Preliminary Summary ofPreliminary Summary of2000-04 Baseline2000-04 Baseline

Regional Haze Regional Haze Monitoring DataMonitoring Data

AoH Meeting – Tempe, AZAoH Meeting – Tempe, AZNovember 16/17, 2005November 16/17, 2005

Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

OverviewOverview

Review of EPA Regional Haze Rule Review of EPA Regional Haze Rule guidanceguidance

Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 baseline databaseline data

Sample glide path graphics from Sample glide path graphics from VIEWSVIEWS

Review of RHR Guidance – Review of RHR Guidance – Program Visibility GoalsProgram Visibility Goals

Define current conditions at each Class I Define current conditions at each Class I area using the 2000-04 baseline periodarea using the 2000-04 baseline period

Define “natural conditions”Define “natural conditions” Improve visibility such that the average Haze Improve visibility such that the average Haze

Index for the 20% worst days in the baseline Index for the 20% worst days in the baseline period reach “natural conditions” by 2064period reach “natural conditions” by 2064

Ensure that visibility on the 20% best days Ensure that visibility on the 20% best days does not degradedoes not degrade

Periodically assess the improvement in Periodically assess the improvement in visibility between the baseline period and visibility between the baseline period and 2064 and show that “reasonable progress” is 2064 and show that “reasonable progress” is being achieved (reasonable progress goal, being achieved (reasonable progress goal, RPG)RPG)

Review of RHR Guidance – Review of RHR Guidance – Tracking ProgressTracking Progress

Assemble daily speciated data and monthly Assemble daily speciated data and monthly f(RH) valuesf(RH) values

Perform allowed data substitutions, if warrantedPerform allowed data substitutions, if warranted Sites must have at least 3 of 5 years of Sites must have at least 3 of 5 years of

“complete” data“complete” data Calculate daily extinction, convert to Haze Index Calculate daily extinction, convert to Haze Index

(deciviews)(deciviews) Determine the average Haze Index of the 20% Determine the average Haze Index of the 20%

worst and best visibility days for each complete worst and best visibility days for each complete year; average annual values for baselineyear; average annual values for baseline

Determine Glide Path by comparing the 2000-04 Determine Glide Path by comparing the 2000-04 baseline value with natural conditionsbaseline value with natural conditions

Schematic of Glide PathSchematic of Glide Path

From: From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze RuleRegional Haze Rule, EPA 2003, EPA 2003

Review of RHR Guidance – Review of RHR Guidance – Natural Conditions (Default Natural Conditions (Default

Approach)Approach) Begin with default values for annual aerosol Begin with default values for annual aerosol

concentrations (same across entire western concentrations (same across entire western U.S.)U.S.)

Calculate annual extinction; convert to Calculate annual extinction; convert to deciviewsdeciviews

Compute the 20% worst and best visibility Compute the 20% worst and best visibility (in deciviews) from this annual average and (in deciviews) from this annual average and a default regional standard deviation of a default regional standard deviation of daily deciview valuesdaily deciview values

Small variation in western sites’ estimated Small variation in western sites’ estimated natural conditions caused by f(RH) function natural conditions caused by f(RH) function onlyonly

Natural Conditions (Default) – Natural Conditions (Default) – Annual Aerosol Annual Aerosol

ConcentrationsConcentrations

From: From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze RuleRegional Haze Rule, EPA 2003, EPA 2003

Review of RHR Guidance – Review of RHR Guidance – RefinementsRefinements

RHR guidance allows for refinements of the RHR guidance allows for refinements of the steps taken to track progress and define natural steps taken to track progress and define natural conditions – but states must make their case that conditions – but states must make their case that a refined method yields more reasonable resultsa refined method yields more reasonable results

Possible refinements:Possible refinements: The IMPROVE steering committee is currently The IMPROVE steering committee is currently

reviewing the extinction equation and is expected to reviewing the extinction equation and is expected to release a new versionrelease a new version

Ivar Tombach has researched the question of natural Ivar Tombach has researched the question of natural conditions across the U.S. and has offered a variety of conditions across the U.S. and has offered a variety of options for refinementoptions for refinement

Additional data substitutions for sites with less than 3 Additional data substitutions for sites with less than 3 years datayears data

Other considerations must be considered such as cost Other considerations must be considered such as cost and feasibility of emissions reductionsand feasibility of emissions reductions

Results shown here are preliminaryResults shown here are preliminary All baseline (2000-04) IMPROVE data All baseline (2000-04) IMPROVE data

have recently been revised (flow rate have recently been revised (flow rate correction)correction)

10 WRAP IMPROVE sites did not meet 10 WRAP IMPROVE sites did not meet baseline data collection criteria:baseline data collection criteria: California: PORE, KAIS, RAFACalifornia: PORE, KAIS, RAFA Montana: GLAC, FLAT, NOCH, MELAMontana: GLAC, FLAT, NOCH, MELA Oregon: CRLAOregon: CRLA Utah: CAPIUtah: CAPI Washington: NOCAWashington: NOCA

Summary of WRAP Visibility Summary of WRAP Visibility (1)(1)

2000-04 baseline visibility:2000-04 baseline visibility:Worst days (range): 9.9 to 23.5 deciviewsWorst days (range): 9.9 to 23.5 deciviewsBest days (range): 1.6 to 9.1 deciviewsBest days (range): 1.6 to 9.1 deciviews

Default natural conditions:Default natural conditions:Worst days (range): 6.8 to 8.1 deciviewsWorst days (range): 6.8 to 8.1 deciviewsBest days (range): 1.7 to 2.9 deciviewsBest days (range): 1.7 to 2.9 deciviews

Required reductions in haze index to meet Required reductions in haze index to meet 2018 RPG:2018 RPG:Worst days (range): 0.7 to 3.8 deciviewsWorst days (range): 0.7 to 3.8 deciviewsBest days (range): -0.3 to 1.7 deciviewsBest days (range): -0.3 to 1.7 deciviews

Summary of WRAP Visibility Summary of WRAP Visibility (2)(2)

Class I and Other IMPROVE

Monitoring Locations

N on-C lass I A rea

Class I A rea

AG TI1

BAD L1

BAN D 1

BLIS1

BO AP1

BR C A1

BR ID 1

BR LA1

C ABI1

C AN Y1C API1

C H IR 1

C LPE1

C O G O 1 C O R I1

C R LA1C R M O 1

D EVA1D O M E1

FLAT1

FO PE1G AM O 1

G IC L1

G LAC 1

G R BA1

G R C A2

G R SA1

G U M O 1

H EC A1

H ILL1

H O O V1

IKBA1

JAR B1

JO SH 1

KAIS1

KALM 1

LABE1

LAVO 1

LO ST1M ELA1

M EVE1

M O H O 1

M O N T1

M O R A1

M O ZI1

N O AB1

N O C A1

N O C H 1

O LYM 1

O R PI1

PASA1

PEFO 1

PIN N 1

PO R E1

Q U VA1

R AFA1

R ED W 1

R O M O 1

SAC R 1

SAG A1SAG O 1

SAG U 1

SAPE1

SAW E1

SAW T1

SEQ U 1

SIAN 1

SN PA1 SPO K1

STAR 1 SU LA1

SYC A1

TH BA1

TH R O 1TH SI1

TO N T1

TR IN 1

U LBE1

W EM I1

W H IT1

W H PA1

W H PE1

W H R I1

W IC A1

YELL2

YO SE1

ZIO N 1

D EN A1

TR C R 1TU XE1

H ALE1

H AVO 1

SIM E1

IMPROVE Monitoring IMPROVE Monitoring LocationsLocations

2000-2004 Baseline Visibility

20% W orst Days

D eciview s

N /A

9 - 13

13 - 17

17 - 21

21 - 25

Baseline Visibility: 20% Baseline Visibility: 20% Worst DaysWorst Days

Required Decrease in Haze Indexto Meet 2018 Glide Path

20% Worst Days

Deciv iews

N/A

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

RPG Improvement Required RPG Improvement Required by 2018by 2018

Variation in Baseline Visibility(Standard Deviation/Mean)

20% W orst Days

0% - 4%

4% - 8%

8% - 12%

> 12%

N /A

Variation in BaselineVariation in Baseline

Summary Summary for 20% for 20%

Best DaysBest Days2 00 0-2 00 4 B ase lin e Vis ib ility

2 0% Bes t D a ys

Deciv iews

N/A

1 - 3

3 - 5

5 - 7

7 - 10

Baseline Visibility

2018 Glide Slope Reductions

R e q uire d D e cre as e in H aze In de xto M ee t 2 01 8 G lid e P a th

20 % B e s t D a ys

Deciv iews

N/A

-0.5 - 0

0 - 0.5

0.5 - 1

1 - 1.5

1.5 - 2

WRAP Sites with WRAP Sites with Highest/Lowest 20% Worst Highest/Lowest 20% Worst

Baseline VisibilityBaseline Visibility

Site Class I Area State

2000-04 Baseline (average)

2000-04 Baseline (st. dev.)

Reduction Required by 2018

2000-04 Baseline (average)

2000-04 Baseline (st. dev.)

Reduction Required by 2018

SEQU1 Sequoia CA 23.5 0.9 3.8 8.4 0.9 1.5AGTI1 Agua Tibia CA 23.0 1.1 3.7 9.3 1.0 1.7SAGO1 San Gorgonio CA 21.6 0.8 3.3 5.6 0.6 0.8SPOK1 Spokane WA 21.0 0.5 3.1 9.0 0.7 1.5SAGA1 San Gabriel CA 19.4 1.1 2.8 5.7 1.3 0.8… … … … … … … … …

SAPE1 San Pedro Parks NM 10.7 0.5 0.9 3.3 0.4 0.3MOZI1 Mount Zirkel CO 10.6 0.8 0.8 3.5 0.8 0.4WEMI1 Weminuche CO 10.2 0.6 0.7 4.1 0.1 0.5WHRI1 White River CO 9.9 0.9 0.7 2.6 0.3 0.2DENA1 Denali AK 9.1 0.6 0.5 1.7 0.2 -0.1

20% Worst (deciviews) 20% Best (deciviews)

Glide Path for Sequoia, CAGlide Path for Sequoia, CA

2018

Glide Path for Denali, AKGlide Path for Denali, AK

2018

2004 data still 2004 data still under final under final review, but review, but expected to be expected to be accessible with accessible with VIEWS analysis VIEWS analysis tools soontools soon

Go to the Go to the VIEWS home VIEWS home page and look page and look for the for the “Development: “Development: Trends” linkTrends” link

Glide Paths on VIEWSGlide Paths on VIEWShttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/