john barry - queen's university belfast
TRANSCRIPT
Energy and the Economy in NI: the ‘carbon
energy regime’
Centrality of Fossil Fuel Energy
Name one thing in this room not
made in whole or part, or
transported in whole or part
without the use of oil?
Imported fossil fuels and local fuel poverty
Over 90% of home heating in NI depends on imported oil
contributes to high levels of fuel poverty (over 40% of
households).
Country Number (millions) %
England 3.2 15
Scotland 0.6 25
Wales 0.4 29
N. Ireland 0.3 42
Our energy ‘trilemma’
Energy security
Affordability
Sustainability – moving beyond carbon
energy
Fossil Fuel Dependency
of NI
“Due to our high dependence on foreign fuel
(88% dependence on oil and gas imports in
the South and 100% dependence on gas
imports in the North), all-island Ireland is
highly vulnerable in terms of energy security.
The majority of our imports come from within EU
and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This helps to reduce our energy security exposure.
However, our vulnerability is increasing as EU and OECD sources of fossil fuels diminish.”
North South Inter-Parliamentary Association (2013), Energy Security, pp.5-6
Energy insecurity in NI
Northern Ireland’s security of supply at risk from 2016 and in deficit from 2021. There are three reasons for this deficit:
1. Despite the Republic of Ireland experiencing a surplus of generation, limitations in interconnection between the two jurisdictions restrict the amount of generation that can be transferred to Northern Ireland. The delay in the North-South Interconnector is a barrier to resolving this issue.
2. EU Emissions Directive will, from 2016, result in the reduction in generation capacity from the Ballylumford plant, and restrict generation at the Kilroot plant.
3. Faults on the Moyle Interconnector, which connects Northern Ireland and Scotland, have halved its capacity. Full restoration of this capacity is not likely to be complete until 2017
Energy as a ‘socio-technical system’
Recognition of energy as a socio technical system, embedded in
a complex multi dimensional multi actor and multi-level arena
(from global to local government to households), with dynamic
properties.
“the key choices involved in energy transitions are not so much between
different fuels but between different forms of social, economic, and political
arrangements built in combination with new energy technologies. In other
words, the challenge is not simply what fuel to use but how to organize a
new energy system around that fuel”.
(Miller, Iles and Jones, 2013: 139:
emphasis added)
Transition Management
How the state/government can manage the process of
transitioning from one energy regime to another
Decades long process – 20-30 years
Complex, large number of actors – producers and consumers
Issues of technological innovation, grid and electricity
infrastructure, social acceptance, economic viability and
energy vision based around electrification of our lives,
transport, heating and working
Some good news…..Kilroot energy storage
array officially opened today
Decarbonisation and the next industrial
revolution
Transition from ‘carbon lock in’
Power of the incumbent (and therefore powerful) existing carbon
energy provides as part of the ‘carbon energy regime’
Example of hidden and publicly less discussed carbon subsidies
International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2014
published in November 2014, fossil fuel subsidies added up to
US$ 548 billion for the year 2013 - twice as high as the total
global renewable energy market volume
http://www.aurecongroup.com/en/thinking/archive/the-transition-towards-a-sustainable-public-private-partnership-regime.aspx
http://www.aurecongroup.com/en/thinking/archive/the-transition-towards-a-sustainable-public-private-partnership-regime.aspx
The need for disruptive energy niches and a
shared energy vision for NI Low carbon energy niches as source of ‘disruptive innovations’ with the capacity to (over time ) displace and replace the incumbent carbon energy regime
Such as bioenergy sources and technologies (focus of tonight’s event)
Innovations – not just renewable energy technologies, but energy efficiency, management, energy conservation and energy reduction and changing our use and relationship to energy
Energy as a ‘socio-technical system’ not simply a fuel or energy technology
Need for a shared energy vision for NI’s future and clear roadmap
Energy system transition – innovation and abandonment
Governance of the abandonment of socio-technical
systems: fading out, termination, deconstruction
Governance of socio-technical systems: a matter of progress &
innovation
Social/Political disruptive action and the
energy transition
‘Without Vision, there the people perish’
Need for integrative, shared vision on energy futures and
energy transition amongst key energy actors
Government - central and local;
Energy suppliers – carbon and renewable; energy distributors,
Energy users – businesses and households
Short –term: Protect and ensure maximum efficiency of the
current carbon energy system even as we plan for the transition
beyond carbon
Short and medium –term: Focus on low carbon energy
transition, reducing energy demand, increase energy efficiency
and not simply focus on energy supply