jcsda science workshop, umbc, 05/12-13, 2009 jcsda program update and overview lars peter...

JCSDA Science Workshop, UMBC, 05/12-13, 2009

JCSDA Program Update and Overview

Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA Director


Overview

• JCSDA structure, goals, mode of operation

• R2O, Internal and external research

• Recent events and accomplishments

• Outlook, charter to workshop and breakout groups


NASA/Earth Science Division

US Navy/Oceanographer andNavigator of the Navy and NRL

NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS

NOAA/OAR

US Air Force/Director of Weather

Mission:

…to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models.

Vision:

An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction


JCSDA Executive TeamDirector (Riishojgaard)

Deputy Director (Boukabara)

Partner Associate Directors

(Lord, Rienecker, Phoebus, Zapotocny)

Management Oversight Board

NOAA / NWS / NCEP (Uccellini)NASA/GSFC/Earth Sciences Division (Einaudi)

NOAA / NESDIS / STAR (Powell)NOAA / OAR (Atlas)

Department of the Air Force / Air Force Director of Weather (Zettlemoyer)

Department of the Navy / N84 and NRL (Chang, Curry)

Agency ExecutivesNASA, NOAA, Department of the Navy, and

Department of the Air Force

Advisory Panel

Co-chairs: Jim Purdom, Tom Vonder Haar, CSU

Science Steering Committee

(Chair: Craig Bishop, NRL)

JCSDA Management Structure

JCSDA Science Workshop, UMBC, 05/12-13/2009

JCSDA Science Priorities

Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM) Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments Clouds and precipitation Assimilation of land surface observations Assimilation of ocean surface observations Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosol

Driving the activities of the Joint Center since 2001, approved by the Science Steering Committee

Overarching goal: Help the operational services improve the quality of their prediction products via improved and accelerated use of satellite data and related research


New JCSDA short-term goal:(adopted 03/2008)

• “Contribute to making the forecast skill of the operational NWP systems of the JCSDA partners internationally competitive by assimilating the largest possible number of satellite observations in the most effective way”


From idea to implementation (R2O)

Basic research Applied research Research to Operations

transition (JCSDA) Operational implementation (NCEP,

AFWA, FNMOC, …)

JCSDA Mode of operation

• Directed research– Carried out by the partners– Mixture of new and leveraged funding– JCSDA plays coordinating role

• External research– Historically implemented as a NOAA-administered FFO, open to

the broader research community– Typically ~$1.4 M/year available => revolving portfolio of ~15 three-

year projects

• Results and progress from both directed and external work reported at JCSDA Science Workshop (May 12-13, 2009)


Directed Research, JCSDA Working Groups

• Composed of working level scientists from (in principle) all JCSDA partners, plus additional members where appropriate

• Tasked with sharing information and coordinating work where possible

• Roles and scope still under evolution• Four WGs formed so far

– CRTM– IR sounders– Microwave sensors– Ocean data assimilation


External Research Program• Complements internal efforts and expertise of JCSDA partners, e.g.

– CRTM upgrades, spectroscopy, algorithms– Clouds and precipitation

• Engages research community in R2O transition activities of vital national importance, e.g.– Data assimilation methodology– Diagnostics of data impact and model performance

• No announcement in FY 2009 due to lack of funds• FY 2010 announcement is on track

– Program will be split between grants and contracts (NOAA and NASA, respectively)

– Longer term plans still being worked out


Recent JCSDA highlights• IASI

• ASCAT

• COSMIC

• Advisory Panel meeting

…

IASI Impact on Standard Verification Scores

N. Hemisphere 500 hPa AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20

1 Aug - 31 Aug 2007

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast [days]

Anomaly Correlation '

Control IASI_EUMETSAT

S. Hemisphere 500 hPa AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20

1 Aug - 31 Aug 2007

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast [day]

Anomaly Correlation '

Control IASI_EUMETSAT

NH 500 hPa Height Anom. Cor.

1-31 August 2007

SH 500 hPa Height Anom. Cor.

J. Jung

IASIControl

S. Hemisphere 1000 hPa AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20 1 Aug - 31 Aug 2007

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast [day]

Anomaly Correlation

Control ASCAT

ASCAT Impact Experiments with GFS

COSMIC: recent impact

AC scores (the higher the better) as a function of the forecast day for the 500 mb gph in Southern Hemisphere

40-day experiments:– expx (NO COSMIC)

– cnt (operations - with COSMIC)

– exp (updated RO assimilation code - with COSMIC)» Many more observations

» Reduction of high and low level tropical winds error

COSMIC provides 8 hours of gain in model forecast skill at day 4!!!!

N. Hemisphere 1000 hPa AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-201 Jan - 31 Jan 2008

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast [day]

Anomaly Correlation

Control ASCAT

ASCAT Impact Experiments with GFS (II)


JCSDA Advisory Panel, Silver Spring 01/27-28, 2009

Dr. Jim Purdom, CIRA (Chair) Dr. Rick Anthes, UCAR Dr. Mike Bell, Met Office Dr. Philippe Bougeault, ECMWF Prof. Eugenia Kalnay, UMD


JCSDA Advisory Panel 01/2009 Dr. James F.W. Purdom (Panel Chair) on JCSDA FFO:

“We are concerned with the decreased funding of the Federally Funded Opportunity (FFO) program, as it is the gateway to the academic community. We recommend continuing to fund the FFO as a grant and offering the most promising FFO research a contractual arrangement to move toward operational implementation”


JCSDA Advisory Panel 01/2009.Prof. Rick Anthes on satellite data research:

“The national investment in satellite data assimilation is a tiny fraction of the investments in the satellite systems themselves, yet assimilation research and implementation in operational models are essential to realize the enormous potential of the satellite data. Augmented investments in data assimilation research and the supporting computing tools are highly recommended”


Outlook

Metrics Performance metrics are in development and being

tracked by JCSDA management Preparations for NPP and ADM New JCSDA Working Groups

Oceans, Atmospheric Constituents 2009 JCSDA Summer Colloquium on Data

Assimilation


Metrics

Agreement to track forecast skill measures as key JCSDA metric AFWA metrics updated on a daily basis

and available on protected JCSDA web page

NCEP/EMC prototype metric will be available shortly

Other JCSDA partners expected to follow


Preparation for new sensors

Resources allocated to preparation for new sensors based on expected forecast impact IPO providing initial funding for ATMS,

CrIS GOES Program providing funding for

ABI preparations Funding for ADM being requested

through NOAA Budget Process …


JCSDA Working Groups Oceans Working group recently

established

Atmospheric Constituents is next

GPSRO

…


JCSDA Summer Colloquium

Two-week summer school in Stevenson, WA, 07/07-07/17, 2009

Outstanding program of lectures given by world leading experts

38 participants (almost all Ph.D. students or post-docs) from 8 countries, including the US

Sponsored by all JCSDA partners Organizing Committee includes JCSDA

Executive Team


Questions to the Workshop

(breakout groups): In light of what you have seen and heard from oral and

poster presentations during this Workshop, how would you rate the JCSDA activities in your subject areas?

What should be the top priority for your subject area if additional funding were to become available?

Internal, external? Are there data types or subject areas where JCSDA is

missing the boat? What is the role of your JCSDA Working Group?

If you don’t have a JCSDA WG, should you? Workshop format

This year’s format, or the “old” one with most presentations in parallel sessions, or yet another model?

jcsda science workshop, umbc, 05/12-13, 2009 jcsda program update and overview lars peter...

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