jackson son & co - lri - sep 30, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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Issue Date: 30/09/2011
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We want to encourage you to take an active role in theprice assessment process and help us to ensure that
the price assessments become increasingly accurateand robust. Have your say. Don’t be let out. You cancall us or email us with the inormation that you wouldlike us to take into account.
We will continue to develop our list o priceassessments and our methodology, listening careullyto the participants in the rice industry in order to keep
them relevant to the international rice market. Updateswill be published in our report and on our website.
We hope that this will become a useul and reliableresource or the industry.
IntroductionWelcome to the new “Live Rice Index” Report
produced by Jackson Son & Co (London) Ltd. Thisreport will be published weekly and will include marketcommentary and our weekly price assessments.
We are also developing a new website that will beavailable soon. We expect it to become a valuableresource or up to date inormation and historical data,
catering to all sectors o the industry rom armers tothe point o sale.
All our price assessments will be determined in line
with the “LRI Methodology” with particular attentionto those that we have chosen to be benchmarks,marked with this symbol: For more inormation on
our benchmarks and assessment principles pleasereer to our methodology statement available on ournew web site:
www.livericeindex.com
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B
Report Date: //
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THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
100% Grade B 5 $620
5% Broken 5 $600
10% Broken 5 $595
15% Broken 5 $590
25% Broken 5 $560 A1 Super Broken 0 $490
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New 5 $1,090
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old 0 n/a
Hom Mali White Rice A1 Super 0 $540
Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B 25 $950
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX -15 $610
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% -15 $600
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX -15 $605
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% -15 $595
PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
IRRI-6 5% Broken -5 $480
IRRI-6 10% Broken -5 $475
IRRI-6 15% Broken 0 $470
IRRI-6 25% Broken 0 $440
386 2% Broken 0 n/aBroken Rice -15 $400
VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE
Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New -10 $680
Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old 0 n/a
PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE
IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $495
IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 15% Broken STX -5 $480
IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken 0 n/a
PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE
385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a
D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a
Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,020
Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,035
INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
IR 64 5% Broken -5 $480
IR 64 25% Broken -5 $435
PR 106 5% Broken - n/a
PR 106 25% Broken - n/a
1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken - n/a
INDIA - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE
Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,060
Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $950Traditional Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $950
Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $940
Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $900
Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $825
1121 White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,120
1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $960
INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE
IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 $470
PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 n/a
U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE
U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $660
U.S. #3, 15% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $633
U.S. #5, 20% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $600
U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken 0 $710
U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) 0 $375Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice 0 $390
Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice 0 $350
U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE
U.S. #1, 4% Broken 0 $790
U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield 0 $490
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE(FOB FCL)
CHANGE PRICE
Uruguayan 5% Broken 0 $560
Argentine 5% Broken 0 $560
Brazilian 5% Broken -10 $575
Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens) -10 $440
EGYPT - WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
Medium Grain #2 6% Broken - n/a
Medium Grain #3 12% Broken - n/a
Round Grain #2 6% Broken - n/a
Round Grain #3 12% Broken - n/a
Broken Rice Grade 0 10 $450
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE(FOB FCL)
CHANGE PRICE
Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $610
Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 10 $610
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE CHANGE PRICE
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken -40 $885
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) -140 $985
White Glutinous Broken Rice A1 0 $790
VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
5% Broken 13 $568
10% Broken 10 $560
15% Broken 10 $545
25% Broken 5 $510
Broken Rice 15 $465
Live Rice Index
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B
B
B
B
B
B = INDICATES BENCHMARK
B
Report Date: //
B
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The Indonesian tender at the beginning o
the week was supportive or prices but when
Bulog have not conrmed any purchases rom
Thailand, Thai white rice prices returned to a
level closer to that at which they ended the
previous week. Thai oers in the Indonesian
tender were between US $653 - $680 PMT
basis CFR.
White rice prices remain high, with armers
in no rush to sell as they preer to wait and
receive a better price rom the Government
once their rice buying scheme gets underway.
Thai 100% Grade B has settled at US $620 PMT
FOB, with 5% broken white rice standing at
US $600 PMT. Fragrant prices are also rm
and increases have been seen in Pathumthaniand Hom Mali varieties. Pathumthani is now
oered at US $950 and rising on account o
recent ood losses and Hom Mali is oered
at US $1,090 PMT. Prices or glutinous rice
have sotened this week to US $885 PMT or
10% broken. Parboiled prices are soter on
account o the competition aced rom other
exporting origins.
Experts are suggesting that the rice pledging
scheme could potentially end up costing
the Thai Government a staggering Baht 400billion in the rst year alone. The scheme
is one o the most controversial o the new
Government’s implemented policies and
threatens to eectively price the country out
o the rice market or the time being.
CURRENCY THB
1 USD $ 31.08
INVERSE 0.032
Thailand
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Report Date: //
The country has reduced its orecast or
output rom this year’s main harvest by 2.4%
ollowing the ooding which damaged areas
o armland. Production is now expected to
reach 24.5 million MTS paddy, compared to an
earlier prediction o 25.1 million MTS.
Export Statistics:
Unofcial Thai rice exports rom the
12th o September to the 18th o
September 2011 were 176,227 MTS,
excluding ragrant rice.
Exports o white and glutinous rice
rom 1st o January to the 18th o
September 2011 totalled 8,610,872
MTS. This is an increase o 51.6%
rom the same period last year.
Source: Thai Rice Exporters.
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
100% Grade B 5 $620
5% Broken 5 $600
10% Broken 5 $595
15% Broken 5 $590
25% Broken 5 $560
A1 Super Broken 0 $490
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New 5 $1,090
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old 0 n/aHom Mali White Rice A1 Super 0 $540
Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B 25 $950
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX -15 $610
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% -15 $600
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX -15 $605
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% -15 $595
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE CHANGE PRICE
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken -40 $885
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) -140 $985
White Glutinous Broken Rice A1 0 $790
B
B
B
B
B
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Vietnamese prices are rising steadily, with
5% broken white rice being quoted at US
$568 PMT on an FOB basis and 25% broken
standing at US $510 PMT. Substantial
quantities o 15% broken have been shipped
recently to Cuba, Russia, Bangladesh and East
Timor as well as Indonesia, who purchased
400,000 MTS o 15% white rice. This has
tightened the availabilty o broken rice. Four
Vietnamese companies made oers to Bulog
or a total o 120,000 MTS at US $606 PMT;
however purchases are yet to take place.
Fragrant rice is slightly soter this week,
oered at US $680 PMT basis FOB.
CURRENCY VND
1 USD $ 20,830.00
INVERSE 0.000048
Export Statistics:
From the 1st o January to the 22nd o
September 2011, Vietnam shipped 5.670
million MTS.
Shipments rom the 1st o September to the
22nd o September 2011 reached 352,581 MTS.
Source: VFA
Vietnam
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Pakistan
The recent oods have caused a lot o
timing issues and uncertainty or millers
and exporters. The crop in lower Sindh has
suered signicant losses o about 300,000
MTS o paddy this year’s oods with almost
all o the rice grown in Badin has been
completely wiped out. Recently, urther
rains have caused damage to the crops
that are still standing in the elds. Whilst
these losses should be oset by strong
production in upper Sindh and the Punjab
region, or the time being the eect o
these losses is being elt in the market. The
harvest in upper Sindh is not set to com-
mence until mid-October and arrivals rom
Punjab have been slowed by the adverse
weather. In lower Sindh, most o the har-vested rice, which has survived the oods,
needs to be dried out beore it is suitable
or milling and ultimately export. Aside
rom the inevitably high moisture content,
the quality o the crop is very encouraging
with early reports suggesting good colou-
ration and low damage to kernels.
CURRENCY PKR
1 USD $ 87.37
INVERSE 0.0114
Report Date: //
Recent reports have suggested that there
there is a danger that Vietnam could lose
approximately 300,000 hectares o its rice
elds in the next decade to urbanisation i a
Government plan is approved by the country’s
National Assembly in October. The news is a
major concern or a nation in which 70% o its
population earns a living in agriculture.
Export Statistics:Pakistan’s Non-Basmati rice exports rom
the 19th o September to to the 25th o
September amounted to 18,832 MTS, worth
US $9,348,896.
Exports o Basmati rice or the same period
totalled 19,129 MTS worth US $17,885,430.
Consequently, obtaining rice or export
is proving problematic which has some
exporters quoting FOB prices or IRRI-6 5%
white rice at and above the US $500 PMT
level. Those that do have the better quality
rice in their hands are pricing the market
closer to US $480, maintaining competitive
levels with their neighbours in India. De-
mand or exports is coming rom traditional
markets in the Middle East and East Arica.
25% broken white rice is now oered at
levels o around US $440 PMT and 100%
broken rice is priced at US $400 PMT on an
FOB basis.
VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE
Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New -10 $680
Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old 0 n/a
VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
5% Broken 13 $568
10% Broken 10 $560
15% Broken 10 $545
25% Broken 5 $510
Broken Rice 15 $465
B
PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
IRRI-6 5% Broken -5 $480
IRRI-6 10% Broken -5 $475
IRRI-6 15% Broken 0 $470
IRRI-6 25% Broken 0 $440
386 2% Broken 0 n/a
Broken Rice -15 $400
PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE
IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $495
IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 15% Broken STX -5 $480
IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken 0 n/a
PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE
385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a
D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a
Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,020
Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,035
B
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USA
The market in the South remains rm,
supported by strong domestic demand
and export sales o milled and paddy rice
to traditional destinations such as Haiti, ElSalvador and Mexico. The recent Iraqi ten-
der was unsuccessul or U.S. rice as the
Iraqi Grain Board purchased 30,000 MTS
o long grain white rice rom India. In the
domestic market, a change in program
requirements or the Kansas City Com-
modity Ofce has meant that the recent
tender or 3,800 MTS o #2/7 parboiled
long grain milled rice has been cancelled,
at least or now.
The harvest is all but nished in Louisianaand Texas and Louisiana has recorded
record rice yields, averaging 6,400 pounds
per acre, ar surpassing the previous record
o 6,300 pounds per acre. The challenges
that the crop has aced this year make this
record even more impressive as armers had
to deal with saltwater intrusion and hot,
dry weather. The good eld yields should
go some way to osetting the lost acreage
because only 413,000 acres were planted in
Louisiana this year as opposed to 530,000
acres in 2010, although the milling yields
o the later harvested rice have dropped
signicantly. The harvest is progressing well
enough in Mississippi, Missouri and Arkan-
Export Statistics:
For the period September 16th - 22nd, Net saleso 32,900 MTS were up rom the previous week.
Major buyers were:
Mexico 7,700 MTS
El Salvador 6,300 MTS
Japan 5,500 MTS
Canada 2,900 MTS
Saudi Arabia 3,000 MTS.
Exports or the same period reached 23,600 MTS
and were mainly to:
Guatemala 4,900 MTS
Mexico 4,000 MTS
Canada 2,900 MTS
El Salvador 2,800 MTS
Jordan 2,600 MTS
Source: USDA
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Page 06
sas but there are growing concerns or the
late planted rice, which is still maturing in
the elds as the cold weather approaches.
In Caliornia, the harvest is gaining momen-
tum and early reports o yields are positive.
As the harvest o this large crop progresses,
it is certainly sotening the tone o the
market. The USDA has estimated a crop size
o 588,000 acres and strong yields could see
a total production o just below 2.5 million
MTS. In addition to the new crop, there are
a number o bearish actors or the coming
year in the international market, such as
strong anticipated crops in Australia, Egypt
and Southern Europe. With only 6% o thecrop harvested so ar, the mills are yet to
release their pricing or the new crop. For
the time being the paddy market is very
quiet and the undertone o the market is
sot. In terms o new milled business, South
Korea has announced another tender to buy
10,000 MTS o U.S. #1 medium grain rice and
2,747 MTS o U.S. #3 medium grain rice.
Report Date: //
U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE
U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $660
U.S. #3, 15% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $633
U.S. #5, 20% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $600
U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken 0 $710
U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) 0 $375
Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice 0 $390
Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice 0 $350
U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE
U.S. #1, 4% Broken 0 $790
U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield 0 $490
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The Mercosur countries are expected to
export a combined estimate 3 million MTS
this year, with the Brazilian Government
this week announcing plans to subsidisethe growth o an additional 3.7 million MTS
o paddy or export as well as animal eed.
All South American particpants missed
out in the recent Iraqi tender (see page 08
or urther details) so the market is a little
soter. FOB prices or milled long grain 5%
broken white rice stand at US $560 PMT
or Argentine and Uruguayan varieties and
US $575 PMT or Brazilian. Parboiled prices
have sotened in Brazil on account o the
competition that they now ace rom India.
Peru particularly have signicantly
increased their imports this year, with
gures o white rice coming into the
country between the months o March and
August reaching 100,000 MTS, an increase
o 300% in comparison to the same period
last year. The majority o these have come
rom Uruguay, although only 56% has
come rom there this year compared to a
95% market share in 2010. Average prices
o the Uruguayan exports were valued
at approximately US $570 PMT on a FOB
basis.
CURRENCY BRL ARS UYU
1 USD $ 1.841 4.201 19.75
In India, IR 64 5% broken white rice is
presently priced at US $480 PMT on an
FOB basis and IR 64 25% broken white
rice is oered at US $435 PMT. Expor tersare struggling to get their hands on good
quality IR 64 5% broken white rice and it
is not until the new crop arrives in mid-
October that we will see exports o higher
quality rice really pick up. The harvest o
this year’s crop is set to be a bumper one,
with around 102 million MTS o paddy
anticipated. This will increase the quality
available within rice stocks, but also serve
to exacerbate the Government’s storage
problems. IR 64 parboiled rice is priced at
the competitive level o US $470 PMT basis
FOB, which should attract potential buyers
away rom other origins.
Many armers within the state o Andhra
Pradesh have reportedly had to leave
part o their rice-growing land allow this
year because o an unviable minimum
support price currently available to them.
Escalating production costs as well as a
shortage o labour has been stated to be
reasons or the armers’ decision, with a
large number o labourers needed during
the paddy transplantation especially.Some rice growers are already switching
to horticultural crops which are not
so labour intensive, however this has
not been possible or wet land owners
within the Konaseema and Karamchedu
regions whose land is only suitable or the
production o paddy.
India
CURRENCY INR
1 USD $ 47.47
INVERSE 0.0211
South America
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Report Date: //
Reports rom Ecuador suggest that
80,000 MTS o rice has been stored by the
Government or two years at an estimated
value o US $40 million. The Minister o
Agriculture, Staynley Vera, has indicated
that the rice needs to be sold very soon in
order to ree up storage space and create
revenue to produce the next harvest.
A presentation in Buenos Aires this
week outlined the strategic plans o
the Argentine Ministry o Agriculture,
Livestock and Fishing or the next decade.
The plans aim to increase grain production
to more than 160 million MTS annually,
which would represent a growth o 60%.
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITERICE (FOB FCL)
CHANGE PRICE
Uruguayan 5% Broken 0 $560
Argentine 5% Broken 0 $560Brazilian 5% Broken -10 $575
Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens) -10 $440
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILEDRICE (FOB FCL)
CHANGE PRICE
Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $610
Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 10 $610
INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE
IR 64 5% Broken -5 $480
IR 64 25% Broken -5 $435
PR 106 5% Broken - n/aPR 106 25% Broken - n/a
1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken - n/a
INDIA - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE
Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,060
Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $950
Tr ad iti ona l P ar boi led Mi lle d B as ma ti Ri ce 2% 0 $9 50
Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $940
Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $900
Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $825
1121 White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,120
1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $960
INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE
IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 $470
PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 n/a
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The Rest O The World
The Philippines
The Philippines’ rice harvest is expected to grow in the
third quarter o the year in comparison the same periodlast year. Farmers harvested . million MTS o paddy in
the rst hal o , representing a . increase rom
the . million MTS that was achieved in . The coun-
try’s winter rice crop is anticipated to be approximately
bigger this year than last, with . million MTS paddy
basis expected to be harvested. The country is ambitiously
aiming or its imports to not exceed , MTS as it
continues to maximise local production output.
Cambodia The Cambodian Government’s intention to increase ex-
ports could be thwarted ater armers indicated that they
could raise their prices ater the Thai rice-pledging scheme
begins. There are currently no restrictions on exporting
paddy to Thailand or Vietnam and border trade is very
common. Certainly, at the moment, paddy is in thin supply
but this situation will change when the new harvest arrives
in mid-October. Then, millers and exporters will essentially
have to compete with the Thai Government or paddy.
Iraq
The Grain Board o Iraq this week purchased approximately
, MTS o long grain milled broken white rice rom
India, priced at around US PMT basis CFR. This was
ollowing the tender that the country issued on the th o
September.
Ghana
In order to promote the consumption and patronage
o locally produced rice, the National Food Company(NAFCO) is to invest in the purchase o modern rice
mills with the intention o maximising local production.
NAFCO is reportedly working closely with the Ghana-
ian Government to boost the consumption o locally
produced rice within the country. The Government is to
distribute the locally produced rice or use in schools
as it has a higher nutritional value than that o imported
rice.
JapanJapanese Government ofcials have said that they will
be carrying out radiation tests on a wider geographical
area ollowing the discovery o the rst case o radio-
active rice, ound near Nihonmatsu city, kilometres
northwest o the Fukushima nuclear plant. The rice
had a radioactive caesium level o Becquerel’s per
kilogram, which is more than twice the Becquerel’s
per kilogram accepted by the country’s Government.
Radiation inspection areas will now be expanded to
dierent areas. The highest level o radiation that had
been ound previously in the rice crop was Bec-
querel’s per kilogram.
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Report Date: //
Europe
The high temperatures, low rains and warm nights that
have been seen all over Europe during September havebeen very avourable to the European rice crop. Harvest-
ing has begun in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal and
Bulgaria but on average only has so ar been cut. New
varieties o Indica crop are surprisingly being harvested
at the same time as the Japonica ones, despite having a
shorter maturity time. Prices or paddy lie between € -
€ PMT or Round grain as well as Indica. Japonica varie-
ties range between € - € PMT, excluding Risotto
types.
IndonesiaBulog held a tender on th inviting oers o up to ,
MTS o Thai and Vietnamese white rice, with a maxi-
mum o , MTS Vietnamese and , MTS Thai per
oer valid or days. Oers were received rom Vietnam
at US PMT and Thailand ranging rom US PMT to
about US PMT. Although nothing have been awarded
we understand that Bulog have rejected the oers rom
Thailand or being too high and as a reaction to their
conrmation that the Thai Public Warehouse Organisa-
tion (PWO) will not be delivering against their contract or
,MTS o broken at a price o about US PMT
C&F shipment through September to December.
Perhaps we should not be surprised that Bulog have now
indicated that they may be open to uture imports rom
India and Pakistan, having overcome their initial reluctance
which was based on concerns o reliability. An Indian del-
egation is expected in Jakarta next week.
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