jonathan nowell a look at the us children's book market
TRANSCRIPT
January 2015
US CHILDREN’S BOOK MARKET
JONATHAN NOWELLNIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT
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AGENDA
Children’s book sales around the world
US children’s Book market
Our big opportunities
… and a challenge
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6.3% 7.6%
-0.1% -1.8%
7.8%
8.1%
12.8%
-2.4%
1.6%
CHILDREN’S BOOK SALES AROUND THE WORLDGlobal growth in Children’s print book market
28.0%*
*Brazil data based on Quarter 3-5 2013 vs Quarter 3-5 2014
9.9%
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2013: THE BEST YEAR TO DATE?
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000Juvenile 2004 – 2013 CAGR: 4%
Source: Bookscan
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2014 WAS EVEN BETTER
Source: Bookscan
Physical Unit Sales in Juvenile Books
12.8% Growth
2013 20140
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
199990000
225567000
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JUVENILE’S BESTSELLERS HAVE GOTTEN BIGGEROverall Bestsellers 2013 (All Categories)
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date 2013 Sales 1 HARD LUCK KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2013 1,825,931 2 INFERNO BROWN DAN DOUBLEDAY BOOKS 5/1/2013 1,400,835 3 KILLING JESUS: A HISTORY O'REILLY BILL HENRY HOLT & COMPANY 9/1/2013 1,111,271
4 PROOF OF HEAVEN: A NEUROSURGEO ALEXANDER EBEN SIMON & SCHUSTER 10/1/2012 935,998
5 THE HOUSE OF HADES RIORDAN RICK DISNEY PRESS 10/1/2013 926,059
6 DIVERGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 2/1/2012 829,770
7 JESUS CALLING: ENJOYING PEACE YOUNG SARAH THOMAS NELSON PUB 10/1/2004 828,531
8 SYCAMORE ROW GRISHAM JOHN DOUBLEDAY BOOKS 10/1/2013 700,241
9 THE THIRD WHEEL KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2012 667,330
10 HAPPY, HAPPY, HAPPY: MY LIFE A ROBERTSON PHIL HOWARD BOOKS 5/1/2013 651,395
11 ALLEGIANT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 10/1/2013 646,482
12 LEAN IN: WOMEN, WORK, AND THE SANDBERG SHERYL KNOPF PUBLISHING GROUP 3/1/2013 628,776
13 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN DUTTON BOOKS 1/1/2012 628,005 14 THINGS THAT MATTER: THREE DECA KRAUTHAMMER C CROWN FORUM 10/1/2013 600,557 15 DOCTOR SLEEP KING STEPHEN SCRIBNER BOOK COMPANY 9/1/2013 564,956 16 THE GREAT GATSBY FITZGERALD F. SC SCRIBNER BOOK COMPANY 10/1/2004 564,630
17 AND THE MOUNTAINS ECHOED HOSSEINI KHALED RIVERHEAD BOOKS 5/1/2013 561,023
18 FIFTY SHADES OF GREY JAMES E. L. VINTAGE BOOKS 4/1/2012 558,046 19 SI-COLOGY 1: TALES AND WISDOM ROBERTSON SI HOWARD BOOKS 9/1/2013 542,219 20 STRENGTHS FINDER 2.0: A NEW AN RATH TOM GALLUP PRESS 2/1/2007 537,987
Source: Bookscan
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BIGGER AND BIGGEROverall Bestsellers 2014 YTD Thru 11/23/2014 (All Categories)
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date YTD Sales 1 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 1,708,169
2 DIVERGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 2/1/2012 1,399,710
3 INSURGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 5/1/2012 1,240,220
4 ALLEGIANT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 10/1/2013 1,083,885
5 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 892,687 6 GONE GIRL FLYNN GILLIAN BROADWAY BOOKS 4/1/2014 846,624 7 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN DUTTON JUVENILE 1/1/2012 781,042 8 THE LONG HAUL KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2014 699,928 9 KILLING PATTON: THE STRANGE DE O'REILLY BILL HENRY HOLT & COMPANY 9/1/2014 685,187
10 LOOKING FOR ALASKA GREEN JOHN SPEAK 1/1/2007 661,012
11 IF I STAY FORMAN GAYLE SPEAK 4/1/2010 651,264
12 FROZEN SAXON VICTORIA RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 600,279
13 MINECRAFT: REDSTONE HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 4/1/2014 597,286
14 THE MAZE RUNNER DASHNER JAMES DELACORTE PRESS BOOKS FOR Y 8/1/2010 588,701
15 MINECRAFT: ESSENTIAL HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 11/1/2013 577,180
16 JESUS CALLING: ENJOYING PEACE YOUNG SARAH THOMAS NELSON PUBLISHERS 10/1/2004 570,855
17 FOUR ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 7/1/2014 552,728
18 FROZEN: JOURNEY TO THE ICE PAL BERRIOS FRANK RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 543,710
19 HARD LUCK KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2013 512,219 20 FROZEN: BIG SNOWMAN, LITTLE SN RABE TISH RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 492,822
Source: Bookscan
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8Source: Bookscan
JUVENILE’S GROWTH IS DRIVING THE INDUSTRY
Overall US Physical Book Market 2012-2014
2012 2013 20140
100000000
200000000
300000000
400000000
500000000
600000000
700000000
Adult Non-Fiction Adult Fiction Juvenile FictionJuvenile Non-Fiction Other
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: -3%
CAGR: 11%
CAGR: -2%
CAGR: 2%
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SHIFTS IN WHERE CHILDREN’S BOOKS ARE BOUGHT
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 20140%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Book clubs/FairsE-tailersChain BookstoresIndie BookstoresMass Merch
Consumer Survey Responses – Location of Book Purchases
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2009-2014, excludes YA.
OPPORTUNITIES
Growth Opportunities
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TABLET USAGE BY CHILDREN’S BUYERS
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2011 through August2014
Which of the following devices do you own?
Q 1 2011
Q 2 2011
Q 3 2011
Q 4 2011
Q 1 2012
Q 2 2012
Q 3 2012
Q 4 2012
Q 1 2013
Q 2 2013
Q 3 2013
Q 4 2013
Q 1 2014
Q 2 2014
Q 3 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
TABLETSMARTPHONEEREADER
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1 - 2 3 - 4 5 - 6 7 - 8 9 - 10 11 - 120%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
19%
29% 30%
13%
7%
2%3%
9%
26%
29%
25%
7%
Child 0-6 Child 7-12
Mean: 4.84 Mean: 7.19
CHILDREN ARE STARTING TO READ E-BOOKS YOUNGER
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall 2014
At What Age Did Your Child Start Reading eBooks?
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SO CHILDREN’S E-BOOK SALES INCREASING …
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2014 thru June
OF CHILDREN'S BOOKS PURCHASED ARE E-BOOKS
21%
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Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2011 thru June 2014.
AND GROWING AT A HEALTHY PACEE-book % Share of Children's Books Purchased
2011 2012 2013 1H 20140%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
7%15% 14%
21%
93%85% 86%
79%
Ebooks Physical
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BUT PRINT BOOKS ARE IMPORTANT
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall 2014
How important are the following media?
Handheld games
Online games
Kid-specific social networks like Club Penguin or Animal Jam
Video game systems
eBooks
Mobile apps
Children's magazines
Video streaming services such as Hulu or Netflix
Board games
Cable or broadcast television
Children's DVDs
Educational Websites
Print books
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
3.9
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.3
5.1
5.8
5.6
7.2
5.1
5.3
5.0
5.7
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.9
5.6
6.1
7.0
7 or older6 and under
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Source: Bookscan
PHYSICAL FORMATS ARE GROWING, BUT BOARD BOOKS
SOARChildren’s Physical Sales by Format Q4 2013 – Q3 2014
Trade Paperback Hardcover Board Book Boxed Set MM Paperback Other -
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
22% CAGR
9% CAGR
9% CAGR
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JUVENILE FICTION BY SUB-CATEGORY
Source: Bookscan
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
Unit Volume by BISAC Category Q4 2011 – Q3 2014
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JUVENILE NON-FICTION BY SUB-CATEGORY
Source: Bookscan
Unit Volume by BISAC Category Q4 2011 – Q3 2014
Activity Books
Animals Biography & Auto
Games & Activities
Concepts Science & Nature
Religion History Study Aids Language Arts
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2011-2012 2012-2013
2013-2014
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Magic Tree Housein JNF History
POPULAR BRANDS PERMEATE MANY CATEGORIES
Star Wars in JNF Crafts and Hobbies
Disney Princesses in JNF Cooking
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CHARACTERISTICS OF JNF BUYERS
Source: Nielsen Books and Consumers, 2013 and 2014 thru May per PubTrack Books and Consumers. Survey does not include buyers less than 13 years of age. Percentages reflect % share of JNF Buyers, Indices are % JNF/ % all US book buyers * 100
No Children Any Children <3 Yrs
Any Children 3-5 Any Children 6-12 Any Children 13-17
42%
13% 13%
33%29%
Approximately 27% of JNF books purchased are by adults with no children and not as gifts.
15% OF JNF BOOKS PURCHASED WERE GIFTS
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Source: Bookscan
THE RISE OF YOUNG ADULT BESTSELLERS# Title Author Imprint Pub Date 20111 THE HUNGER GAMES COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 7/1/2010 1,577,952 2 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID 6: CABIN KINNEY JEFF ABRAMS 11/1/2011 1,563,302 3 CATCHING FIRE COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 9/1/2009 985,174 4 INHERITANCE PAOLINI CHRISTOPHER ALFRED A. KNOPF BOOKS FOR YOUN 11/1/2011 900,145 5 MOCKINGJAY COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 8/1/2010 853,314 6 THE SON OF NEPTUNE BK 02 RIORDAN RICK HYPERION BOOKS 10/1/2011 698,563 7 THE KANE CHRONICLES, THE, BOOK RIORDAN RICK HYPERION BOOKS 5/1/2011 534,605 8 THE UGLY TRUTH KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2010 523,966 9 ELF ON THE SHELF AEBERSOLD CAROL V. CCA & B 12/1/2006 499,568
10 THE WIMPY KID DO-IT-YOURSELF B KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 5/1/2011 487,814 11 RODRICK RULES KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 2/1/2008 338,324
12 GOODNIGHT MOON BROWN MARGARET WISE HARPERFESTIVAL 8/1/1991 329,107
13 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 4/1/2007 309,087 14 THE HEROES OF OLYMPUS, THE, BO RIORDAN RICK HYPERION BOOKS 10/1/2010 294,421 15 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LAST KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 1/1/2009 288,874 16 AWAKENED CAST P. C. ST. MARTIN'S GRIFFIN 1/1/2011 285,412 17 GREEN EGGS AND HAM: 50TH ANNIV DR SEUSS RANDOM HOUSE CHILDREN'S BOOKS 8/1/1960 282,374 18 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID #4 - DOG KINNEY JEFF ABRAMS 10/1/2009 273,985 19 OH, THE PLACES YOU'LL GO! DR SEUSS RANDOM HOUSE CHILDREN'S BOOKS 1/1/1990 261,923 20 THE HUNGER GAMES TRILOGY BOXED COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 8/1/2010 254,560
Top 20 Juvenile Titles – 2011
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Source: Bookscan
THE RISE OF YOUNG ADULT BESTSELLERSTop 20 Juvenile Titles – YTD thru Week 48 2014
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date YTD Sales1 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 1,732,157 2 DIVERGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 2/1/2012 1,403,653 3 INSURGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 5/1/2012 1,249,813 4 ALLEGIANT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 10/1/2013 1,092,487 5 THE LONG HAUL KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2014 921,742 6 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 897,941 7 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN DUTTON JUVENILE 1/1/2012 783,135 8 LOOKING FOR ALASKA GREEN JOHN SPEAK 1/1/2007 672,344 9 IF I STAY FORMAN GAYLE SPEAK 4/1/2010 667,870
10 FROZEN SAXON VICTORIA RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 629,080 11 MINECRAFT: REDSTONE HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 4/1/2014 612,832 12 THE MAZE RUNNER DASHNER JAMES DELACORTE PRESS BOOKS FOR YOUN 8/1/2010 601,700 13 MINECRAFT: ESSENTIAL HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 11/1/2013 594,709 14 FOUR ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 7/1/2014 567,431 15 FROZEN: JOURNEY TO THE ICE PAL BERRIOS FRANK RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 564,756 16 HARD LUCK KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2013 525,303 17 FROZEN: BIG SNOWMAN, LITTLE SN RABE TISH RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 511,098 18 PAPER TOWNS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 9/1/2009 504,535
19 FROZEN: A TALE OF TWO SISTERS LAGONEGRO MELISSA RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 486,328
20 FROZEN: THE JUNIOR NOVELIZATIO NATHAN SARAH RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 455,842
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THE RISE OF YOUNG ADULT BESTSELLERSCount of YA ISBNs in Bookscan Juvenile Bestselling Top 20 –
2006 thru 2014
Source: Bookscan
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
2
4
6
8
10
12
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OF YOUNG ADULT BOOKS AREBOUGHT BY ADULTS FOR THEMSELVES
80%Y A
ADULTS ARE HEAVY YA READERS
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, Spring 2014.
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TEENS THAT READ FOR FUN
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall2014
Fall 11 Spring 12 Fall 12 Spring 13 Fall 13 Spring 14 Fall '140%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
79% 81% 78%
70%
59% 62%66%
Read for fun
On the rise after a dip in 2013
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I strongly prefer eBooks
I generally prefer eBooks
I have no preference I generally prefer print, books but are
open to eBooks
I strongly prefer print books
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
6%
15%
28%
34%
17%
6%
15%
30%31%
19%
6%
12%
28%30%
24%
Fall 13 Spring 14 Fall 14
WHAT FORMAT DO TEENS PREFER?
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall 2013-Fall 2014.
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UK 34%
Children's
Other genre
CHILDREN’S SHARE OF OVERALL PRINT BOOK MARKET
US 37%
Children's/Juvenile
Other genre
China 18%
Children's
Other genre
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FROM ONLINE STARDOM TO RECORD BOOK SALESEngaging teen readers through YouTube stars
Nielsen BookScan/YouTube/Nielsen Books & Consumers UK
6.6million subscribers90k copies globally in debut week
3.4million subscribers163k copies YTD
63% of book-buyers aged 16-19 in the UK are active YouTube
users.
UPCOMING
3.6millionsubscribers
6.4millionsubscribers
4.1millionsubscribers
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WHERE DO BOOKS RANK FOR DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS?
Base: all 0-17s Weekly participation; with exception of YouTube, images are examples to illustrate type of activity, e.g. football represents sport
14-175-7 8-10 11-130-4
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Children’s is doing GREAT
• Growth is driven by many different areas and strategies
• YA Series & Media tie-ins upending traditional patterns
• Some growth driven by adult consumers “for self”
• Child is THE MOST important influencer
• Rights growth in China
• Traditional wisdom no longer applies
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OUR BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS …
Base: all 0-17s Weekly participation; with exception of YouTube, images are examples to illustrate type of activity, e.g. football represents sport
14-1711-13
