Johnston County Public SchoolsIntegrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC)

OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYINSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND EDUCATION

CENTENNIAL CAMPUS @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY

FEBRUARY 1 , 2018

Johnston County Public SchoolsBoard of Education and County Commissioners Meeting

February 1, 2018 Outline

Project Team Introduction School Planning Framework Land Use Study for Johnston County Membership Forecast: Student Enrollment through 2027-28 School Facilities Out-of-Capacity Tables Emerging Issues: Q & A and Next Steps

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About OREd

The Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) offers school long-range facility planning and student assignment analyses that are driven by data and supported by Board policy. As a part of the Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) at North Carolina State University, OREd has more than twenty-five years’ experience conducting Land Use Studies, forecasting student enrollment, and providing optimal attendance boundary scenarios.

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2017-18 JCPS IPSAC

Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC)A data-focused membership and utilization forecast, and optimization study for Johnston County Public Schools.

IPSAC Components and Deliverables GIS Analysis/Land Use Studies February 1 Membership Forecasts Out-of-Capacity Analysis School Site Optimization February - March Attendance Zone Optimization

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An Integrated Plan for Schools and Communities:A Planning Approach for Facilities & Transportation

Demographic and Student Enrollment Modeling- Current Enrollment Indicators

- Demographic and Economic Data; Historic Enrollment- Development and Growth Factors

- The Land Use Study (Development Data)- Forecasting for Student Enrollment

Emerging Issues for School Facilities & Transportation- Projected Student Enrollment & Facility Capacity Analysis- Emerging Issues for School Planning Presentation to LEA Leadership

Solutions for School Facilities & Transportation Issues- School Facilities Optimization by Leadership Priorities- School Planning Recommendations to LEA Leadership

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Emerging Issues: School Facilities & Transportation

The Land Use Study (Growth Data)

Demographic & Economic

Data

Forecasting Student

Enrollment

Emerging Issues for School Facilities & Transportation

Facility Capacity Inventory;Out-of-Capacity Analysis

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Land Use Study

Johnston County

Components• Demographics and

Economic Indicators• Transportation• Water / Sewer• Residential Development• Commercial Development• Industrial Development

Indicator Johnston County North CarolinaEstimated Population Change 2010-2016

+13.3% +6.4%

Percentage of Residents Under Age 18

26.0% 22.7%

Percent of Residents Under Age 5 6.4% 6.0%

Percent of Residents Over Age 65 12.9% 15.5%

Percent Racial Minority 31.4% 36.5%

Demographic Statistics

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IndicatorJohnston County

North Carolina

Unemployment Rate (Jul 2017) 4.1% 5.3%

Median Household Income $50,512 (2015)$46,868 (2015)

Persons in Poverty (2015) 13.0% 15.4%Cost of Living 93.3 96.4

Key Trend and Status Indicators

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Company Industry Employment

JOHNSTON COUNTY SCHOOLS Education & Health Services 1000+

JOHNSTON HEALTH Education & Health Services 1000+

GRIFOLS THERAPEUTICS INC Manufacturing 1000+

COUNTY OF JOHNSTON Public Administration 1000+

ASPLUNDH TREE EXPERT CO Professional & Business Services 1000+

NOVO NORDISK PHARMACEUTICAL Manufacturing 500-999

FOOD LION Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 500-999

WAL-MART ASSOCIATES INC Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 500-999

JOHNSTON TECHNICAL INSTITUTE Education & Health Services 500-999

FLANDERS AIRPURE NC DIVISION Manufacturing 500-999

CATERPILLAR INC Manufacturing 500-999

Major Employers in Johnston County (500+)

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Johnston LUS Interview ListJohnston County Position Name

Planning Director Berry GrayPublic Utilities Director Chandra CoatsCounty Manager Rick Hester

City of Clayton Town Manager Adam LindsayPlanning Director David DeYoung

Town of Benson Town Manager Matthew Zapp

Asst Town Mgr / Planner Braston Newton

Town of Archer Lodge Town Mayor Mike GordonPlanning Director Bob Clark

Town of Princeton Town Mayor Donald RainsTown Administrator Marla Ashworth

Town of Wilson's Mills Town Mayor Phillip WrightTown Administrator Alicia Gregory

Johnston County Economic Development Office Director Chris JohnsonBenson Chamber of Commerce President Loretta ByrdClayton Chamber of Commerce President / CEO Dana WootenSmithfield-Selma Area Chamber of Commerce President / CEO Kelly WallaceNCDOT Regional Engineer Ronnie Keeter, PE

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Residential Development: Johnston CountyJohnston County

Development Name RU Approved RU Developed RU AvailableFlowers Plantation P. 1 4453 2542 1911Flowers Plantation P. 2 3337 0 3337Copperline 10 0 10Portofino P. 5 305 68 237McGee's Subdivision 21 0 21Jack Road Tract 25 0 25Sherrill Farm 91 0 91Lowell Mill 38 0 38Caleb Acres 53 0 53Hunter Creek 256 0 256Jordan Ridge P. 4 67 32 35Sherrill Place P. 2 64 0 64Daniel Farm 210 0 210Lassiter Hills 20 0 20Powhatan Road Tract 51 0 51Scottie's Ridge 28 0 28Goodwin Chase 104 6 98Jones Farm 64 0 64South Branch Tract 28 0 28Sanders Tract 50 0 50

Freedom Farms 22 0 22Cades Landing 23 0 23Wake County Line Road 52 0 52Goodwin Chase East 86 0 86Myrtlewood Creek 21 0 21Roberts Road 23 0 23Crantock Road 56 0 56Kirby Marshburn 50 0 50Reese Ridge 52 0 52Parrish Tract 39 0 39River Ridge 73 0 73Three Meadows 37 0 37Wilder Farms 89 0 89Cleveland Bluffs 347 93 254Wellesley 243 0 243Tapestry 99 39 60Beaver Creek 41 0 41Live Oak Church Rd Ph 1 31 0 31Belmont Farms 45 0 45

Totals 10,704 2,780 7,924

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Residential Development: ClaytonClayton

Development Name RU Approved RU Developed RU AvailableArbors at E. Village Apartments 264 192 72Ashcroft 150 13 137Avery Farm 21 0 21Bristol at Cobblestone 260 54 206Brookside 38 0 38East Village Walk 300 10 290Glen Laurel East 139 113 26Gordon Park 177 0 177Highgate 181 0 181Lionsgate 490 311 179Parkview 330 157 173Pines at Glen Laurel Apartments 240 0 240Rhodes Estates 40 6 34Riverwood 1427 1032 395Riverwood Ranch 710 66 644Stallings Mill Apartments 216 22 194Summerlyn 53 28 25Umstead 42 0 42Village at Little Creek 139 0 139Walton Farm at Riverwood 310 0 310Warrick 25 2 23White Oak Landing 47 12 35Winston Pointe 1343 241 1102The Earp Tract 1500 0 1500The York Tract 450 0 450

Totals 8,892 2,259 6,633

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Residential Development: Archer Lodge, Benson, Princeton and Wilson’s Mills

Archer LodgeDevelopment Name RU Approved RU Developed RU AvailableMayfield 20 0 20Wallbourne 28 20 8North Lodge 12 6 6Heritage P. 2 23 19 4Heritage P. 3 28 24 4Heritage P. 4 19 0 19Totals 130 69 61

BensonDevelopment Name RU Approved RU Developed RU AvailableTar Hill Road 185 0 185Affordable Housing Dev 64 0 64Totals 249 0 249

PrincetonDevelopment Name RU Approved RU Developed RU AvailablePine Crest 45 0 45

Wilson's MillsDevelopment Name RU Approved RU Developed RU AvailableParrish Ridge 66 0 66East Hampton 94 0 94Poplar Creek P. 1 40 33 7Poplar Creek P. 2 40 0 40October 16 100 0 100Bobby Murray Tract 350 0 350No Name Tract 300 0 300Totals 990 33 957

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Commercial Development / Revitalization

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Industrial Development

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TransportationCompletion of I-540 Loop

Widen I-40 Between Raleigh (I-440) and Clayton (NC-42)

Widen NC-42

US-70 Interchange Enhancements

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Widen N.C. 42 Between U.S. 70 and N.C. 50

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Water and Sewer: JCPU & Municipal ServiceEntity Water Capacity Wastewater Capacity

Johnston County Public Utilities (JCPU) 13.0 MGD 1.0 MGD

Town of Clayton JCPU 13.0 MGD

Town of Princeton JCPU 0.3 MGD

Wilson’s Mills JCPU JCPU

Archer Lodge JCPU None

Benson Have Own Have Own

Membership Forecast

Resident Live Births

Cohort Analysis

Historic Membership Data

Findings from the OREd LUS

GIS Analysis

2017-18 JCPS Membership ForecastGenerated by Numerix LLC in conjunction with OREd/ITRE

Components of the 2017-18 JCPS K-12 membership forecast:Historic Trends Future Potentials

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Historic TrendsJohnston County Resident Live Births (RLB) continue their upward trend from a low of 2,165 in 2013. There were 2,336 RLB in 2016.◦ RLB are an indicator of future trends in Kindergarten

JCPS has grown by an average of 513 K-12 student since 2012-13◦ JCPS grew by 868 K-12 student this year!◦ Membership data is NC DPI Month-One Average Daily Membership (ADM)

10 out of 13 Cohort Survival Ratios (CSR) are at a maximum this year◦ CSR measures the membership growth by grade/by year ◦ The average CSR (across 13 grades) for 2017-18 is 1.034◦ The RLB to Kindergarten CSR for 2017-18 is 1.15!

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Future Potentials

Expected residential developments as determined by the Land Use Study community interviews are inputs of the forecast model◦ The number of expected units and anticipated build-out timeline

GIS analysis provides high-resolution measures of expected impact◦ Student Generation Potentials can be measured in existing developments and

used to estimate student yields from new developments

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Future PotentialsGIS Analysis:

Track developmentResidential use typeDeveloped or vacantJCPS studentsStudent Generation Potential (SGP)◦ 2017-18 median SGP = 0.45 students

per developed parcel

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Membership Forecast

Resident Live Births

Cohort Analysis

Historic Membership Data

Findings from the OREd LUS

GIS Analysis

2017-18 JCPS Membership ForecastThe JCPS Membership Forecast combines Historic Trends with Future Potentials

Historic Trends Future Potentials

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2017-18 Out-of-Capacity TableVersion: 1/29/2018. See accompanying documents.

PreK ** Month-1 *2017-18 2017-18 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28

ElementaryCooper Academy 500 36 690 702 719 730 756 785 804 829 848 868 882East Clayton ES 740 8 609 616 625 630 643 658 666 677 683 690 695Powhatan ES 886 6 668 674 682 687 697 705 708 713 717 721 724River Dell ES 886 23 1065 1095 1123 1143 1189 1257 1308 1346 1368 1394 1412Riverwood ES 886 13 894 908 929 942 978 1020 1046 1076 1094 1114 1127West Clayton ES 900 12 925 936 952 961 989 1025 1053 1084 1101 1120 1131

Glendale-Kenly ES 586 14 547 557 570 578 596 613 621 631 636 642 646Micro ES 500 2 336 342 352 357 370 383 389 397 402 407 411Pine Level ES 450 20 390 392 397 400 408 419 425 432 436 441 445

Princeton ES 886 15 739 748 760 766 781 794 801 809 813 819 822

Corinth-Holders ES 550 17 604 612 623 630 643 656 662 670 675 680 684Selma ES (K-4) 850 48 763 773 787 795 814 831 840 851 856 863 867South Smithfield ES 600 23 542 546 553 556 565 573 577 582 585 590 593West Smithfield ES 586 13 480 487 498 504 519 534 542 551 556 562 566Wilsons Mills ES 625 6 532 548 569 581 606 635 652 671 681 692 698

Meadow (K-8) 750 599 607 617 624 635 649 658 673 687 695 703Four Oaks ES 1050 26 1089 1095 1106 1115 1140 1176 1194 1213 1223 1233 1239Benson ES (K-4) 586 21 627 638 654 664 685 707 718 730 736 744 748

Cleveland ES 900 24 826 832 843 849 868 889 902 916 925 935 941Dixon Road ES 586 17 586 589 594 597 603 608 610 615 617 621 624McGees Crossroads ES 886 16 892 898 908 914 931 948 957 968 975 982 986Polenta ES 886 17 1081 1088 1100 1107 1124 1142 1152 1163 1169 1176 1181West View ES 886 18 1030 1035 1044 1048 1058 1068 1073 1079 1083 1087 1091

Subtotal - Elementary 16961 395 16514 16718 17005 17179 17599 18075 18359 18677 18866 19076 19220

Month-1 Average Daily Membership ForecastCapacities

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2017-18 Out-of-Capacity TableVersion: 1/29/2018. See accompanying documents.

PreK ** Month-1 *2017-18 2017-18 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28

MiddleArcher Lodge MS 886 1116 1164 1204 1242 1243 1230 1237 1296 1421 1480 1579Benson MS (5-8) 625 489 508 522 535 535 532 534 541 552 555 559Clayton MS 750 583 605 621 637 638 632 635 663 726 757 812Cleveland MS 886 994 1013 1028 1043 1044 1040 1042 1053 1073 1080 1089Four Oaks MS 500 498 534 561 584 585 579 581 593 611 617 624McGees Crossroads MS 886 709 724 736 748 749 745 747 755 768 772 777North Johnston MS 800 649 689 720 745 746 740 743 756 776 783 790Riverwood MS 1186 1224 1283 1329 1369 1370 1359 1364 1404 1482 1518 1575Selma MS (5-8) 550 521 536 546 556 557 554 555 561 569 572 575Smithfield MS 750 585 613 634 652 653 649 650 660 675 680 686Swift Creek MS 800 605 623 640 658 658 653 655 671 697 706 717

Subtotal - Middle 8619 7973 8289 8541 8770 8777 8713 8744 8953 9349 9518 9782

HighClayton HS 2000 1776 1795 1800 1834 1867 1939 2023 2038 2036 2081 2084Cleveland HS 1200 1678 1685 1689 1709 1728 1778 1831 1836 1830 1847 1858Corinth-Holders HS 1200 1919 1938 1943 1989 2038 2118 2210 2226 2224 2266 2269North Johnston HS 850 794 803 808 819 828 848 869 873 868 882 892Princeton (6-12) 1100 984 999 1012 1029 1037 1062 1092 1097 1100 1111 1122Smithfield-Selma HS 1350 1293 1306 1311 1341 1369 1399 1420 1426 1420 1440 1445South Johnston HS 1275 1262 1282 1287 1325 1358 1432 1504 1511 1504 1524 1535West Johnston HS 1600 1423 1428 1433 1449 1466 1512 1559 1563 1558 1573 1583

Subtotal - High 10575 11129 11236 11284 11494 11691 12089 12509 12571 12540 12722 12787

Month-1 Average Daily Membership ForecastCapacities

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System-wide Forecast and CapacityVersion: 1/29/2018.

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2017-18 Utilization TableVersion: 1/29/2018. See accompanying documents.

Month-12017-18 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28

ElementaryCooper Academy 500 -190 -202 -219 -230 -256 -285 -304 -329 -348 -368 -382East Clayton ES 740 131 124 115 110 97 82 74 63 57 50 45Powhatan ES 886 218 212 204 199 189 181 178 173 169 165 162River Dell ES 886 -179 -209 -237 -257 -303 -371 -422 -460 -482 -508 -526Riverwood ES 886 -8 -22 -43 -56 -92 -134 -160 -190 -208 -228 -241West Clayton ES 900 -25 -36 -52 -61 -89 -125 -153 -184 -201 -220 -231

Glendale-Kenly ES 586 39 29 16 8 -10 -27 -35 -45 -50 -56 -60Micro ES 500 164 158 148 143 130 117 111 103 98 93 89Pine Level ES 450 60 58 53 50 42 31 25 18 14 9 5

Princeton ES 886 147 138 126 120 105 92 85 77 73 67 64

Corinth-Holders ES 550 -54 -62 -73 -80 -93 -106 -112 -120 -125 -130 -134Selma ES (K-4) 850 87 77 63 55 36 19 10 -1 -6 -13 -17South Smithfield ES 600 58 54 47 44 35 27 23 18 15 10 7West Smithfield ES 586 106 99 88 82 67 52 44 35 30 24 20Wilsons Mills ES 625 93 77 56 44 19 -10 -27 -46 -56 -67 -73

Meadow (K-8) 750 151 143 133 126 115 101 92 77 63 55 47Four Oaks ES 1050 -39 -45 -56 -65 -90 -126 -144 -163 -173 -183 -189Benson ES (K-4) 586 -41 -52 -68 -78 -99 -121 -132 -144 -150 -158 -162

Cleveland ES 900 74 68 57 51 32 11 -2 -16 -25 -35 -41Dixon Road ES 586 0 -3 -8 -11 -17 -22 -24 -29 -31 -35 -38McGees Crossroads ES 886 -6 -12 -22 -28 -45 -62 -71 -82 -89 -96 -100Polenta ES 886 -195 -202 -214 -221 -238 -256 -266 -277 -283 -290 -295West View ES 886 -144 -149 -158 -162 -172 -182 -187 -193 -197 -201 -205

Subtotal - Elementary 16961 447 243 -44 -218 -638 -1114 -1398 -1716 -1905 -2115 -2259

Capacities Available Seats Based On Month-One Membership and Building Capacity

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2017-18 Utilization TableVersion: 1/29/2018. See accompanying documents.

Month-12017-18 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28

MiddleArcher Lodge MS 886 -230 -278 -318 -356 -357 -344 -351 -410 -535 -594 -693Benson MS (5-8) 625 136 117 103 90 90 93 91 84 73 70 66Clayton MS 750 167 145 129 113 112 118 115 87 24 -7 -62Cleveland MS 886 -108 -127 -142 -157 -158 -154 -156 -167 -187 -194 -203Four Oaks MS 500 2 -34 -61 -84 -85 -79 -81 -93 -111 -117 -124McGees Crossroads MS 886 177 162 150 138 137 141 139 131 118 114 109North Johnston MS 800 151 111 80 55 54 60 57 44 24 17 10Riverwood MS 1186 -38 -97 -143 -183 -184 -173 -178 -218 -296 -332 -389Selma MS (5-8) 550 29 14 4 -6 -7 -4 -5 -11 -19 -22 -25Smithfield MS 750 165 137 116 98 97 101 100 90 75 70 64Swift Creek MS 800 195 177 160 142 142 147 145 129 103 94 83

Subtotal - Middle 8619 646 330 78 -151 -158 -94 -125 -334 -730 -899 -1163

HighClayton HS 2000 224 205 200 166 133 61 -23 -38 -36 -81 -84Cleveland HS 1200 -478 -485 -489 -509 -528 -578 -631 -636 -630 -647 -658Corinth-Holders HS 1200 -719 -738 -743 -789 -838 -918 -1010 -1026 -1024 -1066 -1069North Johnston HS 850 56 47 42 31 22 2 -19 -23 -18 -32 -42Princeton (6-12) 1100 116 101 88 71 63 38 8 3 0 -11 -22Smithfield-Selma HS 1350 57 44 39 9 -19 -49 -70 -76 -70 -90 -95South Johnston HS 1275 13 -7 -12 -50 -83 -157 -229 -236 -229 -249 -260West Johnston HS 1600 177 172 167 151 134 88 41 37 42 27 17

Subtotal - High 10575 -554 -661 -709 -919 -1116 -1514 -1934 -1996 -1965 -2147 -2212

Capacities Available Seats Based On Month-One Membership and Building Capacity

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How Should JCPS Proceed With The Emerging Issues for School Facilities & Transportation?

Consider 1. The Direction, Size and Speed of Enrollment Forecast2. Evaluate Existing Facility Needs, Age and Conditions3. Educational Enrollment Priorities4. Revisit the Strategic and Operational Challenges that JCPS Faces

Solutions for School Facilities and Transportation Issues1. Optimization based on Issues and Priorities (OREd)2. Collaboration Between Johnston County Public Schools BOE and

District Staff to Explore Operational Decisions and Solutions

What to Do With This Information?

Example: Optimal school locations

Next Steps: Optimization

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Questions and Next Steps

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