Jack KainHazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings

Jack KainHazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings

Science InfusionScience Infusion

1

NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

- A unique forum for collaboration between researchers and practitioners…

Two Main Program Areas…

Experimental

Warning

Program

Experimental

Forecast

Program

2

JDOP

Pre-STORM

NEXRAD IOT&E II VORTEX

Early algorithms DOPLIGHT MAPS,

COPS,

QED,

Pre-AWIPS

WDSS

AWIPS

WDSS II,JPOL,

COMET,IHOP,

Dual Pol, TIMEX, STEPS,PAR,

SHAVE, ProbWarn

Late ’70s 1985 1989 1994-95 1996 1997 2001 +

Establishing the “Culture of Collaboration” A glance at pioneering Collaborative Projects between NSSL

and WFO-OUN…the incipient EWP branch of the HWT

3

1997 2000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 2005

Winter Winter Weather Weather

ExperimentExperiment

Winter Winter Weather Weather

ExperimentExperimentConvection-

Allowing WRF model

forecasts

Convection-Allowing

WRF model forecasts

Convection-Allowing

ensembles

Convection-Allowing

ensembles

Mesoscale EnsemblesMesoscale Ensembles

IHOP IHOP forecasting forecasting

supportsupport

IHOP IHOP forecasting forecasting

supportsupport

Convective Convective parameterizationparameterization

Convective Convective parameterizationparameterization

2007 - 2008

SPC Arrives…Spring Experiments begin…

2006SE SE SE SESE

Arrival of the SPC…Arrival of the SPC…Arrival of the SPC…Arrival of the SPC…

Spring Experiments…Spring Experiments…Spring Experiments…Spring Experiments…

The EFP branch of the HWTThe EFP branch of the HWTThe EFP branch of the HWTThe EFP branch of the HWT

4

The annual Spring Experiment• A 6-8 week experiment conducted each spring to

evaluate emerging scientific concepts and tools in a simulated operational forecasting environment

……Scenes from SE2008…Scenes from SE2008…

5

6

HWT-EFP Spring Experiment 2007 Participating Institutions:

NOAA Agencies Universities

- NCEP/AWC (2) - NWS/OUN - Albany-SUNY (2) - NCEP/EMC (3) - NWS/RAP - Arizona (2) - NCEP/HPC - NWS/SLC - Colorado State - NCEP/SPC (9) - NWS/SRH - Iowa State - NWS/BTV - OAR/NSSL (5) - North Carolina State (4) - NWS/LWX - OAR/GSD (3) - Oklahoma (2) - NWS/MAF - OAR/PSD - Penn State - NWS/OCWWS - Purdue (2)

- UNC-Charlotte - York (Ontario)

Gov’t Agencies

- NCAR (5) - Environ. Canada (6) - UK Met Office - USRA (Huntsville)

Private Sector- Merrill Lynch - FirstEnergy

6

:

What do Forecasters need?

Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion…

7

Perform research, communicate results…

:

Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion…

8

:

Transfer technology…

NCEP operational forecast NSSL parallel experimental forecast

e.g.,

Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion…

9

Establishing a “grass-roots” infusion paradigm…

Publish results… At least 24 NSSL-SPC co-authored, refereed publications since 2000

10

Tangible Operational ImpactsTangible Operational Impacts

Tornadic Supercells

Isolated cells ahead of the main line

WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity

“The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster

15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak

11

Questions??

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2007

2008

12