jma tsunami warning servicessharepoint.iingen.unam.mx/proyectos/tohoku2011... · 2011. 9. 8. ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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JMA Tsunami Warning Services
Tomoaki OZAKISenior Coordinator for Tsunami Forecast Modeling
Japan Meteorological Agency
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Diet
Cabinet
Courts
Ministry of the Environment
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Justice
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Telecommunications
Cabinet Office
Marine Accident Inquiry Agency
Japan Coast Guard
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Labour Relations Commission for Seafarers
Organization Chart of the Government of Japan
Ministry of Defence
Fire and Disaster Management Agency
Supervising national disaster management Responsible for local
governments’ disaster management
Issuance of tsunami warnings/advisories
Building tsunami resistant infrastructures such as dikes
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Tectonic Setting of Japan
(Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion)
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Time Sequence of Earthquake Informationand Tsunami Warning in JMA
Earthquake and Seismic Intensity Information
TsunamiWarning Seismic Intensity
Information
Earthquake Information(Hypocenter and Magnitude )
Tsunami Information (Estimated Tsunami Heights and Arrival Times)
Earthquake Early Warning
Seismic Intensity Information at each Site
Tsunami Information (Observed Tsunami Heights and Arrival Times)
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Seismic Network in Japan
●:津波地震観測装置等(220地点)(内多機能型地震計215地点)▲:海底地震計(3式)■:群列地震観測システム(1式)◆:各種特殊地震計(1式)
Seismic stationOcean-bottom seismic sensorSeismic array system
Standard Station
Sensors
■:JMA ----- 622●:Local Government ---- 2,919●:NIED ----- 775Total : 4,316
JMA’s Seismic Network
Seismic Intensity Stations
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Earthquake Data Processing System
Tokyo
Osaka
• To process seismological data, and make and issue earthquake and tsunami information, JMA developed EPOS (Earthquake Phenomena Observations System).
• EPOS is located in Tokyo and Osaka. Tokyo-EPOS and Osaka-EPOS work in parallel, and function as back-up system one another.
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The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
Determination of Hypocenter and Magnitude
P-phase arrival timeS-phase arrival timeMaximum amplitude
For each station :
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Preparation -- Create Tsunami Database
distribution of assumed faults
1,500 (horizontal direction)× 6 (vertical direction, 0-100 km)
× 4 (magnitude) × some mechanism= about 100,000 scenarios
Calculate Crustal Movement for each Assumed Fault
Computer Simulation of Tsunami PropagationTsunami
DatabaseTsunamiDatabase
Arrival Time&
Height
Database for Tsunami Warning
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Tsunami source
- Crustal deformation on the sea floor calculated by the elastic theory (Okada, 1985)
- Initial tsunami height distribution is assumed to be same shape as the sea floor deformation
Fault Parameter and Tsunami Source
given by scaling lawlog L= 0.5M-1.9 (M:magnitude) W = L/2logD = 0.5M-3.2
Fault model- Reverse fault
given by epicenter
given in advance
45degree (fixed)
90degree (fixed)
Dip angle is set which general tsunami most effectively.λ=0(strike-slip), 20 and 80 are also assumed.
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Strike angle (degree)
Strike Angle (φ) of the Assumed Faults
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Interpolation for Cases Far from the Shore
Estimation of arrival time ---> choose the severest (earliest) case
6.2 6.8 7.4 8.0
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where, logL = 0.5M – 1.9
D
(Spacing between the hypothetical epicenters)
The maximum extent of the possible fault
Lepicenter
Light blue area is searched
(whose centers are involved in a light
orange area)
1 2
3 4
5
f(epicenter) = max{1,2,3,4,5}:Maximum Risk Method
Maximum Risk Method for Cases Close to the ShoreMaximum risk method is used in case epicenter is near the coast.
It is because starting point of the fault rupture cannot be known immediately.
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Estimation of Tsunami Height at the Coast
Application of Green’s Law
Tsunami numerical simulation
Forecast Point(Height: H1,Depth: h1)
Coastal Point(Height:H,Depth:h)
14 1 H
hhH =
Forecast Point(H1、h1)
Coastal Point(H、h)
JMA substitute 1m for h
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66 Regional Blocks for Tsunami Warning/Advisory
Estimated TsunamiHeight
Major Tsunami"3m", "4m", "6m", "8m",
"over 10m"
Tsunami "1m", "2m"
"0.5m"
Type of Tsunami Bulletin
TsunamiWarning
Tsunami Advisory
Tsunami Warning Classification
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: Tide Gauges(on the coast) -- 172JMA (77), Others(95)
: GPS Buoy -- 12: Tsunameter -- 12
JMA (6), ERI (2), JAMSTEC (4)Total: -- 196
(12/05/2011)
Tsunami Monitoring Network in Japan
Tide Gauges
GPS BuoyTsunameter
Tsunameter data is under evaluation
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Residentsin coastal areas at risk
satellite
TV broadcasting
Police, Fire offices
Local Governments
etc.Radio Stations
Dedicated Telephone Line
Central Government
Loud SpeakersSirens
On TV, radio, etc.
JMA as the National Center
Dissemination of Tsunami Warningand Earthquake Information
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JMA
Provision of Tsunami Bulletins to countriesaround the Northwest Pacific and the Indian Ocean
Global Seismic Network
Sea Level Stations
Indian Ocean
Northwest Pacific Ocean
Analysis・Hypocenter・Magnitude・Evaluation of Tsunamigenic Potential・Tsunami Observation etc.
Tsunami Bulletins(NWPTA)*1(TWI)*2
Contribute to the mitigation of tsunami disasters of countries around the Northwest Pacific and the Indian Oceans
Data
Japanese Seismic Network
*1) NWPTA: Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory*2) TWI: Tsunami Watch Information for the Indian Ocean
Pacific Tsunami WarningCenter (PTWC)
Information Exchange
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EEW
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※Strong tremors may hit areas close to the earthquake focus at the same time as the Earthquake Early Warning.
An EEW is provided a few seconds to a few tens of seconds before the S-wave or strong tremor arrival.
The EEW System automatically calculates the earthquake epicenter and magnitude from the P-waves detected near the epicenter, then estimates the strengths of following ground shaking (seismic intensities) at numbers of cities, towns and villages.
① ②
Concept of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)
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Seismic Intensity Information
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5 lower 5 upper 6 lower 6 upper
JMA Seismic Intensity Scale
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Network of Seismic Intensity Meter■:JMA -- 628●:Local Government -- 2,844●:NIED -- 778Total: 4,250(2010/07/01)
Seismic Intensity Meter
Seismic Intensity (1)
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Earthquake Information
Metropolitan Police Department,Fire and Disaster Management Agency
Cabinet Office1.5minSeismicIntensityInformation
TsunamiWarning
Cabinet Secretariat
Estimation of damages4
5lower
5lower
4
Announcement by TV or Radio
Investigation of damages
Investigation of damages
Call of an urgent gathering team6lower
Investigation of damages
EQ.
Ministry of Defense
Japan Coast Guard
NHK a broadcasting company
Emergency Operation Triggered by Seismic Intensity Information
3min
5min
24
3
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Shake Map
The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008 M:7.2 Depth : 8km
Distribution of Seismic Intensity(observed point data)
Distribution of Seismic Intensity(plane value estimated from observed data)
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