january 21, 2003coommercial sector strays1 stray dogs & cats draft conservation assessment of...
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January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 1
Stray Dogs & Cats
Draft Conservation Assessment of Commercial Sector Stand-Alone
Measures
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 2
Context
• Technical & Economic Potential – Not yet adjusted for achievable
potential
– Not yet adjusted for baseline adoption of measure due to practices or price
– Economic Potential based on TRC Benefit/Cost Ratio >=1.0
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 3
• Costs & savings modeled under Council Inputs– 4.75% Discount Rate
– Zero Externalities Credit
– Program costs at 20% of capital cost
Context
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 4
List of Measures
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 5
Quiz: Which is the biggest?
• Answer: Later
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 6
• Process Optimization
• Sensors & Controls• Remote Monitoring• Training
Municipal Sewage Treatment
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 7
Municipal Sewage Treatment
• Facilities • 842
• Total Electricity Use
• Total Treated Flow
• Pilot Savings
• NEB
• 2000 MGD
• 340 MWa
• 30% to 70%
• Big and Bold
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 8
MST Major Input Assumptions
• Use per MDG from 194 facilities by type
• Total capacity from survey of 842 with
capacity data on about 500
• Costs, NEB and Savings from BacGen
pilots and site visits
• Current penetration minimal
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 9
MST Major Input Assumptions
• Savings Potential Inputs %
– Activated Sludge >10 MGD =
– Activated Sludge 1-10 MGD =
– Activated Sludge < 1 MGD =
– Extended Aeration Lagoons =
– Aerated/Mixed Lagoons =
• 9%
• 25%
• 30%
• 30%
• 25%
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 10
MST Non-Energy Benefits
• Labor (automation of sampling & report)
• Solids reduction (removal & disposal)
• Chemical reduction
• Capacity enhancement (not quantified)
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 11
Remaining Retrofittable Stock
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
Year
MD
G F
low
LagoonAerated/Mixed
Activated Sludge< 1 MGD
ExtendedAeration Lagoon
Activate Sludge 1- 10 MGD
Activate Sludge >10 MGD
Municipal Sewage Treatment
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 12
Municipal Sewage TreatmentKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 74Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 19Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 22.6Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 63
Supply Curve Detail
0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00
<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90<10
0>10
0
Levelized Cost
MW
a
Optimize MunicipalSewage - LagoonAerated/Mixed
Optimize MunicipalSewage - ActivatedSludge <1 MGD
Optimize MunicipalSewage - LagoonExtended Aeration
Optimize MunicipalSewage - ActivatedSludge 1 to 10 MGD
Optimize MunicipalSewage - ActivatedSludge >10 MGD
Frozen Efficiency
2025
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 13
Municipal Sewage Treatment
• Natural Utility Program– Each facility is different– Strong non-energy benefits– Lots of barriers
• Industrial sewage treatment loads are similar magnitude – Add to industrial supply curve
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 14
LED Traffic Lights
• Still remaining retrofit potential• Spotty penetration
– Seattle & Portland completed R&G– Ada County Idaho at 10%
• Costs dropping• Green now cost-effective• It’s a question of when
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 15
LED Traffic Lights
• Stock Inputs– Based on national data on signal density– Growth with population
• Retrofit Penetration of LED – Based on informal phone survey by state– Red 56%, Green 38%, Walk 4%
• New Signal Penetration of LEDs– Red 90%, Green 90%, Walk 50%
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 16
LED Traffic LightsKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 14.0Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 1.5Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 29.7Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 8.7
2025
Frozen Efficiency
Supply Curve Detail
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
<10
<20
<30
<40
<50
<60
<70
<80
<90
<100
>100
Levelized Cost
MW
a
PNW 2000 Green 8-inch balls
PNW 2000 Green 8-inch arrows
PNW 2000 Walk/Don't Walk signals - Small
PNW 2000 Green 12-inch balls
PNW 2000 Walk/Don't Walk signals - Large
PNW 2000 Green 12-inch arrows
PNW 2000 Red 8-inch arrows
PNW 2000 Red 8-inch balls
PNW 2000 Red 12-inch balls
PNW 2000 Red 12-inch arrows
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 17
LED Exit Signs
• Stock estimates vary widely– Used conservative estimate– 2,000,000 units
• Retrofit penetration – 20% LED & CFL– Previous CFL available for retro
• New construction penetration– 80% LED
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 18
• Cost & Savings Potential– Used RTF assumptions
• Retrofit Technologies– LED 80%– Electro-Luminescent 10%– CFL 5%– Cold Cathode 5%
LED Exit Signs
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 19
Exit SignsKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 52Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 3Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 26.6Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 41
Frozen Efficiency
2025
Supply Curve Detail
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90 <100 >100
Levelized Cost
MW
a
CC on CFL
EL on CFL
CFL on Inc.
CC on Inc.
LED on CFL
EL on Inc.
LED on Inc.
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 20
Municipal Water Supply• Identified during sewage
treatment pilots
• Municipal use for treatment is 120 –150 MWa
• Aging systems
• 4600 facilities PNW
• Savings potential 20-30%– 24MWa to 45 MWa
• Need cost estimates – pilot
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 21
Municipal Water Supply
Population Served Number of Systems
Total Population
25-500 3,528 469,121
501-3,300 693 964,805
3,301-10,000 184 1,064,488
10,001-100,000 157 4,265,912
>100,000 12 2,705,212
Total 4,574 9,469,538
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 22
Municipal Water Supply
• Real-Time System Modeling & Optimization
• Pump Systems Benchmarking & Optimization
• Low-cost Metering & Data Collection
• Automated Pressure Management
• Automated Monitoring, Control & Optimization
• Leak Detection & Pipeline Monitoring
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 23
Network PC Management
• Better enabling of power management controls• Savings 200kWh/PC Existing• Savings 160kWh/PC New• Stock changeover
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 24
Network PC Management
• Stock Assumptions– Growth tied to commercial employment– Plus 20% increase in density of desktop PC– Conversion to LCD display– Conversion to hotter chips
• Savings Assumptions– 200 kWh/PC existing PCs per RTF– 160 kWh/PC new PCs
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 25
Network PC ManagementRemaining Retrofittable Stock
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Network PCManagementControl (NewStock)
Network PCManagementControl (ExistingStock)
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 26
Network PC ManagementKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 73Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 73
Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 26.9Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 73
Supply Curve Detail
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90 <100 >100
Levelized Cost
MW
a
Network PC ManagementControl (New Stock)
Network PC ManagementControl (Existing Stock)
Frozen Efficiency
2025
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 27
Network PC ManagementKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 57Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 26
Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 25.4Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 57
Supply Curve Detail
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90 <100 >100
Levelized Cost
MW
a
Network PC ManagementControl (New Stock)
Network PC ManagementControl (Existing Stock)
Frozen Efficiency
2005
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 28
LCD Computer Monitors
• Market share now 20%+• Costs dropping with
production capacity increases
• Assume in Forecast• Remove 45 MWa at
2025
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 29
Power Supplies in Equipment
• TV• Cordless phone• Computers• UPS• Visa machine• Answering machines• Chargers
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 30
Power Supplies in Equipment
• US Stock – 8 per person• 2.5 Billion Units• US Power Supply Losses – 350 MWa• Efficiencies
– 40% Low End– 90% High End
• Savings Potential– US 175 MWa, PNW 7 MWa and growing
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 31
Packaged Refrigeration Appliances
• Vending Machines
• Ice Makers
• Reach-ins
• Beverage Merchandisers
• Walk-ins
• Water Coolers
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 32
Packaged Refrigeration Appliances
US Inventory (1000 Units)
Average Per Unit Savings Potential (%)
Simple Payback (Years)
US Annual Electric Savings (TWh)
US Savings (MWa)
Prorated to PNW (MWa)
Vending Machines 4100 50 <3 6.2 708 28.8 Ice-Makers 1200 35 <1 3.3 377 15.3 Reach-Ins 2100 50 <2 5.5 628 25.6 Beverage Mechandizers 800 50 <2 2.4 274 11.2 Walk-Ins 800 50 <3 5.8 662 27.0 Water Coolers 0 -
23.2 2648 107.9 Source: ACEEE A015
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 33
Not Yet Estimated
• Commercial clothes washers• Printers and copiers• Parking garage ventilation• Air compressors• GFX heat exchangers• Street and highway lighting• High velocity hand dryers
January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 34
Economic Potential - Commercial Sector Strays
74
2514
52
73
457
107
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1
MW
a i
n 2
025
Commercial Clothes Washers
Packaged Refrigeration
Power Supplies
LCD Computer Monitors
Network PC Power Management
LED Exit Signs
LED Traffic Lights
Municipal Water Supply
Municipal Sewage Treatment