japan’s recovery from the great east japan …...fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718...
TRANSCRIPT
Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake
Junichi IharaConsul General of Japan
9.08.07.06.0
Haiti (2010)
7.0
222,570 *
Kobe (1995)
7.3
Northridge (1994)
60 * 6.7
Tohoku (2011)
9.0
23,930 *Sumatra (2004)
9.1
227,898 *
Circles represent the seismic energy to scale.
.
Fatalities *
6,434 *
1,000 times more powerful
Fatalities23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)
due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011)
Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa, Miyagi prefecture)
approximately 18 meters (about 60 feet)
Destroyed and Flooded area561 sq. km (about 219 square miles)about the same area as entire San Fernando Valley.
Direct Material Damage¥16 ~ 25 trillion ($200-300 billion) estimated
盛岡駅
北上駅新花巻駅
水沢江刺駅
郡山駅
新白川駅那須塩原駅宇都宮駅小山駅
大宮駅
新青森駅
八戸駅
盛岡駅七戸十和田駅
いわて沼宮内駅
盛岡駅盛岡駅Shinaomori
Hachinohe
Morioka
Ichinoseki
Sendai
Fukushima
Nasushiobara
Omiya
Tokyo
Japanese High Speed Rail System Proved its Safety in the Earthquake
All 27 trains operating in area slowed automatically and stopped safely as designed
Not a single train derailment
No casualties among passengers or crew
No critical damage to rail infrastructure
Operations restarted only 49 days after this earthquake of unprecedented scale
Recent Evolution of Japan’s Seismic Codes
1978 - Miyagi quake (7.4 Magnitude) 28 Fatalities & 6,600 Failed Structures
1981 - Seismic Standards Strengthened
1995 - Kobe quake (7.3 Magnitude) 6,434 Fatalities & 104,906 Failed Structures But post-1981 construction performed well
1995 - Government provides subsidies for retrofit to bring all buildings into compliance with 1981 Seismic Standards
(“1995 Act on Promotion of Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings”)
About 100,000 members mobilizedSelf Defense Forces
Volunteers About 300,000 persons, as of May 16th
(total through the Disaster Volunteer Center)
Operation Tomodachi
Other Assistance from Overseas
Over 20,000 personnelAbout 20 shipsAbout 160 aircraft
109 countries & regions; int’l organizationsRescue and medical teams from 21 countriesUSD 186 million (excluding private donors)
Immediate Disaster Response (1)
(U.S. Navy photo by: Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dylan McCord/Released)
Total units required: 72,000Iwate 8,000; Fukushima 24,000; Miyagi 30,000
30,000 units built by late MayIwate 10,700; Fukushima, 9,300; Miyagi 10,100
Remaining units to be completed by August
Temporary Housing
First Supplementary
Budget4 trillion yen (approved May 2)For infrastructure, business reconstruction loans, temporary housing, disaster waste treatment, etc.
Immediate Disaster Response (2)
Fukushima – 1.5% of GDP
Miyagi – 1.6% of GDP
Iwate – 0.9% of GDP
Most affected prefectures’ output is 4% of Japan’s GDP
Tokyo – 17.8% of GDP
Osaka – 7.5% of GDP
Fukushima: Info-communications equipment, electronic components, transport equipment
Miyagi: Electronic components, steel and steel products
Iwate: Transport equipment, electronic components
Region’s Industrial Profile and Output
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
(MW)
Electricity supply before the earthquake
Reduction of peak demand through energy saving
measures
Summer peak demand
As of May 13, TEPCO is expected to be able to supply 56,200MW of electricity this summer.
March 11th This Summer
3) All motion operated pumpsbecame inoperable
Seawater Pump
Elevation: about 10m
TurbineBuilding
2) Auxiliary diesel generators inoperable due to Tsunami
Diesel Generator
1) Off-site power from grid lostdue to Earthquake
ReactorBuilding
Seawater level
Tsunami (estimated 14m)About20M
About40M
GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy
5.4 ~5.7mBreakwater
0
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(μSv/h)
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r1
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y
Max.
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(μSv/h)
MEXT, Fukushima Prefectural Government
Iwaki43km
Fukushima61km
Sendai90km
25
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μSv/hour μSv/hour
μSv/hour
Fukushima Dai-ichi
Green box indicates normal range of radioactivity
Atmospheric Readings within 100 km
Step 2Step 1
Mar.11 Apr.17 Around 3 months Around 6~9 months
Target Radiation dose in steady decline
Controlling release of radioactive materials
(significant reduction of dose level)
[Reactors]
[Spent Fuel Pools]
[Contaminated Water][Atmosphere/Soil]
Stable cooling - Resume heat exchange function- [Unit 1,3] flood up to top of active fuel- [Unit 2] Seal the damaged location
Prevent contamination spreadDecrease contaminated waterInstall reactor building cover
More stable cooling - Keep sufficient level of water
by remote-control- Resume heat exchange function
Achieve cold shutdown
Roadmap towards Restoration from the Accident (announced by TEPCO on Apr.17)
Stable cooling - Enhance reliability of water injection- Restore coolant circulation system- [Unit 4] Install supporting structureSecure storage place
Install improved cooling system
Improve working environment for employees at facility
Improve earthquake countermeasures
1 2東京電力(株)柏崎刈羽原子力発電所
北陸電力(株)志賀原子力発電所
日本原子力発電(株)敦賀発電所
関西電力(株)美浜発電所
関西電力(株)大飯発電所
中国電力(株)上関原子力発電所
九州電力(株)玄海原子力発電所
東北電力(株)東通原子力発電所 北海道電力(株)泊発電所
東京電力(株)東通原子力発電所
九州電力(株)川内原子力発電所
電源開発(株)大間原子力発電所
東北電力(株)女川原子力発電所
東北電力(株)浪江・小高原子力発電所
東京電力(株)福島第一原子力発電所
東京電力(株)福島第二原子力発電所
日本原子力発電(株)東海第二発電所
中部電力(株)浜岡原子力発電所
四国電力(株)伊方発電所
Output Scale
Over 1,000 MW<1,000 MW<500 MW
Preparing for ConstructionUnder ConstructionOperating units Output (MW)
Operating 54 48,847Under
Construction 2 2,756
Preparing for Construction 12 16,552
Total 68 68,155
1 2 1 2 3
3 4 5
2 3 41
6 7 83 4 51 2
31 2
1 2
1 2
2 3 41 5 6 7
21
2 3 41
31 2
2 3 41
関西電力(株)高浜発電所
3 41 2
中国電力(株)島根原子力発電所
1 2 3
21
1 2 3 4
6
(商業用・2010年3月末現在)
3
3
Nuclear Power Plants in Japan
XXXX
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2007 2030
Renewable 9%Renewable
~20%
Nuclear~50%
Nuclear26%
LNG28%
LNG~10%
Coal25%
Coal~10%
Oil13%
Zero Emission Power Sources
~70%
Zero Emission Power Sources
34%
Delivered Electricity by Source
0.1 bill KWh
Japan’s Changing Electricity Mix
Increased 13%Increased 5%
Maintained 53%
Stopped 11%
Reduced 30%
Maintained 51%
Stopped 7%
Reduced 21%
2007 April 18, 2011
Public Opinion Poll – “What should be done about nuclear power generation in the future?”
Polls conducted by Asahi Shimbun newspaper
Public Debt as % of GDPJapan 197%
Italy127%
UK84%
France92%
USA92%
Source: OECD
Japan’s Household Financial Assets vs. Government Debt
(Source: Bank of Japan; Ministry of Finance, Japan)
Household Financial Assets
Government Debt
2009
9.1
0.2 3.8
-3.0 -3.7 -3.3
2.8 5.0
1.2
-3.3
-5.0
-11.0
-20.0
10.7
-1.9
7.2
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4
March 11, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake
September 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers
Bankruptcy
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4CY2010 CY2011CY2008 CY2009
ActualConsensus private sector forecastActual (before & after Lehman Shock)
Comparison with “Lehman Shock”Japan Real GDP change from previous quarter, annual rate(%)
Sources: “National Accounts” (Cabinet Office); “Monthly Survey of Japanese Economic Forecasts” (Economic Planning Association)