japanese energy crisis

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Japan’s Energy Crisis

Is a Green Future Possible?

Presentation by Guy Dauncey, Vancouver island University, August 2013

1

What is ourREALITY?


実在


We’ve come a long way from this….


To this …


but…

Everyone wants to go shopping…



Smithore Dreamstime.com

We’ve also come to this…

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com


?……


If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,

we'd need two more Earths

to provide the resources.


Live Rainforest

Dead Rainforest

What went wrong?

How did this…


Gross

Domestic

Product


国内総生産

turn into this? …


Gross

Depletionof the

Planet


惑星のグロス枯渇

2

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


地球規模の気候変動

Almost all our energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Almost all energy is Solar Energy

The Sun sends us solar energy

The trees capture the energy through photosynthesis

and convert it into CARBON

In



When ancient forests died,

they stored the carbon

as

COAL

In



When we burn the

COALit releases theancient carbon

and causes

GLOBAL WARMING

In



The Sun also sends solar energyinto the ocean



It is captured by ocean plankton,

who store it as CARBON



When they die,the ancient carbon

becomes

OIL and GAS


Most of our energy comes from:

COAL, OIL and GASAncient solar energy = ancient carbon


Oil is also a cause of war and conflict


They are all FOSSIL FUELSThey all cause Global Warming


The cars we drive all cause global warming



12.5 million tonnes of coal10 million tonnes of oil

7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas

Every day, we burnthis ancient carbon energy


This gives us lots of ……

POWER!

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Earth has a very thin atmosphere which traps and holds the sun’s heat,using CO2, methane, & water vapour.



As we burn the fossil fuels…


When we burn fossil fuels…




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second


The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising


Carbon dioxide traps

Heat warms the air and the oceans


The Arctic Ice is meltingGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Seoul, July 2011



IPCC 2007


www.globalwarmingart.com

+ 2˚C rise


is the Age of Fossil Fuels

This

10,000 years past

10,000 years future


The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

Past Future Age ofFossil Fuels

We are HERE



Glaciers are melting


The Arctic sea ice is melting



Greenland is melting


Antarctica is melting


The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher


2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres


If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise

92 metres

70 metres


Comparison of Vegetation Zones Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate


Kyoto, December 23rd 2006


Mount Fuji in Spring


Mt. Fuji - no snow


All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level



Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise


Hurricane Katrina, August 2005


New Orleans, August 2005


Torrential downpoursand floods

At the current predicted temperature rise,

33%of the Earth will be affected

by extreme drought by 2100

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006




Number of days over 100°F / 38°C

60 days a year

120+ days a year


At the current predicted temperature rise,

Up to 20%of the world’s economy could be lost

That’s like the Great Depression

and both World Wars combined

+

Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!

Climate change is destroying our world!



There’s also a second problem Peak OilGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com



is the Age of Fossil Fuels

This10,000 years past

10,000 years future


The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.


Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)


CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)


Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming


Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves


All of this must remain in the ground


Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting

out of control?


So what shall we do?

3

JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM


エネルギー問題

Coal 21%

Oil 46%

Gas 15%

Nuclear 15%

= 1,000 Terawatt hours

a year



Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

97% of all Japan’senergy

is imported

$$

$$

$$$$


Uranium 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%


Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%


Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

?

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath


www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf


How serious 切実

is Japan’s Energy Problem?

1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious

4

JAPAN’S ENERGY

SOLUTIONS解答



We need…

A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com


We need…

A Green Economy

Harmony with Nature

True Sustainability


How much energy does Japan need?

1,000 terawatt hours a year


1,000 terawatt hours a year

千テラワット時間今年


Where will the green electricity come from?


Efficient Appliances


LED lights only use

1 to 5 watts



How much energy can Japan SAVE?

200 to 500 terawatt hours a year

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

Solar Power


Ota Solar City, Japan


Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo


Les-Mees, France


Solar Stadium, Taiwan


Dow’s Solar Shingles


Thin film solar


Thin film solar production


The Falling Price of Solar PV


Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74


Price of Installed Solar Power

Germany: $2.50 a wattUS & Canada: $5 a wattJapan: $6.50 a watt


How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?



Solar Millennium AG

Solar thermal energy


Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW

Earth’s total known fossil energy reservesare equivalent to 47 days of solar energy

reaching the Earth’s deserts


How much SOLAR THERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Unknown


Geothermal Energy


Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people



Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland


How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?


Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita


Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark

Wind Energy



Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan


Siemens AG


Wind Power in Japan


How much WIND energy could Japan produce?

570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year


How much HYDRO energy could Japan produce?

79 - 140 terawatt hours a year


How much TIDAL energy could Japan produce?


20-70 terawatt hours a year


South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant


The Cost is Falling

1990 2013 2020Wind 30 8-10 8 cents kWh

Solar 200 30 15 cents kWh


THE RESULT

Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year

Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500

Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140Tidal 20 70

TOTAL 971 6510

5

TRANSPORTATION輸送

SOLUTIONS解答Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour

= 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second


Copenhagen36% of all work trips by bike.

Vancouver, Howe Street


Electric Bicycle


Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike


Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo


Electric train, running on green electricity

= no climate impact


Public Transit

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net


Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Japan’s Future Electric Bus


Chevy Volt1,400 km on one tank of gas


Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Smart Electric – 135 km range


Mitsubishi MiEV160 km range


Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range


Tesla Roadster 393 km range

Top

The KIA Pop: yet to be released

STELLA

Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seater

Roadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)

Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,000

10 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid


Electric cars, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV $7,500

3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com


Honda solar electric car charging


Electric car fast charging

Mercedes Biome – made from bioplasticGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay

Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link

Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design


Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact

6

BUILDINGSOLUTIONS


We can live and work in green buildings


Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This…



Or this?

This …



Or this?


Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels


Solar Heat + StorageAustria


Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating


Solar Heating from the Air


Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries

$20,000 to $30,000


Water Source Heat


Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval


Solar Heat

Solar hot wateron a restaurant in

Sweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan


www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA


Lindau Hospital, Germany



Rizhao, China


99% of city centre households use solar hot water.60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.

Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.

Rizhao, ChinaPopulation 3 million


CSIRO


Solar Wall Heating



Welsh Development Agency Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales


Pearl River Tower

Guangzhou, China


Bahrain World Trade Centre


Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San FranciscoRobert Nebolon architect


Toyko, Japan


8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville


ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan. 35,000 plants, 76 species


Osaka


Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village


Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village


Madrid, Spain


Gangnam district, Seoul


ACROS Fukuoka buildingFukuoka, Japan

7

OUR PAST AND

OUR FUTUREGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years


Our technology is the expression of our

cumulative 累積のshared シェアードintelligence 知性


Where are we going?


We have made our full evolutionary

journeyover 13.8 billion years


We have made our recent

evolutionary journey over ten million years


There will be

a billion years

before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die


A billion years10億年

We are here

Past

過去Future

将来


Firewood1.5 million years

CumulativeIntelligence

The Carbon Years…


The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…

Firewood1.5 million years


Fossil Fuels200 years


The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years

Firewood Solar1.5 million years


Fossil Solar200 years

True Solar1 billion years


THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL

What is stopping us from making faster progress?

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導

8

FINALTHOUGHTS


A Thousand PossibilitiesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand

We need to roll up the past.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria

We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.


This is about you, your children,and your future.


決意


You have free will We can make a difference


This is about us, our planet,and our future.


Our Home


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

japanese energy crisis

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