe da ruseTSi naswavli

inteligencia ori antipodia, sul sxvadasxva tipebi. n. nikolaZe suliT da

guliT evropelia, evropaSi naswavli, evropis ideebiT gamsWvaluli,

evropis teqnika-industriis mcodne, iniciativis kaci, praqtikuli da

saqmiani. Cveni inteligencia ki umTavresad aRzrdilia ruseTis skolaSi, am

monuri suliT, Cinovnikuri rutiniT da socialistikiT gaJRenTili. amitom

Cveni inteligentebi umTavresad arian Teoretikosebi, meocnebe, akademiuri

msjelobis xalxi. amaTi sferoa Tbili kabineti, rbili savarZeli,

uniadagT Teoriuli msjeloba, metafizikuri morali da sxvadasxva

partiul-politikuri ocneba, fantaziebi. nikolaZe ki, uwinares yovlisa,

muSakia dakapiwebuli xelebiT, cxovrebis teqniki da laboranti. igi

realistia, realuri politikis mwarmoebeli, cxovrebis mcodne, mis

qartexilSi Cavardnili.”33

qarTvelTagan noe Jordania iyo erT-erTi pirvelTagani, romelmac

gaacnobiera, rom evropa ,,Cveni mteri ar aris, piriqiT, is aris sisxli-

sisxlTagani Cveni da xorci-xorcTagani Cveni. Cven CveniTve vevropieldebiT

da maSasadame, mis gverdiT, masTan SekavSirebiT unda vicxovroT” da rom

“gaevropeleba warmoebs qarTul niadagze, qarTul kulturaze.” evropaSi

iZulebiT emigraciasa da mravali wlis ganmavlobaSi iq cxovrebis dros

noe Jordania kidev ufro cxadad darwmunda, rom “evropis gza msoflio

32 nikolaZe n. Txz. t. IV, prof. l.m. gamezardaSvilis red.,Tb. sax. un-ti, 1964, gv. 337.

33 nikolaZe n. -150 saiubileo krebuli, Tb; 1996, gv.10.

42

gzaa, axla istoriis sxva gza ar gamougonia da TavisTavad misaxvedria

Cveni masze Sedgoma” n. Jordanias azriT saqarTvelosaTvis misaRebia

evropis Sromis saSualebani, misi nivTieri da sulieri kultura, misi

teqnika da misi mecniereba.

dRes, qveynis demokratiuli ganviTareba, evropuli da

evroatlantikuri integracia da suvereniteti erT mTlian subieqtad iqca,

romliskenac mizanmimarTulad miiwevs dRes saqarTvelo. saqarTvelos

evropul orientacias ar gaaCnia alternativa. es aris is. romliskenac

mudam istoriulad iswrafoda kulturiT, religiiTa da politikuri

sistemiT.

Tanamedrove etapze, evrokavSiri sul ufro damajereblad imkvidrebs

adgils saerTaSoriso asparezze, rogorc ekonomikuri, politikuri,

finansuri da samxedro gavlenis mzardi geopolitikuri centri. Aაqedan

gamomdinare izrdeba interesi Tavad evropis kavSirisa da mis farglebSi

Camoyalibebuli tendenciebis mimarT. MmiT ufro, rom samomavlod kavSiris

moqmedebis teritoriuli sferos kidev ufro gazrda da gafarToveba

igegmeba, evrokavSiris wevrobis kandidati saxelmwifoebiს xarjze,

marTalia კაndidati saxelmwifos statusi gaaCnia TurqeTs, Tumca am

qveynis kavSirSi miReba dRes didi davisa da kamaTis sagania. saqarTvelom,

moldovam da ukraიnamac ukve moaweres evrokavSirTan asocirebis

xelSekrulebas xeli.

evropis kavSirTan urTierTobebis gaRrmaveba da integracia

saqarTvelos ara marto evropuli civilizaciis wiaRSi dabrunebis,

keTildReobisa da stabilurobis garantias iZleva - igi saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis, kulturuli gadarCenisa da ganviTarebis erT-erT

winapirobasac warmoadgens.

43

Tavi II. saqarTvelis evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis statistikuri

Seswavlis meTodebi da aRricxvis ZiriTadi problemebi

2.1 sagareo seqtoris statistikis warmoebis

meTodologiuri principebi

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done mniSvnelovnadaa

damokidebuli ,,danarCen samyarosTan mis kavSirurTierTobebze,”34 radgan

msoflioSi mimdinare intergraciuli procesebis fonze gaizarda qveynebis

ekonomikuri ganviTarebis doneebis erTmaneTze gavlenis xarisxi.

sagadasaxdelo balansi warmoadgens im statistikur angariSs,

romelic asaxavs drois garkveul periodSi qveyanasa da danarCen

msoflios Soris ganxorcielebul ekonomikur operaciebs. Aamitom is

qveynis ekonomikuri saqmianobis analizisa da prognozirebis mniSvnelovani

berketia. sagadasaxdelo balansis statistikis meTodologia eyrdnoba

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis „sagadasaxdelo balansisa da

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio poziciis saxelmZRvanelos“ me-6 gamocemas

(„Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual Sixth Edition (BPM6)”.

international Monetary Fund. Washington, 2009).sagadasaxdelo balansis informaciis wyaroa saqarTvelos erovnuli

bankis, saqarTvelos teritoriaze moqmedi komerciuli bankebis, sadazRvevo

kompaniebisa da mikrosafinanso organizaciebis kvartaluri da Tviuri

angariSgeba ucxouri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis Sesaxeb, statistikis

erovnuli samsaxuris yovelkvartaluri da sxvadasxva periodulobis

SerCeviTi kvlevebi, satvirTo–sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa baza, Sps

„saqarTvelos eleqtrosistemis“ yovelkvartaluri informacia

importirebuli, eqsportirebuli da tranzitiT gatarebuli

eleqtroenergiis Sesaxeb, gazis transportirebis kompaniis informacia

importirebuli da tranzitiT gatarebuli bunebrivi airis Sesaxeb,

ZiriTadi partniori qveynebis sagareo vaWrobis monacemebi, Sps

„saqarTvelos rkinigza“, saqarTveloSi arsebuli portebi da aeroportebi,

34 aslamaziSvili n. saerTaSoriso statistika. Tb. 2009, gv.85.

44

sxvadasxva saxelmwifo struqturebi (saministroebi, departamentebi da

sxva), presisa da masobrivi informaciis saSualebebiT gavrcelebuli

informacia.35

sagadasaxdelo balansi Sedgeba oro ZiriTadi nawilisagan: mimdinare

operaciebis angariSisa da finansuri resursebis angariSebisagan.36

mimdinares miekuTvneba sasaqonlo, momsaxurebisa da Semosavlebis

operaciebi (mimdinare transferebi ganixileba rogorc Semosavlebis

gadanawileba)37 finansuri angariSi asaxavs rezidentemis mier sazRvargareT

ganxorcielebul investiciebs da ararezdentebis mier saqarTveloSi

ganxorcielebul investiciebs. (gamoiyofa: pirdapiri investiciebi,

portfelis investiciebi, finansuri warmoebulebi, sxva investiciebi da

sarezervo aqtivebi). mimdinare angariSSi asaxulia saqoneli da

momsaxureba, pirveladi Semosavlebi da meoradi Semosavlebi. saqonlis

angariSi moicavs saqonlis eqsport-imports, xolo momsaxurebis angariSi

moicavs momsaxurebas, romelic gauwies sxva qveynis rezidentebs

saqarTvelos rezidentebma da piriqiT. Aam Mmomsaxurebebs miekuTvneba:

satransporto, safosto da kurieruli momsaxureba, turizmi, mSenebloba,

manufaqturuli momsaxureba, saqonlis remonti da sxva teqnikuri

momsaxureba, sadazRvevo da sapensio momsaxureba, inteleqtualuri

sakuTrebiT sargebloba, finansuri momsaxureba satelekomunikacio,

kompiuteruli da sainformacio momsaxureba, sxva saqmiani momsaxureba,

piradi, kulturuli da rekreaciuli momsaxureba, samTavrobo saqoneli da

momsaxureba sxvagan dausaxelebeli.

pirveladi Semosavlis angariSSi asaxulia pirveladi Semosavlis

nakadebi rezident da ararezident instituciur erTeulebs Soris. Ais

moicavs: Sromis anazRaurebasa da sainvesticio Semosavals. momuSaveTa

anazRaureba sxva qveynis rezidentebis mier aisaxeba Sromis anazRaurebaSi,

masSi Sedis aseve qveyanaSi momuSave da sazRvargareTis qveynebSi qveynis

35 https://www.nbg.gov.ge sagareo seqtori/meTodologia.

36 NaslamaziSvili n. saerTaSoriso statistika. Tb. 2009, gv. 66.

37 QmarSava, q. mindoraSvili, m. erovnul angariSTa sistema. Teoria, praqtika, analizi Tb.,

2008, gv, 232.

45

diplomatiur warmomadgenlobebSi dasaqmebuli ararezidentebis Sromis

anazRaureba.

rac Seexeba sainvesticio Semosavlebs, masSi Sedis Semosavlebi

pirdapiri, portfelis da sxva investiciebidan. kreditSi aisaxeba

saqarTvelos rezidentebis mier sazRvargareT ganxorcielebuli

investiciebidan miRebuli Semosavali, xolo debetSi piriqiT –

ararezidentebis mier saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebidan

miRebuli Semosavali.

meoradi Semosavlis angariSi asaxavs mimdinare transferebs qveynis

rezidentebsa da ararezidentebs Soris. transferi aris operacia, rodesac

erTi instituciuri erTeuli meores awvdis saqonels, momsaxurebas an

aqtivs da samagierod ar iRebs misgan ekvivalentur saqonels, mosaxurebasa

da aqtivs38. saerTaSoriso angariSebi SeiZleba klasificirebul iqnes

Semdegi saxis mimdinare transferebad: mimdinare gadasaxadebi Semosavalze,

qonebaze da a.S., socialuri mosakreblebi, socialuri sargebeli, mimdinare

saerTaSoriso TanamSromloba, wminda sadazRvevo premia sicocxlis

dazRvevis garda, sadazRvevo moTxovnebi sicocxlis dazRvevis garda,

piradi gadaricxvebi da sxva mimdinare transferebi.

kapitalisa da finansuri angariSi moicavs: kapitalis angariSsa da

finansur angariSs. Aaqedan kapitalis angariSSi gamoiyofa: kapitaluri

transferebi da arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis SeZena–gadacema.

Tavis mxriv kapitaluri transferi SeiZleba iyos samTavrobo seqtorisa da

sxva seqtorebis. kapitalur transfers miekuTvneba aseve valis patieba.

portfelis investiciebi, pirdapiri investiciebi, finansuri

warmoebulebi, sxva investiciebi da sarezervo aqtivebi aisaxeba finansur

angariSSi. rogorc cnobilia pirdapiri investiciebi moicavs: saaqcio

kapitals da sainvesticio fondis aqciebs, reinvestirebul Semosavlebs da

savalo instrumentebs. aqve aisaxeba saqarTvelos pirdapiri investiciebi

sazRvargareT. saqstati maT Sesaxeb informaciis moipovebs sawarmoTa

pirdapiri gamokvlevidan komerciuli bankebis angariSgebis safuZvelze,

38 marSava m. mindoraSvili - erovnul angariSTa sistema. Teoria, praqtika, analizi Tb.,

2008, gv,238.

46

xolo damatebiTi informaciis mozidva xdeba internetidan da sxvadasxva

sainformacio saSualebebidan.

portfelis investiciebi moicavs iseT dabandebebs sawarmos sawesdebo

kapitalSi, romelic iZleva xmebis 10%–ze naklebs. portfelis investorebs

miekuTvnebian aseve is iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebi, romlebic floben

ararezidenti sawarmos mier gamoSvebul sxvadasxva saxis fasian

qaRaldebs, romlebic ar uzrunvelyofen sawesdebo kapitalSi

monawileobas. 39

finansuri warmoebulebi, romelic adre Sedioda portfelis

investiciebSi, finansuri angariSis damoukidebeli komponentia. masSi

Sedis fasian qaRaldebi: opcionebi, fiuCersebi, svopebi, forvarduli

kontraqtebi da sxva. saqarTveloSi ukve ramdenime banki iyenebs warmoebul

finansur instrumentebs. finansuri warmoebulebis Sesaxeb ZiriTad

informaciis wyaro warmoadgens sawarmoTa gamokvleva, komerciuli bankebis

da erovnuli bankis angariSgeba.

sxva investiciebi moicavs finansuri angariSis yvela mokle da

grZelvadian gatarebas, garda pirdapiri da portfelis investiciebisa,

warmoebuli finansuri instrumentebisa da sarezervo aqtivebisa. MmaT

miekuTvneba: naRdi fuli da depozitebi, sesxebi, savaWro kreditebi,

avansebi da sxva aqtivebi da valdebulebebi. calke unda gamovyoT savaWro

kreditebi da avansebi, radgan es aris aqtivebi da valdebulebebi,

romlebic warmoiSveba sagareo savaWro urTierTobebis Sedegad da

romlebic moklevadiania. Tumca sagadasaxdelo balansSi xorcieldeba

maTi dayofa grZel da moklevadianad. rac Seexeba sesxebs sagadasaxdelo

balansSi isini klasificirebulia vadianobis mixedviT da instituciuri

seqtorebis mixedviT. sxva investiciebis sxva valdebulebebi da aqtivebi

Sedgeba vadagadacilebuli davalianebisagan da, garda amisa, yvela im

poziciisgan, romelic ar moxvda zemoT CamoTvlil muxlebSi.

sarezervo aqtivebi warmoadgens maRallikvidur ucxour aqtivebs,

romelsac flobs an akontrolebs saqarTvelos erovnuli banki da romlis

gamoyeneba sagadasaxdelo balansis deficitis dasafinanseblad an raime


47

sxva mizniT SesaZlebelia dauyonebliv. sarezervo aqtivebi Sedgeba Semdegi

komponentebisgan: monetaruli oqro, sesxis specialuri ufleba, savaluto

pozicia fondSi, sxva sarezervo aqtivebi, romlebic akmayofileben

sarezervo aqtivebis moTxovnebs da ar moxvdnen zemoT CamoTvlil

punqtebSi. sxva sarezervo aqtivebi Sedgeba naRdi ucxouri valutisagan,

ararezident safinanso organizaciebSi ganTavsebuli depozitebisgan da

maRallikviduri fasiani qaRaldebisgan. amasTan, sarezervo aqtivi ucxour

valutaSi aucileblad unda iyos Tavisuflad konvertirebadi. monacemTa

wyaroa erovnuli bankis sabalanso angariSebi.40

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio pozicia (ssp) asaxavs drois garkveul

momentSi sagareo finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis naSTebs. ssp

aerTianebs ararezidentebisadmi moTxovnebsa da maT mimarT sxvadasxva

saxis valdebulebebs ekonomikis Semdegi seqtorebis mixedviT: erovnuli

banki, depozituri korporaciebi erovnuli bankis garda, samTavrobo da

sxva seqtorebi. ssp–is ZiriTadi muxlebi sagadasaxdelo balansis

finansuri angariSis muxlebis identuria da moicavs: pirdapir

investiciebs, portfelis investiciebs, finansur warmoebulebs, sxva

investiciebsa (sxva saaqcio kapitali, naRdi fuli da depozitebi, sesxebi,

sadazRvevo, sapensio programebi da standartuli sagarantio sqemebi

savaWro kreditebi da avansebi, sxva moTxovnebi/valdebulebi) da sarezervo

aqtivebs. sagadasaxdelo balansis agebis proncipi mdgomareobs masSi, rom

TiToeuli operacia tardeba ormagi Caweris wesiT.41

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio pozicia periodis bolos iangariSeba,

rogorc naSTs periodis dasawyisSi damatebuli periodis ganmavlobaSi

momxdari operaciuli cvlileba, moculobis sxva cvlileba, gacvliTi

kursisa da fasis sxva cvlileba. operaciuli cvlileba Seesabameba

sagadasaxdelo balansis finansuri angariSis tranzaqciebs. sxvaoba

ekonomikis finansur aqtivebsa da valdebulebebs Soris Seadgens wminda

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio pozicias. ssp SeiZleba iyos wminda kredituli

(+) an wminda debeturi (-).


41 gabiZaSvili, b. -statistika ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi.Tb., 2011,Ggv.815.

48

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio poziciis informaciis wyaros armoadgens

saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis da saqarTvelos teritoriaze moqmedi

komerciuli bankebis, sadazRvevo kompaniebisa da mikrosafinanso

organizaciebis kvartaluri da Tviuri angariSgeba ucxouri aqtivebisa da

valdebulebebis Sesaxeb. MmniSvnelovania agreTve finansTa saministros

informacia saxelmwifo garantiiT aRebuli sagareo valisa da misi

momsaxurebis Sesaxeb. statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri iZleva informacias

sawarmoTa saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri urTierTobebis Sesaxeb, xolo

informacias investiciebis Sesaxeb ki saqarTvelos ekonomikisa da mdgradi

ganviTarebis saministro.

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio poziciis meTodologia SesabamisobaSia

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis: „sagadasaxdelo balansisa da

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio poziciis saxelmZRvanelos“ me-6 gamocemasTan

(„Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. Sixth Edition (BPM6)”.

International Monetary Fund. Washington, 2009).

GgasaTvaliswinebelia, rom gamoqveynebuli ucxouri aqtivebi da

valdebulebebi SeiZleba gansxvavdebodes oficialur saerTaSoriso

rezervebSi mocemul analogiuri monacemebisagan, savaluto kursebis

damrgvalebis gamo.

Uunda aRiniSnos, rom arsebobs gansxvaveba saerTaSoriso

sainvesticio poziciaSi mocemuli sabanko seqtoris wminda ucxour

aqtivebs, ucxouri valdebulebebsa da monetaruli statistikis sxva

depozituri korporaciebis Sesabamisi monacemebs ASoris, rac gamowveulia

monetaruli statistikis monacemebSi ucxoeli pirdapiri da portfelis

investorebis mimarT valdebulebebis aRuricxaobiT. საერთაშორისო

საინვესტიციო პოზიციაში მოცემული საბანკო სექტორის წმინდა უცხოური აქტივები

და უცხოური ვალდებულებები განსხვავდება აგრეთვე მონეტარული სტატისტიკის

სხვა დეპოზიტური კორპორაციების მიმოხილვაში მოცემული შესაბამისი

მონაცემებისგან. განსხვავების მიზეზი არის ის, რომ მონეტარული სტატისტიკის

მონაცემებში არ არის ასახული ვალდებულებები უცხოელი პირდაპირი და პორტფელის

ინვესტორების მიმართ.

49

mTliani sagareo valis statistika moicavs monacemebs erovnuli

ekonomikis finansuri valdebulebebis Sesaxeb ararezidentebis mimarT. rom

ganvmartoT qveynis mTliani sagareo vali, es aris drois mocemuli

momentSi faqtobrivi, upirobo valdebulebebis gadauxdeli Tanxa, romelic

gulisxmobs am qveynis rezidenti debitoris mier ararezidentisaTvis

ZiriTadi an/da procentis gadaxdas momavali periodis romelime

momentSi.Ggamodis rom nebismieri valdebuleba, romelic momaval periodSi

gadasaxdeli iqneba ararezidentisTvis, CarTuli unda iyos qveynis mTlian

sagareo valSi. saangariSo erTeulad, ise rogorc sagadasaxdelo balansis

SemTxvevaSi, gamoyenebulia aSS dolari.

rac Seexeba sagareo valis statistikis informaciuli wyaroebs, aq

unda gamovyoT saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis da saqarTvelos

teritoriaze moqmedi komerciuli bankebis, sadazRvevo kompaniebisa da

mikrosafinanso organizaciebis kvartaluri da Tviuri angariSgeba

ucxouri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis Sesaxeb, agreTve finansTa

saministros informacia saxelmwifo garantiiT aRebuli sagareo valis da

misi momsaxurebis Sesaxeb da statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris

informacia sawarmoTa saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri urTierTobebis Sesaxeb.

mTliani sagareo valis statistikis meTodologia SesabamisobaSia

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis saxelmZRvanelosTan “sagareo valis

statistika“ („External Debt Statistics, Guide for Compilers and Users”. International Monetary

Fund. Washington, 2013).sagareo valis statistika, iseve rogorc sagadasaxdelo balansis

statistika, warmoebs daricxvis meTodiT.

calke unda gamovyoT saxelmwifo seqtoris sagareo valis

informaciuli wyaro, romelsac miekuTvneba finansTa saministros

monacemebi saxelmwifo da saxelmwifo garantiiT aRebuli sagareo valis

Sesaxeb.Dda radgan erovnuli banki, axdens garkveuli cvlilebebis

ganxorcielebas (monacemebis saerTaSoriso standartebTan SesabamisobaSi

moyvanis mizniT), amitom Cndeba gansxvaveba erovnuli bankisa da finansTa

saministros monacemTa Soris. magaliTad, erovnuli banki vadagadacilebul

ZiriTad vals iRebs mimdinare sesxebidan da aRricxavs rogorc

50

vadagadacilebul davalianebas, vadagadacilebuli procentis da

daricxuli jarimis davalianeba, (es ar Sedis finansTa saministros

monacemebSi) erovnul bankSi aRiricxeba rogorc vadagadacilebuli

davalianeba, erovnuli banki angariSobs im daricxul procentebs, romelTa

gadaxdis vada jer ar damdgara da is emateba mTlian sagareo vals. Tumca

es finansTa saministros monacemebSi ar aris asaxuli. Ggansxvavebis

mizezia agreTve is, rom saxelmwifo evroobligaciebi finansTa

saministros monacemebSi asaxulia nominaluri RirebulebiT, xolo

erovnuli bankis monacemebSi sabazro fasiT. zogierT SemTxvevaSi

umniSvnelo gansxvavebis mizezi SeiZleba iyos savaluto kursebis

damrgvaleba finansTa saministros mier.

aRsaniSnavia, rom sagadasaxdelo balansis, saerTaSoriso sainvesticio

poziciisa da mTliani sagareo valis statistikis saangariSo erTeulia

aSS dolari.

2.2 sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri aRricxvis ZiriTadi meTodebi

oficialuri statistika saqarTveloSi sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri

monacemebis xelmisawvdomobas 1995 wlidan uzrunvelyofs. monacemebi

muSavdeba rogorc qveynebis, ise sasaqonlo WrilSi da gamoqveyndeba

yovelTviurad. 2012 wlidan ki saqstati eqsportis, importis, sagareo

savaWro brunvisa da savaWro balansis agregirebul monacemebs aqveynebs.

garda amisa qveyndeba detaluri informacia qveynebisa da sasaqonlo

Wrilis mixedviT. yovelive amis uzrunvelsayofad statistikis erovnuli

samsaxuri sagareo vaWrobis statistikis warmoebas gaerTianebuli erebis

organizaciis statistikis ganyofilebis rekomendaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT

SemuSavebuli meTodologiis, agreTve, rogorc wina paragrafSi aRvniSneT,

gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis saxelmZRvanelos “saqonliT

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika“(niu iorki, 2004 w.) da gaerTianebuli

erebis organizaciis, uaxlesi rekomendaciebis „saqonliT saerTaSoriso

vaWrobis statistika, koncefciebi da gansazRvrebebi“ (niu iorki, 2011 w.)

Sesabamisad axorcielebs.

51

cnobilia, rom saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvis ZiriTadi

kriteriumia mis mier qveynis ekonomikuri teritoriis gadakveTa. eqsportSi

igulisxmeba rogorc erovnuli warmoSobis produqciis gatana

sazRvargareT, ise importirebuli saqonlis reeqsporti. importSi

igulisxmeba qveyanaSi produqciis Semotana da eqsportirebuli saqonlis

reimporti. eqsporti aRricxulia FOB, anu eqsportiori qveynis franko-

sazRvris fasebSi (moicavs eqsportiori qveynis sazRvramde tvirTis

transportirebisa da satransporto saSualebis bortze datvirTvis

xarjebs), xolo importi _ CIF, anu importiori qveynis franko-sazRvris

fasebSi (garda fasisa moicavs saerTaSoriso fraxts da dazRvevis

xarjebs).42

sagareo vaWroba eqsport-importis wesiT qveynebs Soris saqonlis

urTierTgacvlaa urTierTxelsayrel pirobebSi yidva-gayidvis gziT.

swored, am procesis raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebia sagareo vaWrobis

statistikis Seswavlis sagani. sagareo vaWrobis statistikis maCvenebelTa

sistemis areali farTo da mravalferovania, radgan sagareo vaWrobis

statistikis maCveneblebi moicavs ara marto qveynebs Soris vaWrobas,

aramed iseT operaciebsac, rogoricaa tranziti. masSi CairTveba agreTve

saqonlis usasyidlod gadacemac, romelsac miekuTvneba grantebi,

humanitaruli da teqnikuri daxmareba, barteri da sxva. Tumca isic

gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom sagareo savaWro brunvaSi ar aisaxeba

momsaxurebis yidva-gayidva, Semosavlebi kapitalidan da kapitalis brunva.

amis aqcentireba aucielebelia, radgan arasworad moZiebuli, Semdeg

damuSavebuli da gaanalizebuli statistikuri masala gamoiwvevs mcdari

daskvnebis gakeTebas da Sesabamisad, Seiqmneba winapirobani araswori

ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia

sagareo vaWrobis saldo, romelic warmoadgens sxvaobas eqsportisa da

imports Soris. igi SeiZleba iyos dadebiTi, aqtiuri, rodesac eqsportis

moculoba aWarbebs imports da uaryofiTi, pasiuri, rodesac importis

sidide metia eqsportis moculobaze. rogorc ukve aRvniSneT,

42www.geostat.ge sagareo vaWrobis statistikis warmoebis mokle meTodologia.

52

sagadasaxdelo balansi qveynis sagareo ekonomikuri mdgomareobisa da misi

ganviTarebis tendenciebis Seswavlis universaluri statistikuri

instrumentia,43sadac sistematizirebuli saxiTaa asaxuli mocemuli qveynis

msoflios sxva qveynebTan sagareo-ekonomikuri operaciebis jamobrivi

monacemebi drois garkveuli monakveTisaTvis. sagadasaxdelo balansi aris

mocemuli qveynis rezidentebsa da danarCen samyaros Soris garkveul

monakveTSi yvela ekonomikuri garigebis Rirebulebis sistematizirebuli

Canaweri. savaWro balansi es aris mocemuli qveynis farglebSi eqsportisa

da importis Tanafardoba.44

sagareo vaWrobis statistikur maCvenebelTa sistema gamoisaxeba

naturalur da RirebulebiT zomis erTeulebSi. naturalur erTeulebSi

ZiriTadad gamoisaxeba produqciis eqsportisa da importis calkeuli

sasaqonlo poziciebi, saerTaSoriso tvirTbrunvis da mgzavrTbrunvis

sidideebi konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT da a. S. ZiriTadad sagareo

vaWrobis monacemebi gamoisaxeba RirebulebiT formaSi (rogorc wesi, aSS

dolarSi).

sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis erTiani sasaqonlo nomenklaturis

(ses esn) harmonizebuli sistema sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa

erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia. masSi mravali dasaxelebis saqoneli

klasificirebulia garkveuli niSnebis mixedviT da Seqmnilia esn-is

sistema, misi gamoyeneba xdeba eqsport-importis statistikur aRricxvisas.

sayuradReboa, rom sasaqonlo nomenklaturis ganaxleba, saerTaSoriso

organizaciebis rekomendaciebis Sesabamisad, miRebulia xuT weliwadSi

erTxel.

2012 wlis 1 maisidan moxda gadasvla sagareo eknomikuri saqmianobis

sasaqonlo nomenklaturis axal 2012 wlis harmonizebul versiaze. masSi

gaTvaliswinebuli iqna msoflio bazarze gamovlenili tendenciebi da

ZiriTadi saeqsporto da saimporto sasaqonlo jgufebis struqturaSi

mimdinare cvlilebebi, cxadia, qveynebis erovnuli interesebis

gaTvaliswinebiT. A2012 wlamde moqmedebda 2006 wlis seqtembridan

saqarTveloSi amoqmedebuli ses esn-is 2002 wlis versia, romlis

43 NaslamazaSvili n.- saerTaSoriso statistika Tb.,2009, gv.85.

44 mesxia i. -saerTaSoriso vaWroba, Tb., 2012,Ggv. 300-302.

53

detalizacia moxda 11 niSna doneze. aqedan gamomdinare Seicvala

klasifikatoris struqturac. Aaxal versiaSi zogierTi saqoneli ufro

detalurad aris warmodgenili, xolo zogierTi (didi nawili) –

gamsxvilebuli saxiT. masSi Setanili iqna zogierTi saxis SeniSvna da

gakeTebul iqna mcire teqsturi koreqtirebebi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis warmoebisas mizanSewonilia saqonliT

sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi aRiricxos yvela saqoneli, romelic

gadakveTs qveynis ekonomikur teritorias. importis SemTxvevaSi izrdeba

mocemuli qveynis materialuri resursebis maragebi, xolo eqsportis

SemTxvevaSi mcirdeba. amasTan, satranzito an droebiTi tvirTebi saqonliT

sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi asaxvas ar hpovebs, garda gadasamuSaveblad

Semotanili saqonlisa.

detalurad ganvixiloT is saqoneli, romelic saqonliT sagareo

vaWrobis statistikaSi aRricxvas ar eqvemdebareba. esenia:

- monetaruli oqro, rogorc safinanso aqtivi;

- mimoqcevaSi myofi banknotebi, fasiani qaRaldebi da monetebi;

- droebiT Semotanili da gatanili saqoneli. (mag. gamofenebze

gatanili xelovnebis nimuSebi, sawarmoo nimuSebi, sademonstracio

mowyobilobebi da samecniero-meToduri masalebi, agreTve

Sejibrebaze gayvanili cocxali cxovelebi da sxv.)

- , teritoriuli anklavebidan miRebuli an gagzavnili saqoneli. mas

miekuTvneba e.w. diplomatiuri tvirTebi, romelic ganixileba

rogorc Sida savaWro nakadebi;

- satranzito tvirTebi, romlebic gadaadgildebian sabaJo

teritoriis gavliT mxolod transportirebis mizniT (kiotos

konvencia);

- rezidentebis mier ararezidentis sakuTrebaSi arafinansuri

aqtivebis gadacema sazRvris gadakveTis gareSe. es aqtivebi moicavs:

miwas, danadgarebs da materialur maragebs, mowyobilobebs.

arafinansur aqtivebze aseTi saxis sakuTrebis cvlileba iTvleba

finansur operaciad;

- saqoneli, romelic ganixileba, rogorc momsaxurebiT vaWroba. es

moicavs: a) yvela kategoriis (maT Soris momuSave ararezidentebis)

54

Camosuli mgzavris mier SeZenil da sazRvarze gadatanil saqonels,

romlebic ar aRemateba erovnuli kanonmdeblobiT dadgenil

normebs; b) pirdapiri gamoweris wesiT gagzavnili gazeTebi da

perioduli gamocemebi. g) ucxouri saxelmwifoebis anklavebisa

(saelCoebi, samxedro da samecniero bazebi da a.S.) da saerTaSoriso

organizaciebis mier mowodebuli saqoneli, romlebic ganlagebulia

mimRebi qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze. d) informaciis

matareblebi, romlebzec Cawerilia individualuri dakveTiT

Seqmnili programuli uzrunvelyofa;45

- Semdgomi gadayidvisaTvis SeZenili saqoneli. (gadayidvis qveS

igulisxmeba, statistikuri aRricxvis qveynis rezidentis mier amave

qveynis ararezidentisgan saqonlis yidva, sazRvris gadakveTis

gareSe sxva ararezidentisaTvis amave saqonlis miyidvis mizniT);

- eqsportiori qveynis ekonomikuri teritoriis sazRvrebs gareT

gzaSi dakarguli an ganadgurebuli saqoneli, importiori qveynis

ekonomikur teritoriaze Setanamde, es saqoneli ar aisaxeba

importiori qveynis importSi, magram unda aisaxos eqsportiori

qveynis eqsportis statistikaSi. maSin rodesac importior qveyanas

aqvs aseTi saxis saqonelze sakuTrebis ufleba, saWiroa misi

Rirebuleba calke aRiricxos importiori qveynis mier saqonlis

mTliani importis gaangariSebis dros sagadasaxdelo balansisa da

erovnuli angariSebis warmoebis miznebidan gamomdinare;

- tvirTebis transportirebisaTvis gamoyenebuli saqoneli, masSi

Sedis xomaldebi, safreni aparatebi, konteinerebi da asevee

xelaxali gamoyenebisaTvis dabrunebuli carieli boTlebi,

- saremontod gankuTvnili da sxva saxis saqoneli.46

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis 2010 wlis rekomendaciebis mixedviT

zogierTi kategoriis saqoneli, miuxedavad imisa, rom aisaxeba sagareo

vaWrobis statistikaSi, aucilebelia calke aRiricxos sagadasaxdelo

balansisa (BPM6) da erovnuli angariSebis (SNA-2008) warmoebis

45 saqonliT sagareo vaWrobis statistika, cnebebi da ganmartebebi 2010, gaero, niu-iorki,

2011, gv. 22-25.

46 iqve.

55

saWiroebidan gamomdinare. aseTi saxis saqonels miekuTvneba: saqoneli,

romelic gankuTvnilia gadamuSavebisaTvis (sakuTrebis uflebis cvlilebis

gareSe) da saqoneli, romelic sazRvars kveTs or mxares Soris

ganxorcielebuli operaciebis safuZvelze.

calke unda gamovyoT is saqoneli, romelic calke aRiricxeba da ar

aisaxeba sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi. mas miekuTvneba:

- teqnikuri momsaxurebis mizniT an saremontod gadatanili saqoneli.

(ar iqmneba axali produqti.) aq ar Sedis remontis Rirebuleba,

rogorc gaweuli an miRebuli momsaxureba imis Sesabamisad,

romelic qveynis teritoriaze ganxorcielda saqonlis SekeTebis

samuSaoebi;

- jarTi da narCenebi. (Tu maT ar aqvT komerciuli Rirebuleba);

- sazRvarze aralegalurad gadaadgilebuli saqoneli, (magaliTad,

moparuli satransporto saSualebebi, narkotikuli tvirTi

kontrabanduli saqoneli);

- saqoneli, romelic ganadgurda an daikarga importiorze sakuTrebis

uflebis gadasvlis Semdeg.47

arsebobs sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis “zogad meTodi” da specialuri

meTodi. saqarTvelo iyenebs aRricxvis “zogad meTods”, romlis Sesabamisad

partniori qveynis dadgenis ZiriTadi kriteriumebia: saqonlis warmoSobis

an gamomgzavni qveyana-importis dros, xolo saboloo daniSnulebis qveyana-

eqsportis dros. saqstatistaTvis sagareo savaWro operaciebis Sesaxeb

informaciis ZiriTad wyaros warmoadgens satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis

monacemTa baza, romelsac statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri yovelTviurad

iRebs saqarTvelos finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxuridan.

amasTan, informaciis nawili miiReba sxvadasxva uwyebebidan. kerZod,

monacemebi satransporto saSualebebiT vaWrobis Sesaxeb damatebiT miiReba

Sss-is momsaxurebis saagentodan, xolo bunebrivi airisa da

eleqtroenergiis eqsport-importis Sesaxeb _ Sesabamisad Sps "saqarTvelos

47 saqonliT sagareo vaWrobis statistika, cnebebi da ganmartebebi 2010, gaero, niu-iorki,

2011, gv. 22-25.

56

gazis transportirebis kompania"-dan da Sps ,,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo

eleqtrosistema“-dan.

Semosavlebis samsaxuridan miRebuli informaciis safuZvelze saqstati

axorcielebs:

-Semosavlebis samsaxuris monacemTa bazebis Sesworebas. kerZod,

axorcielebs im saqonlis amoRebas bazidan, romelic ar ganekuTvneba

saqonliT sagareo vaWrobas. aseTi SeiZleba iyos: droebiT Semotanili da

gatanili saqoneli; diplomatiuri da sxva saxis tvirTebi, romlebic

saerTaSoriso meTodologiis mixedviT ar Sedis saqonliT sagareo

vaWrobaSi mimoqcevaSi myofi fasiani qaRaldebi, banknotebi da monetebi.

- saqonlis kodis, fasis, wonis, damatebiTi zomis erTeulis,

gamgzavni/mimRebi qveynis mixedviT satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis

monacemTa bazis kontrols;

- ZiriTadi saqonlis mixedviT zRvruli fasis kontrols da

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi, axdens Rirebulebis, raodenobis, an damatebiTi

zomis erTeulis koreqtirebas;

statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri eyrdnoba ra saqonlis eqsport-

importis aRricxvis “sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo

nomenklaturas statistikuri Rirebulebis gaangariSebas axorcielebs aSS

dolarebSi sabaJo organoebis mier satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis

gaformebis momentSi Tbilisis bankTaSoris savaluto birJaze dadgenili

oficialuri gacvliTi kursiT.

rogorc aRvniSneT, sagareo vaWrobaSi saqarTvelo iyenebs aRricxvis

“zogad meTods”. Tumca qveynebis mier gamoyenebuli savaWro sistema

SeiZleba iyos `specialuri~. meTodis morgeba xdeba imisda mixedviT, Tu

ekonomikuri teritoriis ra nawils moicavs statistikuri teritoria.

Tu qveynis ekonomikuri da statistikuri teritoria erTmaneTs

emTxveva, maSin gamoiyeneba vaWrobis zogadi sistema. Sesabamisad, am dros

eqsportSi da importSi aRiricxeba yvela saqoneli, romelic

gadaadgildeba qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze. xolo, rodesac

statistikuri teritoria warmoadgens ekonomikuri teritoriis mxolod

garkveul nawils, gamoiyeneba specialuri sistema.

57

ganasxvaveben vaWrobis specialuri sistemis `viwro~ da `farTo~

gagebas. `viwro~ gageba gamoiyeneba im SemTxvevaSi, roca statistikuri

teritoria moicavs mxolod Tavisufali mimoqcevis zonas anu ekonomikuri

teritoriis im nawils, sadac saqoneli SeiZleba realizebuli iqnas

yovelgvari sabaJo SezRudvebis gareSe. Aamitom, aseT SemTxvevaSi importSi

aisaxeba mxolod is saqoneli, romelic Seitaneba statistikuri aRricxvis

qveynis Tavisufali mimoqcevis zonaSi, xolo eqsporti moicavs mxolod im

saqonels, romelic gadis aseTi zonidan. aRniSnuli ganmartebis

Sesabamisad, saqoneli, romelic importirebulia Sida gadamuSavebisaTvis,

an Setanilia Tavisufal samrewvelo an savaWro zonaSi, aseve sabaJo

sawyobebSi, ar eqvemdebareba aRricxvas, radgan es saqoneli ar gaivlis

sabaJo kontrolis procedurebs Sida moxmarebisaTvis. analogiuri midgoma

gamoiyeneba eqsportis SemTxvevaSic.

`farTo~ gagebiT specialuri sistema gamoiyeneba, rodesac saqonliT

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistikaSi gaiTvaliswineba: a) saqonlis importi

Sida gadamuSavebis mizniT an gadamuSavebis Semdeg; b) Tavisufal savaWro

zonaSi importirebuli an aseTive zonidan eqsportirebuli saqoneli. 48

rogorc ukve avRniSneT, saqarTvelo iyenebs sagareo vaWrobis

aRricxvis zogad sistemas. amitom udaod sainteresoa mimovixiloT sagareo

vaWrobis aRricxvis sakiTxebi calke eqsportisa da importis mixedviT.

vaWrobis zogadi sistemis SemTxvevaSi saimporto nakadebis

gadaadgileba qveyanaSi xorcieldeba danarCeni msofliodan an sabaJo

tranzitis (roca tranzituli saqoneli rCeba qveynis ekonomikur

teritoriaze) Sedegad.

saimporto saqonelSi SeiZleba gamovyoT: ucxouri saqoneli (garda

makompensirebeli produqciisa, miRebuli gare gadamuSavebis Sedegad),

ucxouri saqoneli, romelic Sedgeba makompensirebeli produqciisgan

miRebuli gare gadamuSavebis Sedegad, adre eqsportirebuli erovnuli

warmoebis saqoneli (imave mdgomareobaSi, rogorSic iyo eqsportirebuli).

sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis zogadi sistemis dros saimporto

nakadebis gadaadgilebis mimarTulebis ganxilviT dgindeba, rom saimporto

48.Zebisauri, l. saqarTvelos sagareo-savaWro urTierTobebis statistikuri Seswavla.

disertacia. 2012, gv.28.

58

nakadebi gadaadgildebian: Tavisufali mimoqcevis, Sida gadamuSavebis an

Tavisufal industriul zonebSi da sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali

vaWrobis zonebSi.

zogad importSi erTiandeba eqvsi gansxvavebuli sasaqonlo nakadi, (maT

Soris ori warmoadgens reimports):

1) danarCeni msofliodan an sabaJo tranzitidan ucxouri saqonlis

importi sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufal vaWrobis zonaSi, (gare

gadamuSavebis Sedegad miRebuli makompensirebeli produqciis

garda);

2) danarCeni msofliodan an sabaJo tranzitidan Tavisufali mimoqceva,

Sida gadamuSavebis an Tavisufal industriul zonebSi ucxouri

saqonlis importi (garda gare gadamuSavebis Sedegad miRebuli

makompensirebeli produqciisa);


importi, romelic Sedgeba gare gadamuSavebis Sedegad miRebuli

makompensirebeli produqciisgan, Tavisufali mimoqcevis, Sida

gadamuSavebis an Tavisufal industriul zonebSi;


importi, romelic Sedgeba sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali vaWrobis

zonaSi gare gadamuSavebis Sedegad miRebuli makompensirebeli

produqciisgan;

5) Eerovnuli (samamulo) warmoebis saqoneli imave formiT, ra

formiTac adre iyo eqsportirebuli danarCeni msofliodan an

sabaJo tranzitidan Tavisufali mimoqcevis, Sida gadamuSavebis an

Tavisufal industriul zonebSi;

6) Eerovnuli(samamulo) warmoebis saqoneli imave formiT, ra

formiTac adre iyo eqsportirebuli, danarCeni msofliodan an

sabaJo tranzitidan sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali vaWrobis

zonaSi.49

49 Internationas Merchandnise Trade Stistics. Compilers Manual. New York.2004. p. 35-39.

http://geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/georgian/methodology/macro/International%20Merchandise%20Trade%20Stati

stics.pdf

59

aRricxvis zogadi sistemiT eqsportis dros saeqsporto nakadebi

gadaadgildebian:

Tavisufali mimoqcevis zonidan, Sida gadamuSavebis teritoriidan

an Tavisufali industriuli zonebidan;

sabaJo sawyobebidan an Tavisufali vaWrobis zonebidan;

saeqsporto nakadebSi aisaxeba: erovnuli saqoneli, romelic

warmoebulia Tavisufal industriul zonebSi an gadaadgilebulia

Tavisufali mimoqcevis zonidan; erovnuli warmoebis saqoneli Sida

gadamuSavebis Semdeg, romelic Sedgeba makompensirebeli produqciisgan,

anu produqcia miRebulia damuSavebis, gadamuSavebis an SekeTebis Sedegad;

ucxouri warmoebis saqoneli imave mdgomareobaSi, rogorSic adre iyo

importirebuli.

radgan saeqsporto nakadebis mimarTulebaa – danarCeni msoflio,

amitom `zogadi~ sistemiT eqsportSi SesaZlebelia gaerTiandes eqvsi

sxvadasxva nakadi (romelTagan ori warmoadgens reeqsports):

1. danarCen msoflioSi erovnuli warmoebis saqonelis nakadi,

romelic gadaadgildeba Tavisufali mimoqcevis an Tavisufali

industriuli zonidan;

2. uSualod danarCen msoflioSi Tavisufali vaWrobis an sabaJo

sawyobis zonidan eqsportirebuli erovnuli warmoebis saqonlis

nakadi, romelic gadaadgildeba Tavisufali mimoqcevis an

Tavisufali industriuli zonidan;

3. danarCen msoflioSi damuSavebis, gadamuSavebis an SekeTebis

Sedegad miRebuli erovnuli saqonlis eqsporti;


sawyobis zonidan erovnuli saqonlis eqsporti Sida gadamuSavebis

Sedegad, romelic Sedgeba makompensirebeli produqciisagan;

5. uSualod danarCen msoflioSi Tavisufali mimoqcevis, Sida

gadamuSavebisa da Tavisufali industriuli zonebidan ucxouri

warmoebis saqonlis reeqsporti imave formiT, rogorc iyo

importirebuli;

60


sawyobis zonidan ucxouri warmoebis saqonlis reeqsporti imave

formiT, rogorc iyo importirebuli.50

zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare SegviZlia CamovayaliboT gansxvavebani

sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis zogad da specialur sistemebs Soris.

mizanSewonilia `saeqsporto nakadebisa `saimporto nakadebis Sedareba

sagareo vaWrobis zogad da specialur sistemaSi ganvixiloT calk-calke.

sqema #1.

saeqsporto nakadebis Sedareba sagareo vaWrobis zogad da specialur

sistemaSi(a)

Eeqsportizogadi

sistema

specialuri

sistema

erovnuli saqoneli

(garda makompensirebeli produqciisa Sida gadamuSavebis Semdeg)

Tavisufali mimoqcevis an Tavisufali

samrewvelo zonidan

1. danarCen msoflioSi X X

2. sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali vaWrobis

zonaSi warmoSobili Tavisufali mimoqcevis X

an Tavisufal industriul zonebSi, magram

eqsportirebuli sabaJo sawyobidan an

Tavisufali vaWrobis zonidan.

3. danarCen msoflioSi X[51]

erovnuli saqoneli

(makompensirebeli produqcia Sida gadamuSavebis Semdeg)

Sida gadamuSavebis adgilidan

50Zebisauri, l. saqarTvelos sagareo-savaWro urTierTobebis statistikuri Seswavla.

disertacia. Tbilisi, 2012, gv, 28-30.

[51] am kategorias miekuTvneba erovnuli warmoebis saqoneli, romlebic Tavdapirvelad

Seitaneba sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali vaWrobis zonaSi Tavisufali mimoqcevis an

Tavisufali industriuli zonidan da Semdgom xdeba maTi eqsportireba.

61

4. danarCen msoflioSi X X


zonaSi warmoSobili Sida gadamuSavebis X

adgilas, magram eqsportirebuli sabaJo

sawyobidan an Tavisufali vaWrobis zonidan

6. danarCen msoflioSi X[52]

ucxouri warmoebis saqoneli imave mdgomareobaSi, rogorSic adre

iyvnen importirebuli

Tavisufali mimoqcevis zonidan, Sida

gadamuSavebis adgilidan an Tavisufali

industriuli zonidan

7. danarCen msoflioSi RX RX


zonaSi sabaJo sawyobidan an RX

Tavisufali vaWrobis zonidan

9. danarCen msoflioSi RX

(a) aRniSvnebi: X = eqsporti; RX = reeqsporti53

sqema #2.

saimporto nakadebis Sedareba sagareo vaWrobis zogad da specialur

sistemaSi(a)

Importizogadi

sistema

specialuri

sistema

ucxouri saqoneli

(garda makompensirebeli produqciisa gare gadamuSavebis Semdeg)

52 am kategorias miekuTvneba makompensirebeli saqoneli, romelic Tavdapirvelad

gadaizideba sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali vaWrobis zonaSi Sida gadamuSavebis

adgilidan da Sedegad xdeba misi eqsportireba.

53 Internationas Merchandnise Trade Stistics . Compilers Manual. New York.2004. p.84

62

danarCeni msofliodan an sabaJo tranzitidan

1. Tavisufali mimoqcevis zonaSi, Sida

gadamuSavebis teritoriaze an Tavisufal

industriul zonebSi

M M


zonaSiM

sabaJo sawyobidan an Tavisufali vaWrobis

zonidan



industriul zonebSi

M[54]

ucxouri saqoneli

(makompensirebeli produqcia gare gadamuSavebis Semdeg)

danarCeni msofliodan an sabaJo tranzitidan



industriul zonebSi

M M


zonaSi sabaJo sawyobidan anM




industriul zonebSiM[55]

54 am kategorias miekuTvneba ucxouri warmoebis saqoneli (makompensirebeli produqciis

garda) gare gadamuSavebis Sedegad, romelic Tavdapirvelad gadaizideba sabaJo sawyobSi

an Tavisufali vaWrobis zonaSi da Sedegad xdeba misi importireba.

55 am kategorias miekuTvneba ucxouri warmoebis saqoneli, romelic Sedgeba

makompensirebeli produqciisagan gare gadamuSavebis Semdeg da romelic Tavdapirvelad

gadaizideba sabaJo sawyobSi an Tavisufali vaWrobis zonaSi da Sedegad xdeba misi

importireba.

63

erovnuli warmoebis saqoneli

imave mdgomareobaSi, rogorSic adre iyvnen eqsportirebuli

sabaJo sawyobidan an Tavisufali vaWrobis

zonidan



industriul zonebSi

RM RM


zonaSi sabaJo sawyobidan anRM




industriul zonebSi

RM[56]

(a) aRniSvnebi: M = importi; RM = reimporti57

rogorc vxedavT vaWrobis specialuri sistema ar gulisxmobs yvela

saxis saqonlis aRricxvas, es ki imas niSnavs, rom misi statistikuri

mocvis areali mcirea. Sedegad miRebuli monacemebis srulyofilebis

xarisxs kidev ufro akninebs is faqti, rom sxvadasva qveynebSi misi

gamoyenebisadmi ar arsebos erTnairi midgoma. es cxadia qmnis monacemTa

Seusabamobas, rac saerTaSoriso statistikis praqtikaSi erT-erTi

seriozul problemas warmoadgens. Aamis naTel magaliTad SegviZlia

movitanoT is faqti, rom statistikuri aRricxvisas qveynebis nawili

iyenebs vaWrobis specialur sistemas `viwro~ gagebiT, xolo umravlesoba

iyenebs `farTo~ gagebis sxvadasxva variantebs da statistikur aRricxvaSi

Seyavs Tavisufali sabaJo zonebis mxolod nawili.

56 am kategorias miekuTvneba erovnuli warmoebis saqoneli imave mdgomareobaSi, rogorSic

adre iyo eqsportirebuli da romelic Tavdapirvelad gadaizideba sabaJo sawyobSi an

Tavisufali vaWrobis zonaSi da Sedegad xdeba misi importireba.

57 Internationas Merchandnise Trade Stistics. Compilers Manual. New York.2004, pp.85.

64

rogorc cnobilia, evrokavSiris qveynebSi gamoiyeneba sagareo vaWrobis

aRricxvis specialuri sistema, Tumca aqac vxvdebiT aRricxvis

zemoTxsenebul sxvadasxva variantebs, rac arTulebs evrokavSiris wevr

qveynebs Soris monacemTa urTierTSesadarisobas.

zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare uTuod sainteresoa ganvixiloT, Tu

rogori Sinaarsobrivi datvirTva gaaCnia statistikur teritorias

msoflios sxvadasxva qveynebis mixedviT.

Aarsebobs qveynebi, sadac statistikuri teritoria ar moicavs

Tavisufal zonebs da sabaJo sawyobebs. Eesenia: argentina, aruba, avstria,

islandia, monRoleTi, panama, portugalia, slovakeTi, slovenia, TurqeTi,

urugvai; zogierT qveynebSi, statistikuri teritoria ar moicavs

Tavisufal zonebs. magaliTad: kubaSi, quveiTSi, yirgizeTSi, madagaskarSi,

niderlandebSi, rumineTsa da SveicariaSi. SvedeTSi statistikuri

teritoria ar moicavs sabaJo sawyobs da statistikuri teritoria

formirebulia ZiriTadad Tavisufali mimoqcevis arealiT luqsemburgSi.

gaerTianebul samefoSi statistikuri teritoria moicavs mxolod sabaJo

kontrolis qveS myof Tavisufal zonebs da sabaJo sawyobebs. ungreTSi ki

teritoria ar moicavs komerciul Tavisufal zonebs da sabaJo sawyobebs,

garda samrewvelo saqmianobisaTvis Seqmnili kerZo sabaJo sawyobebisa.

saqarTveloSi statistikuri teritoria moicavs: Tavisufali mimoqcevis

zonas, sabaJo sawyobs da Tavisufal industriul zonebs.

Ddasasruls daskvnis saxiT SegviZlia vTqvaT, rom sagareo vaWrobis

aRricxvis zogadi sistema specialurTan SedarebiT sagareo savaWro

nakadebs aRricxavs ufro srulad.

sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis zogadi sistema aseve, uzrunvelyofs ufro

met miaxloebas saqonlis mflobelis cvlilebis kriteriumTan. romelic

rekomendirebulia saerTaSoriso meTodologiebSi (erovnul angariSTa

sistemisa (SNA 2008) da sagadasaxdelo balansis (BPM6) agebis

meTodologia).

evrokavSiris qveynebSi gamoiyeneba sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis

specialuri sistema. cnobilia, rom evrokavSiris qveynebSi vxvdebiT

aRricxvis zemoTxsenebuli specialuri sistemis sxvadasxva variantebs,

saqme imaSia, am qveynebSi informaciis ZiriTad wyaros permanentuli

65

kvlevebi warmoadgens, xolo saqarTveloSi finansTa saministros

Semosavlebis samsaxuridan miRebuli satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis

monacemebi. amitom daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba aRvniSnoT, rom nakadebis

saerTaSoriso moZraobis registraciisas, saqarTveloSi gamoyenebul unda

iyos sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis zogadi sistema, rac rekomendebulia,

saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier.

2.3 saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis statistikuri

aRricxvis problemebi da maTi gadaWris gzebi

dRes, rodesac saqarTvelos sagareo interesebSi mowinave evropuli

faseulobebisa da gamocdilebis gaziareba da evrokavSirSi gaerTianeba

Sedis, gansakuTrebiT aqtualuria erovnuli statistikis ,,modernizebis“

sakiTxi, romlis Tanmdevi procesia „asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis“ im

ZiriTadi parametrebis implementacia, romelTac miekuTvneba: erovnuli

statistikis sistemis SesaZleblobebis ganviTareba drouli, saerTaSoriso

doneze Sedarebadi da saimedo statistikuri monacemebis uzrunvelyofis

gziT. es obieqturad gardauvali, Seuqcevadi procesia da aqtualuria

gansakuTrebiT dRes, radgan dRes ukve aucilebelia am mimarTulebiT

statistikis srulyofa saerTaSoriso standartebTan maqsimaluri

harmonizaciis uzrunvelsayofad. Tumca dRes, saqarTvelos evropasTan

mimdinare ekonomikuri integraciis fonze, TvalsaCino xdeba statistikuri

aRricxvis ZiriTadi problemebi, romelTa daZleva statistikis erovnul

samsaxurs axali gamowvevebis winaSe ayenebs.

pirvel rigSi unda aRiniSnos is, rom arasrulyofilad xdeba

satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciaSi saqonlis warmoSobis qveynis dafiqsireba.

sagareo vaWrobis monacemTa bazebSi ZiriTadad fiqsirdeba movaWre qveyana

da ara saqonlis warmoSobis qveyana. mag., 2014 wlis ivnisis bazaSi

warmoSobis qveyana ar weria deklaraciebis 64%-Si, rogorc axali

meTodologiuri rekomendaciebiT, ise DCFTA-is (evrokavSirTan Rrma da

66

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba) farglebSic

aucilebelia sagareo vaWrobaSi warmoSobis qveynis aRricxva.

meore mxriv, aRsaniSnavia, rom sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis erT-erTi

problema satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciaSi velis - „satransporto saSualeba

sazRvarze“ Sevsebaa. saqme imaSia, rom saqonliT sagareo vaWrobis axali

rekomendaciebis Tanaxmad, aucilebelia satransporto saSualebebis

mixedviT sagareo vaWrobis statistikis warmoeba. es SesaZlebeli iyo 2010

wlamde, magram deklaraciebis Sevsebaze droiTi SezRudvis dawesebis

Semdeg, aRniSnuli velis Sevseba nebayoflobiTi gaxda, ramac gamoiwvia is,

rom 2010 wlidan sagareo vaWrobis monacemebi transportis WrilSi (ra

satransporto saSualebiT ganxorcielda saqonlis importi qveyanaSi an

eqsporti sazRvargareT) aRar muSavdeba.

mesame, Sss-is momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebSi xorcieldeba

importirebuli avtomobilebis Sesaxeb zusti da ara miaxloebiTi sabazro

Rirebulebis miwera. es iwvevs garkveuli Seusabamobis warmoSobas, radgan

momsaxurebis saagentodan yovelTviurad miRebul monacemTa bazebSi

importirebuli, eqsportirebuli da reeqsportirebuli satransporto

saSualebebis Sesaxeb miTiTebulia saqonlis miaxloebiTi sabazro

Rirebuleba. swored es aris im gansxvavebis mizezi, romelic fiqsirdeba

Semosavlebis samsaxuris monacemTa bazebsa da Sss-is momsaxurebis

saagentos monacemTa bazebs Soris.

am sakiTxis erTgvar gagrZelebas warmoadgens momsaxurebis saagentos

monacemTa bazebSi importirebuli avtomobilebisaTvis Sesabamisi kodebis

sworad miniWebis sakiTxi. am sakiTxis dasma ganapiroba im garemoebam, rom

zogierT SemTxvevaSi areulia axali da eqspluataciaSi namyofi

avtomanqanebis kodebi, deklaraciebis nawilSi ki saqonlis kodebi saerTod

ar fiqsirdeba. garda amisa, momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebSi

eqsportisa da reeqsportis SemTxvevaSi qveynis kodebis srulad miniWeba ar

xdeba (magaliTad, 2014 wlis ivnisis monacemTa bazaSi deklaraciebis 8%-s

ar uweria qveyana.) aRniSnuli velis Sevseba ki aucilebelia sagareo

vaWrobis statistikis warmoebisTvis qveynebis WrilSi.

unda aRiniSnos, rom momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebSi

avtomanqanebis pirdapir reeqsportad gaformebis SemTxvevaSi ucnobi rCeba

67

am avtomanqanis importiori qveyana, importirebis TariRi da saimporto

Rirebuleba, radgan aRniSnul saqonelze saimporto deklaracia ar

formdeba. saWiro da aucilebelia pirdapir reeqsportis reJimiT

deklarirebul satransporto saSualebebze importis qveynis, TariRisa da

Rirebulebis dafiqsireba statistikuri miznebisaTvis. winaaRmdeg

SemTxvevaSi iqmneba iseTi situacia, rom eqsportze gayvanilia manqana,

romelic qveynis importSi ar aris asaxuli. Sedegad eqsportirebuli

manqanebis raodenoba aWarbebs importis moculobas, rac statistikuri

TvalsazrisiT gaumarTlebelia da balansis damyareba SeuZlebelia.

erT-erTi mniSvnelovani problemaa gamartivebuli sabaJo deklaraciis

(forma #4) srulyofilad Sevseba qveynebis, TerTmetniSna doneze saqonlis

kodebisa da Rirebulebis miTiTebiT. Ffaqtobrivad, gamartivebuli sabaJo

deklaracia (forma #4) ar iTvaliswinebs saqonlis warmoSobis qveynis,

saqonlis kodis da sazRvarze satransporto saSualebis aRricxvas.

saqonlis aRwerilobac ar aris iseTi detaluri, rom SesaZlebeli iyos

misTvis zusti kodis miniWeba sasaqonlo nomenklaturis mixedviT. yvela

deklaraciaSi ar fiqsirdeba saqonlis Rirebuleba. gamartivebuli sabaJo

deklaraciis gamoyenebis mizania sabaJo damuSavebis operaciebis

ganxorcielebisaTvis daxarjuli drois Semcireba. es ki problemas qmnis

eqsportis srulyofilad aRricxvis mimarTulebiT. aseTi gziT ZiriTadad

mezobel qveynebSi gadis soflis meurneobis produqtebi, rac faqtiurad

eqsportSi ar Cans.

dResdReobiT, jer kidev problematuria sabaJo sawyobidan reeqsportis

reJimiT tvirTebis imave qveyanaSi gatanis aRricxvis sakiTxi, saidanac

moxda Semotana (garda ukan dabrunebisa), aRricxvis srulyofisaTvis

aucilebelia imis gaTvaliswineba, rom aseTi tvirTebis aRricxva unda

moxdes im SemTvevaSi rodesac ucxoel myidvels urCevnia saqonlis miReba

imave qveynidan, saidanac moxda dasawyobeba.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis aRricxvis srulyofisaTvis didi

mniSvneloba aqvs zogierTi operaciebisaTvis 747400 reJimis miniWebas (garda

mesakuTris Secvlisa); amis aucilebloba Cndeba maSin, rodesac xdeba erTi

terminalidan meoreSi gadasawyobeba; SesaZloa aq moeqces iseTi

68

deklaraciebi, romlebic droebiTi reJimiT iyo Semotanili, magram Semdeg

gadaitanes sawyobSi.

aRricxvis TvalsazrisiT garkveul problemebs qmnis is faqtic, rom

Tvis bazaSi zog deklaraciaze ar aris miTiTebuli gamomgzavni da

saboloo daniSnulebis qveyana (es sakiTxi exeba rogorc sawyobs, ise

Cveulebriv reJimebs) da radgan kanonmdeblobiT savaldebuloa aRniSnuli

velis Sevseba, Semosavlebis samsaxuris mxridan sakiTxisadmi

gansakuTrebuli yuradRebis miqcevis Semdeg avtomatur reJimSi

mowesrigdeba bazis srulyofis sakiTxi.

mouwesrigebelia saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis mier specdaniSnulebis

tvirTis deklarirebis sakiTxi (unda aRiniSnos, rom aseTi tvirTebi bolo

1 wlis ganmavlobaSi fiqsirdeba) es ZiriTadad exeba im banknotebs,

romelic aqamde Sesabamis ses sn kodSi tardeboda.

aRricxvis mowesrigebisa da sagareo vaWrobis sainformacio bazis

srulyofis mizniT aucilebelia dadgindes valutis saxe: es erovnuli

valutaa Tu ucxouri. mxolod amis mixedviT ganisazRvreba unda aisaxos

Tu ara sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi aRniSnuli tvirTebi. saqme imaSia,

rom erovnuli bankis moTxovniT da miRweuli SeTanxmebiT, banknotebis

eqsport-importis warmoeba "grifiT saidumlo" gaxda, ris gamoc xdeba misi

deklarireba "specdaniSnulebis tvirTi"-s saxelwodebiT.

garkveuli xarvezebi arsebobs 99050000000 kodiT deklarirebuli

tvirTebis aRricxvis sferoSi (am kodiT deklarirebuli iyo humanitaruli

tvirTebi). amitom aranakleb mniSvnelovania imis garkveva, 99050000000 kodiT

deklarirebuli yvela saqoneli diplomatiuri tvirTi an nebismieri

ararezidentis mier droebiT Semotanili saqonelia Tu ara.

rogorc wesi, gadamuSavebis SemTxvevaSi mza saqoneli unda dabrundes

im qveyanaSi, saidanac moxda nedleulis an naxevarfabrikatis

Setana/Semotana. deklaraciebSi xSirad ase ar fiqsirdeba, SesaZloa erTi

qveynidan Semosuli tvirTi (nedleuli) gadamuSavebis reJimiT,

gadamuSavebis Semdeg gavides sxva qveyanaSi. realurad garigebis pirobis

Tanaxmad, SesaZlebelia gadamuSavebis Semdeg saqonlis miwodeba moxdes

mesame qveyanaze. dReisaTvis sabaJos mier gadamuSavebisa da remontis

reJimebis gamijvna SeuZlebelia.

69

eqsportsa da imports Soris garkveul disbalanss iwvevs mocemul

vadaSi avtomanqanis eqsportirebis SemTxvevaSi pirdapiri reeqsportis

deklaraciis gaformeba, ris gamoc aRniSnuli avtomanqana ar fiqsirdeba

importSi (fizikuri pirebis mier avtomanqanis Semoyvanisas

gaTvaliswinebulia saSeRavaTo periodi ganbaJebamde).

eqport-importis statistikuri aRricxbisas erT-erT problemas

arasworad miniWebuli reJimebi warmoadgens. saqme imaSia, rom roca

importis reJimSi xvdeba saqoneli, eniWeba qarTuli saqonlis statusi, misi

qveynidan gatanis dros formdeba Cveulebrivi eqsportis reJimi da ara

reeqsporti. mosagvarebelia droebiTi reJimebis aRniSvnis problema, rac

SeZlebisdagvarad sabaJos mxridan unda mowesrigdes. radgan zogjer

saqonlis imports da eqsports afiqsirebs erTi da igive kompania,

realurad es reeqsportia, magram ufiqsirdeba Cveulebrivi eqsportis

reJimi; zogjer aRiniSneba iseTi SemTxvevebi, rodesac saqonels

aRwerilobaSi uweria „ukan dabrunebis piroba“, Tumca reJimSi es ar aris

asaxuli, anu miniWebuli unda hqondes droebiTi reJimi; raodenobis velSi

yvela saqonels ar ewereba ses sn HS2012-Si dafiqsirebuli damatebiTi

zomis erTeuli, mag.: spirtian sasmelebs - absoluturi alkoholi,

sigaretebs - Rerebi. dabegvris miznebidan gamomdinare, kerZod ki aqcizis

gadasaxadis gansazRvris mizniT, sabaJo sigaretebs aRricxavs kolofebSi,

xolo sasmelebs - litrebSi. programa avtomaturad angariSobs dasabegr

Tanxas.

P problemebia sagareo vaWrobis fasebis indeqsebis agebis sakiTxSic.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis jer kidev 2002 wlis ROSC (Report on

Observance of Standards and Codes) misiis angariSis Tanaxmad, saqarTvelos mieca

rekomendacia daewyo eqsport-importis indeqsebis warmoeba, romelic

garkveuli mizezebis gamo ar ganxorcielda.

2012 wels saqarTveloSi Camosuli ssf-is misiam kvlav gamokveTa

sagareo vaWrobis indeqsebis agebis problema, radgan sagareo vaWrobis

indeqsebiT unda ganxorcieldes saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobaSi arsebuli

tendenciebisa da dinamikis zusti Sefaseba. eqsportisa da importis fasebis

indeqsebi gamoiyeneba qveynis mTliani Sida produqtis gasaangariSeblad

danaxarjebis meTodiT mudmiv fasebSi da sxva

70

marTalia arasakmarisi informaciulobis gamo problemebia sagareo

vaWrobis indeqsebis agebisas, magram dRes ukve SesaZlebelia eqsportis

(importis) moculobis Seswavla Sesadar fasebSi da Sesabamisad, misi

fizikuri moculobisa da fasebis ineqsebis gaangariSeba. es sagareo

vaWrobis statistikuri SefasebisaTvis aucilebelia, rdgan mis dinamikaze

did gavlenas axdens fasebis cvlileba. 2015 wlis ianvridan daiwyo swored

saeqsporto produqciis fasebis ideqsebis ageba da gaangariSeba, rac udaod

mniSvnelovani faqtia. eqsportis fasi gamoxatavs warmoebuli saqonlis

fasebis saSualo donis maCvenebels sabazo periodTan SedarebiT. es

indeqsi aigeba da gamoiyeneba rogorc kerZo, aseve saxelmwifo

seqtorSi sxvadasxva kontraqtis indeqsaciisTvis, igi asrulebs

mniSvnelovan rols sxvadasxva ekonomikuri maCveneblis deflirebis

procesSi. saeqsporto produqciis fasebis indeqsi aris analitikuri

instrumenti biznesis sferos warmomadgenlebisa da mkvlevarebisTvis.58

eqsportis fasebis indeqsi moicavs ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis

klasifikatoris evropuli standartis, NACE-is Sesabamis Semdeg seqciebs:

samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba (C seqcia), damamuSavebeli mrewveloba (D

seqcia), eleqtroenergiis, airisa da wylis warmoeba da ganawileba (E

seqcia). fasebis Segroveba xdeba mTeli qveynis masStabiT adgilobriv

sawarmoebSi gamoSvebul produqciaze.

saeqsporto produqciis fasi, romelzec xdeba dakvirveba,

warmoadgens miTiTebul periodSi sawarmos mier warmoebul samrewvelo

produqtze dawesebul gasayid fass. saeqsporto produqciis fasebis

indeqsi asaxavs mwarmoebelTa mier warmoebuli produqciis Rirebulebis

cvlilebas. mwarmoeblis fasi aris warmoebuli produqtis fasi sawarmos

karTan da ar moicavs damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxads, aqcizs da

transportirebis xarjebs.

unda aRiniSnos, rom saeqsporto produqciis fasebis indeqsSi

individualuri saqonlis wonebis ganaxleba yovelwliurad xdeba, rac

efuZneba erovnul angariSTa sistemiT gansazRvrul warmoebis struqturas.

58 samrewvelo produqciis mwarmoebelTa fasebis indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologiuri

saxelmZRvanelo. Tb., 2014, gv.3.

71

es wonebi faqtiurad warmoadgens warmoebuli saqonlis Rirebulebis wils

qveynis masStabiT warmoebuli saqonlis mTlian RirebulebaSi. saangariSo t

periodis wonebisTvis sabazo periodad gamoiyeneba t-2 periodis monacemebi.

wonebis yovelwliuri ganaxlebis dros SeiZleba Seicvalos indeqsSi

Semavali samrewvelo saqonlis CamonaTvalic.

Tu saangariSo periodSi romelime sawarmos mier ar diqsirdeba

konkretuli produqtis fasi, maSin indeqsis gaangariSebisas statistikaSi

gamoiyeneba imputaciis meTodi.

Tu romelime TveSi, Tu erT-erT saeqsporto produqtze, fasi ar aris

registrirebuli, maSin am produqtis imputirebuli indeqsi iqneba im

jgufis indeqsi, sadac Sedis es produqti. jgufis indeqsi gaiangariSeba

masSi Semavali produqtebis realuri fasebis indeqsebis mixedviT. xolo Tu

saangariSo TveSi jgufSi Semaval arcerT saeqsporto produqtze fasi ar

dafiqsirda, maSin maTTvis imputirebuli indeqsebi gaiangariSeba am

produqtebis zeda donis jgufis indeqsis mixedviT, ekonomikuri

saqmianobis saxeebis klasifikatoris (NACE) struqturis Sesabamisad.

SeiZleba droTa ganmavlobaSi sawarmom gaaumjobesos produqciis xarisxi,

amitom aRar moxdes imave xarisxis produqciis warmoeba, romlis fasebzec

xorcieldeboda dakvirveba. aucilebeli xdeba axal da Zvel produqtebze

daregistrirebuli fasebis Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyoba. amisaTvis saWiroa

,,xarisxobrivi cvlilebis koreqtirebis" meTodebis gamoyeneba. am dros

aucilebelia pirobiTi sabazo fasis gaangariSeba. statistikis erovnuli

samsaxuri calkeul SemTxvevebSi koreqtirebis gansxvavebuli midgomebiT

ayalibebs fasebs. kerZod:

1.Tu saangariSo TveSi Semcvleli produqti xarisxobrivad

gansxvavdeba wina Tvis produqtisgan da Tanxobrivad gamoxatuli

xarisxobrivi sxvaoba cnobilia, maSin kiTxvaris Sevsebaze pasuxismgebeli

piris mier dafiqsirebuli xarisxobrivi sxvaobisa da wina Tvis fasis

gamoyenebiT gaiangariSeba Semcvleli produqtis sabazo fasi.

2.Tu saangariSo TveSi SesaZlebelia Semcvleli produqtis wina Tvis

fasis dafiqsireba, maSin am fasisa da wina Tvis indeqsis gamoyenebiT

gaiangariSeba Semcvleli produqtis sabazo fasi.

72

3.Tu saangariSo TveSi registratorisTvis cnobili xdeba, rom erTi

brendi saangariSo Tvidan gayidvaSi aRar iqneba, xolo saqonelSemcvlel

meore brendze xarisxobrivi sxvaobisa da wina Tvis fasis Sesaxeb

informaciis mopoveba SeuZlebelia, maSin saangariSo TveSi pirveli

brendis wina Tvis fassa da meore brendze mimdinare TveSi dafiqsirebul

fass Soris sxvaoba mTlianad miewereba xarisxobriv gansxvavebas.59

saeqsporto produqciis fasebis indeqsis gaangariSebisas umciresi

donis indeqsi es aris TiToeuli sawarmos mier saeqsportod warmoebuli

individualuri produqtisTvis gaangariSebuli indeqsi, romelic aigeba

eqsportis saangariSo (t) da sabazo periodebis fasebis fardobiT.

00/

i

tit

i ppI

sadac: i - saeqsporto (sawarmos mier warmoebuli) produqti, romlisTvisac

dafiqsirda Sesadari fasi;0/t

iI aris i-uri saeqsporto produqtis umciresi

donis indeqsi saangariSo t periodSi indeqsis sabazo periodTan SedarebiT;

tiP PP– i-uri saeqsporto produqtis fasi t periodSi;

0iP - i-uri saeqsporto

produqtis fasi fasebis sabazo periodSi.

eqsportis fasebis grZelvadiani indeqsi fasebis sabazo periodTan

SedarebiT laspeiresis tipis Semdegi formuliT gamoiTvleba:

n

ibi

ti

t sII1

0/0/ )(,

sadac,0/t

iI aris i-uri saeqsporto produqtis umciresi donis grZelvadiani

indeqsi fasebis sabazo periodTan SedarebiT.

b

ibi

bi

bib

i qpqps

aris i-uri saeqsporto produqtis wona


saxelmZRvanelo. Tb., 2014, gv.7.

73

wonebis sabazo periodSi, romelic warmoadgens warmoebuli i--uri

produqtis wils warmoebis mTlian moculobaSi da

n

ibis

11.

bip - SerCeuli sawarmos mier warmoebuli i -uri produqtis fasi wonebis

sabazo (b) periodSi;

biq - wonebis sabazo (b) periodSi warmoebuli i-uri produqtis raodenoba.60

amave formuliT xdeba yvela zeda donis indeqsis gaangariSeba.

magaliTad, seqciis indeqsi miiReba masSi Semavali produqtebis

grZelvadiani indeqsebis SewonviT, sadac seqciaSi Semavali produqtebis

indeqsebis wonebis jami udris 100%-s.

moklevadiani indeqsi wina TvesTan SedarebiT miiReba fasebis sabazo

periodTan SedarebiT gaangariSebuli saangariSo da wina periodis

grZelvadiani indeqsebis fardobiT.

saeqsporto produqciisa da sawarmoebis SerCevis an saqonlis

specifikaciebis yovelwliuri ganaxlebis periodSi, dekembris TveSi,

mimdinareobs fasebis Segroveba rogorc Zvel, aseve axal SerCevaSi myofi

saqonlisTvis, rac gansxvavebuli SerCevisTvis gaangariSebuli indeqsebis

jaWvuri gadabmis saSualebas iZleva. wonebis cvlilebis miuxedavad,

indeqsebis jaWvuri gadabmiT SesaZlebelia indeqsis gaangariSeba

grZelvadiani sabazo periodiT.61

eqsportis fasebis indeqsis gaanalizebis mniSvnelovani etapia indeqsis

procentul cvlilebaSi jgufebis mier Setanili wvlilebis gamoTvla.

mTliani indeqsis cvlilebaSi calkeuli jgufis fasebis cvlilebis

wvlili gamoiTvleba im procentuli sxvaobiT, romelic mxolod am

jgufis indeqsis cvlilebiTaa gamowveuli, sxva danarCeni jgufebis

indeqsebis ucvlelobis pirobebSi. formalizebulad es SeiZleba CavweroT

Semdegnairad: i-uri produqtis wvlili Tvis indeqsSi62

60 samrewvelo produqciis marmoebelTa fasebis indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologiuri

saxelmZRvanelo. Tb., 2014, gv. 10.

61: www.geostat.ge http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/guides/cpi/index.htm


saxelmZRvanelo, gv.10.

74

ita

t

it

it

it w

II

II

1

1

1

100)1(

sadac:itI -i-uri produqtis indeqsi t periodSi;

itI 1 - i-uri produqtis indeqsi t

-1 periodSi;atI 1 - mTliani eqsportis fasebis indeqsi t -1 periodSi;

itw - i-uri produqtis wona t periodSi.

Tvis indeqsSi jgufis wonebi warmoadgens masSi Semavali calkeuli

produqtebis wonebis jams.

wonis cvlilebis SemTxvevaSi i-uri jgufis wvlili 12 Tvis indeqsSi

gamoiTvleba Semdegi formulis safuZvelze:63

i-uri jgufis wvlili 12 Tvis indeqsSi=

it

aLa

t

iti

tat

it

iL wI

IIw

III

1212

12

12 100100

sadac:iLI - iuri jgufis indeqsi wonebis cvlilebis periodSi;

itI 12 - i-uri jgufis indeqsi t-12 periodSi (wina sabazo periodi=100);atI 12 - saesporto produqciis fasebis indeqsia t-12 periodSi;

itw 12 - i-uri jgufis wona t-12 periodis warmoebis moculoba;

itI - i uri jgufis indeqsi t periodSi;aLI - produqciis fasebis indeqsi mTliani eqsportisTvis wonebis

cvlilebis periodSi;

itw -i uri jgufis wona t periodis warmoebis moculobaSi.

eqsportis fasebis indeqsis sacdeli gaangariSeba saqstatma 2013 wels

daiwyo. eqsportis fasebis indeqsi asaxavs qveyenaSi warmoebuli da

eqsportirebuli samrewvelo saqonlis fasebis cvlilebas. eqsportiori

sawarmoebis SerCeva da wonebis gaangariSeba xdeba sagareo vaWrobis

statistikis informaciaze dayrdnobiT. indeqsis gaangariSeba xdeba


saxelmZRvanelo Ggv,12.

75

samrewvelo produqciis mwarmoebelTa fasebis indeqsis meTodologiis

msgavsad. 2015 wlis ianvridan saqstatis veb gverdze qveyndeba eqsportis

fasebis indeqsi 2 WrilSi: wina TvesTan SedarebiT da wina wlis Sesabamis

TvesTan SedarebiT.

importis fasebis indeqsis sacdeli gaangariSeba daiwyo 2015 wlidan.

importis fasebis indeqsi asaxavs importirebuli samrewvelo produqciis

fasebis cvlilebas. importiori kompaniebis SerCeva da wonebis

gaangariSeba, iseve rogorc eqsportis fasebis indeqsisTvis, importis

SemTxvevaSic xdeba sagareo vaWrobis statistikis informaciaze

dayrdnobiT.

eqsport-importis fasebis indeqsebis agebisas erT-erT problematur

sakiTxs klasifikatorebis Sesabamisi detaluri konvertoris ar arseboba

warmoadgens. saqme imaSia, rom sagareo vaWrobis statistikis informacia

klasificirdeba sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo nomenklaturis

(HS 2012) mixedviT, xolo fasebis indeqsebis gaangariSeba xdeba ekonomikuri

saqmianobis saxeebis (NACE)Sesabamisad. aRsaniSnavia, rom klasifikatorebis

Sesabamisi detaluri konvertoris (HS-NACE) ar arseboba eqvsniSna doneze

produqciis mixedviT indeqsebis gaangariSebis saSualebas ar iZleva. am

etapze indeqsebis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba mxolod NACE–is4 niSna

jgufebis doneze. Aamitom sakiTxis mogvarebis erT-erT gzad qarTul enaze

klasifikatorebis SemuSaveba gvesaxeba.

cxadia, am xarvezebis aRmofxvris Semdeg SesaZlebeli gaxdeba fasebis

cvlilebis Tanafardobis anu „vaWrobis realuri pirobebis“ gansazRvra.

vaWrobis mTliani pirobebis maCvenebeli warmoadgens Tanafardobas

eqsportis fizikuri moculobis indeqssa da importis fizikuri moculobis

indeqss Soris. mniSvnelovania, rom amiT SesaZlebeli gaxdeba vaWrobis

pirobebis indeqsis ageba, rac formalizebulad Semdegnairad gamoisaxeba:

pir.vaWr.I =fasissaS.imp.

fasissaS.eqsp.

I

I,

sadac pir.vaWr.I _ ,,vaWrobis pirobebis indeqsia”;

76

fasissaS.eqsp.I _ eqsportis saSualo fasis indeqsi;

fasissaS.imp.I _ importis saSualo fasis indeqsi.

Tu „vaWrobis pirobebis“ indeqsi erTis tolia, maSin „vaWrobis

pirobebi“ saangariSo periodSi iseTive iyo, rogorc sabaziso periodSi; Tu

erTze naklebia, maSin saangariSo periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT

araxelsayreli „vaWrobis pirobebi“ aRiniSneba, xolo Tu indeqsi erTze

metia, maSin mocemul periodSi xelsayreli „vaWrobis pirobebia.“ fasebis

cvlilebis Tanafardoba SeiZleba ganvixiloT, rogorc eqsportis

fiqsirebuli fizikuri moculobis msyidvelobiTunarianobis indeqsi.

cxadia, yvela zemoTCamoTvlili, arasruli CamonaTvalia sagareo

vaWrobis statistikaSi im mosagvarebeli problemebisa, romlis arealic

gacilebiT farToa. statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris mier

ganxorcielebuli meTodologiuri da praqtikuli saqmianobebi am

problemebis gadaWrazea orientirebuli.

77

Tavi III saqarTvelos evropis bazarze integraciis ekonomikur-

statistikuri analizi da prognozireba

3.1 evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos savaWro urTierTobebis

statistikuri analizi

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done mniSvnelovnadaa

damokidebuli danarCen samyarosTan mis kavSirurTierTobebze, radgan

qveynebis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis doneebi msoflio bazrebis

liberalizaciisa da integraciuli procesebis fonze sul ufro met

gavlenas axdenen erTmaneTze. amitom mniSvnelovania qveynis sagareo

ekonomikuri kavSirurTierTobebis donisa da misi ganviTarebis

tendenciebis Seswavla statistikuri meTodebis saSualebiT. udavod didia

am meTodebis mniSvneloba erovnuli ekonomikis SefasebisaTvis, miTumetes

intergaciuli procesebis gaRrmavebis Tanamedrove donisa da maStabebis

pirobebSi.

dReisaTvis, sagareo savaWro operaciebis Sesaxeb, informaciis ZiriTad

wyaros warmoadgens satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa baza,

romelsac statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri yovelTviurad iRebs

saqarTvelos finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxuridan. saqstati am

informaciis safuZvelze axorcielebs: satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis

monacemTa bazis kontrols, im saqonlis amoRebas Semosavlebis samsaxuris

monacemTa bazidan, romelic ar ganekuTvneba saqonliT sagareo vaWrobas.

akontrolebs ZiriTadi saqonlis mixedviT zRvrul fass da Sesabamisad,

axdens raodenobis, Rirebulebis an damatebiTi zomis erTeulis

koreqtirebas da a.S.

oficialuri statistikuri monacemebis Tanaxmad, 2008-2014 wlebSi

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis brunva 47%-iT gaizarda, aqedan eqsporti

gaizarda 91,4%-iT, xolo importi 36,0%-iT.Aamis miuxedavad dRes

saqarTvelos mTavar problemad kvlav uaryofiTi savaWro balansi rCeba.64

saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansis saldo 2014 wlis monacemebiT -

64 gaangariSebani warmoebulia saqstatis monacemebis safuZvelze.

78

5735 mln aSS dolaria, rac 2008 welTan SedarebiT 19,3 %-iTaa gazrdili. es

ki iseTi patara qveynisaTvis, rogoric saqarTveloa sakmaod maRali

maCvenebelia. Tumca, amave periodSi eqsportisa da importis

saSualowliuri zrdis tempebma Sesabamisad 111,3% da 105,2% Seadgina.

1995-2014 wlebis eqsportisa da importis dinamikidan vlindeba

importis zrdis tempebis mkveTri zrdis tendencia. adgilobriv bazarze

qarTuli produqciis adgils ucxouri iaffasiani, xSir SemTxvevaSi,

uxarisxo produqcia ikavebs. Sedegad, vRebulobT imas, rom saqarTveloSi

samomxmareblo bazari gajerebulia importirebuli produqciiT. miuxedavad

imisa, rom importis zrdis paralelurad SeiniSneba eqsportis zrdis

tendencia, jer kidev dabalia eqsportis zrdis tempebi. bolo monacemebiT

importi eqsports aRemateba 3-jer.65

2008-2014 wlebSi saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva saSualod 6,7%-

iT gaizarda, magram aseve gaizarda savaWro deficitic. 2014 wels 2008

welTan SedarebiT sagareo vaWrobis uaryofiTi saldo 19,3%-iT, xolo

saSualo wliurad 2,9%-iT gaizarda. imis miuxedavad, rom gafarTovda

vaWrobis geografia da gaizarda savaWro partniori qveynebis raodenoba,

romelmac bolo monacemebiT 145 qveyana Seadgina, mainc ar moxda eqsportis

importiT gadafarvis koeficientis zrda. 2013-2014 wlebSi im qveynebis

ricxvi, romelTanac saqarTvelos dadebiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 40-dan 43-

mde gaizarda, magram 94-dan 102-mde gaizarda aseve im qveynebis ricxvic

visTanac saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi aqvs. Aamave periodSi

ZiriTadSi ar Secvlila saeqsporto sasaqonlo struqturac.

miuxedavad imisa, rom 2014 wlis uaryofiTi savaWro balansi 5735 mln.

aSS dolaria (rac wina welTan SedarebiT 12%-iTaa gazrdili) da sakmaod

maRal maCvenebels warmoadgens Cveni qveynisaTvis, mainc maRalia rogorc

eqsportisa da importis wliuri maCvenebeli, aseve mTlianad savaWro

brunvis maCvenebeli, romelmac 11457 mln. aSS dolars gadaaWarba. amave

periodSi sistematurad izrdeboda eqsportis wili, romelmac 2014 wels

65 Abesadze O. The dynamics of trade relations with the EU in the background of deep and comprehensive Free

Trade Area.Viena 2015,pp.13.

79

25,0% Seadgina (wina welTan SedarebiT is 1,6%-iTaa Semcirebuli) da misi

(wilis) saSualo wliuri matebis tempi 2008-2014 wlebSi 0,6%-s gautolda,

(mTlianad eqsportis saSualo wliuri zrdis tempia 111,3%) xolo importis

maCvenebeli imave periodSi (2014 wels 2013 welTan SedarebiT) 2%-iT

gaizarda da MmTliani brunvis 75,0% Seadgina.66, romlis (wilis) saSualo

wliuri klebis tempma 2008-2014 wlebSi 1% Seadgina. (mTlianad importis

saSualo wliuri zrdis tempi ki amave periodSi 105,2 %_ia).

2014 wels saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis TiTqmis yvela maCveneblis

mixedviT matebis tempebia dafiqsirebuli (ix.cxrili1), magram Tu dinamikaSi

gavaanalizebT eqsportisa da importis maCveneblebs, gamovlindeba matebis

tempebis Semcirebis tendencia. magaliTad, 2012 wels sagareo vaWrobis

brunvis matebis tempi 12,7%-s Seadgenda, rac wina wlis analogiur

maCvenebelze TiTqmis 20,3%-iT naklebia, 2011 wels 33% iyo, 2013 wels 4,9%,

xolo 2014 wels - 4,8% matebis tempi dafiqsirda. qveyanaSi importis

mimarTulebiTac SenarCunebulia zrdis tendencia. 2014 wels importis

matebis tempma wina welTan SedarebiT 7,1%, xolo 2012 welTan SedarebiT

6,8 % Seadgina. Tumca 2013 wels, 2009 wlis Semdeg, isev dafiqsirda 0,3%-iani

klebis tempi. eqsportis mixedviT ki 2008-2013 wlebSi gamovlenili mzardi

tendencia 2014 wels 1.7%-iani klebiT Seicvala. აman ki sabolood saldos

maCvenebeli - 12%-mde daiyvana.

cxrili @@#1

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis maCveneblebis cvlileba (%)

(cvlileba gaangariSebulia wina welTan SedarebiT)67

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eეqsporti 33,8 8,2 31,6 21.4 -24.2 48.0 30.5 8.5 22,4 -1,6

იmporti 34,9 47,7 41,8 20.9 -28.6 16.8 34.3 13.9 -o,3 7,1

Bბrunva 34,6 37,5 39,8 21.0 -27.7 23.1 33.3 12,7 4,9 4,8

66 www.geostat.ge67 Abesadze Nino- "The Main Trends of Integration of Georgia into the World Economic System." Procedia-Social and

Behavioral Sciences 156 ,2014.pp. 166-169.

80

სaldo 35,4 68,8 45,4 20.8 -30.0 6.3 36.0 12.2 -10 12

Tu gavaanalizebT reeqsport-reimportis monacemebs dinamikaSi,

SevamCnevT, rom qveyanaSi ZiriTadad reeqsporti fiqsirdeba. amis

sailustraciod sakmarisia aRiniSnos, rom reeqsporti qveyanaSi 428-jer

aRemateba reimports. amasTan misi zrdis tempi 2013 wlamde uswrebda ara

mxolod eqsportis zrdas, aramed, 2008 wlidan aRemateboda sagareo

vaWrobis danarCeni yvela zogadi maCveneblis zrdis temps. reeqsportis

sistematuri zrda 2013 wlamde ZiriTadad saqarTvelodan msubuqi

avtomobilebis reeqsportis xarjze modioda, rac gansakuTrebiT maRali

iyo bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi. amis mizezia saqarTvelos xelsayreli

geografiuli mdebareoba da SedarebiT liberaluri sabaJo-sagadasaxado

politika. Bbevri qveynisaTvis xelsayreli iyo saqarTvelodan

avtomobilebis gayvana. 2014 wlidan reeqsportis maCvenebelma daiwyo

Semcireba, rac avtomanqanebis reeqsportis Semcirebas ukavSirdeba. Ees

azerbaijanis mxridan dawesebuli evro 5–is tipis standartis manaqanebis

Seyvanam da yazaxeTsa da somxeTSi evraziuli kavSiris sabaJo sistemis

moTxovnebma ganapiroba. aRniSnul tendencias adasturebs QqvemoT mocemuli

diagrama.(ix.diagrama #1)

diagrama #1

reeqsport-reimportis dinamika

81

rac Seexeba evrokavSiris qveynebTan reeqsportis dinamikas, aq zrdis

tendencia SeiniSneba. gansakuTrebiT es exeba iseT qveynebs, rogoricaa:

bulgareTi, espaneTi, belgia, niderlandebi da germania, saidanac

reeqsportis ZiriTad produqcias warmoadgens: spilenZis madnebi da

koncentratebi, msubuqi avtomobilebi, dasakidi da Casadgmeli saketebi

araZvirfasi liTonebisagan, kakali axali an gamxmari, rezinis fexsacmeli,

tyavis ZiriTa da safeiqro masalis zedapiriT, rezinis pnevmaturi

salteebi da saburavebi, kosmetikuri saSualebebi an makiaJisa da kanis

movlis saSualebebi, eTilis spirti aradenaturirebuli, spirtiani

sasmelebi da a.S (ix. danarTi #1)

diagrama #2

reeqsportis dinamika evrokavSiris qveynebTan

rac Seexeba reimports, aq gansxvavebuli situaciaa. reimportis

SedarebiT maRali maCveneblebi mxolod germaniasTan fiqsirdeba, xolo

sxva qveynebTan imdenad umniSvneloa, rom grafikul gamosaxulebaze misi

sveti ar daitaneba. 2014 wlidan Seicvala situacia da gamoikveTa

reimportis mixedviT ZiriTadi 5 qveyana, romelTanac saqarTvelom

gaaqtiura Tavisi urTierToba (ix. Ddiagrama #3).

82

Ddiagrama #3

reimporti evrokavSiris qveynebTan

reimportis produqcias miekuTvneba: kakali sxva, axali an gamxmari,

wmindad da uxeSad dafquli fqvili da fxvnili gamxmari parkosani

bostneulisagan, naRebis karaqi da rZis sxva cximebi, rZis pastebi, rZe da

naRebi, Sesqelebuli an Saqris damatebiT cxoveluri warmoSobis kvebis

produqtebi, traqtorebis, msubuqi, satvirTo da specialuri daniSnulebis

avtomobilebis nawilebi da mowyobilobebi, medicinaSi an veterinariaSi

gamosayenebeli xelsawyoebi da mowyobilobebi da sxva.

sagareo savaWro nakadebis zrdis tempebis cvlilebis gamo, zogjer

Zneldeba dinamikuri suraTisa da Sesabamisad tendenciebis gamovlena.

amitom statistikaSi gaiangariSeba saSualowliuri zrdisa da matebis

tempebi. sagareo vaWrobis zogadi maCveneblebis saSualo wliuri zrdis

tempebi gansxvavebulia da 2008-2014 wlebSi eqsportisa da importisaTvis

rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, Sesabamisad 111,3% da 105,2%-s Seadgens. rac Seexeba

reeqsport-reimports, yvelaze maRali saSualo wliuri zrdis tempi

reeqsportisaTvis 2008-2014 wlebSi dafiqsirda da man 134 procenti Seadgina.

reimportisaTvis ki 137,3%.

kvlevis obieqtidan gamomdinare, mizanSewonilia ufro detalurad

ganvixiloT da gavaanalizoT sagareo vaWrobis monacეmebi evrokavSiris

qveynebTan. saqarTvelos mTavar problemad, rogorc saerTod sagareo

83

vaWrobisas, ise, evrokavSirTan urTierTobisas, uaryofiTi savaWro

balansia.

cxrili #2

evrokavSirTan sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri monacemebi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

wlebi eqsporti importi brunva Saldo

2005 165 160. 2 744 571. 9 909732,1 -579411,7

2006 157 901.9 1 118 926.4 1276828,3 -961024,5

2007 268 530.3 1 546 297.7 1814828 -1277767,4

2008 335 153.8 1 764 268.9 2099422,7 -1429115.1

2009 237 546.8 1 340 887.8 1578434,6 -1103341,0

2010 309 513.4 1 470 643.3 1780156,7 -1439692,0

2011 424 300.2 2 057 198.9 2481499,1 -1632898,7

2012 353 006.5 2 431 111.4 2784117,9 -2078104,9

2013 607 891.3 2 270 720.9 2878612,2 -1662829,6

2014 620 804.6 2 369 355.0 2990159,6 -1748550,4

rogorc cxrilidan Cans, Mmiuxedavad imisa, rom 2005 wlidan

sistematurad izrdeba evrokavSiris qveynebTan eqsportis maCveneblebi,

importis gansakuTrebulad maRali zrdis tempebis gamo kvlav maRalia

sagareo vaWrobis uaryofiTi saldos maCvenebeli. marTalia 2014 wels man

1748550,4 AaTasi aSS dolari Seadgina da 2012 welTan SedarebiT 16%-iT

Semcirda, magram wina welTan SedarebiT 5,2%-iT, xolo 2008 welTan

SedarebiT 1 procentiTaa gazrdili.

es tendencia kargad Cans qvemoT mocemul cxrilSi, romelic gviCvenebs

2005-2014 wlebis eqsport-importis cvlilebas (procentulad) wina welTan

SedarebiT.

84

cxrili #3

evrokavSirTan sagareo vaWrobis maჩveneblebis jaWvuri

zrdis tempebis dinamika (%)

wlebi eqsporti importi brunva saldo

2005 0,94 1.20 1,19 1,49

2006 0.95 1.50 1,40 1.65

2007 1.70 1.38 1.42 1,33

2008 1.25 1.14 1.15 1,35

2009 0.71 0.76 0.75 0.77

2010 1.30 1.10 1,13 1.09

2011 1.37 1.40 1.39 1,13

2012 0.83 1.18 1.12 1,27

2013 1.72 0.93 1.10 0.80

2014 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.05

evrokavSirTan sagareo vaWrobis ganviTarebis tendenciebis Sesabamisad

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis periodebi, saqarTvelos sagareo

aqtiurobis mixedviT pirobiTad SeiZleba sam etapad davyoT. I etapi, 2000-

2003 wlebSi evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo savaWro procesebis SedarebiT

stabilur ganviTarebas ukavSirdeba. Aam periodSi sagareo savaWro

operaciebis masStabebic mcire da Sesabamisad maTi zrdis tempebic

Tanabarzomieri iyo. (ix. Ddiagrama #4, 5).

diagrama #4

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis I etapi

85

diagrama #5

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis I etapi

meore etapi moicavs 2004-2007 wlebs, rodesac evrokavSirTan sagareo

vaWrobis swrafi zrdis tendenciebi gamovlinda. Eam periodSi

gansakuTrebiT TvalSi sacemi iyo evrokavSiris qveynebTan importis zrdis

swrafi tempebi eqsportTan SedarebiT. swored aRniSnulma ganapiroba

qveynis uaryofiTi savaWro saldos saSualo wliuri zrdis tempis 150

procentamde gazrda.

Ddiagrama #6

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis II etapi

D

86

diagrama #7

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis II etapi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebisa da zogadad ekonomikuri

aqtivobis TvalsazrisiT yvelaze gamorCeulia bolo, mesame etapi, radgan

evrokavSirTan asocirebis xelSekrulebis xelmowerisa da amis safuZvelze

Rrma da yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis SeTanxmebis etapobrivi

realizaciis Sedegad evrokavSirTan gaaqtiurda rogor saeqsporto, ise

saimporto urTierTobebi. ra Tqma unda, am periodis sagareo vaWrobis

maCveneblebze gavlena iqonia ruseT-saqarTvelos saomarma moqmedebebma, ris

gamoc 2009 wlisaTvis yvela sferoSi Cavardnili doneebi dafiqsirda,

magram 2009 wlidan iwyeba sistematuri zrdis tendenciebi, rac Sesabamisad

mzardi zrdisa da matebis tempebSi gamoisaxa.

diagrama #8

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis III etapi

87

Ddiagrama #9

evropasTan ekonomikuri integraciis III etapi

rogorc grafikidan Cans, 2008 wlis Semdeg eqsporti evrokavSirTan

Semcirda, rac msoflio ekonomikuri krizisisa da ruseT-saqarTvelos

Soris arsebuli saomari moqmedebebis Sedegia. magram 2012 wlidan

saqarTveloSi evrokavSirTan eqsporti ufro swrafi tempebiT izrdeboda,

vidre importi. gansakuTrebiT gaZlierda saeqsporto urTierTobebi 2013-

wels. Tumca, rogorc vxedavT, O2014 wels odnav Semcirebulia saerTod

eqsportis zrdis tempi. aRniSnulma ganapiroba is, rom amave periodSi

uaryofiTi savaWro saldos saSualo wliuri zrdis tempma 102,9% procenti

Seadgina.

savaWro urTierTobebis Sesaswavlad statistikaSi gaiangariSeba

eqsportiT importis dafarvis koeficienti, rogorc eqsportis Tanafardoba

importTan, gamosaxuli procentebSi. Aam maCvenebelma yvelaze maRal dones,

45.7%-s, 2000 wels miaRwia. Semdeg eqsportiT importis dafarvis

koeficientis dinamika cvalebadi tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda. kerZod, 2007-

2010 wlebSi is 23,6%-dan 31,9 %-mde gaizarda, 2010-2011 wlebSi 31,9%-dan 31%-

mde, xolo 2012 wels 29,5%-mde Semcirda. Semdeg 2013 wels sakvlev periodSi

Tavis maqsimums, 36,2%-s miaRwia da bolo monacemebiT 33,3% Seadgina, rac

2008 welTan SedarebiT (am wels misi sidide 23,7% iyo) 9,6 procentuli

punqtiTaa gazrdili. rac Seexeba evrokavSiris qveynebTan eqsportiT

importis dafarvis koeficientis dinamikas, aqac sagareo vaWrobaSi

arsebuli suraTis analogiuri tendencia gamovlinda. Tu is 2007 wels

17,3% iyo, 2008 wels miaRwia 19%-s, xolo 2010wels 21%-mde gaizarda. 2012

wels saerTod eqsportiT importis dafarvis koeficientis Semcirebis

88

paralelurad is sagrZnoblad Semcirda evrokavSiris mimarT da 14,5%

Seadgina, rac evrokavSirTan Semcirebuli eqsportiT aixsneba. Semdeg

wlebSi is gaizarda da 2014 wlis monacemebiT 26,2%-s gautolda.

cnobilia, rom ekonomikuri gaxsnilobis maCveneblebs miekuTvneba

eqsportisa da importis procentuli wili mSp-Si anu eqsportisa da

importis kvotebi. Fformalizebulad Tanafardobani SeiZleba Caiweros

Semdegnairad:

eqsportis kvota =mSp

moculobaeqsportisX 100%;

importis kvota =mSp

moculobaimportis X 100%,

ekonomikis eqspertebi miiCneven, rom ekonomikis gaxsnilobis xarisxi

CaiTvalos misaRebad, Tu eqsportis kvota aRemateba 10%-s. Tumca rogorc

ekonomikur litaraturaSia miTiTebuli mocemuli maCvenebeli zogierT

qveynebSi SeiZleba meryeobdes 125-180%-mde.68

sagareo vaWrobis kvota gamoiTvleba sagareo vaWrobis brunvis

SefardebiT mSp-Tan da 100-ze gamravlebiT. sagareo vaWrobis saldos kvota

gamoiTvleba eqsportisa da importis sxvaobis SefardebiT eqsportisa da

importis jamTan. saldos maCvenebeli Teoriulad meryeobs -100 dan +100-

mde.69 Tu misi mniSvneloba utoldebaU-100-s, es niSnavs, rom eqsports

adgili ara aqvs da qveyana mTlianad damokidebulia importze. im

SemTxvevaSi Tu maCvenebeli miaRwevs +100-s, maSin qveyana eweva mxolod

eqsports.

saqstatis monacemebis safuZvelze gaviangariSeT importis, eqsportis,

sagareo vaWrobisa da sagareo vaWrobis saldos kvotis maCveneblebi

dinamikaSi da Sedegebi warmovadgineT Semdegi cxrilebis saxiT:

cxrili #4

kvotebis dinamika

Kkvota 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eeqsportis 11.7 10,5 14.4 15,2 15.0 18,0 17,3

68 Экономическая статистика, под.ред. Ю.Н. Иванова. М. 2006,стр.542.69 Mm. xmalaZe-statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Nnawili II. Tb., 2015, Ggv.393

89

importis 49,2 41,8 45.2 48,8 50.8 49,7 52.0

sagareo vaWrobis 60,9 52,3 59.6 64 65,8 67,7 69,3

sagareo vaWrobis saldos -61,6 -58,7 -51,6 -52,7 -54,4 -46,8 -50

EevrokavSiris qveynebisaTvis daTvlili maCveneblebi ki Semdegia:

cxrili #5

Kkvota 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

eqsportis 2,1 1,5 2,7 2.9 2,2 3,7 3,8

importis 10,8 8,5 12,7 14,.3 15,3 14,1 14,3

sagareo vaWrobis 12,8 10.0 12,4 17,2 17,5 17,8 18,1

sagareo vaWrobis saldos -68 -70 -80,6 -66,2 -74,8 -58,4 -58,1

rogorc cxrilidan Cans, 2008-2014 wlebis dinamikaSi eqsportis kvotis

sidide misaReb minimalur dones aWarbebs, zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba da

bolo monacemebiT 17,3-s Seadgens. sakvlev periodSi yvelaze maRal

niSnuls man 2013 wels miaRwia, romelic 0,7 procentuli punqtiT Semcirda

momdevno wlisaTvis. Tumca saerTod zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba, rac

sagareo bazarze erovnuli saqonlis konkurentunarianobis mzard doneze

miuTiTebs. rac Seexeba importis kvotas, aqac bolo wlebis mixedviT

izrdeba misi maCvenebeli, rac Sida bazris jer kidev importirebuli

saqonliT gajerebas niSnavs. Aamaze naTlad metyvelebs sagareo vaWrobis

saldos kvotis maCvenebelic, (is yvela wlis mixedviT uaryofiTia),

romelmac rogorc saerTod, ise evrokavSirTan mimarTebiT aCvena, rom

saqarTvelos savaWro urTierTobebis didi nawili importTanaa

dakavSirebuli.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikuri Seswavlisas aucilebelia sagareo

vaWrobis donis daxasiaTeba. amisaTvis statistikaSi angariSoben eqsportisa

da importis moculobas saSualod erT mosaxleze. Aam maCveneblis

misaRebad eqsportisa da importis moculoba iyofa mosaxleobis saSualo

ricxvze, miRebul koeficientebs Soris sxvaobiT miiReba saldos

koeficienti. saldos koeficienti pirdapir SeiZleba miviRoT sagareo

90

vaWrobis saldos SefardebiTac mosaxleobis saSualo ricxvTan. sagareo

vaWrobis done SeiZleba daxasiaTebul iqnas import-eqsportis

TanafardobiTa da sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobis maCveneblebiTac. import-

eqsportis Tanafardobis maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba importis gayofiT

eqsportze, romelic gviCvenebs ramdenjer aRemateba importis moculoba

eqsports. sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobis maCvenebeli ki miiReba saldos

SefardebiT sagareo vaWrobis brunvasTan. es koeficienti gviCvenebs

saldos ramdeni procenti modis eqsport-importis brunvaze.70

Cvens mier yvela zemoT CamoTvlili maCvenebeli gaangariSebul iqna

2014 wlisa da 2008 wlis monacemebis mixedviT rogorc mTlianad sagareo

vaWrobis mixedviT, ise evrokavSiris qveynebTan brunvis mixedviT. Sedegebi

warmovadgineT cxrilis saxiT: (detaluri gaangariSeba ixileT danarTSi

#2)

cxrili #6

2008

weli

2014

weli

2014 weli

koreqtirebuli

Mmosaxleobis

aRweris winaswari

Sedegebis mixedviT

eqsportis done 0,34 0.64 0.77

maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan 0,076 0.138 0,17

importis done 1.44 1,91 2,30

maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan 0.40 0.52 0.63

saldos done 1.10 1.27 1,54

maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan 0.39 0.389 0,47

brunvis done 1.78 2.55 3,07

maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan 0.48 0.67 0,80

importis-eqsportis Tanafardobis

maCvenebeli

4.21 3.00 3.00

maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan 5.3 3,82 3.82

70 m. xmalaZeE- statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Nnawili meore Tb.,2015, gv.420-422.

91

sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobis

maCveneblebi71

61.6% 50% 50%

maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan 82.4% 58.5% 58.5%

miRebuli maCveneblebidan irkveva, rom sagareo vaWrobis zrda

importis winmswrebi zrdis tempiTaa ganpirobebuli. Tu 2014 wlisaTvis

saerTod importi 3-jer aRemateba eqsports, (es 71 %-iT naklebia 2008 wlis

maCvenebelze, rac eqsportis zrdis xarjze SeiniSneba da TavisTavad

dadebiTi faqtia), evrokavSiris qveynebTan ufro metad, TiTqmis 4-jer meti

maCvenebeli dafiqsirda, Tumca 2008 welTan SedarebiT 2014 wels

evrokavSirTan gaaqtiurebulma saeqsporto urTierTobebma misi sidide 39%-

iT Seamcira. 2014 wels 2008 welTan SedarebiT 11,6%-iTaa Semcirebuli

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis uaryofiTi saldos xvedriTi wilic

brunvaSi, romelic 50%-s, xolo evrokavSiris qveynebTan 58,5%-s gautolda.

(rac 23,9 procentuli punqtiTaa Semcirebuli). eqsportis zrdis gamo 43

procentuli punqtiT gaumjobesda eqsportis donis maCvenebeli, romelic

imave periodSi 0,34 -dan 0,77-de, m.S. evrokavSirTan 0.076 -dan 0,17-gaizarda.

importis done ki 1,44-dan 2,30-mde da evrokavSirTan 0,40-dan 0,63 -mde

gaizarda.

detalurad gavaanalizoT qveynis sagareo savaWro balansSi

Camoyalibebuli tendenciebi. monacemebidan Cans, rom saqarTvelo, sul

ufro aqtiurad erTveba inegraciul procesebSi, ufro metad mimzidveli

xdeba msoflios savaWro partiorebisTvis. Aaseve, izrdeba ucxour

bazrebze qarTuli produqciis SeRwevis maCveneblebi.

2014 wels saqarTvelom savaWro operaciebi ganaxorciela msoflios 145

qveyanasTan, romelTagan 43-Tan dafiqsirda dadebiTi savaWro saldo, 102

qveyanasTan –uaryofoTi. am mxriv yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli Cveni qveynis

sagareo vaWrobis istoriaSi rogorc saeqsporto, ise saimporto nakadebis

mxriv dafiqsirda 2012 wels. (ix.danarTi 3) 2014 wels saeqsporto

71 A sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobis maCveneblebis GgamoTvlisaTvis mniSvneloba ar aqvs

saldo dadebiTia Tu uaryofiTi. Aam SemTxvevaSi saldo uaryofiTia, amitom uaryofiT

movlenasTan gvaqvs saqme.

92

operaciebi ganxorcielda 122 qveyanasTan, rac 3 erTeuliT CamorCeba 2012

wlis da 15 erTeuliT metia 2008 wlis maCvenebelze.

2014 wels saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvam evrokavSiris

qveynebTan 2990 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, rac wina wlis Sesabamis

maCvenebelze 4 procentiT metia. aqedan eqsportma 621 mln. aSS dolari (2

procentiT meti), xolo importma 2369 mln. aSS dolari (4 procentiT meti)

Seadgina. saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvaSi am qveynebis wili 26

procentia, maT Soris eqsportSi 22 procenti da importSi 28 procenti (2013

wels Sesabamisad 26, 21 da 28 procenti). evrokavSiris qveynebze modioda

savaWro deficitis 30 procenti (2013 wels 32 procenti). qvemoT mocemulia

diagramebebi, romelic gviCvenebs qveynebis jgufebis wils saqarTvelos

mTlian eqsportsa da importSi.72

Ddiagrama # 10 Ddiagrama #11

qveynebis jgufebis wili eqsportSi qveynebis jgufebis wili importSi

2014 wels saqarTvelom savaWro operaciebi ganaxorciela evrokavSiris

28 qveyanasTan, saeqsporto urTierTobebi 27 (gamonaklisia luqsemburgi),

xolo saimporto operaciebi evrokavSiris yvela qveyanasTan aRiniSneboda,

romelTanac saangariSo wels uaryofiTma savaWro saldom 1 748 550,3 aTasi

aSS dolari Seadgina. uaryofiTi saldos yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli

dafiqsirda 6 qveyanasTan: Ggermania, -396 711,7 aTasi aSS dolari, rumineTi,

72 GgaangariSebani warmoebulia saqstatis monacemebis safuZvelze.

93

307 106,7 aTasi, italia -135 425,9 aTasi, niderlandebi-117 311, aTasi,

saberZneTi - 103 778,5 aTasi, safrangeTi.-103615,0 aTasi aSS dolari.

importis zrdis maRali tempebis paralelurad evrokavSiris qveynebTan

SeiniSneba eqsportis zrdac. brunvis yvelaze maRali maCvenebliT

gamoirCeva bulgareTi (26,4% wiliT), romlis moculoba 164 090,2, aTasi aSS

dolaria, italia (13,9%) 86 193,1 aTasi aSS dolari, espaneTi (11,3%) 70314,1

aTasi aSS dolari, germania (11,1%) 69141,6 aTasi aSS dolari, litva (5,1%), 31

764,0 aTasi aSS dolari. rac Seexeba imports, aq upirobo lideria germania

(19,7%),465 853,3, aTasi aSS dolariT, Semdeg modis rumineTi (13,1%) 311 400,5

aTasi dilari, italia (9,4%) 221 619,0 aTasi dolari, bulgareTi (8,9%) 209

773,6 aTasi aSS dolari, niderlandebi (6,3%) 148 480,6 aTasi dolari da a. S.

2000 wlidan saqarTvelos savaWro urTierToba evrokavSirSi Semavali

qveynebis umravlesobasTan da xSir SemTxvevaSi absolutur

umravlesobasTan hqonda. dReisaTvis saqarTvelos evrokavSirSi Semavali 28

qveynidan saeqsporto urTierTobebi ar gaaCnda maltasTan, (2000, 2003,

2004,2005, 2008, 2011, 2012 wlebSi) xorvatisTan, (2000, 2002.2003, 2004 wlebSi),

slovakeTTan (2002 wels) fineTTan (2002, 2004,2005 wlebSi) luqsemburgTan

(2000, 2002, 2003, 2007 wleSbi) da sloveniasTan (2002 wels).

saqarTvelo-evrokavSiris sagareo vaWrobis analizma gamoavlina zrdis

mzardi tendencia. kerZod, 1995-2010 wlebSi sagareo vaWrobis brunva

saSualod gaizarda 14,8%-iT. amasTan, importi – 14,6%-iT, xolo eqsporti –

15,5%-iT. 1995-2002 wlebSi sagareo vaWrobis brunva saSualod 14,8%-iT

gaizarda, importis saSualo wliuri matebis tempmi - 8.9% iyo, xolo

evrokavSir-saqarTvelos eqsportis ki – 15,9%. 2003-2008 wlebSi Sesabamisma

maCveneblebma 28,1%, 34,4% da 34,8% Seadgina. maSin rodesac aRniSnul

periodSi saqarTvelos eqsporti wliurad saSualod 27,1%-iT, xolo

importi 40,5%-iT izardeboda.Mmarto 2008 wels saqarTvelos sagareo

savaWro brunvam evrokavSiris qveynebTan 2 mlrd. aSS dolars gadaaWarba,

maT Soris eqsporti - 335,2 mln. aSS dolars Seadgenda, xolo importi -

1756 mln aSS dolars anu importis moculoba eqsportis moculobas 5-jer

aRemateboda. evrokavSiris qveynebis wilad savaWro brunvis 26,5% modioda,

maT Soris eqsportis - 22,4% da importis - 27,5%. saqarTvelos sagareo

savaWro brunva evrokavSiris qveynebTan 2008-2014 wlebSi 43%-iT gaizarda,

94

2990159,6 aTasi aSS dolars miaRwia da saqarTvelos savaWro brunvis 22%

Seadgina. amasTan, eqsporti gaizarda 85,3%-iT, 620 804,6 aTasi aSS dolars

miaRwia da daikava mTliani eqsportis 22,0%, xolo importi gaizarda 35,2%-

iT, 2 369 355,0 aTasi aSS dolari Seadgina da daikava mTliani importis

28%.

evrokavSiris ZiriTadi saeqsporto qveynebis topaTeulis wili mTel

eqsportSi 19,6%-s, evrokavSirTan eqsportSi 90%-s da evrokavSiris

qveynebTan savaWro brunvis 18,7%-s Seadgens. (rac mTliani savaWro brunvis

4,9%-ia) (ix,danarTi 4)D

Ddiagrama#12

evrokavSiris topaTeuli saeqsporto qveyana

(2014 wlis mixedviT)

evrokavSiris qveynebTan ZiriTad saeqsporto produqcias warmoadgens

spilenZis madnebi da koncentratebi 177 149,7 aTasi aSS dolari, kakali

axali an gamxmari, 153 816,6 aTasi aSS dolari, yurZnis naturaluri

Rvinoebi 153 539,7 aTasi aSS dolari, mineraluri da mtknari wylebi 115

254,9 aTasi aSS dolari, feroSenadnobebi 81 365,2 aTasi aSS dolari da a. S.

(ix. diagrama #13)

95

Ddiagrama #13

evrokavSiris qveynebTan ZiriTadi saeqsporto produqciis aTeuli

2014 wels saimporto produqciaSi sWarbobda navTobi da

navTobproduqtebi - 572 137,9 aTasi aSS dolari, samkurnalo saSualebebi-

219 662,0 aTasi aSS dolari, msubuqi avtomobilebi- 158 051,3 aTasi aSS

dilari, xorbali da meslini - 135 108,3 aTasi aSS dolari, sigarebi,

sigarilebi da sigaretebi Tambaqos an misi Semcvlelebisagan - 109 743,7 aSS

dolari da sxv. (ix. Ddiagrama #14)

Ddiagrama #14

umsxvilesi saimporto produqciis aTeuli

96

ZiriTadi saimporto qveynebis AaTeuls evrokavSiris qveynebidan

liderobs Ggermania, romlis wili evrokavSirTan mTeli importis 19,7%-s

Seadgens, Semdeg modian rumineTi da italia, Sesabamisad 13,1% da 9,4%-iani

wiliT. saerTod am topaTeuli qveynebis wili mTlian importSi 20,4%-ia,

maTi wili evrokavSirTan importSi 74%-s Seadgens, rac mTliაni sagareo

vaWrobis brunvis 15,3%-s, xolo evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo vaWrobis

brunvis 58,7%-s Seadgens. (ix. danarTi #5)D

diagrama#15

saimporto qveynebis AaTeuli

amrigad, evrokavSiri saqarTvelis erT-erT saimedo partniorad

gvevlineba, romelTanac ormxrivi vaWroba sakmaod dinamiurad viTardeba da

kidev ufro gaZlierdeba evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris Rrma da

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis formirebis Sedegad. mas

udidesi mniSvneloba gaaCnia, vinaidan is xels Seuwyobs qarTuli

eqsportis zrdas, qarTuli produqciis xarisxis gaumjobesebas,

evrokavSiris bazarTan Tavsebadi savaWro sistemis formirebas, rasac

TavisTavad moyveba sainvesticio garemos mimzidvelobis gazrda.Ees ki

pirdapir ucxouri investiciebis Semodinebas Seuwyobs xels, romlis

Sedegadac Seiqmneba axali samuSao adgilebi. yovelive zemoTaRniSnuli

saqarTvelos ekonomikis zrdis stimulirebasa da zogadad, saqarTvelos

ekonomikur ganviTarebas Seuwyobs xels.

97

Eerovnuli ekonomikebis ganviTarebis warmateba pirdapir aris

damokidebuli integraciul procesebSi qveynebis monawileobis xarisxze.73P

profesori merab xmalaZe gvTavazobs saqarTvelos msoflio

ekonomikur sivrceSi integraciis xarisxis gazomvis meTodikas da

ayalibebs miseul xedvas. Kkerod, avlens im ZiriTad faqtorebs, romlebic

misi azriT gavlenas axdenen qveynis msoflio ekonomikaSi integraciul

procesze. am faqtorebs miekuTvneba: urTierTobebi danarCen msofliosTan

pirveladi Semosavlebis, Mmimdinare transferebis, sagareo vaWrobis,

investiciebis, sagareo valis mixedviT. prof. m. xmalaZe TiToeuli

faqtorisaTvis dinamikaSi angariSobs misi wils mTlian Sida produqtSi.

bolo striqonisa da svetis gadakveTaze miRebul sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis agregirebul jamur maCvenebels is uwodebs msoflio

ekonomikaSi integrirebis koeficients, romelic axasiaTebs saqarTvelos

ekonomikis msoflio ekonomikaSi integrirebis dones.74 Mmis misaRebad

saWiroa gaangariSebul iqnes saSualo sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis

maCveneblebis jamidan. garda amisa prof. m.xmalaZe angariSobs calkeuli

striqonis mixedviT maCveneblebis saSualo ariTmetikuls da Semdeg ki

miRebuli svetebidan iTvlis koeficientebis saSualos.

cxadia, Eam koeficientis mniSvneloba procentebSi SeiZleba

meryeobdes 0 –sa da 100-s Soris. koeficientis 0-Tan miaxloebisas qveyanas

aranairi sagareo urTierTobebi ar aqvs, xolo 100-Tan miaxloebisas qveyana

mxolod sagareo urTierTobebis xarjze viTardeba. radgan 2003-2008wlis

monacemebis mixedviT saqarTvelos integrirebis koeficienti 21,1%-ia, es

imas niSnavs, rom am periodSi saqarTvelom moaxdina Tavisi sagareo

ekonomikuri urTierTobebis potencialis mxolod 21,3 %-is realizacia.

prof. Mm. xmalaZe iZleva qveynebis integrirebis donis Sefasebas

samsafexuriani Skalis mixedviT Tanabarintervaliani dajgufebis

safuZvelze: I. 0-33%-dabali; II. 33,3-66,6%-saSualo; III. 66,6%-100% -maRali.

aseTi klasifikaciis SemTxvevaSi 2003-2008 wlebSi saqarTvelo integrirebis

dabali donis kategoriis qveynebSi xvdeba.

73 c. ZoweniZe saqarTvelos evropasTan integraciis problemebi da perspeqtivebi. quTaisi

2014, gv.35.

74 Mm. xmalaZe statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Tb., 2011, Ggv. 480-481.B

98

vnaxoT rogor situaciaa dRes saqarTveloSi. yvela zemoT CamoTvlili

maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT ganvsazRvreT koeficientebi, amasTan, Cvens mier

modificirebul iqna prof. merab xmalaZis mier SemoTavazebuli qveynis

integraciis xarisxis gazomvis zemoT CamoTvlil maCvenebelTa sistema mSp-

Si saerTaSoriso turizmis wilis maCveneblis damatebiT.

zemoT ganxiluli meTodikis mixedviT gaviangariSeT calkeuli

maCveneblebis saSualo ariTmetikuli da Semdeg miRebuli mniSvnelobebidan

ganvsazRvreT saSualoebi. Sedegebi warmovadgineT cxrilis saxiT:

cxrili #7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142008-

2014

urTierTobebi danarCen

msofliosTan:

Ppirveladi Semosavlebis

mixedviT9,3 8,9 10,3 13,4 14,5 13,3 12,5 11,7

mimdinare transferebis

mixedviT9,6 10,3 10,9 10,9 10,5 10,5 10,8 10,5

sagareo vaWrobis

mixedviT60,9 52,3 59,6 64,1 65,8 67,7 69,3 62,9

investiciebis mixedviT 12,2 6,1 7,0 7,7 5,8 5,8 7,7 7,5sagareo valis mixedviT 19,4 25,2 28,0 24,7 25,3 26,4 26,5 25,1saerTaSoriso turi-

zmidan miRebuli

Semosavlebis mixedviT

0.6 0,9 3,2 3,9 5,3 6,4 6.0 3,8

saSualod sagareo eko-

nomikuri urTierTobebis

maCveneblebis jamis

saSualo (procentebSi)

18,7 17,3 19,8 20,8 21,2 21,7 22,1 20,2/20,2

miviReT, rom ganxilul periodSi saqarTvelos msoflio ekonomikaSi

integrirebis koeficientma 20,2% Seadgina.

99

faqtia, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis didi nawili ucxoeTidan

miRebuli da xSir SemTxvevaSi dsT-sa da evrokavSiris qveynebidan

gadmogzavnili fuladi gzavnilebis xarjze cxovrobs. cxadia, misi sidide

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri integraciis xarisxze moaxdens garkveul

gavlenas. SinameurneobaTa deklarirebuli monacemebis mixedviT erT

Sinameurneobaze ucxoeTidan miRebuli gzavnilebis saSualo sididem 36

lari Seadgina, (erT sulze misi sidide 10 laria), romelic 2010 wlis

maCvenebels 42,9%-iT, xolo 2008 lis dones 80%-iT aRemateba. marto 2014

wels fuladi gzavnilebis moculobam 1 440 754, 3 aTasi aSS dilari, maT

Soris evrokavSiridan 436 062,7 aTasi anu misi 30,3%, xolo dsT-dan 770

781.8 ATasi aSS dilari da mTeli gzavnilebis 53,5% Seadgina. marTalia

gzavnilebis sidide wina welTan SedarebiT 2,5%-iT Semcirebulia, magram

saerTod mas ukanasknel periodSi zrdis absoluturi tendencia

axasiaTebs. evrokavSiris qveynebidan yvelaze meti, rogorc mosalodneli

iyo Semovida saberZneTidan, italiidan, G espaneTidan, germanidan da

gaerTianebuli samefodan, xolo dsT-s sias saTaveSi udgas ruseTi,

Semdeg modian azerbaijani da yazaxeTi.

saerTod unda iTqvas, rom saqarTvelos msoflio ekonomikaSi

integrirebis xarisxi sakmaod dabalia da is 2003-2008 welTan SedarebiT

gauaresebulia. kerZod, Cveni gaangariSebiT 1,1 procentuli punqtiT aris

Semcirebuli. rogorc irkveva, Eintegraciis maCveneblis Semcireba

ZiriTadad mSp-Si investiciebis mixedviT gamoTvlili wilis maCveneblis

Semcirebis xarjze moxda. saqarTveloSi Seqmnili ekonomikuri suraTis

fonze SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom Ees koeficienti realurad asaxavs

saqarTvelos msoflio ekonomikaSi integraciis xarisxs.

statistikis TeoriaSi angariSoben cnobil gaswrebis koeficients,

romelic miiReba ori movlenis zrdis tempebis SefardebiT. Ggaswrebis

koeficienti axasiaTebs, Tu ramdenad izrdeba erTi movlena meoresTan

SedarebiT. Aაmitom Tu erTmaneTs SevufardebT eqsportis zrdisa da mSp-s

realuri zrdis tempebs, miviRebT eqsportis gaswrebis koeficients.75

75 Мишел Пебро Международные экономические, валютные и финансовые отношения, пер. С французского.

М.,1994, стр.34.

100

GDP

e

KK xpk

eqsportisa da mSp-s realuri zrdis maCveneblebis safuZvelze

gaviangariSeT gaswrebis koeficienti, rogorc mTlianad eqsportis, ise

evrokavSirTan eqsportis mixedviT.

eqsportis, mSp-s reluri zrdis maCveneblebi da gaswrebis

koeficientis mniSvnelobebi warmovadgineT cxrilis saxiT:

cxrili #8

eqsporti

evrokavSirTaneqsporti

mSp-s realuri

zrda, procentuli

cvlileba

GKgaswrebis

koeficienti

EKevrokavSiris

qveynebisaTvis

2005 0,94 1,34 1.09 1,22 0,86

2006 0.95 1.08 1,09 0,99 0,87

2007 1.70 1,3 1,13 1.50 1,50

2008 1,25 1,2 1, 03 1,17 1,22

2009 0,71 0,76 0,96 0,79 0,74

2010 1.30 1.5 1.06 1,4 1,22

2011 1,37 1.3 1,07 1.2 1.27

2012 0.83 1,08 1,06 1.02 0.78

2013 1.72 1.2 1,03 1.16 1.67

2014 1,02 0,98 1,05 0,94 0,97

Aamrigad, rogorc monacemebidan Cans marTalia izrdeba evrokavSiris

qveynebTan eqsportis maCveneblebi, magram mSp-Tan winswrebis mimarTebiT

araerTgvarovani suraTi Camoyalibda. Tu 2013 wels mTliani eqsportis

zrdis tempi 1,67 jer aWarbebda mSp-is zrdis temps, 2014 wels misi sidide

Semcirda da koeficienti 0,94-s gautolda, (evrokavSiris qveynebTan 0,97

dafiqsirda). arastabiluri maCveneblebi SeiniSneboda A2008-2012 wlebSic.

Ees ki niSnavs integraciis aramdgradi zrdis tendenciis gamovlinebas.

101

3.2 saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis geografiuli

mimarTulebebi

Sesabamisi informaciuli bazis safuZvelze sagareo vaWrobis

geografiuli struqturis Seswavlam Semdegi suraTi gamoavlina:

eqsportis mimarTulebiT saqarTvelos tvirTebis saboloo

daniSnulebis obieqti pirvel rigSi aris azia, romlis mimarTulebiTac

eqsportis moculobam 2014 wels 1 455,577,7 aTasi aSS dolari Seadgina, rac

mTlian eqsportis 50,9 %-s Seadgens. es maCvenebeli 9 %-iT aRemateba 2012

wlis da 112%-iT 2008 wlis dones. Semdgom modis evropa 2014 wels 1 455

577,7 aTasi aSS dolariT, mTlian eqsportSi 38,2 procentiani wiliT, rac

2012 welTan SedarebiT 75 %-iT, xolo 2008 welTan SedarebiT 114%-iTaa

gazrdili. Mmesame adgils ikavebs amerika 285 974,2 aTasi aSS dolariT da

mTlian eqsportSi 10 procentiani wiliT. es maCvenebeli amerikasTan 2012

wlis donesTan 25%-iT, xolo 2008 welTan SedarebiT 4%-iTaaM Semcirebuli,

rac evropasTan gaaqtiurebuli savaWro urTierTobebiT aixsneba. aRniSnuli

tendencia TvalnaTliv Cans qvemoT moyvanil diagramaze.

Ddiagrama #16

eqsportis geografiuli mimarTulebebi

rac Seexeba saimporto nakadebs, 2008-2014 wlebSi, importi ZiriTadad

aziidan xorcieldeboda da mTliani importis saSualod 47.1 procents

Seadgenda, 4,480,291.8 aTasi aSS dolariT, Tumca isic unda aRiniSnos, rom

2000-2008 wlebSi aziidan importi yvelaze maRali xvedriTi wiliT

102

gamoirCeoda danarCen kontinentebs Soris da mTliani importis saSualod

52.1 procents Seadgenda. 2008-2014 wlebSi ki evropidan importis wilma

saSualod mTliani importis 41,9 procenti Seadgina. aziidan importi 2012

welTan SedarebiT 14%-iT, xolo 2008 welTan SedarebiT 61%-iT gaizarda.

evropidan eqsportis zrdis tempebi droiSi ufro cvalebadi aRmoCnda,

radganac 2014 wels 2012 welTan SedarebiT 1%-iani klebis tempi, xolo 2008

welTan SedarebiT, 22%-iani mateba dafiqsirda. SedarebiT stabiluri

tendenciiT xasiaTdeba amerikis kontinentidan importis moculoba. 2014

wels wina welTan SedarebiT saimporto nakadebi am mimarTulebiT 8,6

procentiT gaizarda, miaRwia 450 486,9 aTas aSS dolars da mTliani

importis 5.2 procenti Seadgina. (ix. diagrama #17)

diagrama #17

Oimportis geografiuli mimarTulebebi

maSasadame, 2014 wels saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobaSi ZiriTadad aziaa

warmodgenili 5935869,5aTasi aSS dolariT, 51,8 procentiT, Semdeg modis

evropa 41 procentiT da danarCeni kontinentebi jamSi ikaveben mxolod 7,2

procents.

radgan sadisertacio naSromis obieqts evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri

integraciuli procesebi warmoadgens, saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis

geografiis ganxilvis dros SedarebisaTvis aviReT evrokavSiris qveynebi

da dsT-is wevri qveynebi.

103

rogorc statistikuri monacemebidan irkveva, saqarTvelos sagareo

ekonomikur urTierTobebSi mniSvnelovan rols jer kidev dsT-s wevri

qveynebi asruleben. gansakuTrebiT maRalia maTi wili saeqsporto

nakadebSi, romelic 2008-2014 wlebSi 36,2–51,2 procentis diapazonSi

meryeobs, (2003 wels es maCvenebeli 48,7% iyo) maSin, rodesac, evrokavSiris

wevri qveynebis wils 25.0 procentisaTvis ar gadauWarbebia.

dsT-is qveynebTan sagareo savaWro brunvam 2014 wels 3593 mln. aSS

dolari Seadgina (2013 welTan SedarebiT 5 procentiT naklebi). aqedan

eqsporti 1465 mln. aSS dolari (10 procentiT naklebi), xolo importi 2127

mln. aSS dolari (2 procentiT naklebi) dafiqsirda. saqarTvelos sagareo

savaWro brunvaSi dsT-is qveynebis wili 31 procenti iyo, maT Soris

eqsportSi 51 procenti da importSi 25 procenti (2013 wels Sesabamisad 35,

56 da 27 procenti). 2014 wels dsT-is qveynebze modioda savaWro deficitis

12 procenti (2013 wels aseve 11 procenti).

dsT-is qveynebSi eqsportis maRali maCveneblis paralelurad gaizarda

evrokavSiris qveynebSi misi sididec. 2014 wels eqsportma 620 804,6aTasi

dolari Seadgina. marTalia es dsT-s maCvenebelze TiTqmis 136%-iT

dabalia, magram, aqve isic unda aRiniSnos, rom es yvelaze maRali

maCvenebelia bolo 12 wliani periodis ganmavlobaSi.

rac Seexeba saimporto nakadebs qveynebis jgufebis WrilSi,

eqsportisgan gansxvavebuli mdgomareobaa. mxolod 2014 wels evrokavSirTan

mTlianma importma 2,369 355,0 aTasi aSS dolari Sadgina, es mTliani

imporis 28 procentia da 11%-iT procentiT metia dsT-s maCvenebelze (2014

wels dsT-s impirti 2 127 325,8 aTasi aSS dolaria), romlis wili mTlian

importSi 25%-ia.

Mmniშvnelovania iseTi jgufis ganxilva. rogoric aris suamis qveynebi,

romelSic Sedian: saqarTvelo, ukraina, azerbaijani da moldova. aRniSnul

jgufSi saqarTvelodan eqsportis sakmaod maRali wili fiqsirdeba, kerZod

2014 wels es maCvenebeli 24,1 procents Seadgens. rogorc Cans, 3 qveyanaSi

koncertrirebulia saqarTvelos eqsportis TiTqmis meoTxedi nawili da

samive maTgani yofili kavSiris wevri qveyanaa. es ki imas niSnavs, rom Cveni

qveynis eqsporti jer kidev orientirebulia dsT-s qveynebze, magram

evrokavSirTan asocirebis xelSekrulebis gaformebis Sedegad, Rrma da

104

yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis formirebis fonze evropis Sida bazarze

SeRweva ukve axlo momavlis perspeqtivaa. rac Seexeba saimporto nakadebs,

misi wili suamis qveynebidan jamSi 20 procentamde aRwevs.

rogorc kontinentebis da qveyanaTa jgufebis analizidan Cans,

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTad obieqts teritoriulad mezobeli

qveynebi warmoadgenen. misi umsxvilesi savaWro partniorebi 2008 wlidan

dRemde arian TurqeTi, (1966 mln. aSS dolari), azerbaijani (1182 mln. aSS

dolari) da ruseTi (853 mln. aSS dolari), romelmac 2014 wels Caanacvla

ukraina. aRsaniSnavia, rom 2000-2001 wlebSi saqarTvelos umsxvilesi

savaWro partniorebis aTeuli, savaWro brunvis mixedviT, TurqeTiT

iwyeboda, 2002-2005 ki wlebSi -. ruseTiT. 2014 wels maRali maCvenebli aqvs

CineTsac. 2014 wels aTi umsxvilesi savaWro partnioris wilma saqarTvelos

mTlian sagareo savaWro brunvaSi 68 procenti Seadgina.

cal-calke ganvixiloT umsxvilesi saeqsporto da saimporto aTeulebi

qveynebis WrilSi. 2014 wels saqarTvelos umsxvilesi saeqporto aTeulis

wili mTlian eqsportSi 75,4 procents Seadgens. analogiuri maCvenebeli

2010 wels 74,1 procenti iyo. aTeulSi gvxvdeba dsT-is 5 qveyana romelTa

wili mTlian eqsportSi Seadgens 46,7 procents da evrokavSiris sami

qveyana - Sesabamisad 11,2 procentuli wiliT. (ix. Ddiagrama #18)

diagrama #18

2014 wels 2013 welTan SedarebiT saeqsporto aTeulis pirveul or

qveyanasTan, azerbaijanTan da somxeTTan eqsportis moculoba SedarebiT

Semcirda, samagierod A am maCveneblis done gaizarda ruseTTan. zrda

105

dafiqsirda aSS-is, bulgareTis. CineTis mimarTulebiT saeqsporto

produqcis moculobis zrdaSic. Ees tendencia kargad Cans QqvemoT

mocemul diagramaze #19

Ddiagrama #19

saqarTvelos umsxvilesi saeqsporto aTeuli

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTad saeqsporto produqcias

warmoadgens: msubuqi avtomobilebi (518 mln. aSS dolari da mTeli

eqsportis 18 procenti). feroSenadnobebi - 286 mln. aSS (eqsportis 10

procenti), mesame adgilze spilenZis madnebisa da koncentratebis jgufia,

romlis eqsportma 248 mln. aSS dolari da mTeli eqsportis 10 procenti

Seadgina. D

diagrama #20

ukanaskneli ori wlis mixedviT eqsportis sasaqonlo struqturis

monacemebidan Cans, rom gazrdilia TiTqmis yvela saxis saeqsporto

106

produqciis moculoba msubuqi avtomobilebis garda. (misi moculoba

Semcirda 27%-iT)

Tu gadavxedavT eqsportis geografiul struqturas bolo wlebSi,

eqsportis saerTo moculobis zrdis fonze Semcirebulia germaniasa da

kanadaSi saqarTvelos eqsportis moculoba, Tumca, isini aTeulSi adgils

kvlav inarCuneben. aqve unda aRiniSnos isic, rom samive umsxvilesi

saeqsporto partniori warmoadgens Cveni qveynis mosazRvre qveyanas da maTi

wili mTlian eqsportSi Seadgens 38,7 procents, rac metyvelebs

saerTaSoriso bazrebze qarTuli produqciis mimzidvelobis dabal

doneze, aqedan gamomdinare nakleb popularobazec.

2014 wels saqarTvelos umsxviles savaWro aTeuls saTaveSi udgas

azerbaijani, 5444 mln. aSS dolariT, miuxedavad imisa, rom misi moculoba

wina welTan SedarebiT Semcirebulia 23,7 procentiT da misi wili mTlian

eqsportSi 19 procents Seadgens, SegviZlia vTqvaT, rom azerbaijanis wili

saqarTvelos eqsportSi wlebis ganmavlobaSi dinamikaSi mainc izrdeboda.

2014 wels (faqtiurad iseve, rogorc wina wels, gamonaklisia

avtomobilebi) ZiriTad saeqsporto produqcias azerbaijanSi warmoadgenda:

msubuqi avtomobilebi, safreni aparatis nawilebi, wnelebi naxSirbadiani

foladisagan, msxvilfexa rqosani pirutyvi, samkurnalo saSualebebi,

cementi da sxv.

saeqsporto qveynebis aTeulis meore adgils ikavebs saqarTvelos

meore mosazRvre qveyana somxeTi. 2013 wels somxeTSi eqsportma 2000 wlidan

yvelaze maRal maCvenebels miaRwia da 315,4 mln.lari Seadgina, xolo 2014

wels miRweuli done 8,7%-iT Semcirda 288,2 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, rac

mTliani eqsportis 10.0 procents Seadgens. ZiriTad saeqsporto saqonels

2014 wels warmoadgenda: msubuqi avtomobilebi, satvirTo avtomobilebi,

naxSirbadiani foladis wnelebis sasaqonlo jgufi da sxva.

rogorc grafikidan Cans, savaWro brunvis mixedviT qveynebis reitingis

sameulSi Sedis ruseTi, (iseve rogorc msxvil saeqsporto qveynebis

sameulSic.) 2014 wels misi wili mTlian eqsportSi 9,6 procents Seadgenda

da misi moculoba 274,9 mln.aSS.dolars. Tu gadavxedavT monacemebs

dinamikaSi, misi wili eqsportSi sakmaod maRali iyo 2000 wels, rodesac

maCvenebeli 20,7 procents gautolda. Ees imas niSnavda, rom saqarTvelos

107

saeqsporto produqciis mexuTedi ruseTis bazarze gadioda. 2001-2005

wlebSi, ruseTi aTeulis lideri iyo da am periodSi saqarTvelos mTlian

eqsportSi misi wili saSualod 18.6 procents Seadgenda. ZiriTad

saeqsporto produqcias warmoadgenda: Rvino, mineraluri wylebi, spirtiani

sasmelebi, feroSenadnobebi, Txili, Saqari, manganumis madnebi, safreni

aparatebi, Cai da rkinigzis lokomotivebi. 2010-2011 wlebSi ruseTSi

gadioda: eleqtroenergia, msubuqi avtomobilebi, feroSenadnobebi,

manganumis madnebi da oqsidebi.

2014 wels saqarTvelodan ruseTSi ganxorcielebuli saeqsporto

nakadebis dinamika SegviZlia warmovadginoT Semdegi diagramis saxiT:

(diagrama #20).

diagrama #20

eqsportis dinamika saqarTvelodan ruseTSi(2001-2014)

rogorc Cans, 2002 wlidan SeiniSneboda eqsportis mzardi tendencia

ruseTSi, romelic Seicvala 2006 wlidan. Aam dros Mmisi maCvenebeli 2005

welTan SedarebiT 51.0 procentiT Semcirda da 2010 wlamde sitematuri

Semcirebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda. Amisi mizezi iyo embargo, romelic

ruseTma, politikuri da ekonomikuri mosazrebebis gamo, qarTuli

warmoebis produqciaze daawesa. Aamis gamo ruseTSi eqsportis wilma

saqarTvelos mTliani eqsportis mxolod 8.1 procenti Seadgina, maCvenebeli

108

Semdgom wlebSi kidev Semcirda da 2011 wels ruseTis wili saqarTvelos

eqsportSi 4.7%-s gautolda da is poziciurad me-12 adgilze aRmoCnda.

radikalurad icvleba situacia 2012 wlis Semdeg. Mmarto 2013 wels

ruseTTan eqsportSi 307,4% mateba dafiqsirda, xolo 2014 wels 2013 welTan

SedarebiT 44,1%-iani matebaa da ruseTis wilma saqarTvelos eqsportSi

9,6%-s miaRwia.

2014 wels ruseTSi ZiriTad saeqsporto producias warmoadgenda:

yurZnis naturaluri Rvinoebi, romlis moculoba marto wina welTan

SedarebiT 82%-iT gaizarda, mineraluri da mtknari wylebi, aqac matebis

maRali tempi-107% dafiqsirda, 4,3 jer gaizarda aradenaturirebuli 80 % -

ze naklebi spirtis koncentraciiT eTilis spirtisa da spirtiani

sasmelebis eqsporti, 30%-iT gaizarda feroSenadnobebis eqsporti.

rac Seexeba imports, ruseTidan saqarTveloSi Semodis xorbali, misi

moculoba 2013 welTan SedarebiT marTalia mcired (1%-iT), magram mainc

gaizarda. gaizarda agreTve, navTobis airebi da airisebri

naxSirwyalbadebis importi 32%-iT, 46%-iT Semcirda navTobi da

navTobproduqtebis importi ruseTidan, 2013 welTan SedarebiT 39%-iT

gaizarda ruseTidan eleqtroenergiis importi, Sokoladisa da kakaos

Semcveli danarCeni mza kvebis produqtebis Semotana qveyanaSi gaizarda 3%-

iT.

saqarTvelos umsxvilesma saimporto aTeulma 2014 wels mTliani

importis 68.3 procenti Seadgina da sxva qveynebTan erTad moicavda dsT-is

da evrokavSiris 3-3 wevr qveyanas (diagrama #). analogiuri maCvenebeli wina

wels 67.4 procents Seadgenda e.i. qveynis saimporto moTxovnis TiTqmis 2/3

aTi qveynis produqciiT kmayofildeba.

109

diagrama #21

umsxvilesi saimporto aTeuli

saimporto produqciaSi sWarbobs navTobi da navTobproduqtebi,

romlis importma 918 mln. aSS dolari da mTeli importis 10,7 procenti

Seadgina, msubuqi avtomobilebi, romlis importi 715 mln. aSS dollari

iyo da mTeli importis 8,3 procentia ekava, navTobis airebisa da airisebri

naxSirwyalbadebis sasaqonlo jgufi - 369 mln. aSS dolariT (importis 4,3

procenti) da sxva. (ix. diagrama #22)

diagrama #22

detalurad D2014 wlis importis sasaqonlo struqtura ZiriTadi

produqciis mixedviT qvemoTaa ganxiluli.

rac Seexeba sxva qveynebs, 2014 wels 2013 welTan SedarebiT importi

TurqeTidan gaizarda 23%-iT, CineTidan 20%-iT, germaniidan 4%-iT,

110

iaponiidan 15%-iT, azerbaijanidan 2,4%-iT, ruseTidan 1,8%-iT, xolo

ukrainidan- 9%-iT Semcirda. Ayovelive amis Sedegad qveynebis wili mTlian

importSi Semdegnairad gadanawilda:

Ddiagrama #23

importis sasaqonlo struqturaSi umsxviles aTeuls mTliani importis

daaxloebiT 40 procenti uWiravs es mowmobs importis asortimentis

mravalferovnebas da Cveni qveynis damokidebulebis maRal xarisxs

Semotanil produqciaze.

rogorc vxedavT, umsxviles saimporto aTeuls, 2007 wlidan dRemde,

saTaveSi udgas TurqeTi. 2014 wels TurqeTidan importma 1 727 420,4 aTasi

aSS dolari da mTliani importis 20 procenti Seadgina, rac wina welTan

SedarebiT 23 procentiTaa gazrdili. ZiriTad saimporto saqonels

samSeneblo masalebi da samkurnalo saSualebebi, airis turbinebi, Savi

liTonebis metalokonstruqciebi, Savi liTonebis milebi da milakebi,

izolirebuli mavTulebi da kabelebi warmoadgens. zogadad, TurqeTidan

importis sasaqonlo struqtura sakmaod mravalferovania da 1000-mde

dasaxelebis sasaqonlo jgufs moicavs. rac Seexeba saqarTvelodan

TurqeTSi eqsportirebul umsxviles sasaqonlo jgufebs, aq gamoiyofa

azotovani sasuqebi (wina welTan SedarebiT 64%-iTaa gazrdili),

trikotaJis nawarmi (gaizarda 21%-iT), naxevarfabrikatebi rkinisa an

aralegirebuli foladisagan (gaizarda 1,3%-iT), xorcisa da Tevzis fqvili

gaizarda (45%-iT).

111

importis mixedviT meore adgilze imyofeba CineTi, 732 958,9 aTasi aSS

dolariT, rac mTlian importSi 9%-s Seadgens. wina welTan SedarebiT, am

qveynidan importi 19,8 procentiT, xolo 2012 welTan SedarebiT 19,9%-iT

aris gazrdili. CineTTan urTirToba gansakuTrebiT intensiuri gaxda 2006

wlidan. Aam dros importma 103,331.8 aTasi. aSS dolars gadaaWarba da 2010

wels 335 206,5 aTasi aSS dolari Seadgina. 2014 wels ki es maCvenebeli 732

958,9aTas aSS dolars miuaxlovda.

mesame adgils, sameulis ucvleli wevri, azerbaijani ikavebs 637 592,2

aTasi aSS dolariT. wina welTan SedarebiT, am qveynidan importi 2,4

procentiT Semcirda da mTliani importis 7,4 procenti Seadgina.

azerbaijanidan importis 82 procents navTobi da navTobproduqtebi da

bunebrivi airi Seadgens. Ggarda amisa, azerbaijanidan Semodis TabaSiri,

anhidriti, baTqaSi eleqtroenergia (1000 kvt. sT.) eleqtruli aparaturis

sayrdenebi da sxva.

rac Seexeba ruseTs, umsxvilesi importiori qveynebis aTeulSi, amJamad

imyofeba meoTxe adgilze. ruseTidan importi 2014 wels 2013-welTan

SedarebiT 1.8%-iTaa Semcirebuli Dda 577 713,4 aTasi aSS dolaria, xolo

misi wili 2014 wels mTlian importSi 6 procents Seadgens. Tu Tvals

gadavavlebT warsulis statistikas, 2000-2007 wlebSi ruseTidan importis

zrdis saSualo wliuri maCvenebeli 13.7 procents aRwevda. gansakuTrebuli

uaryofiTi gavlena am mxriv politikurma viTarebam moaxdina da 2008

wlidan importis absoluturi maCveneblis zrdis miuxedavad, saqarTvelos

mTlian importSi ruseTis wili 2013 wlamde ganuxrelad mcirdeboda.

rogorc analizma gviCvena, saqarTvelos umsxvilesi savaWro

partniorebi misi uaxloesi mezobeli qveynebia, rac ufro metad misaRebia

Cvens qveyanaSi arsebuli dabali Semosavlebis pirobebSi. teritoriuli

siaxlovis gamo transportirebisa da Sesabamisad dazRvevis dabali

danaxarjebi uzrunvelyofs produqciis naklebi fasnamatiT moZraobas

partnior qveynebs Soris da realizaciis procesis ufro metad

stimulirebas.

112

3.3 saqarTvelos sagareo valis statistikuri analizi

msoflio ekonomikur sivrceSi saqarTvelos integraciis erT-erT

maCvenebelia sxvadasxva qveynebTan sagareo vali warmosoba. saqarTvelom

Tavisi sagareo valebis aRricxvianobis mowesrigeba 1996-1998 wlebSi

daiwyo, ramac SesaZlebeli gaxada sagareo valis restruqturizebis

Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis gaformeba evrogaerTianebasTan. ormxrivi SeTanxmebebi

daido 11 qveyanasTan. 2001 da 2004 wlebSi saqarTvelom mravalmxrivi

molaparakebis safuZvelze miaRwia SeTanxmebas kreditor qveynebTan

sagareo valebis restruqturizaciasTan dakavSirebiT parizis klubis

egidiT, ris Sedegadac qveyanas mniSvnelovnad Seumsubuqda sagareo valebis

momsaxurebis simZime. zemoaRniSnuli restruqturizaciis Sedegad

uzrunvelyofilia sagareo valis mdgradoba, aRniSnuli tendencia dRemde

grZeldeba. amJamad, miRweulia is, rom saqarTvelos saxelmwifo sagareo

vali ZiriTadad SeRavaTiania.

qveynis mTliani sagareo vali drois mocemuli momentisaTvis

warmoadgens faqtobrivi, upirobo valdebulebebis gadauxdel Tanxas,

romelic moiTxovs am qveynis rezidenti debitoris mier

ararezidentisaTvis ZiriTadi an/da procentis gadaxdas momavali periodis

romelime momentSi. sagareo valis es ganmarteba sakmaod farTo xasiaTs

atarebs, romlis Tanaxmadac nebismieri valdebuleba, romelic momaval

periodSi gadasaxdeli iqneba ararezidentisTvis, CarTuli unda iyos

qveynis mTlian sagareo valSi. angariSsworebis dros saangariSo

erTeulad, gamoyenebulia aSS dolari.

saxelmwifo vali sagareo da saSinao valisgan Sedgeba. saxelmwifos

sagareo vali mTavrobis da saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis sagareo vals

moicavs, xolo saSinao ki saxazino da sxva saxelmwifo fasian qaRaldebs.

sagareo valis warmoqmnis wyaroebia: saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti,

saqarTvelos teritoriaze dakarguli tvirTebis Rirebuleba (magaliTad,

somxeTi), saqarTveloSi moxmarebuli bunebrivi airis Rirebuleba, e.w.

“sasaqonlo krediti” (CineTi, TurqeTi, iaponia), saxelmwifo garantiiT

aRebuli sesxebi.

113

rogorc 2.1 paragrafSi aRvniSneT, sagareo valis statistikis

informaciis wyaros warmoadgens saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis da

saqarTvelos teritoriaze moqmedi komerciuli bankebis, sadazRvevo

kompaniebisa da mikrosafinanso organizaciebis kvartaluri da Tviuri

angariSgeba ucxouri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis Sesaxeb, finansTa

saministros informacia saxelmwifo garantiiT aRebuli sagareo valis da

misi momsaxurebis Sesaxeb, statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris informacia

sawarmoTa saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri urTierTobebis Sesaxeb.

valis mniSvnelovani indikatoria mTlianad saxelmwifo da kerZo

seqtoris valebi. es maCvenebeli mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens qveynis

sakredito reitingze, rac gansazRvravs qveynis momavali valdebulebebis

saprocento ganakveTs (saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis dasafinanseblad

resursebze xelmisawvdomobis CaTvliT). Tu qveynis kerZo seqtors

gauCndeba problemebi misi ucxouri valdebulebebis momsaxurebis

TvalsazrisiT, mTavrobam unda miiRos zomebi qveynis kreditunarianobis

mdgradobis SesanarCuneblad.

2014 wels saqarTvelos mTliani sagareo valis maCvenebelma 13,1 mlrd

dolari Seadgina, rac wina welTan SedarebiT 150 milioni dolariT

naklebia. qveynis mTliani sagareo vali moicavs saqarTvelos saxelmwifo

seqtoris sagareo vals, kerZo seqtoris sagareo vals da erovnuli bankis

sagareo vals. erovnuli bankis monacemebiT saqarTvelos saxelmwifo

seqtoris sagareo vali 5.9 miliard dolars Seadgens, rac mTliani Sida

produqtis (mSp-is) 35.8%-ia. 2014 wlis bolos sagareo valis moculoba 2014

wlis 1 seqtembris monacemebs 3.8%-iT aRemateba. saxelmwifos kuTvnili

sawarmoebis mTliani vali 829 milioni dolaria, erovnuli bankis sagareo

valdebulebebi ki 251 milion dolars Seadgens.76

76 https://www.nbg.gov.ge/index.php?m=304

114

Ddiagrama#24

saqarTvelos mTliani sagareo vali 2013 wlamde zrdadi tendenciiT

xasiaTdeboda da misma moculobam 2013 wlis bolos istoriul maqsimums-

13,6 miliard dolars (mSp-s 88,3%-s) miaRwia. 2014 wels misi moculoba

Semcirebulia, magram savaluto kursis cvlilebis gamo, larSi

saxelmwofo valis moculoba 2014 wels gazrdlia. amave periodSi

samTavrobo seqtoris sagareo valma 4250 milion dolars miaRwia, rac 2012

wlis maCvenebels 4 mln dolariT aRemateba. erovnuli bankis maCvenebeli

am periodSi 252 milion dolaramde (230 mln lariT) Semcirda. mTlianad,

saxelmwifo seqtoris vali mSp-s 40%-ze naklebi rCeba. komerciuli bankebis

valebi 200 mln dolariT, sxva seqtorebis valebi- daaxloebiT 100 mln

dolariT gaizarda. pirdapiri investiciebi (konpaniaTaSorisi valebi)

Semcirda 210 mln dolariT; mTliani sagareo valis moculobam 13,5 mlrd

dolari, mSp-s 83% Seadgina (gacvliTi kursi=1.8). axali gacvliTi kursis

pirobebSi qveynis mTliani sagareo valis moculoba aRemateba mSp-s

moculobas (daaxloebiT 110%-s Seadgens). saxelmwifo sagareo valis naSTi.

2015-is 30 aprilis mdgomareobiT 4,04 mlrd aSS dolari, xolo mTavrobis

sagareo vali 4,01 mlrd aSS dolaria.

saqarTvelos wminda sagareo vali 8.5 miliardi dolari, 15.9 miliardi

laria (mSp-s 52%), saxelmwifo seqtoris wminda sagareo vali 3,2 milard

dolars, 5,9 miliard lars Seadgens.

2012-2014 ww-Si mniSvnelovani zrda dafiqsirda kerZo seqtoris sagareo

valSi. unda SevniSnoT, rom kerZo seqtoris dafinanseba xels uwyobs

115

momaval ekonomikur zrdas. amitom mTvarobis valis wilis Semcireba

mTlian sagareo valSi pozitiur cvlilebad fasdeba (zrda-piriqiT).

saqarTvelos mTlian sagareo valSi mTavrobisa da erovnuli bankis wili

2014 wlis bolos 33,1%-s Seadgenda, 2004 wlis 63%-is nacvlad. am

tendenciis gamo gaizarda saxelmwifos pirobiTi valdebulebebi da valis

marTvis strategiaSi mTavrobam unda gaiTvaliswinos aRniSnuli

cvlilebebi.

saxelmwifo saSinao valis nawilSi finansTa saministro axorcielebs

sxvadasxva vadiani saxazino valdebulebebis da obligaciebis emisias

saxelmwifo biujetis saWiroebebis dafinansebis da saSinao fasiani

qaRaldebis bazris ganviTarebis mizniT. garda amisa, saqarTvelos

mTavrobas ganTavsebuli aqvs evroobligaciebi saerTaSoriso kapitalis

bazarze. saxelmwifo valis sididis gansazRvrisTvis mxolod faqtobrivi

monacemebi arafers gveubneba. mniSvnelovania iseTi maCveneblebis

gansazRvra, rogoricaa valis procentuli Tanafardoba sabiujeto

SemosavlebTan, eqsportTan da mSp-sTan. yvela am kriteriums Tavisi zRvari

aqvs da sabolood samive erTad afasebs qveynis fiskalur mdgomareobas.

saxelmwifo valis mdgradobis yvelaze kargi ganmsazRvreli indikatori

misi nominalur mSp-Tan procentuli Tanafardobaa. saerTaSoriso

savaluto fondis mier dadgenili kriteriumebis mixedviT, valis

mdgradobis SesanarCuneblad ganviTarebuli qveynebisTvis vali mSp-s 60%-s,

xolo ganviTarebadi qveynebisTvis ki es maCvenebeli 50%-40%-s ar unda

aRematebodes. vinaidan saqarTvelo ganviTarebadi qveynebis jgufs

miekuTvneba (dabal-saSualo Semosavlis mqone qveynebs, sadac mTliani

erovnuli Semosavali erT sulze 1,036-4,085 dolaris farglebSia), amitom

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mixedviT, saxelmwifo vali procentulad

nominalur mSp- Tan mimarTebaSi 50%-s ar unda aRematebodes.

116

diagrama #25

saxelmwifo vali procentulad nominalur mSp-Tan

.

rogorc diagramidan Cans, rom 2003-2007 periodSi mTliani saxelmwifo

vali procentulad nominalur mSp-Tan mimarTebaSi klebis tendenciiT

xasiaTdeba, amitom saxeze iyo ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periodi. 2007-2010

wlebSi SeiniSneba zrdis tendencia - saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris saomari

moqmedebebis Semdgomi wlebi, xolo 2010 wlidan ki daiwyo kleba 2013 wlis

CaTvliT. rac Seexeba 2014 wels, saxelmwifo vali nominalur mSp- Tan

mimarTebaSi 35.5% -ia, xolo sagareo valis wili mSp-sTan ki-26.8%. 2014 wels

SeiniSneba maCveneblis wina welTan SedarebiT mcirediT gazrda. rac

Seexeba valis gadaxdisunarianobas, 2008 wlidan moyolebuli qveyana

valebs ZiriTadad droulad ixdida. magaliTad, 2008 wels saxelmwifos

mier gadaxdilma valma amave wlisTvis gegmiT gadasaxdeli odenobis 99,2%

Seadgina. 2009 wels gegma 98,6%-iT Sesrulda, 2010 wels-97,9%-iT, 2011 wels-

99,9%-iT, 2012 wels-96,7%-iT, xolo 2013 wels ki-96%-iT. rac Seexeba 2014 da

momdevno wlebs, qveynis gadaxdisunarianoba aRebuli Tanxebis racionalur

xarjvaze iqneba damokidebuli. Tu valebi ise iqneba gamoyenebuli, rom

Semdeg is qveyanas did ukugebas moutans, maSin es rogorc qveynis

gadaxdisunarianobis, aseve ganviTarebis maRal tempze gadasvlasac

Seuwyobs xels. rac Seexeba valdebulebebis zrdas, 2008 wlidan 2011

117

wlamde mudmivi variaciebiT xasiaTdeboda. 2011 wels aRebuli valis

odenoba 2010 welTan SedarebiT TiTqmis ganaxevrda, is 712 mln. lariT

Semcirda. amis mizezi mSp-s zrdis maRali tempi da qveyanaSi arsebuli

rTuli ekonomikuri mdgomareobis gaumjobeseba iyo. mSp-s zrdam mis

maqsimums 2011 wels miaRwia, rodesac 7.2% matebis tempi dafiqsirda, Tumca,

Semdeg daiwyo kleba. 2012 wels 2011 welTan SedarebiT valdebulebebi

gaizarda, 2013 wels mcirediT isev daiklo, xolo 2014 wels 2013 welTan

SedarebiT biujetis gegmiT gaTvaliswinebuli valdebulebebis odenoba 2,2-

jer gaizarda da 1,636 mln lari Seadgina.

finansTa saministros statistikis mixedviT, qveynis sagareo

valdebulebebi erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi ki 90 mln dolariT Semcirda.77

saxelmwifo sagareo vali saqarTvelos msgavsi ganviTarebadi

qveynebisTvis ucxouri valutis mozidvis erT-erTi mimzidveli saSualebaa.

metic, saxelmwifo sagareo vali saSinao valze ufro xelmwisawvdomia,

radganac erTwliani saSinao valis saprocento ganakveTi 6,5%-dan iwyeba,

xolo aTwliani valis saprocento ganakveTi 10%-s Seadgens. grZelvadiani

sagareo valis saprocento ganakveTi ki 1-2%-is farglebSi meryeobs.

sagareo valis kidev erTi upiratesoba isaa, rom sagareo vali ucxour

valutaSia, rac imas niSnavs, rom misi Semodineba laris gamyarebaze

dadebiT gavlenas axdens.

2014 wlisaTvis mTlian sagareo valSi pirvel adgilze kerZo seqtoris

valia, sabanko seqtoris sagareo vali 2.7 miliardi aSS dolaria, xolo

sxva kerZo seqtorebis vali 3.5 miliardi. saxelmwifo valis mTlian

moculobaSi sagareo vals 75,4%-, xolo Sida vals 24,6 % ukavia. sagareo

valSi 69% mravalmxrivi kreditorebisa da 19% ormxrivi kreditorebis

valebs ukavia, 12% ki-evroobligaciebs. ix.Ddiagrama @#26 da @#27

77 http://www.mof.ge/4410

118

Ddiagrama#2678

Ddiagrama #27

naSTis dinamika kreditorebis mixedviT79

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo sagareo valze wliuri Sewonili saprocento

ganakveTi daaxloebiT 2%-s Seadgens, maqsimaluri sakontraqto vada 24

welia. Sida valis maqsimaluri vada aris 10 weli da saprocento

ganakveTebi mniSvnelovnad maRalia.

78 saqarTvelos finansTa saministros saqarTvelos saxelmwifo valis statistikuri

biuleteni..#3, 2014.

79iqve

119

finansTa saministros monacemebiT, saerTaSoriso institutebis mimarT

qveyanas 2,8 mlrd dolari marTebs. kreditor safinanso institutebs

Sorisaa msoflio banki, soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso

fondi, saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi, rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis

evropuli banki, aziis ganviTarebis banki, evropis sainvesticio banki.

maTgan yvelaze msxvili kreditori safinanso instituti msoflio bankia.

saqarTvelos 17 ormxrivi kreditori saxelmwifo hyavs da maT winaSe

arsebuli davalianeba 709,2 mln dolaramdea. saxelmwifo fasiani

qaRaldebis gayidvidan miRebuli sagareo valis moculoba 500 mln

dolaria. ormxrivi kreditorebidan aRsaniSnavia avstria, Ggermania,

sagrangeTi, iaponia.

Ddiagrama #28

naSTi kreditorebis mixedviT80

Sida savalo instrumentebia saxazino valdebulebebi da saxelmwifo

obligaciebi da maTi saprocento ganakveTebi vadianobis mixdviT

gansxvavebulia.

obligaciebze saprocento ganakveTebi 2010 wlidan 2013 wlis

dekembramde Semcirebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda. amis Semdeg es

ganakveTebi gaizarda 2-3 procentuli punqtiT inflaciis ganakveTis zrdis

80 Ddiagrama agebulia finansTa saministros monacemebis safuZvelze.

120

gamo (realuri saprocento ganakveTi Semcirda). valis tvirTis

Sesafaseblad mniSvnelovania mTlinad saxelmwifo seqtoris valis

masStabebis gansazRvra.

saxelmwifo seqtori Sedgeba yvela im instituciuri erTeulebisagan,

romlebic kontroldeba pirdapiri an iribi gziT rezidenti saxelmwifo

erTeulebisagan. saxelmwifo seqtori moicavs: mTlianad mTavrobasa da

saxelmwifo korporaciebs.

saxelmwifo valis Sesaxeb oficialuri statistika gvawvdis

informacias mxolod centraluri xelisuflebisa da erovnuli bankis

Sesaxeb. is ar moicavs saxelmwifo korporciebisa da sajaro samarTlis

iuridiul pirebs (ssip). ssip arian kvazi-saxelmwifo korporaciebi, isini

dafinansebas iReben saxelmwifo biujetidan, Tumca, maT mier aRebuli

valebi ar aris konsolidirebuli oficialur saxelmwifo valis Sesaxeb

statistikur monacemebSi.

mTliani sagareo valis 93.6% denominirebulia ucxouri valutiT, 2014

wlis 31 dekembris mdgomareobiT valis 47,3% aRebulia specialuri

nasesxobis uflebiT, (SDR), 31,9% aSS dolarSi, xolo 17% evroSia, rac imas

niSnavs, rom erovnuli valutis gaufasureba larSi sagareo valis

moculobas zrdis.

diagrama #29

saxelmwifo valis 73,1% fiqsirebuli saprocento ganakveTiTaa da 26,9%

ki cvladi. saqarTvelos wminda sagareo valma 2014 wlis 31 dekembris

mdgomareobiT 8.5 mlrd aSS dolari (15.9 mlrd lari) Seadgina, rac 2014

121

wlis mSp-s 51.7 procentia. aqedan, saxelmwifo seqtoris wminda sagareo

vali 3.2 mlrd aSS dolaria (5.9 mlrd lari), rac mSp-s 19.2 procentia.

daniSnulebis mixedviT sagareo vali gamoiyeneba sainvesticio

proeqtebis dasafinanseblad, biujetis mxardamWeri sesxebisa da

restruqturirebuli kreditebisaTvis, savaluto fondidan erovnuli bankis

mier aRebuli sesxebisaTvis da fasiani qaRaldebisaTvis.

seqtorebis mixedviT yvelaze meti biujetis mxardaWerasa da sagzao

infrastruqturis gaumjobesebas moxmarda. (mag. mdgradi urbanuli

transportis ganviTarebis sainvesticio programa (aziis ganviTarebis banki-

65 mln lari;) aRmosavleT-dasavleTis Cqarosnuli avtomagistralis

zestafoni–quTaisi–samtrediis monakveTis mSenebloba-rekonstruqcia

(iaponiis saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis saagento-89 mln lari da a.S.) Tu

2013 wels biujetis mxardaWeraze modioda aTvisebuli Tanxis 18,2%, 2014

wels misi sidide 31,5%-iT gaizarda da 49,7% Seadgina. MmaSin, rodesac

sagzao infrastruqruris srulyofaze aTvisebuli Tanxebis xvedriTi wili

14,1 procentuli punqtiT Semcirda da 2013 wlis 43,6^%-dan 29,5%-mde davida.

Ddiagrama #30

aTvisebuli Tanxa seqtorebis mixedviT

dinamikaSi mcirdeba energetikis sferoSi aTvisebuli sesxebis

xvedriTi wili. 2014 wlis monacemebiT is mxolod 5,6%-is donezea, romelic

2012 welTan SedarebiT 17,9% procentuli punqtiT aris Semcirebuli.

statistikisaTvis mniSvnelovania valis klasifikacia saxeobebis

mixedviT. D

122

diagrama #31

rogorc diagramodan Cans, mniSvnelovania maCveneblebi dinamikaSi

erovnuli bankis mimarT da e.w. istoriuli valis maCveneblebi.

3.4 pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Tanamedrove tendenciebi

saqarTveloSi

saxelmwifos sainvesticio politika qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

umniSvnelovanes instruments warmoadgens. Eefeqtiani sainvesticio

politikis gatarebiT saxelmwifos SeuZlia gavlena moaxdinos warmoebis

moculobis zrdaze, samecniero-teqnologiuri procesis dinamikaze.

saerTod sainvesticio politika mdgomareobs makro da mikroekonomikuri

investirebis SerwymaSi. Aamitom misi umniSvnelovanesi principi iqmneba

yvela ekonomikuri berketiT – saxelmwifos mier sainvesticio

saqmianobisaTvis xelsayreli ekonomikuri garemos SeqmniT, sakredito,

sagadasaxado da sxva maregulirebeli instrumentebiT.

ekonomikuri datvirTvidan gamomdinare investiciebis mTavari funqcia

erovnuli ekonomikis zrdis tempebis daCqarebis xelSewyobaa, is xels

Seuwyobs integraciul procesSi CarTvasa da adgilobrivi kadrebis

kvalifikaciis amaRlebas, gamoacocxlebs da waaxalisebs krizisSi myof

sawarmoebs, Sida warmoebas uzrunvelyofs aucilebeli finansuri

123

saxsrebiT. saqarTvelo ramodenime ekonomikuri regionis makavSirebeli

rgolia, evropisa da aziis gzajvaredinze myofi mniSvnelovani satranzito

qveyanaa da faqtiurad bunebrivi satransporto derefnis rols asrulebs.

saqarTvelo yvelaze mokle satranzito marSrutia dasavleTsa da

centralur azias Soris navTobisa da gazis, aseve, mSrali tvirTis

transportirebisaTvis.

transformirebadi ekonomikis mqone qveynebSi investiciebi, upirveles

yovlisa, mimarTuli unda iyos ekonomikuri zrdis uzrunvelyofaze.

amisaTvis saWiroa maTi iseTi ganTavseba, rom uzrunvelyofil iqnas maRali

donis sawarmoo da socialuri infrastruqturis Camoyalibeba, eqsportze

orientirebuli da importCanacvlebadi sawarmoebis Camoyalibeba da

ganviTareba, mrewvelobaSi produqciis gadamuSavebis maRali stadiis

(donis) miRweva, inovaciebis danergva, inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis SeZena.81

saqarTveloSi Tanamedrove sainvesticio politika xelsayrelia

rogorc adgilobrivi, ise ucxoeli investorebisaTvis. kerZod, qveyanaSi

arsebobs liberaluri sainvesticio garemo, Tanabari pirobebia Seqmnili

adgilobrivi da ucxouri investiciebisaTvis, xorcieldeba Tvisufali

sabazro ekonomikuri politika, arsebobs mxolod 6 gadasaxadi da Tan

Semcirebuli sagadasaxado ganakveTebi, qveyanas aqvs xelsayreli

geografiuli mdebareoba, izrdeba saqarTvelos sainvesticio potenciali

da is ucxoeli investorebisTvis sul ufro mimzidveli xdeba.Aam process

ufro intensiurs xdis qveyanaSi biznesis dawyebisa da misi warmatebuli

ganviTarebisaTvis xelsayreli pirobebi. kerZod, liberalizebuli biznesis

licenzirebisa da nebarTvis sistema, administraciuli procedurebis

simartive, preferenciuli savaWro reJimebi msoflios mraval qveyanasTan,

kargad ganviTarebuli da integrirebuli satransporto sistema,

konkurentuli, ganaTlebuli kvalificiuri samuSao Zala da sxva.

amis Sedegad TandaTanobiT ufro advili xdeba ganviTarebuli

qveynebis bazrebze qarTuli produqciis SeRweva. es gansakuTrebiT

mniSvnelovania, radgan zogierTi saxis saboloo moxmarebis

importirebuli produqcia qveyanaSi Semodis iaf, xSirad dempingur

81Abesadze R., Burduli V. Innovative Activities and their Coordination under Advancing Globalization. – The Caucasus

& Globalization. CA&CCPress. SWEDEN. Vol. 3, Issue 4, 2009 p. 68-89, pp. 93-94.

124

fasebSi. importul produqtze dempinguri fasebi qveynis ekonomikisaTvis

sasargebloa mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac Sesabamisi produqciis

warmoeba ar arsebobs da misi warmoebis dawyeba, e. i. importis Canacvleba,

didi danaxarjebis gamo mizanSeuwonelia.82 sxva SemTxvevebSi dempinguri

fasebi moaxdenen investiciuri aqtiurobis SezRudvas. mxedvelobaSia

misaRebi, rom kvebis mrewvelobaSi xdeba naturaluri nedleulis Secvla

ufro iafi importuli mcenareuli nedleuliT (magaliTad, rZis

produqtebis iaffasiani palmis da sxva tropikuli zeTebiT, xorcis

produqtebSi gadaWarbebiT xmaroben soios da sxva surogatebs). amis

Sedegad ufro met mogebas iReben gadamamuSavebeli warmoebis mewarmeebi da

importiorebi, magram mkveTrad mcirdeba warmoeba soflad, gansakuTrebiT,

mecxoveleobis seqtorSi. 83

zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, saWiroa swori, efeqturi sainvesticio

politika, romelic mimarTuli iqneba im warmoebis gnviTareba-

gafarToebisaken, romlebic awarmoeben saeqsporto produqcias da amave

dros uzrunvelyofen importuli produqciis Canacvlebas.

saqarTveloSi sainvesticio saqmianobas aregulirebs kanoni

„investiciebis saxelmwifo mxardaWeris Sesaxeb“, romlis mizania

investiciebis ganxorcielebis xelSewyoba, investiciebis dabandebisa da

samewarmeo saqmianobisaTvis aucilebeli procedurebis gaumjobeseba.

2003 wlis Semdeg sainvesticio garemos gaumjobesebis mizniT

ganxorcielebulma reformebma da iniciativebma dadebiTi Sedegebi gamoiRo,

rac saerTaSoriso kvlevebiTa da SefasebebiTac dasturdeba.

winaswari monacemebiT, saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis moculobam 2014 wels 1272 mln. aSS dolari

Seadgina, rac 35 procentiT aRemateba wina wlis dazustebul monacemebs.

82 Гадыршин И. Возможности снижения антидемпинговых мер в ходе экономической интеграции. – Общество и

экономика. №7, 2011.83 abesaZe,r. Burduli, v. saerTaSoriso biznesis gavlena sainvesticio aqtiurobaze mcire

qveyanaSi,saerTaSorisosamecniero-praqtikulikonferenciis:globalizacia, saerTaSoriso

biznesis Tanamedrove problemebi da ganviTarebis tendenciebi Sromebiskrebuli. Tb., 2012

gv. 303-304

125

diagrama#32

Ppirdapiri ucxoiri investiciebis dinamika saqarTveloSi 2010-2014 w.w.

(mln.aSS.dolari)

amave periodSi reinvesticiis moculobam mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis 21 procenti Seadgina. cxrili #9 asaxavs reinvestirebuli

Tanxebis wils mTlian pirdapir ucxour investiciebSi 2010-2014 wlebSi.

cxrili #9

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis reinvesticia saqarTveloSi 2010-2014*w.w,

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

reinvesticiis wili mTlian pirdapir

ucxour investiciebSi (%)28 30 13 29 21

rogorc vxedavT, pirdapir ucxour investiciebSi pirveladi

investiciidan Semosavlis saxiT miRebuli saxsrebis xelmeored, damatebiT

dabandebis xvedriTi wilis yvelaze dabali maCvenebeli bolo periodSi 2012

wels dafiqsirda, rac imaze metyvelebs, rom investicirebis Sedegad

Semosavlebis mxolod 13 procenti iqna xelaxla dabandebuli, rac

investorisaTvis arasasurveli sainvesticio da biznes garemos CamoyalibebiT

iyo gamowveuli. .2013 wels maCvenebeli TiTqmis gaormagda, rac dadebiTi

faqtia, magram 2014 wels 8 procentuli punqtiT Semcirda da 21% Seadgina.

126

Tu gavaanalizebT kvartlebis mixedviT pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis statistikas, TvalSi sacemia pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis maRali zrdis tempi 2014 wlis me-4 kvartalSi.

Ddiagrama#33

investiciebi kvartlebis mixedviT 2009-2014 w.w.

saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

moculobam 2014 wlis me-4 kvartalSi 349.2 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, rac

53.9%-iT aRemateba 2013 wlis me-4 kvartalis dazustebul maCvenebels, xolo

49.4%-iT 2012 wlis meoTxe kvartlis monacems (2012 wlis meoTxe kvartalSi

- 233 mln aSS dolari dafiqsirda). 2014 wlis IV kvartalSi umsxvilesi

pirdapiri ucxouri investori qveynebis mixedviT pirvel adgilze

azerbaijani imyofeba 24 procentiT, saidanac 84 mln aSS dolaris

moculobis investicia ganxorcielda, meore adgilzea niderlandebi 19%(67

mln aSS dolari), xolo mesame adgils ikavebs gaerTianebuli samefo (66

mln aSS dolari) aseve 19 procentiT.

seqtorebis mixedviT, saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis yvelaze didi wili transportsa da

kavSirgabmulobaze modis, sadac 90 mln aSS dolaris moculobis

investicia ganxorcielda, rac meoTxe kvartlis mTliani investiciebis

25.6%-s Seadgens. mas mohyveba mSenebloba - 87 mln. (mTliani investiciebis

25%), safinanso seqtori –78 mln. (22.4%), sastumroebi da restornebi–29

127

mln.(8.4%), damamuSavebeli mrewveloba –22 mln.(6.2%), samTomopovebiTi

mrewveloba – 14 mln.(4.0%), energetika – 6 mln.(1.7%), sxva – 23 mln.(6.5%)aSS

dolariT.84

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis nakadebi qveynebisa da regionebis

mixedviT araTanabradaa ganawilebuli.85 rogorc mosalodneli iyo

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis didi nawili ZiriTadad Tbilissa da

aWaraSi ganxorcielda, xolo Semdeg kaxeTsa da samegreloSi.

diagrama # 34

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi regionebis mixedviT

2010-2014 wlebSi sainvesticio nakadebis dinamikis mixedviT winaswari

monacemebiT, 2014 wels saqarTveloSi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

Semomavalma nakadebma 2198 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina (ix cxrili 10)

cxrili #10

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi saqarTveloSi 2010-2014ww. (mln.aSS dolari)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi, 814 1 117 912 942 1272

84 www.economy.ge85 LjamagiZe, l. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis gaadgilebis determinantebi samxreT

kavkasiis qveynebSi. J. ekonomika da biznesi,2014, #3 gv. 87

128

sul

maT Soris:

Semomavali nakadebi 1 303 1 596 1 430 2 234 2 198

investoris mimarT

valdebulebebis Semcireba-488 -478 -518 -1 292 -925

Tu gadavxedavT 2014 wels saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis dinamikas, umsxvilesi investori qveynebis mixedviT

gamovlindeba lideri investori qveynebis garkveuli nawili, romelTa

Soris lideroba sxvadasxva wlebis mixedviT sxvadasxva qveynebs ergo

wilad.

2014 wlis monacemebis mixedviT investori qveynebis aTeuls liderobs

niderlandebi (2013 welsac lideri niderlandebi iyo), saidanac 331,2 mln

dolaris moculobis investicia ganxorcielda, xolo meore da mesame

pozicias Sesabamisad azerbaijani - 302,1 mln dolariT, CineTi - 194,9 mln

dolariT ikaveben, 2012 wels ki topaTeuls liderobda gaerTianebuli

samefo, 2010 wels ki aSS.

Ddiagrama #35

sami umsxvilesi investori qveynis wilma mTlian pirdapir ucxour

investiciebSi 2014 wlis winaswari monacemebis mixedviT 65 procenti

Seadgina. qveynebis procentul struqturas ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis mixedviT gviCvenebs seqtoruli diagrama #36,

romlis mixedviT pirvel adgilze niderlandebi imyofeba 26 procentiT,

meoreze - azerbaijani 24 procentiT, xolo mesameze - CineTi 15 procentiT.

129

diagrama#36

Tu gavaanalizebT pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis retrospeqtrul

suraTs, SevniSnavT, rom investirebaSi gansxvavebuli tendenciebi

gamovlindeba. 2005 wels pirdapirma ucxourma investiciebma saqarTveloSi

Seadgina 449,8 mln aSS dolari (2004 wels - 499 mln aSS dolari).

garkveuli kleba wina wlebTan SedarebiT gamowveuli iyo baqo-Tbilisi-

jeihanis navTobsadenis mSeneblobis dasrulebiT, Tumca sxva investiciebis

(ara navTobsadenTan dakavSirebuli) moculoba 2004 welTan SedarebiT

gaizarda 44 mln aSS dolariT-183 mln aSS dolari Seadgina. 2005 welTan

SedarebiT 2006 wels pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi saqarTveloSi 740,2

mln aSS dolariT gaizarda da 1 190 mln aSS dollars gautolda, xolo

2007 wels 2 014,8 mln aSS dolari gaxda (2006 welTan SedarebiT matebis

tempma 69,3% Seadgina). 2008 wels pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

moculoba Semcirda 450 mln aSS dolariT ( 23 %-iT) da 1 564 mln aSS

dolari Seadgina. 2009 wels kidev ufro Semcirda 905.6 mln aSS dolariT

anu 58%-iT da 658.4 mln aSS dolari Seadgina.D

130

diagrama #37

Ppirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis dinamika86

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli – 2 015

mln aSS dolari 2007 wels dafiqsirda, rac 69,3%-iT aRemateba wina wlis

monacems. investiciebis maRali tempi SenarCunebuli iyo 2008 wlis

agvistomde. mkveTrad Semcirebis Semdeg 2010 wlidan fiqsirdeba pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis zrdis tempebi. 2011 wels wina welTan SedarebiT es

maCvenebeli 37%-iT gaizarda da 1 117.2 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, 2012

wels, saqarTveloSi 18%-iT naklebi investicia ganxorcielda (912 mln aSS

dolaris moculobiT), 2014 wels investiciebis moculoba 1255 mln aSS

dolariT ganisazRvra, rac 2013 wlis maCvenebels 37%-iT aRemateba.

2013 weli qarTuli ekonomikisTvisNmetad mniSvnelovani iyo, radgan

ganxorcieldaAA ekonomikis da biznesis politikuri wnexisgan

gaTavisufleba, Seiqmna warmoebis ganviTarebisaTvis Tavisufali garemo,

mewarmes mieca saSualeba Tavad gansazRvros sakuTari biznesis

ganviTarebis prioritetebi, cxadia, maTi kerZo sakuTrebis uflebebis

dacvis pirobebSi.

2014 wlis naerT biujetSi arafinansuri aqtivebis SeZena (rac

warmoadgens saxelmwifos mxridan qveyanaSi ganxorcielebul investiciebs)

9 Tvis (ianvari-seqtemberi) monacemebiT 1081,8 mln lars gautolda.

saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemebiT ZiriTadi

86 Ddiagrama agebulia saqstatis monacemebis safuZvelze.

131

kapitalis mTlianma formirebam 7,534.7 mln lari Seadgina. Sesabamisad,

saxelmwifos investiciam mTlian investiciaSi daaxloebiT 31.5% Seadgina,

xolo kerZo investiciis moculobam – 68,5%.

yvelaze meti pirdapiri ucxouri investicia transportsa da

kavSirgabmulobaSi ganxorcielda 343 mln. aSS dolaris odenobiT, rac

mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 27 procentia. meore adgilze

imyofeba mSenebloba 295 mln. aSS dolariT, xolo mesameze -

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 174 mln. aSS dolariT. pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis ganawileba ekonomikis seqtorebis WrilSi, 2014 wlis

mixedviT, mocemulia cxrilSi #11

cxrili #11

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT 2010-2014*

ww. (mln. aSS dolari)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*sul 814 1 117 912 942 1 272

maT Soris:

transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 215 127 73 140 343

mSenebloba 5 48 42 50 295

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 175 120 168 100 174

energetika 22 204 179 245 99

uZravi qoneba 119 225 53 42 87

safinanso seqtori 107 168 163 166 78

samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba 53 40 5 44 48

sastumroebi da restornebi 17 23 18 -13 40

soflis meurneoba, TevzWera 9 15 16 12 19

janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri

daxmareba 1 17 18 1 1

danarCeni seqtorebi 90 131 178 156 88

ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT 2014 wels ganxorcielebuli

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis procentuli ganawileba mocemulia

diagramaSi #38:

132

diagramaSi #38

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT

2014 wels

2013 wels ki yvelaze meti ucxouri investicia ganxorcielda

energetikis seqtorSi _ mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 21,7 %.

safinanso seqtorSi ganxorcielebulma investicebma mTliani moculobis

18,6% Seadgina, transportsa da kavSirgabmulobaSi _ 15,1%, xolo

damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi 14,7%

2009-2012 wlis monacemebis mixedviT, saxelmwifo investiciebis wili

mTlian investiciebSi mcirdeboda. Aase magaliTad, Tu 2009 wels es

maCvenebeli 37,6% iyo, 2010 wels 34,9% dafiqsirda, 2011 wels 22,9% da 2012

wels 24,2% aRiniSna. 2012 wlidan daiwyo momateba da bolo monacemebiT

saxelmwifo investiciebis wili mTlian investiciebSi 31,5%-ia.

saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebidan calke unda gamoiyos evrokavSiris, rogorc saqarTvelos

strategiuli partnioris mier ganxorcielebuli investiciebi, romelTa

moculobam 2014 wels 640,507.4 mln aSS dolari Seadgina, rac 64%-iT metia

2013 wlis maCvenebelze, xolo 45%-T aRemateba 2012 wlis da 158%-T 2010

wlis dones, magram 44%-iT CamorCeba 2007 wlis maCvenebels, rodesac

investiciebis moculobam yvelaze maRal niSnuls miaRwia.

133

diagrama #39

investiciebis dinamika 2000-2014 wlebSi

cxrili 12

evrokavSiris qveynebis mier saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri

investiciebi (mln aSS dolari)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

avstria 11,384.4 51,463.4 29,709.0 10,045.0 28,517.2 13,499.9 5,235.0 2,719.5

belgia 1,563.7 62.0 112.7 23.4 -19.5 -844.8 92.5 508.5

bulgareTi 20.6 12.7 -291.4 -90.0 916.4 2,234.6 2,562.6 854.5

kviprosi 148,643.6 26,165.8 -1,612.1 40,387.7 10,358.7 38,684.6 -106,439.9 12,506.9

CexeTi 227,926.4 34,857.6 45,679.0 24,213.5 46,598.3 8,031.4 43,578.3 7,458.0

Dania 158,126.2 256.3 -427.3 18.1 97,170.4 6,558.1 9,572.4 10,804.2

estoneTi 594.0 -210.8 5,723.2 -51.9 -332.5 385.5 -1,974.3 1,864.3

fineTi - - - 1,533.3 993.0 1,085.7 1,235.9 844.4

safrangeTi 43,726.0 8,179.7 11,958.4 -7,820.1 7,353.1 25,863.8 11,034.4 19,479.4

germania 56,987.8 40,590.6 21,345.0 12,848.0 25,512.9 138,812.5 21,828.3 -2,969.4

saberZneTi 1,349.7 -1,850.4 1,521.6 4,485.3 1,184.8 177.9 -552.6 -649.5

ungreTi 1,010.1 1,025.3 -46.9 - - -32.5 -79.5 -

irlandia -1,663.2 223.5 64.6 316.2 278.5 206.5 733.7 994.9

italia 15,228.1 6,047.8 1,683.8 5,140.8 -5,233.3 529.2 -141.7 3,949.6

latvia 3,102.1 756.5 -18.0 -0.5 -103.0 1,052.4 -2,675.7 6,138.7

litva 327.3 -113.9 3,560.3 2,441.1 -1,847.1 578.4 5,390.9 3,618.9

luqsemburgi 9,245.7 5,731.0 9,496.6 7,059.9 43,284.0 42,031.6 142,545.0 85,243.1

134

malta - - - 16,767.9 6,186.3 32,204.2 43,165.8 38,391.4

niderlandebi 299,277.2 135,870.2 32,586.4 73,362.2 241,819.1 35,368.2 153,184.8 331,234.4

poloneTi 19.1 22.9 10.8 53.0 152.3 -13.6 1,363.8 -22.4

portugalia 13.2 117.2 24.4 21.6 -3.7 167.9 2,489.9 -1,275.9

rumineTi - 5,430.6 - -11.2 41.3 - 80.6 432.5

slovakeTi - - 23.3 8.8 20.1 3,686.3 -278.0 291.3

espaneTi 3,590.2 5,474.8 137.0 91.4 30.2 941.9 -1,645.1 3,254.8

SvedeTi 6,779.1 7,634.8 -8,831.4 -1,596.1 -3,615.2 -4,464.5 5,265.2 983.9

gaerTianebu

li samefo

145,474.8 148,907.6 72,313.2 58,964.2 54,976.7 93,603.1 55,171.3 113,851.5

Ddiagrama#40

2014 wels Semosuli investiciebis mixedviT evrokavSiris qveynebis

topaTeuli Semdegnairad gamoiyureba:

wina welTan SedarebiT ZiriTadad ar Secvlila umsxvilesi investori

qveynebis aTeuli, mxolod zogierTma qveynebma daikaves gansxvavebuli

adgilebi aTeulSi mag., safrangeTi-meSvide adgilidan gadavida me-5-ze,

luqsemburgi-meoredan gadavida mesameze, litva saerTod aRar moxvda

aTeulSi da a.S (ix. cxrili #13). maSin, rodesac 2012 wels investor

qveynebis sias liderobda Ggermania, 2013-2014 wlebSi is aTeulSic ver

Sevida.

135

cxrili#13

ZiriTadi qveynebis wili mTlian pirdapir ucxour investiciebSi 2014w

Qqveyana 2013 2014moculoba(mln aSSdolari)

wili(%)Mmoculoba(mln aSSdolari)

wili(%)

niderlandebi 153,184.8 16,3 331,234.4 26

gaerTianebulisamefo 55,171.3 5,9 113,851.5 8.9

Lluqsemburgi 142,545.0 15,1 85,243.1 7

Mmalta 43,165.8 4,6 38,391.4 3

safrangeTi 11,034.4 1,2 19,479.4 2

Ddania 9,572.4 1 10,804.2 1

CexeTi 43,578.3 4,6 7,458.0 0.6

aRsaniSnavia, rom evropuli samezoblo politikis samoqmedo gegma

gulisxmobs imas, rom Ria ekonomika da pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi

xels Seuwyobs saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebas da amis safuZvelze

qveynis mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis gaumjobesebas. unda aRiniSnos, rom

rogorc Ria ekonomika, Rrma da yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis

formireba da Sesabamisad kargi sainvesticio garemo pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebisTvis, erTmaneTs avsebs. samwuxarod, Cveni qveynis sagareo

vaWrobis mTavari problema kvlav uaryofiTi savaWro balansia. didi da

mzardi savaWro deficiti ki sxvas arafers niSnavs, Tu ara imas, rom Ria

vaWrobas avtomaturad ar moaqvs sargebloba. faqtia, rom jer-jerobiT

sainvesticio da biznesklimati mewarmeebisaTvis ver qmnis saTanado

pirobebs aqtiurobisa da stimulirebisaTvis.

136

3.5 evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTadi maCveneblebis

grZelvadiani prognozebis gaangariSeba

ekonomikuri movlenebisa da procesebis dinamikis statistikuri

prognozireba emyareba trendis gamovlenas. Tanamedrove statistikis

praqtikaSi trendis gamovlenisa da analizis mravali meTodi gamoiyeneba,

maT Sorisaa meqanikuri da analizuri meTodebi. meqanikuri meTodi moicavs:

sriala (anu mcocavi) saSualos, sasualo absolutur matebisa da

saSualowliuri zrdis tempebis safuZvelze trendis gamovlenas, xolo

analizuri meTodebi gulisxmobs sxvadasxva saxis funqciebis gamoyenebas.

Tumca, trendis analizisas gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos ori midgoma:

logikuri da formalizebuli. logikuri midgomis dros trendi

ganxiluli unda iyos rogorc mravali sxvadasxva faqtoris (ZiriTadi da

araZiriTadi, raodenobrivad ganzomadi da araganzomadi faqtorebis)

erToblivi zemoqmedebis Sedegi. amasTan, aucilebelia yvela konkretul

SemTxvevaSi konkretuli faqtorebis gavlenis Sefaseba cal-calke.

formalizebuli midgomis gamoyenebisas saWiroa dinamikuri mwkrivis

danawevreba Semadgenel komponentebad da maTi cal-calke gamosaxva

statistikuri formiT.87

Cveni azriT, statistikuri prognozirebis dros mizanSewonilia

mocemuli empiriuli mwkrivis analizi rogorc logikuri, ise

formalizebuli midgomebis gamoyenebiT. mxolod aseT SemTxvevaSi miiRweva

realuri trendis gamovlena, rac safuZvlad daedeba adekvaturi

saprognozo modelebis SerCevas da Sesabamisi prognozuli maCveneblebis

gaangariSebas.

nulovani trendis gamomsaxveli dinamikuri mwkrivebis prognozireba

did sirTules ar warmoadgens, magram aseTi doneebi iSviaTia, radgan

ekonomikuri movlenebis mdgomareobis amsaxveli dinamikuri mwkrivis

doneebi sxvadasxva faqtorebis zemoqmedebis gamo mniSvnelovnad SeiZleba

gansxavdebodnen erTmaneTisagan. Aamitom trendis gamosavlenad

mizanSewonilia mcocavi saSualos gamoyeneba. Uunda aRiniSnos, rom

87.gelaSvili, s. ekonomikuri procesebis statistikuri prognozireba gv 71

137

intervalis sididis optimaluri variantis zustad gansazRvra

SeuZlebelia. igi konkretuli pirobebis gaTvaliswinebiT unda

ganisazRvros.

zogadad dinamikuri mwkrivi gamoisaxeba Semdegnairad: … ... ,

pirobiTad intervalis sidided avirCioT 3, maSin sriala saSualos

meTodiT trendis gamovlena moxdeba Semdegnairad:88

;3

3211

yyyy ;

3432

2yyyy

;3

5433

yyyy ;

312

1nnn

nyyyy

prognozirebisaTvis dinamikuri mwkrivis doneTa cvlileba sxvadasxva

mimarTulebiT moiTxovs ganviTarebis saerTo tendenciis dadgenisaTvis em-

piriul doneTa ( nyyyy ....3,2,1 ) mosworebas iseTi Teoriuli doneebis

( nyyyy ˆˆˆˆ ,....3,2,1 ) gaangariSebiT, romlebic naTlad gamoavlens movlenis ganviTa-

rebis saerTo mimarTulebas.

Sesaswavli movlenebis dinamikuri mwkrivis doneebi xSir SemTxvevaSi

daaxloebiT Tanabari sididiT icvlebian. aseT SemTxvevaSi trendis

gamosavlenad mizanSewonilia saSualo absoluturi matebis koeficientis

gamoyeneba, rac gulisxmobs imas, yoveli done miiReba wina donisa da

saSualo absoluturi matebis jamis safuZvelze. saSualo absoluturi

mateba gaiangariSeba Semdegi formulebiT:

1-n

, an1nYY 0n

.

trendis gamovlenis procedura ki Semdegia:

11ˆ yy , 12 YY

; 2123 YYY

da a.S. )1(11 nYYY nn

sadac, aris Teoriuli (mosworebuli) dinamikuri mwkrivis i-uri doneebi;

88.gabiZaSvili, b. statistika ekonomikaში, biznessa da menejmentSi.Tb., 2011.gv. 312

138

mocemuli empiriuli dinamikuri mwkrivis sawyisi done;

i - mocemuli mwkrivis doneebis rigiTi nomeri.

movlenaTa statistikuri prognozirebisas xSirad gamoiyeneba saSualo

wliuri zrdis tempi. es gansakuTrebiT xdeba maSin, rodesac mocemuli

mwkrivis doneebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia progresulad mzardi tendencia.

saSualowliuri zrdis tempis mixedviT mwkrivis eqstrapolaciis procesi

igivenairad mimdinareobs, im gansxvavebiT, rom mwkrivis sawyisi done mrav-

ldeba saSualowliur zrdis tempze:

11 YY

; KYY 12

;

2123 KYKYY

,…,

)1(11

n

nn KYKYY

sadac:

Aaris zrdis saSualo tempis koeficienti;

– empiriuli dinamikuri mwkrivis sawyisi done;

- dinamikuri mwkrivis saboloo done;

n – doneTa ricxvi mocemul mwkrivSi.

zrdis saSualo tempi ki gaiangariSeba Semdegi formulebiT:

nnkkK ...k 21 an 1

1

n n

YY

K

rogorc vxedavT, ukanasknel SemTxvevaSi zrdis saSualo tempis

koeficientis sidide damokidebulia mxolod sawyisi da saboloo doneebis

mniSvnelobebze. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu es doneebi didi gadaxrebiT

xasiaTdebian, maSin am meTodiT gaangariSebuli koeficienti gamousadegari

iqneba mwkrivis mosasworeblad.

A am dros mizanSewonilia mocemuli dinamikuri mwkrivis yvela donis

CarTva gaangariSebebSi Dda ise zrdis saSualo tempis gaangariSeba:

sadac, aris dinamikuri mwkrivis i – iuri done (i=1,2,3,…n)

139

saSualowliuri zrdis tempi SeiZleba gaviangariSoT ufro martivi

formuliTac (gelaSvilis formuliT), romelsac Semdegi saxe aqvs:89

,:3 1

1 yyyyK nMe

sadac 1y - droiTi mwkrivis sawyisi donea;

My e - droiTi mwkrivis medianuri, anu centraluri donea;

ny - droiTi mwkrivis bolo donea.

dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebis ufro srulyofili xerxia analitiku-

ri, saidanac gamoiyofa: wrfivi, paraboluri, hiperboluri an maCvenebliani

funqciiT mosworeba da prognozireba. zogadad analitikuri xerxi iTva-

liswinebs empiriuli doneebidan mocemuli funqciis safuZvelze iseTi Te-

oriuli doneebis gaangariSebas, romelic adeqvaturad asaxavs movlenis

ganviTarebis saerTo suraTs. mTavari am xerxis gamoyenebis dros aris mos-

worebis Sesabamisi funqciis SerCeva, rac unda efuZnebodes movlenis Sina-

arssa da ganviTarebis Taviseburebebs.

martivad, gantolebaTaA SerCevis safuZvels warmoadgens dinamikuri

mwkrivis doneebis cvalebadobis xasiaTi. kerZod, Tu doneebi icvleba ariT-

metikuli progresiiT anu Tanabrad izrdeba an mcirdeba, maSin gamoiyeneba

wrfivi funqcia, xolo Tu geometriuli progresiiT, maSin romelime araw-

rfivi funqcia _ parabola, hiperbola, an maCvenebliani funqcia.

dinamikuri mwkrivis doneebis mosworebis analizuri xerxis safuZvel-

ze umcires kvadratTaA meTodis saSualebiT iseTi Teoriuli doneebi gai-

angariSeba, romelTa empiriuli doneebisagan gadaxrebis kvadratebis jami

minimaluri iqneba: min)( 2 tyy

E ekonomikuri procesebis dinamikis statistikuri prognozirebisas

xSirad gamoiyeneba wrfivi funqcia, romelsac Semdegi saxe aqvs: = +

dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebuli doneebia, 0a da 1a gantolebis

parametrebia. xolo t wlebis aRmniSvnelia.

89 gelaSvili, s. ekonomikuri procesebis statistikuri prognozireba gv 105

140

umcires kvadratTaA meTodis safuZvelze miRebul normalur gantole-

baTa sistemas eqneba Semdegi saxe:

yttataytana

210

10

statistikaSi arsebobs am sistemis amoxsnis martivi xerxi, rac iTva-

liswinebs wlebis aTvlas centridan, ris Sedegadac wrfivi funqciis para-

metrebi gaiangariSeba Semdegi saxiT:

;0 ny

a 21 t

yta

im SemTxvevaSi ki rodesac movlenebisa da procesebis cvlileba

SedarebiT swrafad mimdinareobs, maSin trendis gamovlena SesaZlebelia

ganxorcieldes paraboluri funqciiT: = +

parametrebis gansazrvra xdeba umcires kvadratTa meTodis gamoyenebiT,

romlis Sesabamisadac normalur gantolebaTa sistema miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

242

31

20

32

210

2210

yttatata

yttatata

ytatana

A

am SemTxvevaSic Tu wlebis aTvla daiwyeba centridan, maSin normalur

gantolebaTa sistemis gamartivebis Semdeg parametrebis gamosaTvleli

formulebi miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

;2

20 n

taya

2

2

1 tyt

a

224

22

21 tttntyytn

a

141

im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac saprognozo obieqti icvleba geometriuli

progresiiT, maSin trendis gamovlena xdeba maCvenebliani funqciis

gamoyenebiT:

gamoTvlebis gamartivebis mizniT igi daiyvaneba wrfiv formamde,

risTvisac saWiroa misi galogariTmeba, am SemTxvevaSic Tu wlebis aTvla

daiwyeba centridan, maSin normalur gantolebaTa sistemis gamartivebis

Semdeg parametrebis gamosaTvleli formulebi miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

log ;log

0 ny

a log ;)log(

21

tyt

a

Cvens mier ganxiluli trendis gamovlenis maTematikur-statistikuri

xerxebi amiT ar amoiwureba. Cven yuradReba gavamaxvileT iseT xerxebze,

romlebic yvelaze ufro xSirad gamoiyeneba statistikuri prognozirebis

Teoriasa da praqtikaSi90

zogjer movlenebis statistikuri prognozirebisas mizanSewonilia

mravalfaqtoriani modelebis gamoyeneba. Tumca, aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom,

rogorc erTfaqtoriani, ise mravalfaqtoriani modelebi ar gamoricxavs

erTmaneTs, piriqiT, isini statistikuri prognozirebis erTiani

meTodologiuri sistemis Semadgeneli nawilebia. movlenebisa da

procesebis dinamikis prognozirebaSi, rodesac saWiroa mravalfaqtoriani

modelis gamoyeneba, SedarebiT ufro sasurvel Sedegs iZleva Semdegi saxis

saprognozo modeli:

sadac, prognozuli maCveneblebia, a0, a1, a2…an gantolebis

parametrebia, x0, x1, x2…xn - faqtorebia, xolo t - saprognozo periodi.

dinamikis mravalfaqtoriani prognozirebisas SeiZleba gamoyenebuli

iqnas aseve paraboluri, xarisxovani da sxva tipis modelebi.

SeuZlebelia iseTi mravalfaqtoriani modelis ageba, romelSic

mocemuli iqneba kvlevis obieqtis cvlilebaze moqmedi yvela faqtori.

amitom xSirad mravalfaqtorian modelSi SeaqvT drois faqtori (t),

90 gelaSvili, s. ekonomikuri procesebis statistikuri prognozireba. gv 89

142

romelic warmoadgens modelSi aRuricxavi yvela faqtoris erToblivi

zemoqmedebis asaxvas. aseT models aqvs Semdegi saxe

t - s CarTvis mTavari mizani aris modelSi Sesatani faqtorebis

Semcireba. praqtikaSi Zalian xSirad sakmarisia xolme aseTi saxis

mravalfaqtoriani modelis gamoyeneba:

x1, x2 da x3 iseTi faqtorebia, romlebic mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdenen

kvlevis obieqtis ganviTarebaze.

saqarTvelos evrokavSiris qveynebTan eqsport-importis

prognozirebisaTvis gamoviyeneT yvela zemoT ganxiluli martivi da

analizuri meTodi, agreTve kompiuteruli programa Eview-6.

Pprognozirebis dasawyisSive ganisazRvra mTavari mizani- im meTodisa

da modelis SerCeva, romlis mixedviTac gaangariშebuli maCveneblebisaTvis

empiriuli doneebisagan gadaxrebis kvadratebis jami iqneboda minimaluri,

rac umcires kvadratTaA meTodis mTavar pirobas warmoadgens. amosaval

sainformacio bazas 2000-2014 wlebis eqsport-importis dinamikuri mwkrivi

warmoadgenda.

cxrili #14

eqsport-importis dinamika (2000-2014 w.w.)

wlebi Eeqsporti

aTasi aSS dolari

importi

aTasi aSS dolari

200069 394,0

161 535,9

2001 55 961,2 214 544,9

2002 59 027,2211 795,3

2003 77 748,2 380 372,7

2004 111 363,4 604 352,9

2005 165 160,2 627 350,4

2006 157 901.9 947 822.6

2007 268 530,3 1 538 897,3

2008 335 153,8 1 756 449,6

143

2009237 546,8 1 335 506,6

2010 309 513,41 467 162,8

2011 424 300,2 2 057 198,9

2012 353 006,5 2 431 111,4

2013 607 891,3 2 270 720,9

2014 620 804,6 2 369 355,0

radgan ekonomikuri procesebis prognozirebisas aucilebelia erTi da

imave droiTi mwkrivis doneebis sxvadasxva meTodebiT prognozireba, amitom

importis saprognozo maCveneblebis Sedarebisa da saimedoobis maRali

xarisxis uzrunvelsayofad movaxdineT importis dinamikuri mwkrivis

mosworeba da prognozireba saSualo absoluturi matebis, saSualo

wliuri zrdis tempisa da wrfivi funqciis safuZvelze. Sedegad

gamovavlineT importisa da eqsportis, agreTve evrokavSiris qveynebTan

sagareo vaWrobis, saeqsporto da saimporto nakadebSi evrokavSiris

xvedriTi wilebis dinamikuri mwkrivis trendi da gaviangariSeT

saprognozo maCveneblebi.

saSualo absoluturi matebisa da saSualo wliuri zrdis tempis

gasaangariSeblad gamoviyeneT formulebi:

157701.414

9.1615350.23693551

1

nn 14.1

0.2369355183741779.161535183741771

nYYY

K

analizuri meTodebidan Cveni SemTxvevisaTvis misaRebi aRmoCnda wrfivi

funqcia. cnobilia, rom gantolebaTaA SerCevis safuZvels warmoadgens

dinamikuri mwkrivis doneebis cvalebadobis xasiaTi. radgan Cvens

SemTxvevaSi doneebi icvleba ariTmetikuli progresiiT (anu Tanabrad iz-

rdeba), amitom SevCerdiT wrfiv funqciiT mosworebis modelze.

gamartivebuli meTodiT normalur gantoleba sistemis amoxsnis Sedegad

miviReT a0 da a1 parametrebis mniSvnelobebi: a0=1224945.1 a1=180032, xolo maTi

wrfis gantolebaSi Casmis Sedegad - wrfivi gantoleba: y=1224945.1+180032.3t.

saSualo absoluturi matebis, saSualo wliuri zrdis tempisa da

wrfivi funqciis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli importis saprognozo

144

maCveneblebi warmovadgineT cxrili #15-is saxiT. amasTan, samive meTodiT

gamoTvlili saprognozo maCveneblebidan gaviangariSeT saSualo

mniSvnelobebi:

cxrili #15

wlebi importis saprognozo maCveneblebi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

wrfivi

funqciiT

gaangariSebuli

saSulo

absoluturi

matebiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualowliuri

zrdis tempiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualo

prognozi

2015 2665204 2527056 1122278 2104846

2016 2845236 2684758 1277092 2269029

2017 3025268 2842459 1453264 2440330

2018 3205300 3000160 1653737 2619733

2019 3385333 3157862 1881866 2808353

2020 3565365 3315563 2141463 3007464

2021 3745397 3473265 2436872 3218511

2022 3925430 3630966 2773032 3443142

2023 4105462 3788667 3155563 3683231

2024 4285494 3946369 3590864 3940909

importis saprognozo maCveneblebis dinamikuri suraTi warmovadgineT

diagramis saxiTac:

diagrama#41

145

uTuod sainteresoa evrokaSiris qveynebTan importis wilis

cvlilebisa da prognozirebis sakiTxi. Aamitom zemoT ganxiluli

prognozirebis samive meTodiT SevecadeT gangvesazRvra importSi

evrokavSiris mosalodneli wilis sidide da gagvekeTebina Sesabamisi

daskvnebi. wrfivi funqciiT mosworebisas normalur gantolebaTa sistemis

parametrebi aRmoCnda a0=28.4 da a1==0.11-is toli. saSualo absoluturi

mateba 0.37, xolo saSualowliuri zrdis tempi 1.013 dafiqsirda. maT

safuZvelze gaviangariSeT evrokaSiris qveynebTan iportis wilis

prognozebi, xolo Semdeg saSualo prognozi.

cxrili #16

prognozirebis samive meTodiT gaangariSebuli importSi evrokavSiris

wilis dinamika

wlebi saprognozo maCveneblebi

wrfivi

funqciiT

gaangariSebuli

saSulo

absoluturi

matebiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualowliuri

zrdis tempiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualo

prognozi

2015 29.3 28.4 27.7 28.46

2016 29.41 28.7 28.07 28.74

2017 29.53 29.1 28.43 29.02

2018 29.64 29.5 28.8 29.31

2019 29.75 29.9 29.18 29.6

2020 29.87 30.2 29.56 29.89

2021 29.98 30.6 29.95 30.18

2022 30.1 31 30.34 30.47

2023 30.21 31.3 30.74 30.76

2024 30.32 31.7 31.14 31.06

vizualurad mosalodneli tendenciebis warmosadgenad gamoviyeneT

grafikuli meTodi da zemoTmotanili monacemebi warmovadgineT dinamikis

grafikiT.

146

diagrama #42

importSi evrokavSiris wilis prognozi

analogiurad movaxdineT eqsportis dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworeba da

Semdeg prognozireba saSualo absoluturi matebis, saSualowliuri zrdis

tempisa da wrfivi funqciis safuZvelze. Aamitom pirvel rigSi

gaviangariSeT saSualo absoluturi mateba da saSualo wliuri zrdis

tempi:

47.9386314

0.693946.6208041

1

nn 171.1

6.62080438533476939438533471

nYYY

K

Semdeg ki wrfivi gantolebis parametrebis mniSvnelobebi:

a0= 256889.82, xolo a1=39085.04

P

umcires kvadratTa meTodis gaTvaliswinebiT mosworebul doneebsa da

empiriul donebs Soris gansxvavebis safuZvelze davadgineT, rom

mosworebisaTvis yvelaze zustia saSualo absoluturi matebis meTodi.

Eeqsportis dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebis Sedegad samive meTodiT

gaangariSebuli prognozebi warmovadgineT cxrili 17-s saxiT. amasTan

miRebuli prognozebis safuZvelze gaviangariSeT prognozul maCvenebelTa

saSualo mniSvnelobebi, ramdenadac migvaCnia, rom isini saimedoobis

maRali xarisxis Semcvelni arian.

147

cxrili#17

წlebi Eeqsportis saprognozo maCveneblebi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

wrfivi

funqciiT

gaangariSebuli

saSulo

absoluturi

matebiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualowliuri

zrdis tempiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualo

prognozi

2015 569570.1 660191.1 736791.1 6555184

2016 608655.1 699577.5 862473.7 723568,7

2017 647740.2 738964 1009595 798766,3

2018 686825.2 778350.5 1181813 882329,7

2019 725910.3 817737 1383408 975685

2020 764995.3 857123.4 1619392 1080503,7

2021 804080.3 896509.9 1895629 1198739,7

2022 843165.4 935896.4 2218988 1332683,3

2023 882250.4 975282.8 2597505 1485013

2024 921335.4 1014669 3040590 1658864,7

saSualo saprognozo maCveneblebi eqsportis zrdis tendencias

gviwinaswarmetyveleben, magram ara im tempebiT, rogorc importis.

vizualurad mosalodneli tendenciebis warmosadgenad gamoviyeneT

dinamikis grafiki. D

diagrama#43

148

evrokavSiris qveynebis saqarTvelos importSi dakavebuli wilis

prognozis analogiurad movasworeT eqsportSi evrokavSiris qveynebis

wilis maCveneblebi 2000-2014 wlebSi da gaviangariSeT saprognozo

maCveneblebi 2015-2024 wlebisaTvis, romlebic warmovadgineT cxrili #18-is

saxiT:

cxrili #18

wlebi EeqsportSi evrokavSiris wilis saprognozo maCveneblebi

wrfivi

funqciiT

gaangariSebuli

saSulo

absoluturi

matebiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualowliuri

zrdis tempiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualo

prognozi

2015 21.2 21.2 21 22.0 22.1 21.82016 21.8 22.1 22.2 22.02017 22.4 22.4 22.8 22.52018 22.9 22.8 23.3 23.02019 23.4 23.0 23.5 23.32020 23.8 23.1 23.7 23.52021 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.82022 24.5 2.3 24.0 23.92023 25.0 23.4 24.1 24.22024 25.3 23.9 24.4 24.5

samive meTodiT daTvlili wilebis saprognozo maCveneblebi marTalia

mcire tempebiT, magram asaxaven evrokavSiris qveynebTan eqsportis wilis

mosalodnel zrdas, rac evropul bazarze qarTuli produqciis SeRwevis

mzardi tempebis xarjze iqneba SesaZlebeli. Aam dinamikis vizualuri

aRqmisaTvis Sedegebi gamovsaxeT dinamikis grafikiT.

diagrama #44

149

eqsportSi evrokavSiris wilis saprognozo maCveneblebi

da bolos, SegviZlia cxrilis saxiT warmovadginoT evrokavSiris

qveynebTan sagaro vaWrobis saprognozo maCveneblebis dinamika, rac

adasturebs brunvis absoluturad mzard tendencias.

cxrili #19

saqarTvelos evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo vaWrobis brunvis

saprognozo maCveneblebi

wlebi saprognozo maCveneblebi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

wrfivi

funqciiT

gaangariSebuli

saSulo

absoluturi

matebiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualowliuri

zrdis tempiT

gaangariSebuli

saSualo

prognozi

2015 3234774 3187247 1724361 2715461

2016 3453891 3384335 1971687 2936638

2017 3673008 3581423 2254488 3169640

2018 3892126 3778511 2577851 3416162

2019 4111243 3975599 2947594 3678145

2020 4330360 4172687 3370370 3957806

2021 4549478 4369774 3853784 4257679

2022 4768595 4566862 4406535 4580664

2023 4987712 4763950 5038568 4930077

2024 5206830 4961038 5761254 5309707

150

prognoziT miRebuli statistikuri tendenciis vizualuri aRqmisaTvis

arCevani SevaCereT dinamikis grafikze.

Ddiagrama #45

saqarTvelos evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo vaWrobis brunvis

saprognozo maCveneblebi

statistikuri prognozirebisas metad mniSvnelovania miRebuli

prognozebis xarisxis Sefaseba. prognozis xarisxi moicavs prognozis

sizustes, saimedoobas, regulirebis SesaZleblobas.

Pprognozis sizustis Sefasebis ori wesi arsebobs: pirveli

gulisxmobs faqtiuri da prognozuli mniSvnelobebis siaxlovis zomis

dadgenas, xolo meore- sarwmuno intervalis sididis Sefasebas, jer kidev

prognozis SemuSavebis procesSi.91 radgan prognozi albaTuri xasiaTisaa,

misTvis damaxasiaTebelia garkveuli zomis cdomilebebic, amitom

prognozis sizustis gansazRvrisaTvis miRebulia misi miaxloebuli

sididis gansazRvra.

prognozis sizustis gansazRvrisaTvis gamoiyeneba formula:

qppK

91 s.gelaSvili ekonomikuri prognozebis statistikuri prognozireba. Tb., 2012,Ggv. 180

151

sadac p aris faqtiur maCvenebelTa mniSvnelobebis moxvedra prognozul

intervalSi; xolo q-faqtiuri mniSvnelobebis prognozulTan ardamTxvevis

raodenobaa.

mocemuli formula gamoiyeneba intervaluri prognozebis sizustis

SefasebisaTvis. sxva SemTxvevaSi prognozis sizustis SefasebisaTvis

SeiZleba g. teilis gansxavebis (Seusabamobis) koeficientis gamoyeneba,

romelic Semdegi formuliT ganisazRvreba:

2

2

2

2 )(

:

:)(

y

yy

ny

nyyL

sadac y da y Sesabamisad prognozuli da faqtiuri mnivnelobebia.

wiladis mricxveli es aris prognozis saSualo kvadratuli Secdoma,

xolo mniSvneli-kvadratuli fesvi faqtiuri maCveneblis saSualo

kvadratidan. Tu LL-is mniSvneloba didia, maSin prognozis mniSvneloba

arazustia, xolo Tu misi mniSvneloba axlosaa 0-Tan, maSin prognozi

zustia. idealur SemTxvevaSi ki L=0, rac iSviaTad xdeba. aseT SemTxvevaSi

yvela prognozuli da faqtiuri maCvenebeli erTmaneTs emTxveva, rac

mxolod Teoriulad SeiZleba iyos.92

prognozirebisas didi mniSvneloba aqvs Tavad meTodis SerCevas.

aRsaniSnavia, rom xSirad martivi meTodebis gamoyeneba ukeTes Sedegebs

iZleva, vidre rTuli meTodebi. Tumca prognozirebis sizustis xarisxi

gacilebiT izrdeba, Tu Pprognozirebis sxvadasxva meTodis erTdroulad

gamoyeneba xdeba. verifikacia gulisxmobs ara mxolod prognosis

sizustisa da saimedoobis gansazRvras, aramed prognozis xarisxis

kompeqsur Sefasebasac. dRes statistikis praqtikaSi ganasxvaveben: pirdapir

da irib verifikacias. Ppirdapiri verifikaciis dros ukve arsebul

prognozul maCveneblebTan erTad gamoiTvleba axali prognozuli

92 s. gelaSvili-ekonomikuri procesebis statistikuri prognozireba. Tb., 2012, gv.181.

152

maCveneblebi prognozirebis sxva meTodebis gamoyenebiT, amis Semdeg

xorcieldeba maTi urTierTSedareba da SedarebiT ufro zusti da misaRebi

maCveneblebis dadgena. iribi verifikacia gulisxmobs miRebuli prognozis

Sedarebas analogiuri obieqtis ukve arsebul sxva prognozTan.93

evrokavSirTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTadi maCveneblebis

miRebuli prognozebis sizustis SefasebisaTvis Cven gamoviyeneT

verifikaciis pirdapiri meTodi, radgan eqsportisa da importis droiTi

mwkrivis wrfivi funqciiT mosworebisa da prognozirebis maCveneblebis

paralelurad, imave maCveneblebis gaangariSeba ganxorcielda saSualo

absoluturi matebisa da saSualowliuri zrdis tempis safuZvelze.

faqtiur da mosworebul maCvenebelTa Sedarebis safuZvelze ki arCeul

iqna zusti da SedarebiT zusti meTodebi, amitom gamoTvlili saprognozo

maCveneblebi SeiZleba CavTvaloT zustad da mosalodneli tendenciebi ki

saimedod. Aprognozis sizustis sailustraciod gaviangariSeT prognozis

sizustis Sefasebis g. teilis gansxavebis (Seusabamobis) koeficientis

mniSvnelobebi, romelic evrokavSiris qveynebSi saqarTvelos

eqsportisaTvis, 0,22-is, xolo importisaTvis 0,35 toli aRmoCnda, rac

prognozebis sizustis sakmaod maRal doneze miuTiTebs. amitom SegviZlia

davaskvnaT, rom Cvens mier gaangariSebuli saprognozo maCveneblebi

saimedoa da momavalSi saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri

integraciis maRal tempebs unda velodoT.

rogorc avRniSneT, xSirad martivi meTodebis gamoyeneba ukeTes

Sedegebs iZleva, vidre rTuli meTodebi. swored aseT SemTxvevasTan gvaqvs

saqme Cvens SemTxvevaSic, rodesac esport-importis saprognozo

maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad gamoviyeneT avtoregresiisa da mcocavi

saSualos modeli.

e.w. “avtoregresiisa da mcocavi saSualos” (ARIMA-s tipis) modeli

trenduli komponentis damatebiT, romelic napovnia kompiuteruli

programa Eviews-6-is gamoyenebiT gamoisaxeba Semdegnairad:

EXPS = 309857.612448 - 60784.0442144*@TREND + 10673.9271091*(@TREND)^2

93 s. gelaSvili-ekonomikuri procesebis statistikuri prognozireba. Tb., 2012, gv.182.

153

sadac @TREND drois xelovnur cvlads aRniSnavs.

amasTan, rogorc Sesabamisi gaangariSebebidan Cans, modelis

determinaciis koeficienti 0,97-is tolia, koeficientTa t-statistikebi

sakmaod maRalia, darbinisa da uotsonis statistika 2,2-s udris, F-

statistikis mniSvneloba ki 309-s. aqedan gamomdinare, modeli maRali

saimedobiT xasiaTdeba.

rac Seexeba am modelidan miRebul prognozul Sefasebebs 2015-2020

wlebisaTvis, isini naCvenebia Semdeg cxrilSi, sadac naTlad Cans

eqsportis mzardi tendencia:

cxrili #20

wlebi eqsportis prognozi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

2015 685427.8

2016 743572,9

2017 808774,3

2018 901 359,7

2019 995 780.7

2020 110 1503,9

eqsportSi evrokavSiris wilis prognozirebisaTvis gamoviyeneT isev

logariTmis e.w. ARIMA-s tipis modeli, romelic napovnia kompiuteruli

programa Eviews-6-is gamoyenebiT:

LOG(ECEXP) = 2.94123807967 + [AR(1)=0.552050739425,MA(1)=

1.88510845441,INITMA=1996,ESTSMPL="1996 2014"]

sadac AR(1) warmoadgens pirveli rigis avtoregresul wevrs, xolo MA(1) –

pirveli rigis mcocavi saSualos sidides (rogorc cnobilia, MA(1)=ut-1,

sadac ut-1 mocemuli gantolebis cdomilebaa erTi periodiT win).



154

sakmaod maRalia (Sesabamisad 58,6, 22,9 da -4,0), darbinisa da uotsonis

statistika 2,0-s udris, F-statistikis mniSvneloba ki 61,7-s. aqedan

gamomdinare, modeli sakmarisad saimedoa.


wlebisaTvis, isini naCvenebia Semdeg cxrilSi,

cxrili #21

wlebi eqsportSi evrokavSiris wilis

prognozi

2015 21,01.02016 21,72017 22.02018 22,32019 22,92020 23.0

importis prognozirebisaTvis gamoviyeneT logariTmis ARIMA-s tipis

modeli trenduli komponentis damatebiT, romelic napovnia kompiuteruli

programa Eviews-6-is gamoyenebiT:

LOG(IMPS) = 13.0215244643 + 0.162747893627*@TREND +

[AR(1)=0.613016767143,MA(1)=0.624324446179,BACKCAST=1996,ESTSMPL=

="1996 2014"]

sadac @TREND drois xelovnur cvlads aRniSnavs, AR(1) warmoadgens

pirveli rigis avtoregresul wevrs, xolo MA(1) –pirveli rigis mcocavi

saSualos sidides (rogorc cnobilia, MA(1)=ut-1, sadac ut-1 mocemuli

gantolebis cdomilebaa erTi periodiT win).



sakmaod maRalia (Sesabamisad, 30,7, 4,9, 2,6 da 2,7-is toli), darbinisa da

uotsonis statistika 1,7-s udris, F-statistikis mniSvneloba ki 155,8-s.

aqedan gamomdinare, modeli maRali saimedobiT xasiaTdeba.

155


wlebisaTvis, isini naCvenebia cxrilSi #22

cxrili #22

wlebi importis prognozi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

2015 3 685 405

2016 3 925 839

2017 4 285 292

2018 4 207 700

2019 4 638 534

2020 5 555 235

evrokavSiris wilis saprognozo gaangariSebebisaTvis gamoviyeneT

logariTmis e.w. ARIMA-s tipis modeli trenduli komponentis damatebiT,

romelic napovnia kompiuteruli programa Eviews-6-is gamoyenebiT:

LOG(ECIMP) = 3.24409890167 + 0.00591077428617*@TREND +

[AR(5)=0.155669470422,MA(5)=-0.961247548273,BACKCAST=2000,ESTSMPL=

="2000 2014"]

sadac AR(5) warmoadgens me-5-e rigis avtoregresul wevrs, xolo MA(5), me-5-

e rigis rigis mcocavi saSualos sidides (rogorc cnobilia, MA(1)=ut-5,

sadac ut-5 mocemuli gantolebis cdomilebaa erTi periodiT win).


determinaciis koeficienti 0,83-is tolia, me-2-e da me-3-e koeficientTa t-

statistikebi sakmaod dabalia, magram, rogorc cnobilia, es maincdamainc

ar uSlis xels, prognozirebis sizustes. darbinisa da uotsonis

statistika 2,4-s udris, F-statistikis mniSvneloba ki 18-s. aqedan

gamomdinare, marTalia modeli didi sizustiT namdvilad ar gamoirCeva,

magram mis bazaze garkveuli prognozebis gakeTeba mainc SesaZlebelia.


wlebisaTvis, isini naCvenebia Semdeg cxrilSi:

156

cxrili# 23

wlebi importSi evrokavSiris wilis

prognozi

2015 28,.3

2016 28,5

2017 28.9

2018 29.1

2019 29.4

2020 29.8

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba vTqvaT, rom rogorc eqsportis ise importis

SemTxevaSi trendis gamovlenisa da prognozirebis yvela gamoyenebuli

meTodebidan: (saSualo absoluturi mateba da saSualowliuri zrdis

tempi, wrfivi funqcia, aseve kompiuteruli programiT napovni

“avtoregresiisa da mcocavi saSualos” (ARIMA-s tipis) trenduli

komponentis damatebiT miRebuli modeli) yvelaze saimedo gamovida da

SedarebiT zust maCveneblebi mogvca wrfivi funqciiT mosworebis meTodma,

radgan mosworebuli doneebisa da empiriulis doneebis jamebi erTmaneTis

daemTxva, xolo sxva danarCen SemTxvevaSi gadaxrebi dafiqsirda. aqedan

gamomdinare, SegviZlia CavTvaloT, rom wrfivi funqciiT gaangariSebuli

saprognozo maCveneblebi ufro zustia sxva danarCeni meTodebiT

gaangariSebul maCveneblebTan SedarebiT da saimedoobis maRali xarisxiT

gamoirCevian. saqme imaSia, rom ARIMA-s tipis modelebi swrafad kargaven

prognozirebis unars, Tumca maTi gamoyeneba gamarTlebulia rTuli

procesebis prognozirebisaTvis moklevadian perspeqtivaSi. Cvens

SemTxvevaSi regresiis maxasiaTeblebma daasabuTa am modelis gamoyenebis

saimedooba.

zemoT ganxiluli meTodebi aris prognozirebis pasiuri meTodebi,

romelic emyareba im daSvebas, rom momavali unda iyos warsulis msgavsi.

aseTi prognozis aradamakmayofilebloba miuTiTebs swored aqtiuri

prognozirebis aucileblobaze, anu imaze, rom daisaxos konkretuli,

praqtikuli RonisZiebebi, romelic gardatexas Seitans arasasurvel

157

tendenciebSi, romelic gamoavlina pasiurma prognozirebam. Aaqtiuri

prognozirebis instrumentebs Soris gansakuTrebiT efeqturad iTvleba e.w.

scenarebis meTodi, romlis arsic swored konkretuli RonisZiebebis

dagegmvaSi mdgomareobs.

saprognozo maCveneblebis analizi cxadyofs, rom momavali 10 wlis

ganmavlobaSi, evrokavSiris qveynebTan rogorc eqsportis, ise importis

SemTxvevaSi unda velodoT sistematur zrdis tendencias, kerZod 2024

wlisaTvis esqporti 48,4 %-iT gadaaWarbebs 2014 wlis, xolo 20,4%^-iT 2020

wlis dones, importis SemTxvevaSi ki zrdis tempebi gacilebiT maRalia,

radgan 2024 wels 2014 welTan SedarebiT importi gaizrdeba 80,9%-iT, xolo

2020 welTan SedarebiT 20,2%-iT, cxadia im SemTxvevaSi Tu SenarCunda 2000-

2014 wlebSi Ggamovlenili tendencia. swored amaSia eqstrapolaciis

meTodis ZiriTadi arsi, romelic niSnavs, rom importis zrdis miRebuli

prognozuli Sefasebebi metismetad pesimistur suraTs ayalibebs, (misi

metismetad maRalia zrdis tempebis gamo). eski imas niSnavs, rom

saqarTvelos mTavar problemad kvlav uaryofiTi savaWro balansi darCeba.

advili misaxvedria, rom adgilobriv bazarzec qarTuli produqciiis

adgils isev ucxouri produqcia daikavebs. Sedegad, miviRebT imas, rom

saqarTveloSi samomxmareblo bazari isev gajerebuli iqneba

importirebuli produqciT. miuxedavad imisa, rom importis paralelurad

SeiniSneba eqsportis zrdis tendenciac, mainc gacilebiT dabalia

eqsportis zrdis tempebi. Pprognozis mixedviT importi 4,7-jer

gadaaWarbebs eqsports. isev ar unda velodoT eqsportiT importis

gadafarvis koeficientis gazrdas. aqedan gamomdinare, saqarTvelos

mTavrobis winaSe dgas mniSvnelovani gamowveva: saqarTvelos mTavrobis

ekonomikurma politikam unda uzrunvelyos inkluziuri ekonimikuri zrda,

SeimuSaos qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebis optimaluri gegma, yovelmxriv

Seuwyos xeli samamulo warmoebis aRorZinebas, saqarTveloSi warmoebuli

produqciisa da momsaxurebis konkurentunarianobis amaRlebis da

saerTaSoriso bazrebze damkvidrebis mizniT, xeli Seuwyos eqsportis

ganviTarebis damxmare sistemebis Seqmnas, saqarTvelos saeqsporto

produqciis cnobadobis amaRlebis da saeqsporto bazrebis Sesaxeb

158

mewarmeebis informirebulobis uzrunvelsayofad, raTa ar dauSvas aseTi

prognozis realizacia.

am arc Tu optimisturi prognozis pirobebSi, ikveTeba eqsportsa da

importSi evrokavSiris qveynebis wilis gazrdis molodinic, Tu SenarCunda

sakvlev periodSi dakavebuli wilis cvlilebis tendencia. maSin,

evrokavSiris wili eqsportSi 2020-2024 wlebSi 24-25%-is doneze

SenarCundeba, xolo importSi 31%-mde gaizrdeba. Aaq gasaTvaliswinebelia

msoflios qveynebis sxvadasxva dajgufebebis (suamis, dsT-s wevri qveynebis,

amerikis, aziis) saqarTvelosTan sagreo vaWrobis mzardi tendenciebi, rac

cxadia gavlenas iqoniebs evrokavSirTan savaWro urTierTobebis

maCveneblebzec. magram imedi unda viqonioT, rom saqarTvelos ekonomikis

zrdis paralelurad, evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli savaWro

sivrcis SeTanxmebis srulad amoqmedebis Semdeg, evrostandartebis sruli

dacvis pirobebSi, saqarTveloSi warmoebuli produqcia mimzidveli

gaxdeba evrokavSiris Sida bazrisaTvis, radgan evrokavSiris bazars

alternativa ar gaaCnia94 da srulad ganxorcieldeba saqarTvelos

evropasTan ekonomikuri integracia, riskenac ase miiswrafvis dRes Cveni

qveyana.

3.5 ,,evropuli konvergentuli” kriteriumebi da saqarTvelos

evrokavSirSi gaerTianebis mosalodneli tendenciebi

yofili sabWoTa kavSiris qveynebidan evrokavSirSi gaerTianebis

realur gzas, baltiispireTis qveynebis Semdeg ukrainasTan da

moldovasTan erTad daadga saqarTvelo. Mmagram evrokavSirSi gaerTianeba

garkveuli kriteriumebis dakmayofilebas moiTxovs, rac evropuli

94 naTia daReliSvili-Rrma da yovlismomcveli vaWrobis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba (DCFTA) _

realoba Tu „partnioroba qaRaldze?~J.,,ekonomika da biznesi,”#1 2013, gv. 91.

159

konvergentuli kriteriumebis saxiTaa cnobili. maastrixtis

xelSekrulebis mixedviT, evrokavSirSi gawevrianebisaTvis qveynebi unda

akmayofilebdnen Semdeg pirobebs:

1. mSp erT mosaxleze unda Seadgendes 10-12 AaTas dolars;

2. umuSevrobis done ar unda aRematebodes 10%-s.

3. inflaciis done unda fiqsirdebodes erTinSna cifris doneze;

4. qveynis sagareo vali ar unda aRematebodes mTliani Sida produqtis

60%-s.

5. saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti ar unda aWarbebdes mTliani Sida

produqtis 3%-s.

vnaxoT, akmayofilebs Tu ara saqarTvelo am moTxovnebs da

gavaanalizoT, rogoria saqarTveloSi yvela zemoT CamoTvlili

indikatoris dinamikuri suraTi.

yvelasaTvis cnobili Ffaqtia, rom qveynis ekonomikis funqcionirebis

Sedegebis mTavar makroekonomikur maCvenebels mTliani Sida produqti (mSp)

warmoadgens. romlis moculoba erT mosaxleze qveynebis reitinguli

klasifikaciis erT-erTi mTavari saklasifikacio niSania. Ees niSani didad

gansazRvravs qveynis cxovrebisa da saerTod qveynis ganviTarebis dones.

saqarTveloSi 1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis dinamika grafikulad

Semdegnairad gamoiyureba: (ix. diagrama #46)

Ddiagrama #46

1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis dinamika saqarTveloSi (aSS dolari)95

95 2014 wlis maCvenebeli gaangariSebulia mosaxleobis 2014 wlis aRweris winaswari

Sedegebis mixedviT.

160

Uunda aRvniSnoT, rom 2014 wlis maCvenebeli gaangariSebulia 2014

wlis mosaxleobos sayovelTao aReris winaswari monacemis mixedviT.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Semcirebam gamoiwvia erT sulze

mSp-s 20%-iT gazarda 2014 wlis winaswar monacemTan SedarebiT.

(romelmac 3680,8 aSS dolari Seadgina).

marTalia, saqarTveloSi fiqsirdeba 1 mosaxleze mSp-is sistematuri

zrdis tendencia, magram maastrixtis xelSekrulebis mTavar indikatorTan

miaxloeba da pirveli konvergentuli kriteriumis Sesruldeba

saqarTveloSi savaraudoT ver moxerxdeba. ,,saqarTvelo 2020” –is

prognozis mixedviT 1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis mosalodneli

sidide 8000 aSS dolaria, maastrixtis xelSekrulebis mixedviT ki

evrokavSiris wevrobis kandidat qveyanaSi misi sididie 10-12 AaTas

dolaramde unda gaizardos. EeqspertTa gaTvlebiT am niSnuls saqarTvelo

sagaro valis zrdis gareSe miaRwevs 10-12 wlis Semdeg.96Aamis

sailustraciod Cven ganvsazRvreT 1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis

mosalodneli tendenciebi, amitom gaviangariSeT saprognozo maCveneblebi

wrfivi funqciis safuZvelze. parametrebis mniSvnelobebis gaangariSebisa

da gantolebaSi Casmis Sedegad miviReT Semdegi saxis wrfis gantoleba:

y=2865,9+264,4t, romlis safuZvelzec gaviangariSeT mwkrivis saprognozo

doneebi da Sedegebi warmovadgineT cxrilis saxiT:

cxrili #24

96 Автандил Силагадзе, Тамар Атанелишвили - Некоторые сравнительные показатели экономическогоразвития новых ассоцированных постсоветских стран ЕС .Журн. «Социальная Экономика», №4. Тбилиси,

2014, стр. 63-64.

161

mSp-is prognozi erT sulze saqarTveloSiP2015-2020 wlebSi (aSS dolari)

P 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mSp erT sulzeP(aSS dolari) 4982 4453 5246.5 5511 5775.5 6040

mosaxleobis 2014 wlis aRweris monacemebis gaTvaliswinebiT miviReT

wrfivi gantoleba: y=2959,8+313,8t da mis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli

dinamikuri mkrivis doneebis Semdegi saprognozo maCveneblebi:

cxrili #25

mSp-is prognozi erT sulze saqarTveloSiP2015-2020 wlebSi (aSS dolari)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mSp erT sulzeP(aSS dolari) 4528.8 4842,6 5156,4 5470,2 5784.0 6097.8

wlebis mixedviT CaSlili maCveneblebi naTlad aCveneben maastrixtis

xelSekrulebis erT-erTi pirobis Seusruleblobas.

evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis erT-erTi pirobaa umuSevrobis donis

araumetes 10%-is farglebSi meryeoba. es problema saqarTvelosTvis erT-

erT mtkivneul da mougvarebel sakiTxad rCeba. qveyanaSi jer kidev maRalia

umuSevrobis done. romelic bolo monacemebiT 12,4%-is donezea.

oficialuri monacemebis mixedviT, umuSevrobis donem bolo periodSi

yvelaze maRal maCvenebels 2009 wels miaRwia, rodesac 16.9% dafiqsirda.

Tumca, Semdeg am maCvenebelma daiwyo kleba, 2012 wels 15.0%-mde, xolo 2013

wels 14,6%-mde daeca da Semdeg kidev ganagrZo kleba. dRes

qveyanaSiMmosaxleobis didi nawili (daaxloebiT ori mesamedi)

TviTdasaqmebulia. D faqtia, rom qveyanaSi umuSevrebisa da

TviTdasaqmebulebis raodenoba erTad Sromisunariani mosaxleobis

daaxloebiT 70 procentia. D

162

diagrama #47

umuSevrobis donis dinamika

„saqarTvelo 2020“-is mixedviT umuSevrobis done 2020 wels 12%-ian

zRvars miuaxlovdeba, gamodis, rom evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis am

pirobasac saqarTvelo samwuxarod ver Seasrulebs. Aamis erT-erTi mizezi

aris is, rom gasuli wlebis ekonomikurma reformebma gaTvaliswinebuli

Sedegi ver moitana. dRemde arsebul strategiul da saprogramo

dokumentebSi gacxadebuli miznebi, romlebic siRaribis da umuSevrobis

mniSvnelovan Semcirebas ukavSirdeboda, nawilobriv miuRweveli rCeba.

problemebis dasaZlevad da inkluziuri ekonomikuri zrdis misaRwevad

aucilebelia: sainvesticio da biznes garemos gaumjobeseba, inovaciisa da

teqnologiebis ganviTarebis xelSewyoba, eqsportis zrdis xelSewyoba,

infrastruqturis ganviTareba da satranzito potencialis maqsimaluri

gamoyeneba, Sromis bazris moTxovnebze orientirebuli samuSao Zalis

ganviTareba, socialuri uzrunvelyofis sistemis srulyofa, xelmisawvdomi

da xarisxiani jandacvis uzrunvelyofa, sainvesticio resursebis

mobilizeba da finansuri Suamavlobis ganviTareba.97 imisaTvis, rom

gagveanalizebina detalurad CaSlili umuSevrobis mosalodneli

tendenciis dinamikuri suraTi, gaviangariSeT misi saprognozo maCveneblebi

isev wrfivi funqciis safuZvelze, romlis parametrebis gaangariSebis

Semdeg miviReT Semdegi wrfivi gantoleba: y=14,8-0.15t . amis safuZvelze

97saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategia, saqarTvelo 2020” gv.5

163

gaviangariSeT mwkrivis saprognozo doneebi da Sedegebi warmovadgineT

cxrilis saxiT:

cxrili #26

umuSevrobis saprognozo maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi 2015-2020 @wlebSi

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

umuSevrobis done procentebSi 13.9 13.75 13.6 13.45 13.3 13.15

marTalia monacemebiT umuSevrobis done qveyanaSi mcirdeba, magram

qveyana 10 procentian zRvars 2020 wlisaTvis savaraudod ver miuaxlovdeba.

Aaranakleb mniSvnelovania inflaciis dinamika. strategia 2020

wlisTvis inflaciis 3%-iani saprognozo maCveneblebis miRwevas isaxavs

miznad. samomxmareblo fasebis wliurma zrdam 2%, xolo 2015 wlis ianvris

maCvenebelma ki 1.4% Seadgina. inflaciis Semcireba msoflio bazarze

navTobisa da sursaTis gaiafebam ganapiroba. miznobrivi prognozis

mixedviT, inflacia 5%-iani miznobrivi niSnulis dabla SenarCundeba 2015

wlis pirvel naxevarSi da mas wlis meore naxevarSi miaRwevs.

Ddiagrama #48

samomxmarebli fasebis indeqsebi (wina wlis Sesabamisi Tve =100)

amrigad moTxovna, rom inflaciis done unda fiqsirdebodes erTinSna

cifris doneze, realizebadia.

164

evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis MerT-erTi mTavari pirobaa sagareo valis

mSp-sTan procentuli Tanafardobis dadgenili sididis Sesruleba.

diagrama #49

sagareo valis wili mTlian Sida produqtSisaqarTveloSi 2005-2020 wlebSi

(procentulad)

saqarTelos erovnuli bankis monacemebiT, mTliani saxelmwwifo valis

wili mSp-Si 35,5 procentia, xolo sagareo valis wili 26,8 %-ia98.

„saqarTvelo 2020”-is mixedviT, 2020 wlisaTvis sagareo valis wili mSp-Si

40%-s miuaxlovdeba. Ggamodis rom am kriteriumis mixedviT qveyana didi

albaTobiT daakmayofilebs evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis maastrixtis

xelSekrulebis pirobas.

D bolo piroba, rac aucilebelia evrokavSirSi gaerTianebisaTvis, aris

is, rom saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti ar unda aWarbebdes mTliani Sida

produqtis 3%-s. saqarTveloSi es maCvenebeli zustad am sididis zRvarzea,

radgan GFSM-is mixedviT 3.2%-is donezea, amitom am mxrivac wayenebuli

piroba Sesrulebadia.

radgan erT-erTi problematuri sakiTxi 1 sulze mTliani Sida

produqtis miRweuli da mosalodneli donea, amis mixedviT movaxdineT

evrokavSiris qveynebis dajgufeba da gaviangariSeT saqarTvelosaTvis

saerTaSoriso dolarSi (maCvenebelTa Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofis

98 https://www.nbg.gov.ge/index.php?m=304

165

mizniT) gamosaxuli erT sulze mSp-is moculobis saprognozo maCveneblebi

2024 wlamde.

movaxdineT evrokavSiris qveynebis dajgufeba 1 sulze mSp-s mixedviT

Tanabarintervalian jgyfebad. sterJesis formulis gamoyenebiT

ganvsazRvreT gamosayofi jgufebis raodenoba. Mmagram miRebuli sididis

mixedviT dajgufeba logikurad azrs iyo moklebuli, radganac srulad

ver xdeboda jgufebis formireba (pirveli da meore jgufis garda arc

erTi jgufi ar iqmneboda), amis mizezi iyo ,,amovardnili” done

luqsemburgis gansakuTrebulad maRali maCveneblis gamo. Mmisi gamoricxva

SeuZlebeli iyo, amitom meoradi dajgufebis safuZvelze, gavamsxvileT

dajgufebis intervali da miviReT reitinguli klasifikaciis sami jgufi.

imisaTvis, rom monacemebi yofiliyo Sesadari isini gaangariSebul iqna

Sesadar fasSi, amitom msyidvelobiTi unarianobis paritetiT (PPP)

daTvlili mTliani Sida produqti erT sulze gamosaxuli iqna

saerTaSoriso dolarSi. maCveneblebi miRebuli iqna saerTaSoriso

dolarSi gamosaxuli mTliani Sida produqtis (PPP) SefardebiT

mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan.99A

amgvari gadajgufebis Sedegad Ppirvel jgufSi moxvda evrokavSiris

yvela is qveyana, romlis mTliani Sida produqti 1 sulze meryeobs: 17115,1-

42245,6 saerTaSoriso valutis farglebSi. am jgufSi gaerTianda

evrokavSiris 22 qveyana (bulgareTi, rumineTi, xorvatia, Llatvia, ungreTi,

poloneTi saberZneTi, portugalia, estoneTi, litva, slovakeTi, kviprosi,

CexeTi, სlovenia, malta, espaneTi, italia, gaerTianebuli samefo,

saფrangeTi, fineTi, belgia.) meore jgufSi gaerTianda is qveynebi, romelTa

mSp 1 sulze Seadgens: 42245,6-67376,1. saerTaSoriso dollars. aq Sevidnen:

dania, SvedeTi, Ggermania, avstria, irlandia, niderlandebi da bolo

jgufSi Sevida mxolod luqsemburgi, romlis mSp erT sulze 92,506.63

99 saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi ar warmoadgens PPP-is monacemebis pirvelad wyaros.

WEO (World Economic Outlook) mier daTvlili wonebi warmoadgens pirvelad wyaros da

gamoiyeneba mxolod im mizniT rom SesaZlebeli iyos jgufSi Semavali qveynebis

Sesadarisoba. pirveladi informaciis wyaros warmoadgens agreTve ekonomikuri

TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizacia, msoflio banki, erovnuli ekonomikis

msoflio ekonomikuri prognozebi

166

dolaria. Tu gadavxedavT dinamikaSi qveynebis am klasifikacias, ZiriTadi

jgufebi da masSi Semavali qveynebis raodenoba SenarCunebulia, mxolod

ganxorcielda zogierTi struqturuli cvlilebebi, kerZod gaiumjobesa

monaceმeბi germaniis federaciulma respublikam, CexeTma, litvam,

estoneTma, SeumcirdaT maCvenebeli da ufro ukan daiwia saberZneTma,

ungreTma, latviam da a. S.

evrokavSirSi gamovlenili am tendenciebis fonze sainteresoa

saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtis 1 mosaxleze maCveneblis dinamikuri

mwkrivi da ra Tqma unda detalurad gawerili saprognozo maჩveneblebi. es

saSualebas mogvcems ganvsazRvroT SesaZlebelia Tu ara saqarTvelos

maCveneblis miaxloeba evrokavSirSi Semavali qveynebis Tundac yvelaze

dabal maCvenebelTan.

M1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis dinamikuri mwkrivi saqarTveloSi

(saerTaSoriso dilarSi) warmovadgineT Semdegi saxiT:

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3753,2 4239,5 4693,10 5420,6 5671,0 5494,2 5841,2 6342,5 6812,2 7155,9 7665,6

aRniSnuli maCveneblis droiTi mwkrivis trendi aris ZiriTadi

tendencia, romelic yalibdeba xangrZlivad moqmedi arsebiTi, anu ZiriTadi

faqtorebis zemoqmedebiT. rogorc wina paragrafSi aRvniSneT, movlenis

ganviTarebis saprognozo gaangariSebani sxvadasxva xerxebiT SeiZleba

ganxorcieldes. aqac arCevani SevaCereT prognozirebis saSualo absolutu-

ri matebis, saSualowliuri zrdis tempisa da wrfivi funqciis meTodebze.

Ppirvel rigSi gaviangariSeT saSualo absoluturi mateba Dda 1

sulze mSp-is saSualowliuri zrdis tempi Semdegi formulebis

safuZvelze:

391,23271

0

n

YYn 071,11

nYYYY

K

167

amis Semdeg movasworeT zemoTmotanili droiTi mwkrivis doneebi da

da gaviangariSeT saprognozo maCveneblebi momdevno aTi wlisaTvis,

Sedegebi warmovadgineT cxrilis saxiT:cxrili #27

cxrili #28

orive meTodiT mosworebuli da empiriuli doneebis mniSvnelobebis

erTmaneTis SevadarebiT aRmoCnda, rom maT Soris gadaxrebi umniSvneloa.

wlebi mosworebuli

doneebi

saSualo

absoluturi

matebiT

mosworebuli

doneebi

saSualo

wliuri

zrdis tempiT

wlebi mosworebuli

doneebi

saSualo

absoluturi

matebiT

mosworebuli

doneebi

saSualo

wliuri

zrdis

tempiT

2004 3753,25 3753.24 2010 6100,64 5664,27

2005 4144,48 4019,72 2011 6491,88 6066,44

2006 4535,71 4305,13 2012 6883,11 6497,15

2007 4926,95 4610,79 2013 7274,34 6958,45

2008 5318,18 4938,16 2014 7665,574 7452,50

2009 5709,41 5288,77

wlebi Pprognozi

saSualo

absoluturi

matebiT

Pprognozi

saSualo

wliuri zrdis

tempiT

wlebi Pprognozi

saSualo

absoluturi

matebiT

Pprognozi

saSualo

wliuri

zrdis

tempiT

2015 8056,81 7981.63 2020 10012,97 1129,2

2016 8448,04 8548,32 2021 10404,20 1209,4

2017 8839,27 9155,25 2022 10795,44 1295,27

2018 9230,52 9805,3 2023 11185.67 1387,23

2019 9621,74 1055,3 2024 11577,90 1485,72

168

Tumca ufro mcire gansxvaveba dafiqsirda saSualo absoluturi matebis

meTodiT mosworebisas, es ki imas niSnavs, rom mosworebis meTodi sworad

aris SerCeuli da miRebuli retrospeqtuli trendis safuZvelze

gaangariSebuli prognozuli maCveneblebis saimedoobis xarisxi maRalia.

dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebis ufro srulyofilia analitikuri xer-

xebi: prognozireba wrfivi, paraboluri, hiperboluri an maCvenebliani fun-

qciiT. radgan Cven SemTxvevaSi mwkrivis doneebi icvleba ariTmetikuli

progresiiT, amitom prognozirebisaTvis gamoviyeneT wrfivi funqcia:

taay 10 . normalur gantolebaTa sistemidan gaangariSebuli parametrebis

mniSvnelobebi iqnbeba:

4,573511

1,630890

ny

a da 360110

3960021

tty

a

2005-2014 wlebis mixedviT 1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis

mosworebisa da normalur gantolebaTa sistemis parametrebis

gaangariSebani ixileT danarTSi #6

saprognozo mniSvnelobebi warmovadgineT cxrilis saxiT:

cxrili #29

radgan Teoriuli doneebis empiriuli doneebisagan gadaxrebis kvadra-

tebis jami minimaluria saSualo absoluturi matebiT mosworebisas

wlebiPprognozi wrfivi

funqciiTwlebi

Pprognozi wrfivi

funqciiT

2015 7976,089 2020 9854,185

2016 8351,705 2021 10229,802

2017 8727,321 2022 10605,418

2018 9102,953 2023 10981.034

2019 9478,67 2024 11356,651

169

(gansxvaveba empiriuli doneebis jamsa da mosworebuli doneebis jams

Soris 285,56-ia,) da wrfivi funqciiT mosworebisas ( am dros maCveneblebi

erTmaneTs daemTxva., xolo saSualowliuri zrdis tempebis SemTxvevaSi

gansxvaveba aris 3534,45,) SeiZleba iTqvas, rom mosworebisaTvis yvelaze

zustia wrfivi funqciis da SedarebiT zusti saSualo absoluturi matebis

xerxi. aqedan gamomdinare, maT safuZvlze gaangariSebuli prognozebic

ufro saimedo iqneba. amasTan, Tu am prognozul maCvenebelTa saSualo

mniSvnelobebs gaviangariSebT igi saimedoobis xarisxis mixedviT ufro

misaRebi iqneba.

cxrili # 30

wlebi

saS. absoluturi

matebiT gaangariSebuli

saprognozo

maCveneblebi

wrfivi funqciiT

gaangariSebuli

saprognozo

maCveneblebi

saSualo

saprognozo

maCveneblebi

2015 8056,207 7895,37 7976,089

2016 8448,039 8255,37 8351,705

2017 8839,272 8615,37 8727,321

2018 9230, 505 8975,4 9102,953

2019 9621,737 9335,4 9478,67

2020 10012,970 9695,4 9854,185

2021 10404,203 10055,4 10229,802

2022 10795,436 10415,4 10605,418

2023 11186,668 10775,4 10981.034

2024 11577,901 11135,4 11356,651

maSasadame SegviZlia CavTvaloT, rom Cvens mier gakeTebuli

prognozebi Seesabameba 1 sulze mTliani Sida produqtis savaraudo

moculobas, Tu SenarCunebul iqna misi zrdis is tendencia, rasac amas

adgili hqonda 2004-2014 wlebSi. Ggamodis, rom am niSnis mixedviT

evrokavSiris qveynebTan miaxloeba cota Soreuli perspeqtivaa, magram nu

ganvewyobiT pesimisturad, radgan mSp-is moculobis matebis tempebi erT

mosaxleze saqarTvelos ufro maRali aqvs bulgareTan da TviT

170

germaniasTan SedarebiTac. ase magaliTad Tu 2014 wels bulgareTis

aRniSnuli maCveneblis matebis tempi wina welTan SedarebiT 3,6%-ia,

2013wels 2012 welTan SedarebiT 2,9%, xolo 2012 wels 2011 welTan

SedarebiT-3% dafiqsirda, saqarTvelosaTvis 2014 wels 7,12%-iani mateba

aRiniSna, (germaniaSic mxolod 3%-iani matebaa), 2013 wels 7,1% da 2012

wels-7,4%. amitom unda vivaraudoT, rom rogorc Sinagani, ise garegani

gaqtorebis gavleniT SesaZlebelia ekonomikis daCqarebuli zrdisa da

matebis tempebs velodoT, rac evrokavSirTan ekonomikuri integraciis

intensivobis gaZlierebasa da saqarTvelo 2020-is saprognozo maჩvenebelTan

miaxloebis winapirobas Seqmnis.

171

d a s k v n a

sadisertacio naSromSi dasmuli amocanebis Sesabamisad detalurad

aris ganxiluli saqarTveloSi evropis samezoblo politikis

ganxorcielebis etapebi, gaanalizebulia sagareo vaWrobis statistikis

saerTaSoriso meTodologia, ris safuZvelzec gamoyofilia sagareo

vaWrobis statistikuri aRricxvis ZiriTadi principebi da dadgenilia

sagareo vaWrobis aRricxvis zogadi da specialuri sitemebis msgavsebani

da gansxvavebani. dasabuTebulia saqarTveloSi zogadi sistemis gamoyenebis

mizanSewoniloba. gamomwvevi mizezebis CvenebiT Camoyalibebulia sagareo

vaWrobis statistikuri aRricxvis problemebi da SemuSavebulia

konkretuli winadadebebi maTi SesaZlo realizaciisaTvis, daxasiaTebulia

saqarTvelos sagareo valis statistikuri suraTi da gaanalizebulia

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis ZiriTadi raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis warmoebisas empiriuli monacemebi

garkveuli cdomilebiT xasiaTdebian, radgan sagareo savaWro operaciebis

nawili aRuricxavi rCeba. es ki imas niSnavs, rom registrirebuli eqsport-

importis moculoba ar Seesabameba realuri nakadebis sidides, kerZod:

arasrulyofilad xdeba satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciaSi saqonlis

warmoSobis qveynis dafiqsireba; sagareo vaWrobis monacemTa bazebSi

ZiriTadad fiqsirdeba movaWre qveyana da ara saqonlis warmoSobis

qveyana.

ar xorcieldeba satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciaSi velis -

„satransporto saSualeba sazRvarze“ Sevseba; saqme isaa, rom 2010

wlidan deklaraciebis Sevsebaze droiTi SezRudvis dawesebis

Semdeg, aRniSnuli velis Sevseba nebayoflobiTi gaxda, ramac

gamoiwvia is, rom sagareo vaWrobis monacemebi transportis WrilSi

aRar muSavdeba.

Sss-is momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebSi ar xorcieldeba

importirebuli avtomobilebis Sesaxeb miaxloebiTi sabazro

Rirebulebis miTiTeba. es iwvevs garkveuli Seusabamobis

warmoSobas, radgan momsaxurebis saagentodan yovelTviurad

172

miRebul monacemTa bazebSi importirebuli, eqsportirebuli da

reeqsportirebuli satransporto saSualebebis Sesaxeb miTiTebulia

saqonlis miaxloebiTi sabazro Rirebuleba.

arasworad xdeba importirebuli avtomobilebisaTvis Sesabamisi

kodebis miniWeba; momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebSi

eqsportisa da reeqsportis SemTxvevaSi qveynis kodebis srulad

miniWeba ar xdeba. aRniSnuli velis Sevseba ki aucilebelia sagareo

vaWrobis statistikis warmoebisTvis qveynebis WrilSi.

arasrulyofilad xdeba gamartivebuli sabaJo deklaraciis Sevseba

qveynebis, 11-niSna doneze saqonlis kodebis, Rirebulebis miTiTebiT.

jer kidev problematuria sabaJo sawyobidan reeqsportis reJimiT

tvirTebis imave qveyanaSi gatanis aRricxvis sakiTxi;

aRricxvis TvalsazrisiT, garkveul problemebs qmnis is faqtic,

rom Tvis bazaSi zog deklaraciaSi ar aris miTiTebuli gamomgzavni

da saboloo daniSnulebis qveyana;

mouwesrigebelia saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis mier

specdaniSnulebis tvirTis deklarirebis sakiTxi;

garkveuli xarvezebi arsebobs 99050000000 kodiT deklarirebuli

tvirTebis aRricxvis sferoSi.

Pproblemebia sagareo vaWrobis fasebis indeqsebis agebis sakiTxSic.

saqme isaa, rom sagareo vaWrobis statistikis informacia

klasificirdeba sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo

nomenklaturis (HS 2012) mixedviT, xolo fasebis indeqsebis

gaangariSeba xdeba ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis (NACE)

Sesabamisad. aRsaniSnavia, rom klasifikatorebis Sesabamisi

detaluri konvertoris (HS-NACE) ar arseboba eqvsniSna doneze

produqciis mixedviT indeqsebis gaangariSebis saSualebas ar iZleva.

am etapze indeqsebis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba mxolod NACE–is 4-

niSna jgufebis doneze. MmigvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli problemis

mogvareba SesaZlebelia qarTul enaze klasifikatorebis

SemuSavebis Sedegad.

173

zemoaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, migvaCnia, rom saqstatis informaciuli

bazis srulyofasTvis aucilebelia ganxorcieldes sabaJo deklaraciebis

srulfasovani Sevseba, qveynebis, TerTmetniSna doneze saqonlis kodebis,

Rirebulebis miTiTebiT, satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciaSi saqonlis

warmoSobis qveynis srulyofilad dafiqsirebiT, saqarTvelos erovnuli

bankis mier specdaniSnulebis tvirTis zustad aRricxvis, diplomatiuri

tvirTebis aRricxvis srulyofis da sxv. safuZvelze, srulyofil iqnes

Sss-is momsaxurebis saagentos monacemTa bazebi, sagareo vaWrobis

saerTaSoriso meTodologiis rekomendaciebis srulad danergvis mizniT

moxdes biznes registrisa da sagareo vaWrobis monacemTa bazebis Sedareba

da urTierTdakavSireba, srulyofil iqnas eqsport-importis fasebis

informaciuli baza, ganxorcieldes eqvs niSna doneze produqciis mixedviT

indeqsebis gaangariSeba, rac klasifikatorebis Sesabamisi detaluri

konvertoris (HS-NACE) arsebobas moiTxovs.

am xarvezebis miuxedavad, saqstatSi arsebuli informaciuli bazis

safuZvelze gamovlenilia evrokavSiris qveynebTan saqarTvelos sagareo

vaWrobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi, aseve am urTierTobebis uaxloesi

tendenciebi geografiul da sasaqonlo struqturis WrilSi.

gansazRvrulia saqarTvelos msoflio ekonomikur sivrceSi integraciis

xarisxis koeficienti da statistikuri grZelvadiani prognozebis

safuZvelze gamovlenilia mosalodneli tendenciebi evrointegraciis

mimdinare procesebis fonze.

Mmiuxedavad imisa, rom 2008-2014 wlebSi saqarTveloSi sagareo vaWrobis

brunva 47%-iT gaizarda, eqsporti 2014 wels 2008 welTan SedarebiT 91,4%-

iT, xolo importi 36,0%-iT gaizarda, dRes saqarTvelos mTavar problemad

kvlav uaryofiTi savaWro balansi rCeba. vlindeba importis mkveTri zrdis

tendencia eqsportTan SedarebiT.

2008-2014 wlebSi saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva saSualod 6,7%-

iT gaizarda, magram aseve gaizarda savaWro deficiti. Mmarto 2014 wels

2008 welTan SedarebiT sagareo vaWrobis saldo 19,3%-iT gaizarda, romlis

saSualo wliurma zrdis tempma amave periodSi 102,9% Seadgina. Sesabamisad,

ar moxda eqsportis importiT gadafarvis koeficientis zrda. Tumca, amave

174

periodSi gafarTovda vaWrobis geografia da gaizarda savaWro partniori

qveynebis raodenoba, romelmac bolo monacemebiT 145 Seadgina. 2013 welTan

SedarebiT 40-dan 43-mde gaizarda im qveynebis ricxvi, romelTanac

saqarTvelos dadebiTi savaWro balansi aqvs, magram amasTan 94-dan 102-mde

gaizarda im qveynebis ricxvic, visTanac saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro

balansi aqvs. Aamave periodSi ZiriTadSi ar Secvlila eqsportis

sasaqonlo struqturac.

sagareo vaWrobis zrda ZiriTadad importis winmswrebi zrdis tempiTaa

ganpirobebuli. Bbolo monacemebiT, importi 3-jer aRemateba eqsports,

evrokavSiris qveynebTan ufro metი, TiTqmis 4-jer meti maCvenebeli

dafiqsirda. Mmcirdeba saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis uaryofiTi saldos

xvedriTi wili mTlian brunvaSi, rac 2014 wels 50%-s Seadgens,

evrokavSiris qveynebTan ki es maCvenebeli 58,5%-is doneze dafiqsirda.

eqsportis zrdis gamo 88 procentuli punqtiT gaumjobesda eqsportis

donis maCvenebeli, romelic 0,34-dan 0,64-mde, m.S. evrokavSirTan 0.076-dan

0,138-mde gaizarda. importis done ki 1,44-dan 1,91-mde da evrokavSirTan 0,40-

dan 0,52-mde gaizarda.

2014 wels saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvam evrokavSiris

qveynebTan 2990 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, aqedan, eqsporti 621 mln. aSS

dolari (20,8%) iyo, xolo importi 2369 mln. aSS dolari(79.2%).

saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvaSi am qveynebis wilma 26 procenti

Seadgina, maT Soris eqsportSi 22%da importSi 28%, evrokavSiris qveynebze

modioda savaWro deficitis 30 procenti.

2014 wels saqarTvelom savaWro operaciebi ganaxorciela evrokavSiris

28 qveyanasTan, saeqsporto urTierTobebi ar ganxorcielda mxolod

luqsemburgTan. saangariSo wlis ganmavlobaSi yvela qveyanasTan aRiniSna

uaryofiTi savaWro saldo 1 748 550 aTasi. aSS dolariT. brunvis yvelaze

maRali maCvenebliT gamoirCeva bulgareTi, italia, espaneTi, germania,

litva. rac Seexeba imports, aq upirobo lideria germania. Semdeg modis

rumineTi, italia, bulgareTi, niderlandebi da a.S.

evrokavSiris ZiriTadi top-aTeuli saeqsporto qveynebis wili mTel

eqsportSi 19,6%-s Seadgens, evrokavSirTan eqsportis 90%-s da evrokavSiris

175

qveynebTan savaWro brunvis 18,7%-s Seadgens (mTliani savaWro brunvis

4,9%).D

evrokavSiris qveynebTan ZiriTad saeqsporto produqcias warmoadgens

spilenZis madnebi da koncentratebi, kakali axali an gamxmari, yurZnis

naturaluri Rvinoebi, mineraluri da mtknari wylebi, feroSenadnobebi da

a.S. 2014 wels saimporto produqciaSi sWarbobda navTobi da

navTobproduqtebi, samkurnalo saSualebebi, msubuqi avtomobilebi,

xorbali da meslini, sigarebi, sigarilebi da sigaretebi Tambaqos an misi

Semcvlelebisagan da sxv.

ZiriTadi saimporto qveynebis AaTeuls evrokaSiris qveynebidan

liderobs Ggermania, romlis wili evrokavSirTan mTeli eqsportis 19,7%-s

Seadgens, Semdeg modian rumineTi da italia, Sesabamisad 13,1% da 9,4%-iani

wiliT. saerTod, am topaTeuli qveynebis wili mTlian importSi 20,4%-ia,

maTi wili evrokavSirTan importSi 74%-s Seadgens, rac mTliani sagareo

vaWrobis brunvis 15,3%, xolo evrokavSiris qveynebTan sagareo vaWrobis

brunvis 58,7%-s Seadgens.

amrigad, evrokavSiri saqarTvelos erT-erT saimedo partniorad

gvevlineba, romelTanac ormxrivi vaWroba sakmaod dinamiurad viTardeba da

ufro gaZlierdeba evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris Rrma da

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis formirebis Sedegad. mas

udidesi mniSvneloba gaaCnia, vinaidan is xels Seuwyobs qarTuli

eqsportis zrdas, qarTuli produqciis xarisxis gaumjobesebas,

evrokavSiris bazarTan Tavsebadi savaWro sistemis formirebas, rasac

TavisTavad moyveba sainvesticio garemos mimzidvelobis gazrda.Ees ki

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Semodinebas Seuwyobs xels, romlis

Sedegadac Seiqmneba axali samuSao adgilebi. yovelive zemoTaRniSnuli

saqarTvelos ekonomikis zrdis stimulirebasa da zogadad, saqarTvelos

ekonomikur ganviTarebas Seuwyobs xels.

saqarTvelos msoflio ekonomikaSi integraciuli procesebis xarisxis

Sesafaseblad Cvens mier srulyofili iqna gazomvisaTvis arsebuli

meTodologia maCvenebelTa sistemaSi damatebiTi indikatoris Setanis

xarjze. Koeficientma, romelic daaxloebiT 20%-ia, AaCvena integraciis

176

dabali done, rac imas niSnavs rom 2008-2014 wlebSi saqarTvelom moaxdina

Tavisi sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis mxolod 20 %-is realizacia.

aseTi viTarebis fonze movaxdineT sagareo vaWrobis ZiriTadi

maCveneblebis prognozebis gaangariSeba, raTa gagvesazRvra saeqsporto da

saimporto nakadebis cvlilebis mosalodneli molodinebi da eqsportsa da

importSi evrokavSiris qveynebis wilis maCveneblebi. prognozirebis

meTodebidan gamoviyeneT saSualo absoluturi matebis, saSualo wliuri

zrdis tempisa da wrfivi funqciiT mosworebisa da prognozirebis

meTodebi. rogorc gaangariSebebidan gamoikveTa, xSir SemTxvevaSi ufro

zusti aRmoCnda wrfivi funqcia da mis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli

maCveneblebi ki ufro saimedo. saqme imaSia, rom SedarebiT rTuli,

magaliTad, ARIMA-s tipis modelebi swrafad kargaven prognozirebis

unars, Tumca maTi gamoyeneba mizanSewonilia rTuli procesebis

prognozirebisaTvis moklevadian perspeqtivaSi. Ggamoyenebuli meTodebi

aris prognozirebis is pasiuri meTodebi, romelic emyareba im daSvebas,

rom momavalSi unda iyos warsulis msgavsi tendenciebi. aseTi prognozis

aradamakmayofilebloba miuTiTebs swored aqtiuri prognozirebis

aucileblobaze, anu imaze, rom daisaxos konkretuli, praqtikuli

RonisZiebebi, romelic gardatexas Seitans arasasurvel tendenciebSi,

romelic gamoavlina pasiurma prognozirebam. aqtiuri prognozirebis

instrumentebs Soris gansakuTrebiT efeqturad iTvleba e. w. scenarebis

meTodi, romlis arsic swored konkretuli RonisZiebebis dagegmvaSi

mdgomareobs.

Pprognozis mixedviT momavali 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi, evrokavSiris

qveynebTan rogorc eqsportis ise importis SemTxvevaSi unda velodoT

sistematuri zrdis tendencias, kerZod 2024 wlisaTvis eqsporti 48,4 %-iT

gadaaWarbebs 2014 wlis dones. importis SemTxvevaSi ki zrdis tempebi

gacilebiT maRali iqneba, radgan 2024 wels 2014 welTan SedarebiT, importi

evrokavSiridan (prognozis mixedviT) 80,9%-iT gaizrdeba. Ees ki imas

niSnavs, rom importis zrdis miRebuli prognozuli Sefasebebi metismetad

pesimistur suraTs ayalibebs (misi metismetad maRali zrdis tempebis gamo).

gamodis, rom saqarTvelos mTavar problemad kvlav uaryofiTi savaWro

balansi darCeba. miuxedavad imisa, rom importis paralelurad SeiniSneba

177

eqsportis zrdis tendenciac, mainc gacilebiT dabalia eqsportis zrdis

tempebi. Pprognozis mixedviT importi 4,7-jer gadaaWarbebs eqsports. isev

ar unda velodoT eqsportiT importis gadafarvis koeficientis gazrdas.

aqedan gamomdinare, daskvna aseTia: saqarTvelos mTavrobis winaSe dgas da

idgeba mniSvnelovani gamowveva: SeimuSaos qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebis

optimaluri gegma, yovelmxriv Seuwyos xeli samamulo warmoebis

aRorZinebas, raTa ar dauSvas aseTi prognozis realizacia.

am arcTu optimaluri prognozis pirobebSi, ikveTeba eqsportsa da

importSi evrokavSiris qveynebis wilis gazrdis molodinic: Tu SenarCunda

sakvlev periodSi dakavebuli wilis cvlilebis tendencia, maSin

evrokavSiris wili eqsportSi saprognozo periodSi, anu 2020-2024 wlebSi

25%-is doneze SenarCundeba, xolo importSi 33%-mde gaizrdeba. Aaq

gasaTvaliswinebelia msoflios qveynebis sxvadasxva dajgufebebis (suamis,

dsT-s wevri qveynebis, amerikis, aziis) saqarTvelosTan sagareo vaWrobis

mzardi tendenciebi, rac cxadia, gavlenas iqoniebs evrokavSirTan savaWro

urTierTobebis maCveneblebzec. Mmagram imedi unda viqonioT, rom

saqarTvelos ekonomikis zrdis paralelurad, evrokavSirTan Rrma da

yovlismomcveli savaWro sivrcis SeTanxmebis srulad amoqmedebis Semdeg

evrostandartebis sruli dacvis pirobebSi, saqarTveloSi warmoebuli

produqcia mimzidveli gaxdeba evrokavSiris Sida bazrisaTvis, gaizrdeba

eqsporti da gaRrmavdeba saqarTvelos evropasTan ekonomikuri integracia,

riskenac ase miiswrafis dRes Cveni qveyana.

radgan statistikuri prognozirebisas metad mniSvnelovania miRebuli

prognozebis xarisxis Sefaseba. Aamitom mirebuli Aprognozebis sizustis

gansazRvra movaxdineT g. teilis gansxavebis (Seusabamobis) koeficientis

safuZvelze, romelic evrokavSiris qveynebSi saqarTvelos eqsportisaTvis,

0,22-is, xolo importisaTvis 0,35 toli aRmoCnda, rac prognozebis sizustis

sakmaod maRal doneze miuTiTebs. amitom SegviZlia vTqvaT rom Cvens mier

gaangariSebuli saprognozo maCveneblebi saimedoa.

cnobilia, evrokavSirSi gaerTianeba garkveuli kriteriumebis

dakmayofilebas moiTxovs, rac evropuli konvergentuli kriteriumebis

saxeliTaa cnobili, amitom, Cvens mier gaanalizebul iqna saqarTvelos am

178

kriteriumebTan miaxloebis molodinebi da gansazRvrul iqna Sesrulebadi

realuri indikatorebi.

marTalia, saqarTveloSi fiqsirdeba 1 sulze mSp-is sistematuri zrdis

tendencia, magram maastrixtis xelSekrulebis mTavar indikatorTan

miaxloeba da pirveli konvergentuli kriteriumis Sesruldeba

saqarTveloSi savaraudoT ar ganxorcieldeba.

saqarTelos erovnuli bankis monacemebiT, mTliani saxelmwifo valis

wili mSp-Si 35,5 procentia, xolo sagareo valis wili 26,8 %-ia.

saqarTvelo mTliani sagareo vali 2013 wlamde zrdadi tendenciiT

xasiaTdeboda da misma moculobam 2013 wlis bolos istoriul maqsimums -

13,6 miliard dolars (mSp-s 88,3%-s miaRwia). 2014 wels misi moculoba

Semcirebulia, magram savaluto kursis cvlilebis gamo, larSi

saxelmwofo valis moculoba 2014 wels gazrdilia. Aamave periodSi

samTavrobo seqtoris sagareo valma 4250 milion dolars miaRwia, rac 2012

wlis maCvenebels 4 mln dolariT aRemateba. erovnuli bankis maCvenebeli

am periodSi 252 milion dolaramde (230 mln lariT) Semcirda. saxelmwifo

seqtoris vali mSp-s 40%-ze naklebi rCeba. komerciuli bankebis valebi

gaizarda 200 mln dolariT, sxva seqtorebis valebi gaizarda daaxloebiT

100 mln dolariT.

saxelmwifo sagareo valis naSTi 2015 wlis 30 aprilis mdgomareobiT 4

040 051 aTasi aSS dolaria, xolo mTavrobis sagareo vali - 4010516 aTasi

aSS dolari.

„saqarTvelo 2020”-is strategiis mixedviT, 2020 wlisaTvis sagareo

valis wili mSp-Si 40%-s miuaxlovdeba. Ees ki imas niSnavs, rom am

kriteriumis mixedviT, qveyana didi albaTobiT daakmayofilebs

evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis maastrixtis xelSekrulebis pirobas, romlis

Tanaxmadac sagareo valis wili mSp-Si ar unda aWarbebdes 60%-s.

winaswari monacemebiT, saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis moculobam 2014 wels 1 272 mln. aSS dolari

Seadgina, rac 35 procentiT aRemateba 2013 wlis monacemebs. yvelaze meti

pirdapiri ucxouri investicia transportsa da kavSirgabmulobaSi

ganxorcielda da 343 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, rac mTliani pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis 27 procentia. meore adgilze imyofeba mSenebloba -

179

295 mln. aSS dolariT, xolo mesameze - damamuSavebeli mrewveloba - 174

mln. aSS dolariT. 2014 wlis monacemebis mixedviT, investori qveynebis

aTeuls liderobs niderlandebi (2013 welsac lideri niderlandebi iyo),

saidanac 331,2 mln dolaris moculobis investicia ganxorcielda, xolo

meore da mesame pozicias Sesabamisad azerbaijani - 302,1 mln-iT da CineTi -

194,9 mln dolariT ikaveben. 2012 wels top-aTeuls liderobda

gaerTianebuli samefo, 2010 wels ki aSS. rogorc mosalodneli iyo,

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis didi nawili ZiriTadad Tbilissa da

aWaraSi ganxorcielda, xolo Semdeg - kaxeTsa da samegreloSi.

evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis erT-erTi pirobaa umuSevrobis donis

araumetes 10%-is farglebSi meryeoba. es sakiTxi saqarTvelosTvis erT-erT

mtkivneul da mougvarebel problemad rCeba. qveyanaSi jer kidev maRalia

umuSevrobis done, romelic bolo monacemebiT, 12,4%-is donezea. marTalia

,,saqarTvelo 2020”-is mixedviT umuSevrobis done 2020 wels 12%-ian zRvars

miuaxlovdeba, rac imas niSnavs, rom evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis am pirobas

saqarTvelo uaxloes wlebSi samwuxarod ver Seasrulebs.

strategia 2020 wlisaTvis inflaciis 3%-iani saprognozo maCveneblis

miRwevas isaxavs miznad. samomxmareblo fasebis wliurma zrdam 2%

Seadgina, xolo 2015 wlis maisis maCvenebelma ki 3,5%. Mmiznobrivi

prognozis mixedviT, inflacia 5%-iani miznobrivi niSnulis dabla

SenarCundeba 2015 wlis pirvel naxevarSi da mas wlis meore naxevarSi

miaRwevs. amrigad, moTxovna, rom inflaciis done unda fiqsirdebodes erT-

niSna cifris doneze, realizebadia.

Dbolo piroba, rac aucilebelia, rom Sesruldes evrokavSirSi

gaerTianebisaTvis aris is, rom naerTi biujetis deficiti ar unda

aWarbebdes mTliani Sida produqtis 3%-s. saqarTveloSi es maCvenebeli

zustad am sididis zRvarzea, radgan GFSM-is mixedviT 3,2%-is donezea,

amitom am mxrivac wayenebuli piroba Sesrulebadia.

radgan qveynis ekonomikis funqcionirebis Sedegebis mTavar

makroekonomikur maCvenebels mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) warmoadgens da

misi moculoba erT mosaxleze qveynebis reitinguli klasifikaciis erT-

erTi mTavari saklasifikacio niSania, amitomA is gamoviyeneT evrokavSiris

qveynebis dajgufebisaTvis da saqarTvelosaTvis 2004-2014 wlebis mixedviT

180

Sedgenili droiTi mwkrivis safuZvelze gaviangariSeT 1 mosaxleze mSp-is

saprognozo maCveneblebi. Aradgan ekonomikuri procesebis prognozirebisas

aucilebelia erTi da imave droiTi mwkrivis doneebis sxvadasxva

meTodebiT prognozireba, amitom mSp-is saprognozo maCveneblebis

Sedarebisa da saimedoobis maRali xarisxis uzrunvelsayofad movaxdineT

mSp-s dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworeba da prognozireba saSualo

absoluturi matebis, saSualo wliuri zrdis tempisa da wrfivi funqciis

safuZvelze. Aam SemTxvevaSic ufro zusti wrfivi funqcia da ufro

saimedo mis safuzvelze gangariSebuli prognozebi aRmoCnda.Pprognozis

mixedviT 1 mosaxleze mSp-is moculobis mixedviT evrokavSiris qveynebTan

miaxloeba cota Soreuli perspeqtivaa, Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom erT

mosaxleze mSp-is matebis tempebi saqarTvelos ufro maRali aqvs

bulgareTTan da TviT germaniasTan SedarebiTac, ase magaliTad, jaWvuri

meTodiT gaangariSebuli matebis tempebi cxadyofs, rom Tu 2014 wels

bulgareTis aRniSnuli maCveneblis matebis tempi 3,6%-ia, 2013 wels 2012

welTan SedarebiT 2,9%, xolo 2012 wels 2011 welTan SedarebiT 3%

dafiqsirda, saqarTvelosaTvis 2014 wels 7,1%-iani mateba aRiniSna, 2013

wels - 7,1% da 2012 wels - 7,4%. amitom unda vivaraudoT, rom rogorc

Sinagani, ise garegani faqtorebis gavleniT SesaZlebelia ekonomikis

daCqarebuli zrdisa da matebis tempebs velodoT, rac evrokavSirTan

ekonomikuri integraciis intensivobis gaZlierebasa da Rrma da

yovlismomcvel savaWro sivrceSi srulyofil integracias gamoiwvevs.

cxadia, didi mniSvneloba aqvs statistikis organizebulobis xarisxis

amaRlebas, rac mkveTrad gaaumjobesebs statistikuri informaciis xarisxsa

da saimedoobas; es ki TavisTavad ganapirobebs sagareo savaWro

urTierTobebSi Camoyalibebuli realuri tendenciebis gamovlenas, mis

bazaze ki saimedo prognozebisa da adekvaturi daskvnebis Camoyalibebas. es

ki niSnavs, rom Seiqmneba mniSvnelovani winapirobebi swori sagareo

ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis, rac xels Seuwyobs qveynis

Rirseul integracias msoflio ekonomikur sivrceSi.

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191

danarTi #1

reeqsporti evrokavSiris qveynebSi

(aTasi aSS dolari)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

bulgareTi 304.1 216.0 174.6 263.9 451.6 69521.472,808.

1

espaneTi 123.5 305.7 219.1 509.4 826.9 34247.7 37749.6

belgia 5,724.9 11957.0 1939.9 17038.8 5408.7 54010.8 32085.7Niderlandebi 4396.4 3,161.8 4551.1 5185.7 4745.6 14005.7 21700.6

germania 275.6 230.9 55.8 3256.3 3,697.3 4565.1 10484.9

192

danarTi #2

eqsportis, importis, saldos, brunvis donisa da importis-eqsportisTanafardobis maCvenebelis, agreTve sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobismaCveneblebis gaangariSeba 2014 2008 wlis moxedviT

1. 2014 wlis eqsportis done, maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

64,0490.542861

k 138,0490.54620,8

EUk

2008 wlis eqsportis done, maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan

34,01,3824

1495k 076,0

1,4382335,1

EUk

2. 2014 wlis importis done, m.S. evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

91,1490.54

8596k 52,0

490.542369,4

EUk

2008 wlis importis done, maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan

44,14382,1

6302k 40,0

1,38241764,3

EUk

3. saldos done, m.S. evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

27,1490.545735-

k 389,0490.54

1748,5-EUk

2008 wlis saldos done, m.S. evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

B 10,14382,1

4806-k 39,0

382,141730,8-

EUk

4. 2014 wlis brunvis done, maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

55,24490,511457

k 6659,0490.54

2990,2EUk

2008 wlis brunvis done, maT Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

193

78,144382,1

7797k 48,0

382,142099,4

EUk

5. 2014 wlis importis-eqsportis Tanafardobis maCvenebeli, maT

Soris evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

00,328618596

k 82,3,8620,

2369,4EUk

2008 wlis importis-eqsportis Tanafardobis maCvenebeli, maT Soris

evrokavSiris qveynebTan:

21,414956302

k 3,5335,2

1764,3EUk

6. 2014 wlis sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi ki Seadgens:

%5010011457

5735-k %5,58100

2990,21748,5-

EUk

2008 wlis sagareo vaWrobis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi:

%6,611007797

4805

k %4,82100

2099,41730,8,-

EUk

194

danarTi 3

partniori qveynebis raodenoba saqarTvelos savaWro operaciebSi

Bbrunva Eeqsporti importidadebiTi

saldo

uaryofiTi

saldo

2000 110 87 92 31 73

2001 114 81 104 26 81

2002 125 86 111 31 84

2003 124 83 112 30 86

2004 125 80 118 19 94

2005 131 94 120 28 93

2006 132 100 120 26 97

2007 123 95 114 23 93

2008 130 94 126 21 100

2009 131 102 121 28 92

2010 138 106 128 31 96

2011 147 107 135 29 102

2012 148 114 128 47 101

2013 134 111 122 40 94

2014 145 122 129 43 102

195

danarTi #4

eqsporti evrokavSiris qveynebSi (aTasi aSS dolari)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014bulgareTi 108,216.7 82,290.6 66,757.2 93,689.0 69,654.7 150,753.8 164,090.2

italia 17,144.9 23,282.1 26,048.4 75,501.4 53,330.1 81,489.0 86,193.1

espaneTi 19,667.7 15,313.9 32,709.2 23,693.0 15,852.5 66,865.8 70,314.1

germania 33,062.6 23,025.4 34,987.7 49,056.5 38,571.8 72,996.2 69,141.6

belgia 7,190.8 13,519.5 22,074.6 33,647.9 60,446.5 61,479.8 41,675.4

litva 8,763.2 9,884.8 11,256.1 18,525.5 19,030.7 21,772.3 31,764.0niderlandebi 12,652.5 9,019.6 17,833.1 17,667.0 11,746.6 22,543.9 31,168.8safrangeTi 39,910.1 5,817.3 10,923.7 27,754.1 17,163.9 33,872.9 26,813.0gaerTianebulisamefo 43,576.6 8,186.2 18,199.2 13,842.6 20,850.8 30,067.5 24,671.2

CexeTi 4,349.9 7,093.1 8,056.5 9,428.2 9,852.8 14,587.1 14,165.3

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