january 2013 harrisonburg & rockingham county real estate...
TRANSCRIPT
An analysis of real estate activity through December 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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JANUARY 2013
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
Executive Summary
Pace of Home Sales: December56 homes sold in December 2012, showing a 29% deline over December 2011 when 79 homes sold -- and a 12% increase from December 2010 when 64 homes sold. Home Values: DecemberMedian sales prices increased 5.94% and average sales prices decreased 3.83% when comparing December 2012 to December 2011. Days on Market: DecemberHomes sold in an average of 213 days in December 2012, a 3% increase from 206 days in December 2011 and an 8% increase from the 198 day average in December 2010.
Editorial Note: In November 2012, a single buyer purchased 22 University Place condominiums for $33K/condo from a single seller. These 22 sales were entered into the HRAR MLS as 22 separate transactions instead of as one multi-family or commercial transaction. While entering this single transaction as 22 separate sales is misleading, and skews our understanding of trends in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market, these 22 sales are included in the analysis in this housing market report as of this issue.
The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.
Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date864 homes during 2012. This is a 8.8% increase from 2012 when 794 homes had sold, and a 14% increase as compared to 2010 when 758 homes sold during the entire year. Home Values: Year to DateMedian sales prices increased 0.57% and average sales prices declined 0.81% when comparing 2012 values to 2011. Days on Market: Year to DateThe length of time on the market for homes selling in 2012 (218 days) increased 3% since 2011 when the average was 208 days on the market.
Buyer Activity69 buyers committed to buy in December 2012, compared to 56 in December 2011 -- which is a 23% increase.
Single Family Home Sales641 single family homes sold in 2012, compared to a total of 622 in 2011. The median sales price has increased to $196,000. Townhouse Sales223 townhouses sold in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 169 townhomes. The median townhome sales price has declined to $134,995 in 2012 from $144,000 in 2011.
Foreclosures252 trustee deeds were recorded in 2012 compared to 864 home sales reported through the HRAR MLS.
InventoryInventory levels declined during December 2012 to 572 residential properties currently for sale, down from 619 one month ago, and down from 672 one year ago.
SupplyAll price ranges still show an excess of housing supply, with 7 months under $200k, 8 months between $200k and $300k, 8 months between 300k and $400k, and 33 months above $400k. Price Per Square FootMedian price per square foot of single family homes has increased to $108/sf in the 4th quarter of 2012, as compared to $102/sf in the 3rd quarter of 2012.
Lot Sales61 lots of less than an acre sold in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 60 lots. Median lot sales prices have risen to $56,875 from $54,500 during 2011.
Land Sales47 parcels of land greater than an acre sold in 2012 compared to 47 land sales during all of 2011. The median price per acre has decreased to $14,981 in 2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Home Sales Increased, Prices Stable. With a full year of data in and accounted for, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market showed an overall 9% increase in the pace of sales as compared to 2011, and a modest 1% increase in median sales prices. After many years of declining sales price, it is a
welcome sight to finally see more buyers in the market. In fact, there were more home buyers in 2012 than any of the previous three years. If December’s median sales price (up 6% between Dec 2011 and Dec 2012) is any indication, we may finally also start to see modest increases in home values in 2013.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County January 9, 2013
# Home Sales 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
December 69 64 79 56 -29.11%
Year-To-Date 818 758 794 864 8.82%
Median Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
December $165,000 $167,333 $169,900 $180,000 5.94%
Year-To-Date $186,000 $180,000 $174,000 $175,000 0.57%
Average Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
December $187,006 $199,878 $187,406 $194,578 3.83%
Year-To-Date $214,115 $208,990 $195,068 $193,484 -0.81%
Average Days on Market 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
December 187 198 206 213 3.40%
Year-To-Date 188 195 208 218 4.81%
HOME SALES REPORT
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Sales stronger in the City, Prices stronger in the County. The data tables above explores overall sales trends of properties in the City of Harrisonburg as compared to Rockingham County. Don’t mind the drastic swings when only comparing one month of data, as the sample size is quite small -- pay more attention to the YTD
changes in the metrics noted above. For example, the County has seen an increase (+6.28%) in year-to-date median sales price over the past year, while the City has seen a decline (-4.20%) in the same metric. The rate of increase in sales, however, is stronger in the City (+22.18%) as compared to the County (+2.08%).
# Home Sales 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
December 19 19 0.00% 60 37 -38.33%
Year-To-Date 266 325 22.18% 528 539 2.08%
Median Sales Price 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
December $165,000 $179,000 8.48% $171,450 $199,000 16.07%
Year-To-Date $164,413 $157,500 -4.20% $180,250 $191,565 6.28%
Average Days on Market 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
December 184 233 26.63% 213 203 -4.69%
Year-To-Date 217 225 3.69% 204 213 4.41%
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREACity of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Sales strong in 2012, though not very predictable. There were several months in 2012 that showed great gains over the same month during 2011, such as February (+21%), July (+22%), October (+34%) and November (+64%) --- and then there are months such as December, where sales fell 29% as compared to last January. The
good news is that the year, overall, shows an 8.8% improvement over 2011. Of note, the high sales count in November was related to 22 low price rental properties purchased by a single buyer from a single seller.
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53
57
51
75
86
95
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71
62
84
69
45
5349
83
71
117
52
62
55
49
58
64
4038
61
78
68
81
7779 79
5658
79
39
46
66
7377
84
9492
67
75
95
56
0
25
50
75
100
125
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sing
le F
amily
, Tow
nhom
e &
Con
do S
ales
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 2009
2010
2011
2012
December 201256 Home Sales
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Contracts up 23% YOY in December 2012. After a slow month of contract writing during November, buyers got back to work in December, with 69 signed contracts reflected per MLS data. This marks a 23% improvement over last December, and a startling high as compared to any of the previous three Decembers. When looking
at buyer activity as an annualized rate, there has been a 7% increase in buyer activity over the past year (1,022 up from 955) and a 25% increase between 2010 and 2012. This strong buyer activity in December suggests we will see a strong month of closings in January 2013.
45
59
48
95
121
84
54
74
60
74
51
60
40
62
69
75
104
88
104
84 86
67
84
76
5659
80
87
9693
102
90
100 98
90
58
69
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dec-
09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec-
10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec-
11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr-
12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug-
12
Sep-
12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec-
12
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties
820 contracts 955 contracts 1,022 contracts
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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2012 finishes out strong, despite slow December sales. This graph shows the month by month cumulative count of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Last year’s home sales (794) exceeded 2010 home sales (758), and this year went even further with a total of 864 sales. It can again be seen here that there
are some strong months of home between March and August --- though the other months of the year don’t lag too far behind in contributing to the year’s overall sales.
45 40 39
98 78 85
147 139 151
230 217 224
301 285 301
418366 385
470443
479
532 522571
587 601638636 657713694
715
786758
794
864
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Inventory levels continue to decline. The declines in median sales price seen over the past several years are partly due to the imbalance in the market between the number of sellers (too many) and the number of buyers (too few). With an increasing sales pace (see page 3) and inventory declining (see above) we are slowly
but steadily moving towards a more balanced market. We have now seen a 15% decline in inventory over the past 12 months, and an overall 27% decline over the past 24 months. We are likely to see inventory levels continue to taper off over the next several months.
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832865 870 872 882 877
846810
748
672 671 665
708733
751721 727
706 698
655619
572
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
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1000
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
-15%
January 9, 2013
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Buyer activity increasing; home prices steady. This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After five years of declines in
home sales (2005-2010) the pace finally picked up in 2011 with a 4% year-over-year increase, and 2012 showed even stronger growth (+9%). Home values (as measured by median price) have also increased (slightly) this year to $175,000, up from last year’s median price of $174,000.
829
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
794864
$116
,000
$122
,900
$122
,588
$127
,700 $1
49,0
00 $169
,900
$192
,983
$195
,100
$195
,500
$186
,000
$180
,000
$174
,000
$175
,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes
+14%
+11%-14%
-13%
-25%
+15%
+8%
+29%
+6%-0.3% +4%
+17%
+14%
+14%
+1% +0.2%
-13%
-5%
-7%
-3%
+4%
-3% +1%
+9%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Increasing sales pace; stable sales prices. This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point is showing one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of
evaluating sales figures on a month-by-month basis. The annualized pace of home sales continues to climb (up to 864 now from 706 just 18 months ago) and median sales prices continue to stay steadily around $175,000 --- where they have been for almost two years now.
817
825
825
817 84
9
845 87
6
833
818
802
789
763
758
753
738
750
745
742
706 73
1
748 77
2
779
779
794
793
801
806
801
810
813
830
843
831 850 88
7
864
$186
,000
$186
,000
$185
,000
$185
,000
$185
,000
$184
,000
$183
,000
$183
,950
$181
,700
$178
,750
$178
,500
$179
,900
$180
,000
$180
,000
$180
,000
$179
,800
$175
,575
$175
,825
$174
,250
$175
,000
$175
,650
$176
,650
$175
,800
$175
,000
$174
,900
$174
,900
$174
,900
$173
,000
$175
,000
$175
,950
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$173
,000
$175
,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
Annualized Home Sales
Annualized Median Sales Prices
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
Growth!
Stability!
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Prices of single family homes increase. The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be recovering quite nicely compared to the overall market. Last year, the pace of home sales in the single family home market increased by 12% -- nearing 2008 sales levels with 622 sales -- and with 641
single family home salles in 2012, we have seen an additional 3% increase in buyer activity. Median prices of single family homes have also increased over the past year, up 6% to $196,000.
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868 851880
1,024 1,025
909
798
654
563 555
622 641
$122
,850
$133
,239
$136
,000
$147
,000 $1
70,0
00
$210
,000
$226
,800
$223
,575
$215
,000
$204
,500
$199
,600
$185
,500
$196
,000
-$25,000
$25,000
$75,000
$125,000
$175,000
$225,000
$275,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes
+16%
n/a-11%
-12%
-18%
+3%-2%
+29%
+9%+2%
+8%
+16%
+24%
+8%
-1%-4%
-14%
-5%
-1%
-2%
+12%
-7%
+3%
+6%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Townhouse sales picking up pace (compared to last year). After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has finally rebounded. There was a sharp increase (+32%) in townhouse sales this year, which also includes duplexes and condos. This was, of
course, with a significant trade off on prices, which have continued to decline --- down 6% between 2011 and 2012. Hopefully with more buyers in the market (some of whom are investors) we will see townhouse prices starting to stabilize in 2013.
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203
302
444
483
644
529
450
282
253
203
169
223
$89,
000
$94,
600
$103
,100
$108
,200 $1
18,5
00 $134
,950
$160
,850
$163
,800
$167
,250
$161
,875
$154
,500
$144
,000
$134
,995
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsDuplexes, Townhomes & Condos
+9%
+33%-18%
-15%
-37%+47%
+49%
+31%
+6%
+9%+5%
+10%
+14%
+19%
+2% +2%
-11%
-3%
-20%
-5%
-17%
-7%
+32%
-6%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Foreclosures up (ever so slightly) from last year. The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The
red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show aup again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in 2012 is roughly the same as in 2011, as there were 3.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2011 and 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2012.
829
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
794864
5691 63 75 70 86 93 97 118
177
270223 252
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee SalesHome Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Recovery more evident in lower price ranges. The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two
years. Home sales under $200,000 have increased for the past year (and then some), as have sales between $200,000 and $300,000. The pace of home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 has been relatively steady, and the highest price range ($400,000 and up) has seen slower sales over the past two years.
38 3837
38 38 3736
37 3739 39 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41
42 4342
43
4544
16 16 16 16 15 1514 15
16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20
6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 20
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
Post-Tax-Credit DeclineRecovery
Recovery
January 9, 2013
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Big drop in inventory in lowest price segment. Inventory levels have declined across the board over the past two years, but the changes have been quite different based on list prices. The most significant change has been in homes under $200,000 -- just 12 months ago there were 339 such properties for sale, and today there are only
286 for sale -- this marks a 16% decline in inventory. These declines in inventory over the past two years are definitely making a difference in helping to return us to greater balance in the local housing market.
414 416
443 447457 452 451 454 451 444
433
399
339 343328
350 353 360 353370
357 355336
317
286
218208 208 216
230 232 232 236 229 221203
189180 185
194206 214 222
209 201 199 207187 185
171
85 89 86 8897 105 103 106 112
101 9989 81 77 79 77
87 91 84 77 75
64 60 50 5170 65 70
81 81 81 86 86 85 80 75 71 72 66 6475 79 78 75 79 75
72 72 67 64
0
50
100
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250
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400
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
-16%
January 9, 2013
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Housing supply spikes in high price ranges. With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 33 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the
same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six months supply of housing to be a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, and it is remarkable to note that we are finally starting to approach that balance in all but the highest price range.
11 1112 12 12 12 13 12 12
12 1110
8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 98
7 7
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15 1517
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10 10 1111 12 12
11 10 10 109 9
8
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1110
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8
2018
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3836
34 33
5
10
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35
40
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
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Buyers experiencing slightly less flexibility on pricing. This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an
average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Last year may have offered the most flexibility for buyers --- with homes selling at an average of 94.7% of their asing prices --- this metric now shows a (tiny) improvement to 94.8% of the asking price for home sales during 2012.
829
1,0711,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758 794
864
97.4%97.7% 97.8%
98.1%
99.1% 99.1% 98.9%
98.0%
96.9%96.2%
95.7%
94.7% 94.8%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0
250
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1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
List Price to Sales Price Ratiowithin the context of Home Sales Pace
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Price per square foot showing possible signs of stability. In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over
the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Of late, however, the price per square foot has shown signs of stabilization.
$76
$73
$73
$73 $7
6$7
7$7
4 $78
$79
$80 $8
2 $84
$83 $8
6$8
7 $92
$90 $9
6 $99
$105
$105
$113 $1
19 $123 $1
26 $130
$131
$125 $1
29$1
28$1
27$1
26$1
25$1
26$1
21$1
15$1
16 $120
$117
$116
$107
$120
$108
$115
$101 $1
03$1
03$1
02$1
00 $106
$102
$108
$0.00
$25.00
$50.00
$75.00
$100.00
$125.00
$150.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Prices edge up in all price ranges. Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of
larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($96/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($114/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
$138$140
$133
$126$123
$111$114
$123 $123
$116 $117
$107$103
$105
$122$119
$115
$105
$112
$96 $96
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Lot sales (< 1 acre) stabilizing. While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized. We now see that there have been between 58 and 63 lot sales
(of less than an acre) for each of the past four years (2009-2012). The median sales price of these lots under one acre also appears to be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000.
165
201
261247
408
304
111
8574
58 63 60 61
$26,
000
$30,
500
$32,
208
$36,
900
$42,
000
$54,
500
$99,
900
$76,
500
$58,
300
$59,
900
$55,
000
$54,
500
$56,
875
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Pricesless than 1 acre
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
Stability
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Many (many) lots for sale. Despite the fact that only 61 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2012, there are a remarkable 272 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($60,000) is only slightly higher than the 2012 median sales price of $56,875. Given
last year’s 61 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take 4.5 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012) median sales prices.
$0 - $40k30 listings
11%
$40k - $60k110 listings
40%$60k - $80k80 listings
29%
$80k - $100k35 listings
15%
$100k +17 listings
6%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventoryless than 1 acre
272 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $60,000
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Larger lot sales mostly stable between 2008 and 2012. Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2011 as compared to both 2010, but perhaps this was just continuing the trend of 42-53
lot sales per year seen between 2008 and 2012 (with the exception of 2010). The median price per acre of lots over 1 acre in size has fallen slightly over the past year to $14,981.
58
42
87
76
107
168
7783
53
42
27
49 47
$8,2
34
$8,2
45
$8,3
33 $9,5
35
$12,
003
$17,
713
$15,
000
$24,
184
$21,
250
$15,
424
$14,
552 $1
6,35
5
$14,
981
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre1 acre or more
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
High (really high) levels of lot inventory. Despite the fact that only 47 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2012, there are a remarkable 255 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 255 parcels
for sale is currently $20,556 per acre. Given last year’s 47 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 5.4 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
$0 - $10k49 listings
19%
$10k - $20k77 listings
30%
$20k - $30k31 listings
12%
$30k - $40k28 listings
11%
$40k - $50k13 listings
5%
$50k - $100k30 listings
12%
$100k +27 listings
11%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory1 acre or more
255 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,556 / Acre
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
New home sales increasing, prices stable. New home builders experienced an increase in the pace of new home sales during 2011 and 2012 -- after a steady decline since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The median price per square foot has also
apparently stablized around $128/SF, down only slightly over the past two years. As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should continue to increase.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
89
138 137
121
140
186
158
139
109
84
4145
51
$87 $9
4 $99 $1
05 $114
$133
$150
$146
$144
$137
$130
$129
$128
0
50
100
150
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Days on market relatively low amongst many homes that actually slow. Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, nearly 1 out of 3 homes (32%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those
that close in the next 90 days and we find that an amazing 62% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.
0 - 3 months, 277, 32%
3 - 6 months, 257, 30%
6 - 9 months, 115, 13%
9 - 12 months, 75, 9%
1 - 2 years, 103, 12%
> 2 years, 37, 4%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis
Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Average Days On Market: 217
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
0 - 3 months, 168, 29%
3 - 6 months, 154, 27%
6 - 9 months, 85, 15%
9 - 12 months, 48, 9%
1 - 2 years, 76, 13%
> 2 years, 41, 7%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis
Active Listings
Average Days On Market: 247
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Sales pace varies by price range. The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, 64% of homes that sold under $200K sold in the first six months of being on the
market, while only 47% of homes over $400,000 were able to sell in that same time period.
30%
27%
30%
34%
32%
17%
28%
30%
30%
30%
17%
16%
13%
13%
13%
9%
8%
11%
8%
9%
22%
14%
12%
11%
12%
4%
7%
5%
4%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$400k and up
$300k - $400k
$200k - $300k
Under $200k
All Homes
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeProperties Sold in the Past 12 Months
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
Avg = 217
Avg = 205
Avg = 228
Avg = 249
Avg = 253
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Mortgage rates, unemployment levels continue to decline. As shown in the top graph above, home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages. After a brief spike in August 2012, average interest rates are now back to their pattern of breaking all-time historic lows, with a current average of
3.35%, up only slightly from last month’s 3.32%. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which dropped yet again in November, down to 5.2% --- the lowest level on record in the past two years.
4.93
%
5.03
%
4.99
%
4.97
%
5.10
%
4.89
%
4.74
%
4.56
%
4.43
%
4.35
%
4.23
%
4.30
% 4.71
%
4.76
%
4.95
%
4.86
%
4.78
%
4.60
%
4.51
%
4.55
%
4.22
%
4.01
%
4.10
%
3.98
%
3.95
%
3.98
%
3.95
%
3.99
%
3.88
%
3.75
%
3.66
%
3.49
%
3.59
%
3.40
%
3.41
%
3.32
%
3.35
%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest RateSource: Freddie Mac
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
6.1%
6.0%
6.4%
6.1% 6.2%
5.4%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
5.6%
5.3%
5.7%
5.6%
6.0%
5.8%
5.3%
5.9%
6.3% 6.
5%
5.9%
5.5%
5.3%
5.2%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
Unemployment RateNot Seasonally Adjusted
January 9, 2013
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2012.
Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to sellers of luxury homes and builder/developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction.
Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.
In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
In both 2010 and 2011, Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
Local Online Real Estate Resources . . . .
Central Shenandoah Valley Property Searchhttp://www.ScottPRogers.com
Monthly Real Estate Market Reportshttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com
Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentaryhttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgTownhouses.com
New Home Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgNewHomes.com
Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgForeclosures.com
Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockinghamhttp://www.HarrisonburgREO.com
Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgShortSales.com
Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com
Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com
Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
For more information, or with questions, contact:
SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker540-578-0102 (mobile)[email protected]
Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker