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Precipitation variability in the second half of the 20th century: changes in seasonality and extremes. Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

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Precipitation variability in the second half of the 20th century: changes in seasonality and extremes. Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz. INSPIRATIONS:. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Precipitation variability in the second half of the 20th

century: changes in seasonality and extremes.

Joanna Wibig

Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology

University of Lodz

Page 2: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

According to TAR IPCC (Folland et. al, 2001) precipitation in land areas of the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes has increased. This increase was estimated on 12%. The changes in precipitation totals are connected with changes in their distribution between seasons. There are some indications that in warmer climate extreme precipitation events can be more frequent and the share of heavy precipitation events in annual totals shoud be greater.

INSPIRATIONS:

Page 3: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

The aim of this presentation is to check these statements

• Has the total precipitation in Europe increased or decreased significantly and where such changes occurred?

• Has the seasonal distribution of precipitation changed significantly?

• Have the highest daily totals increased?

• Have the share of heavy precipitation events in total precipitation changed significantly?

• Are these changes related to circulation variability?

• Are these changes related to global or regional warming trends?

Page 4: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

DATA:

The daily precipitation data in the period 1951-2000, mainly from the ECAD (European Climate Assessment Dataset)Klein Tank, A.M.G., et al., 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int. J. Climatol., 22: 1441-1453.

Polish records: Lodz, Szczecin, Suwalki, Wroclaw, Przemysl(Institute of Meteorology and Water Management)

Page 5: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

2 0 0 2 0 4 0

2 0 0 2 0 4 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

Data localization

Page 6: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

KNMI Climate Explorer Vinnikov global temperature monthly index (RusData-TMZ_global).htmK.M.Lugina, 1999: Some features of zonal changes in the surface air temperatures under the global warming. Bulletin of St. Petersburg University, series 7, Geology and Geography, vol. 4, No 28.St. Petersburg. [in Russian]

Temperature indices:

Climate Research UnitJones, P.D. and Moberg, A., 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate 16, 206-223.

•Global temperature anomalies (monthly and annual data)

•Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (monthly and

annual data

•30-60N band temperature anomalies (monthly data)

Page 7: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Circulation index:

Index of the NAO based on the difference of normalized sea level pressures (SLP) between Ponta Delgada, Azores and Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik, Iceland calculated on the base on three-monthly data (the interesting one and two earlier). The NAO Index Data were provided by the Climate Analysis Section, NCAR, Boulder, USA, Hurrell J W, 1995: Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation, Science: 269: 676-679.

Page 8: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Mann – Kendall test

n

2i

1i

1jji xxsignS

where

xxif1xxif0xxif1

xxsign

ji

ji

ji

ji

Page 9: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Under the null hypothesis of randomness the S

has a normal distribution with the mean value μs

and variance σs2 given by:

0s

18

5n21nn2s

Page 10: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient

NN

D61r 3s

N

1i

2SiRiD

Ri, Si – rank series of analysed series

Page 11: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

year

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

CHANGES in PRECIPITATION TOTALS

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 12: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

W inter

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

CHANGES in PRECIPITATION TOTALS

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 13: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

D ecem ber

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

January

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

February

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

WINTER

Page 14: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

Spring

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

CHANGES in PRECIPITATION TOTALS

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 15: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

M arch

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

April

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

M ay

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

SPRING

Page 16: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

Sum m er

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

CHANGES in PRECIPITATION TOTALS

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 17: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

June

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

July

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

August

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

SUMMER

Page 18: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

Autum n

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

CHANGES in PRECIPITATION TOTALS

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 19: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

Septem ber

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

O ctober

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

N ovem ber

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

AUTUMN

Page 20: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Amplitude

Indices of seasonality:

minmax RR

R max – the greatest monthly total

R min – the lowest monthly total

Page 21: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

Quotient of winter to summer precipitation

JJA

DJFR

R

Quotient of autumn to spring precipitation

MAM

SONR

R

R DJF, R MAM, R JJA, R SON – winter, spring, summer and

autumn total precipitation, respectively

Page 22: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

Amplitude

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.8

3

1.6

6

2.4

9

3.3

2

4.1

5

4.9

8

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 23: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

W inter/Summer

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 24: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

Autumn/Spring

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 25: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

daily max

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 26: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

daily max / annual total

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 27: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

daily 3 max / annual total

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 28: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

daily 10 max / annual total

-4.9

8

-4.1

5

-3.3

2

-2.4

9

-1.6

6

-0.8

3

-0.0

0

0.83

1.66

2.49

3.32

4.15

4.98

expressed in Mann-Kendall test values - values greater (lower) than 1.66 (-1.66) mean

statisticaly significant increase (decrease)

Page 29: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

annual prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

annual prec - globtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

annual prec - 30-60temp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Rank correlation coefficients between annual precipitation totals and mean temperature of the zone 30-60 NH, all NH and global, respectively

Page 30: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

annual prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

annual prec - globtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

annual prec - 30-60temp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Regions of significant relations between annual precipitation totals and mean temperature of the zone 30-60 NH, all NH and global, respectively

Page 31: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

winter prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

spring prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

summer prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

autumn prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Page 32: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

winter prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

spring prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

summer prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

autumn prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 33: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

January prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

March prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

January prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

March prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 34: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

April prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

May prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

April prec-NAO

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

May prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 35: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

June prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

August prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

June prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

August prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 36: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

October prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

November prec-NAO

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

October prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

November prec-NAO

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 37: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

The greatest one-day precipitation related to NH temperature anomalies

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

1 day extreme prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

1 day extreme prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 38: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

The share of 10 daily extremes in annual total in relation to NH temperature anomalies

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

10 day relative prec - NHtemp

-1.0

0

-0.8

0

-0.6

0

-0.4

0

-0.2

0

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

20 0 20 40

20 0 20 40

40

50

60

70

40

50

60

70

10 day relative prec - NHtemp

-0.2

0

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Page 39: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

The annual precipitation totals have a tendency to an increase in in the north of Europe and a decrease at the south, but these changes are statistically significant over the very small area of continent only.

Within seasons: the annual pattern is present on winter maps (DJFM). Tendency to drying in summer (generally nonsignificant but with warming tendency can be related to significant water deficit). In autumn tendency to wetter climate has appeared whereas during spring slight dryness can be observed (April and May).

There is a tendency to seasonal redistribution of precipitation during the year. The proportion of winter to summer precipitation inceases in the north and decreases at the south. The opposite is true when the proportion of autumn to spring precipitation is considered.

CONCLUSIONS:

Page 40: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

The idea that the greater proportion of precipitation falls in heavy precipitation events is not confirmed in Europe.

There is an evident tendency that in warmer climate more precipitation will fall in the north and less in the south of Europe. This pattern is present also in winter and spring.

During winter the NAO is related to above normal precipitation in the central and northern part of Europe and below normal at the south. In summer and autumn the dry conditions dominate over southern and central Europe and only over the north it is a tendency to wetter conditions.

Page 41: Joanna Wibig Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz

The work was supported by the Polish Ministry of Education and Sciences Under Grant PBZ-KBN-086/P04/2003