japanese government bondsadb’s 2016 regional forum on management of investment foreign exchange...
TRANSCRIPT
What’s New ⇒ Central Government Debt (As of September 30, 2016) Monthly Topic ⇒ 1 Quarterly Estimates of GDP Jul.-Sep. 2016
2 Latest overview on Abenomics released (Nov 11.)
WHAT’S NEW
Central Government Debt (As of September 30, 2016)
On November 10, the MOF released the update on central government debt. Debt outstanding and composition as of the end of September 2016 are as follows.
Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased by 9.1 trillion
yen to 1,062.6 trillion yen from the end of June (1,053.5 trillion yen). This is because the total for general bonds increased by 8.7 trillion yen.
The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp
The end of September 2016
(Actual)
The end of March 2017 (Estimate)
1) Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings
① General Bonds 825.5 844.3
② Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds) 92.0 96.3
③ Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. 62.4 62.7
④ Financing Bills (FBs) 82.7 116.1
Total 1,062.6 1,119.3
2) Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts
Government-Guaranteed Debts 40.5 -
Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS
Dec. 2016 Contents 1. What’s New
Monthly Topic IR Special Office
…P.1 2. JGB Primary
Market …P.4
3. The Auctions for
Enhanced-Liquidity and JGB Buy-Back
…P.5 4. JGB Secondary
Market …P.6
5. Investor Trends and
JGB Outstanding …P.8
6. Economic and
Financial Trends …P.12
7. Information
…P.13
This Month’s Special!
(trillion yen)
Notes: 1. Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding. 2. Above "Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings" includes government
bonds and borrowings held by government. 3. Figures are total of the general account and all special accounts, and the
coverage is different from the central government defined in SNA. 4. The data as of December 31, 2016 will be released on February 10, 2017. 5. Figures for "Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts" are blank, because
these are not estimated in formulating the budget. Details: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/e201609.html
WHAT’S NEW
<Main Points>
1. Quarterly Estimates of GDP Jul.- Sep.2016
The first preliminary GDP estimate (Jul – Sep 2016) was released on Nov 14. Real GDP expanded by 0.5% (annual rate 2.2%) from the previous quarter. The strong growth was driven by foreign demand, which contributed 0.5 % points. By demand item, Private Residential Investment rose by 2.3% and Government
Consumption rose by 0.4% from the previous quarter, while Private Consumption showed slight growth, up 0.1% from the previous quarter.
2. Latest overview on Abenomics released (Nov 11.)
An up-to-date overview on the progress in Abenomics was released on the government website on November 11 (please see the link below). The material offers the latest on the reforms being implemented to reach a GDP of 600 trillion yen, including work style reform to raise productivity and increase the workforce in the midst of demographic changes.
Link to the Government of Japan website: http://www.japan.go.jp/abenomics/html/
*Material available in both HTML and PDF format.
(%)2016
7~9 10~12 1~3 4~6 7~90.4 -0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 *** 2.20.4 -0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 *** 0.4
(0.4) (-0.5) (0.4) (0.3) *** (0.1) ***0.5 -0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 (0.0) 0.20.5 -0.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.20.5 -0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.2
Excluding imputed Rent 0.6 -1.1 0.8 0.1 -0.0 (-0.0) -0.01.2 -0.4 -0.3 5.0 2.3 (0.1) 9.60.8 1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.1
(-0.0) (-0.1) (-0.1) (0.1) *** (-0.1) ***-0.0 -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 (0.0) 0.80.3 0.6 0.9 -0.3 0.4 (0.1) 1.7
-1.2 -3.4 0.0 2.3 -0.7 (-0.0) -2.7(-0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (-0.0) *** (-0.0) ***(-0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (-0.2) *** (0.5) ***
Change in Public Inventory Net Exports of Goods & Services
2015 2016
Private Non-Resi. InvestmentChange in Private Inventory
Public DemandGovernment ConsumptionPublic Investment
Domestic Demand
Private DemandPrivate Consumption
Consumption of Households
Private Residential Investment
7~9
Gross Domestic Product
MONTHLY TOPIC
-2-
0.9
-0.4 -0.5-0.0
1.00.7
0.4
-0.0
1.3
-2.0
-0.7
0.6
1.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.4
0.5 0.2 0.5
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%)
Private Demand Public DemandForeign Demand Real GDP
Contributions to change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
Note1: Change from the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) Note2: Annual rate Note3: The Figures in () indicate contributions to Changes in GDP. Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
Development of Real GDP (Quarterly, seasonally adjusted series)
Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
Note1
Note2
At the beginning of November, Mr. Ichikawa, deputy director-general of the Financial Bureau, made a presentation to more than 100 foreign and domestic investors at a private investment seminar in Tokyo. The theme of his presentation was “Policy Framework and Public Debt Management of Abenomics 2.0.” He described the new policy framework that the Japanese government is constructing under the current economic environment. He stated that the growth strategy, including working style reform and strategic investment, has become the main engine for the new Abenomics. He also emphasized that the Japanese government is seeking the best policy mix of fiscal and monetary policies, which is clearly distinct from helicopter money and monetization of fiscal deficit. In addition, he explained the basic framework and current consideration of public debt management.
Just around the same time, the IR Special Office members visited Hong Kong, Manila,
Paris and London to have meetings with overseas investors. They had informative conversations with overseas investors, and felt their strong interest toward the progress of Abenomics as well as our debt management policy after BOJ’s new framework “QQE with Yield curve control”. We would like to express our gratitude to our investors for taking their precious time to meet us, especially in Paris and London since it was a very busy time in the global market soon after the US election.
During the IR tour of Asia, Ms. Kimata, director for debt management and JGB investor
relations, and Mr. Shodai, assistant manager, also joined the ADB’s 2016 Regional forum on investment management of foreign exchange reserves in Manila. Participants discussed how to manage their foreign exchange reserves under the global low yield including negative interest rates. Ms. Kimata explained Japanese debt management from the perspective of issuance.
During the IR Europe tour, Mr. Miyoshi, director of the International Organizations Division,
Ms. Kimata, and Mr. Inada, official, participated in the OECD Working Party on Debt Management. Debt managers from OECD member countries actively exchanged views on how to steer policy under the current low yield environment and asset purchases by central banks, and many more topics. Mr. Miyoshi contributed to the discussion by leading a session and making presentations on our bond markets and investor base.
These international conferences provide a good opportunity to strengthen the
international partnership with other countries and to develop better debt management.
IR SPECIAL OFFICE
If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]
-3-
Auction Results
(Bonds)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal
Coupon
Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered
/Accepted (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)
9/1/2016 10-year 344 9/20/2026 0.1% 8,126.7 2,173.5 ▲0.044% ▲0.046% 1.445 224.2 0.0 9/6/2016 30-year 52 9/20/2046 0.5% 2,271.6 725.3 0.507% 0.500% - 74.2 27.6 9/8/2016 5-year 129 9/20/2021 0.1% 6,607.2 2,178.2 ▲0.173% ▲0.175% - 221.0 0.0 9/13/2016 20-year 158 9/20/2036 0.5% 3,322.3 996.9 0.442% 0.437% - 102.1 152.0 9/27/2016 40-year 9 3/20/2056 0.4% 1,363.3 499.4 0.560% - - - 32.7 9/29/2016 2-year 369 10/15/2018 0.1% 7,927.9 2,097.5 ▲0.254% ▲0.263% - 202.2 30.5 10/4/2016 10-year 344 9/20/2026 0.1% 8,288.3 2,170.9 ▲0.056% ▲0.058% 0.997 227.3 356.1 10/6/2016 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 21 3/10/2026 0.1% 1,282.6 399.9 ▲0.391% - - - 25.2 10/12/2016 30-year 52 9/20/2046 0.5% 2,634.7 722.9 0.519% 0.514% - 76.3 118.9 10/14/2016 5-year 129 9/20/2021 0.1% 9,375.8 2,175.1 ▲0.201% ▲0.201% - 224.2 358.5 10/25/2016 20-year 158 9/20/2036 0.5% 3,455.8 990.6 0.367% 0.364% - 108.8 115.9 10/27/2016 2-year 370 11/15/2018 0.1% 9,188.8 2,084.5 ▲0.235% ▲0.237% - 214.8 314.6 11/8/2016 10-year 344 9/20/2026 0.1% 9,422.1 2,165.7 ▲0.055% ▲0.056% 1.167 232.5 358.7 11/10/2016 30-year 52 9/20/2046 0.5% 2,526.7 722.2 0.519% 0.511% - 76.6 0.0 11/15/2016 5-year 129 9/20/2021 0.1% 7,722.5 2,169.0 ▲0.150% ▲0.160% 0.100 230.6 0.0 11/17/2016 20-year 158 9/20/2036 0.5% 3,169.4 999.3 0.477% 0.456% - 100.2 131.8 11/25/2016 40-year 9 3/20/2056 0.4% 1,488.1 499.7 0.725% - - - 74.1
Auction Results (Treasury Discount Bills)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date
Amounts of Competitive Bids
(billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
9/1/2016 3-month 630 12/5/2016 15,572.36 4,051.92 ▲0.2304% ▲0.2425% 388.00 9/7/2016 6-month 631 3/10/2017 12,167.90 3,173.07 ▲0.2566% ▲0.2769% 326.90 9/8/2016 3-month 632 12/12/2016 15,217.50 3,970.35 ▲0.2645% ▲0.2817% 409.60 9/14/2016 1-year 633 9/20/2017 9,977.50 2,276.38 ▲0.3219% ▲0.3398% 223.60 9/15/2016 3-month 634 12/19/2016 16,614.90 3,992.77 ▲0.3363% ▲0.3549% 407.20 9/20/2016 3-month 635 12/26/2016 12,908.80 3,975.36 ▲0.3066% ▲0.3286% 404.60 9/29/2016 3-month 636 1/10/2017 12,824.30 4,054.97 ▲0.3407% ▲0.3547% 375.00 10/5/2016 6-month 637 4/10/2017 13,299.30 3,176.27 ▲0.3643% ▲0.3743% 323.70 10/6/2016 3-month 638 1/16/2017 15,985.40 3,992.38 ▲0.3120% ▲0.3274% 387.60 10/13/2016 3-month 639 1/23/2017 14,882.75 3,947.27 ▲0.2735% ▲0.2925% 402.70 10/18/2016 1-year 640 10/20/2017 10,591.60 2,269.29 ▲0.3080% ▲0.3219% 230.70 10/20/2016 3-month 641 1/30/2017 16,525.90 3,986.37 ▲0.2493% ▲0.2545% 393.60 10/27/2016 3-month 642 2/6/2017 14,948.30 3,981.97 ▲0.2456% ▲0.2568% 398.00 11/2/2016 3-month 643 2/13/2017 15,015.30 3,991.43 ▲0.2568% ▲0.2623% 408.50 11/8/2016 6-month 644 5/12/2017 13,692.50 3,171.37 ▲0.2947% ▲0.3066% 328.60 11/10/2016 3-month 645 2/20/2017 15,031.00 3,982.56 ▲0.2661% ▲0.2765% 387.40 11/16/2016 1-year 646 11/20/2017 8,434.10 2,279.69 ▲0.2500% ▲0.2749% 220.30 11/17/2016 3-month 647 2/27/2017 14,561.95 3,977.15 ▲0.2716% ▲0.2891% 392.80 11/24/2016 3-month 648 3/6/2017 14,671.40 4,015.14 ▲0.2754% ▲0.2873% 404.80
Auction Calendar for Nov. 2016 – Jan. 2017 Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue 11/2(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 11/25(Fri) 40-year 12/21(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 1/19(Thu) 5-year 11/2(Wed) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 11/29(Tue) 2-year 12/21(Wed) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 1/24(Tue) 40-year 11/8(Tue) T-Bills (6-month) 12/1(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 12/27(Tue) 2-year 1/26(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 11/8(Tue) 10-year 12/1(Thu) 10-year 1/5(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 1/26(Thu) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity
11/10(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 12/6(Tue) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 1/5(Thu) 10-year 1/30(Mon) 2-year
11/10(Thu) 30-year 12/7(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 1/6(Fri) T-Bills (6-month)
11/15(Tue) 5-year 12/8(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 1/11(Wed) 30-year 11/16(Wed) T-Bills (1-year) 12/8(Thu) 30-year 1/12(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 11/17(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 12/13(Tue) 5-year 1/13(Fri) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 11/17(Thu) 20-year 12/15(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 1/17(Tue) 20-year 11/22(Tue) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 12/15(Thu) 20-year 1/18(Wed) T-Bills (1-year) 11/24(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 12/16(Fri) T-Bills (1-year) 1/19(Thu) T-Bills (3-month)
Top 10 PDs by Total Purchase in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Apr. 2016 ~ Sep. 2016) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 2 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 7 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 3 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 8 Deutsche Securities lnc. 4 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 9 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 5 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 10 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.
2 JGB PRIMARY MARKET
Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.
-4-
(Until 25 November 2016)
(Until 25 November 2016)
Results of Auctions for Enhanced-Liquidity
Auction Date
Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Average Accepted Spread
Highest Accepted Spread
Issues Re-opened
9/15/2016 978.2 199.9 ▲0.033% ▲0.026%
2-year(357,361) 5-year(107) 10-year(301,315) 20-year(38,43,51)
9/23/2016 1,590.6 499.5 ▲0.031% ▲0.023% 10-year(319,320,321,325,336) 20-year(73,75,85,88,89,93,99,100,101,105,106,107,110,111,113,116,117,120,122,123, 124,125,126,127,128,129,130,131,132,133)
10/18/2016 1,074.3 398.8 +0.001% +0.005% 20-year(137,139,147,150,157) 30-year(7,13,16,17,19, 20,21,22,25,26,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,41,43,48,49,50,51) 40-year(1,2,3,4,6,8)
10/20/2016 1,851.3 499.6 ▲0.015% ▲0.011% 20-year(87,88,89,106,107,108,110,120,125)
11/2/2016 986.9 199.5 ▲0.016% ▲0.013% 2-year(358) 10-year(290,291,292,294,298,299,301,302,303,304,308,315,316) 20-year(45,49,51)
11/22/2016 1,561.2 497.8 ▲0.014% ▲0.012%
10-year(319,320,321,325,328,329, 332,333,336,338) 20-year(65,66,68,69,70,71,72,73,75,76,77,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,98, 103,115,117,125,129) 30-year(2,4,5)
Target Zones of the Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity for the Third Quarter of FY 2016
10-year Inflation-Indexed
Auction Date Amounts of
Competitive Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Average Accepted
Spread (yen)
Highest Accepted
Spread (yen) Issue Numbers
8/17/2016 90.9 20.1 ▲0.267 ▲0.160 17,18,20,21 10/13/2016 112.7 20.0 ▲0.402 ▲0.300 17,21
3 THE AUCTIONS FOR ENHANCED-LIQUIDITY AND JGB BUY-BACK
①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐~5‐year
③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year
Note.1: JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of September 2016. Note.2: All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.
Buy-back Results
(Until 25 November 2016)
(Until 31 October 2016)
-5-
②Remaining maturity : approx.5‐~15.5‐year
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
JN35
8
JN35
9
JS10
7
JS10
8
289
JN36
0
JN36
1
JN36
2
JS10
9
JS11
0
JS11
1
290
291
292
JL38
JL39
JN36
3
JN36
4
JN36
5
JS11
2
JS11
3
293
294
295
JN36
6
JN36
7
JN36
8
JS11
4
JS11
5
296
JL40
JS11
6
297
298
JS11
7
299
300
JL41
JL42
JS11
8
JS11
9
301
302
JS12
0
JS12
1
303
304
JL43
JS12
2
305
JS12
3
306
307
JL44
JL45
JS12
4
308
309
JL46
JS12
5
310
311
JL47
JS12
6
312
JL48
JS12
7
313
314
JL49
JL50
JS12
8
315
316
JL51 31
7
318
JL52
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
1 2 5
(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
319
320
JL53
JL54 32
132
2JL
55 323
324
JL56
JL57 32
5JL
58 326
327
JL59
JL60 32
8JL
61 329
JL62
JL63 33
033
1JL
64 332
JL65
JL66 33
3JL
67JL
68JL
69 334
JL70
JL71 33
5JL
72 336
337
JL73
JL74 33
8JL
75JL
76JL
77 339
JL78
JL79
JL80 34
0JL
81JL
82 341
JL83
JL84 34
2JL
85JL
86JL
87 343
JL88
JL89
JL90
JL91
JL92
JL93
JL94
JL95
JL96
JL97
JL98
JL99
JL10
0JL
101
JL10
2JL
103
JL10
4JL
105
JL10
6JL
107
JL10
8JL
109
JL11
0JL
111
JL11
2JL
113
JX1
JL11
4JL
115
JX2
JL11
6JL
117
JX3
JL11
8JL
119
JL12
0JL
121
JL12
2JX
4JL
123
JL12
4JL
125
JL12
6JL
127
JX5
JL12
8JL
129
JL13
0JL
131
JX6
JL13
2JL
133
JL13
4JL
135
JL13
6
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
5 10 15.5
(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
JX7
JL13
7JL
138
JL13
9JL
140
JX8
JL14
1JL
142
JX9
JL14
3JL
144
JX10
JL14
5JX
11JL
146
JX12
JL14
7JX
13JL
148
JX14
JL14
9JX
15JL
150
JX16
JL15
1JX
17JL
152
JX18
JL15
3JX
19JL
154
JX20
JL15
5JX
21JL
156
JX22
JL15
7JX
23JX
24JX
25JX
26JX
27JX
28JX
29JX
30JX
31JX
32JX
33JX
34JX
35JX
36JX
37JX
38JX
39JX
40JX
41JX
42JX
43JX
44JX
45JX
46JX
47JX
48JX
49JX
50JX
51JU
1JU
2JU
3JU
4JU
5JU
6JU
7JU
8
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)(billion yen)
(Remaining maturities)15.5 20 39
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Japan United States
United Kingdom Germany
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
2-year bond 5-year bond 10-year bond
20-year bond 30-year bond 40-year bond
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16
Volatility Yield (right scale)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2015/6/302015/9/302015/12/302016/8/312016/9/302016/10/31
40353020 25151050
Note: BEI (Japan : old JGBi) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the old Inflation-Indexed Bonds (issue number 16 with current maturity of 1 years and 8months) and the 10-Year Bonds (issue number 293 with current maturity of 1 years and 8months). BEI (Japan : 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds.
Source: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK U.S.A., U.K. : Bloomberg
4 JGB SECONDARY MARKET JGB Yield Curves
Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.
Yields of JGB
Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr) Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
-6-
Yield and Volatility (10Yr)
Break-Even Inflation Rates
Source: Bloomberg, Calculation by the Ministry of Finance
(Until 31 October 2016)
(Until 31 October 2016)
(Until 31 October 2016)
(Until 31 October 2016)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
BEI (Japan : old JGBi) BEI (Japan : 10 year)
BEI (U.K. : 10 year) BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Bond-Lending
Bond-Gensaki
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Treasury Discount Bills
Medium Term Bonds
Long Term Bonds
Short-Term Interest Rates
Source: Bank of Japan; Japanese Banker Association
JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)
Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures
Repurchase Transactions
-7-
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(Until 31 October 2016)
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)
TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)
Basic Loan Rate
-8-
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16
Total Assets
Monetary Base
JGBs
QQE2QQE(trillion yen)Apr 2013(Actual)
Oct 2016(Actual)
Monetary Base 155 418
JGBs 98 348
CP 1.4 2.1
Corporate Bonds 2.9 3.2
ETFs 1.7 10.2
J-REITs 0.13 0.34
Total Assets 175 463
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
180190200210220230240
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
160
180
200
Super long-term
Long-term
Medium-term
T-bills
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
City Banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
Regional banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
Life and non-life insurance companies
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
Foreigners
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016
(unit: trillion yen)(unit: trillion yen)
(unit: trillion yen) (unit: trillion yen)
Trends in Bank Assets by Types
5 INVESTOR TRENDS AND JGB OUTSTANDING Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)
BOJ Trends
Regional Banks City Banks
Source: Bank of Japan
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
Loans
Cash and Deposits
Government Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Equities
Foreign Securities
Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
City Banks Trust Banks Insurance Companies Foreigners
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
59.2
63.3 67.9
55.2 55.6
55.0 52.2 49.3 46.4
52.1
58.1 56.5
61.8 67.8
77.0 78.3 76.6 81.8
86.1
82.6 81.9
81.7 78.9
83.8 81.5
84.0 87.2
93.0 97.7
94.9
100.5
108.4
109.7 110.6
7.4
8.0
8.6
6.9
7.0 6.8 6.4
6.0 5.6
6.0
6.6 6.4
7.1 7.5
8.4 8.5 8.3 8.7 9.1
8.6 8.5 8.4 8.1
8.5 8.2 8.3
8.6 9.1
9.4 9.2
9.7
10.5 10.2
10.0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Amount of JGB Holdings (right)
Proportion of JGB Holdings (left)
(trillion yen)
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
10.0%
30.2%
48.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)
②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)
③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors
-9-
JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors
Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies
Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents
Note: “JGB” includes T-Bills. Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)
Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Foreign Investors Presence
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,
Osaka Exchange
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
Source: Ministry of Finance
JGB and T-Bill Holders
-10-
Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (Jun. 2016)
Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)”
Note.1: "JGB" includes FILP Bonds. "T-Bill" is the sum of "Treasury Bills (TBs)" and "Financial Bills (FBs)" with a maturity of 1 year or less and TBs and FBs have been jointly issued since February 2009.
Note.2: "Banks, etc." includes "Japan Post Bank", "Securities investment trust" and "Securities Companies". Note.3: "Life and Nonlife insurance" includes Japan Post Insurance.
(trillion yen)
Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity
T-Bill Holders
Total 118.0 trillion yen
JGB Holders
Total 987.4 trillion yen
Total 1,105.4 trillion yen
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
20.3% 18.6% 17.0% 17.8% 18.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.3% 16.4% 15.1%
12.8% 11.5% 11.4%13.0% 12.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.0% 11.1% 10.6%
8.3%8.2% 8.9%
8.5% 7.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9%8.3% 9.0% 9.2%8.4%
9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8%8.5% 8.6% 8.4%
8.8%8.4% 7.8%
7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8%
4.2% 4.6% 5.3%
5.2%4.7%
4.9%4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2%
4.8% 5.6% 5.6%
4.9%5.2%
4.6%4.5%
5.0% 4.3% 4.4%
5.8% 6.0% 5.5%
5.5%4.8%
4.8%5.3%
4.5% 4.5% 5.0%
6.3% 5.9% 6.2%
5.2%5.1%
5.6%4.7%
4.8% 5.2% 4.9%
5.4% 5.5% 5.0%
4.7%5.2%
4.4%4.3%
4.6% 4.2% 4.5%
13.8% 14.5% 14.8%
14.4%
14.4%14.9%
15.6%16.5%
17.7%18.4%
1.6% 2.0% 2.7%
3.6%
4.6%
5.8%
6.7%
7.5%8.3%
9.4%
20 yrs-
10-20 yrs
9-10 yrs
8-9 yrs
7-8 yrs
6-7 yrs
5-6 yrs
4-5 yrs
3-4 yrs
2-3 yrs
1-2 yrs
-1 yr
(trillion yen)
(at the end of FY)
531.7 541.5 545.9594.0
636.3
669.9
705.0
743.9
774.1
*years to maturity
805.4
Average
YTM* 5Y9M 6Y1M 6Y3M 6Y5M 6Y8M 7Y0M 7Y3M 7Y7M 8Y0M 8Y5M
Average YTM*
(excluding saving
bonds)5Y8M 6Y1M 6Y4M 6Y6M 6Y10M 7Y1M 7Y5M 7Y8M 8Y0M 8Y5M
General
Government(ex Public Pensions)
2.5
0.2% Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
397.7
36.0%
Banks,etc.
264.5
23.9%
Life and Non-life
Insurance
218.9
19.8%
Public Pensions
52.4
4.7%
Pension Funds
34.3
3.1%
Foreigners
110.6
10.0%
Households
14.0
1.3%
Others
10.6
1.0%
General
Government
(ex Public Pensions)
2.5
0.2%Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
344.9
34.9%
Banks,etc.
257.5
26.1%
Life and Non-life
Insurance
216.7
21.9%
Public Pensions
52.4
5.3%
Pension Funds
34.3
3.5%
Foreigners
54.7
5.5%
Households
14.0
1.4%
Others
10.6
1.1%
General
Government
(ex Public Pensions)
0.0
0.0%
Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
52.8
44.8%
Banks,etc.
7.0
6.0%
Life and Non-life
Insurance
2.3
1.9%
Public Pensions
0.0
0.0%
Pension Funds
0.0
0.0%
Foreigners
55.9
47.4%
Households
0.0
0.0%
Others
0.0
0.0%
Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date
15-Year Floating-Rate Bonds 579.1 December 20
10-Year Bonds 9,443.4 December 20
10-Year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 272.2 December 10
5-Year Bonds 8,094.8 December 20
2-Year Bonds 2,699.5 December 15
Treasury Bill 4,641.9 December 20
Total 25,730.8
Source: Ministry of Finance
Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB(Sep. 2016)
General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding
Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2004-2015: actual, FY2016 initial budget Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2003-2015: actual, FY2016: estimates Source: Ministry of Finance
Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of October 31, 2016)
(trillion yen)
Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in December 2016
Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of October, 2016. Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: About Inflation-Indexed Bonds, the amount of redemption at maturity is adopted the inflation-adjusted principal as of October 31, 2016. Note.4: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors". Note.5: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.6: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
(billion yen)
-11-
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan
499.0526.9 531.7 541.5 545.9
594.0636.3
669.9705.0
743.9 774.1 805.4837.8119.9
136.8 135.6 124.6 127.1
142.4 143.1
163.1 163.3 153.6 158.0 150.5
145.7
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Outstanding (right-hand scale) Issuance Amount (left-hand scale)
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(billion yen)
(issue number)
Outstanding amount (excl. BOJ holding)
BOJ holdingOld type
(without floor)
62.21
102.92
76.83
63.1268.44
44.72
35.8239.7839.28
42.06
20.00
10.5711.5814.2015.9115.4817.8817.9019.7918.95
9.343.75 4.68 5.25 6.25 6.60 6.00 8.06 9.36 10.58
3.350.81 1.28 1.30 1.92 1.86 1.91 2.06 2.20 1.44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
(trillion yen)
(FY)
Treasury Bills2-yr bondsJGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate)JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate)5-yr bondsInflation-Indexed bondsJGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)10-yr bonds15-yr-floating-rate bonds20-yr bonds30-yr bonds40-yr bonds
Average remaining years to maturity: 8 years and 6 months
0.2%
0.1%-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
(%)
CPI
CPI excluding food (excludingalcohilic beverages) and energy
Change from the previous year
Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-
09Ap
r-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr-
10Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11Ap
r-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr-
12Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-
14Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-16
Apr-
16Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
(2010 average=100・Seasonally Adjusted Index)
Production Shipments
Inventory Inventory Ratio
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-0
9
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr-
10
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr-
11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
(billion yen)
Monthly Quarter (Mean)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450(trillion yen)
Banknotes in Circulation
Coins in Circulation
Current Account Balances
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
(ratio)
Oct, 20161.40times
Oct, 20163.0%
Aug, 20090.42times
Jul, 20095.5%
Job opening-to-application ratio(right scale)
Unemployment rate(left scale)
2.3
3.2
4.3 3.8
5.4 4.4
5.5
4.1 4.3
1.8 3.3
0.9
2.1
1.1 1.6
-0.0
1.6 2.1
1.7
-1.0 -0.5
0.9
2.0 1.5
4.4 3.7
4.9
3.4
6.0
4.6
5.8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
Primary Income Trade BalanceServices Secondary IncomeCurrent Account
3.7
-1.5 -2.0
-0.1
4.12.8 1.8
-0.2
5.2
-7.8
-2.8
2.3
5.0
-1.3
1.6
-1.6
2.1
0.7
2.2
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%)
Private Demand Public Demand
Foreign Demand Real GDP
Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
(CY)
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
May
-16
Sep
-16
(Diffusion index)
Large enterprises/Manufacturing
Large enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
Real GDP Growth Rate
Employment Conditions
Prices
Changes in Current Account
Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production
Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector exc. Volatile orders)
TANKAN (Business Conditions)
Source: Cabinet Office "Quarterly Estimates of GDP"
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “CPI”
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare “Employment Referrals for General Workers “, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Labour Force Survey”
Source: Ministry of Finance “Balance of Payments"
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry "Indices of Industrial Production”
Source: Cabinet Office, Government Japan "Orders Received for Machinery"
(trillion yen)
6 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TRENDS
Source: Bank of Japan "Monetary Base"
Source: Bank of Japan "Tankan"
-12-
English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management
Message from the Financial Bureau As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm
About JGBs As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm
About the Debt Management Policy As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm
JGB Issuance Plan As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm
Auction Calendar
Auction Calendar Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm
Historical Data of Auction Results Each Auction http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html
Topics
Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html
Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm
Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm
Interest Rate Swap Semiannual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm
Taxation of Government Bonds As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation/index.htm
For Individual Investors As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm
Data
Central Government Debt Quarterly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm
Interest Rate Daily http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
STRIPS Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm
Dialogue with the market
Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html
Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html
Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html
Publications
Debt Management Report Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm
JGB Newsletter Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm
Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan
Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: www.mof.go.jp
7 INFORMATION
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-13-