job polarization in oregon

8/13/2019 Job Polarization in Oregon

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Job Polarization in OregonOregon Economic Forum

October 24th, 2013

Josh Lehner

Oregon Off

DisclaimerThe views expressed in this presentation are the views of

the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the

State of Oregon, the Governor or the Legislature.


2/23

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

Management

Health Practitioners

Legal

Arch / Eng

Comp / Math

Business & Finance

Scientists

Construction

Teachers

Protective Service

Install, Maint, Repair

Arts, Design, Ent

Community Service

Admin SupportProduction

Transportation

Health Support

Sales

Bldg Maint

Agriculture

Personal Care

Food Prep

Occupations & Median Wages

State: $35,650

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15

2010-12 Growt

State: 2.6%

Oregon OffSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


3/23

Most Pronounced In Recess

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%TOTAL High Wage Upper Middle Lower Middle Low Wage

Changes in Recession (2008-2010)

Oregon U.S.0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

TOTAL High Wage Upper Middle Low

Changes in Recovery (201

Oregon U.S.

Oregon OffSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


4/23

What is Job Polarization?

Shrinking opportunities in the middle

Larger losses in recession, slower growth in expa

Growth concentrated at the high and low ends

Reshaping the state and national economy for

MIT Professor David Autor (and colleagues)

Oregon Off


5/23

Technology & Globalization

Why is it Occurring?

Routine Tasks

- Organizing, storing,

retrieving, manipulating

information

- Exactly defined physical

movements- Routine task-intensive

- Blue- and white-collar

- Computers excel at

these

Manual Tasks

- Situational ad

- Visual/Langu

recognition

- Dexterity

- In-person int- Skills not scar

- Computers ca

- Generally low

Abstract Tasks

- Problem solving

- Intuition

- Persuasion

- Creativity

- Typically highlyeducated

- Analytical capability

- Benefit from computers

Source: Autor, David and David Dorn. How Technology Wrecks the Middle Class. New York Times24 August 2013.


6/23

Different Types of Polarizat

Replacing middle-wage jobs with high-wage jgreat thing, on net

Replacing with low-wage jobs is the problem

Occurs for some segments of the labor force

Measure for Good Polarization:

Changes in High-wage + Middle-Wage


7/23

Oregon Polarizing just like the

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

High Wage Upper Middle Lower Middle Low Wage

Job Growth by Wage Group (1980 - 2010)

Or

U.S

Oregon OffSource: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. Census Bureau


8/23


9/23

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Job Growth 2000-2010

Oregon U.S.

but weak 2000s reversed some

Oregon OffSource: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bottom Quintile Middle Quintile4thQuintile

Good Polarization 200


10/23

Regiona

Polarizat

pronounmetro a Also w

high-are c

Rural arereplacinwage joblow-wag-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


Occupational Change (2000-2012)

Metro Oregon

Oregon

Nonmetro Oregon

Oregon OffMetro Oregon: Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


11/23

H

Share

worki

Busin

Profe

Census

CommMicrod


12/23

Mid

Share

worki

Prote

Admi

Const

and T

occup

Census

Comm

Microd


13/23

Lo

Share

worki

Buildi

Perso

Agricu

Census

Comm

Microd


14/23

What Do We Do?

O i W d d i


15/23

Management

Health

Practitioners

Legal

Arch / EngComp / Math

Business /

Finance

Scientists

ConstructionTeachers

Protective

Install & Repair

Arts, Design, Ent

CommunityService

Admin SupportProduction

Trans. Health Support

Sales

Food Prep

Bldg Maint

Personal CareAg

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%

MedianWage,2012

Share with Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Occupations, Wages and Education

Oregon Off

Education, E

Education

Wide differeformal educwithin similagroups

Wide differewages withineducation gr

O ti W d Ed ti


16/23

Management

Health

Practitioners

Legal

Arch / EngComp / Math

Business /

Finance

Scientists

TeachersArts, Design, Ent

CommunityService

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%

MedianWage,2012



Oregon Off

High Educa

Attainm

Technology assoccupations

Wide range of similar educatibackgrounds

Management

STEM

Lifestyle occup

O ti W d Ed ti


17/23

ConstructionTeachers

Protective

Install & Repair

Arts, Design, Ent

CommunityService

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%

MedianWage,2012



Oregon Off

Skilled laborformal educa

Blue-collar

Repetitive

situationa

Apprenticthe job tra

Can be thou

population d

Upper Middl

Jobs


18/23

Population Driven Middle-Wage

OR

US

R = 0.3603

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%UpperMiddle-WageJobGrowth

Population Growth

Upper Middle-Wage Jobs and Population

Excluding Construction, 2000 - 2012

Oregon Off

Popula

Na

Do

Mi

IntMi

Occupations Wages and Education


19/23

Lower Middl

Jobs

Largest wage

the most imppolarization Repetitive ro

Admin SuppSales

Educational A

Blue-collar: White-colla

Lower Middlethought of asSupport jobs

Admin Support

Production

Trans.Health Support

Sales

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%

MedianWage,2012

Share with High School or Less


Oregon Off

Occupations Wages and Education


20/23

Low-Wage

Formal educa

requirements Food Prep &

some college

Technologicaladvancementjobs

Face-to-face isituational adand dexterityfrom automat

Food Prep

Bldg Maint

Personal Care Ag

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%

MedianWage,2012

Share with High School or Less


Oregon Off


21/23

Transitions Are Not Costle

Mediandown 1

$14.5

64% too

Medi

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

P

ercentofWorkers

Hourly Wage

Former RV Workers Take A Pay CutDistribution of Hourly Earnings

2007q3 (RV Manufacturing) 2011q3 (Different Industry)

Oregon OffSource: Oregon Employment Department


22/23

The Outlook Most Oregonians will continue to be employed in middle

occupations

Over extended horizon, polarization will continue to put on these middle-wage jobs Growth concentrated at the high and low ends

Near-term outlook is for somewhat muted polarization, gcyclical rebound

Education helps obtain high-wage but not necessarily mid Need to match career training with business needs

Oregon Off


23/23

More Information

Report released todaywww.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

Supplemental information on regions wOregon and state comparisons in near f
http://www.oregoneconomicanalysis.com/http://www.oregoneconomicanalysis.com/

job polarization in oregon

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