iwrss & fusion team brief missouri basin river forecasters’ meeting thursday , february 21,...
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IWRSS & Fusion Team Brief Missouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting Thursday , February 21, 2013 Noreen Schwein Deputy Chief for Hydrologic Services NWS Central Region. Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
IWRSS & Fusion Team BriefMissouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Noreen Schwein
Deputy Chief for Hydrologic Services
NWS Central Region
Goal – Meet the challenge of future water resources through “an innovative partnership of federal agencies with
complimentary operational missions in water science, observation, prediction and management.” USACE-USGS-NWS MOU signed May 2011 ~ 26 potential federal agencies
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)
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Gap
Functional Requirement
Low Flow RiverForecasting
Recalibrate existing models and incorporate newmodels and techniques
Complex RiverForecasting
Higher caliber forecasting tools for advanced andcomplex hydrologic conditions (e.g. levee breaches, ice jams)
Knowledge of UncertaintyIn River Forecasting
Improved ensemble forecasts and diagnostic verification
Dynamic FloodInundation Mapping
Routine generation of high resolution dynamic inundation maps
River Observing System
A robust, secure and sufficient river gauge network with additional river gauges in critical locations
Surface ObservingSystems
Sufficient spatially optimized surface observations of key water variables
Remote ObservingSystems
Incorporation of existing observations and support for advancing new systems for water
IWRSS Working Together to Address the Nation’s Growing Needs for
Water Information
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Gap
Functional Requirement
Water Resource ProductSuite
High space-time gridded water analyses and forecasts from summit-to-sea for all major water budget variables across all necessary lead times
Operational Support
24x7 operational support to sustain expanded water resources services
Shared Vision
Synthesis, coordination and integration of a sharedvision of operations, services and service delivery across participating organizations
Interoperability/Workflow
Coordinated workflow and interoperability acrossmultiple geographic scales, organizational boundaries and institutional systems
IWRSS Working Together to Address the Nation’s Growing Needs
for Water Information
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Gap
Functional Requirement
Geo Intelligence and Common Operating Picture
Shared data services for pre-processing,surveillance and geo-intelligence products and geospatial data sets through standard data and web services in support of a trans-agency common operating picture
Archival of RFC/Partner data
Archive of data, products and services from NWS RFCs and other federal partners
Subject Matter Expertise
Sufficient subject matter expertise to support the fullgamut of advanced summit-to-sea water resources science and technology.
Water ForecastingProving Ground
Multi-agency test bed to develop and test newscience, test system interoperability, facilitate transition of research to operations and conduct retrospective studies
Consortium led by tri-agency Governance Board◦ USACE- James Dalton, NOAA/NWS - Don Cline, USGS - Jerad Bales
Two teams are chartered◦ Data Interoperability◦ Flood Inundation Mapping
Two teams are developing◦ Water Modeling◦ Geo-Intelligence
Team Membership - 2 members from each agency supported by individual agency advisory teams
IWRSS
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The NWC will integrate and combine the capabilities of multiple federal water partners to expand and improve river and flood forecasting, enhance water resource management, accelerate the application of research to real world uses and provide a single portal for water resources information.
The NWC is part of NOAA’s commitment to creating a Weather-Ready Nation
IWRSS – National Water Center
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
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Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather.
Where the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, economy, and homeland security.
Decision Support Services◦ Use local relationships with Core Partners to
help them to better prepare our communities for extraordinary events
◦ Provide information that is more impact-based◦ Provide forecasts that quantify confidence ◦ Provide enhanced web displays
Building a Weather-Ready Nation
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Mission: Work collaboratively to “improve the accuracy and utility of river/rainfall observations and river forecasts.”
Chairman Chuck Shadie, USACE/MVD
Advisory Committee
Dave Busse, USACE/MVS Bob Holmes, USGS Nat’l Flood Coordinator
Noreen Schwein, NWS/Central Region
Technical Members
Joan Stemler, USACE/MVS Tracy Clark, NWS/Sourthern Region
Jim Stiman, USACE/MVR George McKillop, NWS/Eastern Region
Kevin Grode, USACE/NWD Pedro Restrepo, NWS/NCRFC
Brian Astifan, USACE/LRD Trent Schade, NWS/OHRFC
Jeff Graschel, NWS/LMRFC Kevin Low, NWS/MBRFC
Shane Barks, USGS/MO WSC George Arcement, USGS/LA WSC
Jerry Butch, USGS/NY WSC
Fusion Team
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Fusion Team Focus AreasAction Teams address highest priority interagency topics
Communication, Coordination, Collaboration
Data accuracy and accessibility Technical forecast improvements Cross-agency training and operations River forecast verification/performance Other issues
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Continued emphasis on coordination/collaboration◦ Unified federal message through intricate coordination
of NWS inflow forecasts, USACE reservoir outflow projections, and USGS flow measurements
NWS Chat enhancement implemented◦ “All Chats” chatroom can be used to monitor all rooms at once as
well as to send a message to particular chatroom(s) Develop a one-stop shop for river gage metadata and
contact information Developed 28-day forecast website for mid-lower
Mississippi Implemented extranet site for tri-agency resources
Communication/Coordination/Collaboration2012 Accomplishments
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Fusion Team Gage Map
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http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwo/gagemap/gagemap11.html
28-day Forecast Web Site
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Post 2011 flood◦ Per MVD request, in July 2012, the NWS RFCs
developed a 28-day contingency guidance product that incorporated 16 days of model QPF for the Mississippi and Lower Missouri and Ohio Rivers (kept internal due to low confidence)
Enhanced Forecast Coordination
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Courtesy USACE/MVD
Tri-Agency Extranet (internal web site)
https://onecorps.usace.army.mil/sites/CoPs/EC/HHC/Fusion/default.aspx
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Issue – Initializing flow values often differed among the 3 agencies and resulted in less accurate forecasts downstream◦ Rating Curve Action Team finalized process to
coordinate beginning flow used in USACE/NWS forecasts
◦ USACE/NWS goal to be within 2% of each other based on similar range used by USGS in their measurements noted as “good” with rating within 2-5% of measurement
Data and Forecast Accuracy2012 Accomplishments
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Implemented USACE-NWS collaborated hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) for Upper Mississippi & Illinois rivers (NCRFC & USACE/MVR)◦ Implementation at MVR dependent on implementation of
the Corps of Engineers Water Management System (CWMS)
NCRFC working with MVP on Red River of the North
Note for interagency but not related to theFusion Team: MBRFC collaborated with USACE Kansas City
District to develop HEC-RAS for the Missouri
Technical Forecast ImprovementsHydraulic Models
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2009-2010 performance metrics at St. Louis indicated improvement in collaborated forecasts delivered to public
Action team ◦ Developed process to review specific events and
annual trends◦ 2012 will be first annual report◦ Will also have the following years for trend
analysis:
Verification/Performance Metrics
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Data◦ NWS had incorrect FAQ regarding the source of
AHPS Real-time Observational Data…was corrected through Fusion Team
◦ USGS quickly implemented policy regarding changes in river gage datums to allow enough time for NWS to effect needed changes
◦ USACE updated source of NWS forecast values to be the more real time, xml data
Outreach◦ Fusion Team ASCE publication, “Flood Risk Awareness
during the 2011 Floods in the Central United States: Showcasing the Importance of Hydrologic Data and Interagency Collaboration”
Other Issues
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Address interagency flood assessment recommendations Be resource to IWRSS FIM and Data Interoperability
teams Continue to analyze forecast accuracy through metrics Expand use of Interagency Extranet site containing
information to support interagency operations.◦ Email Jule Bartels, [email protected], for access to
extranet Share Fusion Team Best Practices in other interagency
forums across the country (tri-agency, Silver Jackets, etc) Continue cross-agency training including real time
simulation training exercises
Fusion Team – Path Forwardhttp://mvs-wc.mvs.usace.army.mil/fusion/fusion.htm
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