james j. heckman university of chicago
TRANSCRIPT
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Many major economic and social problems such as crime, teenage pregnancy, dropping out of high school and adverse health conditions can be traced to low levels of skill and ability in society.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Need to recognize the multiplicity of abilities.
Current public policy discussions focus on promoting and measuring cognitive ability through IQ and achievement tests.
For example, in the U.S. the accountability standards in the No Child Left Behind Act concentrate attention on achievementtest scores, not evaluating a range of other factors that promote success in school and life.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Cognitive abilities are important determinants of socioeconomic success.
So are socioemotional skills, physical and mental health, perseverance, attention, motivation, and self confidence.
They contribute to performance in society at large and even help determine scores on the tests that are used to monitor cognitive achievement.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Ability gaps — cognitive and noncognitive — between the advantaged and disadvantaged open up early in the lives of children.
Family environments of young children are major predictors of cognitive and socioemotional abilities, as well as crime, health and obesity.
This observation is a major source of concern because family environments in the U.S. the U.K. and Ireland and many other countries around the world have deteriorated over the past 40 years.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Experimental evidence on the effectiveness of early interventions in disadvantaged families is consistent in a positive way with a large body of non-experimental evidence that adverse family environments, especially adverse parenting, substantially impair child outcomes.
If society intervenes early enough, it can raise cognitive and socioemotional abilities and the health of disadvantaged children.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Socioemotional abilities are malleable, and neglected in most cognitively oriented intervention studies.
Early interventions promote schooling, reduce crime, foster workforce productivity and reduce teenage pregnancy.
These interventions are estimated to have high benefit-cost ratios and rates of return.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
As programs are currently configured, early interventions have much higher economic returns than later interventions focused on promoting cognitive factors such as reduced pupil-teacher ratios, public job training, convict rehabilitation programs, adult literacy programs, tuition subsidies or expenditure on police.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Life cycle skill formation is dynamic in nature. Skill begets skill; motivation begets motivation. If a child is not motivated and stimulated to learn and engage early on in life, the more likely it is that when the child becomes an adult, it will fail in social and economic life.
The longer society waits to intervene in the life cycle of a disadvantaged child, the more costly it is to remediate disadvantage. Similar dynamics are at work in creating child health and mental health.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
A major refocus of policy is required to understand the life cycle of skill and health formation and the importance of the early years in creating inequality in America, and in producing skills for the workforce.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Schooling attainment rates.
The U.S. high school dropout rate is increasing.
More youth going to college.
This trend is masked by official statistics.
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Figure 1: True Dropout Rate vs. NCES Status Dropout Rate, Males and Females 1968 – 2000
30%
26
22
18
14
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
10
True Dropout Rate (Inc. GEDs)
NCES Dropout Rate (Exc. GEDs)
Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2007).
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
High school graduation as a source of growth in educational attainment diminishes and turns negative for more recent cohorts of Americans.
The decline in high school graduation rates since 1970 (for cohorts born after 1950) has flattened college attendance and completion rates as well as growth in the skill level of the U.S. workforce.
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Annual growth in labor productivity is slowed by 0.17 to 0.35 percent per year by the trends that reduce the growth of labor force quality.
America will produce less than half of the growth in college graduates than it produced in the previous 20 years despite the growth in the size of the total population.
Level of skill in the U.S. population is low.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Table 2: Educational Characteristics of the Labor Force Aged 25 and Over, 1980, 2000, 2020
Source: Ellwood (2001).
Education
Less than High School
High School Only
Some Schooling Beyond
High School
College Degree or More
Total
% with College Degree
Labor Force1980
Growth1980 – 2000
Labor Force2000
Growth2000 – 2020
Labor Forcein 2020
17.3
31.5
—
13.8
17.3
79.8
21.6%
-5.3
6.3
—
19.1
18.5
38.7
12.0
37.8
—
32.9
35.8
118.5
30.2%
0.9
3.8
—
6.2
7.7
18.6
12.9
41.6
—
39.1
43.5
137.1
31.7%
*Assumes that subsequent cohorts have same education at age 25 as the cohort age 25 in 2000.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Figure 7: Percentage of Each Gender Who Perform At Level 1 on the IALS Document Literacy Scale
Note: The scale scores were grouped into five levels of increasing difficulty, with Level 1 representing functional illiteracy. Levels 4 and 5 were combined. The sample is restricted to adults who are between 16 and 65 years of age at the time of the survey (1994 for the U.S.and Germany, 1996 for the U.K., and 1994 –1995 for Sweden). Standard errors are calculated using the methodology described in the International Adult Literacy Survey Microdata User's Guide (2002).
40
30
20
10
0
FemalesMales
USA England
Prop
ortio
n
Germany Sweden USA England Germany Sweden
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
What forces produce these low levels and adverse trends?
Are the public schools mainly responsible?
Can we look to school reform to fix the problem?
Are higher college tuition costs to blame?
The answer is “No” to all of these questions.
Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Contrary to prevailing views, accounting for the ability of a child at the age college decisions are made, tuition costs and schooling quality explain a trivial fraction of the gaps in educational attainment by socioeconomic status.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Importance of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills
The Importance of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
An emerging body of evidence shows that, as is intuitively obvious and commonsensical, much more than smarts are required.
– Motivation– Sociability; ability to work with others– Attention– Self Regulation– Self Esteem– Time Preference– Health and Mental Health
The Importance of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
The GED program is a second chance program given to secondary school dropouts.
Participation in the GED program is growing. Currently 20% of U.S. high school “graduates” are dropouts who exam certify.
The Importance of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
GEDs are required to pass a test of cognitive abilities.
Level relatively low — at the grade 8 to grade 10 level.
Test is successful in its own terms.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Density of Age Adjusted AFQT Scores, GED Recipients and High School Graduates with Twelve Years of Schooling35
30
25
15
5
20
10
0
GEDsHigh School Graduates
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 00.5 1 1.5 2.52 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2.52
White Males White Females
Source: Heckman, Hsee and Rubinstein (2001)
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Density of Age Adjusted AFQT Scores, GED Recipients and High School Graduates with Twelve Years of Schooling40
35
30
25
15
5
20
10
0
GEDsHigh School Graduates
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 00 0.5 1 1.5 2.52 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2.52
Black Males Black Females
Source: Heckman, Hsee and Rubinstein (2001)
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
.15
.05
.10
.00
NoncognitiveCognitive
0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100
Prob
abili
ty
Percentile
Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability.
Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, By Ability (Males)
Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Probability of Being Single With Children (Females)
.10
.08
.04
.06
.02
NoncognitiveCognitive
0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100
Prob
abili
ty
Percentile
Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability.
Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Probability of Being a 4-year College Graduate by Age 30 (Males)
Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws).
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101
By Decile of Cognitive Factor By Decile of Noncognitive FactorPr
obab
ility
and
Con
fiden
ce In
terv
al (
2.5
– 97
.5%
)
Decile
Argument
Polarization
Skills
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Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
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Summary
Mean Log Wages by Age 30 (Males)
2 4 6 8 10
1.0
1.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
0.5
0.0
2 4 6 8 10
By Decile of Cognitive Factor By Decile of Noncognitive FactorLo
g W
ages
and
Con
fiden
ce In
terv
al (
2.75
– 9
7.5%
)
Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (50 draws).
Decile
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
Polarization
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Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Controlling for ability measured at age 18, minorities are more likely to attend college than others despite their lower family incomes (Cameron and Heckman, 2001).
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Can ability differences explain racial-ethnic schooling gaps?
Source: Cameron and Heckman (2001)
High School Completion Gap
White-Black White-Hispanic Gap Gap
Actual White-Minority Gap .06 (.01) .14 (.02)
Ability Adjusted Gap -.14 (.03) -.12 (.04)
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Can ability differences explain racial-ethnic schooling gaps?
College Entry Probabilities Given High School Completion
White-Black White-Hispanic Gap Gap
Actual White-Minority Gap .11 (.02) .07 (.02)
Ability Adjusted Gap -.14 (.02) -.14 (.04)
Source: Cameron and Heckman (2001)
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Gaps in the abilities that play such an important role in determining diverse adult labor market and health outcomes open up early across income groups.
Argument
Polarization
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Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Trend in Mean Cognitive Score by Maternal Education
Source: Brooks-Gunn et al. (2006).
High School Graduate
Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random.
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-0.5
Some College EducationCollege Graduate
Less than High School
3 5 8 18
Mea
n Co
gniti
ve S
core
Age in Years
Argument
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Summary
Figure D1a. Average Percentile Rank on PIAT-Math Score, by Income Quartile
Third Income Quartile
65
40
45
55
50
60
35
Second Income Quartile Lowest Income Quartile
Highest Income Quartile
6 Yrs 12 Yrs
Scor
e Pe
rcen
tile
8 Yrs 10 Yrs
Age
Argument
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Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
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Summary
Figure D1b. Adjusted Average PIAT-Math Score Percentiles, by Income Quartile
Third Income Quartile
65
40
45
55
50
60
35
Second Income Quartile Lowest Income Quartile
Highest Income Quartile
6 Yrs 12 Yrs
Scor
e Pe
rcen
tile
8 Yrs 10 Yrs
*Residualized on maternal education, maternal AFQT (corrected for the effect of schooling) and broken home at each age.
Age
Argument
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Explanations
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Summary
Figure D3a. Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Behavior Score, by Income Quartile
Third Income Quartile
55
30
35
45
40
50
25
20
Second Income Quartile Lowest Income Quartile
Highest Income Quartile
4 Yrs 6 Yrs 12 Yrs
Scor
e Pe
rcen
tile
8 Yrs 10 Yrs
Age
Argument
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Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Figure D3b. Adjusted Average Anti-Social Behavior Score Percentile, by Income Quartile
Third Income Quartile
55
30
35
45
40
50
60
25
20
Second Income Quartile Lowest Income Quartile
Highest Income Quartile
4 Yrs 6 Yrs 12 Yrs
Scor
e Pe
rcen
tile
8 Yrs 10 Yrs
*Residualized on maternal education, maternal AFQT (corrected for the effect of schooling) and broken home at each age.
Age
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
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Explanations
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Summary
Gaps also emerge in health. These appear to diverge with age, at least in the U.S.
Similar gaps by age in the U.S., Canada, and United Kingdom
Argument
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Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
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Summary
Ages 9 – 12
2.25
1.25
1.75
1.50
2.00
2.50
1.00
Ages 4 – 8Ages 0 – 3
Ages 13 – 17
8 9 11
Hea
lth S
tatu
s*
10
*(Scale ranges from 1 = Excellent to 5 = Poor)
LN (Family Income)
Health and Income For Children and Adults, U.S. National Health Interview Survey 1986 – 1995*
* From Case, A., Lubotsky, D. & Paxson, C. (2002), American Economic Review, Vol. 92, 1308 – 1334.
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
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Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills of children have counterparts in gaps in family investments and environments.
Argument
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Summary
0.05
Intact
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.04
0.00
BrokenSingle Mom
-2 -1.5 -.5-1 21.5.5 10
Den
sity
Cognitive Stimulation
Males
Cognitive Stimulation: Age 0 – 2, White, by Family Type
Source: Seong Hyeok Moon (2008) analysis of CNLSY data
Argument
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Summary
0.05
Intact
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.04
0.00
BrokenSingle Mom
-2 -1.5 -.5-1 21.5.5 10
Den
sity
Cognitive Stimulation
0.06 Females
Cognitive Stimulation: Age 10 – 11, White, by Family Type
Source: Seong Hyeok Moon (2008) analysis of CNLSY data
Argument
Polarization
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Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
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Summary
Explanations
Argument
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Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Family Environments
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Summary
10
15
35%
20
25
30
5
0
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 061968 70 7472 76 78 80 82 84 86
Perc
enta
ge o
f Chi
ldre
n U
nder
18
in S
ingl
e Pa
rent
Fam
ilies
Married, Spouse AbsentWidowedNever Married
Divorced
Percent of Children Under 18 Living with One Parent, By Marital Status of Single Parent
Argument
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Summary
10
20
30
40
50%
1970 1980 1990 20001960
Per
cent
age
High EducationMiddle EducationLow Education
0
Note: Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse.
Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000
Source: PUMS (1960 – 2000).
Argument
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Summary
Mothers’ Speech and Child Vocabulary
Source: Huttenlocher et al. (1991)
400
200
600
800
16 20 24 2612 18 2214
Voca
bula
ry S
ize
(Wor
ds)
Low Level of Mothers’ Speech to Their InfantsMedium Level of Mothers’ Speech to Their InfantsHigh Level of Mothers’ Speech to Their Infants
0
Age in Months
Argument
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Summary
Gene- Environment Interactions
Argument
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Summary
Source: Fraga, Ballestar et. al. (2005)
3-year-old twins 50-year-old twins
Methylation Patterns in Young and Old Twins
Argument
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Summary
Examples of How Genes are Triggered by Environments
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Summary
Childhood MaltreatmentAge 3 –11 in Dunedin Cohort
Source: Moffitt, “Gene-Environment Interaction in Problematic and Successful Aging,” NIA Meeting Feb 12, 2008.
Maternal Rejection (14%)
Harsh Discipline (10%)
Caregiver Changes (6%)
Physical Abuse (4%)
Sexual Abuse (12%)
No Probable
≥2
Definite
None 1 type
Argument
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Summary
Male Conduct Disorder: Child Maltreatment Interacts with MAOA Genotype
Caspi, McClay et al. (2002).
Low MAOA activity
40
20
60
80
100%
Mild SevereLow
% C
ondu
ct D
isor
der
High MAOA Activity Low MAOA Activity
0
Child Maltreatment
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Summary
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Argument
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Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Sensitive and critical periods have been documented extensively for:
– Binocular vision in the cortex of mammals,– Filial imprinting in the forebrain of ducks
and chickens,– Language acquisition in humans
(Newport, 2002)
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Argument
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Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Sensitive and critical periods have been documented extensively for (continued):
– Early vitamin/nutrient deficiencies can have substantial lasting negative effects on human development.
– E.g., Iron; Vitamin A; Iodine– Blindness, Impaired IQ, etc.– Difficult to remediate at later ages
Critical and Sensitive Periods
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Critical and Sensitive Periods
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Summary
Enriched Early Environments Compensate In Part For the Risks Arising from Disadvantaged Environments
– Main mechanism of intervention arises from noncognitive or personality investments.
Argument
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Summary
High/Scope Perry Preschool Program
High/Scope Perry Preschool Program
Argument
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Critical and Sensitive Periods
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Summary
The Perry preschool program enriched the lives of low income black children with initial IQs below 85 at age 3.– 2.5 hours per day– 5 days per week– 2 years during each school year
(mid-October to May)– Home visits– Program stops after two years
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Perry Preschool Program: IQ, By Age and Treatment Group
Source: Perry Preschool Program. IQ measured on the Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale (Terman & Merrill, 1960). Test was administered at program entry and each of the ages indicated.
90
85
80
95
100
5 7 9 10Entry 6 84
IQ
Control GroupTreatment Group
75
Age
High/Scope Perry Preschool Program
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Summary
Yet has a statistically significant rate of return of around 7 – 10% per annum — for both boys and girls — above the post World War II stock market returns to equity in U.S. labor marketestimated to be 5.8%.
Argument
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Summary
Perry Age 14 Total CAT Scores, by Treatment Group
Source: Heckman, Malofeeva, Pinto, and Savelyev (2008).
20 400 60 80
40
30
20
10
20 400 60 80 100% 100%
Control Treatment
0
Num
ber
of S
ubje
cts
CAT = California Achievement TestTreatment: N = 49; Control: N = 46Statistically Significant Effect for Males and Females (p-values 0.009, 0.021 respectively)
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Later Remediation is Costly and Often Ineffective
Later Remediation is Costly and Often Ineffective
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Summary
As currently implemented, most adolescent remediation efforts, especially those targeted toward raising adolescent cognitive abilities targeted toward the disadvantaged have low returns.
Later Remediation is Costly and Often Ineffective
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Summary
For example:– Active labor market programs– Class size reductions (reducing class size
by five pupils per classroom)– Adult literacy programs– Public job training programs– Tuition reduction policy
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Summary
Circuits
Circuits
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Summary
Data from non-controlled assessments of Head Start and the Chicago Child-Parent Centers programs suggest similar conclusions.
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Summary
The Abecedarian Program
The Abecedarian Program
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Summary
Intervening at an early enough age can actually raise the IQ of the participants.
In the more intensive, earlier starting Abecedarian program, IQ gains were found.
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Summary
Abecedarian Program: IQ, by Age and Treatment Group
Source: Barnett (2004).
90
85
80
95
100
15 21128 96 7 10 11 13 14 16 17 18 19 20
IQ
Control GroupTreatment Group
75
Age
The Abecedarian Program
Argument
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Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Several observations about the evidence from the available intervention studies are relevant.
First, skills beget skills.
All capabilities are built on a foundation of capacities that are developed earlier.
The Abecedarian Program
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
This principle stems from two characteristics that are intrinsic to the nature of learning:– Early learning confers value on acquired
skills, which leads to self-reinforcing motivation to learn more,
and– Early mastery of a range of cognitive, social,
and emotional competencies makes learning at later ages more efficient and therefore easier and more likely to continue.
The Abecedarian Program
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Second, early intervention lowers the cost of later investment.
Public job training programs, adult literacy services, prisoner rehabilitation programs, and education programs for disadvantaged adults at current levels of expenditure producelow economic returns.
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Figure 19: Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested
0–3 4–5 School Post-school
Preschool programs
Programs targeted towards the earliest years
Job training
Schooling
Rat
e of
Ret
urn
to In
vest
men
t in
Hum
an C
apita
l
Returns Per Annum to a Unit Dollar Invested
Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2007).
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Summary
Summary
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Skills matter.
America has a skills problem. So do many other countries. Rising inequality is a signal of this problem.
American society is becoming polarized by education:– More college graduates– More dropouts
Summary
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
More than smarts is required for success.
Social policy overemphasizes smarts.
Soft skills have been documented to be “hard” — we can measure them, and they are predictive.
Skill gaps emerge early and can be traced in part to adverse early environments.
Summary
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Circuits
Summary
Schools and tuition do not matter as much as is often thought.
Late remediation not very effective.
Remediation can work, but is costly.
Social policy should be directed toward the malleable early years, if we want to successfully address these problems.