iv.e greenhouse gas emissions - los...

CityofLosAngeles 10000SantaMonicaBoulevardPCRServicesCorporation/SCHNo.2011041042 IV.E‐1

IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS E. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

1. INTRODUCTION

This section describes applicable Federal, State, and local regulations that address greenhouse gas (GHG)emissionsandglobal climatechange inCaliforniaand theLosAngeles region. Existingclimateconditionsandinfluencesonglobalclimatechangearealsodescribed,andananalysis isprovidedtoassesspotentialcumulativeandprojectrelatedcontributionstoglobalclimatechange.TheanalysisaccountsforenergyandresourceconservationmeasuresthathavebeenincorporatedintotheproposedprojectandpertinentStatemandatedGHGemissionreductionmeasures.GHGemissioncalculationspreparedfortheproposedprojectareprovidedinAppendixB.4

2. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

a. Federal Regulations

In2007,theUSSupremeCourtruledinMassachusettsv.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencythatGHGsareairpollutantscoveredundertheCleanAirAct(CAA). SincetheEPAisresponsibleforoverseeingcompliancewiththeCleanAirAct,emissionsofGHGsfallunderthejurisdictionoftheEPA,whichisthereforeobligatedto regulate them. As of January 2, 2011, the EPA requires GHG analyses to be performed as part ofpermittingrequirementsforprojectswhicharecurrentlyundergoingthepermittingprocess.

On April 23, 2009, EPA published its Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings forGreenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act (Endangerment Finding) in the Federal Register. TheEndangermentFindingisbasedonSection202(a)oftheCleanAirAct,whichstatesthattheAdministrator(ofEPA)shouldregulateanddevelopstandardsfor“emission[s]ofairpollutionfromanyclassorclassesofnew motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which in [its] judgment cause, or contribute to, airpollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.” The proposed ruleaddressesSection202(a)intwodistinctfindings.ThefirstaddresseswhetherornottheconcentrationsofthesixkeyGHGs(i.e.,CO2,CH4,N2O,HFCs,perflurorocarbons[PFCs],andSF6)intheatmospherethreatenthepublichealthandwelfareofcurrentandfuturegenerations. ThesecondaddresseswhetherornotthecombinedemissionsofGHGsfromnewmotorvehiclesandmotorvehicleenginescontributetoatmosphericconcentrationsofGHGsandthereforethethreatofclimatechange.

TheAdministratorproposedthefindingthatatmosphericconcentrationsofGHGsendangerthepublichealthandwelfarewithinthemeaningofSection202(a)oftheCCA.Theevidencesupportingthisfindingconsistsofhumanactivityresultingin“highatmosphericlevels”ofGHGemissions,whichareverylikelyresponsibleforincreasesinaveragetemperaturesandotherclimaticchanges.Furthermore,theobservedandprojectedresults of climate change (e.g., higher likelihood of heat waves, wildfires, droughts, sea level rise, higherintensitystorms)areathreattothepublichealthandwelfare.Therefore,GHGswerefoundtoendangerthepublichealthandwelfareofcurrentandfuturegenerations.

IV.E. Greenhouse Gas Emissions September 2011


TheAdministratoralsoproposedthefindingthatGHGemissionsfromnewmotorvehiclesandmotorvehicleengines are contributing to air pollution,which is endangering public health andwelfare. The proposedfindingcites that in2006,motorvehicleswere the second largest contributor todomesticGHGemissions(24%of total)behindelectricitygeneration. Furthermore, in2005, theUnitedStateswas responsible for18%of globalGHG emissions. Therefore, GHG emissions frommotor vehicles andmotor vehicle engineswerefoundtocontributetoairpollutionthatendangerspublichealthandwelfare.

OnMay19,2009,PresidentObamaannouncedanewFederalpolicy“aimedatbothincreasingfueleconomyandreducingGHGpollutionforallnewcarsandtruckssoldintheUnitedStates.”Thepolicyproposedfuelefficiency standards that apply to model years 2012 through 2016. These standards will result in areduction of approximately 900 million metric tons of GHG. The new National Fuel Efficiency Policy isexpectedto increasefueleconomybymorethan5percentbyrequiringa fleet‐wideaverageof35.5milespergallonby2016startingwithmodelyears2012.

b. State Regulations

In response togrowing scientific andpolitical concern regardingglobal climate change, in the lastdecadeCaliforniahaspromulgateda series of executiveorders, laws, and regulationsaimedat reducingboth thelevelofGHGs in theatmosphereandemissionsofGHGs fromcommercialandprivateactivitieswithin theState.

In September 2002, Governor Gray Davis signed Assembly Bill (AB) 1493 (Pavley), requiring thedevelopmentandadoptionofregulationstoachieve“themaximumfeasiblereductionofgreenhousegases”emitted by noncommercial passenger vehicles, light‐duty trucks, and other vehicles used primarily forpersonal transportation intheState. Itshouldbenotedthatsettingemissionstandardsonautomobiles issolely the responsibility of the Federal EPA. The Federal CleanAir Act allows States to set state‐specificemission standards on automobiles if they first obtain awaiver from theU.S. EPA. TheU.S. EPA initiallydeniedCalifornia’srequestforawaiver,thusdelayingtheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard’s(CARB)proposedimplementation schedule for setting emission standards on automobiles to help reduce GHGs. After thechange in presidential administrations in 2009, however, EPAwas directed to reexamine its position fordenialofCalifornia’sCleanAirActwaiverandforitspastoppositiontoGHGemissionsregulation.Californiareceived the waiver on June 30, 2009. A comparison between the AB 1493 standards and the FederalCorporateAverageFuelEconomywascompletedbytheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardandisavailableathttp://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccms/ab1493_v_cafe_study.pdf.

In June2005,GovernorSchwarzeneggersignedExecutiveOrderS‐3‐05,whichproclaims thatCalifornia isvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.ItdeclaresthatincreasedtemperaturescouldreducetheSierraNevada snowpack, further exacerbateCalifornia’s airqualityproblems, andpotentially cause a rise in sealevel. Tocombatthoseconcerns, theExecutiveOrderestablishedtotalGHGemissiontargets. Specifically,emissionsaretobereducedtothe2000levelby2010,the1990levelby2020,andto80%belowthe1990level by 2050. The order directed the Secretary for the California EPA to report every two years on theState’sprogresstowardmeetingtheGovernor’sGHGemissionreductiontargets.AsaresultofthisExecutiveOrder,theCaliforniaClimateActionTeam(CAT),ledbytheSecretaryoftheCaliforniaEPA,wasformed.TheCAT ismadeupof representatives fromanumberof State agencies andwas formed to implementglobalwarmingemissionreductionprogramsandreportontheprogressmadetowardmeetingstatewidetargetsestablished under the Executive Order. State agencymembers include the Business, Transportation and

September 2011 IV.E. Greenhouse Gas Emissions


HousingAgency;Department of Food andAgriculture;ResourcesAgency;AirResourcesBoard; CaliforniaEnergy Commission; the Public Utilities Commission; and Department of Water Resources. The CATpublisheditsClimateActionTeamReporttoGovernorSchwarzeneggerandtheLegislatureinMarch2006,inwhich it laidout46specificemissionreductionstrategies forreducingGHGemissionsandreachingthetargetsestablishedintheExecutiveOrder.

InSeptember2006,GovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggersignedtheCaliforniaGlobalWarmingSolutionsActof2006,alsoknownasAB32,intolaw.AB32enactsintolegislationsome,butnotall,ofthe2005ExecutiveOrdertargetsnotedabove.Inparticular,itcommitstheStatetoachievingthefollowing:

2000GHGemission levelsby2010,whichrepresentsanapproximately11percentreduction fromemissionsastheresultof“businessasusual”(BAU);and

1990levelsby2020,whichrepresentsapproximately28.4percentbelowBAU.1

Toachievethesegoals,AB32mandatesthatCARBestablishaquantifiedemissionscap,instituteascheduletoachievethecap,implementregulationstoreducestatewideGHGemissionsfromstationarysources,anddevelop tracking, reporting, and enforcement mechanisms to ensure that reductions are achieved. ThefollowingscheduleoutlinestheCARBactionsmandatedbyAB32:

ByJanuary1,2008,CARBadoptsregulationsformandatoryGHGemissionsreporting,defines1990emissionsbaseline forCalifornia (including emissions from importedpower), and adopts it as the2020statewidecap. The2020emissionscapwassetat427millionmetric tonsofcarbondioxideequivalents(MMTCO2e).

ByJanuary1,2009,CARBadoptsplantoeffectGHGreductionsfromsignificantsourcesofGHGviaregulations,marketmechanismsandotheractions.2

During2009,CARBdraftsrulelanguagetoimplementitsplanandholdsaseriesofpublicworkshoponeachmeasure(includingmarketmechanisms).

ByJanuary1,2010,earlyactionmeasureswilltakeeffect.

During2010,CARB,afterworkshopsandpublichearings, conducts seriesof rulemakings toadoptGHGregulationsincludingrulesgoverningmarketmechanisms.

By January 1, 2011, CARB completes major rulemakings for reducing GHGs, including marketmechanisms.CARBmayreviseandadoptnewrulesafterJanuary1,2011toachievethe2020goal.

By January 1, 2012, GHG rules andmarketmechanisms adopted by CARB take effect and becomelegallyenforceable.

December31,2020isthedeadlineforachieving2020GHGemissionscap.

CARB’s listofdiscrete early actionmeasures tobeadoptedand implementedbefore January1,2010wasapprovedon June21, 2007, and focused onmajor State‐wide contributing sources and industries, not on

1 TheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoarddefines“business‐as‐usual”asemissionsintheabsenceofanygreenhousegasreductionmeasures

discussedintheClimateChangeScopingPlan.2 CARBreleased theClimateChangeProposedScopingPlan inOctober2008,whichdetails thestrategies that theStatewilluse to

reduceGHGemissions.ThePlanwasapprovedattheBoardhearinginDecember2008.



individualdevelopmentprojectsorpractices. Theseearlyactionmeasuresincluded:(1)a low‐carbonfuelstandard;(2)reductionofrefrigerant losses frommotorvehicleairconditioningsystemmaintenance;and(3)increasedmethanecapturefromlandfills.

Recently,CARBreleasedemissionsinventoryestimatesfor2000through2008.3Theinventoryshowsthatasof2008,transportationwasthelargestsinglesectorgeneratingcarbondioxide,responsiblefor37percentofthe state’s total emissions, largely (73 percent) from passenger vehicles. Transportation is followed byindustrialemissions,19percent;importedelectricity,13percent;in‐stateelectricitygeneration,12percent;residentialuse,6percent;agriculture,6percent;andcommercialuses,3percent.Statewideemissionsasawhole,andnotindividualsectors,arerequiredunderAB32tomeetthe2020emissionscap.

AcompanionbilltoAB32,SenateBill(SB)1368,requirestheCaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommission(PUC)and California Energy Commission (CEC) to establish GHG emission performance standards for thegenerationof electricity. These standardswill alsogenerallyapply topowergeneratedoutsideCaliforniaand imported into the State. SB 1368 provides a mechanism for reducing the emissions of electricityproviders, thereby assisting CARB inmeeting itsmandate under AB 32. On January 25, 2007, the CPUCadopted an interim GHG Emissions Performance Standard (EPS), which is a facility‐based emissionsstandardrequiringallnewlong‐termcommitmentsforbaseloadgenerationtoserveCaliforniaconsumerstobegrantedonly topowerplantswithGHGemissionsnogreater thana combined cycle gas turbineplant.Thatlevelisestablishedat1,100poundsofcarbondioxide(CO2)permegawatt‐hour(MW/hr).Further,onMay23,2007,theCECadoptedregulationsthatestablishandimplementanidenticalEPSof1,100poundsofCO2perMW/hr(seeCECorderNo.07‐523‐7).

AnadditionalbillrelatedtoAB32,SB97wasadoptedinAugust2007andrequirestheCaliforniaOfficeofPlanningandResearch(OPR)toprepare,develop,andtransmittotheResourcesAgencyguidelinesforthefeasiblemitigationofGHGemissionsortheeffectsofGHGemissions,asrequiredbyCEQA,includingbutnotlimitedto,effectsassociatedwithtransportationorenergyconsumption.OPRtransmittedtheseguidelinesbytheJuly1,2009deadline,theResourcesAgencycertifiedandadoptedtheguidelinespriortotheJanuary1,2010deadline,andtheguidelineswentintoeffectinMarch2010.TheResourcesAgencywillberequiredto periodically update the guidelines to incorporate new information or criteria established by the CARBpursuant to AB32.4 OPR does not identify a threshold of significance for GHG emissions, nor has itprescribed assessmentmethodologies or specificmitigationmeasures. The amendments encourage leadagencies to considermany factorswhenperforming aCEQA analysis, butpreserve thediscretion grantedunder CEQA to lead agencies to make their own determinations based on substantial evidence. Theamendments alsoencouragepublic agencies tomakeuseof tieringofprogrammaticmitigationplansandprogramswhenperformingindividualprojectanalyses.

Executive Order S‐1‐07, which was signed by Governor Schwarzenegger in 2007, proclaims that thetransportationsectoristhemainsourceofGHGemissionsinCalifornia,atover40%ofstatewideemissions.ItestablishesagoalthatthecarbonintensityoftransportationfuelssoldinCaliforniashouldbereducedbyaminimumof10%by2020. ThisorderalsodirectedCARBtodetermine if thisLowCarbonFuelStandardcouldbeadoptedasadiscreteearlyactionmeasureaftermeetingthemandatesinAB32.CARBadoptedthe3 California Environmental Protection Agency, Air Resources Board, “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data ‐ 2000 to 2008,”

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm.2010.4 SenateBillNo.97,Chapter185,approvedbyGovernorSchwarzeneggerandfiledwiththeSecretaryofState,August24,2007.



Low Carbon Fuel Standard on April 23, 2009. The final regulation was approved by the Office ofAdministrativeLawandfiledwiththeSecretaryofStateonJanuary12,2010;theLowCarbonFuelStandardbecameeffectiveonthesameday.

The California Air Resources Board expects the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to achieve the minimum 10percentreductiongoal;however,manyoftheearlyactionitemsoutlinedintheClimateChangeScopingPlanwork in tandem with one another. To avoid the potential for double‐counting emission reductionsassociatedwithAssemblyBill1493(seediscussionabove), theClimateChangeScopingPlanhasmodifiedtheaggregatereductionexpectedfromtheLowCarbonFuelStandardto9.1percent.InaccordancewiththeClimateChangeScopingPlan,thisanalysisincorporatesthemodifiedreductionpotentialfortheLowCarbonFuelStandard.

SB 1078 (Chapter 516, Statutes of 2002) requires retail sellers of electricity, including investor‐ownedutilitiesandcommunitychoiceaggregators,toprovideatleast20%oftheirsupplyfromrenewablesourcesby 2017. SB 107 (Chapter 464, Statutes of 2006) changed the target date to 2010. In November 2008,Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S‐14‐08, which expands the state's Renewable EnergyStandard to 33% renewable power by 2020. Pursuant to Executive Order S‐21‐09, the California AirResourcesBoardalsowaspreparing regulations to supplement theRenewablesPortfolioStandardwithaRenewableEnergyStandardthatwillresultinatotalrenewableenergyrequirementforutilitiesof33%by2020.ButonApril12,2011,GovernorJerryBrownsignedSenateBill21toincreaseCalifornia’sRenewablesPortfolioStandard(RPS)to33percentby2020. Notably,unliketheprior20%RPS, thecurrent33%RPSappliesPubliclyOwnedUtilities,suchastheLosAngelesDepartmentofWater&Power.

InNovember2008,theCaliforniaBuildingStandardsCommissionestablishedtheCaliforniaGreenBuildingStandards Code (CALGreen) which sets performance standards for residential and nonresidentialdevelopmenttoreduceenvironmentalimpactsandencouragesustainableconstructionpractices.WhentheCALGreencodewentintoeffectin2009,compliancethrough2010wasvoluntary.AsofJanuary1,2011,theCALGreencode ismandatory forallnewbuildingsconstructed in theState. TheCalGreencodeaddressesenergy efficiency, water conservation, material conservation, planning and design, and overallenvironmentalquality.5

c. Regional Regulations

TherehasalsobeenCalifornialegislativeactivityacknowledgingtherelationshipbetweenlanduseplanningandtransportationsectorGHGemissions. CaliforniaSenateBill375,signedonSeptember30,2008,alignsregionaltransportationplanningefforts,regionalGHGemissionreductiontargets,andlanduseandhousingallocation. SB 375 requires Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to adopt a SustainableCommunitiesStrategy(SCS)orAlternativePlanningStrategy(APS),whichwillprescribelanduseallocationin that MPO’s Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). CARB, in consultation with MPOs, will provide eachaffectedregionwithreductiontargetsforGHGsemittedbypassengercarsandlighttrucksintheregionfortheyears2020and2035. These reduction targetswillbeupdatedeveryeightyears,but canbeupdatedevery four years if advancements in emissions technologies affect the reduction strategies to achieve thetargets. CARB is also charged with reviewing each MPO’s SCS or APS for consistency with its assigned

5 California2010GreenBuildingStandardsCode,CaliforniaCodeofRegulationsTitle24,Part11.



targets. If MPOs do notmeet the GHG emission reduction targets, transportation projects would not beeligibleforfundingprogrammedafterJanuary1,2012.

This bill also extends theminimum time period for the RegionalHousingNeeds Allocation (RNHA) cyclefromfiveyearstoeightyearsforlocalgovernmentslocatedwithinanMPOthatmeetscertainrequirements.CityorCountylandusepolicies(includinggeneralplans)arenotrequiredtobeconsistentwiththeRTP(andassociated SCS or APS). However, new provisions of CEQA would incentivize qualified projects that areconsistentwithanapprovedSCSorAPS,categorizedas“transitpriorityprojects.”

InAugust2010,CARBreleasedthedraftCEQAFunctionalEquivalentDocument(FED)whichproposesGHGemissionreductiontargetsspecifictoeachMPO.TheCARBrecognizesthatGHGreductionmeasuresmaybeunique to certain areas of California where GHG reduction measures in one area may not be feasible inanother. Theproject is locatedintheSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments(SCAG)MPO,whichhasproposedregionalGHGreductiontargetsasrequiredunderSB375.Recently,SCAGproposedagoalofreducingpercapitaGHGsemissionsby8percentforYear2020and13percentforYear2035comparedtoYear2005.ThesereductiongoalswouldbeincorporatedintothenextversionoftheRTP,whichisexpectedto be adopted in 2012. Projects going through the CEQA process would be required to demonstrateconsistency with SCAG (RTP) policies including specified GHG reduction targets. Additionally, SCAG iscurrentlydevelopinganSCSplantomeetemissionreductiontargets.OnegoaloftheSCSplaniscompliancewith the provisions of SB 375 by establishing a reduction target for cars and light trucks. This plan iscurrentlyindevelopmentandisexpectedtobefinalizedin2012,aspartofthenextRTP.

Although CARB and SCAG are tasked with setting GHG reduction targets, there is no regional agencyresponsible for the regulation of GHG emissions related to global climate change. The South Coast AirQuality Management District (SCAQMD) is the agency principally responsible for comprehensive airpollutioncontrol in theSouthCoastAirBasin (SoCAB),whichencompassesOrangeCountyand theurbanportionsofLosAngeles,Riverside,andSanBernardinocounties. AlthoughtheSCAQMDisresponsible forregional air quality planning efforts, it does not have the authority to directly regulate factors leading toglobal climate change or GHG emission issues associated with plans and new development projectsthroughouttheSoCAB.InordertoprovideGHGemissionanalysisguidancetothelocaljurisdictionswithinthe SoCAB, the SCAQMDhas organized aWorkingGroup to developGHG emission analysis guidance andthresholds.

On December 5, 2008, the SCAQMD Governing Board adopted the staff proposal for an interim GHGsignificancethresholdforstationarysource/industrialprojectswheretheSCAQMDisleadagency,withthegoalofachievinga90percentemissioncapturerate.ThisgoalwasdeterminedbySCAQMDstafftobemoreappropriatetoaddressthelong‐termadverseimpactsassociatedwithglobalclimatechangebecausemostprojects will be required to implement GHG reduction measures. Further, it was determined that a 90percentemissioncapture rate sets theemission threshold lowenough to capturea substantial fractionoffuturestationarysourceprojectsthatwillbeconstructedtoaccommodatefuturestatewidepopulationandeconomic growth,while setting the emission threshold high enough to exclude small projects thatwill inaggregatecontributearelativelysmallfractionofthecumulativestatewideGHGemissions.IfCARBadoptsthe statewide significance thresholds, SCAQMD staff will report back to the Board regarding anyrecommendedchangesoradditionstotheSCAQMD’sinterimstationarysource/industrialthreshold.



The SCAQMD has not adopted a CEQA significance threshold, interim or otherwise, for GHG emissionsassociatedwithresidential/commercialdevelopment,suchastheproposedproject.

d. Local Regulations

In acknowledgment of the overlap between land use andGHG emissions, the City of Los Angeles, inMay2007,publishedGreenLA,AnActionPlan toLead theNation inFightingGlobalWarming6(LAGreenPlan),outliningthegoalsandactionstheCityhasestablishedtoreducethegenerationandemissionofGHGsfrombothpublicandprivateactivities.AccordingtotheLAGreenPlan,theCityofLosAngelesiscommittedtothegoalofreducingemissionsofCO2to35percentbelow1990levels.Toachievethis,theCitywill:

Increasethegenerationofrenewableenergy;

Improveenergyconservationandefficiency;and

Changetransportationandlandusepatternstoreducedependenceonautomobiles.

To achieve goals outlined in the LA Green Plan, in April 2008, the City of Los Angeles adopted a greenbuilding ordinance to address the impact on climate change fromnewdevelopment. The newordinanceestablishestheGreenBuildingOrdinance,wherebycertainnewdevelopmentprojectsof50,000squarefeetor more with more than 50 residential units must at a minimum meet the intent of the “certified”performancelevelundertheUSGreenBuildingCouncil’s(USGBC)LeadershipinEnergyandEnvironmentalDesign (LEEDTM) program. Examples of green building project features to meet LEEDTM certificationstandards include increasing use of renewable energy and energy efficiency,water saving fixtures,waterefficientlandscaping,recyclingmaterialsforconstruction,useofrenewablebuildingmaterialsandincreaseuseofmasstransitoralternativemodesoftransportation.

3. EXISTING CONDITIONS

GlobalclimatechangereferstochangesinaverageclimaticconditionsonEarthasawhole,includingchangesin temperature, wind patterns, precipitation and storms. Historical records indicate that global climatechangeshaveoccurred in thepastdue tonaturalphenomena;however currentdata increasingly indicatethat the current global conditionsdiffer frompast climate changes in rateandmagnitude. Global climatechangeattributabletoman‐madeGHGemissionsiscurrentlyoneofthemostimportantandwidelydebatedscientific,economicandpolitical issues intheUnitedStatesandtheworld. Theextenttowhich increasedconcentrationsofGHGshavecausedorwillcauseclimatechangeandtheappropriateactionstolimitand/orrespondtoclimatechangearethesubjectofsignificantandrapidlyevolvingregulatoryeffortsatthefederalandstatelevelsofgovernment.

GHGsarethosecompoundsintheEarth’satmospherewhichplayacriticalroleindeterminingtemperaturenear theEarth’s surface. Morespecifically, thesegasesallowhigh‐frequencyshortwavesolar radiation toentertheEarth’satmosphere,butretainsomeofthelowfrequencyinfraredenergywhichisradiatedbackfromtheEarthtowardsspace,resultinginawarmingoftheatmosphere.GHGsincludeCO2,methane(CH4),ozone (O3), water vapor, nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), andsulfurhexafluoride(SF6).CarbondioxideisthemostabundantGHGintheatmosphere.GHGsaretheresult

6 See:http://www.cityofla.org/EAD/EADWeb‐AQD/GreenLA_CAP_2007.pdf.



of both natural and man‐made activities, with the primary sources of emissions being transportation,consumptionoffossilfuelsforpowergeneration,industrialprocesses,forestfires,decomposition,landfills,andheatingandcooking.

NotallGHGspossessthesameabilitytoinduceclimatechange;asaresult,GHGcontributionsarecommonlyquantified in the equivalentmass of CO2, denoted as CO2e. Mass emissions are calculated by convertingpollutant specific emissions to CO2e emissions by applying the proper global warming potential (GWP)value.7TheseGWPratiosareavailablefromtheU.S.EPAandarepublishedintheCaliforniaClimateActionRegistry(CCAR)GeneralReportingProtocol.ByapplyingtheGWPratios,project‐relatedCO2eemissionscanbetabulatedinmetrictonsperyear.TheCO2evaluesarecalculatedforconstructionyearsaswellasexistingandprojectbuild‐out conditions inorder togenerateanet change inGHGemissions for constructionandoperation.

a. Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Worldwideman‐madeemissionsofGHGswereapproximately40,000millionmetrictonsofCO2e,includingongoingemissionsfromindustrialandagriculturalsources,butexcludingemissionsfromlandusechanges(i.e., deforestation, biomass decay) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007). CO2emissionsfromfossilfueluseaccountsfor56.6percentofthetotalemissionsof49,000millionmetrictonsCO2e (includes landuse changes) and all CO2 emissions are76.7percent of the total. Methane emissionsaccountfor14.3percentandN2Oemissionsfor7.9percent(IPCC,2007).8

TotalU.S.GHGemissions in2008were6,958millionmetric tonsCO2e,orabout14percentofworldwideGHGemissions.9Overall, totalU.S. emissionshave risenby14percent from1990 to2008. However,U.S.emissions decreased by 2.9 percent (211.3MMTCO2e) between 2007 and 2008, due in large part to therecordhighcostsofpetroleumfuelsthatoccurredin2008.Electricitydemanddeclinedin2008forthesamereason. The primary GHG emitted as the result of human activities in the United States was CO2,representingapproximately85.1percentoftotalGHGemissions.10ThelargestsourceofCO2,andofoverallGHGemissions,wasfossilfuelcombustion.Methane(CH4)emissions,whichhavedeclinedfrom1990levels,resultedprimarilyfromentericfermentationassociatedwithdomesticlivestock,decompositionofwastesinlandfills,andnaturalgassystems. Agriculturalsoilmanagementandmobilesource fossil fuelcombustionwerethemajorsourcesofN2Oemissions.TheemissionsofsubstitutesforozonedepletingsubstancesandemissionsofHFC‐23(trifluoromethaneorCHF3)duringtheproductionofHCFC‐22(chlorodifluoromethaneor CHClF2) were the primary contributors to aggregate HFC (hydrofluorocarbon) emissions. ElectricaltransmissionanddistributionsystemsaccountedformostSF6(sodiumhexafluoride)emissions,whilePFC

7 CO2ewasdevelopedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),andpublishedinitsSecondAssessmentReport(SAR)

1996.8 Carbondioxideequivalent(CO2e)isaquantitythatdescribes,foragivenmixtureandamountofGHGs,theamountofCO2(usuallyin

metrictons;millionmetrictons[megaton]=MMTCO2E=terragram[Tg]CO2 Eq; 1,000 MMT = gigaton) thatwouldhavethesameglobalwarmingpotential(GWP)whenmeasuredoveraspecifiedtimescale(generally,100years).

9 U.S.EPA,2010U.S.GreenhouseGasInventoryReport(2010).10 U.S.EPA,2010U.S.GreenhouseGasInventoryReport.



(perfluorocarbons)emissionsresulted fromsemiconductormanufacturingandasaby‐productofprimaryaluminumproduction.11

The residential andcommercial end‐use sectorsaccounted for21percentand19percent, respectively,ofCO2emissions fromfossil fuelcombustion in2008.12Bothsectorsreliedheavilyonelectricity formeetingenergy demands, with 71 and 79 percent, respectively, of their emissions attributable to electricityconsumptionforlighting,heating,cooling,andoperatingappliances.Theremainingemissionswereduetothe consumption of natural gas and petroleum for heating and cooking. California is a substantialcontributor of global GHGs as it is the second largest contributor in the United States and the sixteenthlargest in the world (AEP, 2007). Based upon the 2008 GHG inventory data (the latest year available)compiled by the CARB (CARB, 2008), California produced 474 MMT CO2e. The major source of GHG inCaliforniaistransportation,contributing37percentofthestate’stotalGHGemissions.Electricitygenerationis thesecondlargestsource,contributing25percentof thestate’sGHGemissions(CARB,2008). Most,85percent,ofCalifornia’s2008GHGemissions(intermsofCO2e)werecarbondioxideproducedfromfossilfuelcombustion,with2.5percent fromother sourcesofCO2,6.0percent frommethane, and2.8percent fromnitrousoxide(CARB,2008).Californiaemissionsaredueinparttoitslargesizeandlargepopulation.

b. Effects of Global Climate Change

The scientific community’s understanding of the fundamental processes responsible for global climatechangehas improvedover the past decade, and its predictive capabilities are advancing. However, thereremain significant scientific uncertainties, for example, in predictions of local effects of climate change,occurrence of extreme weather events, effects of aerosols, changes in clouds, shifts in the intensity anddistribution of precipitation, and changes in oceanic circulation. Due to the enormous complexity of theEarth’s climate system, the uncertainty surrounding climate changemay never be completely eliminated.Becauseoftheseuncertainties,therecontinuestobesignificantdebateoverwhichincreasedconcentrationsof GHGs are responsible for climate change, and over the appropriate actions to limit and/or respond toclimatechange.

The IPCC, in its Fourth Assessment Report (FAR), stated that “it is likely that there has been significantwarming due to human activity over the past 50 years.”13 However, it is impossible to identify a singledevelopment project as the cause of future specific climate change impacts due to the global nature ofclimatechange. Also intheFAR, the IPCCholdsthatthe impactsof futureclimatechangewillvaryacrossregions. While “large‐scale climateeventshave thepotential to causevery large impacts,” the impactsoffutureclimatechangewillbemixedacrossregions.

According to theCARB, someof thepotential impacts inCaliforniaof globalwarmingmay include loss insnowpack,sealevelrise,moreextremeheatdaysperyear,morehighozonedays,morelargeforest fires,andmoredroughtyears(CARB,2007).Belowisasummaryofsomeofthepotentialeffects,reportedbyanarrayofstudiesthatcouldbeexperiencedinCaliforniaasaresultofglobalwarmingandclimatechange:

11 U.S.EPA,2010U.S.GreenhouseGasInventoryReport.12 U.S.EPA,2010U.S.GreenhouseGasInventoryReport.13 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,FourthAssessmentReport,SummaryforPolicyMakers,2007.



Air Quality. Higher temperatures, conducive to air pollution formation, could worsen air quality inCalifornia. Climatechangemayincreasetheconcentrationofground‐levelozone,butthemagnitudeoftheeffect, and therefore, its indirect effects, are uncertain. If higher temperatures are accompanied by drierconditions,thepotentialforlargewildfirescouldincrease,which,inturn,wouldfurtherworsenairquality.However, ifhighertemperaturesareaccompaniedbywetter,ratherthandrierconditions,therainswouldtend to temporarily clear the air of particulate pollution and reduce the incidence of largewildfires, thusameliorating the pollution associated with wildfires. Additionally, severe heat accompanied by drierconditions and poor air quality could increase the number of heat‐related deaths, illnesses, and asthmaattacksthroughoutthestate(CEC,February2006).

WaterSupply. Uncertaintyremainswithrespect to theoverall impactofglobalclimatechangeon futurewater supplies inCalifornia. Studieshave found that, “Considerable uncertainty aboutprecise impacts ofclimate change on California hydrology andwater resourceswill remain untilwe havemore precise andconsistentinformationabouthowprecipitationpatterns,timing,andintensitywillchange.”(Kiparskyetal.2003). For example, some studies identify little change in total annual precipitation in projections forCalifornia (California Climate Change Center, 2008). Other studies show significantlymore precipitation(ClimateChangeandCaliforniaWaterResources[(DWR2006)]). Evenassumingthatclimatechangeleadstolong‐termincreasesinprecipitation,analysisoftheimpactofclimatechangeisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatnostudieshaveidentifiedorquantifiedtherunoffimpactssuchanincreaseinprecipitationwouldhave inparticularwatersheds.14 Also, little isknownabouthowgroundwaterrechargeandwaterqualitywouldbeaffected(Ibid.).Higherrainfallcouldleadtogreatergroundwaterrecharge,althoughreductionsinspringrunoffandhigherevapotranspirationcouldreducetheamountofwateravailableforrecharge(Ibid.).

The California Department ofWater Resources (DWR 2006) report on climate change and effects on theStateWaterProject(SWP),theCentralValleyProject,andtheSacramento‐SanJoaquinDelta,concludesthat“[c]climatechangewilllikelyhaveasignificanteffectonCalifornia’sfuturewaterresources...[and]futurewaterdemand.”Italsoreportsthat“muchuncertaintyaboutfuturewaterdemand[remains],especially[for]thoseaspectsoffuturedemandthatwillbedirectlyaffectedbyclimatechangeandwarming.Whileclimatechangeisexpectedtocontinuethroughatleasttheendofthiscentury,themagnitudeand,insomecases,thenature of future changes is uncertain” (DWR, 2006). The relationship between climate change and itspotentialeffectonwaterdemandisnotwellunderstood(DWR,2006).DWRaddsthat“[i]tisunlikelythatthislevelofuncertaintywilldiminishsignificantlyintheforeseeablefuture.”Still,changesinwatersupplyareexpectedtooccur,andmanyregionalstudieshaveshownthat largechangesinthereliabilityofwateryields fromreservoirscouldresult fromonlysmall changes in inflows (Kiparsky2003;DWR2005;Cayan2006,Cayan,D.,etal,2006).

Hydrology. Asdiscussed above, climate changes couldpotentially affect: the amountof snowfall, rainfallandsnowpack;theintensityandfrequencyofstorms;floodhydrographs(flashfloods,rainorsnowevents,coincidentalhigh tideandhighrunoffevents); sea level riseandcoastal flooding;coastalerosion;and thepotential for salt water intrusion. Sea level rise can be a product of global warming through twomainprocesses:expansionofseawaterastheoceanswarm,andmeltingoficeoverland.Ariseinsealevelscouldresult in coastal flooding and erosion and could jeopardize California’s water supply. Increased stormintensityand frequencycouldaffect theabilityof flood‐control facilities, including levees, tohandlestormevents.

14 CaliforniaClimateChangeCenter(2006).



Agriculture. California has a $30billion agricultural industry thatproduceshalf the country’s fruits andvegetables. Higher CO2 levels can stimulate plant production and increase plant water‐use efficiency.However, if temperaturesriseanddrierconditionsprevail,waterdemandcouldincrease;crop‐yieldcouldbe threatened by a less reliable water supply; and greater ozone pollution could render plants moresusceptibletopestanddiseaseoutbreaks.Inaddition,temperatureincreasescouldchangethetimeofyearcertaincrops,suchaswinegrapes,bloomorripen,andthusaffecttheirquality(CCCC,2006).

EcosystemsandWildlife.Increasesinglobaltemperaturesandthepotentialresultingchangesinweatherpatterns could have ecological effects on a global and local scale. Increasing concentrations of GHGs arelikelytoacceleratetherateofclimatechange.Scientistsexpectthattheaverageglobalsurfacetemperaturecould rise 1.0‐4.5°F (0.6‐ 2.5°C) in the next fifty years, and 2.2‐10°F (1.4‐5.8°C) in the next century,withsignificant regional variation (EPA 2000). Soilmoisture is likely to decline inmany regions, and intenserainstormsarelikelytobecomemorefrequent. SealevelcouldriseasmuchastwofeetalongmostoftheU.S.coast.Risingtemperaturescouldhavefourmajorimpactsonplantsandanimals:(1)timingofecologicalevents; (2) geographic range; (3) species’ compositionwithin communities; and (4) ecosystem processessuchascarboncyclingandstorage(Parmesan,2004;Parmesan,C.andH.Galbraith2004.)

4. IMPACT ANALYSIS

a. Methodology

As described below, a number of methodologies and significance thresholds have been proposed foranalyzingimpactsonglobalclimatechange.However,atthistimenodefinitivethresholdsormethodologieshave been approved for determining the significance of a project’s potential cumulative contribution toglobalclimatechangeinCEQAdocuments.

For thepurposesof thisEIRandaswillbeexplained inmoredetail below, totalGHGemissions from theproposedprojectwere quantified to determinewhether the projectwould be consistentwithAB32 (i.e.,reduction of statewide GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020). As stated above, themandate of AB 32demonstratesCalifornia’scommitmenttoreducingGHGemissionsandthestate’sassociatedcontributiontoclimatechange,without intending to limitpopulationoreconomicgrowthwithin thestate. AparticularlyillustrativemethodtodetermineconsistencywithAB32,andonethathastheco‐benefitofbeingbasedonquantificationofemissions,istocompareaproject’semissionsasproposedtothatproject’semissionsifitweretobebuiltutilizingBAUdesign,methodology,andtechnology.IfaprojectconstitutesanequivalentorlargerbreakfromBAUthanhasbeendeterminedbyCARBtobenecessarytomeetAB32’sgoalsfor2020(approximately28.4percent),thenthatprojectcanbeconsideredconsistentwithAB32and,therefore,willnothaveasignificantimpactontheenvironmentduetoitsgreenhousegasemissions.

This is the average level of emissions reduction performance that would need to be achieved across allsectorsoftheeconomytomeetAB32goals(i.e.,appliedtobothnewandexistinggreenhousegasemissionssources), and CARB and other state agencies have indicated that specific sectors of the economymay berequiredtocontributegreaterlevelsofreduction.15

15 AccordingtotheBayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict,thelandusesectoronlyneedachievea26percentreductionfromBAU

tomeetAB32’srequirements:“Asstatedabove,tomeettherequirementssetforthinAB32(i.e.,achieveCalifornia’s1990equivalent



CCARhaspreparedtheGeneralReportingProtocol(GRP)forcalculatingandreportingGHGemissionsfroma number of general and industry‐specific activities.16 No specific protocols are available for land useprojects, so the CCAR GRP has been adapted to address GHG emissions from the proposed project. Theinformationprovided in this section is consistentwith theCCARGRP’sminimumreporting requirements.The CCAR GRP recommends the separation of GHG emissions into three categories that reflect differentaspectsofownershiporcontroloveremissions.Theyinclude:

Scope1: Direct, on‐site combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., natural gas, propane, gasoline, anddiesel).

Scope2: Indirect,off‐siteemissionsassociatedwithpurchasedelectricityorpurchasedsteam.

Scope3: Indirect emissions associated with other emissions sources, such as third‐partyvehiclesandembodiedenergy.17

CARBbelieves that consideration of so‐called indirect emissions provides amore complete picture of theGHG footprintofa facility: “As facilitiesconsiderchanges thatwouldaffect theiremissions–additionofacogenerationunittoboostoverallefficiencyevenasitincreasesdirectemissions,forexample–therelativeimpact on total (direct plus indirect) emissions by the facility should be monitored. Annually reportedindirectenergyusagealsoaidstheconservationawarenessofthefacilityandprovidesinformation”toCARBto be considered for future strategies by the industrial sector.18 For these reasons, CARB has proposedrequiringthecalculationofdirectandindirectGHGemissionsaspartoftheAB32reportingrequirements.Additionally, OPR directs lead agencies to “make a good‐faith effort, based on available information, tocalculate, model, or estimate…GHG emissions from a project, including the emissions associated withvehicular traffic, energy consumption, water usage and construction activities.”19 Therefore, direct andindirectemissionshavebeencalculatedfortheproposedproject.

Forpurposesofthisanalysis,itisconsideredreasonableandconsistentwithcriteriapollutantcalculationstoconsideronlythoseGHGemissionsresultingfromproposedproject‐relatedincremental(net)increaseintheuseofon‐roadmobilevehicles,electricity,andnaturalgascomparedtoexistingconditions.Thisincludesproject construction activities such asdemolition, hauling, and constructionworker trips. SincepotentialimpactsresultingfromGHGemissionsarelong‐termratherthanacute,GHGemissionsarecalculatedonanannualbasis.

GHGemissionslevelsby2020)Californiawouldneedtoachieveanapproximate28percentreductioninemissionsacrossallsectorsoftheGHGemissionsinventorycomparedwith2020projections.However,tomeettheAB32reductiongoalsintheemissionssectorsthatarerelatedtolandusedevelopment(e.g.,on‐roadpassengerandheavydutymotorvehicles,commercialandresidentialareasources [i.e.,naturalgas], electricitygeneration/consumption,wastewater treatment,andwaterdistribution/consumption), staffdeterminedthatCaliforniawouldneedtoachieveanapproximate26percentreductioninGHGemissionsfromtheselanduse‐drivensectors (ARB2009a)by2020 to return to1990 landuse emission levels.”BayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict,CaliforniaEnvironmental Quality Act Guidelines Update – Proposed Thresholds of Significance, at 14 (December 7, 2009)(available athttp://www.baaqmd.gov/Divisions/Planning‐and‐Research/CEQAGUIDELINES.aspx).

16 CaliforniaClimateActionRegistry,GeneralReportingProtocolVersion3.1,2009.17 Embodiedenergyincludesenergyrequiredforwaterpumpingandtreatmentforend‐uses.18 CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard (CARB),2007a. InitialStatementofReasons forRulemaking,ProposedRegulation forMandatory

Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pursuant to the California GlobalWarming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32).PlanningandTechnicalSupportDivisionEmissionInventoryBranch,October19,2007.

19 OPRTechnicalAdvisory,p.5.



Constructionemissionswerecalculatedusing theCalEEModmodel,which isbasedonOFFROAD2007andEMFAC2007modeloutputs.CalEEModisastatewidelanduseemissionscomputermodelwhichcalculatescriteriapollutantandgreenhousegasemissionsassociatedwithconstructionandoperationfromavarietyoflanduseprojects.ThemodelwasdevelopedincollaborationwiththeairdistrictsofCaliforniaincludingtheSCAQMD.OFFROAD2007andEMFAC2007areemissionsestimationmodelsdevelopedbyCARBtocalculateemissionsfromconstructionactivities.Theoutputvaluesusedinthisanalysiswereadjustedtobeproject‐specific,basedonequipmentusagerates, typeof fuel,andconstructionschedule. Thesevalueswerethenapplied to the construction phasing assumptions used in the criteria pollutant analysis to generate GHGemissions values for each construction year (refer toAppendixB.4 of thisDraft EIR). CalEEMod outputsreportCO2,,CH4, andN2Oemissions. InCalEEMod, values arederived from factorspublished in the2006IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)GuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.Thesevalues are then converted to metric tons for consistency. The CO2e values are calculated for the entireconstruction period aswell as existing and future project build‐out conditions in order to generate a netchange in GHG emissions for construction and operation (refer to Appendix B.4 of this Draft EIR). InaccordancewithSCAQMDguidance,GHGemissionsfromconstructionhavebeenamortizedoverthe30‐yearlifetime of the project (i.e., total construction GHG emissionswere divided by 30 to determine an annualconstructionemissionsestimatecomparabletooperationalemissions).

Mobile sourceemission calculationsassociatedwithoperationof theproposedproject are also calculatedusingtheCalEEModmodel.Themodelutilizesaprojectionofannualvehiclemilestraveled(VMT),whichisderivedfromtheTrafficStudyconductedfortheproject(providedinAppendixB.4ofthisDraftEIR).Thesevaluesaccountforthedailyandseasonalvariationsintripfrequencyandlengthassociatedwiththeprojecttrips.Mobilesourceemissionsalsoaccountforresidentstravelingtoandfromworkandotheractivitiesthatrequire a commute. Modeling options are available in the CalEEModmodel to account for vehicular tripreducing project features. Net emission values are calculated based on the difference between existingconditionsandprojectbuildoutconditions.MobilesourcecalculationsalsoutilizeEMFAC2007andtheCCARGRP,Version3.1 togenerate emission factors forCO2andCH4, andN2O. Theseemission factorsare thenappliedtotheannualVMTcalculatedintheTrafficStudy.

The calculation of emissions is evaluated for the proposed project with the project design features thatwouldreduceGHGemissions,andthencomparedtotheGHGemissionsthatwouldoccurundera“businessasusual”orBAUscenario.TheBAUscenarioassumesconstructionandoperationofcomparableamenities(housing)similarinscaleandsizetoservetheregionalneed.ABAUcasedoesnotconsiderthesite‐specificbenefits or reductions in GHG emissions resulting from co‐location of uses, availability of publictransportation, project design features, or prescribedmitigation measures. “Business as usual” scenarioemissionsestimatesassumeenergyandwaterconsumption,emissionfactors,andGHGemissionreductionmeasuresinaccordancewiththeminimumregulatoryrequirementsinplaceatthetimeAB32wasenrolledin2006,andthereforebasedonanannualemissionsinventorypreparedbyCARBforyear2005.

EmissionscalculationsfortheprojectincludecreditsorreductionsforprojectdesignfeaturesandotherGHGreducingmeasuresrequiredbyregulation,suchasreductionsinenergyorwaterdemand.SincetheprojectissubjecttotheLAGreenBuildingOrdinanceandCALGreenstandards,projectfeatureswillbeincorporatedconsistentwiththestandardsoftheLEEDTM“certified”rating.Inaddition,asmobilesourceGHGemissionsaredirectlydependentonthenumberofvehicletrips,adecreaseinthenumberofprojectgeneratedtripsasaresultofprojectfeatureswillprovideaproportionalreductioninmobilesourceGHGemissions.Modeling



optionsareavailableintheCalEEModmodeltoaccountforsuchvehiculartrip‐reducingprojectfeaturesasdetailedbelow.

Increasedensityofresidentialunitstoreducesprawl

Locateprojectclosertourbancentersorareaswithahighconcentrationofjobs(downtown)

Transit—closeproximitytolocaltransitlines,specificallybuslines.

Bike and Pedestrian (non‐motorized access to transit) — accessibility to the project site fromsidewalksandbicyclelanes.

Trip and VMT reductions are calculated based on distance from the project to employment centers (e.g.,Century City) and transit centers (e.g., numerous bus lines and the proposed extension of the Westsidesubway system). Projects which place residential uses near centers of employment would reduce thecommutedistancerequiredforTripandVMTreductioncalculationsasdetailedinAppendixB.4ofthisDraftEIR. Mobile source emission calculations associated with operation of the proposed project utilize aprojectionofannualvehiclemilestraveled(VMT),whichisderivedfromtheTrafficStudyperformedfortheproject, AppendixH of this Draft EIR. These values account for the daily and seasonal variations in tripfrequencyand length associatedwithvarious landuses. Net emissionvalues are calculatedbasedon theincrementalincreasesfromtheexistingconditionstotheproposedprojectbuildoutconditions.Inadditionto mobile source (vehicular) GHG emissions, the CalEEMod model also calculates GHG emissions fromsourcessuchasenergyusage,waterandwastewaterusageandsolidwastegeneration.

Withregardtoenergyusage, theconsumptionof fossil fuelstogenerateelectricityandtoprovideheatingandhotwaterresultsinGHGemissions.Futurefuelconsumptionratesarebasedontheproject’snumberofdwellingunits. Energyusage(off‐siteelectricitygenerationandon‐sitenaturalgasconsumption)fortheproposedprojectiscalculatedwithinCalEEModusingtheResidentialApplianceSaturationSurvey(RASS).

Waterandwastewatergeneratedfromtheprojectrequireenergytosupply,distributeandtreat.CalEEModcalculateswaterusagebasedonthePacificInstitute“WasteNotWantNot”report20. TheCaliforniaEnergyCommission’sestimateforenergyintensityofthewaterusecycleinsouthernCaliforniaisusedtocalculatethe energy usage related to water conveyance. Emission factors from the CCAR GRP, Version 3.1 areimplemented incalculatingtheassociatedGHGs. Becausewaterconveyanceassociatedwiththeproposedprojectisregionalinnature,theemissionfactorsusedinthiscomponentoftheanalysisrepresentaState‐wide average of known power producing facilities, utilizing various technologies and emission controlstrategies.

EmissionsfromsolidwastehandlinggeneratedfromtheprojectarealsoaccountedforintheGHGemissionsinventory. Waste disposal rates from the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery(CalRecycle) data for individual land uses was used to estimate the amount of waste generated by the

20 Gleick,P.H.;Haasz,D.;Henges‐Jeck,C.;Srinivasan,V.;Cushing,K.K.;Mann,A.2003.WasteNot,WantNot:ThePotential forUrban

Water Conservation in California. Published by the Pacific Institute for Studies inDevelopment,Environment, and Security. Fullreportavailableonlineat:http://www.pacinst.org/reports/urban_usage/waste_not_want_not_full_report.pdf.Appendicesavailableonlineat:http://www.pacinst.org/reports/urban_usage/appendices.htm



project. GHG emissions from solid waste are calculated based on decomposition of waste into methanebasedonAP‐42,EPA’sCompilationofAirPollutantEmissionFactors.21

a. Significance Thresholds

Until the passage of AB 32, California Environmental Quality Act documents generally did not evaluategreenhousegasemissionsorimpactsonglobalclimatechange.TheprimaryfocusofairpollutantanalysisinCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityActdocumentswastheemissionofcriteriapollutants,orthoseidentifiedintheStateandFederalCleanAirActsasbeingofmostconcerntothepublicandgovernmentagencies.WiththepassageofAB32,amoredetailedanalysisofgreenhousegasemissions is recommended inCaliforniaEnvironmental Quality Act documents. However, the analysis of greenhouse gases is different from theanalysisofcriteriapollutants. Sincethehalf‐lifeofcarbondioxideisapproximately100years,greenhousegases affect the global climate over a relatively long timeframe. Conversely, for criteria pollutants,significancethresholds/impactsarebasedondailyemissions;andthedeterminationofattainmentornon‐attainmentarebasedonthedailyexceedanceofapplicableambientairqualitystandards(e.g.,one‐hourandeight‐hourexposures).

InitsJanuary2008CaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityActandClimateChangewhitepaper,theCaliforniaAirPollution Control Officers Association identified a number of potential approaches for determining thesignificanceof greenhousegasemissions inCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityActdocuments. In itswhitepaper,theCaliforniaAirPollutionControlOfficersAssociationsuggestsmakingsignificancedeterminationsonacase‐by‐casebasiswhennosignificancethresholdshavebeenformallyadoptedbytheleadagency.Oneof the potential approaches identified in the California Air Pollution Control Officers Association WhitePaper,Threshold1.1,wouldrequireaprojecttomeetapercentreductiontarget.ThistargetwouldbebasedontheaveragereductionfromBAUemissionsidentifiedbyCARBasnecessarytosatisfyAB32'smandateofreturningto1990levelsofgreenhousegasemissionsby2020.CARBhascalculatedthenecessaryreductiontobeapproximately28.4percentfromBAU.

The Office of Planning and Research, in its June 19, 2008 Technical Advisory, recognized that CaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityActguidelineshadnotbeenadoptedtoprovideguidanceastohowclimatechangeisto be addressed under the California Environmental Quality Act. The Office of Planning and Researchprovided the following “informal guidance” regarding the following steps for addressing climate changeimpactsundertheCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityAct:

Identifyandquantifythegreenhousegasemissions;

Assessthesignificanceoftheimpactonclimatechange;and

If significant, identify alternatives and/or mitigation measures that will reduce impacts belowsignificance.22

Additionally,theCityofLosAngelesCEQAThresholdsGuide(2006)doesnotcurrentlyprovideguidanceastohowclimatechangeissuesaretobeaddressed.21 AP42,CompilationofAirPollutantEmissionFactors,hasbeenpublishedsince1972astheprimarycompilationofEPA'semission

factor information. It contains emission factors and process information for more than 200 air pollution source categories.http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/ap42/

22 OfficeofPlanningandResearchTechnicalAdvisory,p.5.



OnDecember30,2009,theOfficeofPlanningandResearchtransmittedproposedCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityActGuidelinesAmendmentsforGreenhouseGasEmissionswereadoptedbytheNaturalResourcesAgency. Notably, the amendmentsdidnot establish a thresholdof significance; instead lead agencies arecalledontoestablishsignificancethresholdsfortheirrespectivejurisdictions.TheCaliforniaEnvironmentalQuality Act Guidelines Amendments also clarified “that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions arecumulative,andshouldbeanalyzedinthecontextofCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityAct'srequirementsforcumulativeimpactanalysis.”23

OPRtransmitted theGuidelinesAmendmentsby the July1,2009deadline, theResourcesAgencycertifiedand adopted the guidelines prior to the January 1, 2010 deadline, and the guidelines went into effect inMarch 2010. Appendix G of the StateCEQAGuidelinesprovides sample checklist questions for use in anInitial Study to determine a project’s potential for environmental impacts. Themost recent amendmentsrelating to climate change and GHG emissions encourage lead agencies to consider many factors inperformingaCEQAanalysis,butpreservethediscretiongrantedbyCEQAtoleadagenciesinmakingtheirown determinations based on substantial evidence. The Guideline amendments include the followingquestions:

Wouldtheproject:

Generategreenhousegasemissions,eitherdirectlyorindirectly,thatmayhaveasignificantimpactontheenvironment,basedonanyapplicablethresholdofsignificance?

Conflict with any applicable plan, policy or regulation of an agency adopted for the purpose ofreducingtheemissionsofgreenhousegases?

CEQA leaves the determination of significance to the reasonable discretion of the lead agency andencourages lead agencies to develop and publish thresholds of significance to use in determining thesignificance of environmental effects. However, neither the SCAQMDnor the City of Los Angeles has yetestablished specific quantitative significance thresholds for GHG emissions for residential or commercialprojects. In the latest CEQA Guidelines amendments, which went into effect on March 18, 2010, OPRencourages leadagencies tomakeuseofprogrammaticmitigationplansandprograms fromwhich to tierwhentheyperformindividualprojectanalyses.However,currentlytheCityofLosAngelesdoesnothaveaprogrammatic mitigation plan to tier from, such as a Greenhouse Reduction Plan, that meets therequirementssetforthinthelatestOPRguidelines.

Additionally,duetothecomplexphysical,chemical,andatmosphericmechanismsinvolvedinglobalclimatechange, it is speculative to identify the specific impact, if any, to global climate change fromoneproject’sincrementalincreaseinglobalgreenhousegasemissions.Assuch,aproject’sgreenhousegasemissionsandtheresultingsignificanceofpotentialimpactsaremoreproperlyassessedonacumulativebasis.Assessingthesignificanceofaproject’scontributiontocumulativeglobalclimatechangeinvolves:(1)determininganinventory of project greenhouse gas emissions; and (2) considering project consistency with applicableemissionreductionstrategiesandgoals,suchasthosesetforthbyAB32.

23 LetterfromCynthiaBryant,DirectoroftheOfficeofPlanningandResearchtoMikeChrisman,SecretaryforNaturalResources(April

13,2009).



As discussed in Subsection2, Regulatory Framework, above,AB32 establishesGHG reduction targets forState‐wideemissions,andnotspecifictargetsforthehousingdevelopmentsector.SCAGhasproposeddraftreduction targets specific to reductions expected from land use decisions at much lower levels,approximately8to13percentbelowBAU.Therefore,demonstratingconsistencywiththemoreaggressiveAB32State‐widetargetsisconsideredconservative.Basedontheforegoing,aproposedprojectwouldhaveasignificantimpactif:

GHG‐1 Project‐wideemissionsreductiondoesnotconstituteanequivalentorlargerbreakfromBAUthanhasbeendeterminedbyCARBtobenecessarytomeetAB32’s2020mandate(approximately28.4percent).

c. Project Design Features

Thefollowingdesignfeaturesresultinareductioninairpollutantemissionsandareproposedaspartoftheproject.

The project would provide high density housing within a mixed‐use regional center containingcommercial and entertainment activities, as well as residential and office high‐rise towers. Theprojectsite is locatedwithinSCAG’s2%StrategyOpportunityArea,anarea identifiedaspreferredforhighdensitydevelopmenttoreducevehiclemilestraveledandrelatedairemissionsimpacts,inconjunction with regional policies to achieve among other goals, a reduction in GHGs. Given, itslocation, the project would support pedestrian access to a considerable range of retail andentertainment activities. Theproject also provides excellent access to the regional transportationsystem as it is located in proximity to numerous bus lines and the proposed extension of theWestsidesubwaysystem(PurpleLine).

All off‐road diesel construction equipment remaining on‐site formore than 15work dayswill beretrofittedwithCARBverifiedLevel3dieselparticulatefilters(DPF)orothercontroldeviceswhichachieveat least85%reduction inparticulatematteremissions, if commerciallyavailable. A listofcurrentlyavailableCARBverifiedDPFsareavailableontheCARBwebsite.24

Baseline standards for energy efficiency would be exceeded by utilizing design methods andtechnologiessuchaspassivesolardesign,high‐performance,insulatedglass,appropriately‐orientedshading devices, vertical gardens to provide enhanced thermal comfort and solar control, and aplantedgreenroof.

Energy‐savingtechnologiesandcomponentswouldbeappliedtoreducetheproject’selectricaluse‐profile. Examples of these components include efficient/low energy light fixtures and energyefficientheatingandcoolingequipment.

Energy associated with heating and cooling loads would be reduced through the use of suchtechniques as high‐albedo (or reflective) roofing (such as light‐colored, build‐up “white” roofs)and/or“green”(orvegetated)roofs.

Commissioning would be used to ensure that the project’s lighting, mechanical, heating, cooling,ventilation,andotherenergyandwater‐consumingsystemsareoperatingattheirdesignedlevelsofefficiency.

24 http://www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/verdev/level3/level3.htm



TheprojectwouldbedesignedtomeetthestandardsforLeadership inEnergyandEnvironmentalDesign (LEED) certification by theU.S. GreenBuilding Council through the incorporation of greenbuildingtechniquesandothersustainabilityfeatures.

Trees and other landscaping would be used to shade the project’s structures, open‐spaces, andparkingareasandasameanstocapture(sequester)carbondioxideemissions.Theprojectincludesapproximately 43,141 square feet of ground‐level landscaping, approximately 41 percent of theprojectsite,andapproximately27,579squarefeetofopenspaceonalandscapedrecreationdeckontop of the ancillary building. It also includes additional landscaped setback areas and parkwaylandscaping.Theancillarybuilding’sverticallandscapingwouldalsofurtherreducetheheat‐islandeffect.

To themaximum practical extent, recyclablematerials would be recycled. The project would beconsistentwithCitystrategiesaimedtoachieve70percentrecyclingby2020,thusexceedingLEEDTMcriteria which includes: diversion of 50 percent of the construction waste from land‐fills; use ofrecycledor recycled‐contentmaterial for at least20percent of theproject’s constructionmaterialtotal; and use of regionally‐sourcedmaterial for at least 10 percent of the project’s construction.Oncetheproject isoperational, thiswouldinvolveprovidingmultiple locationsforthestorageandcollectionofrecyclablematerials.

Water usage (versus “business as usual”) would be reduced by implementing drip irrigation andwater efficient fixtures. On‐site reductions in water use would reduce the amount of energynecessarytotransportthewatertothesite,andthusreducetheproject’sindirectenergydemandsandassociatedGHGemissions.Specifically,waterconservationwouldbemaximizedthroughtheuseof:

o Water efficient fixtures and appliances (e.g. high efficiency showerhead toilets, and ahighefficiency/demandwaterheatersystem);and

o Specificlandscapingfeaturessuchasaweather‐basedirrigationcontrollerwithrainshutoff;matched precipitation (flow) rates for sprinkler heads; drip/microspray/subsurfaceirrigation where appropriate; a minimum irrigation system distribution uniformity of 75percent; proper hydro‐zoning, turf minimization and use of native/drought tolerant plantmaterials;useoflandscapecontouringtominimizeprecipitationrunoff;andaseparatewatermeter (or submeter), flow sensor, and master valve shutoff for irrigated landscape areastotaling5,000squarefeetandgreater.

Electriccarchargingstationswouldbeprovidedfortenantsuse.

The project’s optional automated parking system, if implemented, would further reduce GHGemissions,withconstructionofasmallerancillarybuildingandreductionsinvehiclemilestraveledasautomobileenginesareshutoffattheentrytotheparkingstructure.

d. Project Impacts

Impacts of the project on GHGswould bemostly similar for developmentwith the Conventional ParkingOption and theAutomatedParkingOption. For construction, bothparking optionswould require similarexcavation and grading for site preparation, similar foundation work, and substantially similar buildingerectionprograms;andthelargestbuildingcomponent,theresidentialtower,wouldbethesame.Likewise,projectoperationswouldbethesame,asbothwouldhavesimilarsiteuses,andwouldgeneratethesameamountoftraffic.



Notwithstanding, the Automated Parking Option would reduce GHGs in two ways, as compared to theConventionalParkingOption. First, the smaller ancillarybuildingassociatedwith theAutomatedParkingOptionwouldrequirealessextensiveconstructionprogramwithlessuseofnaturalresources,andaloweruseofpoweredconstructionequipment.Second,withuseofanautomatedparkingsystem,vehicleenginesarecutoffattheentrytoagarage,reducingthevehicleemissionsthatwouldnormallybecreatedbytravelwithinamultilevelparkingstructure.

ThefollowinganalysisfocusesonthecontributionsoftheprojecttoGHGemissionsperthemorestandardapproachoftheConventionalParkingOption.However,theuseofanautomatedparkingsystemwouldbeanotableexampleofaprojectdesignfeaturethatcontributestoreductionofGHGs.

Construction

Emissions of GHGswere calculated for each year of construction of the proposed project and results arepresentedonTableIV.E‐1,ConstructionGreenhouseGasEmissions.TobeconsistentwithguidancefromtheSCAQMD for calculating criteria pollutants from construction activities, GHG emissions from on‐siteconstructionactivitiesandoff‐sitehaulingandconstructionworkercommutingareconsideredasproject‐generated.Constructionoftheprojectisestimatedtoemitatotalof7,814tonsofCO2eoverthe36monthsof construction. Constructionemissionshavebeenamortizedacross the30year lifetimeof theproposedproject,perSCAQMDmethodology. Whenamortizedover30years, constructionresults inapproximately260tonsperyearofCO2e.

Table IV.E‐1

Construction Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Emission Source CO2e (Metric Tons)

Construction(Total–Years2012‐2015) 7,814Construction(Amortized–30years) 260 Source:PCRServicesCorporation,2011

Operations

Sincetheprojectwouldconstructmorethan50,000squarefeetofresidentialspace,theprojectmustcomplywiththeGreenBuildingProgram,asstatedabove.TheresidentialdesignwouldberequiredtoincludeGHG–reductionmeasuresthatwillmeettheLEEDTM“certified”levelofperformanceandsomesuchmeasureshavebeenincludedinthequantitativeanalysis,suchasenergyefficientappliances,enhancedinsulation,andlow‐water fixturesandefficient irrigation;aswellasother featuresnoted in theprojectdesign featuresabove(e.g., sustainable landscape features such as selecting plant types accustomed to the Southern Californiaclimate,plantingshadetrees,andinstallinghigh‐efficiencyirrigationsystemstoreducewaterdemand).

Theprojectisexpectedtobefullyoperationalandoccupiedin2016,andtheannualGHGemissionsfortheexpectedopeningyearwerecalculated.However,AB32hasnotestablishedaGHGreductiongoalfor2016.Therefore,annualemissionswerecalculated for futureoperationalyears,2020and2035, coincidentwiththe long‐termCARBandSCAGplanninghorizon. Project operational emissions calculated for years2020



and 2035 take into account GHG‐reducing project features in the quantitative analysis, such as improvedenergyefficiency,reducedwaterdemandandimprovedaccessibilitytoalternativemodesoftransportation(walking,biking,masstransit)aslistedabove.EmissionsfromBAUscenariosfor2020and2035werealsocalculated.

As shown inTable IV.E‐2, Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions ‐ CO2e, BAU GHG emissions resulting fromvehicle,electrical,andnaturalgasusageassociatedwithconstructionandoperationoftheproposedprojectwasestimatedtobe3,999metrictonsCO2eforhorizonyear2020.FutureoperationalGHGemissionswithGHG‐reducingprojectfeaturesimplementedforyear2016and2020isshowntobe2,899and2,598metrictons CO2e respectively. Although implementation of the project would result in an increase in GHGemissionsascomparedtoexistinguses(thesite iscurrentlyvacant), theprojectasproposedresults inanoverall decrease in emissions when compared to similar development built without incorporation ofsustainable strategies. These results demonstrate that the GHG‐reducingmeasures to be included in theproject result in a reduction in total emissions of approximately 34.6 percent for analysis year 2020compared tosimilardevelopmentbuilt inaccordancewith theminimumstandards inplacebeforeAB32.These reductions exceed CARB’s calculated AB 32 reduction target of 28.4 percent below BAU by 2020.Therefore,theprojectwouldresultinalessthansignificantimpactwithregardtoGHGemissions.

Table IV.E‐2

Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions ‐ CO2e (tons/year)

Emission Source

Proposed Project‐ 2016 BAU ‐ 2020

Proposed Project‐ 2020

GHG Reduction

% Reduction Below BAU

CO2ee (Metric Tons)

Construction(amortized) 260 260 260 0 n/a

On‐roadVehiclesa 1,522 2,367 1,349 (1,018) ‐43.0%

Electricityb 516 675 430 (245) ‐36.3%

Naturalgasc 331 389 331 (58) ‐15.0%

WaterConveyanced 202 224 168 (56) ‐25.0%

Wastee 59 59 59 0 0.0%

Total 2,891 3,975 2,598 (1,377) ‐34.6%AB‐32ReductionTarget 28.5%

Meetsorexceedstarget? Yes

a Mobile source values were derived using CalEEMod. BAU emissions do not include Pavley or LCFS standards. Emissions calculated using the CARB Pavley I and Low Carbon Fuel Standard Post processor for EMFAC2007.

b Electricity Usage Rates from CalEEMod default values for Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. Proposed project emissions include CalGreen Mandatory Requirements which increases energy efficiency by 15% beyond Title 24 requirement and LADWP's improvement to meet 33% RPS target.

c Natural Gas Usage Rates from California Commercial End Use Survey (CEUS). Project related emissions include CALGreen requirements.

d Water conveyance energy rates from California Energy Commission Staff Report: California's Water ‐ Energy Relationship. 2007. Project related electricity emission factors include 33% RPS. Reduction in water demand due to project design features not quantified.

c Reduction in trash generation not quantified. Project would be consistent with City and regional initiatives. Source: PCR Services Corporation, 2011



Asdescribedabove,thisGHGanalysiswasperformedinaccordancewithSCAQMDandCARBguidance.Duetothecomplexphysical,chemicalandatmosphericmechanismsinvolved inglobalclimatechange,thereisnobasisforconcludingthattheproject'semissionsincreasecouldactuallycauseameasurable increaseinglobal GHG emissions necessary to influence global climate change. Newer construction materials andpractices, current energy efficiency requirements, and newer appliances tend to emit lower levels of airpollutantemissions, includingGHGs,ascompared to thosebuiltyearsago,but theneteffect isdifficult toquantify. Thus, the estimated net increase in emissions resulting from implementation of the proposedproject presented above may be an over‐ or under‐estimation. The GHG emissions of the project alonewouldnotlikelycauseadirectphysicalchangeintheenvironment.Itisglobalemissionsintheiraggregatethatcontributetoclimatechange,notanyonesourceofemissionsalone.Therefore,duetotheincrementalamountofGHGemissionsestimatedforthisproject,thelackofanyevidenceforconcludingthattheproject'sGHG emissions could cause any measurable increase in global GHG emissions necessary to force globalclimatechange,andthefactthattheprojectincorporatesdesignfeaturestoreducepotentialGHGemissions,theprojectisconsideredconsistentwithAB32.

ItisdifficulttoestimatewhatportionofnewGHGemissionsversusexistingdisplacedemissions.Displacedemissionsarethosethatarecreatedandemittedelsewherepriortoprojectimplementation,whereasnewGHGemissionsarethosethatdonotandwouldnotexistwithoutimplementationoftheproject,creatingatrueincrementalincreaseinemissions.Thisprojectwouldprovidehousingtoaccommodatetheprojectedincrease in demand for housingwithin the region. Thosewhowould occupy the new residences alreadygenerateGHGemissionsthroughtheircurrentactivitieselsewhere,andanynetincreaseinsuchemissionswiththeirrelocationtothesitewoulddependonthenatureoftheircurrentactivities,suchasthedistanceoftheircommute,theenergydemandassociatedwiththeircurrentresidences,andotherfactors.Accordingly,it is conservatively assumed that all project‐relatedoperational emissionsarenew. Assumingall project‐related operational emissions are new is a conservative approach that likely overstates to someundeterminableextenttheamountofanytruly“new”emissions.

TheprojectisdesignedwithanumberoffeaturesthatareconsistentwiththefollowingCityofLosAngelesgoals:25

Improvingenergyandwaterefficiencyinbuildings

Reducingwaterpercapitawateruse;and

Increasingrecyclingratesto70percentby2015,andeventually“zerowaste”

The following planned City actions, as presented in the LA Green Plan, when implemented, may furtherdecreaseemissionsofGHGsfromtheproposedproject:

Decreasing emissions from Department of Water and Power electrical generation and importactivities;

Providingcompactfluorescentlight(CFL)bulbstoencourageacceptanceanduseofCFLs;and

ExpandingtheregionalrailnetworktoreduceVMT.

25 GreenLA,AnActionPlantoLeadtheNationinFightingGlobalWarming,CityofLosAngeles,May2007.



Inaddition,theprojectisdesignedwithanumberof“SmartGrowth”featureswhichareconsistentwiththefollowingCityofLosAngelesgoals:

Increasingtheuseofenergyefficientappliancesandequipment;

Promotinghigh‐densityhousingclosetomasstransportationandemploymentcenters;and

Creatingwalkableneighborhoods.

Specific project features will further reduce GHG emissions. As discussed above, the project would beconstructed inamannerconsistentwithaUSGBC’sLEEDTMprogram,withbuildingefficiencymeasures toreduceenergy consumption, andwater savingmeasures. Theeffectiveness in reducingGHGemissionsofeachoftheprojectfeaturesvaries.Highperformancewindowscanreduceenergydemandforheatingandcoolingbyover20percentperyear.26Treesplantedontheprojectsiteaspartoftheplannedlandscapingare able to sequestermore carbondioxideas theyageand theaverage tree can sequester330poundsofcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphereeveryyear.Aheatislandeffectmitigatingroofcaneitherbepaintedacolorthatreflectsmuchofthesun’sheat,suchaswhite,orbea“greenroof,”alsoknownasalivingroof.Theproject’sverticallandscapingontheancillarybuildingwouldalsocontributetothisaffect.Alivingroofcanreduceairtemperaturesandreducetheneedforheatingandcoolingwithinthebuilding. ReducingwaterconsumptionresultsinareductionofGHGemissionsfromenergygenerationtooperatewaterpumpsandwastewatertreatmentfacilities,whichhavebeenidentifiedasmajorsourcesofGHGsstatewide. Lowflowfaucets and showers use up to 50 percent lesswater than their counterparts, while low flow toilets useapproximately 70 percent less water than traditional toilets.27 Notably, such reductions in GHGsconservativelyarenotreflectedinthereductionsofGHGemissionsfromBAUlevelsshowninTableIV.E‐2,above. Accordingly,actualprojectemissionslikelyare lowerthanrepresentedhereinandthebreakfromBAUlikelyisgreater.

Asmentionedabove,theprojectcontainsseveralGHG‐reducingdesignfeaturesconsistentwiththeLAGreenPlanandtheCity’sGreenBuildingOrdinance.However,asofJune2011,theCityofLosAngeleshasnotyetdevelopedaGreenhouseGasReductionPlanthatmeetstherequirementsset forthinthelatestOPRCEQAGuidelines. Theprojectwill employprojectdesign features that are intended to achieve the standardsofLEEDTMcertification,resultinGHGemissionsconsistentwithAB32reductiontargets,andincorporatewaterconservation,energyconservation, tree‐planting, andother featuresconsistentwithCALGreenregulationsandtheLAGreenPlan.Therefore,theproposedprojectwouldnotconflictwithanyapplicableplan,policy,orregulationtoreduceGHGemissions.

4. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS

Unlikethecumulativeanalysesformanytopicsthataddressthecombinedimpactsofaproposedprojectinaddition to related projects in a project area, global climate change is affected by a larger range ofdevelopmentactivityAlthoughtheStaterequiresMetropolitanPlanningOrganizationsandotherplanningagenciestoconsiderhowregion‐wideplanningdecisionscanimpactglobalclimatechange,thereiscurrently

26 EfficientWindows Collaborative, Annual Energy Use byWindow Type in Los Angeles, CA. http://www.efficientwindows.org/

city_all.cfm?new=N&prodtype=WN&id=4.27 EnergyEfficientRehabAdvisor,LowFlowFixtures,July2004.http://rehabadvisor.pathnet.org/sp.asp?id=9414.



noestablishednon‐speculativemethod toassess the cumulative impactofproposed independentprivate‐partydevelopmentprojects.

Although AB 32 sets a state‐wide target for 2020 GHG emissions which equates to approximately 28.4percentbelowstate‐wideBAUemissions,theScopingplanandotherimplementingtoolsofthelawareclearthat thereductionsarenotexpected tooccuruniformly fromall sourcesorsectors. CARBhasset targetsspecific to the transportation sector, for example, and under SB 375 SCAGmust incorporate these GHG‐reduction goals into the next Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and demonstrate that its SustainableCommunities Strategies (or alternative planning strategy) is consistentwith the Regional Housing NeedsAssessment(RHNA).OneofthegoalsofthisprocessistoensurethattheeffortsofState,regionalandlocalplanning agencies accommodate the contemporaneous increase in population and employment with adecreaseinoverallGHGemissions.Forexample,adoptingzoningdesignationsthatreducedensityinareaswhichareexpectedtoexperiencegrowthinpopulationandhousingneedsisseenasinconsistentwithanti‐sprawl goals of sustainable planning. Although development under a reduced density scenario results inlowerGHGemissionsfromtheuseofthatlandcomparedtowhatiscurrentlyorhypotheticallyallowed(e.g.,bycreatingfewerunitsandfewerattributablevehicletrips),totalregionalGHGemissionswilllikelyfailtodecreaseatthedesiredrateor,worse,increaseifregionalhousingandemploymentneedsofanareaaremetwith a larger number of less‐intensive development projects. Therefore, it is not simply a cumulativeincreaseinregionaldevelopmentortheresultantGHGemissionsthatthreatensGHGreductiongoals.

The land‐usesectorcanaccommodategrowthandstillbeconsistentwithState‐wideplans toreduceGHGemissions. To that end, various agencies are required to develop programs to guide future building andtransportationdevelopmenttowardsminimizedresourceconsumptionandloweredresultantpollution.Asdiscussed above, the City of Los Angeles has developed its Green Building Ordinance and the State’sCALGreenstandardsarenowmandatory. However, thespecificoptionsapplicable toandchosenbyeachindividualprojectdeveloper, and theirefficacy in reducingGHGemissions, varywidely. It shouldalsobenotedthatSCAGisnotexpectedtocompleteitsSustainableCommunitiesStrategyuntilMay2012.

Asindicatedabove,thereexistnumerousoptionsforprojectdeveloperstoreducetheircontributiontocity‐,county‐, and State‐wide GHG emissions, while helping to meet the region’s future housing, jobs, andinfrastructure needs. It is expected that other private development projects would include measures toreduceGHGemissionsincompliancewithapplicablepolicies.Further,inadditiontoprojectspecificitems,thereareCALGreenrequirementsthatapplytoallprojects;andpoliciesthataddresslargerscalestrategiessuchasreducingGHGemissionsfromautomobiles,useofalternativefuels,performancestandardsforpowerplants,etc.

It isnotpossibleatthistimetoaccuratelyquantifyGHGemissionsexpectedfromrelatedprojectsorallofthe GHG reductions anticipated from the above‐discussed strategies. Because of the complex physical,chemical andatmosphericmechanisms involved inglobal climate change, there isnobasis for concludingthatanemissionsincreaseresultingfromtheprojectandrelatedprojectscouldactuallycauseameasurableincreaseinglobalGHGemissionssufficienttoforceglobalclimatechange.

Asindicatedabove,theproposedprojectwouldbeconsistentwithStateandCitygoals,andresultinaGHGemissionprofile that reducesemissions34.6percentascompared toBAU,exceeding theAB32reductiontargetof28.5percentreductionby2020. Theprojectwould includenumerousprojectdesign features to



reduceGHGemissions,mostnotablytheproject’sadditionofahighdensityhousingprojectwithinCenturyCityandwithinSCAG’s2%StrategyOpportunityAreathatdefinesareasforhighdensity,mixed‐use,transitadjacent development so as to contribute to reductions of GHG emissions. The projectwould place highdensity housing within walking distance of employment, commercial/service, and entertainmentopportunities. In addition, the project design includes numerous design/LEED certification features toreduce emissions, aswell as features that address strategies included inCalGreen, andLAGreenPlan forreducingGHGemissions. Therefore, theproject’scontributiontocumulativeGHGemissionswouldnotbecumulativelyconsiderable,andtheproject’scumulativeimpactswouldbelessthansignificant.

5. MITIGATION MEASURES

ConstructionandoperationalGHGemissionsfromtheproposedprojectwouldmeetAB32reductiontargets.Inaddition,theprojectwouldbeconsistentwiththeLAGreenPlanandtheGreenBuildingOrdinance.Withimplementationoftheproposedprojectdesignfeatures,projectconstructionandoperationwouldresultinlessthansignificantimpacts.Nomitigationmeasuresarerequired.

6. LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE AFTER MITIGATION

As indicated above, the project would not have significant impacts on GHG emissions, and nomitigationmeasureswouldberequired.

iv.e greenhouse gas emissions - los...

Documents