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Beyond the Blue Globe

The 5Rs shaping the Power Generation Landscape

Anil Kumar Jha

Director (Technical), NTPC Limited

Beyond the Blue Globe

.

World Today Future World

Market-oriented approach

Prosperous world

Shaped by Citizens

People Choose Austerity

Climate Change is a Concern

Economy driven by growth

and Curbing Emissions

Climate Change a priority

Economic growth based

on Sustainability

Today climate change is concern for everyone, but shall be the priority tomorrow.

Paris

Agreement

Anchoring

International Solar

Alliance (ISA)

Reducing Emissions

Intensity of GDP by

33 - 35 % by 2030

from 2005 level

Additional Carbon Sink of

2.5 - 3 BT of CO2

Increasing the Non Fossil Based capacity to 40% by 2030

Increasing Forest cover

Mobilizing Finance

Technology Transfer and Capacity Building

Cleaner Economic Development

Adaptation

Sustainable Lifestyles

E

R

E

L

B

A

N

S

India has Ratified Paris Climate Deal..

Paris Agreement as ratified by India has special emphasis on Renewables to reduce emissions.

Present Fossil fuel based capacity is predominantly coal based and expected to remain so…

187 GW61%

25 GW8%

1 GW0.3%

43 GW14%

6 GW2%

44 GW15%

836 BU76%

41 BU4%

1 BU0.1%

129 BU12%

36 BU3%

62 BU5%

(RE)

(COAL) (GAS)

(HYDRO)(NUCLEAR)

(OIL)

COAL

OIL

GAS

HYDRO

NUCLEAR

RENEWABLE

RENEWABLE

COAL

OIL

GAS

HYDRO

NUCLEAR

Installed capacity of DG sets are 100 GW+ and is

not accounted in Demand/ Supply calculations

Installed

Capacity

Power

Generation

India’s Installed capacity as on 30.09.2016 | Generation figures as per CEA report | DG set figure based on TOI repor t dtd. 02.01.2015

The Left Pie chart shows India’s installed capacity as on 30.09.2016 (in which RE capacity is as on 30.06.2016) – as obtained from CEA report (Sept, 2016). The Right Pie chart shows India’s power generation break-up of 2015 (based on CEA report), which was 1105 BU. The DG sets capacity is 105 + GW as per TOI report dated 2nd Jan, 2015. 100+ GW DG set capacity indicates dormant demand for reliable power & willingness of consumer to pay. There is a potential to increase PLF of existing plants and even the utilization of potential of existing gas based capacity for overall optimization.

213

418

44

221

49

107

2016 2030

INS

TALL

ED

CA

PA

CIT

Y (

GW

)

2016 2030

Current IEA Projection

Future of Capacity Addition

Fossil

Conv.

Non-

Fossil

RE

This slide shows present installed capacity & IEA projections 2030 for India. The dotted lines show the CAGR for Fossil, RE & Conventional Non-Fossil categories. Fossil includes Coal, Gas & Oil based generation Conventional Non-fossil includes Nuclear & Hydro RE includes Solar, Wind, Biomass & Small Hydro

213

315

418

44

175

221

49 60

107

2016 2030

Current IEA Projection

2022

Targets for 2022

INS

TALL

ED

CA

PA

CIT

Y (

GW

)Future of Capacity Addition

Fossil

Conv.

Non-

Fossil

RE

This slide is in continuation with previous slide which also includes GOI target for total installed capacity of 550 GW. India aims for 175 GW capacity by RE in 2022 and the other two break-ups are derived considering Conventional non-fossil based capacity at 60 GW in view of low current under construction capacity by Central PSUs (NPCIL’s under construction : 3.8 GW, NHPC’s under construction : 3.13 GW & NTPC’s under construction hydro : 0.719 GW)

INSTALLED

CAPACITY

(GW)

GENERATION

(BU)

Induction of 300 GW in next 15 years

using coal based generation requires

focus on Clean Coal Technologies

with cycling and two shift capabilities

Despite massive renewable capacity plans, coal based capacity is required to grow faster than ever…

Fossil

Conv.

Non-

Fossil

RE

Scenario based on per capita energy consumptions

Assumptions : Fossil PLF : 63% | RE PLF : 23% | Conv. Non-Fossil PLF : 40%

213

330 488

44

175265

49 60 75

70% 14% 16% 58% 31% 11% 59% 32% 9%

306 GW 565 GW 828 GW

2016 2022 2030

948

1831

66353 534

159 210 263

81% 6% 14% 76% 15% 9% 77% 15% 8%

Per Capita

1075 kWh

1173 BU 2394 BU 3500 BU

Approx. 22 GW/year coal based

capacity to be added by 2030 to

meet per capita demand with a due

consideration of retiring units

Per Capita

1800 kWhPer Capita

2500 kWh

2703

The world’s average per capita energy consumption stood 3104 kWh in 2013 as per world bank data. India’s per capita energy consumption in 2015 stood 1010 kWh, which we expect to increase to 1800 kWh & 2500 kWh by 2022 & 2030 respectively. Based on this, the demand forecast has been made for 2022 & 2030. We have assumed India’s populations of 132 Crore & 140 Crore by 2022 & 2030 respectively with respect to recent growth rate & population figures. Our capacity projections for 2022 (565 GW) are almost same as GOI targets for 2022 (550 GW) and exceeds by 82 GW with respect to IEA projections for India in 2030. With above calculations, the Capacity addition target for Coal based capacity comes around 20 GW per year. And considering approx. 33 GW retiring plants in India by 2030 the Capacity addition target for coal based capacity should be 22 GW per year. In view of huge capacity addition target for coal based capacity, the focus is on Clean Coal Technologies with cyclic loading capabilities.

Capacity & Demand Projection based on GDP

2016 20302022

Projection based on 7% GDP growth rate

And Energy Elasticity of 0.8

Assumed DG set PLF : 6 %

Present Installed Capacity does not include

Captive Installed Capacity : 47 GW and

DG set Installed Capacity : 100+ GW

Most of the projections of 2030 in the

range of 750-800 GW, Induction of approx.

500 GW in next 15 years is required

306 GW 469 GW722 GW

1173 BU

1703 BU

2634 BU

This slide predicts the power scenario based on Average GDP growth rate of 7% with Energy Elasticity of 0.8. Present installed capacity is 306 GW which does not include DG sets. Hence, we have assumed PLF of DG set as 6% and derived Grid Equivalent installed capacity of India at present, which is 320 GW (306 GW + 14 GW of Grid equivalent capacity corresponding to 105 GW of DG sets). Based on which, the 2022 & 2030 scenarios are projected.

Salient Points of Changing Power Landscape700 – 800 GW of installed capacity is required by 2030 according to most projections

Coal based Electricity is expected to contribute more than 75% of future Electricity demand

Expansion of Reliable Grid based Electricity will eventually eliminate the need of DG sets

In view of current practice of Demand Side Management by load shedding, the current energy & peak

deficit is understated

With currently underutilized power plant capacity, there is an opportunity to meet the GoI target of

providing 24x7 power to all and also to export the power to neighboring countries

In addition to massive Renewable Capacity addition targets, there is a need to Reduce Resources,

Emissions & Effluents; Reuse whatever waste can’t be further reduced; Retrofit the existing stations to

extend their life and improve their performance and Retire the old stations and Rebuild them with more

efficient technologies

One Unit of Coal

based Electricity

The “5R” Way

Water

2.5 Litres

Coal

740 gms

Ash

260 gms

CO2

950 gms

Waste Heat

1590 kCal

Reduce

Reduce

Reduce

Reduce

Reuse

Reuse

Reuse

RenewableRetrofit

Rebuild

Every Day 3.5 BU * units of energy are Consumed in India out of which 2.9 BU are generated from Coal

* based on CEA data of annual generation of 2015

Reduce

Resources consumed, Energy wasted & Pollutants generated per ‘1’ unit of coal based electricity.

The “5R” Way Renewable

Renewable

Solar

Wind

Geo

Mini Hydro

Fuel Cell

Storage

Grid integration

Redefining Power Generation Landscape

RE Landscape

Installed RE

% is of Total Installed Capacity

Source : http://powermin.nic.in

3.9 GW

44 GW

2002 2016 2022 2030

175 GW

265 GW

RE Targets

14.5%

30% +

30% +

2 %

Solar Wind Small Hydro Bioenergy

8

27

4 5

100

60

5 10

151

91

815

2016 2022 2030

Installed

Capacity (GW)

The 2030 projections are based on portfolio share of 2022

India’s Present RE installed capacity is 44 GW. GOI targets for RE is 175 GW by 2022. And based on our per capita projections for 2030, the RE capacity would be 265 GW. This graph shows the portfolio share of Solar, Wind, Small Hydro & Bioenergy for 2016, 2022 & 2030. The portfolio share (in % terms) of 2030 has been kept same as that of 2022.

RenewableDistributed Generation

No green house gas

No Effluents

No Fuel Cost

Perpetual Source

Low cost of maintenance

Low Power Density

Huge Capex

Roof top solar integration

Real Time data and MIS

Viable storage Storage response Time

Cyclic demand E-waste

Renewable capacity Target of 175GW by 2022 requires resolution of some of the issues for its successful implementation..

Financial institutions may debate to fund long term loans as

they may not be confident about the viability of the project.

Suitable incentives for

domestic rooftop installations

Fossil RE

COG

Fuel Charges

Capacity Charges

Considered for

Merit Order

Total COG to compete with Variable

charges of Fossil power to avoid the

risk of backing down

Backing down risks investment, thus

discouraging interest

Fixed cost (at least 50% as in Hydro)

recovery based on committed generation,

incentive & penalty for variation from

annual commitment may be the solution

Major Challenges faced by RE at present & probable solution for the same

The “5R” Way Reduce

Fuel

Emissions

Water

Land

Cost

Manpower

Reduce


Reduce : CO2

36 - 39 %39 - 41 %

41 - 43 %43 - 46 %

680 - 720645 - 680

620 - 645590 - 620

930-970880-930

850-880800-830

Sub-Critical Super-Critical USC A-USC

CO2 Emission

(g/kWh) *

Specific Coal

(g/kWh)

Gross Efficiency

* CO2 Emission on Net Basis & Rest on Gross Basis

Graph for Technology wise CO2 emission, Specific Coal consumption & Efficiency

Less than 1% of

water on earth

is fresh water

Power Industry is highly water intensive but water

consumption Norms are becoming stringent

Installed before

1.1.2017

3.5 m3/MWhr

Installed after

1.1.2017

2.5 m3/MWhr

Reduce: Water

ACCSTP & Grey

water Sea WaterRain Water

Harvesting

Possible Mitigations

Poor

Heat Rate

Increased

Processing CostLimited

potential

Biodiversity Issues &

Locational Constraints

Break-through Technologies are still required

Water

Recovery

Capturing water

from CT

evaporation

About 70% of

earth is covered

with water

Stringent Water consumption norms for reducing water usage in India. Red highlighted bullets are the possible mitigation for water reduction. However, those have certain limitation, which has been highlighted below the bullet. Hence, to address those issues – the Break-through technologies are still required.

SOLAR

THERMAL

WIND

Additional Land

requirement for power

stations by 2022

Reduce : Land Possible Mitigations: Compact layouts

Floating PV/ Rooftop PV

Solar – Wind Hybrid

GIS technologies

Vertical storage of Coal

100% Ash Utilisation

32.5 GW81,250 Acres

111.5 GW55,750 Acres

92 GW460,000 Acres

Assumptions: Thermal : 0.5 Acre/MW | Solar : 5 Acres/ MW | Wind : 2.5 Acres/ MW

Source : data.worldbank.org

Ara

ble

lan

d(h

ecta

res/

per

son

) 2.88

0.98

0.34 0.17 0.16

2

0.48

0.123 0.14 0.08

Australia USA India Germany China

1961 2013

Total 5,97,000 Acres of land

required for power stations by 2022

1980s

Post 2000

Post 2015

1.6 Acre/ MW

Reducing Land Requirement for Thermal Plants

1.6

0.9

0.5

In Acre/MW

Upper graph indicates the per capita arable land in various parts of the world (as per world bank report). Lower graph indicates the additional minimum requirement of Land for future capacity addition target of 2022 considering 1 acre/MW for thermal, 5 acres/ MW solar & 2.5 acres/MW wind power plants. And the possible mitigation for Land issue also have been highlighted.

The “5R” Way Reuse

Reuse

Heat

Ash

Water

Land

Waste


ESP

Ash : 2.3 MTPA

CO2 : 7 MTPA

Water Evaporation

17.9 MTPA

Water Make-up 18.6

MTPA

Heat Lost

2.7 x 106 MkCal PA

Heat Lost

8.9 x 106 MkCal PA

Coal

5.5 MTPA

Moisture Extraction

from CT

Flue Gas for Desalination /

Air conditioning / Coal drying

Moisture Extraction

from Coal

Using CO2 for EOR,

Methane, Ethanol

production

Reuse of Gypsum

Reusing for Bricks,

Cement & Aluminum

extraction Land Reuse Technologies

for Retired Power Plants

ORC

Figures calculated for 1000 MW subcritical unit

The figures in this diagram correspond to 1000 MW sub-critical unit. The Green buttons indicates the Reuse Potential for which Technologies are required.

The “5R” Way Retrofit

FGD

SCR

ZLD

ESP

Automation

Electricals

Retrofit


Changing Environment Norms : A Challenge

( mg/ Nm³) Installed before 31.12.2003 Installed after 01.01.2003 &

upto 31.12.2016

To be installed

from 01.01.2017

Unit Size < 500 MW > 500 MW < 500 MW > 500 MW All

SO2 600 200 600 200 100

NOx 600 300 100

SPM 100 50 30

Mercury -- -- -- 0.03

ZLD -- -- -- 0

ESPDe-NOx FGDSTACK

BOILER

Present Environment Norms with respect to earlier.

Retrofit for De-SOX & De-NOx

Staggered implementation required in view of

power supply availability & equipment supply

chain

SOx NOxShort Time Line for Implementation of FGD

systems

Space Constraints

Huge Capacity to Add (Installation of FGD on

over 2 lakh MW capacity)

Huge Requirement of limestone & disposal of

gypsum. Supply chain & disposal logistics to

be tied up

Additional water consumption in FGD

Available SCR technologies for reducing NOx

emissions aren’t proven for Indian high Ash coal

SCR Installations : extensive change in duct

work & ID fan

Huge requirement of Hazardous Ammonia, its

handling & storage

(2500 TPA ammonia for a 500 MW unit)

Rebuild

Decommission

Replace

Drone Survey

Pre Fab

Trenchless

Smart Infra

The “5R” Way Rebuild


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

<10 years 10-20 years 20-30 years 30-40 years 40-50 years >50

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear

By 2030 more than

32,830 MW Coal capacity

aging above 40 years

Source : IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015 & CEA report dated. Sept. 2015

REBUILD… a Necessity

As per CEA report (Sept’2015), as on 31.03.2015, 32,830 MW thermal capacity is > 25 years old, which shall be > 40 years old by 2030. The graph shown here is from IEA report 2015 on age profile of thermal capacity in India.

Less

efficient

Stations

with higher

fuel cost

Not meeting

Environment

norms

Retire &

Rebuild

Reasonable

Efficiency

Pit head

stations

Possibility of

meeting

Environment

norms

Life Extension

through Retrofit

Retirement Vs Life Extension decision to be based on

technical merit & affordability on case to case basis

REBUILD & RETROFIT

Beyond the Blue Globe The 5R Way

.

Future’s World

World today

We Have Only One Earth to Live So We Better Start Taking Care of It

THANK YOU

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