january 2013 harrisonburg & rockingham county real estate...

28
An analysis of real estate acvity through December 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report Custom-built home w/ full stone exterior in private locaon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9186BlackRockRoad.com JANUARY 2013

Upload: others

Post on 10-Oct-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

An analysis of real estate activity through December 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

Custom-built home w/ full stone exterior in private location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9186BlackRockRoad.com

JANUARY 2013

Page 2: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Executive Summary

Pace of Home Sales: December56 homes sold in December 2012, showing a 29% deline over December 2011 when 79 homes sold -- and a 12% increase from December 2010 when 64 homes sold. Home Values: DecemberMedian sales prices increased 5.94% and average sales prices decreased 3.83% when comparing December 2012 to December 2011. Days on Market: DecemberHomes sold in an average of 213 days in December 2012, a 3% increase from 206 days in December 2011 and an 8% increase from the 198 day average in December 2010.

Editorial Note: In November 2012, a single buyer purchased 22 University Place condominiums for $33K/condo from a single seller. These 22 sales were entered into the HRAR MLS as 22 separate transactions instead of as one multi-family or commercial transaction. While entering this single transaction as 22 separate sales is misleading, and skews our understanding of trends in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market, these 22 sales are included in the analysis in this housing market report as of this issue.

The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.

Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date864 homes during 2012. This is a 8.8% increase from 2012 when 794 homes had sold, and a 14% increase as compared to 2010 when 758 homes sold during the entire year. Home Values: Year to DateMedian sales prices increased 0.57% and average sales prices declined 0.81% when comparing 2012 values to 2011. Days on Market: Year to DateThe length of time on the market for homes selling in 2012 (218 days) increased 3% since 2011 when the average was 208 days on the market.

Buyer Activity69 buyers committed to buy in December 2012, compared to 56 in December 2011 -- which is a 23% increase.

Single Family Home Sales641 single family homes sold in 2012, compared to a total of 622 in 2011. The median sales price has increased to $196,000. Townhouse Sales223 townhouses sold in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 169 townhomes. The median townhome sales price has declined to $134,995 in 2012 from $144,000 in 2011.

Foreclosures252 trustee deeds were recorded in 2012 compared to 864 home sales reported through the HRAR MLS.

InventoryInventory levels declined during December 2012 to 572 residential properties currently for sale, down from 619 one month ago, and down from 672 one year ago.

SupplyAll price ranges still show an excess of housing supply, with 7 months under $200k, 8 months between $200k and $300k, 8 months between 300k and $400k, and 33 months above $400k. Price Per Square FootMedian price per square foot of single family homes has increased to $108/sf in the 4th quarter of 2012, as compared to $102/sf in the 3rd quarter of 2012.

Lot Sales61 lots of less than an acre sold in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 60 lots. Median lot sales prices have risen to $56,875 from $54,500 during 2011.

Land Sales47 parcels of land greater than an acre sold in 2012 compared to 47 land sales during all of 2011. The median price per acre has decreased to $14,981 in 2012.

Page 3: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Home Sales Increased, Prices Stable. With a full year of data in and accounted for, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market showed an overall 9% increase in the pace of sales as compared to 2011, and a modest 1% increase in median sales prices. After many years of declining sales price, it is a

welcome sight to finally see more buyers in the market. In fact, there were more home buyers in 2012 than any of the previous three years. If December’s median sales price (up 6% between Dec 2011 and Dec 2012) is any indication, we may finally also start to see modest increases in home values in 2013.

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County January 9, 2013

# Home Sales 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)

December 69 64 79 56 -29.11%

Year-To-Date 818 758 794 864 8.82%

Median Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)

December $165,000 $167,333 $169,900 $180,000 5.94%

Year-To-Date $186,000 $180,000 $174,000 $175,000 0.57%

Average Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)

December $187,006 $199,878 $187,406 $194,578 3.83%

Year-To-Date $214,115 $208,990 $195,068 $193,484 -0.81%

Average Days on Market 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)

December 187 198 206 213 3.40%

Year-To-Date 188 195 208 218 4.81%

HOME SALES REPORT

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 4: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Sales stronger in the City, Prices stronger in the County. The data tables above explores overall sales trends of properties in the City of Harrisonburg as compared to Rockingham County. Don’t mind the drastic swings when only comparing one month of data, as the sample size is quite small -- pay more attention to the YTD

changes in the metrics noted above. For example, the County has seen an increase (+6.28%) in year-to-date median sales price over the past year, while the City has seen a decline (-4.20%) in the same metric. The rate of increase in sales, however, is stronger in the City (+22.18%) as compared to the County (+2.08%).

# Home Sales 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change

December 19 19 0.00% 60 37 -38.33%

Year-To-Date 266 325 22.18% 528 539 2.08%

Median Sales Price 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change

December $165,000 $179,000 8.48% $171,450 $199,000 16.07%

Year-To-Date $164,413 $157,500 -4.20% $180,250 $191,565 6.28%

Average Days on Market 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change

December 184 233 26.63% 213 203 -4.69%

Year-To-Date 217 225 3.69% 204 213 4.41%

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREACity of Harrisonburg

City of Harrisonburg

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Rockingham County

Rockingham County

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 5: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Sales strong in 2012, though not very predictable. There were several months in 2012 that showed great gains over the same month during 2011, such as February (+21%), July (+22%), October (+34%) and November (+64%) --- and then there are months such as December, where sales fell 29% as compared to last January. The

good news is that the year, overall, shows an 8.8% improvement over 2011. Of note, the high sales count in November was related to 22 low price rental properties purchased by a single buyer from a single seller.

37

53

57

51

75

86

95

77

71

62

84

69

45

5349

83

71

117

52

62

55

49

58

64

4038

61

78

68

81

7779 79

5658

79

39

46

66

7377

84

9492

67

75

95

56

0

25

50

75

100

125

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Sing

le F

amily

, Tow

nhom

e &

Con

do S

ales

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 2009

2010

2011

2012

December 201256 Home Sales

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 6: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Contracts up 23% YOY in December 2012. After a slow month of contract writing during November, buyers got back to work in December, with 69 signed contracts reflected per MLS data. This marks a 23% improvement over last December, and a startling high as compared to any of the previous three Decembers. When looking

at buyer activity as an annualized rate, there has been a 7% increase in buyer activity over the past year (1,022 up from 955) and a 25% increase between 2010 and 2012. This strong buyer activity in December suggests we will see a strong month of closings in January 2013.

45

59

48

95

121

84

54

74

60

74

51

60

40

62

69

75

104

88

104

84 86

67

84

76

5659

80

87

9693

102

90

100 98

90

58

69

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Dec-

09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec-

11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr-

12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug-

12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec-

12

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties

820 contracts 955 contracts 1,022 contracts

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 7: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

2012 finishes out strong, despite slow December sales. This graph shows the month by month cumulative count of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Last year’s home sales (794) exceeded 2010 home sales (758), and this year went even further with a total of 864 sales. It can again be seen here that there

are some strong months of home between March and August --- though the other months of the year don’t lag too far behind in contributing to the year’s overall sales.

45 40 39

98 78 85

147 139 151

230 217 224

301 285 301

418366 385

470443

479

532 522571

587 601638636 657713694

715

786758

794

864

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JUL

JUN

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

JAN

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 8: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Inventory levels continue to decline. The declines in median sales price seen over the past several years are partly due to the imbalance in the market between the number of sellers (too many) and the number of buyers (too few). With an increasing sales pace (see page 3) and inventory declining (see above) we are slowly

but steadily moving towards a more balanced market. We have now seen a 15% decline in inventory over the past 12 months, and an overall 27% decline over the past 24 months. We are likely to see inventory levels continue to taper off over the next several months.

787 778807

832865 870 872 882 877

846810

748

672 671 665

708733

751721 727

706 698

655619

572

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

-15%

Page 9: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Buyer activity increasing; home prices steady. This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After five years of declines in

home sales (2005-2010) the pace finally picked up in 2011 with a 4% year-over-year increase, and 2012 showed even stronger growth (+9%). Home values (as measured by median price) have also increased (slightly) this year to $175,000, up from last year’s median price of $174,000.

829

1,071

1,153

1,324

1,507

1,669

1,438

1,248

936

816758

794864

$116

,000

$122

,900

$122

,588

$127

,700 $1

49,0

00 $169

,900

$192

,983

$195

,100

$195

,500

$186

,000

$180

,000

$174

,000

$175

,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes

+14%

+11%-14%

-13%

-25%

+15%

+8%

+29%

+6%-0.3% +4%

+17%

+14%

+14%

+1% +0.2%

-13%

-5%

-7%

-3%

+4%

-3% +1%

+9%

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 10: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Increasing sales pace; stable sales prices. This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point is showing one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of

evaluating sales figures on a month-by-month basis. The annualized pace of home sales continues to climb (up to 864 now from 706 just 18 months ago) and median sales prices continue to stay steadily around $175,000 --- where they have been for almost two years now.

817

825

825

817 84

9

845 87

6

833

818

802

789

763

758

753

738

750

745

742

706 73

1

748 77

2

779

779

794

793

801

806

801

810

813

830

843

831 850 88

7

864

$186

,000

$186

,000

$185

,000

$185

,000

$185

,000

$184

,000

$183

,000

$183

,950

$181

,700

$178

,750

$178

,500

$179

,900

$180

,000

$180

,000

$180

,000

$179

,800

$175

,575

$175

,825

$174

,250

$175

,000

$175

,650

$176

,650

$175

,800

$175

,000

$174

,900

$174

,900

$174

,900

$173

,000

$175

,000

$175

,950

$175

,000

$175

,000

$175

,000

$175

,000

$175

,000

$173

,000

$175

,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

Annualized Home Sales

Annualized Median Sales Prices

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Growth!

Stability!

Page 11: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Prices of single family homes increase. The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be recovering quite nicely compared to the overall market. Last year, the pace of home sales in the single family home market increased by 12% -- nearing 2008 sales levels with 622 sales -- and with 641

single family home salles in 2012, we have seen an additional 3% increase in buyer activity. Median prices of single family homes have also increased over the past year, up 6% to $196,000.

674

868 851880

1,024 1,025

909

798

654

563 555

622 641

$122

,850

$133

,239

$136

,000

$147

,000 $1

70,0

00

$210

,000

$226

,800

$223

,575

$215

,000

$204

,500

$199

,600

$185

,500

$196

,000

-$25,000

$25,000

$75,000

$125,000

$175,000

$225,000

$275,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes

+16%

n/a-11%

-12%

-18%

+3%-2%

+29%

+9%+2%

+8%

+16%

+24%

+8%

-1%-4%

-14%

-5%

-1%

-2%

+12%

-7%

+3%

+6%

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 12: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Townhouse sales picking up pace (compared to last year). After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has finally rebounded. There was a sharp increase (+32%) in townhouse sales this year, which also includes duplexes and condos. This was, of

course, with a significant trade off on prices, which have continued to decline --- down 6% between 2011 and 2012. Hopefully with more buyers in the market (some of whom are investors) we will see townhouse prices starting to stabilize in 2013.

155

203

302

444

483

644

529

450

282

253

203

169

223

$89,

000

$94,

600

$103

,100

$108

,200 $1

18,5

00 $134

,950

$160

,850

$163

,800

$167

,250

$161

,875

$154

,500

$144

,000

$134

,995

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price TrendsDuplexes, Townhomes & Condos

+9%

+33%-18%

-15%

-37%+47%

+49%

+31%

+6%

+9%+5%

+10%

+14%

+19%

+2% +2%

-11%

-3%

-20%

-5%

-17%

-7%

+32%

-6%

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 13: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Foreclosures up (ever so slightly) from last year. The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The

red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show aup again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in 2012 is roughly the same as in 2011, as there were 3.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2011 and 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2012.

829

1,071

1,153

1,324

1,507

1,669

1,438

1,248

936

816758

794864

5691 63 75 70 86 93 97 118

177

270223 252

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales vs. Trustee SalesHome Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 14: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Recovery more evident in lower price ranges. The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two

years. Home sales under $200,000 have increased for the past year (and then some), as have sales between $200,000 and $300,000. The pace of home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 has been relatively steady, and the highest price range ($400,000 and up) has seen slower sales over the past two years.

38 3837

38 38 3736

37 3739 39 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41

42 4342

43

4544

16 16 16 16 15 1514 15

16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20

6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6

4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Post-Tax-Credit DeclineRecovery

Recovery

Page 15: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Big drop in inventory in lowest price segment. Inventory levels have declined across the board over the past two years, but the changes have been quite different based on list prices. The most significant change has been in homes under $200,000 -- just 12 months ago there were 339 such properties for sale, and today there are only

286 for sale -- this marks a 16% decline in inventory. These declines in inventory over the past two years are definitely making a difference in helping to return us to greater balance in the local housing market.

414 416

443 447457 452 451 454 451 444

433

399

339 343328

350 353 360 353370

357 355336

317

286

218208 208 216

230 232 232 236 229 221203

189180 185

194206 214 222

209 201 199 207187 185

171

85 89 86 8897 105 103 106 112

101 9989 81 77 79 77

87 91 84 77 75

64 60 50 5170 65 70

81 81 81 86 86 85 80 75 71 72 66 6475 79 78 75 79 75

72 72 67 64

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

-16%

Page 16: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Housing supply spikes in high price ranges. With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 33 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the

same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six months supply of housing to be a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, and it is remarkable to note that we are finally starting to approach that balance in all but the highest price range.

11 1112 12 12 12 13 12 12

12 1110

8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 98

7 7

13 13 1314

15 1517

16

1413

1211

10 10 1111 12 12

11 10 10 109 9

8

1516 16 16

1718

1718 18

17 17

16

14 13 14 13

15

1716

14 13

1110

8

8

2018

19

2526

25

29

26 26

25

23 24

2625

23

28

3331

3836

34 33

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Months of Housing Supply by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 17: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Buyers experiencing slightly less flexibility on pricing. This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an

average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Last year may have offered the most flexibility for buyers --- with homes selling at an average of 94.7% of their asing prices --- this metric now shows a (tiny) improvement to 94.8% of the asking price for home sales during 2012.

829

1,0711,153

1,324

1,507

1,669

1,438

1,248

936

816758 794

864

97.4%97.7% 97.8%

98.1%

99.1% 99.1% 98.9%

98.0%

96.9%96.2%

95.7%

94.7% 94.8%

84.0%

86.0%

88.0%

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

List Price to Sales Price Ratiowithin the context of Home Sales Pace

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 18: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Price per square foot showing possible signs of stability. In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over

the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Of late, however, the price per square foot has shown signs of stabilization.

$76

$73

$73

$73 $7

6$7

7$7

4 $78

$79

$80 $8

2 $84

$83 $8

6$8

7 $92

$90 $9

6 $99

$105

$105

$113 $1

19 $123 $1

26 $130

$131

$125 $1

29$1

28$1

27$1

26$1

25$1

26$1

21$1

15$1

16 $120

$117

$116

$107

$120

$108

$115

$101 $1

03$1

03$1

02$1

00 $106

$102

$108

$0.00

$25.00

$50.00

$75.00

$100.00

$125.00

$150.00

2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 19: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Prices edge up in all price ranges. Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of

larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($96/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($114/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.

$138$140

$133

$126$123

$111$114

$123 $123

$116 $117

$107$103

$105

$122$119

$115

$105

$112

$96 $96

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 20: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Lot sales (< 1 acre) stabilizing. While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized. We now see that there have been between 58 and 63 lot sales

(of less than an acre) for each of the past four years (2009-2012). The median sales price of these lots under one acre also appears to be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000.

165

201

261247

408

304

111

8574

58 63 60 61

$26,

000

$30,

500

$32,

208

$36,

900

$42,

000

$54,

500

$99,

900

$76,

500

$58,

300

$59,

900

$55,

000

$54,

500

$56,

875

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Lot Sales & Median Pricesless than 1 acre

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Stability

Page 21: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Many (many) lots for sale. Despite the fact that only 61 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2012, there are a remarkable 272 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($60,000) is only slightly higher than the 2012 median sales price of $56,875. Given

last year’s 61 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take 4.5 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012) median sales prices.

$0 - $40k30 listings

11%

$40k - $60k110 listings

40%$60k - $80k80 listings

29%

$80k - $100k35 listings

15%

$100k +17 listings

6%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventoryless than 1 acre

272 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $60,000

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 22: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Larger lot sales mostly stable between 2008 and 2012. Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2011 as compared to both 2010, but perhaps this was just continuing the trend of 42-53

lot sales per year seen between 2008 and 2012 (with the exception of 2010). The median price per acre of lots over 1 acre in size has fallen slightly over the past year to $14,981.

58

42

87

76

107

168

7783

53

42

27

49 47

$8,2

34

$8,2

45

$8,3

33 $9,5

35

$12,

003

$17,

713

$15,

000

$24,

184

$21,

250

$15,

424

$14,

552 $1

6,35

5

$14,

981

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre1 acre or more

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 23: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

High (really high) levels of lot inventory. Despite the fact that only 47 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2012, there are a remarkable 255 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 255 parcels

for sale is currently $20,556 per acre. Given last year’s 47 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 5.4 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.

$0 - $10k49 listings

19%

$10k - $20k77 listings

30%

$20k - $30k31 listings

12%

$30k - $40k28 listings

11%

$40k - $50k13 listings

5%

$50k - $100k30 listings

12%

$100k +27 listings

11%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory1 acre or more

255 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,556 / Acre

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 24: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

New home sales increasing, prices stable. New home builders experienced an increase in the pace of new home sales during 2011 and 2012 -- after a steady decline since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The median price per square foot has also

apparently stablized around $128/SF, down only slightly over the past two years. As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should continue to increase.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

89

138 137

121

140

186

158

139

109

84

4145

51

$87 $9

4 $99 $1

05 $114

$133

$150

$146

$144

$137

$130

$129

$128

0

50

100

150

200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

Page 25: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Days on market relatively low amongst many homes that actually slow. Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, nearly 1 out of 3 homes (32%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those

that close in the next 90 days and we find that an amazing 62% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.

0 - 3 months, 277, 32%

3 - 6 months, 257, 30%

6 - 9 months, 115, 13%

9 - 12 months, 75, 9%

1 - 2 years, 103, 12%

> 2 years, 37, 4%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis

Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months

Average Days On Market: 217

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

0 - 3 months, 168, 29%

3 - 6 months, 154, 27%

6 - 9 months, 85, 15%

9 - 12 months, 48, 9%

1 - 2 years, 76, 13%

> 2 years, 41, 7%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis

Active Listings

Average Days On Market: 247

Page 26: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Sales pace varies by price range. The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, 64% of homes that sold under $200K sold in the first six months of being on the

market, while only 47% of homes over $400,000 were able to sell in that same time period.

30%

27%

30%

34%

32%

17%

28%

30%

30%

30%

17%

16%

13%

13%

13%

9%

8%

11%

8%

9%

22%

14%

12%

11%

12%

4%

7%

5%

4%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

$400k and up

$300k - $400k

$200k - $300k

Under $200k

All Homes

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeProperties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years

Avg = 217

Avg = 205

Avg = 228

Avg = 249

Avg = 253

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Page 27: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Mortgage rates, unemployment levels continue to decline. As shown in the top graph above, home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages. After a brief spike in August 2012, average interest rates are now back to their pattern of breaking all-time historic lows, with a current average of

3.35%, up only slightly from last month’s 3.32%. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which dropped yet again in November, down to 5.2% --- the lowest level on record in the past two years.

4.93

%

5.03

%

4.99

%

4.97

%

5.10

%

4.89

%

4.74

%

4.56

%

4.43

%

4.35

%

4.23

%

4.30

% 4.71

%

4.76

%

4.95

%

4.86

%

4.78

%

4.60

%

4.51

%

4.55

%

4.22

%

4.01

%

4.10

%

3.98

%

3.95

%

3.98

%

3.95

%

3.99

%

3.88

%

3.75

%

3.66

%

3.49

%

3.59

%

3.40

%

3.41

%

3.32

%

3.35

%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest RateSource: Freddie Mac

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

6.1%

6.0%

6.4%

6.1% 6.2%

5.4%

5.8%

6.3%

6.1%

6.1%

6.1%

5.6%

5.3%

5.7%

5.6%

6.0%

5.8%

5.3%

5.9%

6.3% 6.

5%

5.9%

5.5%

5.3%

5.2%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

Unemployment RateNot Seasonally Adjusted

Page 28: JANUARY 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate ...harrisonburghousingmarket.com/files_documents... · Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date 864 homes during 2012. This is a

January 9, 2013

logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.

Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to sellers of luxury homes and builder/developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction.

Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

In both 2010 and 2011, Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

Local Online Real Estate Resources . . . .

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Searchhttp://www.ScottPRogers.com

Monthly Real Estate Market Reportshttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com

Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentaryhttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgTownhouses.com

New Home Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgNewHomes.com

Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgForeclosures.com

Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockinghamhttp://www.HarrisonburgREO.com

Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgShortSales.com

Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com

Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com

Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com

For more information, or with questions, contact:

SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker540-578-0102 (mobile)[email protected]

Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker