joe twyman, yougov: fruitcakes, loonies, closet racists and winners

@JoeTwyman

Fruitcakes, Loonies, Closet Racists and Winners

Joe Twyman

Head of Political and Social Research (Europe, Middle East and Africa)

YouGov

Europe, the European Elections and the Rise of Ukip

@JoeTwyman

Sticks and Stones

‘Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruit cakes and loonies and closet racists mostly’

2

David Cameron, 4th April 2006

@JoeTwyman

What the World Thinks

@JoeTwyman4

The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)

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Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey

Sample: c1,000 British adults per month

@JoeTwyman5


April 2004 December 2013

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@JoeTwyman6



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@JoeTwyman8 -5

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R² = 0.70884020328559

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3rd Jan 2012 9th May 2014

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Source: YouGov Daily Polling for News UK

Sample: c1,500 British adults per day

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April 2004 May 2014Source: House of Commons Library

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@JoeTwyman10

The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context

European Election

Result (May 2009)

European ElectionResult

(May 2014)

Conservative 28% 24%

UKIP 17% 27%

Labour 16% 25%

Liberal Democrat 14% 7%

Green 8% 8%

@JoeTwyman11


ActualResult

YouGov

UKIP 27 27

Lab 25 26

Con 24 22

Green 8 10

Lib Dem 7 9

Average Error

1.4

@JoeTwyman12


ActualResult

YouGov ICM Opinium TNS ComRes Survation

UKIP 27 27 25 32 31 33 32

Lab 25 26 29 25 28 27 27

Con 24 22 26 21 21 20 23

Green 8 10 6 6 6 6 4

Lib Dem 7 9 7 6 7 7 9

Average Error

1.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.8

@JoeTwyman

Why They Think That

@JoeTwyman14

The Ukip Vote: Winning here?

Source: YouGov Daily Polling Fieldwork: 31st March – 30th April 2014 Sample: 8,894 British Adults

Scotland

Under 40

Voted Lab in 2010

Voted Lib Dem in 2010

ABC 1

London

Women

All

Midlands / Wales

North

Men

40-59

South excl. London

C2DE

Aged 60+

Voted Con in 2010

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

13

15

15

20

24

24

26

29

30

30

31

32

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36

42

Percentage Voting Ukip in 2014 European Elections

@JoeTwyman15

Most Important Issues Facing the Country

Source: YouGov for News UK Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British Adults

None of these

Don’t know

Transport

Family life & childcare

Tax

The environment

Crime

Pensions

Education

Europe

Housing

Welfare benefits

Health

Immigration & Asylum

The economy

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1

2

3

7

10

11

12

14

15

17

18

28

34

51

57

Percentage of All Voters

@JoeTwyman16

Most Important Issues Facing the Country

Source: YouGov for News UK Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British Adults

None of these

Don’t know

Transport

Family life & childcare

Tax

The environment

Crime

Pensions

Education

Europe

Housing

Welfare benefits

Health

Immigration & Asylum

The economy

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1

0

2

3

6

4

10

12

5

49

13

28

25

85

45

Percentage of Ukip Voters

@JoeTwyman17

Support for Europe versus Support for UKIP

April 2004 December 2013Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey


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UKIP Support

Approve of Brit Membership of EU

Disapprove of Brit Membership of EU

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The Three Ds

Dissatisfied Distrusting Disapproving

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@JoeTwyman19

In general, how much do you trust leading politicians from the main parties in Britain to tell the truth?

Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28th April – 6th May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British Adults

GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP0

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20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 4 2 2 0

20

36

18

34

4

36

40

39

35

28

36

18

3720

67

62 4

91

Trust a great deal Trust to some extent Do not trust much Do not trust at all Don’t know

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@JoeTwyman20

On balance, do you think Britain is a better or worse place in which to grow up than it was thirty or forty years ago?

Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28th April – 6th May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British Adults


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36

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8 5 6 61

It is better today than 30-40 years ago Neither better nor worseIt is worse today Don’t know

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@JoeTwyman21

From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is?

Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2013 Sample: 1,765 British Adults


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Safe (All) Unsafe (All) Don’t know

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From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is?

Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2013 Sample: 1,765 British Adults


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Dangerous

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@JoeTwyman

The 2014 European Elections in Context

The rise of Ukip is on a different scale to previous occasions and is not just about Europe

Part of a wider scepticism across many parts of Europe

European Elections have major implications for 2015 General Election

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@JoeTwyman

Email: [email protected]: @JoeTwyman

joe twyman, yougov: fruitcakes, loonies, closet racists and winners

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