john w. martin - tmrs matter... · john w. martin southeastern institute of research new planning...
TRANSCRIPT
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1
John W.
Martin
Southeastern Institute of Research
New Planning Perspective
Today’s Agenda
1
Major Trends Shaping Retirement Systems2
3 What To Do Next
The
Future
Societal
Trends
Cultural
Trends
Demographic
Trends
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2
Another Way To Understand What’s
Happening Today and What’s Most Likely to
Happen in the Future
Age cohort: 15-to-20 year span
Big events create the “bookends”
Born on the leading and tail edge - “cuspers”
What’s A Generation?
1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01
58,000,000
44,000,000
76,000,000
62,000,000
81,000,000
Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial
94 75 57 39 20
Born in the U.S.A
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Climax of personal development
75+Reconcilia-tion (making sense of life)
Ironic: There’s some good in every bad, some bad in every good – c’est la vie!
Different Seasons, Different Reasons
Source: Ageless Marketing
Stage: Age: Life Focus: Modus Operandi:
Initial personal development
Birth-25Play(learning)
Fantasy: Everything will generally work out in my favor
Social/ vocational development
25-50Work(becoming somebody)
Romantic: The world is my oyster; I can make anything work my way
Inner self/ spiritual development
50-75Work-Play(search for meaning)
Reality: Not as good as I thought; who am I, what’s my life purpose?
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Dedicated
Loyal
Practical
Dependable
Generational ValuesDedication and Sacrifice
Hard work
Patience
Respect for authority
Duty before pleasure
Honor
Culture’s Impact: Silent Generation
Defining Events
Great Depression
The New Deal
Lindbergh’s Flight
Gone with the Wind
Pearl Harbor
WWII
Hiroshima
Generational ValuesPersonal Gratification
Entitlement
Control
Work Ethic
No to Status Quo
Optimism
Defining EventsBirth of TVProsperityCold War
Political AssassinationsWatergate
Rock ‘n RollGrowth of Suburbia
Women’s LibCivil Rights
Vietnam
Culture’s Impact: Boomers
Driven
Transformational
“Self” Centered
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Risk-takers
Skeptical
Independent
Task-driven
Generational ValuesTechnosavvy
Think Globally
Self-reliance
Diversity
Pragmatic
Culture’s Impact: Gen X
Defining EventsWatergate
Single parents
Latchkey kids
MTV
AIDs
Computers
Challenger
Glasnost
Berlin Wall
Co-dependent
Purposeful
Ambitious
Generational ValuesConfidence plus
Civic duty
Achievement
Hyper connected
Multi-tasking on steroids
Fearless
Defining EventsInternet/Social Media
School violence
Over-involved parenting
Multi-culturalism
9/11attacks
Gulf War(s)
“Fame-ification”
Great Recession
Technology ++
Culture’s Impact: Millennials
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Millennials’ Orientation:
Collective
Self
Redefining Community
Sharing
Space
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Micro-Apt.
Sharing
Homes
Sharing Food
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Sharing
Rides
Source: CNW Research
38%
1985
27%
The Percentage of New Cars Sold
To 21-to-34year olds
Today
The Long-term
Future
Social
Security
Reinvented?
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New Planning Perspective
Today’s Agenda
1
Major Trends Shaping Retirement Systems2
3 What To Do Next
Implication
Impact On
Retirement
Systems
Ten
Major
Trends
Demographic
Cultural
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Shift #1
Population
Shift
U.S Population
319 Million
Source: U. S. Census Reports
Today
358 Million
2030
Source: Pitkins & Meyers USC 2011
U.S. Population Growth Projections
Immigration = Growth
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50% percent of the
state’s growth from
2000-2010 was
the result of
Natural Increase
50%percent was the result
of people moving into
the state from other
areas - Migration
Texas Growth Facts 2000-2010
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50%Migration
Texas Growth Facts 2000-2010
30%From other
states 2010-2012
20% From other
countries2010-2012
So just
10%
of Texas’
growth
coming
from other
countries(based on 2012 data)
Your Future
More
People
To Serve
Shift #2
Diversity
Shift
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Texas Racial CompositionTexas State Data Center
2050Hispanics Will Make Up
The Majority of Texans
Based on their Reality
61% 19%Millennials 4%13%
White Hispanic AsianBlack
62% 18% 6%12
%
73% 4%11%
80% 7% 4%
Gen X
Boomers
Silent
10%
9%
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The Future
Growing Need
To Reflect
Community
Diversity
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Shift #3
Urban
Shift
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2010-2040
Your Future
Increasing
Growth of
Urban Areas
Your Future
Growing
Sustainability
Issues For
Rural Areas
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Shift #4
Household
Shift
SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data
Adults Married
49%72%1972 2014
SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data
HH with Married Adults
& Their Children
19%40%1970 2012
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SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data
Birth To Unmarried Women
41%5%1941 2012
Total households: 121,084,000 (100%)
SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data
Single Headed Household
18%
SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data
Living Alone
27%
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Your Future
Family Still
At The
Center of
Everything
1970 2010
60% 60%
40% 40%
Percentage of College Degree
M F M F
Source: Dept. Of Education
Your Future
More
Female
Employees
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Your Future
More
Female
Members
Your Future
Greater
Female Focused
Communications
Audit Your
Communication Materials With A Famine Lens
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Shift #5
Age
Shift
U.S. - Life Expectancy
1900 2010
47
80
1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-81 1982-01
58,000,000
44,000,000
76,000,000
62,000,000
80,000,000
Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Gen Y
5 Gens
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2. Shifting
Birth Rates
What Will It Be Like
To Have 20% of the
Population Be
65+ Seniors?
Average Children Per Woman
2.1
3.7
2.2
In the U.S.
the population over
age 65 will grow
from 38 million today to
72 millionby 2031
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1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01
38,000,000
72,000,000
62,000,000
80,000,000
Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial
94 75 57 39 20
Born in the U.S.A
2000
U.S. Population 65+
Source: US Census
11%
2030
19%
2020
16%
2010
13%
2015
12%
2025
15%
2020
13%
Source: US Census
2030
16%
2010 Actual
10%
Texas’ Population 65+
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Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in
Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000 2040
= 20% or More
The Future of Rural Texas
2015
12%
2025
15%
2020
13%
Source: US Census
2030
22%
2010 Actual
10%
Texas’ Rural Population 65+
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Your Future
More People &
Conversations
Around Retirement
Matters and Issues
Your Future
Greater
Demand for
TMRS’
Services
Ten
Major
Trends
Demographic
Cultural
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Shift #6
Retirement
Shift
88%Plan to continue to work after they are
eligible for full retirement benefits
Source: August 2010 Charles Schwab Study
Changing Retirement Date Expectation
“When do you expect
you’ll retire?”
Boomers in
their 50s:
Boomers in
their 60s:
After age 65:
57%
85%
Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 2012
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Work after Retiring?
“Do you plan to work
after you retire?”
Boomers in
their 50s:Boomers in
their 60s:
YES/MAYBE:
84% 78%
Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 2012
Rule
of 1/33 Core Boomer Financial Segments
Your Future
De-emphasize
Retirement as
A One Time
Event
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The Future
Support
Retirement
Planning As A
Journey
Shift #7
Sustainability
Shift
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Green is
Mainstream:
80%think or act
“Green”
For Everyone
Greater
Expectation
To Be
Sustainable
Your Future
More Pressure
for “Socially
Conscious
Investing”
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The Future
Showcase
Your
True Green
Colors
TMRS Planning
Paper
Electronic
Shift #8
Increasing
Consumer
Expectations
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The Future
Build On Your
Online / Mobile
Retirement
Planning Tools
Gen Xers’ Orientation:
Self-reliant
Free-agent
Millennials’ Orientation:
Collective
Self
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Shift #9
Increasing
Consumer
Responsibility
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Responsibilities Shifting
To The Individual
Health Insurance
Company
Individual
Retirement
Company
Individual
Growing Need For
Personal Involvement
The private sector employers
always managed workers’
investments in a pension.
Retirees didn't need to make any
decisions other than when to
start receiving their benefits
Millennials Are
Not Prepared
For This
Responsibility
Source: Investor Education Foundation, a program of FINRA,
the Washington, D.C-based Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
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“The Wealth Gap”
10X
1984 2010
47X65+
Year
Olds35 and
Under
65+
Year
Olds
$28,000Average College Debt
The Future
Helping
Younger
Members
Learn
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Shift #10
Growth of
Purpose
What once was
Resume, career path,
business associates
Likes, dislikes, friends,
social circles, interest
areas, and so on
Price paid, mortgage,
taxes paid, current value
Is now very
Attitudes
Beliefs
Actions
Access
Information
Platforms
Power
Open/Transparent/Public:
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What I am
About …
Changing My
Community
Open/Transparent/Public:
Parallel Paths
As Individuals* moved down this path…
…Organizations followed
Privately-held
Beliefs, Values,
Purpose
Publically-declared
Beliefs, Values,
Purpose
* Mostly Millennials at first
Your Future
Become
Hyper-
Transparent
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Your Future
Become A
Purposeful
Brand
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Bigger than
who you are,
what you do,
how you do it.
It’s your
“WHY.”
PURPOSE
What To Do Next?
Associate With A
Purposeful Cause.
Financial
Literacy?
New Planning Perspective
Today’s Agenda
1
Major Trends Shaping Retirement Systems2
3 What To Do Next
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1Use A Generational
Lens As Part of Your
Leadership &
Diversity Training
BOOMER Employee:
Organizational Value:
Legacy & Mentoring
GEN X Employee:
Organizational Value:
Tasks & Outcomes
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MILLENNIAL Employee:
Organizational Value:
Teambuilding
& Collaboration
2Use A Generational
Lens To Better Serve
Member Segments
BOOMER Members:
Help Boomers remain “vital.”
Help them through the
de-accumulation phase…
not just an event
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GEN X Members:
Give Gen Xers the tools
and knowledge to self-
manage their account.
MILLENNIAL Member:
Focus on your relevance
today:
Showcase your values and help
educate Millennials so they, in
turn, will educate their
“collective.”
John Martin
SIR Research