jeffrey lindner meteorologist harris county flood control district october 4, 2015 2010-2012 drought...
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Jeffrey LindnerMeteorologist
Harris County Flood Control DistrictApril 21, 2023
2010-2012 Drought and Outlook
Texas Annual Rainfall
Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010
Notice Any Trends?
2010 Texas Rainfall
2010 Texas Rainfall Departures
DRY
WET
2010-2011 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10- Oct 11)
Drought Conditions 9-27-11
2012 Drought Conditions
2012 Drought Conditions
2010-2011 Drought
2011
Driest water year on record for Texas
2011 Summer Heat
Days at or above 100:Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980)Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000)Conroe: 53 (42 in 1998)Huntsville: 72 (43 in 1980)College Station: 69 (58 in 1917)Dallas: 71 (69 in 1980)Waco: 90 (63 in 1980)Austin Mabry: 90 (69 in 1925)San Antonio: 57 (59 in 2009)Del Rio: 85 (78 in 1953)
Most Consecutive 100 degree days:Houston IAH: 24 (14 in 1980)Austin: 27 (21 in 2001)Dallas: 40 (42 in 1980)Waco: 44 (42 in 1980)
• Houston tied all-time record high of 109 on 8-27-11• Galveston: 100 on 8-27-11 for only the 7th time ever• Hottest June-August (summer) period ever!
Top 4 Warmest months for Texas ever:July 2011: 87.2July 1998: 86.5July 1980: 86.3August 1952: 85.7
2012 Drought Conditions Lake Levels and Capacity June 8
O.H. Ivie: -41.36 (16%)Lake Brownwood: -10.96 (55%)Canyon Lake: -4.55 (90%)Lake Somerville: -.08 (99%)Lake Texana: -1.25 (92%)Lake Buchanan: -20.24 (55%) Lake Travis: -38.46 (49%)Lake Georgetown: -2.06 (93%) Toledo Bend: -2.57 (89%)Sam Rayburn: -.77 (97%)
Lake Houston
Lake Travis
Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels)
O.H. Ivie: -41.36 (16%)Lake Brownwood: -16.7 (37%)Canyon Lake: -10.64 (78%)Lake Somerville: -10.36(37%)Lake Texana: -12.43(41%)Lake Buchanan: -30.22 (35%) Lake Travis: -54.74 (34%)Lake Georgetown: -25.31 (34%)Toledo Bend: -12.43 (58%)Sam Rayburn: -13.60 (55%)
2011 Drought Conditions
192,404 acre feet evaporated in 2011!
1 acre foot = 325,851 gallons
Lake Travis
LCRA Water Supply Projections
Lake Travis Pedernales River
Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB
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2012 Drought Conditions
March 30, 2011
May 30, 2012
Mandatory: 594Voluntary: 416
Mandatory: 33Voluntary: 34
2010-2012 Drought• 2nd worst in C TX based on rainfall behind 1950’s • 2nd worst drought in TX history (behind 1950’s)•At least 7.2 billion in economic losses so far, 90% of corn crop failed•Hay was no longer available for cattle (2011)•Tremendous impacts on livestock, vegetation, economy• 500 million trees lost across TX (10% of state canopy coverage)
• Hardest hit (Harris, Montgomery, Grimes, Madison Counties)• 4 million additional trees lost to wildfires (1.5 million in Bastrop alone)• Over 17,500 trees lost in Memorial Park
La Nina Impacts
Rainfall Departures – Last 180 Days
Rainfall Departures – Last 30 Days
Average versus Monthly Total RainfallAbove Average
Rainfall 2011 versus 2012
2012 Drought Forecast
2011 Hurricane Season
US Landfalls ?
East US Upper Trough
H
2012 Forecasted Sea Level Pressures
2010
2012
Atlantic Sea Temperature Anomalies
2012-2014 ENSO Forecast Models
La Nina
El Nino
Neutral
1957: Hurricane Audrey (cat 4) Sabine Pass TS Bertha (Sabine Pass)
1965: None
2001: TS Allison (Galveston Island)
2009: None
1957: Hurricane Audrey (cat 4) Sabine Pass TS Bertha (Sabine Pass)
1965: None
2001: TS Allison (Galveston Island)
2009: None
Named Storms: 9-15 Hurricanes: 4-8 Major Hurr: 2-3
Analog Years
2012 Season
2012 Summer - Fall Outlook
• Normal or possibly above normal rainfall• Above normal temperatures• Active severe weather
• Potentially less active 2012 Hurricane SeasonCooler Atlantic SST’sHigh than average SLPFormation of late summer El NinoPossible close in rapid development
• Formation of warm Phase Pacific (El Nino) late summer.Possibly wet late summer and fall 2012Possibly below normal temperatures
