Johnson Creek Prescribed Fire Project Fire and Fuels Report

Introduction: The Mississippi Bluffs Ranger District of Shawnee National Forest (Forest) proposes to burn approximately 475 acres of National Forest lands in the Johnson Creek Prescribed Fire Project. This paper describes the current and desired future conditions regarding fuel characteristics and Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC), and the expected direct, indirect, and cumulative effects to fuels resources, fire risk and fire hazard, and FRCC of implementing the proposed action. Background, Project Area, and Purpose and Need: The Johnson Creek Recreation Area comprises about 400 acres in the northern part of the Mississippi Bluffs Ranger District in Jackson County, IL. It is considered part of the Shawnee Hills Ecological Subdivision, Land Type Association 1 (Fralish et al 2002). It is in the Kinkaid Creek – Kinkaid Lake HUC 5 Watershed and features some shoreline on Kinkaid Lake itself. The majority of the project area is in the Developed Recreation (DR) Management Area, but small parts are in the Water Supply Watershed (WW) Management Area USDA Forest Service 2006).

The vegetation in the Johnson Creek Recreation Area and surrounding environs has changed over the years. Prior to settlement much of the Forest was characterized as forests and woodlands dominated by moderately spaced oaks with a diverse mix of native understory plants and grasses. There were likely areas of savannas, barrens, glades, or grassy areas interspersed in drier areas, though these probably shifted over time and space. These landscape features were created or at least maintained by frequent low-moderate intensity fires and indigenous agriculture (Parker and Ruffner 2004). The forests were likely cut over for timber or agricultural clearing during the Euro-American settlement period. After becoming part of the Shawnee National Forest, most of the land developed into oak-dominated forests and woodlands. Impoundment of the lake and creation of the campgrounds and day use areas changed some overstory characteristics. Silvicultural activities and subsequent planting led to the establishment of yellow poplar and white and shortleaf pine in various locations. In recent years some non-native species have become established and spread, and the composition and arrangement of native vegetation has also changed. Forested areas have become more shaded, and species composition has shifted towards more shade-tolerant and fire-negative species. While most areas still have oak as a dominant overstory component (except in pine or poplar plantations), few areas have significant oak regeneration, especially advanced regeneration. The areas that do are confined to south aspects and thin-soiled slopes.

Autumn olive (Elaeagnus umbellata), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), bush honeysuckles (Lonicera spp.), and multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora) have become prevalent in certain areas, particularly in and around the campgrounds and day use areas. These plants can be disruptive to native ecosystems and can crowd out native plants. In addition, these plants create thickets that are difficult to walk through and impede the view into the forest. The District has been cutting, pulling, and treating such non-native vegetation within the campground with some success. However, some of these plants will resprout, and some new plants will seed in from nearby Forest areas and private land, necessitating re-treatment of the area. The District seeks a more cost-effective and expedient method to maintain the improved conditions.

Fire-sensitive tree species such as maple, beech, and ash were once restricted to moist sites by frequent, recurring low-intensity fire. With fire suppression and land use change over the last several decades, these species have seeded in to higher landscape locations and now occupy much of the understory and midstory. These trees have increased the shade to the forest floor and limit the types of plants that can grow there, including seedlings and saplings of oaks. The District would like to restore the area to its former species composition and structure and reintroduce the processes that shaped it.

Typical mixed oak stand at Johnson Creek. Most regeneration is Pawpaw, sugar maple, yellow poplar, elm spp., or an invasive shrub

Invasive species multiflora rose (the plant here with green leaves) and autumn olive are starting to encroach on the stand shown at left.

Thin soiled, south aspect stand of Post Oak and White Oak at Johnson Creek. Note the rock visible at the surface.

Here elm, beech, and grapevines are encroaching on a white oak – black oak stand further down slope from the picture at left.

Some native but nuisance plant and animal species have flourished there, including poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) and several types of ticks. The District would also like to reduce the populations of these species near the campground and day use areas.

Proposed Action (What, Where, When, and how): The Mississippi Bluffs Ranger District of the Shawnee National Forest proposes to burn approximately 475 acres of Forest land in and around the Johnson Creek Recreation Area in T8S, R4W, Sections 11, 12, 13, and 14 (see Project Map, Attachment A). The project area may be subdivided to make burns more manageable. In addition, up to one mile of hand-constructed fireline may be necessary to contain the burn on the west and east sides and protect structures within the Recreation Area. Burns would be conducted between October 1 and April 1, and up to three burns would be conducted within the next ten years.

Existing Conditions

Fire Hazard/Fire Risk: Fire hazard describes the potential for harm or damage from a wildland fire, chiefly governed by the interaction of fuels, weather, and topography within a given area. Fire risk is the potential for occurrence within a given area coupled with fire hazard.

Fuel Characteristics: Fuel loads are generally light in the project area. 1000 and 10000 hour time lag fuels are near normal for a mature mixed oak forest, and about 2/3 of these fuels are in advanced decay classes. Wind storms in May 2009 damaged some trees and blew others over, resulting in a slight increase in woody fuel loads over most of the area. This damage was not continuous however, and will not cause a fire in the area to burn as a slash or blowdown fuel model with one exception (see below). Rather, leaf litter will be the primary carrier of a fire. Leaf litter averages about 3-4 inches deep in oak litter, while may be less than an inch in more mesic sites due to the difference in leaf structure, thickness, and resistance to decay. This fuel load is estimated at about 15-22 Tons/acre (USDA Forest Service 2009). Fires in the area should burn with low to low-moderate intensity under normal dormant season fire weather conditions, but higher under wildfire conditions. Flame Lengths are estimated at 5.6 feet and rates of spread 26.7 chains / hour under this scenario (Andrews and Bevin 2005). Fire hazard in this area may be considered slightly above average for Shawnee NF due to slightly increased fuel loads and somewhat extensive south facing aspects over thin soils.

Typical leaf litter in the Johnson Creek area. There is an increasing amount of maple and poplar leaves, increasing the compaction and decreasing depth.

Here a medium-size yellow poplar and a large white oak fell during the May 2009 wind storm. Damage was isolated in most of the project area.

Approximately ½ of the 38 acre pine stand on the eastern edge of the burn would burn as a slash or blowdown fuel model. This stand has an estimated fuel loading of 30-90 tons/acre, since the damage type is similar, and the stand composition, age, and density are similar to stands damaged in the 2006 tornado on Buttermilk Hill that had fuel loads measured in this range. Fire behavior in this stand would be more intense, with torching, spotting, and long flame lengths. The total fuel load is such that the fuel bed would be modeled as a FBPS Fuel Model 13 or SB3; however, most of this loading is skewed towards large and very large fuels (1000- and 10000 hour time lag fuels). Since fine fuel loads are low (1.8 T/A for 1 hour, 1.2 T/A for 10-hour, and 11 T/A for 100 hour), and the slash is somewhat discontinuous, this stand may burn more like a Fuel Model 11 or SB1 or SB2 (Scott and Burgan 2005), especially if the stand does not burn before some fine fuels decay during the growing season of 2010. Computer simulations using BEHAVE 3.0.2 software show flame lengths up to 12.6 feet and rates of spread up to 67.8 chains/ hour during a wildfire “worst case scenario,” far beyond the threshold of requiring indirect attack methods. While fuel/fire hazard is certainly quite elevated within this stand, it does not merit elevating the entire project’s hazard rating, since this stands comprises less than 10% of the project area.

Here needle cast would be the primary carrier of the fire (foreground), while slash is visible in the background.

In some areas blowdown was near total. Such stands may have fuel loads as high as 90 tons/acre.

Fire Occurrence: Fire occurrence has been relatively low on National Forest System (NFS) lands in the area in the past 20+ years (see Fire Occurrence map, Attachment B). Several fires have occurred, including a 6 acre fire in Spring 2010. Large fires are reputed to have occurred on Hogg Hill and further north in Randolph County along the Mississippi River bluffs. Larger fires are known to have occurred on NFS land further south in the county (Shawnee National Forest 2010a). Fires are more frequent on private lands in the area (Ehlers, personal communication).

Values at Risk: While low density rural housing surrounds the project area except on NFS lands to the south and east, the density is not high and vegetation characteristics elsewhere are not uniformly conducive to extreme fire behavior (there is some mesic forest and agricultural lands). The national-level mapping of wildland-Urban Interface and Intermix (WUI), as defined by the SILVIS lab at the University of Wisconsin, is small and scattered (see WUI map, Attachment C). Though there are other values at risk in the area (i.e. cultural and natural resources, crops, recreational facilities, etc), the residences and structures in the project area vicinity are easily the most important for protection.

Risk Rating: Given the location and amount if existing fire breaks (e.g. the lake, streams, roads, trails) the close proximity of fire response units (Ava Volunteer Fire Department – 4 miles north; Mississippi Bluffs RD – ~15 miles southeast), and the low fire occurrence in the area, large fires (>100 acres) are not common in the area and are not expected to become so. However, given the fuel accumulations, relatively high visitor use, and poor access to some parts of the area fires of intermediate size (10-100 acres) would not be unsurprising. Therefore fire risk could be rated as Moderate for the project area.

Fire Regime Condition Class

Fire managers have developed a standardized terminology and a methodology to describe the health, resilience, and integrity of ecosystems, incorporating disturbance, succession, and other ecological concepts. This is called Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC). It is called “Fire Regime Condition Class” to reflect the keystone role fire plays in many ecosystems, but it is meant to include vegetation dynamics, multiple types of disturbance, landscape patterns, and the complex interrelationships of all of these (www.frcc.gov

There have been drastic changes in fire regime over the last 80 years. Most consider oak-hickory forests and woodlands, including those in the project area, to be in Fire Regime I, or subject to frequent (0-35 years), low and mixed severity fires (Schmidt et al 2002, Nowacki and Abrams 2008). Cove hardwoods and other mesophytic systems are considered Fire Regime III, or having infrequent (35-200 years), low and mixed severity fires. As noted earlier, fires in the area are much less common and smaller in extent than they were historically. Mean fire return interval (MFI) has increased by more than a hundred-fold.

). It uses two factors to diagnose departure from reference conditions: 1) Vegetation Composition and Structure, and 2) Changes in fire regime (e.g. Fire Frequency, Extent, and Severity under natural conditions, which include aboriginal use of fire and other disturbances but not Euro-American influences). The degree of departure is known as Condition Class. Condition Class 1 (FRCC 1) means the landscape has vegetation, fuels, and disturbance characteristic of the natural regime. Key ecosystem components are intact. More simply put, it is within the natural or historical range of variability. Condition Class 3 (FRCC 3) indicates a high degree of departure from the reference condition, including departure from vegetation-fuel composition and fire frequency/ severity or both. There is a high risk of losing one or more key ecosystem components. Condition Class 2 (FRCC 2) indicates a moderate degree of departure and a moderate risk of losing key ecosystem components, and is somewhere between FRCC 1 and 3.

There have also been major changes in forest structure. Many early accounts of forest structure suggest that the reference condition for nearly all communities was much more open than is found today. Forests in this area are thought to have three times the amount of trees that they did in the early 19th

Strikingly, there has been a major change in forest species composition in the last several decades. The development of the shade-tolerant midstory and understory in oak-dominated forests has been well-documented (Shotola et al 1992, Haugen 2003).

century, while retaining the same volume (Fralish et al 2002). This means that today’s forests are much denser, yet have smaller trees on average, than those 200 years ago.

About 95% of the project area is in Condition Class 3, or with a high degree of departure from the historic range of variability (see Condition Class Map, Attachment D). This is due to the drastic increase in fire return interval, and decrease in fire extent, and the shifts in the vegetative structure and composition.

While the dominant trees in the stand are oaks, the entire midstory and understory is devoid of them. The shade prohibits their recruitment and restricts the type of plants that can grow there. This stand is Condition Class 3 given the drastic changes in forest structure, composition, and fire frequency.

Here an overstory of small mesophytes indicates past land use that changed the stand from oak-hickory. The understory is a near-impenetrable thicket of multiflora rose and bush honeysuckle. Ecosystem components or processes are at risk of being lost; an example of Condition Class 3.

A small percentage (about 5%) is in Condition Class 2. One area is in a low-lying landscape position that was likely modeled as having had longer fire return intervals than adjacent upland oak-hickory stands. Of course prior to impoundment of the lake this site would have been mid-slope and also oak-hickory, but currently it is serving as wetland or riparian areas. The two other areas of Condition Class 2 are on west or southwest aspects, and one of these has a thinner soil profile, leading to drier conditions. In this case the conversion to mesophytic species has been slowed by the site conditions. On the other site, it was clear cut and replanted to White Pine and Yellow Poplar sometime in the 20th

century. Clearly in this case the model used to define condition class deviates from reality by not considering past land use.

Examples of Condition Class 2. Here the south aspect and/or thin soil have slowed but not stopped mesophytic encroachment. While these areas are dominated by oak, the high stem density and change in fire intervals prevent these sites from being CC1. Note the rock at the surface and abundant white or post oak in several size classes. These sites may have once looked more like glades or woodlands.

Anticipated Effects of the Proposed Action

Fire Hazard/Fire Risk

Fuel Characteristics: A prescribed fire would consume much of the fine fuels (1 hour and 10 hour time lag fuels), and some of the leaf and needle litter. FOFEM modeling indicates fine fuels are more readily consumed under all moisture scenarios as shown in the tables below. In past burns on the Shawnee NF this has frequently ranged from 50 to 90%, rather than the 100% predicted by the software. In some areas on the hottest burns the entire leaf layer was consumed, but this was isolated to small discontinuous areas. Duff is rarely consumed, but this has also happened on a very small scale, such as under large piles of downed wood. FOFEM modeling indicates that even under the heavily damaged pine stand scenario under very dry conditions, duff is not consumed and soil heating does not reach 60° C (the temperature of plant cell mortality) at any depth (Keane et al 2004). Places with continuous oak or southern pine litter would burn the most completely. Area with heavy thickets of multiflora rose, bush honeysuckle, or maple or poplar leaves may barely burn at all if the area is burned under moist or moderate conditions, as the leaves shed by these species do not always make an effective fuel bed. Some jackpots of heavier fuels would consume, but most likely most of the large fuels (coarse woody debris) would be left intact.

Table 1. FOFEM Fuel loading results for hardwood stands under various moisture scenarios. Fuelbed Component Moisture Scenario Litter 1 hr

(0-1/4”) 10 hr

(1/4 to 1”) 100 hr (1-3”)

1000 hr (3”+) Sound

1000 hr (3”+) Rotten Duff

Preburn 3.32 1.29 1.49 3.75 2.59 0.29 1.0 Very Dry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.55 2.14 0.19 1.0 Dry-D2L2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.60 2.23 0.21 1.0 Moderate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 2.36 0.24 1.0 Wet 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.20 2.46 0.26 1.0

Table 2. FOFEM Fuel loading results for damaged pine stands under several moisture scenarios. Fuelbed Component Moisture Scenario Litter 1 hr

(0-1/4”) 10 hr

(1/4 to 1”) 100 hr (1-3”)

1000 hr (3”+) Sound

1000 hr (3”+) Rotten Duff

Preburn 4.30 1.42 1.65 10.05 53.89 2.84 2.14 Very Dry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.00 0.31 2.14 Dry-D2L2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.59 0.39 2.14 Moderate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.96 0.72 2.14 Wet 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.85 1.00 2.14 Note: Dry-D2L2 is the moisture scenario used to compare fire behavior fuel models in Scott and Burgan (2005). The Moderate moisture scenario is closest to normal prescribed burning conditions on the Shawnee NF.

Fire behavior in these fuel beds would be variable depending on the fuel and weather conditions at the time of ignition. Under normal prescribed fire conditions in hardwoods (fuel models TL2 and TL6), forward rates of spread will range from 0.6 to 8.0 chains/hour, while flame lengths may vary from 0.5 to 3.1 feet. Under the hottest prescribed fire prescription, forward rates of spread would range from 2.3 to 10.1 chains/hour, while flame lengths would vary from 1.1 to 3.5 feet. Fire behavior in the damaged pine stand would show a similar relationship. Forward spread rates here are expected to vary from 6.0 to 20.5

chains/hour under normal conditions, but may be as high as 25.9 chains/hour at the hot end of the prescription. Flame length would range from 3.9 to 6.9 feet under normal prescribed fire conditions, but may be as high as 7.9 feet at the hot end of the prescription. Complete fire behavior predictions can be found in Appendix D.

Here fire is backing through a mixed hardwood stand (approximately ½ oak overstory and all mesic midstory and understory) under normal prescribed fire conditions. Flame lengths are ~ ½ to 1 foot.

Here fire is backing through a predominantly oak litter layer under normal prescribed fire conditions. Flame lengths here ~1-2 feet.

Fuel loading, depth, and continuity, reduced in all categories after the initial burn, will increase as new leaf litter, herbaceous fuels, and snags/logs are added to the system (Holden et al 2005). Studies report various rates of litter and fuel influx following burns. Guyette, Muzika, and Dey (2002), Stambaugh et al (2007), and Kolaks et al (2004) all showed litter accumulation in oak stands quickly reaching levels comparable to those before the burn, while total equilibrium reached around 12-17 years. In fact, 50% of preburn levels were reached after 2.5 years (3 growing seasons), while 75% was reached after 4-5 years. Graham and McCarthy (2006) found even faster recovery rates in Ohio. In this case leaf litter depth was rebuilt after one year, but it did not have the same continuity. We have found sufficient leaf fall to carry fire one year after a wildfire on the Shawnee NF (USDA Forest Service 2010b).

After multiple burns Hartman (2004) found significant decreases in herbaceous/ leaf litter fuel and also a slight decrease in 1000-hr sound fuels (except on south slopes), while an increase of 25%, 39%, and 26% in 1-hr, 10-hr, and 100-hr fuels, respectively. The increase of large fuels on south slopes was attributed to greater fire-induced mortality stemming from more intense burning conditions found on that aspect. Stevenson et al (2007) found larger and more frequent basal scars on south and west aspects after prescribed fires.

Each burn would likely top kill most small stems, but only a few larger trees would be killed. As these few stems die, the canopy becomes more open and more subject to the drying effects of sun and wind, and fuel loading increases as trees die and eventually fall. Subsequent burns consume less fuel, but may burn with higher intensity due to the changed microclimate in the understory, and the possible colonization by grassy fuels. An exception would be annual burning, which tends to have reduced intensity because fine, carrying fuels have not had sufficient time to accumulate in loading or coverage (Huddle and Pallardy 1996). By Year 3 or 4 (prior to second burn) indirect effects would become apparent and the project fuel beds would begin to appear similar to current levels. Indirect effects include an increase in fine and coarse woody fuels, followed by a decrease with successive burns (Holden et al 2005).

Fire Occurrence/Fire Risk: While a prescribed fire may not affect fire occurrence, weather, or topography, it would undoubtedly reduce fire risk in the immediate area (but see also Brewer and Rogers 2006). Even an incomplete burn would reduce risk by breaking up the continuity of fine fuels. This would serve as a barrier to a wildfire in the area in the near term (1-2 years), or would reduce the intensity of such a fire in the medium term (2-4 years). After that time frame fine fuels and litter would likely be built back up to at least 75% of pre-burn levels, at which point another burn would be scheduled, which would simulate the effects of the previous burn. The second and third burn may be somewhat different as the fuel bed is somewhat thinner and less compacted each time. This is because the species producing the less combustible leaves are slowly eliminated from the system (see below). Also, more grass or forb fuels may enter the system following each burn, which may serve to increase intensity and decrease severity. Fire Regime Condition Class

Prescribed burning has been shown to change the structure and composition of hardwood stand on the Shawnee NF. Mortality of undesirable species has been achieved in both spring and fall burns on the Shawnee NF, though it sometimes takes one to two years to become apparent. This mortality is typically limited to trees less than about 3” in diameter. Large trees are almost never killed, and if they are it is usually because they were already weakened, had a cat-face or other feature that allowed fire to become established inside the bole, or had heavy fuel accumulations near the base. Mortality of non-native species and mesophytic species shows a direct relationship with fireline intensity and timing; almost all of the more successful burns have occurred at relatively higher intensities, or have occurred during the [beginning or end of] the growing season. Multiple burns have been shown to have an incremental impact. Five burns in 15 years were enough to give a closed canopy oak-hickory forest in Ohio to one with abundant oak seedlings and herbaceous cover and diversity (Hutchinson et al 2005). Similar results have been found in Missouri (Nelson 2007) and in south-central Illinois (Taft 2009). Most authors attribute this to higher burn intensities on subsequent burns because of increase light and wind associated with the reduction of understory and midstory densities and leaf litter depth and coverage.

This site has been burned three times in about eight years. While much of the mesophytic midstory has been eliminated, oak seedlings are still not sufficiently moving into the sapling layer.

This adjacent control site has had no treatments. Note the dense understory and midstory of maple, pawpaw, sassafras, and other species.

Much of the effects of the burn would be dictated by site conditions and past activities in the area. Since low-lying, moist areas will not burn, or will not burn intensely, the vegetation in these areas is not expected to change much. These areas would likely remain FRCC 2. On drier sites (currently FRCC 2), three burns may push these areas towards FRCC1, or at least would maintain them in FRCC2. These areas may have a woodland or glade look. Areas with a minor non-native invasive species infestation or areas that are already treated would improve their condition class or at least maintain it with the application of fire. Areas now dominated by invasive species and mesophytes in upland positions may not improve, since they can be resistant to burning (leaves of these species are not as flammable, can grow in very shady areas, and can be allelopathic so as to eliminate other leaf-producing plants). However, it is possible that at least one of the planned burns may be of sufficient intensity to reduce a substantial amount of these species. An early April burn near the project area in 2009 had sufficient fire intensity to drastically reduce autumn olive, multiflora rose, Japanese honeysuckle, and bush honeysuckles in one part of the burn (Shawnee NF 2010c). The remaining areas of mature oak-hickory forest with advanced midstory and understory encroachment would probably move from FRCC3 toward FRCC2 with the reintroduction of fire due to the elimination of the mesophytic seedling/sapling cohort. This would certainly represent a change in stand structure and composition toward a lower condition class. The project may also increase the oak recruitment, though this is not certain. Some prior burns on the Shawnee NF have shown a marked increase in oak recruitment and its competitive place in the stand (Teutrine, personal communication). Some studies (Alexander et al 2008; Carril 2009) in the region have shown no or marginal increase in oak seedling germination and retention despite achieving the expected mortality in mesophytic competitors in the understory. Though the relative importance of oak seedlings improved in both studies, the authors concluded there was not enough light to meet the optimal growth requirements of the seedling/sapling layer. There was still a bottleneck at the seedling layer after two burns with no other treatments (see cumulative effects below). It is likely that there will not be sufficient oak in the midstory or sapling layer across much of the project area to consider it to be Condition Class 1, and in fact may only improve to a “better” Condition Class 3. Most likely the removal of the mesophytic understory, reduction of some of the mesophytic midstory, and occasional mortality of larger stems would cause most of the project area (that which is oak-hickory dominated) to be considered Condition Class 2.

A burn near the project area significantly reduced invasive species. Note the difference in the foreground (burned) and background (unburned) parts of the photo.

Photo of the same site as the photo at left. The left 2/3 of the photo area burned. Prior to the fire both sites were very similar.

Anticipated Cumulative Effects from the Proposed Action

The spatial boundary of analysis for cumulative effects was the project boundary itself, since vegetation outside this area would not be affected by the project, and would therefore not have any cumulative effects with other projects. The temporal boundary for cumulative impact analysis was chosen to be from the present time to 12 years in the future because this includes the maximum time proposed for the third burn to occur plus two years to allow for the effects of that burn to become apparent.

A number of other projects and activities have occurred, are occurring, or are reasonably likely (foreseeable) to occur within the same spatial and temporal bounds as the project. Some of these, such as road, trail, and campground maintenance, would not have a detectable effect on fuels characteristics or fire regime-condition class of the project area, and so are not further analyzed. Projects that may have a co-occurring effect with the Johnson Creek project on fuels, fire risk, or fire regime condition class are listed below. Projects and activities that occurred in the past are considered part of the baseline and are not analyzed; they are included in Appendix B for reference.

Table 3. Projects or activities that may affect fuels characteristics or Fire Regime Condition Class. Project or Activity Present

Amount Future

Amount Reason for Pertinence

Timber Stand Improvement (TSI) 15 ac/yr ≤ 10 ac/year, est. 100 ac total

Serves to directly remove undesirable midstory and understory trees/change stand structure and composition; may add to fuel load or fire intensity

NNIS Treatments – cutting, spraying, stump treatments, etc

25 ac/yr 15 ac/yr, Entire area as needed

Serves to directly remove undesirable NNIS; may add to fuel load and/or increase flammability of litter bed; affects ecosystem functioning, including fire frequency, intensity

Fire Hazard/Fire Risk

Fuel Characteristics: Prescribed burning in the east often does not cause mortality on all targeted species, especially if these species are larger in diameter. Tree and shrub removal aids in achieving this task by directly removing targeted stems. Timber stand improvement would increase the fuel load on the ground and create ladder fuels in isolated areas (jackpots). Kolaks et al (2004) found that commercial thinning increased total fuel loading about 300%, though litter weight, depth, and fine fuel all decreased due to lack of litter influx. Graham and McCarthy (2006) also found an increase in larger fuels (100 hr, 1000 hr (sound), coarse woody debris) and litter three years after thinning, but a decrease in 1 hr fuels. When thinning was followed by fire, they found increases in these same elements except for litter, indicating that burning did not consume all of the additional fuel created by the thinning operation, except for in fine fuels. Interestingly, there were differences in fuel dynamics based upon topographic location in both studies. Fuel loads in many classes were higher on protected slopes and ridges than exposed slopes. Decomposition rates and fire behavior are both known to be affected by aspect and topographic position, and this might explain the difference. Similarly, removing or killing non-native species may increase the fuel load and thereby increase fire intensity, though this increase would likely be would be less dramatic than that caused by TSI. Herbaceous fuels do not contribute much to fuel loading, and

larger woody pieces from autumn olive or bush honeysuckle constitute a small amount of the on-site fuel mass. These pieces retain higher moisture and decay quickly and seldom burn with great intensity.

There would be a more pronounced impact from these activities because of the indirect effects of additional light and wind reaching the forest floor. This would dry the fuels more and encourage new growth of herbaceous and graminoid fuels. Some of the fine fuel component would shift to a vertical orientation. These effects all may increase fire intensity if a fire should move through. Since in a TSI treatment most large stems are left, this increase is typically modest and less than after a clear cut or blowdown event. Since fires would burn with a higher intensity, fuel reduction can be expected to be slightly higher in areas receiving both TSI and prescribed fire treatments.

Most studies have shown no or minor increases in fire severity following such treatments. The exception occurs when a large pile of wood totally consumes. The high heat output and duration can have more severe effects to soil and biotic resources. However, this is rare in this ecotype and typically large fuels (i.e. coarse woody debris) are left unburned or only partially charred, even with increased fuel loads.

Fire Occurrence/Fire Risk: While the combined effects of prescribed fire, TSI, and NNIS removal may increase the flammability of the fuel bed and increase the amount of time the fuel bed is receptive to new ignitions, it is not clear that fire occurrence would increase. Studies in Missouri (Stambaugh and Guyette 2007) and Kentucky (Maingi and Henry 2006) have both shown climate (mean annual temperature and/or drought) and proximity to roads and populated areas (ignition sources) to be far more strongly correlated to fire occurrence than changes in a fuel bed. It seems logical though that a more flammable fuel bed would spread faster if a fire did enter the area, and would serve to decrease the mean fire return interval for any given acre within that area.

Fire Regime Condition Class

Timber stand improvement would create much of the targeted stand structure and composition immediately. Carril (2009) found that both thinning (analogous to TSI) and burning was required to stimulate germination and growth of oak species at levels that would ensure their continued stand domination on medium quality sites in southern Illinois. Thinning alone or burning alone restored some but not all of the desired stand conditions. Most stems would resprout, initially, but after multiple burns stem density in the understory should be highly diminished except for oak (and sassafras) stems. Stem density in the midstory would be somewhat diminished and approximate the range of historic variability.

Removal of encroaching invasive plants is also important in achieving desired stand conditions. Additional light from TSI would increase their numbers without their removal through mechanical, chemical, and/or burning methods. It would also increase sunlight to the forest floor, increasing decomposition rates, photosynthesis, growth rates, and other factors that affect fuel accumulation and decay and tree growth.

Changes in the understory and midstory vegetation would affect the continuity and drying rate of the fuel bed, rendering it more conducive to burning. This may reduce the MFI and push the project area towards presettlement fire regimes in frequency, if not in extent. Burning as large of blocks as possible would most closely approach the burn size found historically. By Year 12, ecosystem structure and functioning should be reasonably close to presettlement reference conditions, with the possible exception of

ecosystem composition and effects that cannot be regained – interactions between extirpated or extinct species for example. Species lost during the “woody encroachment” era that did not last in the shade or in the seed bank and have not migrated in from other areas may not yet be present, and may never be without more immediate intervention. Given the inherent randomness and heterogeneity of fire effects in a landscape burn, there may be small areas that may have missed one or more burns and would therefore not be considered Condition Class 1. Areas receiving TSI, NNIS removal, and burning would have the stand structure, composition, ecosystem functioning, and fire frequency within the historic range of variability, and would be considered Condition Class 1. Areas receiving only one of these treatments would most likely be Condition Class 2. The low-lying, mesic area currently considered Condition Class 2 would likely remain so since burn effects would be reduced and these areas are not currently slated for TSI treatments. The area of thin soil would likely become Condition Class 1. Areas currently not in a native species mix (pine and black locust plantations, yellow poplar plantations on ridge top positions, etc) may not change condition class without stronger (i.e. silvicultural) interventions. These areas (about 20% of the project area) would remain Condition Class 3, or far departed from reference conditions. Combining all of these treatments, about 25% of the project area would be considered Condition Class 1. The rest of the project would be considered Condition Class 2. The project area as a whole would likely have a composite rating of FRCC 2 at the end of the analysis period.

Scott Crist District Fire Management Officer Revised March 20, 2010

Maps attached:

A – Burn Map, Vegetation Map, Aerial Photo

B – Fire Occurrence

C – Wildland Urban Interface

D – Fire Regime Condition Class

Appendix A – References Cited

Alexander, H.D., Arthur, M. A., Loftis, D. L., and Green, S. R. 2008. Survival and growth of upland oak and co-occurring competitor seedlings following single and repeated prescribed fires. Forest Ecology and Management. 256: pp. 1021-1030.

Andrews, Patricia L.; Bevins, Collin D.; Seli, Robert C. 2004. BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 3.0: User's Guide. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-106WWW. Ogden, UT: Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 132p. Brewer, Stephen; Rogers, Cory. 2006. Relationships between prescribed burning and wildfire occurrence and intensity in pine-hardwood forests in north Mississippi, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 15. 203-211.

Carril, Dennis. 2009. Testing the Effects of repeated prescribed fire and thinning from below on understory components of southern Illinois oak hickory forests. Carbondale, IL: Southern Illinois University at Carbondale. M.S. Thesis. 104 pp.

Ehlers, Doug. Fire Chief, Ava Volunteer Fire Department. Personal communication in March 2010.

Fralish, J. S., Carver, A. D., Anderson, R. C., Thurau, R. G., Sauer, S. L., Ruffner, C. M., Close, D. D., Swigart, R., and E. M. White 2002. Presettlement, present, and projected forest communities of the Shawnee National Forest, Illinois. Report for the USDA Forest Service, Shawnee National Forest, Harrisburg, IL. 145 p.

Graham, J.B.; McCarthy, B.C. 2006. Fuel and fire dynamics in eastern mixed-oak forests. In: Dickinson, Matthew B., ed. 2006. Fire in eastern oak forests: delivering science to land managers, proceedings of a conference; 2005 November 15-17; Columbus, OH. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-1. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 74-89.

Hartman, George. 2004. Changes in fuel loading as the result of repeated prescribed fires within the Ozark forests of Missouri. In: Yaussy, Daniel A.; Hix, David M.; Long, Robert P.; Goebel, P. Charles, eds. Proceedings, 14th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; 2004 March 16-19; Wooster, OH. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-316. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 168-178.

Haugen, David E. 2003. The Forest Resources of the Shawnee National Forest, 1998. Res. Bull. NC-222. St. Paul, MN. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station. 54 p.

Holden; Zachary A.; Morgan, P.; Rollins, M.G.; Wright, R.G.; 2005. Ponderosa pine snag densities following multiple fires in the Gila Wilderness, New Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management (221) 140-146.

Huddle, J.A.; S.G. Pallardy. 1996. Effects of long-term annual and periodic burning on tree survival and growth in a Missouri Ozark oak-hickory forest. Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 82.

Hutchinson, T.F., E. K. Sutherland, and D.A. Yaussy. 2005. Effects of repeated prescribed fires on the structure, composition, and regeneration of mixed-oak forests in Ohio. Forest Ecology and Management 218:210-228.

Keane, B., Reinhardt, E., Brown, J., Gangi, L., 2004. FOFEM Version 5.5 First Order Fire Effects Model. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Laboratory, Missoula, MT.

Kolaks, J.J., Cutter, B.E., Loewenstein, E.F., Grabner, K.W., Hartman, G. Kabrick, J. M. 2004. The Effect of Thinning and Prescribed Fire on Fuel Loading in the Central Hardwood Region of Missouri. In: Yaussy, Daniel A.; Hix, David M.; Long, Robert P.; Goebel, P. Charles, eds. Proceedings, 14th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; 2004 March 16-19; Wooster, OH. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-316. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 168-178.

Maingi, John K.; Henry, Mary C. 2006. Factors influencing wildfire occurrence and distribution in eastern Kentucky. In: Dickinson, Matthew B., ed. 2006. Fire in eastern oak forests: delivering science to land managers, proceedings of a conference; 2005 November 15-17; Columbus, OH. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-1. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 74-89.

Nelson, Paul. 2007. PowerPoint presentation during April 24, 2007 workshop on developing FRCC guidelines for the Mark Twain National Forest. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Eastern Region, Mark Twain National Forest.

Nowacki, G. J.; M. D. Abrams 2008. The demise of fire and “mesophication” of forests in the Eastern United States. BioScience 58 (2): 123-138.

Parker, George and Ruffner, Charles M. 2004 . Current and Historical Forest Conditions and Disturbance Regimes in the in Hoosier-Shawnee Ecological Assessment Area. In The Hoosier – Shawnee Ecological Assessment, Frank R. Thompson III, ed. Gen. Tech. Report. NC-244. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain, Research Station.

Schmidt, K.M, J.P. Menakis, C.C. Hardy, W.J. Hann, and D.L. Bunnell. 2002. Development of coarse-scale spatial data for wildland fire and fuel management. Gen. Tech. Report. RMRS-87. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain, Research Station.

Scott, J.H., Burgan, R.E., 2005. Standard fire behavior fuel models: a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel’s surface fire spread model. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-153, Fort Collins, CO, 72 pp.

Shotola, S.J.; Weaver, G.T.; Robertson, P.A.; and Ashby, W.C. 1992. Sugar maple invasion of an old-growth oak-hickory forest in southwestern Illinois. American Midland Naturalist. 127, pp. 127-138.

Stambaugh, M.C.; Guyette, R.P. 2007. Predicting spatio-temporal variability in fire return intervals using a topographic roughness index. Forest Ecology and Management 254: 463-473.

Stambaugh, M.C.; Guyette, R.P.; Grabner, K.W.; and Kolaks, J. 2006. Understanding Ozark forest litter variability through a synthesis of accumulation rates and fire events. In: Andrews, Patricia A.; Butler, Bret W. comps. Fuels Management – How to Measure Success. Conference Proceedings. 2006 28-30

March. Portland, OR. Proceedings RMRS-P-41. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain, Research Station.

Stevenson, A.P, Muzika, R., and Guyette, R.P. 2008. Fire scars and tree vigor following prescribed fires in Missouri Ozark upland forests. In: Jacobs, Douglass F.; Michler, Charles H., eds. 2008. Proceedings, 16th

Taft, John B. 2009. Effects of overstory stand density and fire on ground layer vegetation in oak woodland and savanna habitats. In: Hutchinson, Todd F., ed. Proceedings of the 3

Central Hardwood Forest Conference; 2008 April 8-9. West Lafayette, IN. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-24. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 525-534.

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Teutrine, Jon. District Fire Management Officer, Shawnee National Forest. Personal communication, March 2010.

fire in eastern oak forests conference. 2008 May 20-22; Carbondale, IL. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-46. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 21-39.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2006. Land and Resource Management Plan – Shawnee National Forest. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Eastern Region. 298 pages.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2009. Record for the Buttermilk Hill – Talbott Hollow Blowdown Project. Shawnee National Forest, Murphysboro IL. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 2010a. Shawnee National Forest Fire Occurrence Database. Shawnee National Forest, Murphysboro IL. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 2010b. Monitoring Report for the Unit 15 Prescribed Fire, Buttermilk Hill – Talbott Hollow Blowdown Project. Shawnee National Forest, Murphysboro IL. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 2010c. Monitoring Report for the State of IL Openlands Burn of April 2009. Shawnee National Forest, Murphysboro IL. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Accessed March 2009.

Appendix B – Past, Present, and Reasonable Foreseeable Future Actions

Table 1. Past, Present, and Reasonably Foreseeable Future Actions or Activities within or around (5th Field Watershed) the Johnson Creek Prescribed Fire Project Area.

ACTION PAST PRESENT REASONABLY FORESEEABLE

PERTINENT OR NOT

Other Prescribed Fires ~50 ac/year Up to 2200 acres/year No

Wildfire <100 ac/year <100 ac/year <100 ac/year No

Trail Reconstruction <1 mile/year <1 mile/year ≤12 miles (≤2 miles/year) No

Road and Trail Maintenance ~30 miles/year ~30 miles/year ~30 miles/year No

Timber Stand Improvement <20 ac/year <20 ac/year <200 ac/year Yes NNIS Treatments ≤50 ac/year ≤50 ac/year <500 ac/year Yes Wildlife Disking/Planting ~75 ac/year ~75 ac/year 50 ac/year No Camping (Developed Sites) 800/year 800/year 1000/year No Hiking (System Trails) ? ? ? No Non-system Trail Use ? ? ? No Special Use Permits 1 1 1 No Gully Stabilization 1 mile 0 6 miles No Shoreline Stabilization 2 miles/year 2 miles/year 1 mile/year No Timber Harvest 20 ac/year 0 0 No Agriculture (Row Crops) ? 0 0 No Agriculture (Pastureland) ? 0 0 No