jean-michel d urr ministry of education, france
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Reengineering of the population census the french experience and its lessons for implementing new censuses. Jean-Michel D urr Ministry of Education, France Former director of the project for redesign the french census – INSEE. The goal s of a census. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Reengineering of the population census
the french experience and its lessons for
implementing new censuses
Jean-Michel DurrMinistry of Education, France
Former director of the project for redesign the french census – INSEE
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
The goals of a census
• Provide official population (enumeration) : state, regions, municipalities… :– to share public funds on the population basis– Seats at parliament
• Describe characteristics of population and dwellings :– Sex, age– Employment– Migrations– Place of work, commuters– Households– ….
– >>> at any geographical level
• Sample base for household surveys
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
The traditional census
• Main features :– Exhaustiveness– Simultaneity– Every ten years or about
• Advantages :– Coherence of the data : snapshot of the population and dwellings– Data for any geographical level available– Mobilisation of the population and the teams
• Drawbacks :– Sample for some variables– Refreshment only every 10 years– Problem of quality due to the importance of the operation and
the lack of capitalized experience– Fixed dates : may not fit to the evolution– Risk for boycott– Cost of te operation (inc. intercensal headcounts)
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Freshness
• Refreshment only every 10 years : sufficient in the past, but no more :
• Increasing demand for more frequent local data :– changes in population are going faster :
• urbanization, • migration, • social behaviour...
– More and more utilisation at a local scale : decentralization, local area policies
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Quality
• Huge operation, difficult to manage and to ensure quality• unsufficiently skilled enumerators• problem to capitalize experience• allways changes in methodology or definition• problem to compare censuses over time :
– the example of migration :
• Populationcensus N+10 - Populationcensus N is supposed to measure the evolution of population :
= Births + Deaths + balance of migration
• but affected by differences of quality ot the two censuses : if the balance of migration is 50 000 and census N overestimates population of 25 000 and census N+10 underestimates of 25 000, the balance of migration will be estimated to zero.
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Fixed date
• The dates of the censuses may structure the analysis of the evolution and may hide the real process :
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
% people living in periurban areas
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
The situation in the world
• Mainly decennial census, – Registers in certain countries, but often problem of quality– Sometimes intercensal headcounts (very costly)
• Increasing demand : – Rapid changes in population and urbanization– At a local scale : decentralisation, more power to local authorities– Users ask for more frequently refreshed information
• Concerns about quality and efficiency of the operation
A need for finding new ways• A lot of projects or studies for new methods of census :
– Spain, Germany, Israel : register based census– Netherlands : virtual census based on surveys linked to the
register– France, USA, Peru : use of rolling census– Brazil : studies for redesign the census– UK, Mexico : studies (surveys + register)– ...
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
The situation in the world - ECE
Method 2000 2010
Traditional census 35 22
Based on registers 3 7
Registers + headcount 5 4
Registers + surveys 1 8
Headcount + rolling census - 1
Rolling census - 1
Total 44 43
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
New methods ?
• Get free of the dogmas of :– Exhaustiveness :
• Use sample
– Simultaneity :• Collect information at different time and combine it
• And many combinations are available :– Sample/exhaustive surveys– Register/administrative sources– Multi annual combination – …
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
The situation in the 90’s in France
• General censuses since 1801, every 5 years until 2nd world war
• Increasing periods between censuses : 7, 8, 9 years due to budget consideration
• Insufficient legal basis :• periodicity• Insee and the municipalities’ function
• Increasing demand for information : • At a local scale : décentralization, more responsibility for municipalities, regions• Fresher data
• No population register
• Progress in :– Sampling techniques (well-balanced)– Geographic information systems (GIS)
• >> Reconsider traditional general census using rolling census techniques
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Rolling census
• Principles :– Ideas of Kish (1980, 1990…)– Combination of data collected at different
periods– Cumulative survey covering a whole country
over a period ot time rather than a particular day :
• Produces annual and multi-year estimates• Produces information for all areas • updated every year
– Exhaustive enumeration or sample
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Another rolling census experience
• American Community survey :
– Implement a national sample of 3 million addresses
– Profiles every year for communities of 65,000 or more, beginning in 2004 and each year thereafter
– 3 to 5 year cumulations for communities of less than 65,000 population
– but insufficient sample to replace the decennial headcount
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Methodology
• constraint :– Same budget as for a general census : every year, 1/7 th of the
general census budget
• 5 years cycle : – Produce 3 years old data
sampling : survey 5/7 (70%) of population over 5 years
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Francenumbers almost36 000 communesunder 10 000inhabitants (almost30 millionsinhabitants).These communesHave been spreadinto 5 groups
WHEN ?
WHO ?
HOW ?
HOW MUCH ?
Each year, in january and february, to avoid problems of seasonal effect
One group enumerated each year,More than 7 000 communes
Survey on every inhabitant of the communes of the group.In 2004, every inhabitants in the communes of first group,In 2005, every inhabitants in the communes of second group,etc.
Over 5 years, every inhabitant of the communes under 10 000 inhabitants is enumerated
Communes under 10 000 inhab.
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
A year for every commune
In 2009,we go on …
(exemple of Bas-Rhin)
"communes 2008" (less than 10 000 inhabitants)
"communes 2007" (less than 10 000 inhabitants)
"communes 2006" (less than 10 000 inhabitants)
"communes 2005" (less than 10 000 inhabitants)
"communes 2004« (less than 10 000 inhabitants)
Communes concernées chaque année(10 000 inhabitants or more)
Haguenau
Strasbourg
Sélestat
Saverne
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
France numbersalmost 900communes over 10 000inhabitants :near30 millionsinhabitants
WHEN ?
WHO ?
HOW ?
HOW MUCH ?
Every commune every year
Survey on a 8 % of the dwellings sample each year
Over 5 years, 40 % of the population issurveyed
Communes over 10 000 inhab.
Each year, in january and february,to avoid problems of seasonal effect
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
A group of buildings sampled every year
In 2009,we go on …
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Estratos equilibrados< 10.000 habitantes (36.000 comunas/30 milhões hab.) 10.000 habitantes (900 comunas/30 milhões hab.)
•Comunas < 10.000 hab.– Seleção de 20% das comunas por ano– Enumeração exaustiva nas comunas selecionadas – Todos os endereços visitados em 5 anos
•Comunas >= 10.000 hab.– Todas as comunas visitadas anualmente– Visita a 8% dos endereços de cada comuna/ano– Serão visitados 40% dos endereços em 5 anos
Estratos adicionais : domicílios coletivos (internatos, instituições etc) - 20% visitados a cada ano
Plano amostral : resumo
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
The new census will produce every year :
• De jure population for every commune and administrative district : enables to take more frequently in account changes in population– > more equity
• Detailed statistical results :– At every geographical level
(micro data file for tabulation) – Combining data collected during the 5 last years– Relevant for the medium year (Y-2)
• Overall estimations at national and regional level : based on data collected the last year
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Cumulating information
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1
2
3
4
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 1* Group 2* Group 3*
* Including updates
Year of collection
5
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
How to estimate population of communes < 10 000 inhab. in Y-2 ?
Y-5 Y-4 Y-3 Y-2 Y-1 Y
I
II
III
IV
V
2AIIIR
5AVR
4AIR
3AIIR
1AIVR
AVR
2~ AIR
2~ AIIR
2~ AIVR
2~ AVR
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Communes > 10 000 inh.
• 8% sample every year
• Mobile sum of the data collected 5 latest years
• Weighted according to the Y-2 RIL (number of dwellings)
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Why Y-2 ?
• Medium year of the set of data
• At most 2 years between observation and estimation
• Mobile average in large communes
• …
• But it is possible to estimate Y with the same set of data collected over Y-4 <-> Y
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Agenda
• 1995 : first report
• 1998 : beginning of the project
• 2004 : beginning of the new census
• 2005 : 1st overall estimations (France-regions) : some criteria
• 2006-2007 : Overall estimations (France- regions) : all criteria
• End of 2008 : first de jure populations
• 2009 : « cruising speed » dissemination
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Utilisation of the new rolling census data
• General census : a snapshot every 10 years
• New census : not a movie, rather a slideshow– communes < 10 000 inhab. : more frequent full enumeration – communes > 10 000 inhab. : sample survey, but annual
update :• Suburban districts evolution : for example, changes in the social
characteristics• local decisions• no more dependent on the date of the census
• Any level : annual update
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Rolling samples : two approaches
– Things are not changing too much during the period : as if you take a picture with a long exposure time. A certain fuzziness is acceptable
• If the period is long, for example 5 years, you may consider you estimate the middle year to consider a shorter period (2 years) between observation and estimation
– Things may change over the period : • you may collect relevant information for each period and
combination gives a stronger estimate for an average mobile mean.
• Otherwise, possible use of small area method (with complementary sources or not)
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Flow data : example of migration
• For example, estimate migration over 5 years :– At country, state, region level, the annual sample is
relevant enough : • compare population between the present year and 5 years
before to calculate the balance of migration. Less problems of quality differences to compare
• use the question « Where did you live 5 years ago » to build the matrix of flows (region x region)
– For small communes, enumerated every 5 years : • compare population of the year to population 5 years ago
to calculate the balance of migration• matrix of flows over 5 years :
– the former place of residence of immigrants has been collected at the last survey
– the new place of residence for internal emigrants has been collected over the last 5 years in the other communes
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Example : commuters
Urban area of Montpellier :
- 380 000 inhab.
- 45 000 surveyed every year
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
How to take benefit of that experience for implementing new censuses
Not a unique model :• When get free of the two dogmas of exhaustivity and
simultaneity, a lot of frameworks are possible :– Sample/not (e.g. : spread the whole population over 10 years)– Level of sampling : commune, building, dwelling…– Use of administrative data/not– Data collection over year/one moment in the year
• Example : french and american experiences are very different but based on the same principles
• So : necessary to find the best way according to the national context
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2° CONFEST - 21-25 de agosto de 2006 - Rio de Janeiro
Thank you for attention
Any questions ?