J N MUTEMI

University of Nairobi

&

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre

Geneva, 8-10 May 2012

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX)

OWNERSHIP OF THORPEX BY REGIONAL CENTRES AND NMHSs.

E. Africa Regional Centre: ICPAC & NMHSs

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•ICPAC was started as a project in 1989

•It became a specialized Institution of the IGAD •In 2003.

• ICPAC, as a WMO regional climate Centre (RCC) is now providing mandatory climate services and tasks for the 11 Countries of the Greater Horn of Africa, where the 11th member state is the New Republic of Southern Sudan.

Of the current 11 member, 9 are full NMHSs.

?? To what extend do the E.A/GHA NMHSs know about the potential benefit of THORPEX in improving their services. To what extend is THORPEX known as of practical helper of the individual NMHSs in the other sub-regions of Africa?If within the remaining 2 years, THORPEX is to make a contribution, there should be an effort to make more known THORPEX resources directly to NMHSs and IMTRs. 

Regional centre’s and NMHSs can network inCarrying out regional and country scale diagnosis of synoptic and local scale features/ processes that are pre-cursors to high impact weather events.

“This activity has potential to improve operational attributes of synoptic models which in turn translates to skill improvement in operational forecasting”.

In Eastern Africa including the whole of GHA, Let each country in the region carry out THORPEX case study. For E.A. case study should be current torrential rainfall and consequent adverse impacts in Kenya, Mid-April to 1st Week of May 2012 is good case study, impacts are fresh in the minds and records!  Some NMHSs have NWP divisions (Most do not have). For nearly all in E.A, NWP models and/or NWP products are used directly as acquired from modelling centre/ developer. While it is possible that a given NWP model can be flexible enough for use over any geographical domain, meteorologically, this is too simplistic for realistic performance. At the minimum, NWP models should be tested with some case studies, senstivity testing and adjustment of key processes done to suite particular conditions. This is generally a research issue that the IMTR divisions of NMHSs, Regional Centres and universities can take up effectively.

What we need here is recommendations for Regional Centres and NMHSs that can be feasibly implemented within the time line of THORPEX (within the remaining 2-years??)

•For all sub-regions of Africa, each NMH is fully informed on the potential value of using THORPEX products in diagnosis and verification of High-Impact weather events. Probably THORPEX committee can propose/ or generate an easy to do verification procedure/template for various sets of such events.

•Each Regional Climate Centre (RCC) and each NMH carry out at least one case study using THORPEX model ensembles alongside country observations. Individual case study results can be shared across Africa (THORPEX can facilitate this sharing).

•Each RCC and NMHS can then provide practical experience and feed back.

THANKS TO WMO & THORPEX OFFICE FOR CHANCE

TO CONTRIBUTE TO THORPEX